Arthur Peres Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 43 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: That's a very generous interpretation of Walder's actions. He's known, as Tywin said, to delay and wait to see who wins. Just because he says he intended to march to help Riverrun, doesn't mean he was actually going to. He's not exactly an honest man. Walder has no reason to block his way...except he does block his way, until he's offered a deal too good to refuse. Starks are also not his liege lord, he do not own Robb anything,it's not out of the blue to him ask something from Robb. He also not only let Robb pass but also gave him his army. Robb at this point still untested, and outnumbered by the Lannisters forces, still is a risk move. I do not blame Walder for wanting insurance if things go south. By tying up his house to the starks he at least gains refuge in the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shouldve Taken The Black Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Arthur Peres said: Starks are also not his liege lord, he do not own Robb anything,it's not out of the blue to him ask something from Robb. He also not only let Robb pass but also gave him his army. Robb at this point still untested, and outnumbered by the Lannisters forces, still is a risk move. I do not blame Walder for wanting insurance if things go south. The point is that he was refusing to allow aid to pass to his actual liege lord. Listen, all you are saying may have an element of truth to it, if you were not to take into account what we know of Walder Frey. He has a reputation for staying out of things and waiting to see who comes out on top. Catelyn and Tywin recognised it, Hoster knew it. We know he did exactly this at the Trident. Seen in this light, his keeping his men at home, and his refusal to allow the Riverlands' allies to cross without a deal are very obviously the act of someone willing to sit it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Peres Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said: The point is that he was refusing to allow aid to pass to his actual liege lord. Listen, all you are saying may have an element of truth to it, if you were not to take into account what we know of Walder Frey. He has a reputation for staying out of things and waiting to see who comes out on top. Catelyn and Tywin recognised it, Hoster knew it. We know he did exactly this at the Trident. Seen in this light, his keeping his men at home, and his refusal to allow the Riverlands' allies to cross without a deal are very obviously the act of someone willing to sit it out. Even if Walder was a coward he still was expected to look up for himself, the Starks offered him a better deal than the nothing that Tywin ofered them. Tywin expecting them to remain neutral was foolish and wishful thinking. We are changing the subject of this discussion. It started with Tywin being lucky and he was. He won the war after losing decisive most of his battles and getting a strong ally out of nowhere while his enemies went suicidal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bernie Mac Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 18 hours ago, Arthur Peres said: Ok I agree with you on Tyrion, but don't really see Stannis as lucky, Of course he is a priestess who can summon magical assassins decides to support him the Reach and Stormlands rebel against the Crown, making it weak and giving him hope as without Renly (plot device) rebelling Stannis would be stuck with only 5k troops he not only survives the battle of blackwater but fails to be captured is offered the support of the Manderlys, a port city with its own navy, in return for Davos retrieving Rickon when freezing his ass off the bankers of Braavos, turn up out of the blue and offer him huge sums of money to continue the war Stannis, like all the commanders, including Tywin and Robb, has had bad luck and good luck. The fact that he is still alive, despite starting off as the outsider with the least amount of support while Renly, Robb, Joffrey, Balon and Tywin have all kicked the bucket is testament to his fortune. Quote and what Joffrey did was a shittystorm for everybody Tywin is not particulary unlucky for it, if anything he started the whole war by overreacting. Of course he is unlucky. With Ned he had in possession the ruler of the North, the person who had the authority to tell the Northern army to go home, or even to support the new king. Joffrey acted like an idiot and killed this hostage. It was hugely unlucky for Tywin, I'm perplexed how anyone can not understand this. Quote What do you expected to happen when Robert comes out of him hunting, finds out he was cuckolded by his wife with her brother and his father in law that he hates is breaking the kings peace. If Robert survives Tywin is done. How is Tywin done? He resides in Casterly Rock, a thousand miles from Kings Landing. What happenss under Robert's roof is not in his control. And of course there is the fact that Ned didn't really have any actual evidence and every time he had an issue with the Lannisters, such as with the Direwolves, Jaime being Warden, Jaime attacking him and Cat taking Tyrion, Robert came down on the side of his wife. Quote Kevan already counted the Arryns as hostile I quoted the author, not a character. You'll forgive me for thinking that he is aware of what would have happened. Plus you are quoting Kevan from a later chapter, when the majority of the realm has rebelled. Before that they were confident that neither the North or Vale would get involved. Quote The Blackfish is suprised and angry when Lysa refused to help the Tully No, he is not surprised, certainly disappointed, which is natural, but not surprised. "It will not happen, sire," said the Blackfish. "Cat is right. Lady Lysa is too fearful to admit an army to the Vale. Any army. The Bloody Gate will remain closed." Quote That still was taken as a ofense in the Vale, Of course, but your original point was incorrect, the position was not usurped nor was it a cause of war and it was something that was later used to help pacify the Vale when Robin was awarded the position. Quote In the eyrie Lysa summoned every knight of the Vale and in front of everyone acused the Lannisters of killing Jon Arryn. Is very diferent a acusation of murder from gossip. She accused Tyrion, gave him a trial and the gods found him innocent and then released him. She, very clearly, had no intention of going to war over it. Quote The Lannister alredy started a war against a region that was their allies, No, unofficially the war was started by the daughter of Hoster Tully abducting the king's brother-in-law with the help of riverland vassals. Officially it started when Edmure sent 4,000 Riverland soldiers to the Westerlands the first battle, at the Golden Tooth, occurred. Tywin was very careful in his actions, he could clearly argue that he was not the original aggressor. Quote The vale had just as much reason as the North to go to war with the Lannisters. No, not really. Their Lord was imprisoned while in contrast the lords of the Vale accepted the elderly Arryn's death. Though this is immaterial, Lysa was well known in the capital, judging her to be cautious and to refuse to go to war was what people in the know expected, including her own sister and uncle, it was only the nephew who had never met his aunt who was under the impression that she would follow him to war. Quote Walder always intended to help fight the Lannisters, but just as Jason Mallister(to give a exemple of a loyal bannermen that no one would doubt) he didn't assembled his army fast enough. "I called my swords, yes I did, here they are, you saw them on the walls. It was my intent to march as soon as all my strength was assembled. Well, to send my sons. I am well past marching myself, Lady Catelyn. Tell her, Jared. Tell her that was my intent." It was only after Edmure being crushed and captured that it become a lost cause, than he jumped ship. "Is it my fault that your foll brother lost his battle before we could march? I am told the, Kingslayer went through him like an axe through ripe cheese. Why should my boys hurry south to die? All those who did go south are running north again." None of that alters my argument. With the majority of the riverlands fallen Walder was expected to do nothing, that is entirely in his character. Supporting Robb was not. I'm really not sure what point you are trying to make here. Walder by nature is cautious, him choosing the rebels was out of character, ingenious negotiating from Cat (or simply a plot necessity by the author) does not change the fact that this was a move that is not in line with what he had been told about Walder before the meeting or what we know about him after the meeting. 18 hours ago, Arthur Peres said: When Robb shows up with a fresh army read to fight giving new hope Walder has no reason to block his way Of course he does, he even points it out. Tywin was now the Hand, Riverrun was close to falling and no other kingdom had rebelled. In effect Robb was rebelling against Westeros, it was not in Walder's character to become a rebel against a larger opponent. 18 hours ago, Arthur Peres said: Walder marrieng to Westerlands Houses is not out of the ordinary, Again, what is your point here? And Lord Walder was always friendlier with Casterly Rock than my father would have liked. His closeness to the West was a worry for Hoster, the fact that the largest faction in the Twins is the children and grandchildren of Amerie Crakehall, that Walder's heir's second marriage was to a Lydden, his second son to a Lannister, his son Lothar (Walder's steward) to a Lefford and his 3rd daughter to a son of Lord Brax shows the closeness of these ties. Among Walder's brood we have two Tywin Frey's, a Tytos, Tion, Tysane a Cersei and a Jaime. At the start of the war Walder had at least one son, one daughter, seven grandsons an two great grandsons in the Westerlands. The Frey's closeness to the West is noteworthy. Quote Robb gathered his army when Eddard was arrested and he already was in Moat Caillin when Edmure lost the battle at Riverrun. What Tywin expected Robb to do there? Turn around and go North? Tywin did not expect the North to get involved. Cat was left in charge of the North, not Robb, and the intel that Tywin had was that she had Tyrion and was heading north. Plus Ned the hostage was his trump. Quote Cat was smart to trick everyone about her location Was she? What did it earn her? She lost her prisoner, lost control of the North and saw her husband die. She gambled and lost. Quote but Tywin was also dumb to ignore everything that happen during that time. (Eddard being arrested and Robb marching south) mobiles don't exist in westeros. Quote Tywin was arrogant and was turned into a fool by Robb. Certainly arrogant, not sure how that makes him a fool. Does Robb, Cat, Brynden, Stannis or anyone else think Tywin is a fool for one bad judgement? 17 hours ago, Arthur Peres said: Didn't Tywin send ravens to Jaime informing that he was marching against Robb or it was only in the TV Show? TV show. This is why your argument is all over the place. Quote Renly got more than enough man to deal with Tywin and Stannis at the same time. You are underestimating the complexities of war. Tarly and the other Reach generals do not think it is as straightforward as you do. War is unpredictable at the best of times, a war with multiple factions is something that is impossible to predict, allowing Stannis to take Renly's capital weakens Renly. Quote But instead he decided to play king and make feast when he has 80k man with him and another 10k with Mace. eh? Do you expect him to attack before his army has been raised? That makes zero sense, especially when he has, potentially, an entire realm to take. Quote Then Stannis starts to siege SE with 5k man and renly decides to act... Even when Stannis killed Renly and got his cavalry he didn't think that he could take the castle... No, he knows he can take it but that it would take time. You are oversimplifying war, Renly was the clear favorite to beat Tywin but war is not a sport, it rarely comes down to two sides meeting at a prearranged venue and sorting it out in one game. It could have taken a year to beat Tywin. Quote The reason for Renly to act that way are awful. no, they are common sense. He has to take as few casualties as possible winning Kings Landing and against the Lannisters to be in a strong enough position to beat Robb and any other potential faction that may take advantage of the chaos of war. Quote KL is already starving, thanks to Renly's delay. It makes more sense for Renly to further delay and watch the Crown weaken rather than rush into battle. Quote He would have won, crushing Tywin and forcing Robb into the fold again. Stannis is a no-threat, no matter how good a general is he can't win a war without an army. I'm dumbfounded at how easy you think medieval warfare is. Quote This is Tywin lucky at it best. What does this statement even mean? Quote Stannis the most cynical lord decides to siege a castle that he has no chance of taking. It is Renly's capital, it is the source of his power. You might not understand this but the characters in the world do, just look how weak Robb became after his capital was taken. GRRM when asked why Storm's End was important in Robert's Rebellion answers clearly Storm's End was not geographically strategic, but it was the base of Robert's power, as important to House Baratheon as Winterfell was to the Starks. If it had fallen, Robert would have lost his home and his lands... and two of his brothers would have been hostages in enemy hands. All important chips. Also the fall of Storm's End might have convinced many of the storm lords supporting him that the time had come to bend the knee. So the castle was hardly unimportant. You are underestimating its importance. Stannis, Renly, Tarly, Tyrion and Tywin all recognize its importance. Quote Then Renly marching to relive a castle that is not under any threat and getting killed by magic. Yup, lucky for Stannis. He' be dead without magic saving his ass. Quote Tywin then gains 60k swords out of the nothing Not out of nothing, out of negotiation. Do you really not understand negotiation. Quote and his biggest threat vanishes into oblivion. This is the luckyest event in the series bar none. It is, but it was lucky for everyone, most of all Stannis. Quote you're talking about the situation after Blackwater. I'm talking about prior to that. Then perhaps you should have made it clear. All you wrote was his last three battles. Are we supposed to ignore what you wrote because you were thinking something else when you were typing? Quote The 3 battles that Tywin lost being Whispering Woods, Oxcross and then the Battle of the Red Fort. Excpept the battle of the Green Fork occurred at the same time as Whispering Wood Quote The first two ended with 2 of 3 Lannisters army and the third one ended with Tywin losing with heavy loses and also losing his biggest defensive position in the Riverlands. Please rewrite this sentence as I'm not sure what it means or what point you are trying to make. Quote Tywin after the Red Fort also lost Harenhall to Roose and held no castle in the Riverlands, Wait if this counts as a battle then so does the retaking of Darry. Quote he was forced to retreat to KL because he could go to the west nope, where did you get this information from? "When you stopped Lord Tywin on the Red Fork," said the Blackfish, "you delayed him just long enough for riders out of Bitterbridge to reach him with word of what was happening to the east. Lord Tywin turned his host at once, joined up with Matthis Rowan and Randyll Tarly near the headwaters of the Blackwater he turned East because he heard Kings Landing was being attacked, he was not originally heading in that direction. Quote and he couldn't go back to harenhall... Losing a battle when he outnumbers the enemy 2 to 1 and suffering heavy casualities in the process Where in the books does it claim he suffered heavy casualties? Tywin still has just under 20k after the battle of blacwater Do you smell the gold cloaks? There are near five thousand of them. My father's own sworn swords must account for another twenty thousand. And then there are the roses. Roses smell so sweet, don't they? Especially when there are so many of them. Fifty, sixty, seventy thousand roses, in the city or camped outside it Please tell me how many soldiers you think Tywin lost in the battle of the Fords and quote from the books how you came to your conclusion. Quote Tywin held nothing in the negotiation with the Tyrells, this was LF and Tyrion plot. Yup, subordinates. Do you not understand how command works? Be consistent with your arguments please, you are happy to call a defeat to other subordinates, like Stafford, as defeats for Tywin then do the same for the wins. You can't pick and choose what you want to count as command. Tywin appointed Tyrion, that is how command works. Quote Robb has the biggest bad lucky in the series, No, I'd say Renly did. Robb had a mixed bag, found a magical direwolf, gets the Freys to act out of character, multiple enemies don't use competent scouts or sentinels against him, his magical direwolf finds a hidden entrance into the well fortified Westerlands. Quote his aunt refused to fight with him, Nothing to do with luck. He could have sent her a raven asking for her support before he even left the North, he was told at Moat Cailin by his mother that he would not be getting it and still went to war. Quote his best friend betrayed him, nothing to do with luck. Theon is a Greyjoy, his family comes before his friends. and Robb choose to send him, ignoring the advice from his mother. Quote took his castle with 30 men, yup, again little to do with luck and more to do with Robb's poor planning and inexperience at war. The oldest were men grown, seventeen and eighteen years from the day of their naming. One was past twenty. Most were younger, sixteen or less. Bran watched them from the balcony of Maester Luwin's turret, listening to them grunt and strain and curse as they swung their staves and wooden swords. The yard was alive to the clack of wood on wood, punctuated all too often by thwacks and yowls of pain when a blow struck leather or flesh. Ser Rodrik strode among the boys, face reddening beneath his white whiskers, muttering at them one and all. Bran had never seen the old knight look so fierce. "No," he kept saying. "No. No. No." Yet given time … Ser Rodrik has the truth of it, we need men to walk the walls. Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around. Many will not come back to us, and we must needs find the men to take their places." Robb left his capital poorly defended, something that Tywin did not do to Casterly Rock or Lannisport, Renly did not do at Storm's End, Stannis did not do at Dragonstone or Robert did not do during Robert's Rebellion. Not only did Robb leave his capital exposed but he sent the Ironborn someone who knew Winterfell better than any of the new teenage defenders of Winterfell ever did. This was not down to poor luck, it was down to incompetence. Quote killed his brothers and heirs, no he didn't. Quote his bannemen (Bolton and Manderly) are fighting a civil war over the hornwood lands when The Ironborns are invading, when you strip your own country of enough soldiers to properly police itself then domestic rebellion and insurrection is always a possibility. This is not really down to luck, it was a common part of the medieval world, a king leaves country with the majority of his army and some ambitious lords will try to take advantage. Quote his mother frees his biggest hostage I agree, this was awful luck, nothing Robb could have done about this. Quote and he was killed by his second in command later... Leaders who seem incompetent suffer mutinies. This is less to do with luck and plain old circumstance. Though it should be pointed out that the Blackfish is Robb's second much like Kevan is Tywin's. Quote You're changing my words, I never said that Balon needed Robb's permission. I said that Robb offers the better oportunit for doing so. Robb offer's nothing tangible. If i tell you to go and become the manager at work I am not offering you anything. Quote Tywin had no streng in home, Sure he did. The West has a Navy, unlike the North, there was around 4k soldiers at the Golden Tooth with Prester Forley, Robb himself points out that Lannisport and Casterly Rock were too well defended that hiss 6k troops would be no match "Did you ever think to ask yourself why we remained in the west so long after Oxcross? You knew I did not have enough men to threaten Lannisport or Casterly Rock." Both Robb and Balon acknowledge there is strength in the West, what source are you getting your information from? Actually top put this further into perspective we saw how Robb ssstripped the North's capital of its soldiers while even the Westerlings, a pretty insignificant Westerland house has more defenders than Winterfell. Quote Robb run freely with his 6k for mounths without any oposition. Yes, chevauchee is a tactic for such a purpose. It is meant to make the enemy confused and usually overreact. The smartest thing the likes of Daven Lannister and Forley Prester to do was sit back. Quote CR just like SE is not easy to take, but many targest were still avaible for Balon. Balon was aware of this, or do you think this is brand new information that Balon was not privy to? Even being aware of this he still thought it was not worth the risk, especially as the North was a much easier target. Quote The north had much more men to defend itself than the westerlands Evidence for this? Quote and much less to gain. yup, Balon is aware of that. but like most predators he will pick the more vulnerable target which is less likely to fight back. Quote The north still had at least 2.000 under Rodrik Under 2k and this took months to raise from the entire North. The vastness of the North makes it weaker as it takes longer to raise hosts to deal with invaders. and here is where quality comes into play, the men with Rodrik were poorly trained, likely poorly equipped and were easily overwhelmed by a smaller force with Ramsay. Quote + 3.000 montain clan After winter, before winter they were preoccupied with farming and other important matters. Now that it is winter many are sacrificing themselves. and once again here is where quality comes into play, the fact that the fleeing Ironborn were able to rack up so many casualties against an army that outnumbered them more than 10-1 speaks to the quality and organization of these, mostly, farmers and sheperds. Quote + 800 Umbers + 600 Boltons under Ramsey + 450 Karstark + others Houses that didn't send all their forces with Robb such as Dustin and Ryswell, and the garrisons of the castles. Yeah, I have no idea what point you are trying to make here. No one claimed there was zero men left in the north, or that it was deprived of any soldiers, what was pointed out by Balon was that it was weaker than the West and nothing in the five books has shown him to be wrong in this assessment. Quote Balon invasion of the north let him captured Deepwood Motte and Moat Callin, from that he got nothing that was his plan, he points it out in the books, it is not some secret. Deepwood Motte was the stronghold of the Glovers. With both Robett and Galbart warring in the south, it would be lightly held, and once the castle fell the ironmen would have a secure base in the heart of the north. I should be the one sent to take Deepwood. He knew Deepwood Motte, he had visited the Glovers several times with Eddard Stark. "Victarion," Lord Balon said to his brother, "the main thrust shall fall to you. When my sons have struck their blows, Winterfell must respond. You should meet small opposition as you sail up Saltspear and the Fever River. At the headwaters, you will be less than twenty miles from Moat Cailin. The Neck is the key to the kingdom. Already we command the western seas. Once we hold Moat Cailin, the pup will not be able to win back to the north . . . and if he is fool enough to try, his enemies will seal the south end of the causeway behind him, and Robb the boy will find himself caught like a rat in a bottle." Theon could keep silent no longer. "A bold plan, Father, but the lords in their castles—" Lord Balon rode over him. "The lords are gone south with the pup. Those who remained behind are the cravens, old men, and green boys. They will yield or fall, one by one. Winterfell may defy us for a year, but what of it? Again, you seem to misunderstand the complexities of warfare. Moat Cailin,(the front line) and the fever river (supply lines) as well as control of the coast and Deepwood Motte was what was important, the rest could wait. it would be pointless taking anything while leaving moat cailin vulnerable. Quote as Asha point's out in the Kingsmoot. no, she is clear on her father's plan If my father still lived, Moat Cailin would never have fallen. Balon Greyjoy had known that the Moat was the key to holding the north. Euron knew that as well; he simply did not care. No more than he cared what happened to Deepwood Motte or Torrhen's Square. Quote It's not coincidence that the major of the fandom thinks that Balon is a idiot. It says more about the fandom than it does about the books. many treat the series and factions as sports teams, being unable to see anything from any other perspective but the characters they identify with, that is why characters they don't like or understand get labelled dumb or lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shouldve Taken The Black Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 15 hours ago, Arthur Peres said: Even if Walder was a coward he still was expected to look up for himself, the Starks offered him a better deal than the nothing that Tywin ofered them. Tywin expecting them to remain neutral was foolish and wishful thinking. Tywin was expecting him to do what he had always done. Turns out to have been wrong, but hardly foolish or wishful thinking. It was a fair call based on experience. 15 hours ago, Arthur Peres said: We are changing the subject of this discussion. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Peres Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 48 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said: Of course he is unlucky. With Ned he had in possession the ruler of the North, he person who had the authority to tell the Northern army to go home, or even to support the new king. Joffrey acted like an idiot and killed this hostage. It was hugely unlucky for Tywin, I'm perplexed how anyone can not understand this. How is Tywin done? He resides in Casterly Rock, a thousand miles from Kings Landing. And of course there is the fact that Ned didn't really have any actual evidence and every time he had an issue with the Lannisters, such as with the Direwolves, Jaime being Warden, Jaime attacking him and Cat taking Tyrion, Robert came down on the side of his wife. Not even Cersei thinks she can convince Robert after Ned tell him. If Roberts come back Cersei, Jofrey, Myrcella and Tommen are dead with Tyrek and Lancel as hostages. Tywin and Jaime would be summoned to respond for his actions against the riverlands. Robert comes back the Lannisters are done. 58 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said: No, unofficially the war was started by the daughter of Hoster Tully abducting the king's brother-in-law with the help of riverland vassals. Officially it started when Edmure sent 4,000 Riverland soldiers to the Westerlands the first battle, at the Golden Tooth, occurred. Tywin was very careful in his actions, he could clearly argue that he was not the original aggressor. Tywin wasn't careful at all. he send his most distinguished and easier to spot/identify bannermen to do the raids, he atacked and killed Beric and his force(forces of the crow), Tyrion was judge and release so he lost his casus belli but he still went on his war. No amount of talk would save Tywin from Robert. 1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said: None of that alters my argument. With the majority of the riverlands fallen Walder was expected to do nothing, that is entirely in his character. Supporting Robb was not. I'm really not sure what point you are trying to make here. Walder by nature is cautious, him choosing the rebels was out of character, ingenious negotiating from Cat (or simply a plot necessity by the author) does not change the fact that this was a move that is not in line with what he had been told about Walder before the meeting his character after it. Of course he does, he even points it out. Tywin was now the Hand, Riverrun was close to falling and no other kingdom had rebelled. In effect Robb was rebelling against Westeros, it was not in Walder's character to become a rebel against a larger opponent. And Lord Walder was always friendlier with Casterly Rock than my father would have liked. His closeness to the West was a worry for Hoster, the fact that the largest faction in the Twins is the children and grandchildren of Amerie Crakehall, that Walder's heir's second marriage was to a Lydden, his second son to a Lannister, his son Lothar (Walder's steward) to a Lefford and his 3rd daughter to a son of Lord Brax shows the closeness of these ties. Among Walder's brood we have two Tywin Frey's, a Tytos, Tion, Tysane a Cersei and a Jaime. At the start of the war Walder had at least one son, one daughter, seven grandsons an two great grandsons in the Westerlands. The Frey's closeness to the West is noteworthy. You want to force this idea that Walder was close to Tywin when he is not. In fact Tywin even ofended him when oposed the marriage. He had so many children that he marry them of to anyone, again...Darry; Blackwoods Vance; Haigh, Bolton Royce, Wylde and soo on. His heir was married to a stormlander, we don't know who was married to Ryman but then Edwyn is married to a Vale house while black walder still single. You're using names now ? parents can name their children whatever they want. Walder has kids named Rhaegar during Robert's reing... do not see your point. his closeness to the west is not diferent that his closeness with the vale or to the stormlanders, in fact the "faction of the west" is very far in the line of sucession. Even if Tywin thought that Walder wouldn't commend to a lost cause, when Robb arrives with fresh troops is not a lost cause anymore, Tywin ofered him nothing so he shouldn't expect nothing of the Freys, much less take for granted that he would help him against their liege lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Peres Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said: 2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said: eh? Do you expect him to attack before his army has been raised? That makes zero sense, especially when he has, potentially, an entire realm to take. No, he knows he can take it but that it would take time. You are oversimplifying war, Renly was the clear favorite to beat Tywin but war is not a sport, it rarely comes down to two sides meeting at a prearranged venue and sorting it out in one game. It could have taken a year to beat Tywin. no, they are common sense. He has to take as few casualties as possible winning Kings Landing and against the Lannisters to be in a strong enough position to beat Robb and any other potential faction that may take advantage of the chaos of war. He has 80k with him i bitterbridge, is the biggest army assembled in Westeros history, he does not need to wait anything, and KL is poorly defended Stannis with the same men with only 21k would take it even when the city was much better prepared, and Renly outnumbers Tywin 4 to 1 not counting on Mace reserves... Renly wasn't the favorite, he was the clear winner by a large marge until he decided to sit on his hands. This is pure plot armor. Then Renly dies the lords of the reach and stormlander turn to Stannis but they let the bulk of the army behind... this bulk of a army will decide to fight for a House that they never swear alligiance and until this morning were they enemies taking arms against their own lords... and this bulk of army will win the war for Tywin.... If you can't see how lucky this is this conversation is pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bernie Mac Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Not even Cersei thinks she can convince Robert after Ned tell him. No, that is not true. Cersei was not a POV at that point so we have no idea what she was thinking. What we do know is that she was always plotting to kill Robert and that the danger of being exposed (why risk it) made her kill Robert much sooner. But again, this is bad luck for Tywin, had Cersei produced a few legitimate children he would not have to fight for the realm. His children cuckolding the King is not something that the average person plans for so this is decidedly bad luck for Tywin, not good luck. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: If Roberts come back Cersei, Jofrey, Myrcella and Tommen are dead with Tyrek and Lancel as hostages. Not necessarily. Robert would have to be very certain before he admits to the entire realm that he had been cuckolded for 15 years under his own nose and he would have to be very certain to kill what may be his own children. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Tywin and Jaime would be summoned to respond for his actions against the riverlands. No, Robert had already ordered Ned to have Cat release Tyrion, something he ignored. In actual fact Ned's vendetta against the Lannisters may actually help Cersei given Robert did not even want to hear why Cat had taken Tyrion, he just wanted him released. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Robert comes back the Lannisters are done. Cersei and Jaime may be, not sure how Robert being cuckolded under his own roof is Tywin's fault given he resides a thousand miles away. Does Robert go full circle and order the death of Tywin and other Lannisters for crimes he thinks their family members committed? Isn't that why the mad king was toppled? 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Tywin wasn't careful at all. Sure he was. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: he send his most distinguished and easier to spot/identify bannermen to do the raids, Of course, he needed them to know without them being able to prove it, that is the entire point. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: he atacked and killed Beric and his force(forces of the crow), after Robert had died. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Tyrion was judge and release so he lost his casus belli but he still went on his war. war started before that and as neither Cat or Lysa informed anyone that Tyrion was released there was no way Tywin could have known. what you are describing is more bad luck for Tywin. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: No amount of talk would save Tywin from Robert. for what? 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: You want to force this idea that Walder was close to Tywin when he is not. Are you serious? nowhere have I claimed that Tywin and Walder are close, I have quoted Hoster Tully on the subject and given reasons, other than Walder's well established caution, why Walder may not want to fight the Westerland army given the ties he has to multiple of their Houses, including two grandsons serving as pages/squires at Casterly Rock. Cat comments on the closeness of Walder and the West, please explain why she is wrong in her worries? 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: In fact Tywin even ofended him when oposed the marriage. citation? 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: He had so many children that he marry them of to anyone, again... No, not just to anyone. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Darry; Daughters of Lord Darry, those are significant marriages, hardly qualifies as just anyone. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Blackwoods what child of Walder's married a Blackwood? 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Vance; the Vances are one of the most powerful Houses in the Riverands. There are only two Riverland Lords who have their own Lordly vassal, Frey and Vance. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Haigh, his own vassal, that is not just marrying them to anyone 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Bolton one of the most powerful Lords in the North. How does that qualify as just anyone? 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Royce,Wylde sadly we don't know which branch Royce was from or who the Wylde was in relation to her House. Both the Wyldes and Royces are significant Houses. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: soo on. how is that and 'so on' most of the matches you mentioned are significant marriages, they are not marriages for the sake of marriage. And the marriages he arranged in the West were significant, to the child of the Lord Lannister, a child of Lord Brax, a significant Crakehall considering Lord Sumner took on Merrett and Jaime as his two squires. As well as a Lefford and Lydden, two Lordly Houses. Marrying for the sake of it would be allowing the children to marry into knightly and other lesser Houses, the marriages of Frey's brood is to some of the most significant Houses in the realm. He clearly cares about who they marry. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: His heir was married to a stormlander, we don't know who was married to Ryman but then Edwyn is married to a Vale house while black walder still single. eh? What point are you trying to make here? 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: You're using names now ? Yes, you claimed that the relationship between the Freys and West was nothing special, you are wrong, one of the many ways that the book shows you are wrong is the amount of Frey's with notable Westerland names. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: parents can name their children whatever they want. Right, and why do you think many Frey's have named their children after Walder? It is because his approval is sought for, the same goes for the being named after Kings and Princes and the same goes for being named after prominent Westerland nobles. What I am giving you here is multiple examples of the strong influence that the Freys have with the West in the odd case you want to ignore the claim Cat makes about their closeness. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Walder has kids named Rhaegar during Robert's reing... do not see your point. No, Rhaegar was born during Aerys reign, were you under the impression that the vile character we meet at White Harbor was a teenager?. Rhaegar Frey has a 14 year old son, named Robert. Child names are often important, it shows respect to the people you want to please and honour, Ned naming Robb and Jon after his two close friends is an example of this. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: his closeness to the west is not diferent that his closeness with the vale or to the stormlanders, So why does Hoster worry about it? 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: in fact the "faction of the west" is very far in the line of sucession. eh? Why would Walder care about that? An outsider would care about that, but Walder's children are his own he going to value them on other reasons other than their birth order, that is why he arranges Arya to marry his 22nd son rather than a grandson or greatgrandson closer in the succession line. There are more Freys with Crakehall blood at the Twins than any other House in Westeros and looking at the children there are some very important marriages that were arranged for that faction. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Even if Tywin thought that Walder wouldn't commend to a lost cause, What do you mean even if? I provided the quote which states that Tywin was clearly under the impression, as was Tyrion. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: when Robb arrives with fresh troops is not a lost cause anymore, It is a significant risk. Tywin had just become the Hand and there was no reason at that point to think the Reach would rebel. Walder was making a huge gamble, the North and the Freys vs the Crown. It was dumb and not in Walder's character as we see from the meeting between Cat and Walder. 6 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Tywin ofered him nothing so he shouldn't expect nothing of the Freys, much less take for granted that he would help him against their liege lord. He wouldn't be helping, he'd be doing nothing. Which is kind of what he was doing before Tywin became Hand and what he was doing for much of Robert's Rebellion. Him taking a risk is out of character. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Peres Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said: Balon was aware of this, or do you think this is brand new information that Balon was not privy to? Even being aware of this he still thought it was not worth the risk, especially as the North was a much easier target. yup, Balon is aware of that. but like most predators he will pick the more vulnerable target which is less likely to fight back. Under 2k and this took months to raise from the entire North. The vastness of the North makes it weaker as it takes longer to raise hosts to deal with invaders. and here is where quality comes into play, the men with Rodrik were poorly trained, likely poorly equipped and were easily overwhelmed by a smaller force with Ramsay. After winter, before winter they were preoccupied with farming and other important matters. Now that it is winter many are sacrificing themselves. and once again here is where quality comes into play, the fact that the fleeing Ironborn were able to rack up so many casualties against an army that outnumbered them more than 10-1 speaks to the quality and organization of these, mostly, farmers and sheperds. Yeah, I have no idea what point you are trying to make here. No one claimed there was zero men left in the north, or that it was deprived of any soldiers, what was pointed out by Balon was that it was weaker than the West and nothing in the five books has shown him to be wrong in this assessment. that was his plan, he points it out in the books, it is not some secret. Deepwood Motte was the stronghold of the Glovers. With both Robett and Galbart warring in the south, it would be lightly held, and once the castle fell the ironmen would have a secure base in the heart of the north. I should be the one sent to take Deepwood. He knew Deepwood Motte, he had visited the Glovers several times with Eddard Stark. "Victarion," Lord Balon said to his brother, "the main thrust shall fall to you. When my sons have struck their blows, Winterfell must respond. You should meet small opposition as you sail up Saltspear and the Fever River. At the headwaters, you will be less than twenty miles from Moat Cailin. The Neck is the key to the kingdom. Already we command the western seas. Once we hold Moat Cailin, the pup will not be able to win back to the north . . . and if he is fool enough to try, his enemies will seal the south end of the causeway behind him, and Robb the boy will find himself caught like a rat in a bottle." Theon could keep silent no longer. "A bold plan, Father, but the lords in their castles—" Lord Balon rode over him. "The lords are gone south with the pup. Those who remained behind are the cravens, old men, and green boys. They will yield or fall, one by one. Winterfell may defy us for a year, but what of it? Again, you seem to misunderstand the complexities of warfare. Moat Cailin,(the front line) and the fever river (supply lines) as well as control of the coast and Deepwood Motte was what was important, the rest could wait. it would be pointless taking anything while leaving moat cailin vulnerable. no, she is clear on her father's plan If my father still lived, Moat Cailin would never have fallen. Balon Greyjoy had known that the Moat was the key to holding the north. Euron knew that as well; he simply did not care. No more than he cared what happened to Deepwood Motte or Torrhen's Square. It says more about the fandom than it does about the books. many treat the series and factions as sports teams, being unable to see anything from any other perspective but the characters they identify with, that is why characters they don't like or understand get labelled dumb or lucky. 1- Balon is dumb, he is declaring independence against the crow while fighting the enemies of the said crow...this is purely stupidity and makes no sense whatsoever. 2- Balon plan is unreal, he captures moat caillin and blocks Robb's return, fine, but most of his army is trapped there doing nothing. He sends Theon to do nothing significant and expects Asha with only 1k take castle after castle in the north until he controls it... the only problem is that he couldn't even supplie this army after a certain distance... He couldn't occupy the North, how does he expects to conquer it in the middle of winter...Balon himself didn't expect to take winterfell that soon "Lord Balon rode over him. "The lords are gone south with the pup. Those who remained behind are the cravens, old men, and green boys. They will yield or fall, one by one. Winterfell may defy us for a year, but what of it? The rest shall be ours, forest and field and hall, and we shall make the folk our thralls and salt wives." He planned to occupy the North in the middle of winter... that's Balon Greyjoy, that is dumb pure and simple. To worst the situation they couldn't hold it, like Asha tells Theon "Your prize will be the doom of you. Krakens rise from the sea, Theon, or did you forget that during your years among the wolves? Our strength is in our longships. My wooden pisspot sits close enough to the sea for supplies and fresh men to reach me whenever they are needful. But Winterfell is hundreds of leagues inland, ringed by woods, hills, and hostile holdfasts and castles. And every man in a thousand leagues is your enemy now, make no mistake. You made certain of that when you mounted those heads on your gatehouse." Asha shook her head. "How could you be such a bloody fool? Children . . ." 3- after Oxcross is cleary stated that no one has the power to challenge Robb in the field. Robb has only a fraction of his army with him in the westerlands, only 6k, and he made enough damage, He didn't had siege weapons not enough men to take CR or Lannisport by assault, and he didn't had a navy or time to starve them out. Balon with his 20k is completly diferent story. Lannisport already was sacked in the past by the Ironborn and Tywins fleet has no chance against the iron fleet, the westerlands had no men to opose Robb 6k let alon Balon 15k~20k and the iron fleet. 4- Robb took 20k men out of the North. Tywin took 35 men out of the westerlands not couting the ones killed at Oxcross. We see Stannis and Roose gathering armies in the north, but even with the Ironborns,Aegon, Stannis and some of the Riverlords rebeling we do not see any Lannister army being assembled. They are depending much more of Mace's army. 5- Theon taking Winterfell with 30 men is pure plot...Just the Direwolfs of Bran and Rickon would detect and kill the 4 man Theon send ahead ending that invasion before it started. But you refuses to see it and I can't do nothing about it. lets agree on disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bernie Mac Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: He has 80k with him i bitterbridge, is the biggest army assembled in Westeros history, he does not need to wait anything, Yeah, he does. Tywin has potentially 30-40k and the walls of kings landing, which act as a multiplier in war. Why would he strike early and incur more casualties which may inhibit his ability to beat the North/Riverlands and any other faction that may choose to rebel? 47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: and KL is poorly defended not at that point, Tywin was at Harrenhal, a shorter march than Bitterbridge. 47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Stannis with the same men with only 21k would take it How many casualties did Stannis take on his attempt to take the capital (he was not successful even before Tywin arrived). Stannis' victory, if he was able to take the city, would have been pyrrhic as his losses to Tyrion would mean he would not be able to make Robb, Tywin or any other faction obey him. Too many losses in battle can prove victory meaningless. Renly understands this, Robb understands this, Balon understands this and from his actions at the Red Fork Tywin understands this. It is an important part of warfare, especially before the industrial revolution were armies were limited. 47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: even when the city was much better prepared, except it was not, not really. Tywin being at Harrenhal was better for the city. 47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: and Renly outnumbers Tywin 4 to 1 except he does not, it is more like 3:1 and more importantly Renly overestimates the North and Riverlands numbers he may do the same with the Westerland and of course if your argument was for him to attack much earlier that would have been before Jaime was beaten meaning the numbers would have been more like 2:1 plus the walls and area of the capital favoring the Lannisters. Renly waiting to attack has already seen both Tywin and Robb weaken, it has made his job far easier. 47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: not counting on Mace reserves.. why would you count them when you are complaining that he should never have waited for them.. 47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Renly wasn't the favorite, Sure he was. Who do you think the favourite was at the start of the war? 47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: he was the clear winner by a large marge until he decided to sit on his hands. eh? War is not a sprint, rushing head first into battle is idiotic. 47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: This is pure plot armor. how so? 47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Then Renly dies the lords of the reach and stormlander turn to Stannis No, they don't. A small portion does. 47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: but they let the bulk of the army behind.. The bulk of the army had zero intention of following Stannis. All he lost out on was the Crane and Florent infantry. 47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: this bulk of a army will decide to fight for a House that they never swear alligiance and until this morning were they enemies taking arms against their own lords... Stannis? 47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: and this bulk of army will win the war for Tywin.... Yep, due to a combination of luck and negotiation. 47 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: If you can't see how lucky this is this conversation is pointless. eh? I could see how this was lucky, but it is was just luck, it is naive to think that Tywin's appointed Hand and the Small Council did not play a role in the matter. Mace didnt just turn up at Kings Landing asking to help, he was wooed and promised a pretty hefty sum for his help. My point is that all commanders in war will have both good and bad luck, the better commanders are able to take advantage of their good luck and learn to cope when bad luck happens to them. Tywin, Robb and Stannis all had periods of good luck and periods of bad luck. That is simply a fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Peres Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said: Yeah, he does. Tywin has potentially 30-40k and the walls of kings landing, which act as a multiplier in war. Why would he strike early and incur more casualties which may inhibit his ability to beat the North/Riverlands and any other faction that may choose to rebel? not at that point, Tywin was at Harrenhal, a shorter march than Bitterbridge. How many casualties did Stannis take on his attempt to take the capital (he was not successful even before Tywin arrived). Stannis' victory, if he was able to take the city, would have been pyrrhic as his losses to Tyrion would mean he would not be able to make Robb, Tywin or any other faction obey him. Too many losses in battle can prove victory meaningless. Renly understands this, Robb understands this, Balon understands this and from his actions at the Red Fork Tywin understands this. It is an important part of warfare, especially before the industrial revolution were armies were limited. except it was not, not really. Tywin being at Harrenhal was better for the city. except he does not, it is more like 3:1 and more importantly Renly overestimates the North and Riverlands numbers he may do the same with the Westerland Tywin has 20K with him Renly has 80k, do the math... Tywin at harenhall can do nothing, just Renly's cavalry is the size os his whole army and Renly has Tarly, the better general in the field. If Tywin is foolish enough to march against Renly he will have a good song about his last stand...If he goes behind the walls he would starve togheter with the city. And even there Renly could buy the population with food and make them open the gate... or he can wait the army to desert and open the gates surrendering and giving him Tywins head since that Robb is pillaging their lands and they're starving in the capital surrounded by a army 4 times their size. Renly's death and the Tyrell alliance is the biggest luckyest event bar none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Peres Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said: The bulk of the army had zero intention of following Stannis. All he lost out on was the Crane and Florent infantry. Varys describes the fact that many lords now with Stannis still have their foot levies with Mace as a 'ticklish situation, and by name Houses Florent; Crane; Fossoway, Varne and Mullendore joined Stannis, then we also have the stormlands contingent that were with Renly like Buckler,Caron, Errol, Fell, Grandiso, Wylde, Horpe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bernie Mac Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: 1- Balon is dumb, No, you not being able to understand a character's motives does not make that character dumb. 20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: he is declaring independence against the crow while fighting the enemies of the said crow as he makes clear, he wants new lands and the North, after its army has traveled a thousand miles South offers Balon the chance to get that, the West offers nothing but plunder, casualties and an irate Tywin and Joffrey, the current sitting King and Hand of the realm. 20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: ...this is purely stupidity and makes no sense whatsoever. Of course it does. Robb is an unknown quantity Tywin is a known quantity. He chooses to pick on the side that is easier to attack and against the ruler who a few weeks experience. This is pretty common in terms of history, known threats garner more respect than unknown threats. And while I don't think Balon is a genius, he's not, he is also clearly not dumb. I mean to carve out a kingdom with fire and sword . . . but not from the west, and not at the bidding of King Robb the Boy. Casterly Rock is too strong, and Lord Tywin too cunning by half. Aye, we might take Lannisport, but we should never keep it. No. I hunger for a different plum . . . not so juicy sweet, to be sure, yet it hangs there ripe and undefended." He was correct about the West and the North and he was correct about Tywin, he was too cunning. 20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: 2- Balon plan is unreal, No, it is not unreal as the plan we see him make, to take the coast, Deepwood Motte, the Fever River and Moat Cailin goes perfectly to plan, they even take Winterfell a year ahead of schedule. The plan was real, we saw it succeed. 20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: he captures moat caillin and blocks Robb's return, fine, but most of his army is trapped there doing nothing. Of course, Moat Cailin is the key to the North, no army from the South has ever taken it, history is on whoever has possession of Moat Cailin's side therefore it is idiotic to leave it undefended while Robb was still alive. They are there for a purpose, it is not for nothing. Eventually Robb is either going to have to attack or get beat by his enemies in the South Once we hold Moat Cailin, the pup will not be able to win back to the north . . . and if he is fool enough to try, his enemies will seal the south end of the causeway behind him, and Robb the boy will find himself caught like a rat in a bottle." And again, you'll notice this character who you claimed was dumb was able to predict what would happen to Robb. 20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: He sends Theon to do nothing significant Taking the coast was significant. It is less than Victarion and Asha but that is too be expected, they are more experienced and trusted than he is. It would be idiotic to give Theon a larger role having only just arrived and him plotting to remove his father. 20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: and expects Asha with only 1k take castle after castle in the north until he controls it... no, where is that said. One castle, not castle after caste. 20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: the only problem is that he couldn't even supplie this army after a certain distance... This is a problem you have invented, Asha was not expected to go castle to castle, she was expected to take Deepwood Mottte, that is it. The rest is stuff you have made up. 20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: He couldn't occupy the North, how does he expects to conquer it in the middle of winter...Balon himself didn't expect to take winterfell that soon Once Robb had been defeated there would, pretty much, only be the Ironborn army in the North, enough to increase their holdings. 20 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: He planned to occupy the North in the middle of winter... that's Balon Greyjoy, that is dumb pure and simple. I'm sorry, was Balon supposed to ask Robb to delay taking his entire army South until Spring came around? You play the cards you are dealt, right now you are quibbling over circumstances Balon could not possibly control. 42 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: 3- after Oxcross is cleary stated that no one has the power to challenge Robb in the field. no, it is never said that . By all means prove me wrong. https://asearchoficeandfire.com/?q=in+the+field&scope[]=acok&scope[]=asos You may be thinking of the Cleos quote "The boy sits idle at Riverrun," Ser Cleos said. "I think he fears to face your father in the field. His strength grows less each day. The river lords have departed, each to defend his own lands." But I doubt it. 42 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Robb has only a fraction of his army with him in the westerlands, only 6k, but not enough to threaten either Casterly Rock or Lannisport, and Robb does not have to deal with the Westerland navy as well. Balon is clear, the North has no navy nor the defenses that the major settlements of the West has on the coast. The North is the easier target. 42 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: and he made enough damage, Did he? Tywin and the Westerland lords don't seem to be that bothered about it after the Blackwater. 42 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: He didn't had siege weapons not enough men to take CR or Lannisport by assault, and he didn't had a navy or time to starve them out. Exactly, The West was better defended, Robb did nor want to risk casualties in attempting to do something that would get Tywin's attention, why should Balon when there are easier targets for him to aim for? 42 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Balon with his 20k is completly diferent story. Not that different. 42 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Lannisport already was sacked in the past by the Ironborn Yes and were hugely punished for it, so ignoring the fact that Balon wants land and not plunder, ignore the fact that he wants to limit casualties which attacking the well defended capital of the West is not going to do then focus on the fact that Balon had became aware that historiacly the West strikes back. In 134 AC, Lady Johanna Lannister took her revenge for all that the Red Kraken had inflicted on her and hers. The Westerlands has a history of getting revenge on the Ironborn 42 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: and Tywins fleet has no chance against the iron fleet, Of victory in open waters, certainly not, in defending the coast against the Ironborn, sure they do. Of course they have a chance of doing the role it was assembled for. And once again you are ignoring one of Balon's key reasons for picking the North, attacking the Westerland navy during wartime would mean Ironborn casualties. He does not see the point in risking it, rather than dumb this is pure common sense, if you lose too many men you can not defend what you have gained. How is it dumb Balon understands some of the simplest necessitates of war which have clearly gone over your head? In my opinion it is not because you are dumb, but that you are incapable of seeing things from Balon's position. Him attacking the west is great for Robb Stark, it is less great for Balon. 42 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: the westerlands had no men to opose Robb 6k Of course they did, Robb points out that he did not have the strength to attack it. Tywin Lannister's infantry was notoriously well disciplined, and the City Watch of Lannisport is well trained as well... much better than their counterparts in Oldtown and King's Landing. There would be, conservatively speaking, thousands at Lannisport and Casterly Rock. 42 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: let alon Balon 15k~20k and the iron fleet. Not according to either Balon or Robb who refused to risk it. 42 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: 4- Robb took 20k men out of the North. Tywin took 35 men out of the westerlands not couting the ones killed at Oxcross. We see Stannis and Roose gathering armies in the north, but even with the Ironborns,Aegon, Stannis and some of the Riverlords rebeling we do not see any Lannister army being assembled. They are depending much more of Mace's army. Of course, they have sent the majority of their army home as the war was over come ASOS. As for the Lannister host, two thousand seasoned veterans remained encamped outside the city walls, awaiting the arrival of Paxter Redwyne's fleet to carry them across Blackwater Bay to Dragonstone. Lord Stannis appeared to have left only a small garrison behind him when he sailed north, so two thousand men would be more than sufficient, Cersei had judged. The rest of the westermen had gone back to their wives and children, to rebuild their homes, plant their fields, and bring in one last harvest. Cersei had taken Tommen round their camps before they marched, to let them cheer their little king. They've had little cause to recall them, the Boltons and Freys are dealing with Stannis, the Brackens have dealt with the Blackwoods, no other Riverlords had rebelled, Mace is dealing with Aegon and the Ironborn attack towards the very end of the the series. 42 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: 5- Theon taking Winterfell with 30 men is pure plot... No, not pure plot. Look at the Westerlands capital, Robb won't dare strike it with 6,000 men, look at the realms capital, a 5k guard. Robb left his capital exposed, it was a rookie mistake.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bernie Mac Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: Varys describes the fact that many lords now with Stannis still have their foot levies with Mace as a 'ticklish situation, and by name Houses Florent; Crane; Fossoway,Verne Fossoway is in both camps, as they are a knighlly House I did not really include them as I prresumed they must serve either the Florent's or Crane's. But yeah, I did overlook House Varner. 3 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: and Mullendore joined Stannis, Stannis has a single Mullendore knight, Lord Mullendore is still listed as a vassal of Hightower rather than Stannis. 10 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said: then we also have the stormlands contingent that were with Renly like Buckler,Caron, Errol, Fell, Grandiso, Wylde, Horpe... The knights were there, there is no mention of the Stormland infantry being there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Peres Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 35 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said: 1 No, you not being able to understand a character's motives does not make that character dumb. as he makes clear, he wants new lands and the North, after its army has traveled a thousand miles South offers Balon the chance to get that, the West offers nothing but plunder, casualties and an irate Tywin and Joffrey, the current sitting King and Hand of the realm. 2 Of course it does. Robb is an unknown quantity Tywin is a known quantity. He chooses to pick on the side that is easier to attack and against the ruler who a few weeks experience. This is pretty common in terms of history, known threats garner more respect than unknown threats. And while I don't think Balon is a genius, he's not, he is also clearly not dumb. I mean to carve out a kingdom with fire and sword . . . but not from the west, and not at the bidding of King Robb the Boy. Casterly Rock is too strong, and Lord Tywin too cunning by half. Aye, we might take Lannisport, but we should never keep it. No. I hunger for a different plum . . . not so juicy sweet, to be sure, yet it hangs there ripe and undefended." He was correct about the West and the North and he was correct about Tywin, he was too cunning. 3 No, it is not unreal as the plan we see him make, to take the coast, Deepwood Motte, the Fever River and Moat Cailin goes perfectly to plan, they even take Winterfell a year ahead of schedule. The plan was real, we saw it succeed. Of course, Moat Cailin is the key to the North, no army from the South has ever taken it, history is on whoever has possession of Moat Cailin's side therefore it is idiotic to leave it undefended while Robb was still alive. They are there for a purpose, it is not for nothing. Eventually Robb is either going to have to attack or get beat by his enemies in the South Once we hold Moat Cailin, the pup will not be able to win back to the north . . . and if he is fool enough to try, his enemies will seal the south end of the causeway behind him, and Robb the boy will find himself caught like a rat in a bottle." And again, you'll notice this character who you claimed was dumb was able to predict what would happen to Robb. Taking the coast was significant. It is less than Victarion and Asha but that is too be expected, they are more experienced and trusted than he is. It would be idiotic to give Theon a larger role having only just arrived and him plotting to remove his father. I will edit number in your points to make it easier ok? 1- Balon objectives He wants lands? he can take it from the westerlands too, they are fertile unlike the freezy north that as Mace points out snow and rocks...Asha in her kingsmoot show us what Balon gain from that "cobblestones, pinecones and turnips" Balon wants too much when he does not have the means to achieve. He does not have the man power to hold the north, let alone in the middle of winter. He let his entire army trapped in Moat Caillin doing nothing. The moment the garrison of moat caillin goes away Robb tries to take it back. His army is trapped there being poisoned by Holowand Reed milita warfare getting weak everyday while he gains nothing. He wants indepence? he is fighting the wrong enemy. He wants wealth? The lannister had more to take. 2- the strenght of each target The north is not out of men power, Robb couldn't gather his whole army cause he was in a hurry, also houses like Ryswell, Dustin and the Mountain clans didn't send their men, Stannis and Roose are still gathering armies there and this is after a northem civil war between boltons and manderlys, Rodrik host being slaughter and the ironborn invasion. Tywin took his strenght away, the fact that they can't opose a 6k army is proof enough. Robb not taking thinks by assault does not mean the westerlands are strong, much otherwise, they have to let him take they gold and livestock when they're close to the winter, and yes, Robb did enough damage, Tywin tryed to go back to defend his lands, didn't he? He just was defeated... again... by Edmure. With what strenght would Tywin fight back against Balon and Robb after the war? His is losing badly the war. 3- Yeah the plan was unreal and gave it no fruits. Balon invaded a land he can't occupy, the northem know the land much better than him, most of his army is traped in one place and if they ever left they allow Robb to come back, what made that hard for the north was the Bolton/Manderly/Hornwood mess, Theon doing the unthinkable (taking winterfell with 30 men) against the orders of Balon, "killing Bran and Rickon" in the process and Ramsey betraying Rodrik latter on. Nothing of this was planned by Balon. The moment the north was stable again, under Roose that can't even count on North whole strenght they expelled the IB. conclusion Balon could gain a ally, atack the westerlands and take it's wealth and with lucky occupy part of it...at the very minimal he would have anexed Fair island...at best he could anexed part of the coast of the westerlands using the montains as borders. He choose to atack the north for "cobblestones, pinecones and turnips" as his own daughter points out.... hell Asha propose the exact same deal that Robb offered, only now the 2 regions are much weaker and they don't have the riverlands anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpg2016 Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 1:13 PM, Bernie Mac said: Except he didnt. Robb is in the West for months after the Battle of Blackwater and we hear not a peep from the Westerland lords with Tywin. He had also been there for months before the Blackwater and the only reason Tywin moved is due to Stannis' movements, not Robb's. Robb was not in a serious position to hurt Tywin, they were acceptable losses to Tywin and through a combination of his long standing rule and command over his vassals meant that they too were accepting of these losses. Not sure where you get this. It is factually incorrect. After Robb smashes Stafford Lannister at Oxcross, Tywin heads west. Why the hell do you think that is? The man has one major war aim; to confirm his grandson on the Iron Throne. So why they hell is he walking away from the biggest, nearest threat to that (Stannis)? Because he has to. The only possible explanation of this is that Tywin is forced by his vassals to protect their lands and incomes. And the only reason he doesn't actually go west is because he's defeated at the Battle of the Fords. Get your facts straight, man. On 4/6/2018 at 1:13 PM, Bernie Mac said: Except he does not. Not all threats are equal, not all losses are equal, some are acceptable during war. Battle of the Fords. Please go read about it. Tywin does go west, he is just prevented from it by Edmure's strategic incompetence and glory-hounding. You display a considerable lack of knowledge of how feudal politics work, not to mention the basic timeline of the story. Go reread ACOK and ASOS. Then we can chat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpg2016 Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 On 4/7/2018 at 10:01 PM, BRANDON GREYSTARK said: Robb would not have lost . The plan was to draw Tywin back to the Westderlands , while Stannis attacks King's Landing , Balon's attacking the Westerlands would have achieved that . It is true that the Freys may have had an army of about 5000 , the Iron Born can field about 35000 and also ships . This is extremely debatable. First off, I want to know where that number of men comes from. Second, the ironborn are severely limited in their ability to raid inland. Which means Stafford can probably raise his new and let them garrison the various castles; the ironborn are raiders and not conquerors. Robb poses a much more massive strategic threat, because he can take castles where Balon really cannot. As we see in the North, even a token force of men is capable of ejecting the ironborn from most of their conquests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpg2016 Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 On 4/10/2018 at 11:44 AM, Arthur Peres said: You're changing my words, I never said that Balon needed Robb's permission. I said that Robb offers the better oportunit for doing so. I wouldn't bother. He's a 12 year old troll. Not sure what you're going to accomplish from chastising him for making shit up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bernie Mac Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, cpg2016 said: Not sure where you get this. It is factually incorrect. Both Tyrion and the author make it clear that Tywin heading to deal with Robb has more to do with Stannis' movements than it is with Robb being in the West. Storm's End is a hugely formidable castle, and should have been able to hold out much longer, as it did during Robert's Rebellion when Stannis was inside rather than outside. And both Tyrion and Tywin knew that Stannis was a methodical commander rather than a daring one, and therefore would be unlikely to leave an enemy stronghold untaken in his rear. There was also the psychological aspect, as Stannis himself explains to Davos; he could not risk being seen as having suffered a "defeat," however minor. Was Lord Tywin marching west a huge risk? Of course it was. That was why he sat at Harrenhal for so long, hoping to lure Robb into attacking him... or Stannis into committing against King's Landing. Neither of his foes would play into his hands, however. At which point he made a calculated gamble. -GRRM "Both of them." Storm's End was strong, it should have been able to hold out for half a year or more . . . time enough for his father to finish with Robb Stark. "How did this happen?" -Tyrion Robb had gone West months before Tywin left Harrnehal and after the Blackwater, with Robb still West, Tywin does nothing and we hear nothing of the lords of the Westerlands pressuring Tywin to act ergo Robb attacking the West was not as influential as he had hoped it would be. 37 minutes ago, cpg2016 said: Then we can chat. We are already chatting. When you reply to someone you engage them in a conversation. 8 hours ago, Arthur Peres said: 1- Balon objectives He wants lands? he can take it from the westerlands too, Except he does not think that is possible. Casterly Rock is too strong, and Lord Tywin too cunning by half. Aye, we might take Lannisport, but we should never keep it. The North is weaker, parts of it have been ruled by the Ironborn before and has a natural choke point (Moat Cailin) that has successfully stopped all armies from the South while there are multiple entrance into the West. As I said, Balon may not be a genius but his decision to take the North was not on a whim but on pragmatic decision making. The North not only offered less casualties to the Ironborn but offered a greater chance of success as well as the fact that with no Navy the North could not offer any retribution while, historically, the West has frequently got their revenge on the Iron Islands. 8 hours ago, Arthur Peres said: they are fertile unlike the freezy north that as Mace points out snow and rocks...Asha in her kingsmoot show us what Balon gain from that "cobblestones, pinecones and turnips" What you are looking at is buzzwords and ignoring the fact that Asha was in complete agreement with her father in taking the North, she saw its value, she is arguing against Euron's plan to take the Reach as it is short term thinking. She wanted to remain in the North and is adamant that had her father lived they would still hold Moat Cailin. 10 hours ago, Arthur Peres said: Balon wants too much when he does not have the means to achieve. He does not have the man power to hold the north, let alone in the middle of winter. You are taking his words too literal. Holding the North does not necessarily mean ironborn soldiers in every town, William the Conqueror was crowned and accepted as the King of England long before he had control of the much of the country. "No," said Catelyn. "Leave them to guard their own, and win back the north with northmen." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- She saw how he studied his maps whenever they made camp, searching for some plan that might win back the north. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "He has lost the north," insisted Hosteen Frey. "He has lost Winterfell! His brothers are dead . . ." ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- He smiled a wet red smile. "Or should I call you the King Who Lost the North, Your Grace?" ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mace Tyrell spoke up. "Is there anything as pointless as a king without a kingdom? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ "He ought to be offering fealty," snapped Cersei. "By what right does he call himself king?" "By right of conquest," Lord Tywin said. "King Balon has strangler's fingers round the Neck. Robb Stark's heirs are dead, Winterfell is fallen, and the ironmen hold Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte, and most of the Stony Shore. King Balon's longships command the sunset sea It is accepted that Robb had lost the North, the characters in the novel are not quibbling over semantics. 11 hours ago, Arthur Peres said: He let his entire army trapped in Moat Caillin doing nothing. They are not trapped, they are there for a specific reason, no one has trapped them there, Balon's orders were to stay there and once he was dead the vast majority were free to leave. Quote The moment the garrison of moat caillin goes away Robb tries to take it back. You do understand that is precisely why they are there? Robb was either going to have to attack or would be ddefeate in the South, that is why the majority of the ironborn soldiers were stationed there. Quote His army is trapped there being poisoned by Holowand Reed milita warfare getting weak everyday while he gains nothing. Again not trapped, they are there for a clear purpose. The gain is clear, just because it is not instant gratification does not mean there are no long term gains to holding Moat Cailin till Robb came undone. Quote He wants indepence? he is fighting the wrong enemy. He wanted more land. How does attacking Lannisssport gain him independence? All it does is leave him weaker through the casualties that would occur from such an attack. Attacking the North means fewer casualties than attacking the West Quote He wants wealth? The lannister had more to take. I feel we are going around in circles. Why do muggers more commonly pick on old people than banks? Why are shops targeted by thieve more than banks? It is all about risk vs reward. Balon did not think the risk was worth the reward when it came to the West. Quote 2- the strenght of each target The north is not out of men power, No one has claimed it was, what has been claimed by Balon is that it poorly defended in comparison to the West. The West has a Navy, the North does not The Western capital is strongly defended, the Northern capital is not Robb and his army are more than a thousand miles away from home, Tywin only a few hundred These are just facts, just look at the Crag, despite the Westerlings lowly status they were left with more competent guards than Robb left his capital. Quote Robb couldn't gather his whole army cause he was in a hurry Where is that claimed? "Is that wise? You are strongly placed here. It's said that the old Kings in the North could stand at Moat Cailin and throw back hosts ten times the size of their own." "Yes, but our food and supplies are running low, and this is not land we can live off easily. We've been waiting for Lord Manderly, but now that his sons have joined us, we need to march." No evidence from here that Robb was in a hurry. And if he was in a hurry why did he not summon a second army why did he feel the need to take the entire Northern army, and the Freys, in a bid to retake the North The simple truth is that the North was stretched thin, Robb could not have brought many more men North without impacting the safety of the North even further. Quote , also houses like Ryswell, Dustin and the Mountain clans didn't send their men, Yes they did. "… rode south with Robb Stark, fought beside him at the Whispering Wood and Riverrun, returned to the Iron Islands as his envoy to treat with your own father. Barrowton sent men with the Young Wolf as well. I gave him as few men as I dared, but I knew that I must needs give him some or risk the wroth of Winterfell. So I had my own eyes and ears in that host. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Flints, Cerwyns, Tallharts, Slates … they all had men with the Young Wolf." "House Ryswell too," said Roger Ryswell. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Two-thirds of my strength was on the north side when the Lannisters attacked those still waiting to cross. Norrey, Locke, and Burley men chiefly, with Ser Wylis Manderly and his White Harbor knights as rear guard. Quote Tywin took his strenght away, eh? If there was no strength in the West then why did Robb have to sneak past the Golden Tooth, why did he not try to take Lannisport Quote the fact that they can't opose a 6k army is proof enough. Hardly, Robb has 6,000 cavalry and was constantly on the move, not informing the West of where he would be staying. What the Westerland nobles are doing is common sense, as is made clear to Dany by Jorah Your khal would tell you that only a coward hides behind stone walls instead of facing his enemy with a blade in hand. The Usurper would agree. He is a strong man, brave … and rash enough to meet a Dothraki horde in the open field. But the men around him, well, their pipers play a different tune. His brother Stannis, Lord Tywin Lannister, Eddard Stark …” He spat. Robb's has more cavalry than the forces left in the West, greater maneuverability means sending infantry after him, especially when not knowing his position, is idiotic. They are better off remaining at their settlements and keeping them well defended. Quote Robb not taking thinks by assault does not mean the westerlands are strong, much otherwise, they have to let him take they gold and livestock What gold? We hear of no gold coming back to the Rivelands. Gold is kept in castles. Robb, briefly, took some mines and put a halt on production, but he would not be taking anything significant. Quote Robb did enough damage, not really. Tywin and the Westerland lords did not deem it as that bad Quote Tywin tryed to go back to defend his lands, didn't he? Of course, when he was under the impression that Stannis was occupied at Storm's End. It was Stannis' movements that made Tywin head West, not Robb's. Quote 3- Yeah the plan was unreal and gave it no fruits. Balon invaded a land he can't occupy, Not only could he, he was. You are now arguing against events that actually happened in the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon_Stargaryen Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 On 3/27/2018 at 3:55 PM, Dorian Martell's son said: No, George needed to have theon betray Robb, hook up with Ramsay, fake kill the Stark kids and then lose winterfell to Bolton troops To be honest, the question was Would Balon attacking the Westerlands really change anything? The simple answer is yes. He's not asking if GRRM would've written it that way; we can all agree on that. What he's asking is, in a Westeros with self-determination, how would this change affect things. Ramsay would still be a prisoner, Theon wouldn't get the chance to betray Robb (in that way), the North would be safe and Catelyn's non-existent grief wouldn't have led her to free Jaime. This puts Tywin in a compromising situation, as his bannermen are now in fear of losing their homes and will be losing morale over what the ironborne(who seem to see rape, murder and plunder as a birthright) are doing to their wives and children. It changes the flow of the war, seeing as Robb was winning before, and would have the overwhelming advantage over the Lannisters with their men so skittish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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