UK Politics - From Russia with Love

[Yukle]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

One of Cameron's ideas was that if Brexit won, it might be necessary to trigger Article 50 instantly, which would have triggered a much greater negative economic shock than we received. This is what all of the serious economic forecasts were based on. Instead, he bailed on the decision and Theresa May declined to trigger Article 50, instead waiting. This lessened the impact to merely the pound plunging in relative value which was still a pretty major thing.

That said, Article 50 it now invoked? They bought themselves a few months, but the clock is ticking. There were also the challenges to whether the negotiation could happen without a parliamentary vote. Which has now happened.

Looking in at the moment it feels like the EU are holding more cards at this stage, too. I agree that the pound's drop is, on its own, significant, even if it's not the doomsday that was predicted. I think that economic factors are partly self-fulfilling, in the sense that it's believed Brexit is a bad economic idea, therefore it does indeed become one. Because economists want stability over uncertainty.

[mankytoes]

5 hours ago, Shryke said:

Actually he's pointing out that you are siding with a bunch of racist anti-intellectualists on an issue primarily motivated by racism and anti-intellectualism that all the experts are saying is terrible.

Like, you are either not paying any attention to the analyses on the results of Brexit or you just don't believe them. Which fits in perfect with the whole "we're tired of experts" view of the standard Brexit crowd.

This is depressing, again you seem annoyed that I thought for myself. Your analysis is so simplistic- do you know that Brexit had a lot of support amongst South Asians? I guess you see them all as “useful idiots” too. 

I always listen to experts, but not just self appointed ones. A lot of these people supported joining the Euro for the same reasons. A lot of them have their own interests. Everyone has an agenda, even experts. 

I’d think it was quite a waste of time getting a degree in politics, only to mindlessly follow the crowd on these issues. 

[mankytoes]

5 hours ago, Yukle said:

That said, Article 50 it now invoked? They bought themselves a few months, but the clock is ticking. There were also the challenges to whether the negotiation could happen without a parliamentary vote. Which has now happened.

Looking in at the moment it feels like the EU are holding more cards at this stage, too. I agree that the pound's drop is, on its own, significant, even if it's not the doomsday that was predicted. I think that economic factors are partly self-fulfilling, in the sense that it's believed Brexit is a bad economic idea, therefore it does indeed become one. Because economists want stability over uncertainty.

I agree about economists, but that would apply to any radical change, it leads to a very (small c) conservative attitude. Economists aren’t political scientists, they’re only approaching this from one angle.

Brexit was always a long term thing. 

[Werthead]

3 hours ago, mankytoes said:

Brexit was always a long term thing. 

Given the extreme damage Brexit is capable of doing to the British economy, and the damage it has already done to Britain's reputation in the world and the divisions it has introduced into society, the question is whether Brexit should have been pursued at a point when the UK is not doing very well in most other arenas, or perhaps put on ice until a point when Britain's economy could better absorb the shock to the system.

Back in 2002, when there was a lot of pressure for Britain to join the Euro and Britain's economy was doing outstandingly, the argument for Brexit at that point was far more persuasive.

[Shryke]

6 hours ago, mankytoes said:

This is depressing, again you seem annoyed that I thought for myself. Your analysis is so simplistic- do you know that Brexit had a lot of support amongst South Asians? I guess you see them all as “useful idiots” too. 

I always listen to experts, but not just self appointed ones. A lot of these people supported joining the Euro for the same reasons. A lot of them have their own interests. Everyone has an agenda, even experts. 

I’d think it was quite a waste of time getting a degree in politics, only to mindlessly follow the crowd on these issues. 

What experts are you listening to saying Brexit is a good idea exactly?

You are saying a lot of words here but it's all blather that has nothing to do with anything I said. The issue isn't you "thought for yourself". It's that your position has no basis in fact or analysis. I have no idea where the rest of this silliness you are on about in this post is coming from.

It's a waste to have a brain and then think that using the skills and knowledge of others is "mindlessly following the crowd".

[Maltaran]

6 hours ago, mankytoes said:

This is depressing, again you seem annoyed that I thought for myself. Your analysis is so simplistic- do you know that Brexit had a lot of support amongst South Asians? 

There was a bit of xenophobia there, Brexiters were saying that if we stop the EU migration then they can make it easier for Indians and Pakistanis to immigrate.

[A wilding]

18 hours ago, mankytoes said:

That’s exactly the attitude I’m referring to. Don’t actually read about the issues and make up your own mind, just mindlessly follow those you agree with on other issues. Don’t educate yourself, that makes you dangerous. It’s funny you keep calling those who are actually putting in thought “useful idiots”.

What a thing to write on a public forum. Shameful.

Is it? Care to give a time frame? Because I seem to remember your team leader, the PM, predicting an immediate recession when we voted leave. And the chancellor saying there would be a punishment budget. Deplorable, fear mongering lies.

My prediction was that when the economy does next have a downturn, which it inevitably will at some point, Brexit will be blamed. And that is one I would put my house on, if I wasn’t part of a demographic who don’t own houses.

Just clarify one thing for me- if you had studied an issue, and made a conclusion based on that information, but then found out the far right have the same view, you would change your position? Because that’s what you’re saying I should do.

 

I had to rise to this, because from here it really does feel like projection.

Do you really think that remainers are remainers because they mindlessly followed Cameron? Don't you realise that many of them would entirely agree with Notone that his main virtue was not being quite as bad as Johnson, Gove and Fox? That most of them would consider Osborne a contemptible idiot for panicking with his stupid punishment budget threat when he finally realised how little political credibility he had?

Or don't you know that the hard left, with, as you said, its deplorable collective mindset where everyone is expected to conform, was predominantly in favour of Brexit, apparently on the grounds that the EU rules stood in the way of them creating their socialist utopia? Useful idiots indeed.

I also think that it is hard not to believe that the right wing tabloid media, with its years of stories falsely blaming everything under the sun on the EU, didn't have its effect.

Speaking personally, I don't need to look very far to educate myself about Brexit, indeed I need only look around my own acquaintance. To the friend employed by an EU company who is taking early retirement as an alternative to redundancy or moving to the continent. To the EU friends who have contributed significantly to the UK who have sold up and moved back and whose skills will be very difficult to replace. To the academic whose funding is going to be lost. To the small farmer who was already struggling and who thinks that without EU subsidies they are going to have to throw in the towel. To the small businessman who fears that no longer being able to easily export to the EU will put him out of business.

Of course our recent right wing UK governments have slashed the welfare state and ensured that most wealth has ended up in the hands of the 1%, and the "technocratic" elements of the EU are to some extent in sympathy with this. But redirecting the wealth back towards the welfare state and the less well off does still require wealth to be generated. I would love to be able to believe that Brexit won't screw that up (even if it doesn't result in the Singapore on Thames model), but I can't manage to close my eyes sufficiently.

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

18 hours ago, mankytoes said:

That’s exactly the attitude I’m referring to. Don’t actually read about the issues and make up your own mind, just mindlessly follow those you agree with on other issues. Don’t educate yourself, that makes you dangerous. It’s funny you keep calling those who are actually putting in thought “useful idiots”.

Putting in thought, do as you please. Are your thoughts as well founded as people who make a living out of it, likesay university professors and other researchers? Probably not. So why should they be given equal weight in a discussion. Sorry to burst your  seemingly inflated sense of your research.

9 hours ago, mankytoes said:

I always listen to experts, but not just self appointed ones. A lot of these people supported joining the Euro for the same reasons. A lot of them have their own interests. Everyone has an agenda, even experts. 

Oh the irony.

Part of me is tempted to ask to reveal your sources and the experts that shared your view. But part of me is afraid of the rabbit hole that would lead me.

 

[mankytoes]

5 hours ago, Werthead said:

Given the extreme damage Brexit is capable of doing to the British economy, and the damage it has already done to Britain's reputation in the world and the divisions it has introduced into society, the question is whether Brexit should have been pursued at a point when the UK is not doing very well in most other arenas, or perhaps put on ice until a point when Britain's economy could better absorb the shock to the system.

Back in 2002, when there was a lot of pressure for Britain to join the Euro and Britain's economy was doing outstandingly, the argument for Brexit at that point was far more persuasive.

Fair point. Of course, we should really have had a referendum when Maastricht was signed, avoiding the need for this process altogether. Major constitutional changes should require public approval. That Tory government could have saved us no end of hassle.

3 hours ago, Maltaran said:

There was a bit of xenophobia there, Brexiters were saying that if we stop the EU migration then they can make it easier for Indians and Pakistanis to immigrate.

Well, the main message was that they should all be treated equally. When you have to go through a long, expensive and stressful process, it’s a little falling to see people from Eastern Europe just walking in with full rights. 

If you accept that we have to have some limit on immigration, allowing unlimited EU immigration is only going to make it harder for Asians. 

[Werthead]

Britain's first private police force is setting up nationwide. This is interesting. Drain the police force of numbers, reduce their ability to deal with crime, see crime rise, set up private corporations to deal with it. Simples.

Meanwhile, G4S has been told it can keep running a detention centre despite hideous amounts of serious abuse taking place under their watch.

Quote

If you accept that we have to have some limit on immigration, allowing unlimited EU immigration is only going to make it harder for Asians

The Home Office has been rejecting urgently-needed job applications from doctors from India and Pakistan already.

[mankytoes]

 

33 minutes ago, Notone said:

Putting in thought, do as you please. Are your thoughts as well founded as people who make a living out of it, likesay university professors and other researchers? Probably not. So why should they be given equal weight in a discussion. Sorry to burst your  seemingly inflated sense of your research.

Oh the irony.

Part of me is tempted to ask to reveal your sources and the experts that shared your view. But part of me is afraid of the rabbit hole that would lead me.

 

I don’t know if it’s intentional, but you don’t appear to understand my point at all. Try reading back, and see if I’m claiming to be an expert, or saying you should listen to me. I’m saying think for yourself. If you conclude remain, that’s fine, but do so because of what you’ve understood. 

As someone who has studied Politics, you know the biggest myth? That these issues are too complex for intelligent people to understand, and you have to follow us “experts”. We dress things up in unnecessary jargon. I’m not saying anyone can follow this stuff, but an educated person who can think critically can. Was the EU formed on an existing demos? How do these organisations fare historically? Has the EU reached the form aimed for at its’ founding? Have the flaws that caused the Euros collapse been solved?

These aren’t questions you need me, or anyone else, to answer for you. 

[SeanF]

On 06/05/2018 at 9:13 PM, Werthead said:

Indeed, including that we would have massive problems with the Northern Irish border (we are), Europe isn't rolling over to our every demand (they're not) and we were going to lose a lot of business overseas (we are).

The other predictions are moot because we haven't left yet.

 

 

We were variously promised a "Punishment Budget" , an 18% fall in house prices, and an upsurge in support for Scottish independence in the event of a Leave vote.  In the event, the budget deficit has fallen since the vote, house prices have remained static, and the SNP lost 21 seats in 2017.

[SeanF]

On 06/05/2018 at 7:05 PM, Notone said:

Missing the point. Yet, you are in agreement with Farage. You are taking the Farage position, "The British people had a vote let's move on". Nothing to see here. That's the part of the so called "left leavers" that really galls me. They alligned themselves with Farage (and Johnson and Fox and Gove), but don't want to own him. At best those useful idiots (to coin a phrase) were and are complicit to whatever Brexit the Tories will shove down their throats. Special mentions as always has to go to Kate Hoey and her romantic boat trip with Farage during the campaign.

  On the issue of Leave/Remain, I agreed with Nigel Farage and George Galloway, both of them pretty unsavoury people.  I also agreed with Frank Field, Nigel Evans, and Gisela Stuart, pretty decent people.  I also disagreed with Alistair Campbell, Gerry Adams, and Tony Blair, none of whom are well-regarded by the public.  What we were voting on was Leave or Remain, not whether we agreed with Nigel Farage, or any other prominent political figure. 

 

[SeanF]

On 06/05/2018 at 11:09 PM, mankytoes said:

That’s exactly the attitude I’m referring to. Don’t actually read about the issues and make up your own mind, just mindlessly follow those you agree with on other issues. Don’t educate yourself, that makes you dangerous. It’s funny you keep calling those who are actually putting in thought “useful idiots”.

What a thing to write on a public forum. Shameful.

Is it? Care to give a time frame? Because I seem to remember your team leader, the PM, predicting an immediate recession when we voted leave. And the chancellor saying there would be a punishment budget. Deplorable, fear mongering lies.

My prediction was that when the economy does next have a downturn, which it inevitably will at some point, Brexit will be blamed. And that is one I would put my house on, if I wasn’t part of a demographic who don’t own houses.

Just clarify one thing for me- if you had studied an issue, and made a conclusion based on that information, but then found out the far right have the same view, you would change your position? Because that’s what you’re saying I should do.

Experts can provide facts and opinions.  They can't determine how one should vote.

[The Marquis de Leech]

On 07/05/2018 at 8:35 AM, mankytoes said:

This isn’t aimed at you, or anyone in particular, but there are people on the left who treat it as a collective mindset, where everyone is supposed to conform on every issue, and you get a lot of shit if you ever go “off the reservation”. It’s stifling to free thought and I have no interest in it. Even the idea of “the left” is of very limited use to me, it leads to exactly the kind of black/white us/them thinking we should be avoiding. 

It's a very strange experience being a pro-Brexit Left-winger. Everyone is either screaming at you, or pretending you don't exist.

[mankytoes]

3 hours ago, SeanF said:

Experts can provide facts and opinions.  They can't determine how one should vote.

Exactly, just because I sometimes reach a different conclusion to an expert that doesn’t mean I’m ignoring them. You never hear these experts say “you have to listen to me and do what I say as I know best” (even if they might be thinking it). 

There’s a good reason not to just totally put your faith in experts- they generally don’t predict major world events, like the global recession or the rise of the populist right.

[The Marquis de Leech]

18 hours ago, A wilding said:

Of course our recent right wing UK governments have slashed the welfare state and ensured that most wealth has ended up in the hands of the 1%, and the "technocratic" elements of the EU are to some extent in sympathy with this.

The difference is that one can actually vote out a British government if it destroys the welfare state. One can't vote out the EU - an organisation neoliberal to its core, and utterly contemptuous of democracy. 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

28 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

The difference is that one can actually vote out a British government if it destroys the welfare state. One can't vote out the EU - an organisation neoliberal to its core, and utterly contemptuous of democracy. 

Don't hold back. Tell us how you really feel about the EU.

[SeanF]

3 hours ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

It's a very strange experience being a pro-Brexit Left-winger. Everyone is either screaming at you, or pretending you don't exist.

And, there are a lot of you.  About one third of Labour supporters voted Leave, and about one third of Conservatives voted Remain.  Since, then there has been a shift among Labour Leavers to the Conservatives, and among Conservative Remainers to Labour, but still about 25% on each side disagree with the majority of their party.

It's an issue that cuts across parties.  Tony Benn and Enoch Powell disagreed about almost everything, but both wished to leave the EU.

[Shryke]

4 hours ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

It's a very strange experience being a pro-Brexit Left-winger. Everyone is either screaming at you, or pretending you don't exist.

Given Corbyn I'm pretty sure no one is pretending you don't exist anyone. They know you are there, they just think you are morons. At least the nativist position makes sense given their values. The left-wing pro-Brexit position is incoherent. It's aligning yourself with UKIP in a bid to do one of the stupidest things ever with basically zero supportable reason for why it will actually improve anything.

 

2 hours ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

The difference is that one can actually vote out a British government if it destroys the welfare state. One can't vote out the EU - an organisation neoliberal to its core, and utterly contemptuous of democracy. 

Can you? Cause so far it don't seem to be working out that way.

I mean, one of the biggest things you see as Brexit rolls on is funding being pulled.