Loras’s Burning – A Humbling Moment

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

I feel quite the fool.

We are all fools

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

1 hour ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

Cannot imagine why I thought Stannis didn't hold Storm's End. Just slipped my mind, I guess. I feel quite the fool.

Haha, it was a very small mistake, don't beat yourself up lad.

 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

1 hour ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

True enough, but how is Cersei to know that Stannis has truly abandoned Dragonstone? Sure, Stannis has turned his attention North, but without being there, there's no way to know what his plans are, how soon he'll leave, etc.

Still very important, albeit slightly less so, with Stannis still holding Storm's End. Not the war ending stroke, but still a devastating strike. Definitely more on the symbolic side.

Dragonstone is important. If I were in Cersei's shoes, I might even have thought it important to capture it before turning my attention on the shields. If I did decide that though, I wouldn't have been such a dick about it to my main allies. What a sensible person would have done, is go into serious discussions and planning about how to deal with the Ironborn, look for alternative fleets, or whatever, rather than just go "sorry, not sorry" then jump at the opportunity to kill Loras off.

But then I'm not Cersei. 

[bent branch]

8 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

I was sort of wondering about the logistics of keeping any falsehoods hidden with so many Westermen on Dragonstone. One of them would surely say something?

While my ideas on the taking of Dragonstone are currently under renovation, here are some of the pieces I'm manipulating:

1)  Aurane's story is Aurane's story. We don't know if anyone ever backed up Aurane's story. His is simply the only story we have been told about the incident.

2)  Whatever the truth of the situation, it is now known. In the Epilogue of ADWD, Kevan and Mace speak quite casually about Dragonstone. If there was a lie it was a fleeting one.

3)  The men "killed" in Aurane's story could very well still be on Dragonstone. Since Aurane took the ships, there is no way to retrieve them.

In a nutshell, Aurane could have told a lie, but even if it were revealed it wouldn't really change anything at this point. And one other thing that I'm not sure of is how Aurane took all of the ships only six days later when he said he didn't have enough crew for all of them. Could some of them come from the Westermen on Dragonstone? I don't know. I'm still trying to eliminate that possibility.

Basically, I'm saying that lie only had to stand for six days at the most, if it was a lie.

[Lost Melnibonean]

8 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Small point, but he holds Storms End as well.

Spoiler

Oh no he doesn't. 

 

[Light a wight tonight]

On 3/23/2018 at 8:08 AM, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Yeah, I've seen various theories about how the injury is either faked or exaggerated, as part of a Tyrell plot or something else. I don't really buy any of them. These theories often sketch out a brilliant convoluted plot, but neglect, in my opinion, much more interesting character developments that would occur if he were actually injured and disfigured. 

Overall, i think that this is a great topic, a good premise and will reasoned. The responses are also generally good. But this point is worth challenging. As I see it the Tyrells have an urgent need to get the Redwyne fleet back to the Reach to oppose the Ironborn. There doesn't need to be some convoluted plot, as Cersei has proven herself to be not hard to dupe.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

 

if Loras has truly been humbled and changes for the good then perhaps he'll finally send Yohn Royce and Branston Cuy letters of apology for killing their sons in cold blood.

[cyberdirectorfreedom]

7 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

If I did decide that though, I wouldn't have been such a dick about it to my main allies.

If your main allies were also your biggest threat, you might feel differently. But I think Cersei was actually quite reasonable. I probably would've just waited until Dragonstone was taken, rather than giving Loras the opportunity to speed things up by taking charge.

7 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

What a sensible person would have done, is go into serious discussions and planning about how to deal with the Ironborn, look for alternative fleets, or whatever,

Sure, but there was no other way. Without the Redwyne fleet, there's only the fleet being rebuilt at King's Landing, and that's out of the question. Well, there's Manderly's fleet, and he's tentatively allied with the Crown, but nobody knows about that one. The Redwyne fleet is the only decent plan that I can see. I suppose it would've been possible to hire a fleet from across the Narrow Sea, but the time and money it'd take wouldn't really be worth it.

7 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

rather than just go "sorry, not sorry" then jump at the opportunity to kill Loras off.

To be fair, Loras wasn't actually in any danger that wasn't of his own making. Tywin certainly wouldn't have been injured taking Dragonstone in that manner, because he wouldn't have been the first one in.

Also, didn't Loras actually offer to go to Dragonstone? He did:

"Your Grace, let me take Dragonstone."

His sister's hand went to her mouth. "Loras, no."

Ser Loras ignored her plea. "It will take half a year or more to starve Dragonstone into submission, as Lord Paxter means to do. Give me the command, Your Grace. The castle will be yours within a fortnight if I have to tear it down with my bare hands."

While looking for that, I found some other passages from that chapter (I love that asearchoficeandfire website):

"Highgarden sits above the Mander," Cersei reminded him. "You and your vassals command a thousand leagues of coast. Are there no fisherfolk along your shores? Do you have no pleasure barges, no ferries, no river galleys, no skiffs?"

"Many and more," Ser Loras admitted.

"Such should be more than sufficient to carry a host across a little stretch of water, I would think."

"And when the longships of the ironborn descend upon our ragtag fleet as it is making its way across this 'little stretch of water,' what would Your Grace have us do then?"

Drown, thought Cersei. "Highgarden has gold as well. You have my leave to hire sellsails from beyond the narrow sea."

"Pirates out of Myr and Lys, you mean?" Loras said with contempt. "The scum of the Free Cities?"

He is as insolent as his sister. "Sad to say, all of us must deal with scum from time to time," she said with poisonous sweetness. "Perhaps you have a better notion?"

Bolded line is brilliant. But the point is, Cersei offered other choices, and Loras offered to go to Dragonstone. I wouldn't say she jumped at the opportunity.

1 hour ago, Light a wight tonight said:

As I see it the Tyrells have an urgent need to get the Redwyne fleet back to the Reach to oppose the Ironborn.

Well, sure, but taking Dragonstone frees the Redwyne fleet. There's simply on need for the trickery, if Dragonstone really was taken. But if it wasn't, that's bound to be revealed really, really quickly, so the lie becomes very weak. I think there might even be an argument that abandoning Dragonstone directly against the Regent's orders could very well be treason. The lie just doesn't seem worthwhile, when simply taking Dragonstone would do.

It wouldn't be difficult to take, it'd just take a lot of lives. Loras had a bunch of lives he didn't care about. I don't know, the story rings true.

Unless it's that Loras wanted to go with the Redwyne fleet to attack the Ironborn. His place was with the King, so he should have returned. Being "injured on Dragonstone" allows him to stay out of King's Landing. But the truth would come out eventually, on account of the complete lack of burn scars.

42 minutes ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

 

if Loras has truly been humbled and changes for the good then perhaps he'll finally send Yohn Royce and Branston Cuy letters of apology for killing their sons in cold blood.

Yeah... those were people who didn't need to die.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

On 25/03/2018 at 5:17 AM, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

If your main allies were also your biggest threat, you might feel differently. But I think Cersei was actually quite reasonable.

The Tyrells are competitors, but there's a difference in approach when dealing with competitors who are also allies, and those in open opposition to you. Cersei became entirely focussed on out-maneuvering Margaery, and almost destroyed their key alliance as a result. 

On 25/03/2018 at 5:17 AM, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

Sure, but there was no other way. Without the Redwyne fleet, there's only the fleet being rebuilt at King's Landing, and that's out of the question. Well, there's Manderly's fleet, and he's tentatively allied with the Crown, but nobody knows about that one. The Redwyne fleet is the only decent plan that I can see. I suppose it would've been possible to hire a fleet from across the Narrow Sea, but the time and money it'd take wouldn't really be worth it.

True, but my point was that Cersei was simply dismissive, and didn't even attempt to try to work out alternatives to help the Tyrells. Even if an immediate solution did not present itself, she could have at least made an effort to be seen to take the threat seriously and try to help, even if it was just for show. Instead, she's dismissive, and even antagonistic. It was just crap diplomacy.

On 25/03/2018 at 5:17 AM, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

To be fair, Loras wasn't actually in any danger that wasn't of his own making. Tywin certainly wouldn't have been injured taking Dragonstone in that manner, because he wouldn't have been the first one in.

I know, but she was obviously keen to take him up on his offer to put himself in harms way. Loras might have been fine with that, but Mace and others would hardly be. 

On 25/03/2018 at 5:17 AM, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

I wouldn't say she jumped at the opportunity.

She did though. I don't have the text handy, but she thinks something along the lines of "no-one had given her so great a gift since Sansa had told her about Eddard Stark's plans" or some such. She was gleeful. 

 

[cyberdirectorfreedom]

22 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

The Tyrells are competitors, but there's a difference in approach when dealing with competitors who are also allies, and those in open opposition to you. Cersei became entirely focussed on out-maneuvering Margaery, and almost destroyed their key alliance as a result. 

That may well be true, but there's a good argument that destroying the alliance is actually better for Cersei than having the Tyrells become the dominant party, which they are trying very hard to do (and making no secret about it, just scheme, scheme, scheme). The only upside over the Tyrells getting a leg up is that Cersei gets to spite them, but her power base would be destroyed, either way. It might seem petty, sure, but nobody wants to see their enemies win. Cersei's focus on out-maneuvering the Tyrells is justified, I think. It's important.

22 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

True, but my point was that Cersei was simply dismissive, and didn't even attempt to try to work out alternatives to help the Tyrells. Even if an immediate solution did not present itself, she could have at least made an effort to be seen to take the threat seriously and try to help, even if it was just for show. Instead, she's dismissive, and even antagonistic. It was just crap diplomacy.

Well, considering she offered a few ideas I'm sure, from an outside perspective, it would seem that Cersei is taking it seriously. The Tyrells would know the truth of it, sure, but there's not much they can do about it, and it's not like there's any secret (to the Tyrells) that there's tension between Cersei and the Tyrells, so putting on a show for them is worthless.

22 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I know, but she was obviously keen to take him up on his offer to put himself in harms way. Loras might have been fine with that, but Mace and others would hardly be.

Sure, but considering that there are witnesses to the fact that Loras offered to go to Dragonstone himself, there's no way for the Tyrells to spin this to their political advantage. They can't be seen to be antagonistic towards Cersei for Loras's actions without being seen as petty and vindictive - not good business. If they broke the alliance because of that, they'd be almost universally despised.

That's pretty much Cersei's entire plan with the Tyrells; to screw them over in ways that make it difficult for them to pin on Cersei, so they have no choice but to stay faithful to the Crown. At this juncture, there are only heathens and pirate scum who are in rebellion, so the Tyrells can hardly join with them. They have to win politically, but if Cersei hasn't done anything that they can prove, they can't do anything. I don't think there's any need for Cersei to dance carefully around the Tyrells, though; both parties know they're warring against each other, the subtlety is only for everyone else.

23 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

She did though. I don't have the text handy, but she thinks something along the lines of "no-one had given her so great a gift since Sansa had told her about Eddard Stark's plans" or some such. She was gleeful.

You're definitely right:

No one had given Cersei such a lovely gift since Sansa Stark had run to her to divulge Lord Eddard's plans. She was pleased to see that Margaery had gone pale. 

I think I misunderstood you, however. I thought you meant that the entire situation (the attack on the rocks, the need for the Redwyne fleet) was an opportunity to kill Loras, and that she was very keen to lead the conversation in that direction. Which is, I now think, not at all what you were driving towards.

She certainly was quite pleased about Loras's offer, and didn't care to think of another solution, that's true. Though, of course, to not allow Loras to go to Dragonstone, after so valiantly offering, might have been seen as spiting him, by Mace and the rest of the Tyrells.

Really is just high school drama on a continental scale, isn't it? I have to say, I'm glad I'm not in Cersei's position. I don't have nearly the inclination to personally deal with that sort of drama.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

2 hours ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

That may well be true, but there's a good argument that destroying the alliance is actually better for Cersei than having the Tyrells become the dominant party, which they are trying very hard to do (and making no secret about it, just scheme, scheme, scheme).

I disagree entirely with that. She should of course try and stop them becoming dominant, but she is reliant on them for keeping her and Tommen in power. She needs to find a way to compete with them without breaking with them, which is exactly how Tywin, and later, briefly, Kevan operated. They didn't ignore the threat of the Tyrells, and even plotted to counter them (Tywin with Tyrion and Sansa's wedding, Kevan with his pondering on how to break Lord Tarly from Mace). 

Destroying the alliance means an end to the Lannisters control of the Iron Throne. Even if the Tyrells begin to eclipse Lannister power, there are ways to claw it back short of open conflict.

2 hours ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

Sure, but considering that there are witnesses to the fact that Loras offered to go to Dragonstone himself, there's no way for the Tyrells to spin this to their political advantage.

It's not about whether the Tyrells can glean political advantage, it's about whether putting Mace's favourite son in harms way will anger them enough to sour them against you as the ruler or the alliance as a whole. Cersei was so caught up in having deniability in her schemes against Margaery and Loras (neither of which were actually the key movers of the Tyrells anyway, though Margaery was coming close to it), that she neglected the fact that, if the Tyrells believed she was behind them, which it was pretty obvious she was, then they would look to destroy her whether she had deniability or not.

By the end of ASOIAF, Cersei has been stripped of all her power. That was mostly down to the adultery accusations, but also because clearly Kevan and the Tyrells had decided she was a disaster. The Tyrells were clearly angry about what had occurred, and clearly blamed Cersei for it. 

2 hours ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

I think I misunderstood you, however. I thought you meant that the entire situation (the attack on the rocks, the need for the Redwyne fleet) was an opportunity to kill Loras, and that she was very keen to lead the conversation in that direction. Which is, I now think, not at all what you were driving towards.

Exactly, thanks. 

2 hours ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

Though, of course, to not allow Loras to go to Dragonstone, after so valiantly offering, might have been seen as spiting him, by Mace and the rest of the Tyrells.

Maybe. What I would have done is exhort him in front of the whole court not to do it, "you're too valuable to the king", "we'll find a way to solve this", etc. Then send a raven to Mace explaining that Loras has a foolish idea and we don't want to see him hurt.

The reason is, Loras is actually of zero importance politically. If he is involved in any plots (and that's a big if), it's either as back-up to Margaery, or at the instigation of his grandmother. Putting the Tyrell alliance at risk just to dispose of Mace's third son is ridiculous. It's another example of Cersei looking for short term, simple solutions to complex, long term problems.