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NFL 2018 Draft: On The One Hand...


Jace, Extat

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2 minutes ago, dbunting said:

That Wilson meme is fucking spot on fantastic!

Now on to LA, who the hell is running this team? Holy shake up everything and man do they look like a SB winner on paper. Plus with Suh being just one year they can kick the tires and be ok.

And there's word they could be interested in ODB.

They have 54 million in cap space next year. Lots of guys to pay, but if ever there was a destination city for a team of fucking superstars...

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9 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

And there's word they could be interested in ODB.

They have 54 million in cap space next year. Lots of guys to pay, but if ever there was a destination city for a team of fucking superstars...

Who isn't a fan of the Wu? Unfortunately, he passed 13 years ago.

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I like the Suh signing, although not the accumulation of all these name guys. Sounds a lot like the Eagles "Dream Team" from 2011 or whenever that was. There's a reason these teams didn't want these immensely talented players back.

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12 hours ago, sperry said:

I like the Suh signing, although not the accumulation of all these name guys. Sounds a lot like the Eagles "Dream Team" from 2011 or whenever that was. There's a reason these teams didn't want these immensely talented players back.

If Wade Philips can hold everybody together, that defense could be scary.  But Peters + Suh + Talib is an explosive combination, could go south fast. 

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It has been 821 days since Johnny Manziel played for the Browns. Over that time period, he leads the Browns in total QB wins with two.  When the 2018 NFL season starts, that number will be 984 days. That means they are guaranteed to make it 1000 days without a QB surpassing two wins.

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

It has been 821 days since Johnny Manziel played for the Browns. Over that time period, he leads the Browns in total QB wins with two.  When the 2018 NFL season starts, that number will be 984 days. That means they are guaranteed to make it 1000 days without a QB surpassing two wins.

I don't see how Manziel got ANY wins when he wasn't playing.... :P

I'm curious how many days you must go back to find another Browns QB with two wins.  That's the real power number.

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I'm threatening to become a closet L.A. bandwagoner.

Not really, but that's one team I'm gonna be happy to see in primetime next year. Donald and Suh.

These aren't run stopper big boys, people! These dudes prefer DT where they get to rip through slower linemen, but are damn good playing as a DE also.

The Rams are going to ruin QB's next year. I'm not predicting a legendary defense as a whole, because it's just impossible to know how guys will gel before the season, but Wade Phillips is going to have the deaths of NFC West QB's on his conscience next year. Sam Bradford? Foggedaboudit

 

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22 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

I don't see how Manziel got ANY wins when he wasn't playing.... :P

I'm curious how many days you must go back to find another Browns QB with two wins.  That's the real power number.

If my math is correct, 1253 days ago on October 5th, 2014, Hoyer the destroyer got his second win.

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On 3/26/2018 at 3:14 PM, Fez said:

I should clarify, being a Jets fan means always being in the QB basement, so to me a top-12, even top-15 QB is "top level" to me. If in 2009 the Jets had someone like Kurt Warner (#10 QB rating that year) or even Kyle Orton (#14) I think they could've won a Superb Owl; Mark Sanchez was #28. Same goes for 2015 if they'd had Big Ben (#11) or Aaron Rodgers (#15, it was a bit of a down year); Ryan FitzPatrick was #24.

Yeah, I get that. I guess the question you have to ask yourself is can anyone of these prospect be top 15 in the NFL. I don't think Darnold is that guy. I have no idea what Rosen will be as a pro. Baker seems like the safest bet, but again, nothing is guaranteed. Allen and Jackson probably have the most upside, but they could also be busts and flame out quickly.

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The last downright good QB year that the Jets have had was 2002 with Chad Pennington (104.2QB rating was best in the league, 68.9% completion, 22TD-6INT, though only 3,120 yards). Its not a coincidence that was also the last season the Jets won the AFC East, and they destroyed the Colts 41-0 in the divisional round before losing to the one magical Rich Gannon Raiders season in Oakland.

I was listening to some Jets fans debate their team's history and they all agreed that Pennington was probably the best QB in franchise history. That's stunning. 

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I think it's becoming really clear that you don't even need top 15 QB play. You need either elite play at market rate, or you need competent play on the cheap.

 

That's why the Flacco, Dalton, new Bortles contract, new Keenum contract, are just disasters. The roster difference between paying those guys $3-7 million on thier rookie deals and like $20+ million is enormous, and is the difference between a strong playoff caliber roster and a mediocre roster.

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I was listening to some Jets fans debate their team's history and they all agreed that Pennington was probably the best QB in franchise history. That's stunning. 

If he hadn't been hurt so much, no question. As is though, I think it's Ken O'Brien. He had a perfectly fine career, problem was he was picked 3 spots before Dan Marino. He generally didn't have competent teams around, but he was solid.

Could maybe make a case for Vinny Testaverde too. Which, yeah; being a Jets fan is rough.

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Did anyone see the new NFL rule announced today regarding lowering the helmet to make contact? Sounds like defense, RB's, Line man etc, if they lower their helmet to make contact with another player will face a 15 yard penalty and possible ejection. Sounds like NFL is taking a step to change behaviors and habits?

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16 hours ago, sperry said:

I think it's becoming really clear that you don't even need top 15 QB play. You need either elite play at market rate, or you need competent play on the cheap.

I agree that you don’t need a top QB, but I believe the stat I calculated a year or so ago was that 80% of Superb Owl champions in the last 25 years had a top 12 QB, and that all but one QB were close to being top 12 in the season they won a championship (Trent Dilfer is the major outlier).   

That said you’re spot on in that market value, and value in general, is one of the most important things in building a championship team. It’s why Seattle was so good and now is a disaster.

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That's why the Flacco, Dalton, new Bortles contract, new Keenum contract, are just disasters. The roster difference between paying those guys $3-7 million on thier rookie deals and like $20+ million is enormous, and is the difference between a strong playoff caliber roster and a mediocre roster.

I’m not sure I’d include Keenum in that group. It’s a two year deal for a team that’s likely drafting a QB who might need to sit for a year. The only downside is that they back loaded the deal rather than front loading it, but even that doesn’t matter that much if they cut him because their starter will still be cheap. The other guys you listed though….my god those are bad deals.

15 hours ago, Fez said:

If he hadn't been hurt so much, no question. As is though, I think it's Ken O'Brien. He had a perfectly fine career, problem was he was picked 3 spots before Dan Marino. He generally didn't have competent teams around, but he was solid.

Could maybe make a case for Vinny Testaverde too. Which, yeah; being a Jets fan is rough.

Ha. The only reason I know who Ken O’Brien is is because Jets fans gnash their teeth every time their hear Marino’s name mentioned.

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On 3/26/2018 at 5:19 PM, Pony Queen Jace said:

If Odell Beckham was on the board at #6 would you take him?

I would, and I'd trade that 2nd rounder to move up and get him. The money is of no consequence to me (this won't happen anyway), the Colts have a projected $110 million in cap room next year with Luck already under contract. And after they cut him Jacoby is going to need a good WR.

I would, but that's not an option.  The question is "If Odell Beckham was on the board at #6, but you had to pay him $18 million a year, would you take him?"  To which I would answer no. 

We've talked about how important value is at QB, that teams like the Ravens, Jaguars and Bengals have hamstrung themselves by paying top dollar for average QB talent.  Well I think that WR is that only more so.  If you're going to pay top dollar for a receiver he needs to be an elite talent, reliably available and a team leader.  Beckham is only one of those things.  Trading the #6 pick for the right to have Beckham become a cap problem is a Redskins kinda move (aka what bad teams do). 

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Per NFL luminary Stugotz, this sequence of events is about to happen:

·         Buffalo is going to package a collection of picks to move up to number two in the draft

·         Buffalo is then trading the number two pick to New England for Tom Brady

·         New England is drafting Josh Allen

·         Colin Kaepernick is going to be signed to back up Josh Allen

·         Tim Tebow is going to be signed to back up Kaep

·         Brett Farve is coming out of retirement to back up Tebow.

 

Now that’s how you hot take!

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I would, but that's not an option.  The question is "If Odell Beckham was on the board at #6, but you had to pay him $18 million a year, would you take him?"  To which I would answer no. 

We've talked about how important value is at QB, that teams like the Ravens, Jaguars and Bengals have hamstrung themselves by paying top dollar for average QB talent.  Well I think that WR is that only more so.  If you're going to pay top dollar for a receiver he needs to be an elite talent, reliably available and a team leader.  Beckham is only one of those things.  Trading the #6 pick for the right to have Beckham become a cap problem is a Redskins kinda move (aka what bad teams do). 

I think it could work for a team like the Browns, simply because they have so much cap space and they're several years away from having to pay a lot of their young talent.  I wouldn't give up the number four pick for Beckham, though.  I'd think something like Corey Coleman and one of their top three second rounders.  I think you look at what Brandon Marshall got dealt for back in the day and that's your market.  Both players had maturity and off field issues that hurt their value despite being elite level talents.

I don't think it will happen, but the Browns are one of the few teams in a cap situation where they could pull it out without hamstringing their cap for the next three years.

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