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US Politics: Stormy Weather Ahead


Fragile Bird

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4 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Well, they are agreeing with half of what the intelligence community said months ago, that the Russians interfered with the elections, but not that second half, that they were targeting Clinton and developed a preference for Trump. Instead they say that there is no evidence of collusion. 

That's a big goddamn distinction.

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1 hour ago, Shryke said:

Right on queue for that last point:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/12/politics/house-republicans-russia-conclusions/index.html

Half y'alls political parties are actual traitors.

Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee reached an opposite conclusion Monday from the intelligence community they oversee, announcing that Russian President Vladimir Putin was not trying to help Donald Trump win the 2016 election.

The Republicans also said they found no evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia and that they are shutting down their yearlong investigation.

I'm sure they'll also conclude the following:

  • Clinton emailed Russia, asking them to collude, but Putin didn't and Clinton should be locked up.
  • Obama secretly conspired with Putin to make this media storm.
  • The Democrats were all working with the liberal media to undermine Trump as they can't hack losing the election.
  • Obama is a cry-baby, a fascist and probably a child-molester, except not a good one like Roy Moore.
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Stormy offers Trump a deal, will he take it?

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Under Mr. Avenatti’s offer, Ms. Clifford would then be allowed to “(a) speak openly and freely about her prior relationship with the president and the attempts to silence her and (b) use and publish any text messages, photos and/or videos relating to the president that she may have in her possession, all without fear of retribution and/or legal liability for damages.”

 

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28 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said:

Stormy offers Trump a deal, will he take it?

Considering what he really wants is for her to stay quiet, I highly doubt it.  Getting back $130k is, like, 10% of an average emoluments clause violation for Trump.

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I wonder if this was what they were trying to get ahead of with this sudden shutdown:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/papadopoulos-says-trump-personally-encouraged-arrange-meeting-putin-new-book-reports-010056370.html

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George Papadopoulos, a former foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign and potentially a key witness in special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe, told federal investigators that before the election, Donald Trump personally encouraged him to pursue a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a new book being published Tuesday.

Papadopoulos’s account to Mueller — as reported in “Russian Roulette: The Inside Story of Putin’s War on America and the Election of Donald Trump,” by Yahoo News’ Michael Isikoff and Mother Jones’ David Corn — contradicts the public accounts of what took place at a critical meeting of Trump’s foreign policy team on March 31, 2016. It was at that meeting that Papadopoulos first informed Trump and the then candidate’s other foreign policy advisers that he had contacts in Britain who could arrange a summit between the GOP candidate and Putin.

Although one of the campaign officials present, J.D. Gordon, has said the idea was shot down by then Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions, Papadopoulos told Mueller’s investigators that Trump encouraged him, saying he found the idea “interesting,” according to the book, which cites sources familiar with his questioning by Mueller’s investigators.

Trump looked at Sessions, as if he expected him to follow up with Papadopoulos, and Sessions nodded in response, the authors write.


 

 

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1 hour ago, Yukle said:
1 hour ago, Yukle said:
  3 hours ago, Shryke said:

Right on queue for that last point:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/12/politics/house-republicans-russia-conclusions/index.html

Half y'alls political parties are actual traitors.

Quote

 

Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee reached an opposite conclusion Monday from the intelligence community they oversee, announcing that Russian President Vladimir Putin was not trying to help Donald Trump win the 2016 election.

The Republicans also said they found no evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia and that they are shutting down their yearlong investigation.

I'm sure they'll also conclude the following:

  • Clinton emailed Russia, asking them to collude, but Putin didn't and Clinton should be locked up.
  • Obama secretly conspired with Putin to make this media storm.
  • The Democrats were all working with the liberal media to undermine Trump as they can't hack losing the election.
  • Obama is a cry-baby, a fascist and probably a child-molester, except not a good one like Roy Moore.

Did anyone actually think the House Intel committee would some to any other conclusion?

Also it seems Trump is standing up to the NRA so that he can walk back is gun control promises, and then sit back down and continue to sup on the NRA's generous donations.

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Not really US politics per se, but of some concern for those who think globalization gone and done badly is a threat to left wing parties, a boon to right wing nationalist, and a threat to globalization itself.

The Euro right now is a flamin’ disaster and needs reform.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/12/how-the-euro-is-helping-europes-far-right-fascists/

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European politics has turned into a Greek tragedy.

The very thing that was supposed to stop the type of virulent nationalism that tore the continent apart in the 1930s from ever coming back — the European Union — is a big part of why it's starting to do so today. It's bad in post-communist states like Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, but it's especially hopeless in the ones that use the euro. That's because the common currency has kept some of them from growing, and all of them (other than maybe Germany) from controlling their own economic destinies. That's a toxic combination. It has made politics go from being a debate, among other things, about how much to tax or spend into one that's entirely about who belongs and who doesn't.

 

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Empowering xenophobes wasn't exactly what the E.U. had in mind when it set out on its goal of “ever closer union” 60 years ago. The idea of Europe was supposed to cure, or at least temper, nationalism, not cause it. But it won't work as long as they make it impossible for the center-left to offer up an alternative vision to the far-right other than doing what Brussels says in the most efficient way possible.

That's a pretty big oops.

Maybe the Davos crowd could try to fix this. But, you know they will talk about “multi stake holder solutions” and such.
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More on globalization done badly:

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-tariffs-trade-gimmickry-by-dani-rodrik-2018-03

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US President Donald Trump’s bark on trade policy has so far been far worse than his bite. But this may be changing. In January, he raised tariffs on imported washing machines and solar cells. Now, he has ordered steep tariffs on imported steel and aluminum (25% and 10%, respectively), basing the move on a rarely used national-security exception to World Trade Organization rules.

 

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Another contrast with the Reagan-era measures is that we are living in a more advanced stage of globalization, and the problems that have accompanied it are greater. The push for hyper-globalization in the 1990s has created a deep division between those who prosper in the global economy and share its values, and those who do not. As a result, the forces of nationalism and nativism are probably more powerful than at any time since the end of World War II.

 

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But it is in the domestic arena that the bulk of the work needs to be done. Repairing the domestic social contract requires a range of social, taxation, and innovation policies to lay the groundwork for a twenty-first-century version of the New Deal. But with his corporate tax cuts and deregulation, Trump is moving in the opposite direction. Sooner or later, the disastrous nature of Trump’s domestic agenda will become evident even to his voters. At that point, an old-fashioned trade war may seem irresistible, to provide distraction and political cover.

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Yes, "The Crapo Bill" is an appropriate name.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/06/opinion/democrats-trump-dodd-frank.html

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This week, the Senate begins debate on the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief and Consumer Protection Act, known as the Crapo bill for its primary sponsor, Mike Crapo, a Republican senator from Idaho. The bill would roll back or eliminate parts of the Dodd-Frank Act.

The Crapo bill is unusual in today’s hyperpartisan environment: It has over 10 Democratic co-sponsors, many from swing or red states and up for re-election this year — like Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Jon Tester of Montana and Claire McCaskill of Missouri — making its passage possible.

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For the conservative asset mispricing concern trolls and the Poor Savers! crowd.

https://voxeu.org/article/new-take-low-interest-rates-and-risk-taking

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The impact of low interest rates on financial markets has been a central issue in recent years, as central banks in many countries reduced rates to historical lows (Bernanke 2013, Stein 2013, Rajan 2013, Powell 2017). A widely discussed question is whether such low interest rates may induce a greater appetite for risk taking in financial markets, which is often referred to as ‘reaching for yield’ or the ‘risk-taking channel’ of monetary policy. This question is of considerable interest to policymakers, researchers, and investors. The Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), for instance, identified “search for yield in a low interest environment” as one of the top ten risks in its 2017 supervisory agenda.

For what is obvious reasons, I've never been really impressed by the EMH story along with many other lefties. It certainly doesn't hold in all times and all places. For a long time the left has been skeptical of this story. Now conservatives seemingly only get skeptical, depending on who is office (or when they want to blame for minorities for financial crises). So now that Republican guy is office, I'm sure they will go right back into believing in it.

Anyway, for a long time, a lot of Keynesian sorts of people willing to give up a lot to pure monetarist types, agreeing that monetary policy could get the job done. But, after the GFC, I think there is a lot less willingness to concede as much as to monetarist types. The point is this: If too low interest rates can help to create financial instability, there is a fairly straight forward solution: Issue more safe interest bearing assets.

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The libertarians aren't going to like this but...........................

https://voxeu.org/article/publicly-funded-applied-research-pays-case-fraunhofer-gesellschaft

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Governments invest in public applied research institutions in the hope of transferring scientific knowledge to industry and thus boost private innovation. But do these investments actually pay off? This column presents results from the Horizon 2020 FRAME project, in which the activities of Germany’s leading applied research organisation, the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, were analysed. When firms collaborate on research projects with Fraunhofer, they do significantly better in terms of growth, productivity, as well as innovation. Furthermore, the macroeconomic benefits of Fraunhofer appear to outweigh its costs.

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Thanks NRA! You fucked everyone! Good Job! Good one!

Ya did a heck of a job there Browny!

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/28/17058236/gun-control-research-parkland-shooting

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Several ideas have surfaced in Washington since the high school shooting in Parkland, Florida, that killed 17 people. Among them: raising the legal age for purchasing assault rifles from 18 to 21, improving the national background check system, and, from President Donald Trump, arming teachers.

Some of them could help. Others might actually make things worse. Unfortunately, we have little evidence about what would actually reduce gun violence and mass shootings like the one in Parkland.

 

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We don’t know much beyond that. Congress has made it effectively impossible for federally funded researchers to study gun violence. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health are the gold standards for public health research in the United States. But they are effectively barred from studying a problem that kills more than 35,000 people in a year.

 

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To make matters worse, Congress perpetuates a status quo that makes it difficult for researchers to even begin to quantify which policies would actually lead to fewer Americans dying violent deaths.

 

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But there is more or less a federal prohibition on government dollars being spent on public health research about firearms.

It is known as the Dickey Amendment, first approved by Congress in the 1990s. Its effective ban on federal taxpayer money being spent on research that could lead to gun control has since spread from the CDC to the NIH, the federal agencies primarily tasked with protecting the public health. As Vox’s German Lopez wrote back in 2015:

Should be called the Dick Amendment as it was supported by a bunch of dicks.

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I hope he's right.

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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) says in a new interview that he expects to see Republicans lose seats in the House and Senate this year as the party pushes to retain its majorities in Congress ahead of the 2018 midterm elections.

The top Republican in the Senate told The New York Times for a story published Saturday that "the odds are" his party will face losses in both chambers of Congress this year.

“The odds are that we will lose seats in the House and the Senate,” McConnell said.

“History tells you that, the fired-up nature of the political left tells you that. We go into this cleareyed that this is going to be quite a challenging election," he added.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/374400-mcconnell-gop-expects-to-lose-house-senate-seats-in-midterms

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8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Did anyone actually think the House Intel committee would some to any other conclusion?

Also it seems Trump is standing up to the NRA so that he can walk back is gun control promises, and then sit back down and continue to sup on the NRA's generous donations.

I (naively, I admit) thought that the GOP members of the committee would stall the investigation from reaching any meaningful conclusions until after the midterm elections to avoid shredding any semblance of credibility/neutrality on this issue that they have with the general populace, as opposed to their base. Then, if they retained the majority, they could end the investigation with their seats safe for another term, or if they lost the majority, they could put the onus of the investigation and its conclusion on the Democrats and smear it as a partisan witch hunt. 

Obviously, I was wrong, heh. 

There are multiple potential explanations for this move, all speculative right now. One is that the move is just short sighted and nothing else. That's always an option with the GOP. Another is that the White House is aware of just how bad the Mueller investigation is looking for the President and has been ramping up pressure on the Committee to new levels to end the HIC's investigation, in order to lay the groundwork for dismantling the Special Prosecutor's investigation. 

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3 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Well Rex Tillerson is out, Pompeo is in.

Wut?

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Rex Tillerson is out as secretary of State, ending a tumultuous tenure as America's top diplomat that was marked by a series of public disagreements with his boss — President Donald Trump.

Trump plans to appoint CIA Director Mike Pompeo to replace the former Exxon Mobil chief executive. The president picked deputy CIA Director Gina Haspel to run the spy agency.

The Washington Post first reported the news, which the president quickly confirmed in a tweet. Trump thanked Tillerson for his service and said Pompeo will do a "fantastic job."

Also, Trump appoints a woman to head the CIA.

 

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I don't really follow US politics so I don't really know.

Why was Tillerson Sacked?

Does it have something to do with the support he has publicly give Britain over the Russian Nerve agent?  Or is it just the timing that looks so suspect?


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43381880

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US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said it appeared the "really egregious act... clearly came from Russia" and there should be "serious consequences".

Mr Tillerson, who spoke to Mr Johnson on the phone about the case on Monday, said the US supported the UK's assessment that Russia was likely responsible.

He added: "We agree that those responsible - both those who committed the crime and those who ordered it - must face appropriately serious consequences.

"We stand in solidarity with our allies in the United Kingdom and will continue to coordinate closely our responses."

 

 

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"Quick, let's fire a lot of random employees today, and maybe people will forget to go out and vote in PA18!"

President Trump's personal assistant was fired Monday, The Wall Street Journal reported.

John McEntee on Monday was escorted out of the White House, according to two senior administration officials.

He was escorted from the White House because of an "unspecified security issue," the Journal reported, citing a third White House official.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/378078-trumps-personal-assistant-john-mcentee-fired-from-role-report

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18 minutes ago, Pebble said:

I don't really follow US politics so I don't really know.

Why was Tillerson Sacked?

Does it have something to do with the support he has publicly give Britain over the Russian Nerve agent?  Or is it just the timing that looks so suspect?


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43381880

 

He doesn’t know. He was told he was fired on Friday so before his comments yesterday. Tillerson was a horrendous SOS who destroyed the State Dept so he can go fuck off but I fear Pompeo and what comes next, especially if he’s in line with Trump.

 

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20 minutes ago, Pebble said:

I don't really follow US politics so I don't really know.

Why was Tillerson Sacked?

Does it have something to do with the support he has publicly give Britain over the Russian Nerve agent?  Or is it just the timing that looks so suspect?


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43381880

 

No. It sounds like he was informed that he was getting canned last Friday, so he felt free to say what he really believed about the situation.

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