Jump to content

US Politics: Stormy Weather Ahead


Fragile Bird

Recommended Posts

8 hours ago, Yukle said:

This may not be a bad thing because the thing that Trump most wants to do is literally NOTHING!

He wants to lounge about all day, watching TV, listening to stories about himself, meeting other famous people and eating cheeseburgers. It's the expectation that he actually has to do work that is most irritating for him. He isn't accustomed to doing much at all.

He's a disgusting tub of orange sloth......lazy, the man is intellectually and physically lazy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Crazydog7 said:

 

True but given the every election is the end of the world mantra and the polarization of American politics it was more or less inevitable. 

I see it more as changes involving social media. You can communicate your campaign, and ask for donations for anyone is willing in any part of the world at very little cost. 

I am trouble by what can be an internationalization of extremely simplistic political caricatures devoid of any connection to anything in the end.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TheKitttenGuard said:

It is somewhat weird how intense special elections have become. Regardless of circumstance a special election will not elicit much of a response 15-20 years ago. Now you have people gnashing teeth, follow results second and second, and determine to find some variable in counties people had no idea existed only hours before. All this and in the end the winner will be facing another election in less than 8 months.

Some of it is just the high stakes these days. But I'd say the biggest reason is that Democrats are fucking fired up right now.

The thing with most special elections is they are for people leaving Congress for appointments. And the #1 rule there is you don't take someone out of a seat you might lose. You always pick safe seats.

But with the way Democrats are agitating right now, there are no safe seats. So all these special elections that would previously have just gone unremarked and barely contested are now tight races that could go either way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't claim 15-20, but personally I was definitely as intense about special elections 10-15 years ago, in fact actually much more so.  As for why it generally draws more attention, because there's more accessible data to feed, propagate, and increase political junkies out there.  As for why it's particularly the case on this board, it's because it has a decidedly leftist bent and this was an unequivocal victory for the left.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This headline shows just how much trouble we are still very much in. We need a supply-side fruitcake to save us from the trade-war nut. The root of the problem is that Trump sees Nazis, nuts, war hawks, and torturers and thinks such people should be given as much power as possible. Until they insult or outshine him, or just wear the wrong suit on the wrong day.

Fuck Trump and I hope he enjoyed spending so much to win a single race and still losing. And well done to the Libertarians for getting over a thousand votes.

Quote

 

Larry Kudlow Is an Insufferable Wall Street Hack. Let’s Hope Trump Picks Him to Replace Gary Cohn Anyway.

In any other White House, the news that Kudlow was a frontrunner to become the president’s top economic adviser would be cause for despair. A highly paid mouther of ‘80s-vintage supply-side platitudes, the man has spent decades yapping in favor of Wall Street-friendly tax cuts and deregulation while blowing calls about the direction of the economy. He’s the human embodiment of an overpriced power tie—a loud throwback that bankers really like.

 

But this, of course, is not any other White House. It is the Trump administration. And given the alternatives, I’m rooting for Kudlow to get the job.

https://slate.com/business/2018/03/larry-kudlow-might-be-the-best-replacement-for-gary-cohn-all-things-considered.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, dmc515 said:

This poor election commissioner from Washington County totally wants to rip Blitzer's beard off.

 

Wolf: Allegheny is counting theirs [absentee ballots] tonight.

Election guy: They have a huger staff than we do.

Yes, he said that. We really are just northern Alabama. That's when I went to bed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Lol, the Trump crowd are sure absentee ballots will be for Saccone.

We shall see.

Did you see the national Republican guy (I forget who) that said Saccone will win after all the legal votes are counted?

He's obviously never been here. This district is whitey white. There probably aren't enough illegals to fill the stands at a Little League baseball game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, dmc515 said:

Again, there is no automatic recount in congressional races.  The GOP may fight it, but unless some absolute craziness happened with Washington Co. absentee ballots, this result will stand.

Anyway, this is a seat with a Cook PVI of R+11.  Literally all 20 seats Cook lists as Lean R*, and all 27 seats Cook lists as Likely R, are equal to or less than R+11.  And the Dems don't need any of those seats to retake the House.  It's time to recognize the Dems as solid favorites to retake the House.

Edit:  *Sorry, except for Mia Love's seat.

Really? I thought I heard last night that there are over a hundred seats (I believe they said 112) that are held by Republicans that are less safe than PA-18. Regardless, last night was a significant victory. It will damage GOP fundraising across the country. And it also vindicates what I’ve been arguing with people in here for over a year. You have to run candidates that can win in conservative districts. Worry about them being anti-choice after they win.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Really? I thought I heard last night that there are over a hundred seats (I believe they said 112) that are held by Republicans that are less safe than PA-18. Regardless, last night was a significant victory. It will damage GOP fundraising across the country. And it also vindicates what I’ve been arguing with people in here for over a year. You have to run candidates that can win in conservative districts. Worry about them being anti-choice after they win.

I've seen PA-18 described as both R+11 and R+21.  538 definitely describes it as R+21, based on the past two presidential races where Romney won +20 and Trump was +21.  I don't really know where the R+11 is coming from, perhaps they are mixing in some data on things like the 2014 governor's race and the last time the seat was contested in 2012?

I agree this is a significant symbolic victory.  Whatever candidate recruiting Republicans have been able to do based on the tax cut and economy is more or less dead in the water.  The last two races have been in Alabama and PA-18, and Republicans lost both.  If you're a Republican considering running in a race that is D+5 or hell, even R+5, you're in for a hell of a fight.  If this convinces Rick Scott to stay out of the FL Senate race then this is a HUGE win for Democrats.  I don't think it will - he doesn't have a lot of good other options politically, but nonetheless I'm hoping.

However, there is also reason not to take too much from this one race.  Lamb was the better candidate, running for a seat that was vacated due to a nasty sex scandal.  Those kinds of scandals make it hard to hold any seat, and most Republicans won't have that handicap.  Most Republicans in R+20 districts will be fine.  I can't say the same for Republicans in R+12 districts, and there are a LOT of districts that are R+12 or less. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

Did you see the national Republican guy (I forget who) that said Saccone will win after all the legal votes are counted?

He's obviously never been here. This district is whitey white. There probably aren't enough illegals to fill the stands at a Little League baseball game.

All Democratic victories are illegitimate, didn't you know?  They're just playing the long game. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In other news, both Rand Paul and John McCain have come out against Gina Haspel's nomination as CIA Director, and on this issue I tend to believe them. So if Democrats stick together, her nomination is dead.

Rand Paul also is opposed to Mike Pompeo's nomination as SecState, but I believe he is the only Republican to do so yet. Also, Pompeo did get 14 Democratic votes to be CIA Director, but that was 3 days after Trump's inauguration, when some Democrats were still hoping to be able to work with Trump (and his approval rating wasn't quite as abysmal yet). I assume he'll get less now, but I don't know if it'll be none.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good News:

Quote

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is throwing a curveball into President Trump's decision to nominate CIA Director Mike Pompeo to be secretary of State and Gina Haspel to lead the spy agency.

Paul said on Wednesday that he will oppose the nominations and "do everything I can to block" them.

"My announcement today is that I will oppose both Pompeo's nomination and Haspel's nomination," Paul said.

Assuming every Republican senator but Paul supports Pompeo, as they did for his current CIA post, and every Democrat opposes, Senate would split 50-50.

The absence of GOP Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who is battling brain cancer and hasn't voted in months, could further complicate Pompeo's nomination.

If McCain doesn't return and Paul votes no, that would leave Republicans short at a 49-50 vote, forcing them to win over Democratic support.

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/378353-rand-paul-to-oppose-pompeo-haspel

:ph34r:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NOW DO YOU PEOPLE UNDERSTAND WHY I SPENT LAST WEEK TALKING ABOUT THE MAKE UP OF THE SENATE, AND HOW KENNEDY RETIRING NOW COULD FORCE A MORE MODERATE NOMINEE?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Listen to the former Senate staffer when he talks about the politics of the Senate!!!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

NOW DO YOU PEOPLE UNDERSTAND WHY I SPENT LAST WEEK TALKING ABOUT THE MAKE UP OF THE SENATE, AND HOW KENNEDY RETIRING NOW COULD FORCE A MORE MODERATE NOMINEE?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Listen to the former Senate staffer when he talks about the politics of the Senate!!!!!!

What are you referring to?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...