US Politics: Stormy Weather Ahead

[Yukle]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Eh, I'm of the opinion that the Republican party was already coming apart, and that Trump's victory is only delaying the inevitable. It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if Clinton had won. 

Whatever you think of them, it seems their model of politics is winning.

https://images.dailykos.com/images/362596/story_image/State_Legislatures.png?1486423946

It's slightly out of date, but considering they have all of the Federal levers of power, they also control the overwhelming majority of states. And their latest control of legislatures came just as computer algorithms could be used to gerrymander better than ever before. So their power will be very hard to break.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, Yukle said:

Maybe Trump just gets off on firing people. That was, after all, the only real part of The Apprentice. People have pointed out, after working on the show, he didn't actually own much any more, having been bankrupt so many times. He would hire you to do not much at all, same as him. He just got a thrill from saying, "You're fired!" Much as he did on the campaign trail.

I sometimes wonder if, no matter what, he will end up firing a staff member for whatever invented reason because it's such a power trip for him.

Just the opposite. It's been well documented that he's a gutless coward when it comes to firing people, especially in person. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

So we've got 75 mins till the polls close. Time to make your predictions. 

Lamb +3

[Yukle]

I'm going to be hesitant... it seems that there isn't much of a recent change in polling, but bad weather could hamper turnout.

I'll say... Lamb by >1.

[Guest]

Lamb +4

[Mexal]

1 hour ago, Yukle said:

This is a lot of effort to expend on a seat that is, for all intents and purposes, going to be vacated almost straightaway and isn't required for a working majority.

Also interesting: Alabama remains the only flip that the Dems have managed, and that was a gigantic 31% swing against a candidate who was a paedophile. The next largest swing was the massive 23% swing in the Kansas 4th, which was still nowhere near enough to flip the seat.

This is a sad sign of how badly drawn the districts are in the USA. That the norm is for such massive gains needed to flip everyday seats is absurd. Double-digit leads are common in most representative models, but having so few competitive seats is disastrous.

Yea, it's also a function of what districts were actually vacated for the special election. The swings though are very favorable to Dems as there are a number of districts that fit well within that range.

16 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

So we've got 75 mins till the polls close. Time to make your predictions. 

Lamb +3

I think Lamb +5

[Jace, Extat]

Lamb by 7

[Shryke]

1 hour ago, Yukle said:

Hmm... as a hypothetical possibility, what if the USA fractures into civil war again? It wouldn't be hard to raise internal militia, especially in the gun-toting South. The prospect of having some of its states splinter from the union may be a bargaining chip.

No one seems too serious, of course, but there is always academic discussion especially in California and Texas of just seceding. The USA might not bat an eyelid at the loss of Guam or Puerto Rico but the threat of losing key states in independence movements maybe a means of righting the ship.

A part of the point of the book is that this doesn't really seem to happen. They don't implode in a coup or a civil war, they just kinda rot. They keep the trappings of democracy but just end up as corrupt states that don't function well as a democracy at all, ala Russia or Turkey or something. Basically an extreme version of where the US is now with it's rigged elections and concern only for seizing power by one party.

[Yukle]

7 minutes ago, Shryke said:

A part of the point of the book is that this doesn't really seem to happen. They don't implode in a coup or a civil war, they just kinda rot. They keep the trappings of democracy but just end up as corrupt states that don't function well as a democracy at all, ala Russia or Turkey or something. Basically an extreme version of where the US is now with it's rigged elections and concern only for seizing power by one party.

I really ought to read this book. It sounds really cool.

[Martell Spy]

23 minutes ago, Shryke said:

A part of the point of the book is that this doesn't really seem to happen. They don't implode in a coup or a civil war, they just kinda rot. They keep the trappings of democracy but just end up as corrupt states that don't function well as a democracy at all, ala Russia or Turkey or something. Basically an extreme version of where the US is now with it's rigged elections and concern only for seizing power by one party.

Poland and Hungary are ahead of us and provide clues as to how the U.S. may deteriorate. Terrifying to write this about your home.

[Martell Spy]

Quote

With more and more states eyeing work requirements—and more conservative legislators considering them as mechanisms to get out in front of public opinion, while simultaneously constraining state programs—these reforms actually stand to short-circuit the ACA’s intent to give coverage to more people, even as they might prompt more states to get in the expansion game. Widespread eligibility restrictions could offset the benefits of providing greater access to care for low-income individuals, and set the stage for the creation of a limited, punitive Medicaid regime nationwide.

Medicaid Expansion's Troubled Future
The Affordable Care Act’s extension of public insurance to poor adults might finally make its way into every state. But those inroads could come with a cost.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/03/the-future-of-the-medicaid-expansion/555080/

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

1 hour ago, Shryke said:

A part of the point of the book is that this doesn't really seem to happen. They don't implode in a coup or a civil war, they just kinda rot. They keep the trappings of democracy but just end up as corrupt states that don't function well as a democracy at all, ala Russia or Turkey or something. Basically an extreme version of where the US is now with it's rigged elections and concern only for seizing power by one party.

You can also look at the book the Storm Before the Storm, for one of the original examples of this happening. Not exactly a democracy, but still.

[Jace, Extat]

It's a race. 10% in and Lamb (D) has a big lead. Early though,the rural counties haven't sent much in.

[DMC]

Yeah most of these early results are from Allegheny County.  Still, if Lamb's winning by 20 there - and this is a pretty good sample already - this should be a good night.

[Yukle]

19 minutes ago, White Walker Texas Ranger said:

You can also look at the book the Storm Before the Storm, for one of the original examples of this happening. Not exactly a democracy, but still.

That is a brilliant book. And somewhat fitting, since the Roman Republic was the model for the US Republic in many ways (such as the name "Senate" and the idea of a republic, not a democracy).

That said... as bad as Drumpf is, and the Republicans are, I can't imagine his singling out an ethnic minority within his own citizens and then having them massacred next door to the Senate house while calmly reading a list of his achievements. And then dismissing it when a senator asked what the noise is as, "Some criminals are being punished."

For those who are yet to read the book, or any on the fall of the Roman Republic, that did actually happen; Lucius Cornelius Sulla singled out the Samnites as the cause of Rome's civil wars and ordered them all massacred. Including the ones who had been serving in his own legions, and the ones who'd just surrendered to him. Probs the worst person Rome ever produced.

[Jace, Extat]

Just now, dmc515 said:

Yeah most of these early results are from Allegheny County.  Still, if Lamb's winning by 20 there - and this is a pretty good sample already - this should be a good night.

John King seemed like he really wanted to draw attention to the tightness of the race in Greene but didn't want to be premature.

[Yukle]

4 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

Yeah most of these early results are from Allegheny County.  Still, if Lamb's winning by 20 there - and this is a pretty good sample already - this should be a good night.

The NYT has had pretty good modelling for special elections so far.

It's obviously early days, and they even state that at this stage the confidence is very low, but their modelling says Saccone by 1-2%. The urban leads may not be quite big enough.

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

John King seemed like he really wanted to draw attention to the tightness of the race in Greene but didn't want to be premature.

That's...weird.  That 2% of the vote share in Greene is yuge!

[Jace, Extat]

Just now, dmc515 said:

That's...weird.  That 2% of the vote share in Greene is yuge!

I'm high. Arrest me!

[Yukle]

@White Walker Texas Ranger, now you mention it, the constant use of the veto as a tool of always preventing anything getting done until the Tribunes got their way, alongside the Senate's refusal to accept any concessions to assist the poor, as detailed in The Storm before the Storm feels eerily familiar, eh?