NFL 2018 Draft: On The One Hand...

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

I also think we're selling Rice's speed short.  The guy wasn't a track star, but when running routes back in the 80s he looked faster than everybody else - he could run away from DBs too.  I'm sure Moss was a little faster than Rice, but it's not like Rice is some "possession receiver".

Agreed, I just wasn't gonna press the point.  Already have one citation for nitpicks.

[Kalbear]

Rice also never, ever played with any offense that was heavily focused on the pass like they are now; Moss played for arguably the best offense of all time. Rice was a better blocker, a better short pass receiver, had a far better work ethic, was far more consistent across multiple QBs, and had better longevity. It's certainly possible that Moss could have been a better receiver - but that's a could've argument. He wasn't, because he didn't try as hard. Rice did. 

Rice could do most everything Moss could do - he could get open for long passes, he could use his physicality to box out corners, he could go up for a pass - AND he could catch things over the middle or on slants and hitches. Moss was a specialist at his long pass, but entirely mediocre outside of that - largely because he chose to be.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, dmc515 said:

See above about talent.  I'll take Rice's hands, route-running, and ability to read defenses in order to get open and complete many more plays over Moss' speed and ball skills every day of the week and twice on Sunday.  You're right that Moss is the most explosive receiver ever - he was unique in being able to put up a game box score of 3 catches, 150 yards, 2 TDs - but that doesn't make him the most talented by a long shot.

I think you could argue that both Rice and Moss are top 5 all time with regards to their hands. Chris Carter was also known for having elite hands and he said Moss’ were better. You’re absolutely right about route running though. Rice was probably the most polished route runner ever, and Moss’ middle of the road route running was a legit knock on him. But that said, Moss really didn’t need to run crisp routes. His game was primarily vertical, and that gets into why he was so great. He affected everyone else on the field in a way Rice didn’t (at least in my opinion). He’s the only WR I’ve ever heard DCs say they would triple team. And lastly, as far as reading defenses go, I can’t speak about Rice’s skills so I’ll trust your opinion on it, but Moss was great at to. He was legendary for knowing when the defense wasn’t ready to defend the deep pass and he’d signal it to the QB and they attack it with furry. Don’t undersell Moss in that regard.

[Arch-MaesterPhilip]

The Cubbies are making this game interesting.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Brady getting better in 2007 occurred the exact same year that Wes Welker arrived.  Both obviously helped a lot, but the Patriots were more willing to part with Moss, and have been careful to ensure they have someone with Welker's skill set ever since (the same cannot be said of Moss). 

As for the draft, you must be joking.  Three different teams (Vikings, Raiders, Patriots) shipped Moss out when he was still physically elite.  Taking him ahead of someone like Fitzgerald is straight crazy.  Moss might give you 3 more touchdowns one year, but he also might completely give up on the season, something he did in Minnesota and Oakland and might have been about to do in New England.  And when he does it, the GM gets fired. 

True, but my guess is Moss helped Welker more than vice versa. Moss took the top off of the defense which allowed Welker to carve up the middle. You are right about wanting to keep guys like Welker around. New England loves their tinny white receivers.

And no, I’m not joking. Moss was difficult, no doubt about it, but he was a supreme talent and sometimes you just have to live with that. And like I said before, Moss is more than just stats. He makes everyone’s life easier because of just how much emphasis the defense had to put on stopping him. IDK how you quantify that, but the Moss Effect was real.  

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

I also think we're selling Rice's speed short.  The guy wasn't a track star, but when running routes back in the 80s he looked faster than everybody else - he could run away from DBs too.  I'm sure Moss was a little faster than Rice, but it's not like Rice is some "possession receiver".

Rice’s listed 40 time is 4.71, and I’m sure it dropped after his injury. I think what made him look faster than he was were the angles he took. He was great at getting by guys who were just as fast as him. But regardless, you can’t compare that 40 time with Moss’ blazing 4.25. You know a guy is fast when Dion Sanders wanted nothing to do with him. Go look up the tape from the 1998 Thanksgiving Day game. Moss had 3 catches for 163 and 3 TDs. It also highlights why looking at the number of catches Moss had can be misleading.

[Maithanet]

8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Rice’s listed 40 time is 4.71, and I’m sure it dropped after his injury. I think what made him look faster than he was were the angles he took. He was great at getting by guys who were just as fast as him. But regardless, you can’t compare that 40 time with Moss’ blazing 4.25. You know a guy is fast when Dion Sanders wanted nothing to do with him. Go look up the tape from the 1998 Thanksgiving Day game. Moss had 3 catches for 163 and 3 TDs. It also highlights why looking at the number of catches Moss had can be misleading.

Of course, citing Rice's 40 time kinda shows you don't know what you're talking about.  Rice didn't train for the 40, he didn't come from a track background and he didn't seem to particularly care about it.  Guys watching film could see he was faster than 4.7, that he seemed to consistently pull away from defenders who ran a 4.5.  Rice didn't care about how fast he could run in shorts.

 

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And no, I’m not joking. Moss was difficult, no doubt about it, but he was a supreme talent and sometimes you just have to live with that. And like I said before, Moss is more than just stats. He makes everyone’s life easier because of just how much emphasis the defense had to put on stopping him. IDK how you quantify that, but the Moss Effect was real.  

Ok?  If Moss is "more than just stats" and "he makes everyone’s life easier" why did three different teams give up on him?  Were those GMs just stupid?  You have to take the bad with the good on Moss, and the bad was AWFUL. 

I know I'm in the minority in how far I go with this, but personally I have no problem holding guys like Moss and TO out of the HOF because of their poisonous attitudes.  Both those guys ruined entire seasons for multiple NFL teams because of their locker room bullshit.  That's not Hall of Fame material to me.  Now if you want to argue that they are so overwhelmingly qualified that even if you penalize them for that, they still need to go in, that's fine.  I personally penalize them quite strongly for ruining their teams, but other people seem to be more forgiving in this regard. 

[Jace, Extat]

Speaking of 40 vs field...

Lamaar Jackson refused to run a 40, citing tape if you wanted to gauge his speed.

Someone's gonna take this kid. And I'm going to be a torn creature. Who do y'all think snaps him up?

I'm dreading a Miami or Jacksonville destination, 'cause I'd hate to root for them.

I could see Arizona, Buffalo, and Baltimore going for him early before he's in the range of New Orleans, Minnesota, NE, Jacksonville.

 

[James Arryn]

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I also think we're selling Rice's speed short.  The guy wasn't a track star, but when running routes back in the 80s he looked faster than everybody else - he could run away from DBs too.  I'm sure Moss was a little faster than Rice, but it's not like Rice is some "possession receiver".

Rice had incredible game speed. Terry McDaniel, who was an SEC champion sprinter who ran like 10.3 100 said that Rice routinely ran away from him on the field. Jim Brown, watching Rice, said that he’d heard about how he ran a 4.6 but in the game he was faster than anyone on the field. Deion said Rice’s speed was way better than credited, and more that his change of gears and directions at full speed were the best he ever faced. I was a sprinter, and almost all of my best times were in meets; some people just don’t click into top gear when only running against a clock.

And, for the record, Bill Walsh noticed Rice on local tv highlights because of his speed, just ‘this kid who was running away from everyone’. When he got older he lost that top gear, but let the other stuff So was still pretty unstoppable, but in his prime he could flat out fly on the football field.

Also the idea that Rice didn’t scare defences or that they didn’t try gameplan to stop him is crazy. The difference was you had to take everything away...and that’s kind of pointless as a coach. With Moss, if you took posts and flags away your job was done, so it makes more sense to try. Not that getting it done means he won’t beat you with his freak size/jumping, but as a coach you have a narrow field to be concerned about and the rest is out of your hands.

With Rice...what’s his go-to? Slant? Post? Literally anything. Try taking that away. 

[briantw]

38 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

Speaking of 40 vs field...

Lamaar Jackson refused to run a 40, citing tape if you wanted to gauge his speed.

Someone's gonna take this kid. And I'm going to be a torn creature. Who do y'all think snaps him up?

I'm dreading a Miami or Jacksonville destination, 'cause I'd hate to root for them.

I could see Arizona, Buffalo, and Baltimore going for him early before he's in the range of New Orleans, Minnesota, NE, Jacksonville.

 

I'm guessing he's off the board in the 15 to 25 range, which seems about right.  I like Rosen and Darnold better as pro prospects.  I'd definitely take Jackson over Allen (who is garbage but will for some reason go top ten I'm sure), and probably Mayfield as well, although that at least is close since I like both.  

[Bronn Stone]

25 minutes ago, briantw said:

I'm guessing he's off the board in the 15 to 25 range, which seems about right.  I like Rosen and Darnold better as pro prospects.  I'd definitely take Jackson over Allen (who is garbage but will for some reason go top ten I'm sure), and probably Mayfield as well, although that at least is close since I like both.  

The thing I expect with Jackson is some team will trade up to grab him in that range.  Probably giving up a #1 next year and a top half of the field #2 this.  He's a better candidate for a team with lots of holes and time to develop him.

I also agree with your take on Allen.  He's got "Dolly Parton sized bust" written all over him.

[DanteGabriel]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think you could argue that both Rice and Moss are top 5 all time with regards to their hands.

*cough* Stickum *cough*

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[briantw]

2 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

The thing I expect with Jackson is some team will trade up to grab him in that range.  Probably giving up a #1 next year and a top half of the field #2 this.  He's a better candidate for a team with lots of holes and time to develop him.

I also agree with your take on Allen.  He's got "Dolly Parton sized bust" written all over him.

I feel like the only way Allen succeeds is on the right team.  He needs to develop for probably several years if he ever hopes to amount to anything.  But we've seen a billion guys with big arms who couldn't hit the broad side of a barn fail in the NFL.  Hell, the Browns just drafted one in the second round last year.

As for Jackson, I just saw that he completely bombed the Wonderlic, and I wonder if that impacts his draft stock.  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Of course, citing Rice's 40 time kinda shows you don't know what you're talking about.  Rice didn't train for the 40, he didn't come from a track background and he didn't seem to particularly care about it.  Guys watching film could see he was faster than 4.7, that he seemed to consistently pull away from defenders who ran a 4.5.  Rice didn't care about how fast he could run in shorts.

There’s no need to get personal. I looked at his combine and read an article about it and the take away point is that he had average NFL speed. I spent another 15 minutes or so looking at more articles and they agree with you that he is 4.5, but at the back end. The two things that I kept seeing is that his 4.59 40 is probably the most accurate one and that nobody outside of his college coach has him at sub 4.55. Let me put that into perspective for you: I once ran a 4.48. Granted, that is my only sub 4.5 40, but I regularly ran sub 4.55 40’s. The two fastest guys I ever played with ran legit 4.45 40’s, and I never came close to beating them, and that was with a difference of only .1 seconds. The difference between Moss and Rice is .34. He would have dusted Rice in his prime.

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Ok?  If Moss is "more than just stats" and "he makes everyone’s life easier" why did three different teams give up on him?  Were those GMs just stupid?  You have to take the bad with the good on Moss, and the bad was AWFUL. 

Minnesota sent him packing because he kept having off the field issues and run ins with the law. I don’t recall him being as big a locker room cancer as some made him out to be. He was truly a cancer in Oakland, and it totally makes sense why they dumped him. New England has always confused me because his teammates spoke highly of him. Maybe it’s just an example of Belichick getting rid of him a year early, because when he came back home he was washed.

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I know I'm in the minority in how far I go with this, but personally I have no problem holding guys like Moss and TO out of the HOF because of their poisonous attitudes.  Both those guys ruined entire seasons for multiple NFL teams because of their locker room bullshit.  That's not Hall of Fame material to me.  Now if you want to argue that they are so overwhelmingly qualified that even if you penalize them for that, they still need to go in, that's fine.  I personally penalize them quite strongly for ruining their teams, but other people seem to be more forgiving in this regard. 

That seems overly harsh to me. I can understand making them suffer and wait, but denying top 5 talents at their positions is a bridge too far in my book, so long as they didn’t beat their wives or kill someone or something. I think you’d have a stronger case to keep Ray Lewis out than you would Moss and TO.

Also, I wonder if we put too much emphasis on locker room cancer guy. It’s common to see years after the event teammates speak out and say it was all overblown. Idk, just a thought.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

40 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

*cough* Stickum *cough*

Sorry, couldn't resist.

He when I say your notification in this thread I was 100% sure it was going to be for calling Brady the so called GOAT.

[Maithanet]

6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

There’s no need to get personal. I looked at his combine and read an article about it and the take away point is that he had average NFL speed. I spent another 15 minutes or so looking at more articles and they agree with you that he is 4.5, but at the back end. The two things that I kept seeing is that his 4.59 40 is probably the most accurate one and that nobody outside of his college coach has him at sub 4.55. Let me put that into perspective for you: I once ran a 4.48. Granted, that is my only sub 4.5 40, but I regularly ran sub 4.55 40’s. The two fastest guys I ever played with ran legit 4.45 40’s, and I never came close to beating them, and that was with a difference of only .1 seconds. The difference between Moss and Rice is .34. He would have dusted Rice in his prime.

Is that hand timed?  I don't put a lot of credence in hand timed 40 times, the inaccuracy is at least 0.2 seconds, which is almost 5% of the race.  Hell, someone with a hand timer said I ran a 10.9 100m back in high school, and I know I was nowhere near that fast. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

Speaking of 40 vs field...

Lamaar Jackson refused to run a 40, citing tape if you wanted to gauge his speed.

Someone's gonna take this kid. And I'm going to be a torn creature. Who do y'all think snaps him up?

I'm dreading a Miami or Jacksonville destination, 'cause I'd hate to root for them.

I could see Arizona, Buffalo, and Baltimore going for him early before he's in the range of New Orleans, Minnesota, NE, Jacksonville.

 

If four QBs go in the top 5, there’s no chance he makes it past 15. If only three have gone when the Cardinals pick, he’ll slip, but I suspect a team with an aging QB like the Saints and the Steelers would grab and stash him for a year or two, which is probably the ideal situation (and I think it makes the most sense for the Steelers. With a rookie QB contract, they can afford to pay Bell and Brown).

42 minutes ago, briantw said:

As for Jackson, I just saw that he completely bombed the Wonderlic, and I wonder if that impacts his draft stock.  

Have you ever taken it, because I have twice and it feels like a joke. The first time I took it I got a 19 because I wanted to get each question right, and I only missed one of them. Realizing that it just wants you to answer as many as you can as quick as possible, I finished the entire test with a few second to spare and got a 32. I don’t think it really means that much, but I don’t think very highly of these kinds of tests. For example, the LSAT, the test you take to get into law school, seems like it does a good job of predicting how you will perform in school and a god awful job of predicting how you will be as an actual lawyer. I know a lot of people who aced it who flamed out quickly after law school and a lot of people who did OK on it and became great lawyers.

[DanteGabriel]

6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

He when I say your notification in this thread I was 100% sure it was going to be for calling Brady the so called GOAT.

I'm not the staunchest of Brady's defenders. I do believe the QB GOAT question has been answered, but I'm not going to burn a lot of outrage defending the NFL's Gwyneth Paltrow.

Regarding your previous post, commenting on how much the Pats talked up Moss while he was there:

1. Most of what I saw talked up his football IQ, not his work ethic. But if they did praise his dedication (and who knows, he might have really worked at it when even the Jamarcus Russell era Raiders gave up on him), then...

2. Highly likely they were pumping his tires to keep him happy on his team-friendly contract. Jason Whitlock compared it to being very sweet with a crazy girlfriend. And as soon as Moss started talking about the next contract, he got dealt.

[Bronn Stone]

Big deal.  I once ran a sub 4.2 ten yard dash.  But only once.

[briantw]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Have you ever taken it, because I have twice and it feels like a joke. The first time I took it I got a 19 because I wanted to get each question right, and I only missed one of them. Realizing that it just wants you to answer as many as you can as quick as possible, I finished the entire test with a few second to spare and got a 32. I don’t think it really means that much, but I don’t think very highly of these kinds of tests. For example, the LSAT, the test you take to get into law school, seems like it does a good job of predicting how you will perform in school and a god awful job of predicting how you will be as an actual lawyer. I know a lot of people who aced it who flamed out quickly after law school and a lot of people who did OK on it and became great lawyers.

I won't disagree that the test feels like a joke.  That said, while it's not a very good indicator of success, it's been a remarkably good indicator of failure at the QB position.  There just aren't any highly successful QBs in the modern era who scored below twenty.  I believe the only one within the past twenty years to succeed with a sub-20 score was Donovan McNabb, and he's been retired for almost a decade now.  Prior to that, you had guys like Marino and Bradshaw, but they played in a totally different era, so it's hard to draw much of anything from their scores.

The baseline for real NFL success seems to be at about 25.  Of current QBs, only two (Cam Newton and Derek Carr) have been successful below that line.  This is not including rookies Watson or Mahomes, as there's just not enough evidence to call either guy a success or failure at this point.  It's also worth noting that the average score of Super Bowl winning QBs who are currently playing is 30.7, and that's without weighting for multiple wins by Brady (33) and Eli (39).

The way I tend to look at it is that, at the higher end, the test is a crapshoot.  You basically just want to see a guy get a 25 or better, but the test alone won't tell you whether someone who scores that well will be any good.  However, scoring below twenty is a massive red flag, and there's basically zero evidence of a modern QB succeeding in the NFL with a score that low.  

Does that mean that Jackson won't succeed?  No, of course not.  There can always be outliers.  But I also wouldn't bet on it at this point.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

41 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Is that hand timed?  I don't put a lot of credence in hand timed 40 times, the inaccuracy is at least 0.2 seconds, which is almost 5% of the race.  Hell, someone with a hand timer said I ran a 10.9 100m back in high school, and I know I was nowhere near that fast. 

The overwhelming majority I ran in HS were done by hand, including the 4.48, but you will never take that away from me.  Our school did have more resources than most though so we were lucky enough to go down to the U of M and use their gear at the end of each summer training before two a days started, which included more accurate ways of measuring your times. Before my junior year I was in the low 4.6 to low 4.7 range and before my senior year it was between the mid to high 4.5 and low 4.6 range. I'm like 99% sure the best I got there was a 4.57. The two other guys I mentioned were sub 4.5 every time I saw them run. Funny thing is one of them was really overweight. He had pro level talent and a horrific diet and work ethic. I know hand timed tests are less accurate, but our S&C coach was pretty accurate and he'd tape us and compare the two. 

It's funny you mentioned the 100m. I was really fast in short bursts, but I was god awful at any distance beyond 50m. The handful of times I broke off really long runs I was praying the other team quit cause I could get caught by a better distance runner.