Its not gonna be a rescue mission prologue

[lAPPYc]

I have no idea of how I didn't think of this before.

Kevan doesn't know about any rescue mission, failed or otherwise.

Pycelle and Swyft called Kevan down from Casterley Rock on the day that Cersei was imprisoned (Probably). Cersei sent the letter to Jaime a few days later. Let's say that the letters reach their destinations at the same time (Raven to Casterley Rock was sent earlier but had to traverse more distance). Jaime got his letter many days after Edmure departed Riverrun, so that party is already at least a couple days away from Riverrun. Jaime had a host of less than 1000 men upon leaving from KL, he sent Red Ronnet back with a twenty, but I doubt he left any people at Riverrun. Maybe he sent them with Forley Praster, but I don't see him traveling through the Riverlands without a strong escort after the lessons he learned at Whispering Woods. So, it is safe to say that Jaime's party is bigger than that of Ser Forley's 400 (Maybe even double). Ser Forley also wants to make haste, however, to escape potential outlaw attempts for Edmure. Taking Ser Forley's speed to be twice to that of Jaime's, he would certainly have crossed Golden Tooth before Ser Kevan exited the Westerlands, and I don't think the Outlaws can get to Edmure past Golden Tooth.

Now even if the pass at Golden Tooth is closed off by the snows and Ser Forley has to take a longer route (Deep Den? Go to the Ocean Road?), there is too much time for KL to not learn about the massacre that is so popular in the fandom by the time Ser Kevan reaches there. Kevan knows that Jaime is missing. That means that Jaime's party waited at least two days for him to return: One day for him to go, and another for him to return. Then they will send out search parties. And only when the search parties have covered a few day's distance will ravens will fly. And even that is assuming that Jaime's party sends out ravens from Pennytree, and not after returning to Riverrun. All this takes too much time, and Kevan not only knows that Jaime is missing, he sits on this information until his epilogue, never hearing about a massacre. And yes, there will be ravens. Forley Praster is no man's fool, he probably has ravens. And even if he doesn't, his has 400 men, at least some of them will escape to the nearest holdfast, and alert authorities about a large outlaw band being loose in the region. The outlaw band has to be big, to take on 400 men so fatally. Given that Kevan and Jaime left their respective places of Casterley Rock and Riverrun at nearly the same time, and given the entire continent that Kevan has to pass, no matter what the haste, Kevan should have had a letter waiting for him when he reaches KL, if not a messenger catching up to him from the Westerlands.

Now, how do I know that Kevan doesn't know about any massacre?

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Her uncle frowned. “You should sit. There are things that I must needs tell you—”

some of which are:

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“We have had reports of sellswords landing all over the south,” Ser Kevan was saying. “Tarth, the Stepstones, Cape Wrath … where Stannis found the coin to hire a free company I would dearly love to know. I do not have the strength to deal with them, not here. Mace Tyrell does, but he refuses to bestir himself until this matter with his daughter has been settled.”

So he tells her of sellswords landing in the south, but not of a massacre near the center of power of Lannisters (Riverrun-Casterley Rock)? There can only be one reason. It never happened.

Heck, we even have a POV chapter of him, which happened days after his visit to Cersei, wherein he counts his woes: Aegon, JonCon, the Tyrells, Ser Robert Strong, even Daenerys, but nowhere is Edmure and/or the Outlaws.

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whilst the best part of the strength of House Lannister remained in the riverlands, fast melting away.

Melting away, not dying away.

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"We have foes on every hand, Lord Tarly,” Ser Kevan reminded him. “Stannis in the north, ironmen in the west, sellswords in the south. Defy the High Septon, and we will have blood running in the gutters of King’s Landing as well. If we are seen to be going against the gods, it will only drive the pious into the arms of one or the other of these would-be usurpers.”

There's no mention of a massacre, and certainly not of the escape of the Lord of Riverrun and/or of the Young Wolf's wife who could brew up a lot of trouble by procuring a child and naming him heir to the North. And it's not like they have forgotten:

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“Soon, I hope,” he said instead, before turning to Grand Maester Pycelle. “Is there aught else?”

And the issue is brought of Rosby inheritance and of Myrcella's homecoming party. There is no mention of a massacre, whose time window has closed weeks ago.

So no, Jeyne Westerling may appear in the prologue of TWoW, but it won't be to witness a rescue attempt for Edmure by Stoneheart and her men. The logistics don't support it. By the time of Kevan's epilogue, Jeyne is probably back home at the Crag busy sunbathing. Maybe a kraken surfaces at the ocean and she is pulled in. Maybe someone is using glass candles and they see her. Maybe she reveals to her mother that she is Maggy the Frog and makes a prophecy about Sybil's death that comes true instantly.

Edit: Jaime doesn't leave one day after Ser Forley, but one day passes, then two, and then more days pass. The chapter takes place over a period of many days, and Ser Forley leaves on the second of those days.

[Adam Yozza]

Or, maybe, Kevan simply hasn't heard about the rescue attempt. I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen, but Kevan not hearing about it doesn't really mean anything. For example; Tywin didn't know Robb had crossed at the Twins until after the battle at the Green Fork. Stannis didn't know about Tywin and the Tyrell's heading for King's Landing until it happened. No one at King's Landing knew about Stannis abandoning Dragonstone until he turned up at the Wall IIRC. There are plenty of instances in which information fails to reach it's intending target and that's assuming anyone in Forley's party survives to tell the tale. 

Besides, even if Forley's party didn't make it to the Rock, why would Kevan be the one that gets informed of this? Jaime was the commander that gave them their orders and Kevan is neither the Warden of the West nor the Castellan of Casterly Rock. Damion or Daven or whoever Jaime left in command of his escort at Pennytree are more likely to hear about an ambush (or just simply that Forley never arrived at his destination) but given everything that's going on they may have other, more pressing concerns.

[lAPPYc]

Sorry it took me a month to reply. I just forgot.

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Tywin didn't know Robb had crossed at the Twins until after the battle at the Green Fork

The march was screened by scouts, unlike will be in this case. And Tywin was in the field, so couldn't receive ravens, unlike the Red Keep. Nor was there anyone to send him ravens, unlike all the Lannister loyalists in the Westerlands or near Riverrun.

On 3/28/2018 at 8:52 PM, Adam Yozza said:

Stannis didn't know about Tywin and the Tyrell's heading for King's Landing until it happened.

Again, Stannis didn't have anyone to tell him about the movements of Tywin's forces. And he was also in field. You are talking about armies receiving news, I am talking about the capital receiving news. Very different mechanisms.

On 3/28/2018 at 8:52 PM, Adam Yozza said:

No one at King's Landing knew about Stannis abandoning Dragonstone until he turned up at the Wall IIRC.

Actually they did. Tywin knew that Stannis had left Dragonstone, and when Pycelle (I think) says that they were well rid of that man and his ambitions, Tywin reprimands him by asking him whether he has taken leave of his wits. Stannis Baratheon will fight to the bitter end and beyond. They didn't yet know that Stannis was on the Wall. In AFFC, Jaime thinks of how Cersei had celebrated to hear that Stannis had abandoned Dragonstone, and then had raged later upon hearing that he was on the Wall.

On 3/28/2018 at 8:52 PM, Adam Yozza said:

There are plenty of instances in which information fails to reach it's intending target and that's assuming anyone in Forley's party survives to tell the tale.

True, there are such instances (I can't think of any right now, but I am sure they are here in this series of misinformation). But all it takes are a few survivors from Forley's party to reach the nearest castle. And Forley has four hundred men with him. I can't envision the BwB being able to vanquish all of them. There are always leaks.

On 3/28/2018 at 8:52 PM, Adam Yozza said:

Besides, even if Forley's party didn't make it to the Rock, why would Kevan be the one that gets informed of this?

Why did Margaery learn about the Shields? Why did Cersei learn about Saltpans. Saltpans was news, I guess. But Willas was at Highgarden, and Garlan at Brightwater Keep, and the actual lord was at Storm's End. Why send a raven to the Red Keep? I'm sure news is sent to all relevant parties. Not telling the capital of a major event is the easiest way to get questioned on whether you think that the capital's input is useless or something.

[Nevets]

I too don't think the prologue is a rescue mission either.  I doubt it because I don't think the BwB has the manpower or weaponry to take on 400 men successfully.  If they are going to do a rescue, it is going to be of the Frey prisoners that are being sent to KL, possibly involving Jaime.

I think the prologue will be at Castlery Rock, and will include Edmure and Jeyne's arrival.  It may be easier to keep everybody together until CR, and then send Jeyne home from there.  This would give GRRM a chance to get us caught up on events in the West and KL.

[Kandrax]

8 hours ago, Nevets said:

think the prologue will be at Castlery Rock,

I have noticed something about even numbered books.

In Clash's first chapter a maester dies, same thing happens in last chapter.

Feast begins and ends in Oldtown.

If prologue is going to be set in CR and if Red Walder would be Pov, could that means that Late Walder's death would be in epilogue?

[The South Forgets]

2 is a rather small dataset for any inferences.

 

Now if only we had 50 ASOIAF books....

[Slowpoke Martin]

9 hours ago, Nevets said:

I think the prologue will be at Castlery Rock, and will include Edmure and Jeyne's arrival.  It may be easier to keep everybody together until CR, and then send Jeyne home from there.  This would give GRRM a chance to get us caught up on events in the West and KL.

But if the prologue is at Casterly Rock, who will be the PoV and how will they die since the PoV of every prologue & epilogue dies.

I think it will be a rescue due to who the prisoners are and there is a good chance it already happened before ADWD's epilogue because of how inconsistent the chronology is in the books. There may even be a chance that the prisoners are with LSH when Jaime is brought in.

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, Slowpoke Martin said:

But if the prologue is at Casterly Rock, who will be the PoV and how will they die since the PoV of every prologue & epilogue dies.

 

Chett is the prologue of ASOS and does not die for another 18 chapters

Pate is the prologue character of AFFC and survives the entire book. 

Varamyr's body dies but his mind lives on. 

I don't think the prologue character necessarily has to die, but if the character does die it does not mean it is there and then.  

[Nowy Tends]

10 hours ago, Nevets said:

I too don't think the prologue is a rescue mission either.  I doubt it because I don't think the BwB has the manpower or weaponry to take on 400 men successfully.  If they are going to do a rescue, it is going to be of the Frey prisoners that are being sent to KL, possibly involving Jaime.

And the BwB doesn't even know that Jaime has doubled Prester's escort. To defeat two hundreds soldiers was already a challenge, but 400!

Add to this Jaime's order to kill the prisoners if they try to escape…

[Adam Yozza]

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Chett is the prologue of ASOS and does not die for another 18 chapters

Pate is the prologue character of AFFC and survives the entire book. 

Varamyr's body dies but his mind lives on. 

I don't think the prologue character necessarily has to die, but if the character does die it does not mean it is there and then.  

Chett doesn't die in the chapter itself but he does die at the time its set.

The Pate we see in the prologue does die doesn't he? The one we meet later is someone else, or am I mistaken about that?

I'm fairly certain Varamyr is considered dead for all intents and purposes.

The trend disagrees with you. We haven't had a single prologue (or epilogue) chapter in which the POV character has survived the day their chapter takes place on.

[Megorova]

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Pate is the prologue character of AFFC and survives the entire book. 

Pate died in the end of Prologue. The alchemist was a Faceless Man, the one that previously was Jaqen H'ghar. When Arya saw him last time, he removed Jaqen's mask and took new identity. Then he went in Oldtown, killed Pate with poison on golden dragon coin, and then took his face and identity, and infiltrated Citadel. The Pate in the last of Sam's chapter is ex-Jaqen.

AFFC, Prologue:

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Pate grabbed it from his hand. The gold felt warm against his palm. He brought it to his mouth and bit down on it the way he’d seen men do. If truth be told, he wasn’t sure what gold should taste like, but he did not want to look a fool.

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He was halfway down the alley when the cobblestones began to move beneath his feet. The stones are slick and wet, he thought, but that was not it. He could feel his heart hammering in his chest. “What’s happening?” he said. His legs had turned to water. “I don’t understand.”

“And never will,” a voice said sadly.

The cobblestones rushed up to kiss him. Pate tried to cry for help, but his voice was failing too.

His last thought was of Rosey.

There was poison on that coin. Same method of killing was used by Arya in Braavos.

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The alchemist pulled his hood down.

He was just a man, and his face was just a face. A young man’s face, ordinary, with full cheeks and the shadow of a beard. A scar showed faintly on his right cheek. He had a hooked nose, and a mat of dense black hair that curled tightly around his ears. It was not a face Pate recognized. “I do not know you.”

“Nor I you.”

“Who are you?”

“A stranger. No one. Truly.”

ACOK, Arya IX:

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Jaqen passed a hand down his face from forehead to chin, and where it went he changed. His cheeks grew fuller, his eyes closer; his nose hooked, a scar appeared on his right cheek where no scar had been before. And when he shook his head, his long straight hair, half red and half white, dissolved away to reveal a cap of tight black curls.

ADWD, The Ugly Little Girl:

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“I know this man,” she did hear a priest with the face of a plague victim say. “I know this man,” the fat fellow echoed, as she was pouring for him. But the handsome man said, “I will give this man the gift, I know him not.” Later the squinter said the same thing, of someone else.

It's a rule for Faceless Men, they can kill only people that they don't know personally from before.

[Guest]

Anything could happen. The prologues and epilogues are among my favorite parts of the series. I could see a prologue from the perspective of the Ghost of High Heart. Some outlaws might visit her, maybe even with Brienne, and she could learn of everything that has happened with Jamie and anything else, and foreshadow what's to come. Instead of dying in some tragic way, it could just be death from old age. If she didn't like Arya, she probably won't be okay with Lady Stoneheart at all. 

[lAPPYc]

2 hours ago, Mooncalf said:

Anything could happen. The prologues and epilogues are among my favorite parts of the series. I could see a prologue from the perspective of the Ghost of High Heart. Some outlaws might visit her, maybe even with Brienne, and she could learn of everything that has happened with Jamie and anything else, and foreshadow what's to come. Instead of dying in some tragic way, it could just be death from old age. If she didn't like Arya, she probably won't be okay with Lady Stoneheart at all. 

Things is that George has said that Jeyne will be in three prologue. That, along with his admitting that he did in fact made a mistake with Jeyne's description in AFFC which was making fans think that the real Jeyne had run off with the Blackfish, narrows the prologue scenarios considerably down. One popular theory was that Stoneheart will try and rescue Edmure and will end up causing Jeyne's or someone else's death.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, lAPPYc said:

Things is that George has said that Jeyne will be in three prologue. That, along with his admitting that he did in fact made a mistake with Jeyne's description in AFFC which was making fans think that the real Jeyne had run off with the Blackfish, narrows the prologue scenarios considerably down. One popular theory was that Stoneheart will try and rescue Edmure and will end up causing Jeyne's or someone else's death.

I'm a little new here and have never really looked into what Martin says. That sounds interesting. My thing with Jeyne is that I think Lady Stoneheart will hate her and want her dead, so it could involve that.

[Nevets]

14 hours ago, Slowpoke Martin said:

But if the prologue is at Casterly Rock, who will be the PoV and how will they die since the PoV of every prologue & epilogue dies.

I think it will be a rescue due to who the prisoners are and there is a good chance it already happened before ADWD's epilogue because of how inconsistent the chronology is in the books. There may even be a chance that the prisoners are with LSH when Jaime is brought in.

Just because the POV has died in each prologue and epilogue so far is not a requirement that he (or she) will die in the next book.  It just means that it has suited Martin to kill him so far.   So I stand by my suggestion of Casterly Rock.

[Angel Eyes]

3 hours ago, Mooncalf said:

I'm a little new here and have never really looked into what Martin says. That sounds interesting. My thing with Jeyne is that I think Lady Stoneheart will hate her and want her dead, so it could involve that.

Is Lady Stoneheart a telepath? How would she know that Jeyne was screwing them over?

[aryagonnakill#2]

Perhaps if you could present a plausible alternative I could get on board, but I just don't see how else Jeyne is in the prologue, and someone has a meaningful death.  It isn't just going to be some master dies of old age, it has to be meaningful.

[Nevets]

4 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Is Lady Stoneheart a telepath? How would she know that Jeyne was screwing them over?

Who says Jeyne was screwing them over?  Her mother certainly was, but I think Jeyne's love for Robb was the real thing.