UK Politics - From Russia with Love

[SeanF]

3 hours ago, Alarich II said:

 

And the most ridiculous claim is that freedom of movement for the workers is somehow bad for the workers. Why? Because now those foreigners come to take our jobs. But of course that's not a chauvinistic position, apparently it's now a socialist position. I mean, moving from Leeds to London to take the job of some poor Londoner is okay, but if you move from Dublin or Saloniki to London it's not. Three cheers for this new national definition of socialism.

 

That underlines the difference between middle class left wing voters, and working class left wing voters.  The former like free movement, the latter don't.  People like Harold Wilson and Jim Callaghan tightened immigration controls to keep the latter happy.

[Werthead]

 

Quote

 

But of course that's not a chauvinistic position, apparently it's now a socialist position. I mean, moving from Leeds to London to take the job of some poor Londoner is okay, but if you move from Dublin or Saloniki to London it's not. Three cheers for this new national definition of socialism.

 

Not to mention reciprocation: people from Leeds were free to move to Dublin or Amsterdam or Prague to take up a job there as well, and tens of thousands of British people have done so, but future generations will not be able to do so, at least not without visas and more faffing around.

[mankytoes]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

 

Not to mention reciprocation: people from Leeds were free to move to Dublin or Amsterdam or Prague to take up a job there as well, and tens of thousands of British people have done so, but future generations will not be able to do so, at least not without visas and more faffing around.

Bloody moaning poor people not taking the great opportunities to move to Eastern Europe. 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

1 hour ago, mankytoes said:

Bloody moaning poor people not taking the great opportunities to move to Eastern Europe. 

Since when have Dublin, Amsterdam, and Prague become Eastern Europe? 

[mankytoes]

17 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

Since when have Dublin, Amsterdam, and Prague become Eastern Europe? 

Ummmm...

It's inevitable when you make free movement arrangements with countries that have significantly lower GDPs to yours that the movement will be mainly one way. 

Most working class people can't take advantage of many opportunities abroad because they don't speak foreign languages fluently, like most British people. Plus, people have family and community ties. Immigration has doubtlessly boosted the economy, but that doesn't mean it has been good for everyone, and it has been the lowest paid who have got the shit end of the stick again. 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

7 hours ago, mankytoes said:

Ummmm...

I regard Czechia (and Prague) as Central Europe. 

[mormont]

16 hours ago, SeanF said:

That underlines the difference between middle class left wing voters, and working class left wing voters.  The former like free movement, the latter don't. 

Citation?

Because the evidence I've seen suggests that the majority of working class left wing voters voted for Remain. 

[Shryke]

There's also not a strong case that free movement of labour is actually bad for working class people as far as I've ever seen. There's some arguments that it does but also many that it doesn't.

It always been a potent rhetorical argument with not much support from evidence.

[mankytoes]

1 hour ago, Shryke said:

There's also not a strong case that free movement of labour is actually bad for working class people as far as I've ever seen. There's some arguments that it does but also many that it doesn't.

It always been a potent rhetorical argument with not much support from evidence.

It totally depends on the circumstances. If thousands of people from a much poorer country, willing to work hard for less wages than you earn, arrive in your city, it's obvious that will result in you losing your job or seeing your wages stagnate at best. That's just simple economics. If employers can import cheap labour, they will. Do you really think they care about the effect on the local community? A minority might, but most will simply tally the cost and benefit. They're also seen as easier to exploit, hence comments you always hear about white working class British people being "entitled" and "demanding"- that really means we expect basic respect and fair benefits. 

The refusal of many to even acknowledge this is an issue, let alone want to address it, has been a big reason lower income people have been attracted by the right wing. Of course, the Tories are hardly bothered, most of their money comes from people who make a nice profit off immigrants. 

People find it difficult to separate the ideas of being bigoted against foreigners and seeing detrimental effects of unrestricted immigration. 

8 hours ago, mormont said:

Citation?

Because the evidence I've seen suggests that the majority of working class left wing voters voted for Remain. 

I haven't found much evidence either way- obviously "left wing" is a subjective label. But the working class strongly support Leave- https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

For the reasons I've given above, the class/income stats aren't surprising. 

[Shryke]

Just now, mankytoes said:

It totally depends on the circumstances. If thousands of people from a much poorer country, willing to work hard for less wages than you earn, arrive in your city, it's obvious that will result in you losing your job or seeing your wages stagnate at best. That's just simple economics. If employers can import cheap labour, they will. Do you really think they care about the effect on the local community? A minority might, but most will simply tally the cost and benefit. They're also seen as easier to exploit, hence comments you always hear about white working class British people being "entitled" and "demanding"- that really means we expect basic respect and fair benefits. 

The refusal of many to even acknowledge this is an issue, let alone want to address it, has been a big reason lower income people have been attracted by the right wing. Of course, the Tories are hardly bothered, most of their money comes from people who make a nice profit off immigrants. 

People find it difficult to separate the ideas of being bigoted against foreigners and seeing detrimental effects of unrestricted immigration. 

It's not just simple economics. That's the whole point. It's the reason we have economics as a field of study and not just a bunch of shit we say because it vaguely sounds right. That's the kind of shit you see from right-wingers fighting minimum wage increases or government regulation. "Supply, Demand, Invisible Hand!"

You actually have to show your work and the economic research on immigration's effect on local labour is not near as clear cut or as strong as you are pretending.

[mankytoes]

3 minutes ago, Shryke said:

It's not just simple economics. That's the whole point. It's the reason we have economics as a field of study and not just a bunch of shit we say because it vaguely sounds right. That's the kind of shit you see from right-wingers fighting minimum wage increases or government regulation. "Supply, Demand, Invisible Hand!"

You actually have to show your work and the economic research on immigration's effect on local labour is not near as clear cut or as strong as you are pretending.

Well are you able to give a counter argument to the one I gave there? Like all subjects, economics can be simple or complex. The effect of importing mass labour on a market only needs a simple explanation. Sure, there is nuance, and I don't think I'm saying anything too terrible here, these workers have been good for the overall economy. Especially the short term once, they provide labour while not going through education, not taking a pension or using many health services (because they aren't old). 

The argument I gave there supports a minimum wage, because employers will inevitably tend towards paying the minimum they can. You can maybe get away with letting the market value labour when you have full employment, but that's an absolute pipe dream in modern Western economies, and it's only going to head in the other direction. 

Your argument is really the "right wing" (in an economic sense) one here, you're calling for opening up markets to foreign labour. The restrictions I'm proposing are moderately protectionist. 

This really goes to the heart of what left wing Eurosceptics have been trying (apparently unsuccessfully) for decades to hammer home- this European project is inherently based on right wing economic principles. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

19 hours ago, mankytoes said:

Most working class people can't take advantage of many opportunities abroad because they don't speak foreign languages fluently, like most British people. Plus, people have family and community ties. Immigration has doubtlessly boosted the economy, but that doesn't mean it has been good for everyone, and it has been the lowest paid who have got the shit end of the stick again.  

So much to unpack there. So immigrants to England have no family or community ties in their old home?

So it's the immigrants fault that English workers are too [fill in adjective of your choice] to learn a foreign language?

There are some more things I'd like to ask, but I will restrain myself a bit on that account.

[mormont]

1 hour ago, mankytoes said:

It totally depends on the circumstances. If thousands of people from a much poorer country, willing to work hard for less wages than you earn, arrive in your city, it's obvious that will result in you losing your job or seeing your wages stagnate at best. That's just simple economics. If employers can import cheap labour, they will. Do you really think they care about the effect on the local community? A minority might, but most will simply tally the cost and benefit. They're also seen as easier to exploit, hence comments you always hear about white working class British people being "entitled" and "demanding"- that really means we expect basic respect and fair benefits. 

OK. So, even if this is true - it's just the 'chauvinistic' argument I referred to earlier. Your argument (unproven) suggests free movement is bad for working class people in that country. That is not the same as saying it's bad for working class people in general.

1 hour ago, mankytoes said:

The refusal of many to even acknowledge this is an issue, let alone want to address it, has been a big reason lower income people have been attracted by the right wing.

Citation, citation, citation.

Who 'refuses' to acknowledge or address this issue? When, how, where did they do this? What evidence is there for the latter assertion? Because to be quite blunt, this is just rote regurgitation of cliches. And it has a strong whiff of patronising the working classes, to be frank.

1 hour ago, mankytoes said:

I haven't found much evidence either way- obviously "left wing" is a subjective label. But the working class strongly support Leave- https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

Where are you getting that from? Those figures suggest that the 'working class' under 34 supported Remain: only older working class voters 'strongly supported' Leave.

The picture is more nuanced: see, for example, http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/10/31/brexit-was-not-the-voice-of-the-working-class-nor-of-the-uneducated-it-was-of-the-squeezed-middle/

[A wilding]

Out of interest, can anyone quote any examples of industries or skill sets where UK workers were driven out or disadvantaged by EU migrants willing to work for less? The only candidate I can think of offhand is fruit picking, but the general opinion on that seems to be that UK people are simply no longer willing to do that for any money.

 

[SeanF]

11 hours ago, mormont said:

Citation?

Because the evidence I've seen suggests that the majority of working class left wing voters voted for Remain. 

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Hard-but-not-too-hard.-Much-more-on-what-voters-want-from-Brexit.pdf

My comment was specifically about free movement, and there is this article by Prof. John Curtice.  At table 9, which sets out a number of "hard Brexit " positions, Nat Can found that 57% of Labour Party voters wanted to treat EU migrants the same as non-EU migrants, and 45% of them wanted to end welfare payments to EU migrants.  It doesn't break down Labour voters by social class, but quite consistently in surveys, opposition towards immigration tends to be stronger among working class than among middle class voters.

WRT the EU vote generally, Yougov, Ipsos Mori, and Lord Ashcroft all surveyed very large numbers of people, in order to demographically profile Leave and Remain voters.  Overall, about 60% of Conservatives, and about 36% of Labour voters supported Leave, as did about 63% of voters in groups C2, D, and E.  Given that the latter were 11% more in favour of Brexit than the population as a whole, and that Labour voters were 16% less in favour of Brexit than the population as a whole, I'd estimate that Labour voters from groups C2, D, and E voted about 47% or so in favour of Brexit.  

[Rippounet]

8 minutes ago, A wilding said:

Out of interest, can anyone quote any examples of industries or skill sets where UK workers were driven out or disadvantaged by EU migrants willing to work for less? The only candidate I can think of offhand is fruit picking, but the general opinion on that seems to be that UK people are simply no longer willing to do that for any money.

Funnily enough, there seems to be an interesting paper by the Bank of England about this:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2015/the-impact-of-immigration-on-occupational-wages-evidence-from-britain.pdf?la=en&hash=16F94BC8B55F06967E1F36249E90ECE9B597BA9C

And here's what you asked:

Quote

In the latter cases, the coefficients indicate that a 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of immigrants working in semi/unskilled services -  that is, in care homes, bars, shops, restaurants, cleaning, for example - leads to a 1.88 percent reduction in pay.

 

Now I don't really want to get into the debate... But I have to say this: although immigration hardly seems to lower wages, from my point of view this has never been the issue. The real issue is how wages would evolve in some industries without immigration. And because such a question is speculative in nature, it is pretty much  impossible to answer such a question.
To be clear: while immigration doesn't seem to significantly lower wages, there is no way to know whether it doesn't prevent them from rising in some sectors of the economy. The political impact is also impossible to assess, i.e. how immigration affects the balance of power between employers and employees. For instance, immigrants could very well decrease the power of unions in some sectors.
Lastly, the idea that free movement (of labor and corporations) primarily benefits corporations is rather uncontroversial.

[mankytoes]

I've tried replying to the above, but I just feel you guys are acting with bad faith and are really misrepresenting what I've said. Sorry if that isn't the case, but please try reading what I've written again. 

19 minutes ago, A wilding said:

Out of interest, can anyone quote any examples of industries or skill sets where UK workers were driven out or disadvantaged by EU migrants willing to work for less? The only candidate I can think of offhand is fruit picking, but the general opinion on that seems to be that UK people are simply no longer willing to do that for any money.

 

You'd hope those people aren't even claiming to have the most basic background in economics. Of course a job like fruit picking would be done if the wage was high enough. 

[Sophelia]

26 minutes ago, A wilding said:

Out of interest, can anyone quote any examples of industries or skill sets where UK workers were driven out or disadvantaged by EU migrants willing to work for less? The only candidate I can think of offhand is fruit picking, but the general opinion on that seems to be that UK people are simply no longer willing to do that for any money.

 

My next-door neighbour who is a builder by trade (he does renovations and refits e.g. of pubs and general odd jobs) claims that in London he can't get work in this area any more because it's being done by moonlighting illegal workers, or something like that.  But he actually lives in the North so I'm not sure how much direct experience he has, or if it's word of mouth/rumour.

[A wilding]

9 minutes ago, mankytoes said:

You'd hope those people aren't even claiming to have the most basic background in economics. Of course a job like fruit picking would be done if the wage was high enough. 

Would it though? I don't know if you have ever tried it, but it is hard labour. I don't think I would be willing unless the alternative was something like starvation.

But of course the limiting factor is actually being somewhere near competitive with foreign imports. So if you like I will rephrase "any money" to "any reasonable amount of money".

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just now, A wilding said:

Would it though? I don't know if you have ever tried it, but it is hard labour. I don't think I would be willing unless the alternative was something like starvation.

But of course the limiting factor is actually being somewhere near competitive with foreign imports. So if you like I will rephrase "any money" to "any reasonable amount of money".

 

Even if you blocked imports, if you pay the fruit picker too much, the fruits get too expensive for the average Briton to pay.