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Casablanca Birdie

US Politics: Free Trade, Freer Trade, and Nuclear War

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There's a poll outta Tennessee today showing Phil Bredesen with a 10-point lead on Marsha Blackburn for Bob Corker's open senate seat. I'm skeptical, especially since there were plenty of polls in 2016 showing Democratic re-treads like Evan Bayh and Russ Feingold with big senate leads that did not materialize on election day. (Though one big difference from those is that Blackburn is already well-known and unpopular in Tennessee, so her numbers may be a bit more baked in than Bayh or Feingold's opponents' were.)

But if Bredesen actually took this seat, it'd make the math for Democratic control of the senate so much easier. I'm skeptical, but I want to believe.

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25 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I've been told to always spike the football.  So here's my note that Pruitt is still in office. 

At a boi!

Also, did you keep that in your Multiquote?

And it’s not 11:49 here! I still got 25 minutes!

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17 minutes ago, Fez said:

There's a poll outta Tennessee today showing Phil Bredesen with a 10-point lead on Marsha Blackburn for Bob Corker's open senate seat. I'm skeptical, especially since there were plenty of polls in 2016 showing Democratic re-treads like Evan Bayh and Russ Feingold with big senate leads that did not materialize on election day. (Though one big difference from those is that Blackburn is already well-known and unpopular in Tennessee, so her numbers may be a bit more baked in than Bayh or Feingold's opponents' were.)

I think that Bredesen has a real chance.  He's the underdog, but it's a winnable race.  I think that some prognosticators (like Sabato for example) are being unduly pessimistic.  This is an open seat in a midterm election, that is almost never a slam dunk for the President's party. 

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11 hours ago, Triskele said:

Is this all based on Jonathan Haidt (sp)?  

Yep. Among others. I was pretty skeptical, but as more research and more data continued to pile up in favor of it and multidiscipline fields found more links, it became too big to dismiss. It works well as a framing argument too. 

10 hours ago, dmc515 said:

Wasn't wondering, no (well, other than the "you" thing, thought maybe you were simply expressing that you were disgusted by me, which, yeah, would be understandable).  But I do enjoy how you consistently take this group of physiological studies that find tendencies with little to no external validity and present them as if they came down from the mountaintop.  "Liberals are...Conservatives do..."  It's quaint, and I can only hope one day someone will have such faith in my own research.

I'm not sure what you mean by 'physiological' - did you mean psychological?

As to little to no external validity, well, the reason I take them with such consistency is because they produce such consistent results across the board. They continue to be well-reproduced across a number of psychological and sociological disciplines, and result in predictive experiments that are not associated with it. As an example, the experiment that shows that the more disgusted by things you are, the more likely you are to be conservative - based on smell. Or the new one about how you can make someone less conservative simply by making them fear less. When you have a hypothesis that can be repeatedly tested in different ways and it still holds up, it becomes a pretty strong, scientifically based viewpoint. 

Note that this doesn't track to all cultures or even all western cultures; it tracks to the current viewpoints in the US, and can change. But ignoring it - ignoring that 3 of the basic 6 universal emotions and the universal morals that they form the basis of are not represented well by one party - is going to result in a lot of actual losses for that party simply because only one side has anything to offer.

As to the rally around the flag thing - there's a simple explanation for that now that I have a keyboard, which is that in general when we are attacked fear isn't the primary emotional response - anger is. This is especially true when the country is attacked without provocation - that triggers the 'unfairness' vibe. And liberals have anger as a primary emotion, and conservatives have it as well. The sadness/care-harm reaction explains a lot about how we unite under disasters as well. 

8 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Fascinating, plus that gives affirmation to  what ive long suspected.

See the above link.  

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Just now, Tywin et al. said:

At a boi!

Also, did you keep that in your Multiquote?

And it’s not 11:49 here! I still got 25 minutes!

You said it at 11:49 ET.  And I replied to a different post you made and just pasted that text in, hence that "one hour ago" at the top of your post that was made two days ago. 

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2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

That’s interesting, because everything I learned in school said negative ads were more effective. I’ll have to go print that study out tonight.

That said, Trump certainly showed that going negative can work, and it would appear his 2020 strategy is going to be the same. Hold his 45% and then drag it into the mud.  

Don’t take this the wrong way, but is there any point in getting a graduate degree in political science if you aren’t interested in being a professor? I really don’t recall too many people having graduate degrees other than the people who got masters in political management. Everyone else either had law degrees or masters in public policy, and most just had undergraduate degrees. Personally I’d rather go to law school or get a masters in public policy or journalism, though I am still open to polis ci if there’s a purpose for it.

That said, when picking up some study materials for the LSAT the other week I did grab a prep book for the GRE on a lark.

 

So you want to go to law school do you?  You should PM me. I HAVE VIEWS. 

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40 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

You said it at 11:49 ET.  And I replied to a different post you made and just pasted that text in, hence that "one hour ago" at the top of your post that was made two days ago. 

I dare you to prove it in court!

:P

Also, I had to ask because I’ve got Jace’s McDaniels meltdown in my multiquote and it’s making it really difficult to move quotes from thread to thread.

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17 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

So you want to go to law school do you?  You should PM me. I HAVE VIEWS. 

Lol I did a while back. You gave me good advice.

Your name is missing an “h” though.

:P

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12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Lol I did a while back. You gave me good advice.

Your name is missing an “h” though.

:P

LOL.  Ok.  Good.  And my name is spelled properly without extraneous letters.  Zabzieh is a totally different name.  

I spent my morning with law students at NYU.  I forget sometimes how annoying law students are.  I've grown numb to the grown up version of it.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

LOL.  Ok.  Good.  And my name is spelled properly without extraneous letters.  Zabzieh is a totally different name.  

I spent my morning with law students at NYU.  I forget sometimes how annoying law students are.  I've grown numb to the grown up version of it.

:rofl:

eta watching Michael Chen's lawyer friend on CNN going at Stormy Daniel's lawyer brought it all back.

Edited by Fragile Bird

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45 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I dare you to prove it in court!

:P

Also, I had to ask because I’ve got Jace’s McDaniels meltdown in my multiquote and it’s making it really difficult to move quotes from thread to thread.

I'm expecting a detailed rebuttal?

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2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Brilliant summary of why Donald is the most mockable president of all time.

All that even the least biased of the media need do is report exactly what Donald says and does. The comedians can take it from there.

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16 hours ago, dmc515 said:

1.  Liberals respond to fear-mongering as well, although not to the extent of conservatives.  This has been demonstrated by research on the rally round the flag effect.

Psstt... Hey, dude...

Ya got any more of that research?

It's the good stuff.

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1 hour ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

LOL.  Ok.  Good.  And my name is spelled properly without extraneous letters.  Zabzieh is a totally different name.  

Whatever you say, Mrs. S.

On a related note, I’ve always wondered what people’s names mean. I threw “Zabzie” into the Google machine and the only match was your profile here.

Quote

I spent my morning with law students at NYU.  I forget sometimes how annoying law students are.  I've grown numb to the grown up version of it.

Why are they so bad? Are they trying to be know it alls, or are they just lacking the soul crushing experience of practicing for a decade?

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1 hour ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

I'm expecting a detailed rebuttal?

Why the “?”?

And it needs no rebuttal, it’s just hilarious and I plan on deploying it at the ideal time. Here’s a taste for the uninitiated:  

Quote

IT'S ALL ROGGED 

ROGGED! THEY SAID I COULDN'T WIN, THE FENCE WAS IN! IT WAS ROGGED FOR CREAKY @Kalbear 

But I WON! I'M IN NOW BABY AND THE WHOLE WORLD FONNA HEAR ABOUT JACE AND THE JIANT BEAN POD!

JACE NEW! JACE NEW! FAKE KNEWS!

JACE NOWED IT WEREN'T GON BE MCSNAKE'ELS IN INDY! JACE SMAET 

WE CAUTH THEM DIDN'T WE!?! OK WE CAUTH THEM BIG TIME! THEY RYODE THEY WAS NEVVER GON GET KAUT BUT WE QETCHED THEM!

IS SO FUN! LIKE THE GRWAT SLUTH. 

FAKE MOSE! IT'S ALL FAKE

There is no god. We all die alone. SAD!

This part of her rant comes after she goes scorched Earth on everything. The number of F-bombs is high enough to melt my computer.   

Never change Jace!

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34 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Whatever you say, Mrs. S.

On a related note, I’ve always wondered what people’s names mean. I threw “Zabzie” into the Google machine and the only match was your profile here.

Why are they so bad? Are they trying to be know it alls, or are they just lacking the soul crushing experience of practicing for a decade?

1.  I think you know enough about who I am IRL that you will find that if you apply your prodigious powers of deduction and intellect you can figure out where Zabzie comes from.

2.  Oh it's such a mixture.  

  • The Gunner:  Hand up like a rifle shot at all times, ready to impart useless knowledge entirely tangentially related to the subject you are discussing.  You would think that the phrase frolic and detour was invented for them, except when you are discussing the actual doctrine of frolic and detour, in which case, it's more like Alice Down the Rabbithole (and you learn, much to your chagrin, the real history of the phrase).
  • The Do-Gooder:  Butter wouldn't melt in their mouth.  They are going to save the world ONE.LAWSUIT.AT.A.TIME.  All money is TEH EVUL and consistency and logic are not valued when they do not advance the worldview.  Tend to be more competitive than you'd think about grades.
  • The Scion:  There because daddy said to go to law school.  Usually bored; hasn't done the reading; checks phone continually; great in study groups because they usually bring the booze.
  • Grown Up Tracy Flick:  Takes notes constantly on a computer - basically types down verbatim what the professor says and can read it back almost as well as a court reporter.  Understanding limited.
  • Silently Dying Inside:  Went to law school because they didn't know what to do/hated being a [  ].  Worried about getting a job to pay off enormous loans.  Hates the subject matter.  Freaking out about getting straight B+s first semester.  
  •  The Foreign LLM Student:  All comments begin "but in my country...." or "what kind of cross border angle can you describe."  Particularly deadly when combined with The Gunner.

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43 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Why the “?”?

And it needs no rebuttal, it’s just hilarious and I plan on deploying it at the ideal time. Here’s a taste for the uninitiated:  

This part of her rant comes after she goes scorched Earth on everything. The number of F-bombs is high enough to melt my computer.   

Never change Jace!

I'm particularly fond of "Creaky @Kalbear " if I might pat myself on the back a bit.

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