Is Varys a Blackfyre?

[Der Karrenkönig]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

So what? When Dany is dead, they win. It is only going to backfire if Belwas fails. And it might certainly be that he plans to kill not only her but Tyrion, the dragons, and other people who might try to avenge her, too. But Dany is clearly the heart of her own movement. Without her, everything would collapse.

I technically agree that a Second Dance should have a dragon on the other side, but if it is just going to be called 'the Second Dance of the Dragons' because another Aegon fights another presumptuous female pretender trying to steal his throne, then it will already fit the bill. Just like with King Aegon II, King Aegon VI will sit on the Iron Throne when the female Targaryen pretender pushes her own claim. And people will recognize those similarities.

Aside from that the wars shouldn't have that much in common. Aegon and Dany don't personally loathe each other, their families do not hate each other, there aren't twenty dragons around to kill each other, etc. In fact, Drogon fighting Viserion or Rhaegal isn't even remotely in the same league as most of the dragon battles during the Dance. The First Dance clearly is the giant in that category, and the Second Dance just a dwarf.

That could change if old dragons like the Cannibal showed up - but if that doesn't happen all we could hope for are additional hatchlings for other dragon eggs - either more old ones, or some Dany's dragons will produce in the future. 

Yes, if he kills Dany (and her possible future heir Tyrion) everything would collapse. But clever guys like Varys and Illyrio should take into account that he fails or that he even ignores, what they want him to do and tells Dany; in both cases they would have started the war, they wanted to prevent in the first place. And how do you imagine Belwas going around and killing lots of important people in Dany's camp and her dragons could work? He is not a schemer, he couldn't even scheme his way to breakfast, like Dany said. And then again, why should he even do that? Chances should be pretty bad, that he values his former slave master that much more, than Dany and his position in her camp. Gold shouldn't be able to turn him against Dany either, he is a eunuch and it doesn't fit his character. So what motive should he have? 

If Aegon doesn't get a dragon or only some hatchling, the whole war would be pretty unbalanced from the beginning and Aegon has no chance  from the start on. That would be pretty boring to read. I'm quite sure that Aegon will get either an reappearing Cannibal or one of Dany's dragons

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Der Karrenkönig said:

Yes, if he kills Dany (and her possible future heir Tyrion) everything would collapse. But clever guys like Varys and Illyrio should take into account that he fails or that he even ignores, what they want him to do and tells Dany; in both cases they would have started the war, they wanted to prevent in the first place. And how do you imagine Belwas going around and killing lots of important people in Dany's camp and her dragons could work? He is not a schemer, he couldn't even scheme his way to breakfast, like Dany said. And then again, why should he even do that? Chances should be pretty bad, that he values his former slave master that much more, than Dany and his position in her camp. Gold shouldn't be able to turn him against Dany either, he is a eunuch and it doesn't fit his character. So what motive should he have? 

That is the impression we have on him. But we don't really know that man, nor why the hell this guy was sent along with Barristan Selmy. Illyrio/Varys have Blackfyre ties, then Selmy shouldn't be their greatest friend due to the whole Maelys business. Such a man should be kept under close watch.

I don't think Belwas suddenly decides on a whim to kill Dany, it should be around the point Dany has made her decision that she no longer trusts Illyrio and that she doesn't think Prince Aegon is her nephew. That would be the moment. We don't know when that will be but it might be (long) before she sets foot on Westerosi soil.

But it could also only be rather late, perhaps during/after some negotiation when King Aegon's envoys meet her in Volantis, Lys, Tyrosh, or Myr.

4 minutes ago, Der Karrenkönig said:

If Aegon doesn't get a dragon or only some hatchling, the whole war would be pretty unbalanced from the beginning and Aegon has no chance  from the start on. That would be pretty boring to read. I'm quite sure that Aegon will get either an reappearing Cannibal or one of Dany's dragons

Aegon might have no chance, anyway. The real wildcard there is Euron, not Aegon. Aegon is a boy with no battle experience. He looks good, and he might turn out to be competent and capable, but if he clashes with Euron we all know who is going to win. And they might clash long before Dany shows up (although not necessarily directly/personally - which is why/how Aegon might survive).

Dany's dragons should long have riders by the time they come to Westeros - which means Aegon would have to kill one of those riders (or they would have to die) and then get close to the dragon. And then there is the limited worth of those little dragons in actual battle in winter. Sure, they look good and all, and they would make great scouts when snowstorms do not effectively neutralize them, but they are still small enough to be killed rather easily. And if Aegon is king and has won the love and loyalty of his people then it might not be that hard to find himself some dragonslayers. If he wins the love and devotion of the sparrows the Faith Militant will gladly resurrect the old crusade against the abominations and their dragons.

However, I think I could see Aegon's bribing one of Dany's dragonriders - Brown Ben the Moron, say - only to put him down as soon as he joins them so that Aegon can mount his dragon. That wouldn't be overly complicated, I guess.

Dragon or no, Dany is not going to trust that creep ever again, and he might develop an enormous appetite - pretty much the same way Hugh and Ulf did - if he ends up with either Viserion or Rhaegal. Especially if he does some really remarkable things to secure an easy victory for Dany's people in the coming battles in Slaver's Bay (and elsewhere).

If Dany and Tyrion antagonize him, Varys/Illyrio certainly could draw him to their side.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

So what? When Dany is dead, they win. It is only going to backfire if Belwas fails. And it might certainly be that he plans to kill not only her but Tyrion, the dragons, and other people who might try to avenge her, too. But Dany is clearly the heart of her own movement. Without her, everything would collapse.

I technically agree that a Second Dance should have a dragon on the other side, but if it is just going to be called 'the Second Dance of the Dragons' because another Aegon fights another presumptuous female pretender trying to steal his throne, then it will already fit the bill. Just like with King Aegon II, King Aegon VI will sit on the Iron Throne when the female Targaryen pretender pushes her own claim. And people will recognize those similarities.

Aside from that the wars shouldn't have that much in common. Aegon and Dany don't personally loathe each other, their families do not hate each other, there aren't twenty dragons around to kill each other, etc. In fact, Drogon fighting Viserion or Rhaegal isn't even remotely in the same league as most of the dragon battles during the Dance. The First Dance clearly is the giant in that category, and the Second Dance just a dwarf.

That could change if old dragons like the Cannibal showed up - but if that doesn't happen all we could hope for are additional hatchlings for other dragon eggs - either more old ones, or some Dany's dragons will produce in the future. 

There is plenty of time for Daenerys to come to loathe each other, or love each other and then fall out, for that matter. How many chapters did it take for Drogo to become Daenerys's sun-and-stars? Three? Four? And how quickly did Jon fall for Ygritte? Even Brienne and Jaime, a much more complicated relationship was pretty well established in one book. And that relationship was worked into the plot of Feast and Dance. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That is the impression we have on him. But we don't really know that man, nor why the hell this guy was sent along with Barristan Selmy. Illyrio/Varys have Blackfyre ties, then Selmy shouldn't be their greatest friend due to the whole Maelys business. Such a man should be kept under close watch.

I don't think Belwas suddenly decides on a whim to kill Dany, it should be around the point Dany has made her decision that she no longer trusts Illyrio and that she doesn't think Prince Aegon is her nephew. That would be the moment. We don't know when that will be but it might be (long) before she sets foot on Westerosi soil.

But it could also only be rather late, perhaps during/after some negotiation when King Aegon's envoys meet her in Volantis, Lys, Tyrosh, or Myr.

Aegon might have no chance, anyway. The real wildcard there is Euron, not Aegon. Aegon is a boy with no battle experience. He looks good, and he might turn out to be competent and capable, but if he clashes with Euron we all know who is going to win. And they might clash long before Dany shows up (although not necessarily directly/personally - which is why/how Aegon might survive).

Dany's dragons should long have riders by the time they come to Westeros - which means Aegon would have to kill one of those riders (or they would have to die) and then get close to the dragon. And then there is the limited worth of those little dragons in actual battle in winter. Sure, they look good and all, and they would make great scouts when snowstorms do not effectively neutralize them, but they are still small enough to be killed rather easily. And if Aegon is king and has won the love and loyalty of his people then it might not be that hard to find himself some dragonslayers. If he wins the love and devotion of the sparrows the Faith Militant will gladly resurrect the old crusade against the abominations and their dragons.

However, I think I could see Aegon's bribing one of Dany's dragonriders - Brown Ben the Moron, say - only to put him down as soon as he joins them so that Aegon can mount his dragon. That wouldn't be overly complicated, I guess.

Dragon or no, Dany is not going to trust that creep ever again, and he might develop an enormous appetite - pretty much the same way Hugh and Ulf did - if he ends up with either Viserion or Rhaegal. Especially if he does some really remarkable things to secure an easy victory for Dany's people in the coming battles in Slaver's Bay (and elsewhere).

If Dany and Tyrion antagonize him, Varys/Illyrio certainly could draw him to their side.

If The George wants Aegon on a dragon, Aegon will ride a dragon. As you suggest, any prior riders need only die, and The George can kill his characters whenever he wants--several times in some cases! Unless the dragons are chained up we have seen them fly and do as they will. 

[Lord Varys]

12 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

There is plenty of time for Daenerys to come to loathe each other, or love each other and then fall out, for that matter. How many chapters did it take for Drogo to become Daenerys's sun-and-stars? Three? Four? And how quickly did Jon fall for Ygritte? Even Brienne and Jaime, a much more complicated relationship was pretty well established in one book. And that relationship was worked into the plot of Feast and Dance. 

The comparison is rather off here. Dany and Aegon have never met each other. People who don't know each usually neither love or hate each other on a personal level - especially not in a world where there is no television, cinema, radio, or internet.

You can be of the opinion that Aegon and Dany will spend time together or interact on a meaningful personal level. But I'd not assume or be certain about that at this point. We don't really know how the story will go, and there are too many unknowns in all that.

The First Dance starts because a family really grew to hate and loathe each other. Dany and Aegon simply don't have that back story. They might still fight each other, but not on the same personal level unless some very ugly things happen - which would then be motivated by cold calculations rather than personal resentment.

12 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If The George wants Aegon on a dragon, Aegon will ride a dragon. As you suggest, any prior riders need only die, and The George can kill his characters whenever he wants--several times in some cases! Unless the dragons are chained up we have seen them fly and do as they will. 

Sure, but perhaps The George has other, better plans than to give Aegon a dragon. After all, he could have done that by having Aegon go west instead of east. As you well know, Dany isn't in Meereen right now, and there are two riderless dragons there.

One should consider the possibility that the people claiming Viserion and Rhaegal will keep them for a rather long time. If Tyrion and Victarion/Euron claim them, then I'd not be surprised if they kept them until a time long after the lad bit the dust. If Brown Ben claims a dragon I'm open to the idea that he might not keep it all that long, but even then such a dragon should pass from him to Jon Snow rather than Aegon.

[Der Karrenkönig]

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is the impression we have on him. But we don't really know that man, nor why the hell this guy was sent along with Barristan Selmy. Illyrio/Varys have Blackfyre ties, then Selmy shouldn't be their greatest friend due to the whole Maelys business. Such a man should be kept under close watch.

I don't think Belwas suddenly decides on a whim to kill Dany, it should be around the point Dany has made her decision that she no longer trusts Illyrio and that she doesn't think Prince Aegon is her nephew. That would be the moment. We don't know when that will be but it might be (long) before she sets foot on Westerosi soil.

But it could also only be rather late, perhaps during/after some negotiation when King Aegon's envoys meet her in Volantis, Lys, Tyrosh, or Myr.

Aegon might have no chance, anyway. The real wildcard there is Euron, not Aegon. Aegon is a boy with no battle experience. He looks good, and he might turn out to be competent and capable, but if he clashes with Euron we all know who is going to win. And they might clash long before Dany shows up (although not necessarily directly/personally - which is why/how Aegon might survive).

Dany's dragons should long have riders by the time they come to Westeros - which means Aegon would have to kill one of those riders (or they would have to die) and then get close to the dragon. And then there is the limited worth of those little dragons in actual battle in winter. Sure, they look good and all, and they would make great scouts when snowstorms do not effectively neutralize them, but they are still small enough to be killed rather easily. And if Aegon is king and has won the love and loyalty of his people then it might not be that hard to find himself some dragonslayers. If he wins the love and devotion of the sparrows the Faith Militant will gladly resurrect the old crusade against the abominations and their dragons.

However, I think I could see Aegon's bribing one of Dany's dragonriders - Brown Ben the Moron, say - only to put him down as soon as he joins them so that Aegon can mount his dragon. That wouldn't be overly complicated, I guess.

Dragon or no, Dany is not going to trust that creep ever again, and he might develop an enormous appetite - pretty much the same way Hugh and Ulf did - if he ends up with either Viserion or Rhaegal. Especially if he does some really remarkable things to secure an easy victory for Dany's people in the coming battles in Slaver's Bay (and elsewhere).

If Dany and Tyrion antagonize him, Varys/Illyrio certainly could draw him to their side.

He was sent along with Barristan, so that he can pose as his squire and that there is an additional good fighter with Barristan, everything else makes not really sense. It wasn't that important for the plot, to make him a Meereenese slave and pit fighter, but George did it nonetheless, so now not even his possible heritage could be used as a reason why this guy should be still that loyal to Illyrio anymore, so Belwas has no motive and it is too risky anyway. If they do this in this moment you described and he fails or betrays them, they would still bury any hopes of peace and an compromise between Aegon and Dany. I just think this Belwas Scenario is not very believable. More believable in my opinion is that they hire an faceless man in this moment you described, if they have the money to pay for it, they are seen as secure, and that could be way how Arya get's something important to do.

And if Aegon and Euron clash, which is very likely, Euron will surely not win, Aegon has to be still around and i think  also very powerful, when Dany arrives in Westeros and your argument that Euron wins, because Aegon has no battle experience yet is also not that good. First, Aegon has at least won that battle against the Tyrell forces by that point, so he will at least have some battle experience by then and second, there were other boys wih no battle experience, who won their battles, like Robb and Daeron I - one of the Targaryen kings Aegon was already paralleled with. Aegon could defeat Euron fully, if he plays his cards right or he could only deal him some major blows and Euron is still around when Dany arrives. Either way, Aegon needs success, not only against Tommen, but also at binding up the wounds of bleeding westeros, of which Euron will be one of the biggest, otherwise he will be long dead or not very mighty, when Dany arrives and it wouldn't be a proper Dance.

 

[Lord Varys]

6 minutes ago, Der Karrenkönig said:

He was sent along with Barristan, so that he can pose as his squire and that there is an additional good fighter with Barristan, everything else makes not really sense. It wasn't that important for the plot, to make him a Meereenese slave and pit fighter, but George did it nonetheless, so now not even his possible heritage could be used as a reason why this guy should be still that loyal to Illyrio anymore, so Belwas has no motive and it is too risky anyway. If they do this in this moment you described and he fails or betrays them, they would still bury any hopes of peace and an compromise between Aegon and Dany. I just think this Belwas Scenario is not very believable. More believable in my opinion is that they hire an faceless man in this moment you described, if they have the money to pay for it, they are seen as secure, and that could be way how Arya get's something important to do.

Oh, a Faceless Man might go after Daenerys as well, but I think the House of Black and White themselves will decide to send such an assassin - on behalf of the Iron Bank (which they might actually be a large shareholder in) and due to her having dragons. In fact, they might send Arya and Jaqen to take out not only Daenerys Targaryen but especially her dragons.

There is a reason why Tycho Nestoris didn't laugh about Jon's little joke about dragons.

As to Belwas: There might be no motivation in camp Aegon to compromise with Daenerys by the time they take her out. It would be rather difficult to connect a Faceless Man to Illyrio - or Aegon. Dany has more than enough enemies who might dispatch such an assassin.

6 minutes ago, Der Karrenkönig said:

And if Aegon and Euron clash, which is very likely, Euron will surely not win, Aegon has to be still around and i think  also very powerful, when Dany arrives in Westeros and your argument that Euron wins, because Aegon has no battle experience yet is also not that good. First, Aegon has at least won that battle against the Tyrell forces by that point, so he will at least some battle experience by then and second, there were other boys wih no battle experience, who won their battles, like Robb and Daeron I - one of the Targaryen kings Aegon was already paralleled with. Aegon could defeat Euron fully, if he plays his cards right or he could only deal him some major blows and Euron is still around when Dany arrives. Either way, Aegon needs success, not only against Tommen, but also at binding up the wounds of bleeding westeros, of which Euron will be one of the biggest, otherwise he will be long dead or not very mighty, when Dany arrives and it wouldn't be a proper Dance.

I honestly don't think Aegon is going to bind up any wounds. He'll try, and he'll look as if he could do it, and then he'll fail. And he won't defeat Euron, that's for sure. He has no navy. I'm reasonably confident that Aegon and Euron won't clash personally - there are thousands of leagues between them right now, and Aegon is after the big price - the Iron Throne - not about protecting the Reach from some pirate king.

But if they clashed for some reason I'd not wager any money on Aegon. The man is a sorcerer. And if Euron crushes the Redwyne fleet and takes the Arbor he'll become a very serious contender for the Iron Throne. And his smiling eye might actually win him enough followers to remain more than a thorn in Aegon's side, especially if he ended up teaming up with Cersei.

Aegon might certainly be still in control of a huge chunk of the Seven Kingdoms when Dany arrives, but he won't be the only player, nor is he necessarily still going to be 'the loved savior' by then. 

Aegon isn't a main character in this story. He is an important side character, but if I had to guess Euron is going to be much more important than Aegon. He is the great (mortal) antagonist for the second half of the series.

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The comparison is rather off here. Dany and Aegon have never met each other. People who don't know each usually neither love or hate each other on a personal level - especially not in a world where there is no television, cinema, radio, or internet.

You can be of the opinion that Aegon and Dany will spend time together or interact on a meaningful personal level. But I'd not assume or be certain about that at this point. We don't really know how the story will go, and there are too many unknowns in all that.

The First Dance starts because a family really grew to hate and loathe each other. Dany and Aegon simply don't have that back story. They might still fight each other, but not on the same personal level unless some very ugly things happen - which would then be motivated by cold calculations rather than personal resentment.

Sure, but perhaps The George has other, better plans than to give Aegon a dragon. After all, he could have done that by having Aegon go west instead of east. As you well know, Dany isn't in Meereen right now, and there are two riderless dragons there.

One should consider the possibility that the people claiming Viserion and Rhaegal will keep them for a rather long time. If Tyrion and Victarion/Euron claim them, then I'd not be surprised if they kept them until a time long after the lad bit the dust. If Brown Ben claims a dragon I'm open to the idea that he might not keep it all that long, but even then such a dragon should pass from him to Jon Snow rather than Aegon.

Yet we all do anyway.

Dany had never met Drogo until the end of Danerys I. She was in Pentos with her brother under the protection of Magister Illyrio. Two chapters later, she was wed to Drogo and they had fallen in love with each other. Within two more chapters, she was in Vaes Dothrak and her brother was dead. Within three more chapters her sun-and-stars was dying on the edge of the Red Waste somewhere north of the Skahazadhan, and her world fell apart. Two chapters later, the furtive young girl was the Mother of Dragons. 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Yet we all do anyway.

Dany had never met Drogo until the end of Danerys I. She was in Pentos with her brother under the protection of Magister Illyrio. Two chapters later, she was wed to Drogo and they had fallen in love with each other. Within two more chapters, she was in Vaes Dothrak and her brother was dead. Within three more chapters her sun-and-stars was dying on the edge of the Red Waste somewhere north of the Skahazadhan, and her world fell apart. Two chapters later, the furtive young girl was the Mother of Dragons. 

You also do know that an entire year passed through those chapters, right? Do you think TWoW and ADoS will cover a year together? I doubt they will.

I mean, sure, one hopes they will all get some time to breathe and meet and have genuine romance develop (the Jon/Dany thing has to happen, too) but the scope of the story makes this very, you know, difficult. Which may actually be part of the conundrum George is facing writing this stuff.

Dany and Jon deserve 500 pages together. At least as much time as Jon and Ygritte did - and there a good part of the focus was on the romance part, with nothing else happening, basically. I don't expect George will be able to write the Dany/Jon romance chapters even remotely in this way.

And if we go back to the Second Dance - this war actually deserves a lot of buildup. George is doing things pretty fast and - in my opinion not all that bad, with Arianne's secret jealousy of Quentyn/Dany, Jon Connington's greyscale, the way things are set up for Aegon's overwhelming (and completely dragonless) success. He might very well grown into another Young Dragon.

But the real focus has to be on the eventual escalation. And there it is just that especially Dany's people have no reason to fret or prepare for war against Aegon while they are not yet in Westeros. In that sense, an escalation could be helped along if hostilities would start before Dany even arrived. By way of assassination attempts as I suggest, perhaps also by helping the Free Cities to push back the dragon queen (I see Euron more in that role, but Aegon could involve himself there, too - although likely not with ships but rather, you know, moral and monetary support).

Following the example of the Battle of the Gullet the first major battle in this Second Dance might be Dany's botched attempt to land in Westeros. From there on it could be somewhat more 'dancy' if she calls upon the help of the Westerosi lords and people and many answer her call - like they did, when Rhaenyra did the same. Then we can have them split up between the Blacks and the Reds again, if that's what George wants to do.

I actually hope not, because there is really not time for a long Second Dance. Funnily, Dany's Westerosi supporters should mainly be her old enemies - the Starks and Northmen, the Lannisters/Westermen, etc. - all the people who are not likely to join Aegon as soon as he wins.

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You also do know that an entire year passed through those chapters, right? Do you think TWoW and ADoS will cover a year together? I doubt they will.

Well, I guess there's no reason to argue about it anymore. 

[Clegane'sPup]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You also do know that an entire year passed through those chapters, right? Do you think TWoW and ADoS will cover a year together? I doubt they will.

I am assuming that that you mean an entire year came to fruition in Game, book one of the tale. Help me out with this, how many books did it take to reach year 300?  And is there any reference as to what year it is at the conclusion of DwD. Thanks.

[Lord Varys]

14 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I am assuming that that you mean an entire year came to fruition in Game, book one of the tale. Help me out with this, how many books did it take to reach year 300?  And is there any reference as to what year it is at the conclusion of DwD. Thanks.

The better part of two books - ACoK and ASoS. Parts of AFfC still take place in 299 AC (the early stuff on the Iron Islands). As far as I know it is still 300 AC at the end of ADwD.

If you go back to AGoT then the time jumps between the chapters in that book cover, at times, much more than those in later books. Just think how far people like Tyrion and Dany traveled in AGoT - and how far characters travel in later books.

[Clegane'sPup]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The better part of two books - ACoK and ASoS. Parts of AFfC still take place in 299 AC (the early stuff on the Iron Islands). As far as I know it is still 300 AC at the end of ADwD.

If you go back to AGoT then the time jumps between the chapters in that book cover, at times, much more than those in later books. Just think how far people like Tyrion and Dany traveled in AGoT - and how far characters travel in later books.

Thanks. I was curious about something unrelated to the topic. The thread has been interesting. Ya'll get back to it.

[Varysblackfyre321]

On April 5, 2018 at 7:59 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

n Company are BLACKFYRE supporters, not Targaryen supporters. I don't think they ever wanted Viserys on the throne, and they had not spent the past 15 to 20 years to that end. They were happy to use him, but not to enthrone him. I know you don't think anyone cares about Blackfyre. But I don't agree with you. 

I don't see it either; Viserys would take one look at Aegon, and execute regardless if the boy was the son of Rheagar; either a fake or real he would be seen as a threat that Viserys could not allow to live again, and would turn the public against the Targyens.

[Mon ami]

On 4/2/2018 at 1:49 PM, Free folk Daemon said:

Any quotes from the books hinting towards this theory would be much appreciated. Thank you

Hey listen, you're not going to get a direct quote to support this.  Not from George.  Not until he wants us to know.  But yeah, I think Vary is a blackfyre supporter.  He may not be related to them by blood but he supports them.  Still, a dragon is a dragon and he will support a red as well as a black.  It may be more accurate to say Varys is a dragon friend.

[Megorova]

On 07.04.2018 at 7:02 PM, Lord Varys said:

Following the example of the Battle of the Gullet the first major battle in this Second Dance might be Dany's botched attempt to land in Westeros. From there on it could be somewhat more 'dancy' if she calls upon the help of the Westerosi lords and people and many answer her call - like they did, when Rhaenyra did the same. Then we can have them split up between the Blacks and the Reds again, if that's what George wants to do.

In one of Melisandre's visions, she saw arrival of Golden Company to Westeros, and them seizing castle near the sea. And after that, there were dragons. And probably sex. So could be that there will be no Jon X Dany in the books. Blackfyres were nearly entirely removed from the show, so could be that in the books, the one who will be with Dany, is going to be fAegon, while Jon will become a fire wight, same as Cat or Berric, and thus him and Dany won't happen.

Quote

Then the towers by the sea, crumbling as the dark tide came sweeping over them, rising from the depths. Shadows in the shape of skulls, skulls that turned to mist, bodies locked together in lust, writhing and rolling and clawing. Through curtains of fire great winged shadows wheeled against a hard blue sky.

Quote

Could the skulls in her vision have signified this bridge? Somehow Melisandre did not think so. “If it comes, that attack will be no more than a diversion. I saw towers by the sea, submerged beneath a black and bloody tide. That is where the heaviest blow will fall.”

“Eastwatch?”

Was it? Melisandre had seen Eastwatch-by-the-Sea with King Stannis. That was where His Grace left Queen Selyse and their daughter Shireen when he assembled his knights for the march to Castle Black. The towers in her fire had been different, but that was oft the way with visions. “Yes. Eastwatch, my lord.”

The tide with skulls, that attacked sea towers, was black and red - Targaryen colors. fAegon said to JonCon that when they will be attaking Storm's End, he's also going to go there. So probably by that time, they will be already using Targaryen banners. 

Or maybe the towers by the sea is Red Keep. So that vision is about fAegon's last battle, prior he will be crowned as new King of 7K.

And winged shadows in curtains of fire are obviously Dany's dragons. So it seems, that she will arrive to Westeros some time after fAegon. Thus that "bodies locked together in lust" are probably either fAegonXDany, or fAegonXArianne, or dragonXY X dragonXX.

If Rhaego is dead, then maybe the other two dragonriders will be fAegon and Jon. So could be, that by the time when Dany will meet Jon, she will be already with fAegon as her husband.

Either way, it seems that by the time, when Dany will arive to Westeros, fAegon will be already the King of 7K. For the Dance of the Dragons to happen between them, fAegon has to be a person with power, someone who is closest to Iron Throne, like Aegon II was. So Dany is Rhaenyra V2.0, the Queen that arrived too late. Though this time she has dragons, and her opponent doesn't.

[Der Karrenkönig]

On ‎07‎.‎04‎.‎2018 at 2:23 PM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, a Faceless Man might go after Daenerys as well, but I think the House of Black and White themselves will decide to send such an assassin - on behalf of the Iron Bank (which they might actually be a large shareholder in) and due to her having dragons. In fact, they might send Arya and Jaqen to take out not only Daenerys Targaryen but especially her dragons.

There is a reason why Tycho Nestoris didn't laugh about Jon's little joke about dragons.

Where could I find this theory? 

As to Belwas: There might be no motivation in camp Aegon to compromise with Daenerys by the time they take her out.

Perhaps not that much, but none at all is still a bit unrealistic. There should be still those guys around who want to prevent such a big bloody war like this and prefer peace.  

It would be rather difficult to connect a Faceless Man to Illyrio - or Aegon. Dany has more than enough enemies who might dispatch such an assassin.

Exactly.

I honestly don't think Aegon is going to bind up any wounds. He'll try, and he'll look as if he could do it, and then he'll fail. And he won't defeat Euron, that's for sure. He has no navy. I'm reasonably confident that Aegon and Euron won't clash personally - there are thousands of leagues between them right now, and Aegon is after the big price - the Iron Throne - not about protecting the Reach from some pirate king.

He could get a navy, you know. Aurane Waters is likely to join him, he could get perhaps some sellsword fleets, like that of Salladhor Saan, through Illyrio's money and connections in the free citys and if some of those Redwyne-Hightower ships survive Euron's Battle of Blood and flee they are also likely ending up in Aegon's hands. Yes, Aegon is now after the big price and after his coronation in KL, he will have to care for Westeros' wounds and seriosly try to bind them up.

But if they clashed for some reason I'd not wager any money on Aegon. The man is a sorcerer. And if Euron crushes the Redwyne fleet and takes the Arbor he'll become a very serious contender for the Iron Throne. And his smiling eye might actually win him enough followers to remain more than a thorn in Aegon's side, especially if he ended up teaming up with Cersei.

Even a "sorcerer" can bleed. Euron will became a serios contender after he has crushed the Redwyne-Hightower fleet and has taken the Arbor; so will Aegon after he took Storm's End, defeated this big Tyrell army and took KL. Aegon's smiling eye might became much more effective than Euron's ever will. His smiling eye might bind the Ironborn even more to him, but except for Cersei and those part of the Westerman she could bring to his cause only some other morons like Falia Flowers could join him. The man is a psycho and an ironborn and even after his victories in the south he still has no prospect to conquer whole Westeros or even hold it. He could certainly remain a thorn in Aegon's side even until Dany arrives or he could be put down by him, there are very much possibilities, how the story could continue. But he will not defeat Aegon, that's to say for sure.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

@Der Karrenkönig

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Where could I find this theory? 

I guess in some of my postings. I must have laid that out a couple of times. The idea is that the Braavos/the Iron Bank deciding to back Stannis - in combination with the traditional Braavosi fear of dragons - might cause the Faceless Men to finally resolve the dragonlord issue once and for all.

There is a reason why Jaqen is infiltrating the Citadel. He looks for the book that lays out how you kill dragons. And when he has it, he'll pay Daenerys Targaryen a visit. And considering that Arya needs a very good motivation to break with the Faceless Men - and get back into the main story - she might accompany him and realize on the way that it would be stupid to kill the Breaker of Shackles as well as killing the last living dragons. Especially in light of what's going on beyond the Wall (which she and the Faceless Men should learn from Stannis' envoys).

It might be that Jaqen acts on behalf of a third party, but I really don't believe that. The Faceless Men are not just a guild of assassins.

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Perhaps not that much, but none at all is still a bit unrealistic. There should be still those guys around who want to prevent such a big bloody war like this and prefer peace.  

Those people would not be the ones orchestrating this assassination attempt. Illyrio and/or Varys might act on their own, never asking Aegon, Connington, Arianne, or anyone for their opinion.

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Exactly.

The point of the Belwas idea is that Dany will connect the dots there, and conclude that Illyrio/Varys (and thus Aegon) want her dead. And if she loses some loved ones - or is disfigured, crippled, hurt in this attempt - she might be unwilling to show any mercy afterwards. It would be a plot device to explain why war is now inevitable.

A Faceless Men could accomplish that, too, but only if they caught him/her alive, and he/she ended up telling the truth. If it was Arya - say, killing Jaqen to save Dany and revealing who paid them for the death of Dany and the dragons - then this could work, too. But I really don't think Arya will spend enough time in Braavos to be around there when Varys/Illyrio decide to hire a Faceless Man to rid themselves of Daenerys. At this point this would still take a lot of time, at least until the news that Dany is not dead and on her way west arrives in Westeros - which is going to take a long, long time.

But the House of Black and White could actually dispatch their assassins to wherever Daenerys is in the second half of TWoW (after Jaqen has returned to Braavos and Arya has been completed her apprenticeship and become a fully-fledged Faceless Girl.

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He could get a navy, you know. Aurane Waters is likely to join him, he could get perhaps some sellsword fleets, like that of Salladhor Saan, through Illyrio's money and connections in the free citys and if some of those Redwyne-Hightower ships survive Euron's Battle of Blood and flee they are also likely ending up in Aegon's hands. Yes, Aegon is now after the big price and after his coronation in KL, he will have to care for Westeros' wounds and seriosly try to bind them up.

That would still not help against Euron. If Euron crushes the Redwynes and takes the Arbor the entire southern coasts will be defenseless against him. The Hightowers and others will deal with him. And Euron can pretend to be nice. It is not that those men actually know who and what he is.

Aurane's few ships won't stand a chance against Euron. The Three Daughters could, presumably, but they will look east, not west. They will fear the dragon queen and her movement to free the slaves. Especially after Volantis has fallen.

They will need a vast navy to crush Dany's armada, and that might be the chance for Euron to join them - as the supreme commander of the anti-Daenerys coalition, with Cersei at his side - and his true agenda being to capture Daenerys, the ultimate price, to wrest the Iron Throne from Aegon.

As to Aegon - he has a Hand suffering from greyscale. That's going to lead to a very dark place - either he himself will become infected, turning into the Stone King, or - more likely - Connington is going to accidentally cause a pandemic of the adult strain of greyscale or even the grey plague. Even if people would not blame Aegon for the whole thing - which they would if they realized that Connington brought the disease to Westeros - he might have to take very drastic measure to contain the plague, making him as popular as Quenton Hightower.

This doesn't mean he won't have power - and also not that there might be a significant portion of people willing to kill and die for the man. But I very much doubt the boy will look like the savior Varys and Illyrio wanted to create.

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Even a "sorcerer" can bleed. Euron will became a serios contender after he has crushed the Redwyne-Hightower fleet and has taken the Arbor; so will Aegon after he took Storm's End, defeated this big Tyrell army and took KL. Aegon's smiling eye might became much more effective than Euron's ever will. His smiling eye might bind the Ironborn even more to him, but except for Cersei and those part of the Westerman she could bring to his cause only some other morons like Falia Flowers could join him. The man is a psycho and an ironborn and even after his victories in the south he still has no prospect to conquer whole Westeros or even hold it. He could certainly remain a thorn in Aegon's side even until Dany arrives or he could be put down by him, there are very much possibilities, how the story could continue. But he will not defeat Aegon, that's to say for sure.

Again, people don't know Euron and Aegon ruling the land is not going to help him save the people from the Ironborn controlling the sea. If you control the sea in a medieval setting you presume to 'rule the waves', never mind that you are just some backwater island of pirate lords. And it is not that the Reach and other people living in the coastal areas didn't do homage to the Ironborn kings in the past.

There is a reason why they did that - that they might do it again in the future. And if they do that, then Euron can quickly gain a foothold on the mainland, especially if the Lannisters and the West join him (which is not unrealistic at all, considering the hatred between Cersei and the Tyrells, and the possibility that Aegon might take the Iron Throne over the dead bodies of Tommen and Myrcella).

But, sure, I never said that I think Euron will defeat or kill Aegon - I just I think he would do that if they ever clashed. But I do not necessarily think Aegon is going to be 'the big bad' - or even Dany's main opponent - in this Second Dance thing. That will be Euron. He is the one to last. He might even survive all the fighting to come back as the last, ugly surprise when the Others have been long dealt with. If this series is building up a really powerful antagonist it is Euron Greyjoy. Everybody else pales in comparison to that man.

[Der Karrenkönig]

On ‎08‎.‎04‎.‎2018 at 10:46 PM, Lord Varys said:

@Der Karrenkönig

I guess in some of my postings. I must have laid that out a couple of times. The idea is that the Braavos/the Iron Bank deciding to back Stannis - in combination with the traditional Braavosi fear of dragons - might cause the Faceless Men to finally resolve the dragonlord issue once and for all.

There is a reason why Jaqen is infiltrating the Citadel. He looks for the book that lays out how you kill dragons. And when he has it, he'll pay Daenerys Targaryen a visit. And considering that Arya needs a very good motivation to break with the Faceless Men - and get back into the main story - she might accompany him and realize on the way that it would be stupid to kill the Breaker of Shackles as well as killing the last living dragons. Especially in light of what's going on beyond the Wall (which she and the Faceless Men should learn from Stannis' envoys).

It might be that Jaqen acts on behalf of a third party, but I really don't believe that. The Faceless Men are not just a guild of assassins.

But is Jaqen after the book? Or is he after Marwyn's working glass candle? I mean the man is now in Marwyn's inner circle and has access to the glass candle. How did he get there? I think he used that knowledge in the book, to impress Marwyn, and that's why he's in his inner circle now, but I have no good idea right now, for what exactly he needs that glass candle.

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Those people would not be the ones orchestrating this assassination attempt. Illyrio and/or Varys might act on their own, never asking Aegon, Connington, Arianne, or anyone for their opinion.

The point of the Belwas idea is that Dany will connect the dots there, and conclude that Illyrio/Varys (and thus Aegon) want her dead. And if she loses some loved ones - or is disfigured, crippled, hurt in this attempt - she might be unwilling to show any mercy afterwards. It would be a plot device to explain why war is now inevitable.

A Faceless Men could accomplish that, too, but only if they caught him/her alive, and he/she ended up telling the truth. If it was Arya - say, killing Jaqen to save Dany and revealing who paid them for the death of Dany and the dragons - then this could work, too. But I really don't think Arya will spend enough time in Braavos to be around there when Varys/Illyrio decide to hire a Faceless Man to rid themselves of Daenerys. At this point this would still take a lot of time, at least until the news that Dany is not dead and on her way west arrives in Westeros - which is going to take a long, long time.

But the House of Black and White could actually dispatch their assassins to wherever Daenerys is in the second half of TWoW (after Jaqen has returned to Braavos and Arya has been completed her apprenticeship and become a fully-fledged Faceless Girl.

Yes, but there are other possibilities, how this plot device could happen (I layed an idea out under the next comment), An assasination attempt is also possible, but if so, it wouldn't be Belwas, Varys and Illyrio are simply not dumb and venturesome enough for that.

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Aurane's few ships won't stand a chance against Euron. The Three Daughters could, presumably, but they will look east, not west. They will fear the dragon queen and her movement to free the slaves. Especially after Volantis has fallen.

They will need a vast navy to crush Dany's armada, and that might be the chance for Euron to join them - as the supreme commander of the anti-Daenerys coalition, with Cersei at his side - and his true agenda being to capture Daenerys, the ultimate price, to wrest the Iron Throne from Aegon.

As to Aegon - he has a Hand suffering from greyscale. That's going to lead to a very dark place - either he himself will become infected, turning into the Stone King, or - more likely - Connington is going to accidentally cause a pandemic of the adult strain of greyscale or even the grey plague. Even if people would not blame Aegon for the whole thing - which they would if they realized that Connington brought the disease to Westeros - he might have to take very drastic measure to contain the plague, making him as popular as Quenton Hightower.

This doesn't mean he won't have power - and also not that there might be a significant portion of people willing to kill and die for the man. But I very much doubt the boy will look like the savior Varys and Illyrio wanted to create.

Those ships Aegon could get might not stand a chance against Euron with brute force alone, but he could possibly win with trickery and tactic. For example wildfire could help Aegon in that.

I assume that Aegon will try to defeat Euron and his ironmen, while you assume that Euron will survive long enough to join the Anti-Daenerys-coalition. There are still possibilities in which we both could be right. For example if Aegon deals some severe blows to Euron, forcing him to flee east where he joins the Free Cities, or if Aegon sails against Euron only to find out, that he has already sailed east and left only some Ironborn Lord and his men on the Arbor. 

As to the greyscale thing, that is only pure speculation, there are a lot of other possibilities how this could continue. Jon clearly doesn't want to infect anyone, he want's to end his life, after he has ended Robert's line and put Aegon on throne. One example how this could play out is for example if Dany makes her intention clear to dethrone Aegon and denunciates him as a Blackfyre pretender, Jon could pretend to buy this and join Dany with the intention to infect as a many (important) people in her camp before he is discovered as a last act of loyalty towards Aegon and revenge against Tyrion who would support Dany in all of that. But that's just one idea of mine, there are a lot others, how Jon's greyscale story could continue, it must not even lead to a (mass) infection of other people.

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Again, people don't know Euron and Aegon ruling the land is not going to help him save the people from the Ironborn controlling the sea. If you control the sea in a medieval setting you presume to 'rule the waves', never mind that you are just some backwater island of pirate lords. And it is not that the Reach and other people living in the coastal areas didn't do homage to the Ironborn kings in the past.

There is a reason why they did that - that they might do it again in the future. And if they do that, then Euron can quickly gain a foothold on the mainland, especially if the Lannisters and the West join him (which is not unrealistic at all, considering the hatred between Cersei and the Tyrells, and the possibility that Aegon might take the Iron Throne over the dead bodies of Tommen and Myrcella).

But, sure, I never said that I think Euron will defeat or kill Aegon - I just I think he would do that if they ever clashed. But I do not necessarily think Aegon is going to be 'the big bad' - or even Dany's main opponent - in this Second Dance thing. That will be Euron. He is the one to last. He might even survive all the fighting to come back as the last, ugly surprise when the Others have been long dealt with. If this series is building up a really powerful antagonist it is Euron Greyjoy. Everybody else pales in comparison to that man.

Yes, it is not unrealistic at all, that Cersei joins Euron, but I don't think that she would bring the entire West to his cause in that case, only that part that would be still loyal to her then. People would question Cersei very much about this and don't like the idea to join that mad pirate king. Additionally Jaime will most likely become Aegon's man and he will likely try to get most of the West to join Aegon as well. But if some of those Reachmen join Euron out of fear, they will betray him, as soon as they get the chance to do it. You could be right that Euron is the one to last very long, but that doesn't mean he is undefeatable, Aegon could very well deal him some heavy blows, if he plays his cards right, but that must not result in Euron's death. He could possibly flee in that case with whatever force he still has and learn from his mistakes for fighting Dany or Aegon again after that.

[Der Karrenkönig]

On ‎08‎.‎04‎.‎2018 at 8:53 PM, Megorova said:

 Though this time she has dragons, and her opponent doesn't.

That is neither certain nor likely. It is not that unlikely, that Viserion or Rhaegel ends up on Aegon's side somehow. If not the Cannibal could reappear and and could be used by Aegon. The title of the war "Second Dance of Dragons" strongly implies that both Aegon and Dany have dragons at that point.