UK Politics - From Russia with Love

[Denvek]

When’s it comes to snap elections this year, I think the entire British population is now Brenda from Bristol.

[Werthead]

Last week some Conservative backbenchers urged their local parties to re-adopt them as their candidates sharpish, so clearly they believe a snap election is possible.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

11 hours ago, Werthead said:

The BBC just had Rees-Mogg on basically saying he had lost faith in Theresa May's ability to deliver Brexit, followed by Daniel "the fact people seem to listen to me shows how fucked the Conservative Party really is" Hannan kind of trying not to say the same thing (excellent weasel words going on here) whilst clearly believing it. He also says a snap election is now a necessity. Given the inexplicable weight paid to their opinions, that could be sign that's on the cards, at least among the hard Brexiteer wing of the party. 

 

 

Oddly, Rees-Mogg seems to be singing a different tune today to a few days ago when he said (via The Spectator) it should be avoided. The original story was in the Sunday Times (paywalled) as reported here in the Huffington Post.

 

The appetite for a snap election amongst the rest of the Tory Party is low - if they call one, they know that act by itself would piss so many Tory votes off that they'd suffer at the ballot box - and certainly amongst the British public it is non-existent.

I have been wondering, what are the chances that moderate Tories and centrist Labour MPs revolt (possibly with votes from the LibDems and maybe even the SNP) and elect someone from their ranks as PM. Likesay, Nicky Morgan, who is probably easier to sell to Tory rebells than somebody from Labour.

At some point somebody will have to say enough with that horrorshow.

[Werthead]

6 minutes ago, Notone said:

I have been wondering, what are the chances that moderate Tories and centrist Labour MPs revolt (possibly with votes from the LibDems and maybe even the SNP) and elect someone from their ranks as PM. Likesay, Nicky Morgan, who is probably easier to sell to Tory rebells than somebody from Labour.

At some point somebody will have to say enough with that horrorshow.

What I don't get is why people don't point out that 48% of the voters did not vote for Brexit and a significant number of Brexiteers did not vote for a hard Brexit. So the overwhelming mandate is for a soft Brexit that prioritises the economy over the ideological extremism of a tiny number of people. If people could just accept that and move on, we wouldn't have this problem.

[mankytoes]

Just now, Werthead said:

What I don't get is why people don't point out that 48% of the voters did not vote for Brexit and a significant number of Brexiteers did not vote for a hard Brexit. So the overwhelming mandate is for a soft Brexit that prioritises the economy over the ideological extremism of a tiny number of people. If people could just accept that and move on, we wouldn't have this problem.

I don't think I've heard anything so constantly mentioned since the referendum. 

[maarsen]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

What I don't get is why people don't point out that 48% of the voters did not vote for Brexit and a significant number of Brexiteers did not vote for a hard Brexit. So the overwhelming mandate is for a soft Brexit that prioritises the economy over the ideological extremism of a tiny number of people. If people could just accept that and move on, we wouldn't have this problem.

Unfortunately a soft Brexit is like trying to be just a little bit pregnant. 

[Werthead]

4 hours ago, mankytoes said:

I don't think I've heard anything so constantly mentioned since the referendum. 

Please do not cherry pick one part of a statement. The full statement was:

Quote

 

What I don't get is why people don't point out that 48% of the voters did not vote for Brexit and a significant number of Brexiteers did not vote for a hard Brexit. So the overwhelming mandate is for a soft Brexit that prioritises the economy over the ideological extremism of a tiny number of people.

 

 

Quote

 

Unfortunately a soft Brexit is like trying to be just a little bit pregnant. 

 

Indeed. It is, however, the will of the people which apparently must be respected.

[Hereward]

6 hours ago, Notone said:

I have been wondering, what are the chances that moderate Tories and centrist Labour MPs revolt (possibly with votes from the LibDems and maybe even the SNP) and elect someone from their ranks as PM. Likesay, Nicky Morgan, who is probably easier to sell to Tory rebells than somebody from Labour.

At some point somebody will have to say enough with that horrorshow.

Nil. The House of Commons doesn't elect the Prime Minister. It confirms a Prime Minister chosen by the party. The House of Commons can only depose a Prime Minister, forcing a general election. The only ways this could theoretically work would be 1) for May to be deposed by the Conservative Party, in favour of a still Remainer. But that would take the Conservative MPs to get rid of her, then elect said Remainer as one of the top two candidates, then have the Remainer elected by the membership. So, as I said, impossible. Or 2), they could force a general election and then either set up a new party or come up with a pact to throw their weight behind Remain candidates, regardless of party. That's not impossible, just vanishingly unlikely, even if the Conservatives who brought down their own government weren't deselected by their local parties, which they would be.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Thanks for the clarification of the procedure.

[HexMachina]

I know this is Ireland and not Northern Ireland but the vote to overturn the abortion ban was a resounding yes - 66.4% yes, 33.6% no

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44256152

[Spockydog]

48 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

I know this is Ireland and not Northern Ireland but the vote to overturn the abortion ban was a resounding yes - 66.4% yes, 33.6% no

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44256152

Now that's what you call the will of the people.

[mankytoes]

42 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

I know this is Ireland and not Northern Ireland but the vote to overturn the abortion ban was a resounding yes - 66.4% yes, 33.6% no

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44256152

The rejection of the absolute moral authority of the Catholic Church by the majority of Irish society has done so much good for their society. It's wonderful to see in a country where the last Magdalene asylum only closed in 1996. 

 

[Werthead]

Two vice chairs of Norwich Conservatives, the local constituency party of Electoral Fraud Minister Chloe Smith, have been arrested for electoral fraud. Definitely one of those "you can't make it up" moments.

[williamjm]

14 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

I know this is Ireland and not Northern Ireland but the vote to overturn the abortion ban was a resounding yes - 66.4% yes, 33.6% no

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44256152

I've been visiting Dublin for the last few days, and I think the locals were all quite tense on Friday waiting for the results, for many people this meant more than any election result. It's good to see that it was so decisive with only one constituency voting no,  and I think only over 65s had a majority for no. 

[Deedles]

15 hours ago, williamjm said:

I've been visiting Dublin for the last few days, and I think the locals were all quite tense on Friday waiting for the results, for many people this meant more than any election result. It's good to see that it was so decisive with only one constituency voting no,  and I think only over 65s had a majority for no. 

You are quite right in saying that it meant more than GE results. We have PR-STV here, in multiseat constituencies, so it’s likely that most people who aren’t on the fringes (and some who are) end up with some form of representation. In the last 20years, coalitions are the norm, so it doesn’t feel essential toget a particular result.

 

To a lot of people on both sides of the aisle, this was an essential vote. It was 35 years since the 8th had been put in, and it was generally felt that another referendum couldn’t be held on it for at least 10-15 years.

It wasn’t just provision of abortion either, there was a lot of rights in maternity packed in too. A lot of people shared very personal, harrowing stories and these  helped generate a lot of emotion. Thousands of people who have never been involved in elections before volunteered and contributed. It was astonishing.

 

[Werthead]

It is actually relevant to the UK too: quite a few MPs from all of the major parties now seem to be in agreement that the law needs to be equalised with Northern Ireland. May, of course, has tried to duck the issue but that's not going to fly this time.

Amusing if this ends up being the thing that gets the DUP to agree to a new deal to restart the NI Assembly, so they can avoid this becoming a bigger thing.

[mankytoes]

56 minutes ago, Werthead said:

It is actually relevant to the UK too: quite a few MPs from all of the major parties now seem to be in agreement that the law needs to be equalised with Northern Ireland. May, of course, has tried to duck the issue but that's not going to fly this time.

Amusing if this ends up being the thing that gets the DUP to agree to a new deal to restart the NI Assembly, so they can avoid this becoming a bigger thing.

Isn't it in their interest to not get the Assembly restarted if they want to dodge this, as only an active Assembly could change the law? Keep it shut down for a couple of months at least, when people will have moved on from this? 

Not giving this basic right has been one of the few issues the Catholics and Proddies have been able to agree on, anyway...

[Werthead]

The NY Times has an interesting article on the big-picture, from the outside impact of austerity.

A particularly nice take on the Big Society, that most cynical of Tory experiments:

 

Quote

 

this is akin to setting your house on fire and then reveling in the community spirit as neighbors come running to help extinguish the blaze.

 

 

24 minutes ago, mankytoes said:

Isn't it in their interest to not get the Assembly restarted if they want to dodge this, as only an active Assembly could change the law? Keep it shut down for a couple of months at least, when people will have moved on from this? 

Not giving this basic right has been one of the few issues the Catholics and Proddies have been able to agree on, anyway...

If the Assembly can't take its position, direct rule will have to be reimposed from Westminster. There's been a lot of discussion about when they're going to have to do that, as NI can't carry on without a functioning government, but the DUP has convinced May to keep kicking it into the long grass.

If direct rule is reimposed, there's nothing stopping the UK government from changing the law directly. Makes sense, as you either want to be part of the UK or not, and if you do, then the same laws should apply.

[Hereward]

2 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Makes sense, as you either want to be part of the UK or not, and if you do, then the same laws should apply.

Do you want to let the Scots know?

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Hereward said:

Do you want to let the Scots know?

I don't believe there's a comparable area where people in Scotland have less civil rights than those in the rest of the UK.