Would Balon attacking the Westerlands really change anything?

[Bernie Mac]

5 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

casualties from what army ?

Casualties from the Westerland navy and the well defended settlements on the coast. Do you really not understand about warfare? Boats that sink tend to lose all the soldiers on board. 

 

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Robb had crushed Jaimie and Stafford's armies with mass causalities

He sent many of the fleeing, we see some of the remnants of that army with Daven in AFFC. 

 He went on to tell how the remnants of Ser Stafford's host had fallen back on Lannisport. 

Attacking well defended castles causes casualties, heck even defending poorly defended castles like the Crag causes casualties as Robb found out. 

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and Tywin had 20,000 in Harrenhall , what was left in the Westerlands to fight the Iron Born ?

The armies that Daven and Forley have, the garrisons at castles on the coast richer and more valuable than the Crag (which even that seemed to have around 100 men). 

If the plan was too plunder settlements the Ironborn first need to battle the Lannister navy and then battle the defenders of those castles, something that Robb was unwilling to do on his own. 

 

5 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Do you honestly think that Robb was worried about what remains of the Lannister's army in the Westerlands?

Why are you asking that? Can you quote the passage in my post were I reference Robb's fear? 

5 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

the only reason he kept moving was because he knew that he could not take Lannisport or Casterly Rock

It is a standard battle tactic of guerrilla warfare. It is common sense on Robb and the Blackfish's part. 

5 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

and he knew that there was zero chance that any army would be coming out of Lannisport anytime soon so he kept moving to plunder as much we could to destroy as much  of Tywin's resources as he could get his hands on .

Which was very little. Some goats and a few mines one of which was in Castamere. 

If Robb truly wanted to cause Tywin to break he would have focused on nobles not peasants. 

5 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

We must be reading a different story if you think that Daven or Prester would even think about going to battle with Robb after the destruction he laid upon them at the Battle of Oxcross. 

And I don't think everyone is in as awe of Robb as you are. From what we have read about Daven there is nothing to suggest that he would not want to take on the man who killed his father. Now whether he would have won is an entirely different matter, but the idea that he was unwilling to fight Robb is not really backed up in the books. 

[Blackfish Tully]

14 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

And I don't think everyone is in as awe of Robb as you are. From what we have read about Daven there is nothing to suggest that he would not want to take on the man who killed his father. Now whether he would have won is an entirely different matter, but the idea that he was unwilling to fight Robb is not really backed up in the books. 

I bet the soldiers that were at Oxcross and survived to fall back to Lannisport were in awe of Robb and the Northmen considering how completely they were defeated . . Maybe Daven would be willing to fight Robb (though we have not seen him do anything but lay siege to Riverrun) but who would join him? you think the soldiers that were at Oxcross would want another shot at the Northerners? Robb had only 6000 men and the remnants of Jaimie's army was at the Golden Tooth and the remnants of Stafford were at Lannisport plus all the rest of the men in all the other Westerland castles and towns (all those men who you  state would fight the Iron Born if they attacked) so why did we never hear about any attempt by Daven to reorganize and attack the Northerers ? why did Tywin have to make the move back to the Westerlands ? was 6000 men more the Westerland Lords to handle by themselves or were they too afraid ?

[Blackfish Tully]

14 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Casualties from the Westerland navy and the well defended settlements on the coast. Do you really not understand about warfare? Boats that sink tend to lose all the soldiers on board. 

 

He sent many of the fleeing, we see some of the remnants of that army with Daven in AFFC. 

 He went on to tell how the remnants of Ser Stafford's host had fallen back on Lannisport. 

Attacking well defended castles causes casualties, heck even defending poorly defended castles like the Crag causes casualties as Robb found out. 

The armies that Daven and Forley have, the garrisons at castles on the coast richer and more valuable than the Crag (which even that seemed to have around 100 men). 

If the plan was too plunder settlements the Ironborn first need to battle the Lannister navy and then battle the defenders of those castles, something that Robb was unwilling to do on his own. 

. 

Robb destroyed a Lannister army , took the Crag and Ashemark  and the Greatjon captured the gold mines at Nunn's Deep , Castamere and Pendric Hills and Galbert Glover and Rickard Stark raided along the coast , all of that with only 6000 men , what could they have done with the 20,000 iron Born ? At the very least they could cut off Lannisport and Casterly Rock from any supplies and when Tywin came west he would be facing a much larger army then Robb's 6000.

[aryagonnakill#2]

16 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Casualties from the Westerland navy and the well defended settlements on the coast. Do you really not understand about warfare? Boats that sink tend to lose all the soldiers on board. 

 

He sent many of the fleeing, we see some of the remnants of that army with Daven in AFFC. 

 He went on to tell how the remnants of Ser Stafford's host had fallen back on Lannisport. 

Attacking well defended castles causes casualties, heck even defending poorly defended castles like the Crag causes casualties as Robb found out. 

The armies that Daven and Forley have, the garrisons at castles on the coast richer and more valuable than the Crag (which even that seemed to have around 100 men). 

If the plan was too plunder settlements the Ironborn first need to battle the Lannister navy and then battle the defenders of those castles, something that Robb was unwilling to do on his own. 

 

Why are you asking that? Can you quote the passage in my post were I reference Robb's fear? 

It is a standard battle tactic of guerrilla warfare. It is common sense on Robb and the Blackfish's part. 

Which was very little. Some goats and a few mines one of which was in Castamere. 

If Robb truly wanted to cause Tywin to break he would have focused on nobles not peasants. 

And I don't think everyone is in as awe of Robb as you are. From what we have read about Daven there is nothing to suggest that he would not want to take on the man who killed his father. Now whether he would have won is an entirely different matter, but the idea that he was unwilling to fight Robb is not really backed up in the books. 

We are explicitly told that after Robb beat the force at Oxcross that no one in the west had the strength to challenge him.  His force split into pieces and moved with impunity.

[Blackfish Tully]

Back to the question of whether or not Balon attacking the West would change anything , there is a lot that could change . Tywin may have to head West a long time before he did in the original story so his alliance with the Tyrell's may not happen , Robb would be in a stronger position so less chance of a betrayal from Roose and the Freys , the Tyrells would hesitate to join the Lannisters if Tywin cannot defeat Robb and the Iron Born in the West. Stannis may not have to worry about Tywin if he is in West fighting Robb and some of the Reach Lords may be more likely to return to the Reach if the Iron Born are raiding so close to their lands .

[snow is the man]

no you are mistaken. If the north hadn't been attacked while rob was in the riverlands he would have been much better off. He lost winterfell and half the north and had no way to help his people. This would kill morale among the northman. Also this likely led to bolton joining the lannisters because after rob lost the north he would have seen the writing on the wall. 

Also I don't think tywin would have been able to ignore the threat to his coast. He would have had to reinforce those area's at the expense of others which would only help rob and his men. I don't think tyrell would join tywin if he looked like he was going to lose or that their was a real possibility of it.he would have either joined stannis or tried for the throne himself or just stood aside like dorne and the vale did.

And with rob not depressed about bran and rickon dying (at least he thought so) he may have not slept with jeyne pool thus making the freys stay loyal.

 

So at best the boltons wouldn't have joined the freys and without the boltons helping the red wedding would have not had enough men to do it. Thus no red wedding.

I am not saying rob would have won but he might have. The iron born taking the north was the beggining of the end for rob

 

 

[ScaledBird]

Firstly what changes if he Ironborn Invasion of the North no longer happens. 

1) Jamie is not freed as Bran and Rickon are not belived to be dead by Catelyn. This would mean Karstarks do not abandon Robbs cause to find him.

2) Robb does not need to re-take the North, the reason he needed the Frey army (to help take Moat Caitlin and have access to the Neck)

3) WInterfell still holds Frey hostages so Walder Frey may be a bi more cautious 

4) Robb will not be comforted by Jeyne Westerling as he does not here about Theon killing Bran and Rickon blaming himself for sending Theon home

5) Ramsay Snow is still a prisoner at Winterfell. I doubt this would keep Roose from looking for better alternative but if Robb is winning why would he jump ship? yeah he does not like the Starks and wants more power but he is an opportunist and not stupid

6) No rushed Frey wedding (either due to no need for Frey alliance or no betrayel by Robb) so Roose still holds Harenhal possibly

7) Arya is brought to Riverun by BWB or Sandor and reunites with family- Now the truth that the Lannisters only hold Sansa and not Arya, Bran and Rickon are safe Sansa value as an heir goes way down, would a trade be now be open for the Lannister Squires?

8)I doubt Sansa will be wed to Tyrion as she is no longer the key to the North

Secondly what changes if the Ironborn attack the Westerlands

1) Robb may now have the strength to take Castely Rock rather than leading Tywin on a merry chase. But this is not definite

2)Tywin would still make it back to Kings Landing, and I believe Tyrells still join them as Mace wants Margery to be Queen of Westeros and not the North (In ASOS he sees the North as worth abandoning to gain support of Iron born) So Stannis still loses.

3)Westerlands could now be held by Iron born while Robb goes back to the Riverlands 

4)Tywin will need to battle or sue for peace. Sending Tyrels to battle and keeping Lanniser men in reserve would help slow Tyrell rise and keep him safe- I doubt he would be in mortal danger but Robb could beat him in battle sending him to a retreat improving Northern/Trident morale

5) Marriage to Margery goes ahead- Joff dies still Tyrion set up- Tyrion does not escape as Jamie is in Riverrun- he dies or is sent to the Wall He does not get in Aegon's head so they head to Dany for original plan

6)Littlefinger has Sansa but Robb is winning so it is to dangerous to keep her in the Eyrie with her Aunt- His best move would be to marry Lysa, convince her to join Robb, keep Harenhal and use Sansa to get more power- made Lord Paramount of the Eyrie (then kill Lysa) wait for more chaos in the future

7)North, Westerlands, Vale, Riverlands combined against Kings Landing and Highgarden. Margery not married to Tommen yet, Tyrells have a chance to jump ship- Lannisters destroyed. Westerlands now part of Iron Islands Kingdom, North and Riverlands One Kingdom, Eyrie made into its own Kingdom, making Littlefinger a King (good match for Sansa if Lysa dies) Crownlands were never important before Aegon landed-

8) Stannis threatened Robb- Tyrells need something so Storms End joins to The Reach so Tyrells can be Kings of the South

What about the Nights Watch?

1) Bran would use Robbs remaining men (that tried to retake winterfell back from Theon) to stop wildling invasion. Jon elected Lord Commander- added bonus- his family run the North so he can convince them of Others threat- Stannis cannot regroup by taking North0 he carries on burning men in Dragonstone

2)Robb returns from war and listens to Jon about threat- Dragonstone Invaded for dragonglass- Fight for the Dawn happens as Dany lands, she saves Westeros with dragons all agree to bend the knee

 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On ‎3‎/‎27‎/‎2018 at 0:25 PM, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Let’s assume that Balon wasn’t a complete idiot and was persuaded by Theon to raid the Westerlands. Would that really have changed much in the grand scheme of things? Tywin and the Tyrells still would have made their bargain, and this would still have persuaded the Boltons and the Freys to turn cloaks. Maybe we’d still have the Starks in Winterfell, but the Stark and Tully forces would still have been broken and destroyed with Robb dead. Roose would likely still have gotten Winterfell and the North and this time he would make sure that Bran and Rickon would be killed. 

 

Or am I mistaken?

Robb would not have slept with Jeyne Westerling keeping the Freys in the Stark/ Tully  alliance. Tywin would be forced to sent his forces to the Westerlands to either protect his base or liberate it , then Stannis would have marched on King's Landing .

[Free Northman Reborn]

At a high level, assuming no major upsets or surprises, it gives you the following balance of power after the Battle of the Camps:

North+Vale+Ironborn: Approximately 60k men in the field.

Lannisters: Approximately 20k men in the field with Tywin.

Stannis in charge of the better part of Renly's host: approximately 50k men in the field.

Vale and Dorne: Neutral, with a combined 50k or so men. This force is far more likely to join with Robb than with the Lannisters or Tyrells.

From there, some kind of peace will likely be negotiated, splitting the realm up, as the various factions are fairly well balanced.

[Arthur Peres]

Robb would still atack the westerlands, Oxcross would still happen, and Robb would still raid the Westerlands. He needed to steal the livestocks of the Westerlands to feed the Riverlands.

Balon atacking the Westerlands, means that fair island would probably be anexed by the ironborns, Lannisport Sacked and the coast of the Westerlands would be pillaged.

Tywin would still be lured back to the Westerlands, but now I think that the battle of the fords is a do or die for him. Or he go through Edmure or he would be forced to acept Robb's terms. Robb already captured Jaime and 2 of Kevans sons, he made Tywin a fool in the whipering woods, then crushed the second Lannist host in Oxcross, Lannisport taken by the ironbon, Stannis marching on Kings Landing. Harys Swyft and Leo Lefford were already pressuring Tywin to sue for peace after the Whispering woods, and the mercenaries of Vargo are turning coats, if Tywin can't win one significant battle soon his cause is lost. 

If Tywin still loses the battle of the fords than he will be forced to sue for peace on Robbs terms and maybe he would be able to deal with Stannis o his own(I do not think that the Tyrells would jump on this sinking ship but I could be wrong). If Tywin wins the battle of the fords, Stannis takes KL and Tywin will stil be forced to submit to Stannis.

 

[cpg2016]

On 3/30/2018 at 7:35 PM, Bernie Mac said:

If Robb truly wanted to cause Tywin to break he would have focused on nobles not peasants. 

It's one and the same.  Tywin is damn lucky he doesn't face a mass revolt by his nobles.  If Tywin cannot defend the land from which those nobles derive their wealth and status, then they won't uphold their end of the feudal contract either.  He had to go back West once Robb starts pillaging, and that does not mean taking castles.  It means making off with movable wealth and burning the rest.

The only reason Tywin doesn't lose everything is because he manages to hold the throne and makes it obvious that he'll have the power, via the Tyrells, to evict Robb.  There is a reason he abandoned every strategic goal he'd been fighting for to scurry home and protect his vassals - politically, he has to.

[cpg2016]

14 hours ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

Robb would not have slept with Jeyne Westerling keeping the Freys in the Stark/ Tully  alliance. Tywin would be forced to sent his forces to the Westerlands to either protect his base or liberate it , then Stannis would have marched on King's Landing .

Stop including the Freys.  First off, they are going to betray Robb no matter what if he starts losing, this was confirmed by GRRM.  Robb sleeping with and marrying Jeyne has literally nothing to do with Walder's actions, except to make his "revenge" more savage.  We've heard this from the author and it's made clear by the text.

Second, they aren't particularly important.  Yes, they have a few thousand men, which is nice.  But it isn't like they are the Tyrells or Tullys, who can call on enough vassal troops to make a true difference in the war.  The Freys represent and important, but small part of the Riverlands.  Far more important is Lysa keeping the Vale out of the war, for example.

[Chris Mormont]

Balon joining Robb changes everything.

• Winterfell is not captured, Bran and Rickon are safe
• Robb does not need Jeyne's comforting, thus he is still engaged to Roslin, thus the Freys do not abandon Robb
• Jamie is not released, so the Karstarks do not abandon Robb
• Tywin must break through to get to the West and defend the Rock
• so Tywin is not there to save Kings Landing
• Does Mace Tyrell rush to defend KL with the Lannisters and the Crown looking so vulnerable
• If Kings Landing falls to Stannis, it becomes Tywin against everyone, Robb can move on Tywin and sue for peace.

[cpg2016]

On 3/28/2018 at 1:54 PM, UnFit Finlay said:

I always think Balon is a bit hard one by with this. I mean,it's a choice between taking on one of the most seasoned, and notorious, commanders in Westeros or an unproven teenage boy. If it's me then I'm going after Robb every time.

Those are 100% not his only options.  Doing nothing, is one.  Declaring for Tywin and not actually attacking the North is another.

The whole point is that Balon declares independence, and tries to conquer parts of the North, despite the obvious impossibility of that working.  Smart people in the Iron Islands know they cannot hold the North against whoever is Warden of the North.  And the Iron Throne just recently proved it could crush the Iron Fleet and the rest of the ironborn with contemptuous ease.

Balon is an idiot for thinking the entire harebrained scheme would work, in addition to his method of execution. 

To your second question, it comes from So Spake Martin.  It would be difficult to be clearer than the below - Walder Frey was going to be on whichever side won, no matter what he promised.  The butchery of the Red Wedding was due to the "insult" Robb gave him, but those Frey swords and support weren't long for the Stark cause either way.  Which basically invalidates every single "Robb was an idiot" theory out there.

"What if" questions are impossible to answer with any certainty... knowing old Lord Walder's character, it is likely he would have searched for some way to disentangle himself from a losing cause sooner or later, but his desertion would likely have taken a less savage form. The Red Wedding was motivated by his desire to wash out the dishonor that was done him...

[James Steller]

On ‎2018‎-‎04‎-‎03 at 2:12 PM, Chris Mormont said:

• If Kings Landing falls to Stannis, it becomes Tywin against everyone, Robb can move on Tywin and sue for peace.

Much as I like Stannis, I refuse to believe that the Tyrells and he would ever work together. There's far too much bad blood, even without Stannis' marriage into House Florent. The Tyrells would fight Stannis until one side was dead or removed from power.

[The Drunkard]

5 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Much as I like Stannis, I refuse to believe that the Tyrells and he would ever work together. There's far too much bad blood, even without Stannis' marriage into House Florent. The Tyrells would fight Stannis until one side was dead or removed from power.

I think they would. Mace made peace with the Martells despite their ancestral rivalry and Oberyn literally crippling his heir, so I think he'd work with Stannis, and for Stannis' part he never actually expresses any hate for the Tyrells beyond the general "knights of summer" critique that applies to every house in the Reach and Stormlands. With most of his chivalry already following Stannis I think Mace would follow the path of least resistance and submit. 

[Chris Mormont]

1 hour ago, James Steller said:

Much as I like Stannis, I refuse to believe that the Tyrells and he would ever work together. There's far too much bad blood, even without Stannis' marriage into House Florent. The Tyrells would fight Stannis until one side was dead or removed from power.

I never said the Tyrells would join Stannis, I asked:

 

On 4/3/2018 at 2:12 PM, Chris Mormont said:

Does Mace Tyrell rush to defend KL with the Lannisters and the Crown looking so vulnerable

How does Mace handle Littlefinger's attempt to broker Margery and Joff's marriage if the Lannisters are losing?  Perhaps he takes his army and goes home especially considering if the Iron Born are near Lannisport.  That would be too close to the Shields and the Mander for me.  Mace would have to make a choice, go East and defend KL or go west and defend Highgarden.  I think he would chose to go West.

 

[Arthur Peres]

8 hours ago, Chris Mormont said:

How does Mace handle Littlefinger's attempt to broker Margery and Joff's marriage if the Lannisters are losing?  Perhaps he takes his army and goes home especially considering if the Iron Born are near Lannisport.  That would be too close to the Shields and the Mander for me.  Mace would have to make a choice, go East and defend KL or go west and defend Highgarden.  I think he would chose to go West.

 

There are a few problems with Mace remaining neutral:

1- Loras and Tarly killed Stannis mensager

2- Loras and Tarly killed the mens the were willing to go with Stannis.

If Mace remains neutral and returns to Highgarden some of his bannermen present in the Bitterbridge might still join Stannis since he becomes a favorite to win against a very weakened Tywin, and Mace already crossed Stannis twice by declaring for Renly and killing his mensager later.

Stannis can be pragmatic when needed, but a King Stannis might be in a position to punish Mace later on.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

There are a few problems with Mace remaining neutral:

1- Loras and Tarly killed Stannis mensager

2- Loras and Tarly killed the mens the were willing to go with Stannis.

If Mace remains neutral and returns to Highgarden some of his bannermen present in the Bitterbridge might still join Stannis since he becomes a favorite to win against a very weakened Tywin, and Mace already crossed Stannis twice by declaring for Renly and killing his mensager later.

Stannis can be pragmatic when needed, but a King Stannis might be in a position to punish Mace later on.

They killed the Florent infantry that were at Bitterbridge (at least Tarly did). The messengers Stannis sent were imprisoned, as befit their rank as nobles and knights. That said, yeah your point stands.

[Corvo the Crow]

On 03.04.2018 at 8:33 PM, Arthur Peres said:

Balon atacking the Westerlands, means that fair island would probably be anexed by the ironborns, Lannisport Sacked and the coast of the Westerlands would be pillaged.

Funny fact, Fair Island's current ruling house is of Ironborn origin.

As for the what if, not going into much detail;

 no events in the North, possibly including the Hornwood incident.

No betrayals, including Karstarks'.

Tywin has to strike for West earlier or retreats toward KL since he would be facing Edmure with an emboldened Roose behind him with Robb possibly not in the west but somewhere in the RL as a third army to think of.