UK Politics: The Beast From The East

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

17 hours ago, Werthead said:

There has been a lot of bafflement as to why Russia did this now. It's been pointed out that spy-swaps and exchanges are routine and a commonly-accepted mitigating factor in international espionage: you know that if you're captured, you're probably not going to get dropped off a pier in concrete boots but will kept incarcerated and then swapped when convenient. It's pretty standard stuff.

Putin killing this dude years (and it's been almost a decade) after he was released, by Russia, endangers that international norm: it means that future agent swaps will be endangered and Russia may find it harder to recruit agents if they feel the swap system has been abandoned. It's also illogical that Russia would kill this guy brazenly in broad daylight in a foreign country rather than doing so when he was in an actual Russian jail where he could have disappeared much more quietly.

The counter-arguments are strong, however: that Putin wants to send a message that you're never out of his reach, no matter how much time has passed, and also that Russia can do what it wants, when it wants, with nothing but a token reaction (which is proving accurate so far).

The alternative possibility, of a rogue actor in the Russian intelligence community settling a grudge, has also not been disproven, although not particularly supported so far either.

I can think of four motivations, assuming this was done by the Russian state:

1). They were specifically targeting the UK and trying to send them a message. I’m not entirely sure why they’d do this, and it seems risky, but it’s a possibility.

2). They were probing how NATO would respond to an attack on one of its allied states. This seems totally plausible.

3). More specifically, they were probing how Trump would respond. This makes even more sense, especially if you believe that they have dirt on him and are blackmailing him.

4). They were sending a message to people like Mueller and Steele that they can kill intelligence officers in public who are trained to always have one eye over their shoulders. Hard to know if this is the reason why they did it, but it certainly could have a chilling effect.

[Maithanet]

16 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

4). They were sending a message to people like Mueller and Steele that they can kill intelligence officers in public who are trained to always have one eye over their shoulders. Hard to know if this is the reason why they did it, but it certainly could have a chilling effect.

I must say the headline of "Mueller Found Dead of Apparent Suicide" is terrifying.  On a whole host of levels. 

[Fragile Bird]

I wanted to ask Spockydog if he had become a Russian troll recently, after reading the doubts about the nerve gas use being done by the Russians. But I just saw a Guardian story saying the rumored thinking by security forces was the nerve gas was planted in the daughter’s suitcase back in Russia. I wonder if she may even have been blackmailed into carrying it. Or worse, volunteered for the job.

[Spockydog]

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

The latest conspiracy theory is that the Salisbury poisoning was carried out by our security services to distract attention from Telford.

It would appear that nobody outside of the anti-Muslim community cares about Telford. This is the first time I'm hearing about it myself. Children are sexually abused on an industrial scale in this country, and nobody seems to give a fuck. Just ask William Hague. 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I must say the headline of "Mueller Found Dead of Apparent Suicide" is terrifying.  On a whole host of levels. 

And worse, it’s not unrealistic, though I think it’s more likely to see the headline “Mueller Dies In Accidental Car Crash.”  

Also, I believe I’ve seen it reported that several people have died who are linked to the Steele dossier and the Mueller investigation.

[Spockydog]

7 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I wanted to ask Spockydog if he had become a Russian troll recently, 

Really? Just because I'm not willing to blindly accept the establishment line on this, I'm a Russian troll? That's the single most ridiculous thing I've read on this board since I started coming here.

 

[mormont]

I wouldn't assume people don't care about Telford. It's one of those cases where there's simply no real discussion to be had, unless we all line up to say one after another how absolutely appalled we are. 

[Shryke]

9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And worse, it’s not unrealistic, though I think it’s more likely to see the headline “Mueller Dies In Accidental Car Crash.”  

Also, I believe I’ve seen it reported that several people have died who are linked to the Steele dossier and the Mueller investigation.

The Russians cleaned house once the election was done. A bunch of suspicious deaths.

More likely though, if Putin was sending any message to the US, it was to guys like Manafort thinking of flipping and not to the actual prosecutors.

One should never make the mistake of forgetting this all might be for domestic consumption though. We can all have a habit of thinking of countries we don't know well or are unfriendly with as a monolith with a singular goal the leader embodies but they have complex internal lives and power struggles too.

[Fragile Bird]

52 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Really? Just because I'm not willing to blindly accept the establishment line on this, I'm a Russian troll? That's the single most ridiculous thing I've read on this board since I started coming here.

 

I should have put a laughing emo beside that, sorry!  This one 

I did notice your deleted nvm comment too!

[Spockydog]

I am a one-man Russian sleeper cell. After lying dormant for six years my time has finally come.

 

 

[Fragile Bird]

1 minute ago, Spockydog said:

I am a one-man Russian sleeper cell. After lying dormant for six years my time has finally come.

 

 

You know what they say, every dog will have it's day!

[Spockydog]

1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

You know what they say, every dog will have it's day!

Woofski!

[Mr Fixit]

2 hours ago, Spockydog said:

Really? Just because I'm not willing to blindly accept the establishment line on this, I'm a Russian troll? That's the single most ridiculous thing I've read on this board since I started coming here.

 

You must not have been here very long then. Everyone with an ounce of unorthodox thought is a Russian troll around here, didn't you know?

[Pebble thats Stubby]

32 minutes ago, Mr Fixit said:

You must not have been here very long then. Everyone with an ounce of unorthodox thought is a Russian troll around here, didn't you know?

I thought everyone was a Secret Targ.

[Martell Spy]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

And worse, it’s not unrealistic, though I think it’s more likely to see the headline “Mueller Dies In Accidental Car Crash.”  

Also, I believe I’ve seen it reported that several people have died who are linked to the Steele dossier and the Mueller investigation.

Hopefully Olliver Stone gets to make this movie. It is about the the only recompense we will get for living through this.

[Spockydog]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Also, I believe I’ve seen it reported that several people have died who are linked to the Steele dossier and the Mueller investigation.

Had a quick google, but couldn't find anything related to this. Have you got any further information/links? 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 hours ago, Spockydog said:

Had a quick google, but couldn't find anything related to this. Have you got any further information/links? 

Haven't found one that discusses multiple deaths, but here's this:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fusion-gps-lawyer-somebodys-already-been-killed-because-trump-dossier-published/

[Spockydog]

Well fuck me sideways. A BBC Newsnight panel featuring Jenni Rusell and Rachel Johnson has just agreed that Jeremy Corbyn was badly treated by the British media this week and was correct to insist on proof before escalating the situation with Russia.

 

[Spockydog]

45 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Haven't found one that discusses multiple deaths, but here's this:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fusion-gps-lawyer-somebodys-already-been-killed-because-trump-dossier-published/

Doesn't look like anything to me.

[Spockydog]

For a news organization such as the BBC, this is disgraceful.