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Kandrax

POV number of chapters prediction.

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Posted (edited)

Aeron-3

Areo-2

Arianne-4

Arya-10

Asha-2

Barristan-3

Bran-5

Brienne-4

Cersei-5

Daenerys-11

Davos-4

Jaime-4

JonCon-3

Jon Snow-10

Melisandre-2

Samwell-4

Sansa-8

Theon-4

Tyrion-10

Victarion-3

Prologue and, maybe Epilogue.

Total-102 or 103.

 

Edited by Kandrax

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On 3/23/2018 at 5:31 PM, Kandrax said:

Total-102 or 103.

100 plus is way too many.  ASOS is the longest book and it had only 82.  Even if he shortens them somewhat, I think 90 is the outside maximum.  Here is my take:

"Big 6" characters

Daenerys 10

Tyrion 8

Jon 7

Arya 7

Sansa 7

Bran 6

 

Other major POVs

Cersei 5

Samwell 5

Davos 4

Theon 3

Jaime 3

Brienne 3

 

Minor POVs:  Arianne 4; Asha 4; Melisandre 3; Barristan 2; Damphair (Aeron) 2; Victarion 2 JonCon 1; Areo Hotah 1

Prologue, no Epilogue.  Total 88

 

"Big 6" need to be about half, at least.  The numbers given for them are minimums.   Theon and Asha will combine for about 7, and Jaime and Brienne will combine for about 6, but am unsure of numbers for each.  

 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Nevets said:

100 plus is way too many.  ASOS is the longest book and it had only 82.  Even if he shortens them somewhat, I think 90 is the outside maximum.  Here is my take:

"Big 6" characters

Daenerys 10

Tyrion 8

Jon 7

Arya 7

Sansa 7

Bran 6

 

Other major POVs

Cersei 5

Samwell 5

Davos 4

Theon 3

Jaime 3

Brienne 3

 

Minor POVs:  Arianne 4; Asha 4; Melisandre 3; Barristan 2; Damphair (Aeron) 2; Victarion 2 JonCon 1; Areo Hotah 1

Prologue, no Epilogue.  Total 88

 

"Big 6" need to be about half, at least.  The numbers given for them are minimums.   Theon and Asha will combine for about 7, and Jaime and Brienne will combine for about 6, but am unsure of numbers for each.  

 

I would add one more chapter for Barristan.

I heard that Twow is 1800 manuscript page long, which means around 1300 normal pages, so having to much chapters isn't impossible.

Edited by Kandrax

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4 hours ago, Nevets said:

  Even if he shortens them somewhat

I believe the story warrants more POV chapters, yet I don't think he's making any head way in "shortening" any POV chapter. 100+ might be the required number of chapters that can tell the prodigious story we have now, alas 100+ can only be achieved in more than one book. 

If his editor is truly insisting that he contain the story to single tome, then he's working on shortening the POVs, and that would explain why we did not hear of an eighth book and why TWOW is late. 

Unlike dance, I don't believe Winds has plot problem (e.g., the Meereenese Knot), but Winds' issue is related to length. So, to make a prediction about the number of chapters depends on whether Winds is one book or two books. If it is one book, which I believe it is, then either prediction seems valid. But if it is two books, which is highly unlikely at this juncture as he did not announce it earlier, I guess some of the plot lines will be limited to one or two POV chapters (e.g., Sansa, Arya, Bran, or Aeron).

43 minutes ago, Kandrax said:

I heard that Twow is 1800 manuscript page long, 

From where did you hear that?

 

I thought he said TWOW would be 1500 not 1800.

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7 hours ago, Kandrax said:

I would add one more chapter for Barristan.

I heard that Twow is 1800 manuscript page long, which means around 1300 normal pages, so having to much chapters isn't impossible.

The only number I've seen is 1500 pages.  He has said that Dance of Dragons was as long as could be reasonably published, and it is roughly 425,000 words, the same as Storm of Swords.  Storm has 82 chapters; Dance 73, so the chapters are getting longer.

 

6 hours ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

I believe the story warrants more POV chapters, yet I don't think he's making any head way in "shortening" any POV chapter. 100+ might be the required number of chapters that can tell the prodigious story we have now, alas 100+ can only be achieved in more than one book. 

If his editor is truly insisting that he contain the story to single tome, then he's working on shortening the POVs, and that would explain why we did not hear of an eighth book and why TWOW is late. 

Unlike dance, I don't believe Winds has plot problem (e.g., the Meereenese Knot), but Winds' issue is related to length. So, to make a prediction about the number of chapters depends on whether Winds is one book or two books. If it is one book, which I believe it is, then either prediction seems valid. But if it is two books, which is highly unlikely at this juncture as he did not announce it earlier, I guess some of the plot lines will be limited to one or two POV chapters (e.g., Sansa, Arya, Bran, or Aeron).

From where did you hear that?

 

I thought he said TWOW would be 1500 not 1800.

Doing an exercise like this made me realize something; the amount of text required to adequately tell the story is more than the amount of text available to tell it, which may account for the trouble with finishing it.  A lot of material has to be cut.

Sansa, Arya, and Bran are too important as characters to limit to 1 or 2 chapters.   I expect that the POVs introduced in Feast and Dance will be limited to a bare minimum, though.

One of these days I'm going to try and do a 73 chapter version, just to see if it can be done:P.

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On ‎3‎/‎25‎/‎2018 at 4:53 PM, Kandrax said:

Anything to say?

Apparently not.  Everyone must be busy arguing about whether or not Jaqen is Syrio in disguise and other nonsense.

Here is my attempt at 73 chapters, the number of chapters in Dance of Dragons.

Daenerys  7

Tyrion  7

Jon  6

Arya  6

Sansa  6

Bran  5

Cersei  5

Samwell  4

Davos  4

Theon/Asha  5 total

Jaime/Brienne  4 total

Arianne/JonCon  5 total

Melisandre  2

Victarion and Barristan  2 each

Areo Hotah and Aeron Damphair  1 each

Prologue; no epilogue

Not as difficult as I had feared. Awfully bare bones though.   Would require a lot of consolidating stories and pruning collateral story lines.  I seriously doubt I could go any lower on most of these numbers.

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4 hours ago, Nevets said:

Aeron Damphair

I heard that there is possibility for one more chapter.

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On ‎3‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 2:52 PM, Kandrax said:

I would add one more chapter for Barristan

 

1 hour ago, Kandrax said:

I heard that there is possibility for one more chapter

Is that it?  Any other comments? 

The 73 chapter version was more of an exercise than anything,, just to see if it could be done.

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5 hours ago, Nevets said:

 

Is that it?  Any other comments? 

The 73 chapter version was more of an exercise than anything,, just to see if it could be done.

Well, I would add that i believe as far as Povs go, Barristan and Areo are goner in the next book.

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Daenerys: 10

Tyrion: 8

Sansa: 7

Jon: 6

Arianne: 5

Theon: 5

Arya: 4

Bran: 4

Jaime: 4

Sam: 4

Cersei: 4

Davos: 3

Barristan: 3

Brienne: 2

Aeron: 2

Victarion: 2

Asha: 2

Melisandre: 2

Areo: 1

Jon C: 1

 

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8 hours ago, Endymion I Targaryen said:

Arya: 4

Only 4 for Arya?  Given that she is one of the main characters, I think she is going to need more than that if she is going to actually do anything in the next book.  Other than that, it's a pretty good list.

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On 1/4/2018 at 1:13 AM, Nevets said:

Only 4 for Arya?  Given that she is one of the main characters, I think she is going to need more than that if she is going to actually do anything in the next book.  Other than that, it's a pretty good list.

There are many things to happen: battles at Winterfell,Meereen,Storm's End,Oldtown, Aegon's quest,Dany's return,chaos at the Wall,Riverlands uprising, etc.Arya cant have such a great role.

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11 hours ago, Kandrax said:

I'm glad to see that all of you gave Dany biggest number of chapters.

All two of us?:(  Not much of a sample size.  I'm a bit surprised and disappointed there wasn't more of a response.

On 4/11/2018 at 6:19 AM, Endymion I Targaryen said:

There are many things to happen: battles at Winterfell,Meereen,Storm's End,Oldtown, Aegon's quest,Dany's return,chaos at the Wall,Riverlands uprising, etc.Arya cant have such a great role.

Arya currently has the 3rd largest number of chapters, suggesting that she is important for the overall story.  Also, George has indicated that he likes her a great deal, so I expect that he will find something useful for her to do.  By the way, I don't expect her to remain in Braavos or the FM much longer, and think that she will return to Westeros and the main story..

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1 hour ago, Nevets said:

I'm a bit surprised and disappointed there wasn't more of a response.

Maybe, i could ask for topic to be moved to General(asoiaf). There is no Winds spoiler

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6 hours ago, Kandrax said:

Maybe, i could ask for topic to be moved to General(asoiaf). There is no Winds spoiler

Might be easier to simply start a new topic there.  Better to ask forgiveness than permission :P.

19 hours ago, Kandrax said:

I'm glad to see that all of you gave Dany biggest number of chapters.

I think Dany will start to actually do something, and is going to need a lot of chapters to do so.  Also, she hasn't had the most yet.  It is time.  And I say this as someone who doesn't particularly like her.

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On ‎4‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 4:06 PM, Nevets said:

All two of us?:(  Not much of a sample size.  I'm a bit surprised and disappointed there wasn't more of a response.

Arya currently has the 3rd largest number of chapters, suggesting that she is important for the overall story.  Also, George has indicated that he likes her a great deal, so I expect that he will find something useful for her to do.  By the way, I don't expect her to remain in Braavos or the FM much longer, and think that she will return to Westeros and the main story..

I have a working theory that she will end up in Meereen and come across Westeros with Dany, Tyrion, and company.  Tyrion would recognize her, and I think she will be the bridge alliance between Jon and Dany. 

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6 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I have a working theory that she will end up in Meereen and come across Westeros with Dany, Tyrion, and company.  Tyrion would recognize her, and I think she will be the bridge alliance between Jon and Dany. 

I've also been thinking she might join the Essos crew and their stories. What the show did with her was cool, I have a few nitpicks, but the outcome was great, but I don't see it playing out like that in the books. I'm thinking the Faceless Men get hired to take out someone very significant and they choose Arya to carry it out. Who though? Who has enemies in high places that could afford that? Dany and her hand, Barristan. He's been running Mereen in her absence. Maybe their enemies pool their money together and hire an assassin to take him out. This is someone I could see Martin killing off, so it's possible Arya could go through with this before the morality of her mission kicks in. if this does happen, hopefully she'll realize how full of shit the FM are before killing him.

I could even see a Reek/Ramsey thing with Arya and FM going on where their like- 'We need you to be someone you're not, we need you to be Arya Stark. A bit out there, but Arya showing up in Essos saying her homeland is in disarray and the Riverlands are a ruin and she can't trust anyone, and didn't know who to turn to but the honorable Ser Barristan could be reason enough for her to show up. He might even recognize her.  

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14 minutes ago, Mooncalf said:

I've also been thinking she might join the Essos crew and their stories. What the show did with her was cool, I have a few nitpicks, but the outcome was great, but I don't see it playing out like that in the books. I'm thinking the Faceless Men get hired to take out someone very significant and they choose Arya to carry it out. Who though? Who has enemies in high places that could afford that? Dany and her hand, Barristan. He's been running Mereen in her absence. Maybe their enemies pool their money together and hire an assassin to take him out. This is someone I could see Martin killing off, so it's possible Arya could go through with this before the morality of her mission kicks in. if this does happen, hopefully she'll realize how full of shit the FM are before killing him.

I could even see a Reek/Ramsey thing with Arya and FM going on where their like- 'We need you to be someone you're not, we need you to be Arya Stark. A bit out there, but Arya showing up in Essos saying her homeland is in disarray and the Riverlands are a ruin and she can't trust anyone, and didn't know who to turn to but the honorable Ser Barristan could be reason enough for her to show up. He might even recognize her.  

Excellent points. I think the FM will send her there and I too think/hope she grasps the issues with the FM ideology before carrying out her mission. However, I think it may be part of the larger FM/Maester/Citadel/Antimagic conspiracy.

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