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Free folk Daemon

Is Varys a Blackfyre?

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1 hour ago, Der Karrenkönig said:

The title of the war "Second Dance of Dragons" strongly implies that both Aegon and Dany have dragons at that point.

Not necessary. Targaryens and Blackfyres are also dragons. So the Second Dance could be just a war or confrontation between Dany and fAegon.

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57 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Not necessary. Targaryens and Blackfyres are also dragons. So the Second Dance could be just a war or confrontation between Dany and fAegon.

It'd be a pretty short war with three dragons on one side and none on the other. Then again, five of the seven kingdoms chose to fight Aegon the Dragon and his sisters, and Dorne was never totally defeated. 

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On 9.4.2018 at 10:12 PM, Der Karrenkönig said:

But is Jaqen after the book? Or is he after Marwyn's working glass candle? I mean the man is now in Marwyn's inner circle and has access to the glass candle. How did he get there? I think he used that knowledge in the book, to impress Marwyn, and that's why he's in his inner circle now, but I have no good idea right now, for what exactly he needs that glass candle.

One assumes Marwyn takes his glass candle with him - not to mention that any maester taking his vows actually spends time with one of the glass candles the Citadel owns. Jaqen wouldn't need the key of an archmaester to get a glass candle - assuming he would have to go to Oldtown for that at all (which is not that likely - in the Free Cities should also be some such artifacts).

The book is the thing that's supposed to be under lock and key in the vaults.

On 9.4.2018 at 10:12 PM, Der Karrenkönig said:

Yes, but there are other possibilities, how this plot device could happen (I layed an idea out under the next comment), An assasination attempt is also possible, but if so, it wouldn't be Belwas, Varys and Illyrio are simply not dumb and venturesome enough for that.

Only under the assumption that we actually do know the depth of Belwas' character at this point. And I think that we can't be sure that we do.

On 9.4.2018 at 10:12 PM, Der Karrenkönig said:

Those ships Aegon could get might not stand a chance against Euron with brute force alone, but he could possibly win with trickery and tactic. For example wildfire could help Aegon in that.

Euron has hundreds of ships. Aurane Waters has, how many? A dozen? A score? He is no match against Euron.

On 9.4.2018 at 10:12 PM, Der Karrenkönig said:

I assume that Aegon will try to defeat Euron and his ironmen, while you assume that Euron will survive long enough to join the Anti-Daenerys-coalition. There are still possibilities in which we both could be right. For example if Aegon deals some severe blows to Euron, forcing him to flee east where he joins the Free Cities, or if Aegon sails against Euron only to find out, that he has already sailed east and left only some Ironborn Lord and his men on the Arbor. 

Euron is the great antagonist. Aegon literally pales in comparison to him. Aegon isn't even the main character of his own story. Euron isn't a POV, either, sure, but he undoubtedly the center of all those new Greyjoy POVs. Everything revolves around him.

But Aegon is little more than an extra in his story. Connington, Haldon, Lemore, Strickland, possibly even Duck are more developed characters than 'the lad'. That may change in the future, but I'm not holding my breath.

If Euron actually ends up using magic to destroy the Redwyne fleet then nobody is likely going to be stupid/mad enough to challenge him in battle. A man controlling the elements/sea is a very dangerous opponent.

On 9.4.2018 at 10:12 PM, Der Karrenkönig said:

As to the greyscale thing, that is only pure speculation, there are a lot of other possibilities how this could continue. Jon clearly doesn't want to infect anyone, he want's to end his life, after he has ended Robert's line and put Aegon on throne. One example how this could play out is for example if Dany makes her intention clear to dethrone Aegon and denunciates him as a Blackfyre pretender, Jon could pretend to buy this and join Dany with the intention to infect as a many (important) people in her camp before he is discovered as a last act of loyalty towards Aegon and revenge against Tyrion who would support Dany in all of that. But that's just one idea of mine, there are a lot others, how Jon's greyscale story could continue, it must not even lead to a (mass) infection of other people.

Anything else would be rather boring, if you ask me. It is clear that he doesn't want to infect other people, but we don't always get what we want (especially not Jon Connington). Besides, there is also a reason why the author chose to not have Connington hack off the infected fingers. That should have consequences - and him infecting other people by touching them (or though them touching his clothes, etc.) - is simply the likeliest scenario.

On 9.4.2018 at 10:12 PM, Der Karrenkönig said:

Yes, it is not unrealistic at all, that Cersei joins Euron, but I don't think that she would bring the entire West to his cause in that case, only that part that would be still loyal to her then. People would question Cersei very much about this and don't like the idea to join that mad pirate king. Additionally Jaime will most likely become Aegon's man and he will likely try to get most of the West to join Aegon as well. But if some of those Reachmen join Euron out of fear, they will betray him, as soon as they get the chance to do it. You could be right that Euron is the one to last very long, but that doesn't mean he is undefeatable, Aegon could very well deal him some heavy blows, if he plays his cards right, but that must not result in Euron's death. He could possibly flee in that case with whatever force he still has and learn from his mistakes for fighting Dany or Aegon again after that.

Cersei is the Lady of Casterly Rock. And the way the Tyrells and the Faith treated her - not to mention that they murdered Ser Kevan (at least in their mind - in addition with whatever is going to happen to Tommen and Myrcella, the chances are pretty good that the majority of the West will stand with Cersei.

And if Aegon - or his people - have a hand in Tommen/Myrcella's deaths then the chances aren't that good that a majority of the Westermen will stand with Aegon. There are some Westermen I expect to join Aegon - at least at first -, the Plumms prominently among them, but if/when Cersei returns back home to Casterly Rock the West should bow to her. She is the Lioness, and she will get what she want.

Especially if she comes with her king consort, Euron Greyjoy, and a vast navy. Lannisport is coastal city. The West will fall in line or face Cersei and Euron's wrath.

Jaime likely will join Aegon - but he is just a Kingsguard knight without a family now. He rejected power and influence in the West when he refused to leave the KG. When Tommen/Myrcella are dead all authority in the West he way have had (as Lord Commander of the Kingsguard of King Tommen) will evaporate.

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2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

It'd be a pretty short war with three dragons on one side and none on the other. Then again, five of the seven kingdoms chose to fight Aegon the Dragon and his sisters, and Dorne was never totally defeated. 

And one of those sisters got killed by Dornishmen, together with her dragon, her HUGE dragon. While Dany is alone, and furthermore her dragons are not bigger than a horse, or a bull. So it's enough to kill only her, and then that will be the end of Dancing Dragons.

Also unless she will know for sure, that Aegon is really not her nephew, it's unlikely that she will use her dragons against him. And also she won't use her dragons against those people, that were supporting Aegon because he is a Targaryen. Will she burn people, just because they rallied under Targaryen banners, and supported Aegon Targaryen?

And even if she will find out, that he is a Blackfyre, and not actually a Targaryen, there will still be reasons for her not to kill him. He's dragonblood, Valyrian, good looking, even if he is not a Targaryen, and a Blackfyre instead, then he still has more Targaryen blood than anyone else, whom Dany knows (obviously that he has higher percentage of Targaryen blood than Ben Plumm). Eventually Dany needs to marry. And she has lots in common with Young Griff, whether he's real, or whether he's a pretender. So he's one of possible options, to become her husband number 3.

So I don't see her using dragons against him, unless he will do against her something really awful.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The book is the thing that's supposed to be under lock and key in the vaults.

Or documents. Such as wedding certificate of certain royal couple, or birth certificate of certain royal offspring.

Or maester's personal diary. Most likely, when Lyanna was giving birth, there was a maester there. And it's unlikely that Ned killed him. Aren't they (maesters/doctors) not supposed to reveal personal information of their patients to other people? Thus secret of Jon's birth is safe, even if there were other people at the Tower, including some maester, that helped Lyanna during her labor, and then recorded info about birth of a Targaryen prince. 

First Jaqen went to Red Keep, to search thru Targaryens' personal library or archives, where he found information about the promised Prince prophecy, and what Rhaegar and other Targs knew about it. And then he found out that Rhaegar thought, that there should be one more. And thus that may have been a reason, why he kidnapped Lyanna Stark. Could be that they married, and had a child. So information about that should be at Citadel. And the one who has it, is probably one of archmaesters (and that person may not even be aware, what's in those archives, that he has/got from his predecessor).

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14 hours ago, Der Karrenkönig said:

That is neither certain nor likely. It is not that unlikely, that Viserion or Rhaegel ends up on Aegon's side somehow. If not the Cannibal could reappear and and could be used by Aegon. The title of the war "Second Dance of Dragons" strongly implies that both Aegon and Dany have dragons at that point.

Again, chances are that the name 'Second Dance of the Dragons' as a name for a war between Daenerys and Aegon will come up not because there are dragons on each side but because a female pretender challenging a Targaryen king named Aegon will be very reminiscent of the Dance of the Dragons.

The Second Dance is not going to resemble the first in many ways - and the least should be the dragons. Both the dragons and the Targaryens were very numerous back during the Dance. This time we'll have just two Targaryen pretenders, and perhaps their families by marriages. Tyrion could join the fray as a dragonseed and dragonrider, Arianne may become a Targaryen by marriage (and could even give Aegon an heir, a child that could also end up being accepted as Dany's presumptive heir while she believes she can't/doesn't have any children of her own), not to mention Dany's own multiple husbands (Tyrion perhaps among them).

But unless we get the return of the Cannibal - which I'd actually like - the dragons are not going to play even remotely the same role as they did back during the First Dance. Vhagar's very existence put fear in the hearts of Rhaenyra and her followers, not to mention the people of Westeros. None of Dany's dragons will ever grow to that enormous size.

There can be dragon vs. dragon battles, of course, and the dragonriders can serve as scouts and messengers and put awe and wonder in the people of the other side, but they won't be utilized as weapons of terror. There won't be another Harrenhal, nor a Field of Fire. It will be winter. Dragonfire can burn some soldiers, but if we assume Dany's three dragonriders and a weak host being attacked by a very large host of Aegon's the dragons are not necessarily going to work miracles. If the fighting took place during a snowstorm, the dragons might not even be able to fly properly, let alone precisely target the enemy. And on the ground Dany's dragons aren't even remotely as effective or dangerous as they can be in the air.

The only real power, I think, Dany's dragons will have is the simple fact that dragons are usually see as a divine sign of kingship. Dany is the Mother of Dragons, Aegon is not. If he has to deal with her - really deal with her when she is there, he won't stand a chance. Which is why I think they will try to take her out before she can come and use her dragons as propaganda tools.

Aegon's own legitimacy could be strengthened if George gives him some dragons - say, from the eggs Illyrio likely gave him in one of those chests. If Aegon can hatch dragon eggs, too - or if his eggs just hatched, caused by the presence of Dany's dragons in the world - then he might really be seen as wondrous/magical as Daenerys. But such young dragon hatchlings are not likely going to be grow large enough to be used in a war. Still they would be living wonders and make him look better than he does now.

11 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

It'd be a pretty short war with three dragons on one side and none on the other. Then again, five of the seven kingdoms chose to fight Aegon the Dragon and his sisters, and Dorne was never totally defeated. 

It is also likely going to be a rather short with three dragons on different sides. The dragons will fight, Drogon will win, and Dany is going to feed Aegon to her dragon. End of story.

I mean, if it is just Dany's dragons it should be a rather poor Dance of the Dragons. And what we learned from the Dance implies that dragons are not going to be able to last through a succession of dragon vs. dragon battles. They are all roughly of equal size, which means that we are not likely to see them getting out of a battle unscathed/unharmed unless we see two dragonriders team up and rip a third dragon to pieces (which could very well be how Aegon meets his end if he becomes a dragonrider).

Drogon vs. Viserion/Rhaegal or Rhaegal vs. Viserion might have one dragon killing the other, but only at the price of the other dragon being severely injured or crippled. Unless a dragon attacks the other in a successful surprise attack, chances are very high that both are going to be injured severely.

In fact, a proper Second Dance of the Dragons should successfully neutralize Dany's dragons in the fight against the Others. Drogon could very well end up like Sunfyre if he has to fight repeatedly against both Viserion and/or Rhaegal.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Again, chances are that the name 'Second Dance of the Dragons' as a name for a war between Daenerys and Aegon will come up not because there are dragons on each side but because a female pretender challenging a Targaryen king named Aegon will be very reminiscent of the Dance of the Dragons.

The Second Dance is not going to resemble the first in many ways - and the least should be the dragons. Both the dragons and the Targaryens were very numerous back during the Dance. This time we'll have just two Targaryen pretenders, and perhaps their families by marriages. Tyrion could join the fray as a dragonseed and dragonrider, Arianne may become a Targaryen by marriage (and could even give Aegon an heir, a child that could also end up being accepted as Dany's presumptive heir while she believes she can't/doesn't have any children of her own), not to mention Dany's own multiple husbands (Tyrion perhaps among them).

But unless we get the return of the Cannibal - which I'd actually like - the dragons are not going to play even remotely the same role as they did back during the First Dance. Vhagar's very existence put fear in the hearts of Rhaenyra and her followers, not to mention the people of Westeros. None of Dany's dragons will ever grow to that enormous size.

There can be dragon vs. dragon battles, of course, and the dragonriders can serve as scouts and messengers and put awe and wonder in the people of the other side, but they won't be utilized as weapons of terror. There won't be another Harrenhal, nor a Field of Fire. It will be winter. Dragonfire can burn some soldiers, but if we assume Dany's three dragonriders and a weak host being attacked by a very large host of Aegon's the dragons are not necessarily going to work miracles. If the fighting took place during a snowstorm, the dragons might not even be able to fly properly, let alone precisely target the enemy. And on the ground Dany's dragons aren't even remotely as effective or dangerous as they can be in the air.

The only real power, I think, Dany's dragons will have is the simple fact that dragons are usually see as a divine sign of kingship. Dany is the Mother of Dragons, Aegon is not. If he has to deal with her - really deal with her when she is there, he won't stand a chance. Which is why I think they will try to take her out before she can come and use her dragons as propaganda tools.

Aegon's own legitimacy could be strengthened if George gives him some dragons - say, from the eggs Illyrio likely gave him in one of those chests. If Aegon can hatch dragon eggs, too - or if his eggs just hatched, caused by the presence of Dany's dragons in the world - then he might really be seen as wondrous/magical as Daenerys. But such young dragon hatchlings are not likely going to be grow large enough to be used in a war. Still they would be living wonders and make him look better than he does now.

It is also likely going to be a rather short with three dragons on different sides. The dragons will fight, Drogon will win, and Dany is going to feed Aegon to her dragon. End of story.

I mean, if it is just Dany's dragons it should be a rather poor Dance of the Dragons. And what we learned from the Dance implies that dragons are not going to be able to last through a succession of dragon vs. dragon battles. They are all roughly of equal size, which means that we are not likely to see them getting out of a battle unscathed/unharmed unless we see two dragonriders team up and rip a third dragon to pieces (which could very well be how Aegon meets his end if he becomes a dragonrider).

Drogon vs. Viserion/Rhaegal or Rhaegal vs. Viserion might have one dragon killing the other, but only at the price of the other dragon being severely injured or crippled. Unless a dragon attacks the other in a successful surprise attack, chances are very high that both are going to be injured severely.

In fact, a proper Second Dance of the Dragons should successfully neutralize Dany's dragons in the fight against the Others. Drogon could very well end up like Sunfyre if he has to fight repeatedly against both Viserion and/or Rhaegal.

Yeap. 

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Oh damn the this is now far off topic

 

Also, all I can say is there must be a clear reason why Varys shaves his head. This is what Egg, AKA Aegon Targaryen did to hide his identity. Also, the book mentions a sorcerer picking him out specifically and he paid a good price. That same sorcerer then proceeded to castrate Varys and burn it or something, I think. Most likely, the man is a Red Priest and what do red priests do? They use Kings Blood in their rituals. This points to Varys being a Targ. But he could also be a Blackfyre from the female line (Are they considered kings though?). Even if he is not a dragon, he has dragon blood in him and probably has platinum gold hair with purple eyes (The people of Lys have dragon blood in them, more so than the other cities).

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon's own legitimacy could be strengthened if George gives him some dragons - say, from the eggs Illyrio likely gave him in one of those chests.

ADWD, Tyrion II & III: "Next you will be offering me a suit of magic armor and a palace in Valyria."

" “Those chests we brought you,” he said as they were chewing. “Gold for the Golden Company, I thought at first, until I saw Ser Rolly hoist a chest onto one shoulder. If it were full of coin, he could never have lifted it so easily.”

It’s just armor,” said Duck, with a shrug. “Clothing as well,” Haldon broke in. “Court clothes, for all our party. Fine woolens, velvets, silken cloaks. One does not come before a queen looking shabby … nor empty-handed. The magister has been kind enough to provide us with suitable gifts.” "

Jon XII: "Jon was armored in black ice, but his blade burned red in his fist."

ACOK, Dany IV: "Rubies flew like drops of blood from the chest of a dying prince, and he sank to his knees in the water and with his last breath murmured a woman’s name."

AGOT, Eddard I: "They had come together at the ford of the Trident while the battle crashed around them, Robert with his warhammer and his great antlered helm, the Targaryen prince armored all in black. On his breastplate was the three-headed dragon of his House, wrought all in rubies that flashed like fire in the sunlight. The waters of the Trident ran red around the hooves of their destriers as they circled and clashed, again and again, until at last a crushing blow from Robert’s hammer stove in the dragon and the chest beneath it. When Ned had finally come on the scene, Rhaegar lay dead in the stream, while men of both armies scrabbled in the swirling waters for rubies knocked free of his armor."

 

So could be that, what Duck said to Tyrion, was the truth - there was armor in those chests. Either replica of Rhaegar's black armor, or it is his armor, stolen and repaired on Varys' order. They planned that fAegon will be seen by people of 7K, under Targaryen banners, and in Rhaegar's armor. But eventually that armor will be worn by Jon, when he will be fighting against the Undead Army. Maybe that armor is really magical.

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2 hours ago, Brynden Blackfyre said:

Oh damn the this is now far off topic

 

Also, all I can say is there must be a clear reason why Varys shaves his head. This is what Egg, AKA Aegon Targaryen did to hide his identity. Also, the book mentions a sorcerer picking him out specifically and he paid a good price. That same sorcerer then proceeded to castrate Varys and burn it or something, I think. Most likely, the man is a Red Priest and what do red priests do? They use Kings Blood in their rituals. This points to Varys being a Targ. But he could also be a Blackfyre from the female line (Are they considered kings though?). Even if he is not a dragon, he has dragon blood in him and probably has platinum gold hair with purple eyes (The people of Lys have dragon blood in them, more so than the other cities).

Just playing Devil's advocate... Varys might simply shave his head for a mummers' cut to facilitate disguise. We can only speculate that the wizard wanted him for king's blood. He might have just wanted to fry up any ol' sausage and biscuits. And we don't know the color of Varys's eyes... yet. 

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27 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Just playing Devil's advocate... Varys might simply shave his head for a mummers' cut to facilitate disguise. We can only speculate that the wizard wanted him for king's blood. He might have just wanted to fry up any ol' sausage and biscuits. And we don't know the color of Varys's eyes... yet. 

The official portraits give them as brown - sure, George isn't bound by those, but he did give Amok and the other artists descriptions. One would assume he would have told them to make the eyes purple (or blue, at least) if he wanted to create a Valyrian connection there.

He could still give him silver-gold hair, I guess, but I'm not holding my breath for that, either. So many Targaryen descendants didn't have Valyrian features; there is really no reason to assume that Varys has to have them to be descended from them.

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3 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The official portraits give them as brown - sure, George isn't bound by those, but he did give Amok and the other artists descriptions. One would assume he would have told them to make the eyes purple (or blue, at least) if he wanted to create a Valyrian connection there.

He could still give him silver-gold hair, I guess, but I'm not holding my breath for that, either. So many Targaryen descendants didn't have Valyrian features; there is really no reason to assume that Varys has to have them to be descended from them.

The resolution on my phone is not good enough to distinguish Varys's exact eye color in Amok's portrait other than to say they look dark... maybe in a certain lamplight...

Against Lemore is Ashara theories, we often argue that Tyrion would have noted haunting violet eyes, but such an observation as to Varys could be overlooked quite understandably since all know he is from Lys, and purple eyes are common in Lys, even among the smallfolk. 

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23 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The resolution on my phone is not good enough to distinguish Varys's exact eye color in Amok's portrait other than to say they look dark... maybe in a certain lamplight...

Hm. Then I might misremember and George said somewhere the dude has brown eyes. I'm really sure I read that somewhere. I was once not uninterested in the guy, you know.

23 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Against Lemore is Ashara theories, we often argue that Tyrion would have noted haunting violet eyes, but such an observation as to Varys could be overlooked quite understandably since all know he is from Lys, and purple eyes are common in Lys, even among the smallfolk. 

That is actually a very good point. And since Varys being supposedly born in Lys could also mean he is Lysene by birth makes it even better.

And I'm not sure we know Salladhor Saan's eye color at this point, either. But then, we do know the hair and eye color of Lysono Maar.

I'd like it when Varys' looks reflected his ancestry somewhat. I'm just pointing out that he could be another Baelor Breakspear, Jon Snow, Duncan Targaryen, etc.

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13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Hm. Then I might misremember and George said somewhere the dude has brown eyes. I'm really sure I read that somewhere. I was once not uninterested in the guy, you know.

That is actually a very good point. And since Varys being supposedly born in Lys could also mean he is Lysene by birth makes it even better.

And I'm not sure we know Salladhor Saan's eye color at this point, either. But then, we do know the hair and eye color of Lysono Maar.

I'd like it when Varys' looks reflected his ancestry somewhat. I'm just pointing out that he could be another Baelor Breakspear, Jon Snow, Duncan Targaryen, etc.

Wow, usually what I say makes "little" or "no sense." 

Regarding the descriptions for Amok, some are in the SSM catalog. Does Varys have one? 

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd like it when Varys' looks reflected his ancestry somewhat. I'm just pointing out that he could be another Baelor Breakspear, Jon Snow, Duncan Targaryen, etc.

What's the source of this one? Is it known that Duncan didn't had Valyrian looks?

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1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Wow, usually what I say makes "little" or "no sense." 

Don't take that personal. I like to enter into discussions when there is something to discuss. Just saying 'I agree' or 'Great idea' (or some emoticons expressing that) isn't my thing.

And despite our differences I actually like a lot of the stuff you do. If I didn't like you, I'd not talk to you so often ;-).

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Regarding the descriptions for Amok, some are in the SSM catalog. Does Varys have one? 

In my high-res version of Amok's Varys (which I did not print out to put above my bed) the guy clearly has brown eyes. It is a light brown that is not resembling Varys' purple clothes or the purple background.

And Illyrio's eyes seem to be brownish-yellow to me, for what that's worth.

I think there is some SSM discussing Varys' eye color.

But then - I'm the first to say that George isn't bound by stuff he said at some con (or to some dude in a mail or via AIM). He still can give either Varys or Illyrio (or both) purple eyes. And Illyrio could still have Valyrian hair beneath all that yellow dye, just as Varys' hair could be silver-gold.

And it is not that eye colors cannot change in the books, either, can they ;-)?

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1 hour ago, Megorova said:

What's the source of this one? Is it known that Duncan didn't had Valyrian looks?

Check out his portrait in TWoIaF.

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3 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And despite our differences I actually like a lot of the stuff you do. If I didn't like you, I'd not talk to you so often ;-).

Darn it, LV. Don't ruin this for me! I click on LM versus LV threads with images of Robert and Rhaegar fighting at the Trident in my mind (I won't say who is who).

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13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Don't take that personal. I like to enter into discussions when there is something to discuss. Just saying 'I agree' or 'Great idea' (or some emoticons expressing that) isn't my thing.

And despite our differences I actually like a lot of the stuff you do. If I didn't like you, I'd not talk to you so often ;-).

Ah... :wub:

 

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27 minutes ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Darn it, LV. Don't ruin this for me! I click on LM versus LV threads with images of Robert and Rhaegar fighting at the Trident in my mind (I won't say who is who).

Since you don't tell us who is who this sentence will torture you with the mental image of Illyrio and Varys sex with me as the eunuch and @Lost Melnibonean as the dead sea cow.

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