UK Politics - From Russia with Love

[Werthead]

4 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

quite a bit in the bews about Commons Speaker Bercow being a bully, with a former staffer signing an NDA on being paid off (which he's now broken).

Others have backed the claims, though some claim he isn't.  If you believe his supporters, he's a gentle soul who wouldn't raise hos voice; if you believe his detractors he's basically the Hulk when angry.

He doesn't suffer fools gladly and HIGNFY showed a clip of being being very testy in a BBC interview, but apparently the BBC interviewer had overrun the allotted time for the interview, so maybe that was justified.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Final local council election results: Labour up 77, Conservatives down 33, Liberal Democrats up 75, Green up 8, UKIP down 123 and others down 4.

Media already discussing how this is a massive failure for Labour and good news for the Tories, somehow (although council elections are generally a poor barometer of overall national performance).

If the positions were reversed, and a Conservative Opposition had made very modest gains against a Labour government that had been eight years in office, then it would be the Conservatives who would be getting it in the neck.

[SeanF]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

We're the fifth-biggest economy in the world by GDP (only ninth by PPP, however) mainly (but not totally) because of our position in the European Union: the British economy is driven by banking and services and our banking and services are dependent on free and unhindered access to the European market. Once that access disappears, companies from outside the EU have no logical reason to use the UK as a bridge to the EU. They're instead much better directly relocating offices to Frankfurt, Brussels or, if they prefer an English-speaking location, Dublin rather than endure the additional red tape on top of already-insane costs for keeping a foot in London.

If we saw other British industries stepping up to take over from this sector to maintain British prosperity post-Brexit that would be one thing. But we're not. Britain will be permanently poorer country after Brexit unless there is some kind of general collapse of the EU as a whole (putting everyone back on equal footing), or some hitherto unforeseen revolution takes place and Britain becomes a manufacturing powerhouse once again. Instead, the government's sole economic plan for a post-Brexit Britain is for us to become a convenient tax haven located just off the EU's coast, with not encouraging ramifications for jobs.

This is an illogical argument. Cameron backed Remain very strongly and staked his reputation on Remain winning. When it didn't, he quit. It was the moral responsibility of the official Leave campaign, Vote Leave, to come up with a plan and they didn't.

We were. It was described as hysteria and fear-mongering, and ignored by most Brexit-voters, as was the status of Gibraltar, the status of expats in the EU and EU citizens here and the dependence on enormous sectors of the British economy on immigrant workers who get those jobs because British people pointblank refuse to do them (and this will not change after Brexit).

About a quarter of British expats somehow voted for Brexit, despite it potentially having an impact on their pensions, working rights and accommodation rights. That's rather more than "one or two idiots".

It's the problem with crying wolf.  People stop believing you, even when you do have good points to make.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

On 4.5.2018 at 7:03 PM, Hereward said:

I’m reliably informed it sounds like the Horst Wessel Lied.

That's actually breaking news, I always assumed it was Rule Brittania.

Immoral beacon leading us astray.

 

7 hours ago, Werthead said:

About a quarter of British expats somehow voted for Brexit, despite it potentially having an impact on their pensions, working rights and accommodation rights. That's rather more than "one or two idiots".

Not to mention the famer's who are now starting to worry about their exports, and cheap labour for their fields.

 

18 hours ago, mankytoes said:

Wasn't that your (as in, Remainers) job? Shouldn't you all have been talking about the Irish border question? 

It was brought up, but leaver's dismissed it as part of project fear (among other predictions fro the reamin camp). Well, turns out project fear has some resemblence to project reality now. But if you are happy, then all the remainers are happy, too - at least that's how democracy seems to work for you. Bear in mind, that Farage has said his campaign to get Britain out of the EU would have continued had he lost. Something leavers happily ignore when they call out for remain voters to get aboard the Titanic to boldly explore new markets in regions no British PM in ages has given a damn about. But I guess Boris can recite colonial poetry to his hearts content there.

[Werthead]

4 hours ago, SeanF said:

It's the problem with crying wolf.  People stop believing you, even when you do have good points to make.

Who's crying wolf? All of these remain unresolved problems (although the quid pro quo over expats in both territories is *likely* to be done, a lot of the fine detail has not been worked out). Just this week Spain has been leveraging the situation as part of their argument with Gibraltar over the status of the local airport, and last week there were urgent representations from the NHS and some Tory MPs to Theresa May over doctors whose visas have been denied when they are urgently needed, and when Brexit takes place the same rules will apply to doctors and nurses from the EU as well.

[HexMachina]

12 hours ago, Werthead said:

We're the fifth-biggest economy in the world by GDP 

Sixth now, actually

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/04/california-economy-uk-fifth-largest?CMP=fb_gu

(unimportant pedantry I know, but I stumbled across the article just after I read your post)

[mankytoes]

12 hours ago, Notone said:

That's actually breaking news, I always assumed it was Rule Brittania.

Immoral beacon leading us astray.

 

Not to mention the famer's who are now starting to worry about their exports, and cheap labour for their fields.

 

It was brought up, but leaver's dismissed it as part of project fear (among other predictions fro the reamin camp). Well, turns out project fear has some resemblence to project reality now. But if you are happy, then all the remainers are happy, too - at least that's how democracy seems to work for you. Bear in mind, that Farage has said his campaign to get Britain out of the EU would have continued had he lost. Something leavers happily ignore when they call out for remain voters to get aboard the Titanic to boldly explore new markets in regions no British PM in ages has given a damn about. But I guess Boris can recite colonial poetry to his hearts content there.

I don’t think being the Remain equivalent of Nigel Farage is anything to be proud of, personally. I don’t associate with Farage, I’ve never voted for him or his party.

[mormont]

On 5/5/2018 at 9:31 AM, mankytoes said:

So out the Big Four offices we've got one person who actually supported Brexit, who literally everyone acknowledges did so for opportunistic, rather than ideological, reasons. Remainers are still running the country. 

I don't know if you know this, but there are no Remainers in the Cabinet.

There are some former Remainers. But if you know of a single Cabinet minister who is now doing anything to keep us in the EU and avoid Brexit, please name them.

I'd add that May is every bit as much an opportunist as Johnson: she just played her hand more cautiously, and better. Her low profile during the referendum campaign was pure opportunism, and it worked. She had, and certainly now has, zero ideological attachment to remaining in the EU: just this morning she was making the rounds insisting again that she will deliver Brexit.

So, no, Remainers aren't running anything. And people who campaigned for Brexit are running the Foreign Office, a department specifically created to deliver Brexit, and the department most concerned with Brexit (international trade), as well as holding other Cabinet posts. Leave campaigners are literally in charge of delivering Brexit and got those appointments because they campaigned for Leave.

So yes. It might have been nice if they had a plan. Or if they had one now.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

I have a theory,  the Cylon's had the Brexit Plan, (unfortunatly not much good to them).  so maybe the Brexiter's have the Plan the Cylon's wanted / needed.

[SeanF]

16 hours ago, Werthead said:

Who's crying wolf? All of these remain unresolved problems (although the quid pro quo over expats in both territories is *likely* to be done, a lot of the fine detail has not been worked out). Just this week Spain has been leveraging the situation as part of their argument with Gibraltar over the status of the local airport, and last week there were urgent representations from the NHS and some Tory MPs to Theresa May over doctors whose visas have been denied when they are urgently needed, and when Brexit takes place the same rules will apply to doctors and nurses from the EU as well.

Some pretty lurid predictions were made prior to the referendum vote about what would happen in the event that the UK voted Leave.  

[The Marquis de Leech]

22 hours ago, Werthead said:

Final local council election results: Labour up 77, Conservatives down 33, Liberal Democrats up 75, Green up 8, UKIP down 123 and others down 4.

Media already discussing how this is a massive failure for Labour and good news for the Tories, somehow (although council elections are generally a poor barometer of overall national performance).

Of course the media are doing this. They'd puffed up Labour Expectations sky-high, and Labour (stupidly) went along with it. In reality, while it's disappointing for Corbyn, it's not a disaster:

(1) Polls basically show a 40-40 split, and have done since the election. The situation is highly polarised.

(2) It caught him in the aftermath of the anti-semitic furore.

(3) Things are in a holding pattern until April 2019 anyway, with all the potential downstream consequences of that.

[Shryke]

4 hours ago, mormont said:

I don't know if you know this, but there are no Remainers in the Cabinet.

There are some former Remainers. But if you know of a single Cabinet minister who is now doing anything to keep us in the EU and avoid Brexit, please name them.

I'd add that May is every bit as much an opportunist as Johnson: she just played her hand more cautiously, and better. Her low profile during the referendum campaign was pure opportunism, and it worked. She had, and certainly now has, zero ideological attachment to remaining in the EU: just this morning she was making the rounds insisting again that she will deliver Brexit.

So, no, Remainers aren't running anything. And people who campaigned for Brexit are running the Foreign Office, a department specifically created to deliver Brexit, and the department most concerned with Brexit (international trade), as well as holding other Cabinet posts. Leave campaigners are literally in charge of delivering Brexit and got those appointments because they campaigned for Leave.

So yes. It might have been nice if they had a plan. Or if they had one now.

The problem remains that they are caught between reality and the desires of the Brexiters. May is stuck in a holding pattern where she tries to negotiate with the EU but anytime she actually acknowledges reality she gets savaged by the tabloids and has to back down, publicly at least.

They have no plan because there is no possible plan that is compatible with both reality and the desires of Leavers.

So instead the UK is playing a seemingly endless game of chicken with a brick wall. Going full steam ahead right at the immovable object, loudly insisting it doesn't exist. But eventually you will close the gap.

[Shryke]

5 hours ago, mankytoes said:

I don’t think being the Remain equivalent of Nigel Farage is anything to be proud of, personally. I don’t associate with Farage, I’ve never voted for him or his party.

And yet you support his entire agenda here.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

10 hours ago, mankytoes said:

I don’t think being the Remain equivalent of Nigel Farage is anything to be proud of, personally. I don’t associate with Farage, I’ve never voted for him or his party.

Missing the point. Yet, you are in agreement with Farage. You are taking the Farage position, "The British people had a vote let's move on". Nothing to see here. That's the part of the so called "left leavers" that really galls me. They alligned themselves with Farage (and Johnson and Fox and Gove), but don't want to own him. At best those useful idiots (to coin a phrase) were and are complicit to whatever Brexit the Tories will shove down their throats. Special mentions as always has to go to Kate Hoey and her romantic boat trip with Farage during the campaign.

[Werthead]

8 hours ago, SeanF said:

Some pretty lurid predictions were made prior to the referendum vote about what would happen in the event that the UK voted Leave.  

Indeed, including that we would have massive problems with the Northern Irish border (we are), Europe isn't rolling over to our every demand (they're not) and we were going to lose a lot of business overseas (we are).

The other predictions are moot because we haven't left yet.

 

Quote

 

The problem remains that they are caught between reality and the desires of the Brexiters. May is stuck in a holding pattern where she tries to negotiate with the EU but anytime she actually acknowledges reality she gets savaged by the tabloids and has to back down, publicly at least.

They have no plan because there is no possible plan that is compatible with both reality and the desires of Leavers.

 

The other side of the coin is that the soft Brexiteer wing is also quite vocal and powerful, and they've been emboldened by multiple victories in the Lords, so they're also encouraging May to go in a different direction whilst the hard Brexiteers are rock solid in crashing out with no deal if they can't get some fanciful "have your cake and eat it" arrangement (hint: they can't).

It's possible that something is going to snap and we could see the government collapse over it, although the chances of that have receded as the probability of the soft Brexiteer Tories joining with the Lib Dems and Labour in supporting a more moderate approach which could outweigh the hard Brexiteer Tories, DUP and Labourites (there are a few). But it's a close thing at the moment. 

The weirdest thing is the number of Brexiteers saying they'd rather we stay in the EU than adopt some of the "soft Brexiteer" positions, which just goes to show how difficult the situation is to parse.

[mankytoes]

2 hours ago, Notone said:

Missing the point. Yet, you are in agreement with Farage. You are taking the Farage position, "The British people had a vote let's move on". Nothing to see here. That's the part of the so called "left leavers" that really galls me. They alligned themselves with Farage (and Johnson and Fox and Gove), but don't want to own him. At best those useful idiots (to coin a phrase) were and are complicit to whatever Brexit the Tories will shove down their throats. Special mentions as always has to go to Kate Hoey and her romantic boat trip with Farage during the campaign.

Unless you accept you aligned yourself with Cameron, Osborne and May, and you accept shared responsibility with them for their actions, don’t ask us to do the same.

Why would I “own” Farage? I’ve never liked him, never voted for his party, consistently criticised him, always disagreed with him on most issues. 

This isn’t aimed at you, or anyone in particular, but there are people on the left who treat it as a collective mindset, where everyone is supposed to conform on every issue, and you get a lot of shit if you ever go “off the reservation”. It’s stifling to free thought and I have no interest in it. Even the idea of “the left” is of very limited use to me, it leads to exactly the kind of black/white us/them thinking we should be avoiding. 

I’d ask anyone, is there a single issue where you dissent from most of “your people”? If not, is that just a coincidence? Are you really thinking freely?

Surely Tory voters are the ones who have to take responsibility for what a Tory government does?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

13 minutes ago, mankytoes said:

Unless you accept you aligned yourself with Cameron, Osborne and May, and you accept shared responsibility with them for their actions, don’t ask us to do the same.

If I had to choose between Mr Piggy, Osborne and May on the one hand and Farage, Johnson, Gove and Fox on the other. I'd rather have the former to keep me company.

16 minutes ago, mankytoes said:

Why would I “own” Farage? I’ve never liked him, never voted for his party, consistently criticised him, always disagreed with him on most issues. 

Most issues? His entire political gig was EU bad, Britain leave. That a lot of racists flogged to that course should've been a warning. Most serious economists and political scientists said it was a bad idea, but "one of your team" (not sure whether it was Gove or Fox) claimed people had enough of those so called experts and their professional opinions (or expertise if you will). Brexit was UKIP's entire point of existence. The company you keep.

19 minutes ago, mankytoes said:

This isn’t aimed at you, or anyone in particular, but there are people on the left who treat it as a collective mindset, where everyone is supposed to conform on every issue, and you get a lot of shit if you ever go “off the reservation”. It’s stifling to free thought and I have no interest in it. Even the idea of “the left” is of very limited use to me, it leads to exactly the kind of black/white us/them thinking we should be avoiding. 

No of course, you can have your own opinion. And of course you are free to agree with whomever you like. Hell, even Piers Morgan has a point when he talks about US gun laws (broken clock being right once a day). However Brexit wasn't really a left-wing movement (at least that's not where the bulk of support came from). If a lot of right to far right figures want something, that should always be viewed as warning. The deluded (there's really no other way to call it) left wingers that went out to support that right wing wet dream were really just useful idiots to them. They helped UKIP reach their goal, to celebrate their inevitable demise now is a bit like aiding the KKK to kill all folks of colour in order to disolve it. It's bonkers. What else have they achieved, right, Johnson, Gove and Fox now occupy key positions in the cabinet. Well, done. Congratulations.  Oh, you also helped create this huge issue on the Irish border, also congratulations. And it's just a matter of time before the real impact hits the British economy. If the Tories then go for a hard Brexit and that Singapore upon Thamse model, then that's also on you. Why? Because you'Ve helped to let this genie out of the bottle.

 

[mankytoes]

47 minutes ago, Notone said:

If I had to choose between Mr Piggy, Osborne and May on the one hand and Farage, Johnson, Gove and Fox on the other. I'd rather have the former to keep me company.

Most issues? His entire political gig was EU bad, Britain leave. That a lot of racists flogged to that course should've been a warning. Most serious economists and political scientists said it was a bad idea, but "one of your team" (not sure whether it was Gove or Fox) claimed people had enough of those so called experts and their professional opinions (or expertise if you will). Brexit was UKIP's entire point of existence. The company you keep.

No of course, you can have your own opinion. And of course you are free to agree with whomever you like. Hell, even Piers Morgan has a point when he talks about US gun laws (broken clock being right once a day). However Brexit wasn't really a left-wing movement (at least that's not where the bulk of support came from). If a lot of right to far right figures want something, that should always be viewed as warning. The deluded (there's really no other way to call it) left wingers that went out to support that right wing wet dream were really just useful idiots to them. They helped UKIP reach their goal, to celebrate their inevitable demise now is a bit like aiding the KKK to kill all folks of colour in order to disolve it. It's bonkers. What else have they achieved, right, Johnson, Gove and Fox now occupy key positions in the cabinet. Well, done. Congratulations.  Oh, you also helped create this huge issue on the Irish border, also congratulations. And it's just a matter of time before the real impact hits the British economy. If the Tories then go for a hard Brexit and that Singapore upon Thamse model, then that's also on you. Why? Because you'Ve helped to let this genie out of the bottle.

That’s exactly the attitude I’m referring to. Don’t actually read about the issues and make up your own mind, just mindlessly follow those you agree with on other issues. Don’t educate yourself, that makes you dangerous. It’s funny you keep calling those who are actually putting in thought “useful idiots”.

What a thing to write on a public forum. Shameful.

Is it? Care to give a time frame? Because I seem to remember your team leader, the PM, predicting an immediate recession when we voted leave. And the chancellor saying there would be a punishment budget. Deplorable, fear mongering lies.

My prediction was that when the economy does next have a downturn, which it inevitably will at some point, Brexit will be blamed. And that is one I would put my house on, if I wasn’t part of a demographic who don’t own houses.

Just clarify one thing for me- if you had studied an issue, and made a conclusion based on that information, but then found out the far right have the same view, you would change your position? Because that’s what you’re saying I should do.

[Werthead]

Quote

 

Is it? Care to give a time frame? Because I seem to remember your team leader, the PM, predicting an immediate recession when we voted leave. And the chancellor saying there would be a punishment budget. Deplorable, fear mongering lies.

 

One of Cameron's ideas was that if Brexit won, it might be necessary to trigger Article 50 instantly, which would have triggered a much greater negative economic shock than we received. This is what all of the serious economic forecasts were based on. Instead, he bailed on the decision and Theresa May declined to trigger Article 50, instead waiting. This lessened the impact to merely the pound plunging in relative value which was still a pretty major thing.

The real barometer comes when we leave (which is what the saner economic models were based on) and this will be dependent on the type of deal we get, which we'll know in five months.

Osborne, I believe, did suggest that an emergency budget might be necessary and a major recession could strike immediately (although he has caveated that since saying it was in the event of Article 50 being triggered immediately etc), but George Osborne is an economic amateur with the financial nous of a dead stoat, probably the worst Chancellor in living memory, so no-one was paying much attention to him.

[Shryke]

4 hours ago, mankytoes said:

That’s exactly the attitude I’m referring to. Don’t actually read about the issues and make up your own mind, just mindlessly follow those you agree with on other issues. Don’t educate yourself, that makes you dangerous. It’s funny you keep calling those who are actually putting in thought “useful idiots”.

What a thing to write on a public forum. Shameful.

Is it? Care to give a time frame? Because I seem to remember your team leader, the PM, predicting an immediate recession when we voted leave. And the chancellor saying there would be a punishment budget. Deplorable, fear mongering lies.

My prediction was that when the economy does next have a downturn, which it inevitably will at some point, Brexit will be blamed. And that is one I would put my house on, if I wasn’t part of a demographic who don’t own houses.

Just clarify one thing for me- if you had studied an issue, and made a conclusion based on that information, but then found out the far right have the same view, you would change your position? Because that’s what you’re saying I should do.

Actually he's pointing out that you are siding with a bunch of racist anti-intellectualists on an issue primarily motivated by racism and anti-intellectualism that all the experts are saying is terrible.

Like, you are either not paying any attention to the analyses on the results of Brexit or you just don't believe them. Which fits in perfect with the whole "we're tired of experts" view of the standard Brexit crowd.