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Kandrax

POV number of chapters prediction.

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When ADWD ends, there's so many different characters with their own arcs and plots going around, that I wouldn't be surprised if Martin had to split the next saga into 2 book using the same format as AFFC and ADWD, and then add an additional 8th book. Except where ADWD goes well beyond where AFFC ends, the second book ends at around the same time frame as the first. 

If not, maybe he'll tear a page out of Tolkein's book and split TWOW into 2 parts focusing on different regions and characters. Part 1 can  take place in King's Landing, the Riverlands, the Vale, Bravos, Stormlands, Dorne, Reach, and Oldtown. Part 2 could take place in the North, Iron Islands, at the Wall and beyond, and further east in Essos. Let's say part 1 lasts about 650 pages, but at around the 300 page mark, certain characters like Jamie, Sansa, and Arya start disappearing because they're changing locations. Then, in part 2, at around the 1000 page mark, they start reappearing and the book continues that way for another 500-600 pages. Whatever happens, the next book is gonna rule.

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Here's my prediction that probably won't be anywhere close to what's gonna happen:

Part 1:

Cersie - 7

Brienne - 6

Arianne - 6

Jon Conn - 5

Sam - 5

Sansa - 5

Aeron - 4

Areo Hotah - 3

Arya - 3

Jamie - 2

1 Prologue - 47 chapters

Part 2:

Dany - 9

Davos - 7

Barristan - 6

Tyrion - 6

Victarion - 5

Asha - 4

Mel - 4

Jamie - 4

Arya - 4

Theon - 3

Bran - 3

Sansa - 3

Ghost (with Jon warging him) - 2

with all the chaos at the wall, wouldn't be surprising if Martin gave a few chapters to a new POV there. Maybe a wildling like Tormund or Val.

1 prologue and epilogue- about 65 chapters.

So that's around 112 chapters, which sounds ridiculous. But factor in how long he's been working on it, and everything that's been set up in the past 2 books, and it doesn't seem too out there.

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Okay, here are my predictions along with where I think we will be plot wise at the end of the book.

Dany - 10

Tyrion - 10

Jon - 11

Arya - 7

Sansa - 7

Bran - 6

Arianne - 5

Asha - 2

Theon - 3

Barristan - 3

Brienne - 4

Jaime - 5

Cersei - 6

Davos - 6

Jon Con - 3

Mel - 3

Sam - 4

Vicatrion 3

Total: 98 chapters. If we estimate  an average 15 pages per chapter, that is 1470 pages...sounds about right.

I think  A Dream of Spring will be focused on the threat of the Others invading Westeros and who ultimately sits on the Iron Throne.  In order for this to happen, I believe that a) The Wall has to come down by the end of the book and b ) Dany has to land on Westeros and interact with at least some of the major players (not necessarily all of them, but Jon or Aegon, at a minimum)

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To be honest I don't think Bran is going to get a POV in TWoW, if he does, not more than one or two chapters, it would simply reveal too much

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11 minutes ago, Jekse said:

To be honest I don't think Bran is going to get a POV in TWoW, if he does, not more than one or two chapters, it would simply reveal too much

I think it would depend on how the novel is structured. He could have one or two at the beginning and the rest at the end, or vice versa. I have some page estimates, which could be totally off, but I do try to look at how he has written in the past when calculating.  Personally, I think that the novel is going to begin with the Mercy chapter, a Bran chapter, a chapter with Jon in Ghost and then another Arya chapter (~60 pages). Then, the next ~150-200 pages is going to be Dany/Meereen centric, with viewpoints of Dany, Tyrion, Barristan, Victarion, and as I mentioned earlier, I think Arya is going to get joined into this arc somehow. From there, there will be a swift move to the North, where there will be Asha, Theon, Davos, Mel, and Jon chapters, and maybe another Bran. I estimate this to take ~100-150 pages. At this point, if we use my upper limit estimations, we are at ~410 pages, to just wrap up the cliff hangers of ADWD and maybe move the plot a bit further.

after that point, though, I think plot arcs are going to start to blend and converge, starting with the Riverlands, Vale, King's Landing, Dorne, and the Storm lands.  Shoot! I forgot to include a couple people in my estimates. Areo and Aeron have chapters, too, that have been confirmed, have they not?  Must start thinking again.

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Bran is confirmed at least one chapter. I remember a crashing wave of jealousy because his editor has read a Bran chapter. It was in an interview she did around the time WOAIF was released I think

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1 hour ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Bran is confirmed at least one chapter. I remember a crashing wave of jealousy because his editor has read a Bran chapter. It was in an interview she did around the time WOAIF was released I think

Do you have a source to confirm?

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Okay, here are my revisions: Areo 2 and Aeron 3.  Total: 103 chapters at ~15 pages per chapter would equal 1545 pages. Again, in line with what we have come to expect from Martin's novels. 

I thought about my theories and predictions for the novel and how this will affect how many chapters each character will have.  As we start to look towards the end game, many of these viewpoints are going to combine.  It could actually mean that TWOW will cover a lot more material than we think: if each pov chapter contains multiple pov characters (for instance, a Tyrion chapter that features Dany, Barristan, and Victarion) means that if there are a lot of time spans being covered It would be quite redundant to have a Tyrion, Dany, Barristan and Victarion chapter each describing the same meeting. Interesting, don't get me wrong! Each of their different impressions of one another would be a joy to read, but I would say that it would be an inefficient use of story time.

  I think that the Battle of Meereen and the Battle of the Ice will have some povs segregated for a while, similar to what happened at the end of ACOK and the beginning of ASOS.  The Battle of Blackwater took so much of the end of Clash that Martin wrote a note at the beginning of Storm saying that some of these things happened concurrently. 

Edited by Lady Rhodes

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1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

many of these viewpoints are going to combine.  It could actually mean that TWOW will cover a lot more material than we think: if each pov chapter contains multiple pov characters (for instance, a Tyrion chapter that features Dany, Barristan, and Victarion) means that if there are a lot of time spans being covered It would be quite redundant to have a Tyrion, Dany, Barristan and Victarion chapter each describing the same meeting. Interesting, don't get me wrong! Each of their different impressions of one another would be a joy to read, but I would say that it would be an inefficient use of story time.

  

Don't get me wrong, I love Tyrion. But we saw a lot of him in the last book and his cynical and bitter outlook grows tedious. If he's going to be in the same location as Barristan, and even Victarion during parts of the next book, then I'd rather see things through their perspectives. 

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@Mooncalf and @Lady Rhodes, unless his chapters get a lot shorter, 100 chapters is probably way too many.  ASOS and ADWD were both described as being a long as could be done, and they were 82 and 73 chapters, respectively.  And the Arya, Theon, and Sansa preview chapters are each about the length of ADWD chapters (6,000 words or so).  Even if shortens his chapters, I have a hard time seeing him fitting in more than 90, if that.

This will mean that a lot of the stories get consolidated, with the principal characters (Jon, Dany, Tyrion, Sansa, Arya, and Bran) taking most of the load, I think.

9 hours ago, Jekse said:

To be honest I don't think Bran is going to get a POV in TWoW, if he does, not more than one or two chapters, it would simply reveal too much

Given that TWOW is the next to last book, I don't see how he could leave Bran out. He will probably get the least number of chapters of the main characters, though.

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47 minutes ago, Nevets said:

@Mooncalf and @Lady Rhodes, unless his chapters get a lot shorter, 100 chapters is probably way too many.  ASOS and ADWD were both described as being a long as could be done, and they were 82 and 73 chapters, respectively.  And the Arya, Theon, and Sansa preview chapters are each about the length of ADWD chapters (6,000 words or so).  Even if shortens his chapters, I have a hard time seeing him fitting in more than 90, if that.

This will mean that a lot of the stories get consolidated, with the principal characters (Jon, Dany, Tyrion, Sansa, Arya, and Bran) taking most of the load, I think.

Given that TWOW is the next to last book, I don't see how he could leave Bran out. He will probably get the least number of chapters of the main characters, though.

This is what I get for responding on my lunch break and Not when I had my books handy! Hardcover of a dance with dragons 900 some and storm is just over a thousand. That said, I thought I had read in an interview transcript that he anticipates winds and DoS would be huge books of 1500 pages. 

http://www.syfy.com/syfywire/george-rr-martin-confirms-the-number-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-novels

 

 

Edited by Lady Rhodes

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4 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

This is what I get for responding on my lunch break and Not when I had my books handy! Hardcover of a dance with dragons 900 some and storm is just over a thousand. That said, I thought I had read in an interview transcript that he anticipates winds and DoS would be huge books of 1500 pages. 

http://www.syfy.com/syfywire/george-rr-martin-confirms-the-number-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-novels

 

 

Those are manuscript pages, which are quite a bit shorter than book pages.  It translates to about 900-1000 pages.  Which means 85 chapters is probably about the maximum, maybe 90 if he really tries.  Hopefully not 73.  I did a 73 version (upthread), and it is pretty ugly.

@Mooncalf;  Two books separated geographically?   You do realize that his decision to do that with AFFC and ADWD is probably the most unpopular thing he has done with the series?  I don't think he will do that again if only to avoid the angry reaction it would bring.

 

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20 hours ago, Jekse said:

Do you have a source to confirm?

Seems I confused a couple of things in my head. It was an interview with Anne Groell in which she says she knows the end point for Bran (hence my recollection of burning jealousy at the time :P). Source:  https://winteriscoming.net/2014/05/29/george-r-r-martins-editor-anne-groell-answers-fan-questions-live-qa-hopes-twow-reasonably-soon/

Quote

We know that the producers of the TV show Game of Thrones know in broad strokes the ending of the main character arcs of A Song of Ice and Fire. Without giving anything away, do you know the ending, too?
No. George is a very secretive fellow, and guards his secrets well. I do know a few things from AWOW, but mainly because we had to shorten a few elements in the book as it was already getting too long, and he had to reveal a few secrets so I could help him redirect parts of the plot a bit. I do know the endpoint of Bran’s story line—and Daniel Abraham, who has been adapting the graphic novel of AGOT for me, knows where Tyrion ends up. (I am jealous of that!) But much in the way all of you have been keeping secrets from show watchers who have not yet read the books (and I continue to be impressed by how secret you all kept the Red Wedding), I also will never tell what I know. George has somehow managed to swear us all to this amazing conspiracy of silence, which I admire and appreciate and fully participate in! I had a very amusing lunch with Daniel in which we very pointedly did not tell each other what the other one knew. In short, like you, I Keep George’s Secrets.

There is an implication that some Bran stuff was pushed back there’s, but no confirmation. 

 The confirmation of a Bran chapter comes from the photos of the DwD manuscript. This can be found in The Winds of Winter Resource thread in the OP, where all confirmed POVS so far are listed and sourced :) 

Edited by HelenaExMachina

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