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War of five kings riverlands


Matter-of-fact

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Tywin is experienced, prepared, and knows his enemy. He smashes several armies, and it's hard to rally your forces with enemies in your lands, eating your crops and raping and pillaging everything in sight.

 

That 45000 is counting on time and circumstance, neither of which is on the Riverlords side.

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1 hour ago, Leonardo said:

Tywin is experienced, prepared, and knows his enemy. He smashes several armies, and it's hard to rally your forces with enemies in your lands, eating your crops and raping and pillaging everything in sight.

 

That 45000 is counting on time and circumstance, neither of which is on the Riverlords side.

I would also add that not every Riverlord fought against Westernlands army, before Robb came.

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4 hours ago, Matter-of-fact said:

Why we're the riverlands unable to defend from lannisters without reinforcements from north and where was the supposed strength of  450000?

There is nothing from the books to suggest that the Riverlands has a strength of 45k. 

"I'm told your son crossed the Neck with twenty thousand swords at his back," Renly went on. "Now that the lords of the Trident are with him, perhaps he commands forty thousand."
No, she thought, not near so many, we have lost men in battle, and others to the harvest.
 
i'm guessing it is at least 10k less than 45k. 
 
Now the Riverlands was unable to defend itself because this was an unusual situation, Edmure could not have expected a full on invasion from, technically, fellow countrymen nor could he have predicted the King doing nothing or that the aggressor would soon become Hand legitimising his attack. 
 
Another factor is that Tywin may not be the norm when it comes to rulers of the Westerlands so this kind of threat has not been something the Riverlands has had to face from the West even before the Targ era. Tywin is notably excellent at logistics which means his forces move very quickly while the author mentions that Tywin's pikemen are better trained than the norm in Westeros. And it stands to reason that Tywin's 40 years as ruler of the West would mean his control of it would mean that he could optimize their forces in ways that a less experienced Tywin could (or his father Tytos could at the same age). 
 
 

 

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There have been one or two recent threads on this very subject. The consensus appears to be (others can correct me if I'm wrong):

1) Geography. The riverlands is vulnerable at a number of points, and doesn't appear to have control of its natural borders.

2) Edmure. There is a debate about just how weak a leader he was, but there is a strong argument to suggest he doesn't have all the qualities that make a great commander. He's certainly no match for Tywin, and apparently not a match for Jaime either, in this regard.

3) Tywin. This man is one of the most talented commanders in 7k. I think only Randall Tarly and possibly Stannis can in any way measure up to him. (I'm sure plenty of people think there may be other candidates, but irrespective, Tywin's good). 

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35 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

There have been one or two recent threads on this very subject. The consensus appears to be (others can correct me if I'm wrong):

1) Geography. The riverlands is vulnerable at a number of points, and doesn't appear to have control of its natural borders.

2) Edmure. There is a debate about just how weak a leader he was, but there is a strong argument to suggest he doesn't have all the qualities that make a great commander. He's certainly no match for Tywin, and apparently not a match for Jaime either, in this regard.

3) Tywin. This man is one of the most talented commanders in 7k. I think only Randall Tarly and possibly Stannis can in any way measure up to him. (I'm sure plenty of people think there may be other candidates, but irrespective, Tywin's good). 

And yet, the only man in the series who directly fought Tywin army against army and won was Edmure Tully.

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1 minute ago, Canon Claude said:

And yet, the only man in the series who directly fought Tywin army against army and won was Edmure Tully.

Very true! And of course, a win is a win. But he was in a strong defensive position and all he had to do was stand firm and hold it. Absolutely fine, and I won't detract from his victory, but I think we can all probably agree that overall Tywin has displayed more talent. 

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It's also worth noting that the Riverland forces where divided when Tywin invaded. The Frey's and their 4k men; possibly with another 1 or 2 thousand unraised; sat at the Twins doing nothing, the Vances and Piper's where sitting at the Golden Tooth and when Tywin sent Lorch, Clegane and Hoat to attack border villages, Edmure fell right into it and split the army at Riverrun into smaller forces to try and defend every square inch of land. Tywin took them apart piecemeal. While Jaime smashed the Golden Tooth force and then what remained at Riverrun (which I assume to be pretty much just the Tully and Blackwood forces, plus whatever survived from the Vance-Piper force).

That aside, the other reasons have pretty much already been stated. Tywin was amazing at logistics and was able to raise a much larger host than anyone could have predicted in far less time, and then marched them really quickly too. Taking into account that the troops of the Westerlands were better trained and armoured than their Riverlands counterparts, it's not really a surprise that a famously divided region being led by their sickly liege's untested and not particularly brilliant son gets taken apart by a seasoned and ruthless and brilliant commander by Tywin with his 100% unified kingdom.

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The biggest factor im surprised noone mentioned yet is lord Hoster Tully still being alive and demanding Edmure send men to KL to demand the kings peace, Robert was an ally to the Riverlands and Hoster hoped Robert would do his duty and deal with the Westerlands BUT of course both Robert and Hoster die leaving Edmure with an invading army already in his lands which makes it extremly difficult to raise men to fight. 

Also the Riverlords were cut to thin and Tywin and Jamie took advantage of this fact.  

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6 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

There is nothing from the books to suggest that the Riverlands has a strength of 45k. 

"I'm told your son crossed the Neck with twenty thousand swords at his back," Renly went on. "Now that the lords of the Trident are with him, perhaps he commands forty thousand."
No, she thought, not near so many, we have lost men in battle, and others to the harvest.
 
i'm guessing it is at least 10k less than 45k. 
 
Now the Riverlands was unable to defend itself because this was an unusual situation, Edmure could not have expected a full on invasion from, technically, fellow countrymen nor could he have predicted the King doing nothing or that the aggressor would soon become Hand legitimising his attack. 
 
Another factor is that Tywin may not be the norm when it comes to rulers of the Westerlands so this kind of threat has not been something the Riverlands has had to face from the West even before the Targ era. Tywin is notably excellent at logistics which means his forces move very quickly while the author mentions that Tywin's pikemen are better trained than the norm in Westeros. And it stands to reason that Tywin's 40 years as ruler of the West would mean his control of it would mean that he could optimize their forces in ways that a less experienced Tywin could (or his father Tytos could at the same age). 
 
 

 

Considering that means Frey would control a seventh of the Riverlands forces, no, that places them too low given what we know about his numbers. An important vassal, but there are many others as well;Maidenpool, Harrenhal, Blackwoods and Brackens, Seagard...

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32 minutes ago, Leonardo said:

Considering that means Frey would control a seventh of the Riverlands forces, no,

What do you mean 'no'? The Frey's are the most powerful bannerman of the Tullys. 

House Frey might have abandoned the King in the North, but the Lord of the Crossing remained the most powerful of Riverrun's bannermen

 

Quote

 

that places them too low given what we know about his numbers.

What does the books tell us about the numbers? 

Quote

An important vassal, but there are many others as well;Maidenpool, Harrenhal, Blackwoods and Brackens, Seagard...

None of which are as powerful as the Freys, certainly more prestigious, but not as powerful. 

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17 minutes ago, Leonardo said:

Considering that means Frey would control a seventh of the Riverlands forces, no, that places them too low given what we know about his numbers. An important vassal, but there are many others as well;Maidenpool, Harrenhal, Blackwoods and Brackens, Seagard...

That doesn't sound too far off to me. The Frey army is huge. By AFFC/ADOD it's besieging Seaguard, marching with the Boltons to the North, and makes up about a third of the Lannister forces besieging Riverrun.

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4 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Very true! And of course, a win is a win. But he was in a strong defensive position and all he had to do was stand firm and hold it. Absolutely fine, and I won't detract from his victory, but I think we can all probably agree that overall Tywin has displayed more talent. 

Isn't this the kind of thing that should be avoided though?

Tywin performed, let's say, a blitzkrieg he pushed deep into the enemy territory and at first he was successful due to the ineptness of his enemy's leadership. But once his enemy has started to recover his initial advantage was gone and he was deep in enemy lands fighting against now organized defenders in their own turf. There's also Piper and Vance who raid Tywin's lands so the west was exposed Even before Robb lifted Riverrun's siege.

Tywin is a great politician but not such a good commander. All his victories depend on shock and Greenfork was pure luck(Gregor who was supposed to feign a retreat luckily breaking the line)

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5 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

There's also Piper and Vance who raid Tywin's lands so the west was exposed Even before Robb lifted Riverrun's siege.

Did they? I thought they harried his rear.

5 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Tywin performed, let's say, a blitzkrieg he pushed deep into the enemy territory and at first he was successful due to the ineptness of his enemy's leadership. But once his enemy has started to recover his initial advantage was gone and he was deep in enemy lands fighting against now organized defenders in their own turf.

One major weakness of Tywin (not uncommon in clever people) is hubris. He severely underestimated Robb and paid for it. He also took Frey's staying out of the fight for granted, also a major assumption. He planned on a short fast war against the Riverlands and the North, cutting a deal with Ned as a hostage, and being able to turn on the Baratheon brothers (that may have happened irrespective of Jaime's defeat, if Joffery hadn't got all sword happy with Ned).

Robb simply bested him strategically. Tywin acknowledges that I think. 

8 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Greenfork was pure luck(Gregor who was supposed to feign a retreat luckily breaking the line)

Small point, but Gregor wasn't meant to feign defeat, Tywin assumed it would happen because he put the least disciplined troops on the left. He thought he was facing Robb, who being a headstrong young man would chuck everything at the weakest point, and then his heavy cavalry on the right could swing in and break him. The plan went awry because a) Tyrion's wildlings and Gregor's goons were much more effective than he expected, and b ) he was facing Roose, who was much too  careful for that.

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8 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Isn't this the kind of thing that should be avoided though?

Harrenhal was perfectly placed to defend Kings Landing and to take on Robb. 

8 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Tywin performed, let's say, a blitzkrieg he pushed deep into the enemy territory and at first he was successful due to the ineptness of his enemy's leadership.

It was more down to the lack of natural defences, the speed of the attack and the bizarre political situation that it was. 

8 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

But once his enemy has started to recover his initial advantage was gone and he was deep in enemy lands fighting against now organized defenders in their own turf.

Yup, he was now outnumbered. But he was not in a position were he could make peace. 

8 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

There's also Piper and Vance who raid Tywin's lands so the west was exposed Even before Robb lifted Riverrun's siege.

Well not quite. Vance and Piper did not get passed the Golden Tooth, it took Robb's magical direwolf to do that, but were raiding the Westerland lands east to the Tooth. 

8 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Tywin is a great politician but not such a good commander. All his victories depend on shock and

Much like most of the commanders in the series. Robert seems to the only exception, Tywin, Robb and Stannis all rely on numbers and/or surprise to win. Which makes perfect sense for the setting, close victories in war with high casualties for the victor does not help in the long run. 

8 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

Greenfork was pure luck(Gregor who was supposed to feign a retreat luckily breaking the line)

How exactly was the Battle of Green Fork luck?

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11 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

And yet, the only man in the series who directly fought Tywin army against army and won was Edmure Tully.

There is a difference between a tactical victory and a strategic victory. Edmure tended to focus on the former and Tywin on the latter.

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Edmure gathered a large host at Riverrun in the leadup to the War. How large, we don't know. Let's say it was 25,000. That excluded the Freys, who kept back their 5,000. He sent Houses Vance and Piper to hold the Golden Tooth. Let's call that 5,000 men.

So it is quite conceivable that the Rivelrands raised around 30k men or more at the start of the War, without necessarily tapping into their full strength. After all, it was harvest time and 30k men is a massive host by any standards. No need to delve into your reserves and dregs unless the situation really warrants it.

Not to mention that the Tully's struggle to rally the full power of the divided Riverlands at the best of times. In any case, at that point Edmure made the fatal mistake of dispersing a large part of his host to go and defend every village and holdfast close to the border individually, instead of keeping his strength united. So of his initial host a much smaller portion remained at Riverrun when Jaime arrived and smashed it.

By then, Tywin was burning and laying waste to the Riverlands at will, wiping out the dispersed Riverland forces piecemeal. So by the time Robb arrived, the Riverlands were on their knees. Note that even after this, Edmure was able to regather 11k men at Riverrun fairly quickly, and this without the Freys 5k.

So overall, that best explains the plight of the Riverlands in the War of the Five Kings, their large population notwithstanding.

 

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13 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Yup, he was now outnumbered. But he was not in a position were he could make peace. 

No, not against Stark-Tully alliance. Kevan says they may get outnumbered after Riverrun but only after Edmure raises more men they are outnumbered and that happens much later.

 

13 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Well not quite. Vance and Piper did not get passed the Golden Tooth, it took Robb's magical direwolf to do that, but were raiding the Westerland lands east to the Tooth. 

Yes? They aren't raiding at the heart of the Westerlands but it's still Tywin territory.

 

13 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Much like most of the commanders in the series. Robert seems to the only exception, Tywin, Robb and Stannis all rely on numbers and/or surprise to win. Which makes perfect sense for the setting, close victories in war with high casualties for the victor does not help in the long run. 

I Should've been clearer; Tywin relied on surprise wars during peace time, like in Reyne-Tarbeck "Rebellion" where as the other characters rely on surprise battles, during times of war when enemy already expects you but just not in that location or time.

 

13 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

How exactly was the Battle of Green Fork luck?

Gregors flank was expected to break / feign retreat. Gregor and his giant horse falling on spearmen and breaking that line was luck. If things went as Tywin planned, Roose may not have fallen for the trap.

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