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Kandrax

POV number of chapters prediction.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/13/2018 at 5:27 PM, Megorova said:

That chapter is 3,159 words long.

For example his chapters in ADWD were - The Queensguard 4,739; The Discarded Knight 4,106; The Kingbreaker 6,456.

So Barristan's chapter in TWOW is 25% or 50% shorter than his chapters in ADWD.

However, the Arya, Sansa, and Theon chapters are at least 6,000 words long, roughly the average of ADWD.  So even if they are a little shorter, 85 chapters or so is probably the absolute max.  

I suspect that one of the reasons it is taking so long is that he has more story than he has room to fit it in, and is having difficulty deciding what to remove.

Edited by Nevets

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I suspect that one of the reasons it is taking so long is that he has more story than he has room to fit it in, and is having difficulty deciding what to remove.

I have read somewhere, that GRRM said that he has written 1000 or 1500 pages from TWOW, and a bit less for ADOS. Which could mean, that some events in those books are happening at the same time period. Also from Theon's chapter, it is obvious that what was happening in that chapter, happened before Jon's last chapter in ADWD. So I think that maybe 1/3, or even half of TWOW is happening in time span prior Epilogue of ADWD. And that probably last half of TWOW is happening at the same time span, as first half of ADOS. This can explain why GRRM is writting both books at once, and already has wrote so many pages, for both of them, but has a problem with continuing TWOW. Probably because he's trying to tie together what already happened in ADWD, with what is happening in TWOW and ADOS. If he had to tie together only ADWD and TWOW, it would have been easier, but he has to make all three books work together, if many events in them are happening in the same time slot, but in different places, and seen from different POVs.

Edited by Megorova

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12 minutes ago, Megorova said:

I have read somewhere, that GRRM said that he has written 1000 or 1500 pages from TWOW, and a bit less for ADOS.

I also remember seeing something similar, and also that it had been debunked.  I seriously doubt that he is writing both simultaneously (as opposed to having stuff pushed back into the next book).

14 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Also from Theon's chapter, it is obvious that what was happening in that chapter, happened before Jon's last chapter in ADWD. So I think that maybe 1/3, or even half of TWOW is happening in time span prior Epilogue of ADWD.

I doubt anywhere near that much is overlapping.  If  you remember, there was also some overlap between ACOK and ASOS.  I think the battles for Winterfell and Meereen will overlap, plus the solution to Brienne/Jaime.  Other than that, I don't see much overlap.  Arya's chapter, for example, definitely takes place after the epilogue.

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Posted (edited)

TWoW spoilers for character locations.

Spoiler

Might get a better idea by breaking down POVs by location though that will change through the course of the book. Might point to a character dying or changing location.

Slavers Bay / Essos

Daenerys (with Dothraki) - less as usual.

Tyrion (with slaves) - more as Tyrion typically gets a lot of chapters.

Victarion— a few

Barristan— a few. I can see him not being comfortable with the new Fire and Blood Dany (Aerys flashbacks) and not sticking around.

Arya (Braavos) - more as Arya typically gets a lot of chapters. Can see her ending up in Slavers Bay.

 

King’s Landing

Cersei— on the higher end as she’s the only one here now and lots going on. At least until someone else arrives.

 

Stormlands - headed to King's Landing

Arianne—fewer

JonCon— fewer

 

Dorne

Areo— maybe a reasonable amount. Seems like there’s history to Dorne which will become relevant in the future.

 

Riverlands / Vale / (Westerlands?)—seems like a lot will be happening here and the Riverlands usually gets a lot of attention. Actually, this seems a bit thin to me.

Brienne— more

Jaime— more

Sansa— fewer as usual. 

 

North—Because we’ve been told in sooo muuuch detail how Bowen Marsh would run things, I think he becomes the next LC and the wildlings and Stannis’ group get kicked out. No more POV at the Wall, but we can guess what happens from ADWD already. No one will survive the Others’ attacking. This makes Winterfell POV-heavy, so I think someone dies or they move.

Theon (Winterfell) - More. At least I hope so.

Asha (Winterfell) - a few. I’d say she dies, but as Theon has no heir, that falls to Asha.

Jon— Fewer than usual. Think he’ll spend a lot of TWOW in Ghost.

Mel - Think I heard that she was a one-off, but think maybe a few.

Bran (North of the Wall) - A few. As Bran learns more, he gets into a LF/Varys situation where he knows too much where the reader is concerned.

Davos (Skagos) - A few. Would like more here as Skagos sounds interesting, but not sure there’s time to invest in it.

 

Oldtown

Sam - middling amount. Seems like a lot going on here.

Aeron (in the vicinity, headed towards King's Landing) - a few

 

 

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

I also remember seeing something similar, and also that it had been debunked.  I seriously doubt that he is writing both simultaneously (as opposed to having stuff pushed back into the next book).

If he's still on track for 7 books, TWOW is his last chance to set anything up. Publishing TWOW without setting down the plotlines for ADOS (no more gardening!) is really risky. Would be extremely frustrating to want to do something in ADOS but realize that something in TWOW would had to have been different but it's too late now.

 

Edited by Lollygag

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47 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I think the battles for Winterfell and Meereen will overlap, plus the solution to Brienne/Jaime.  Other than that, I don't see much overlap.  Arya's chapter, for example, definitely takes place after the epilogue.

I think that between Dany flying away from Meereen, and Jon's death/or not death, passed probably 6 or so months.

Dany got news about Robert's death, in ACOK, from Quhuru Mo, captain of Cinnamon Wind, while she was in Qarth. Then some time later, in AFFC, this guy brought Sam from Braavos to Oldtown. So between that guy meeting Dany, and him meeting Sam, passed some time. In ADWD Jon was thinking about Sam and maester Aemon, that they are probably already have arrived to Citadel some time ago. And then at The Wall even more time passed. Thus by the time of Jon's death/not death, battle for Meeren, written from Barristan's and Tyrion's POVs in TWOW, already happened, and Dany already returned there from the Dothraki Sea. And Arya's chapters are not happening at the same time as Dany's. And Bran's chapters, even though they were happening (last of them) in ADWD, his last chapter happened before Jon became Lord Commander. Coldhands, Bran and Co, met Sam and Gilly, and after they parted ways, not much time passed between Bran arriving to Children's cave, and another month or so passed, until Bran ate that weirwood paste. So all those times, when Theon in ADWD were hearing things in Winterfell, were happening months after Bran's last chapter. Jon seeng Bran's face on a weirwood tree, also was long after Bran's last chapter. Thus there's big time span, that is still not covered by Bran's Pov, from his last chapter, and until assault on Jon. And big time span between Dany's last chapter and what's been lately happening in Westeros, seen thru latest POVs there. 

So there's still lots of things, that happened prior Epilogue of ADWD, and so far are not yet covered by GRRM, by Bran's POV, Jaime's, Cersei's, etc.

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On 4/13/2018 at 6:33 PM, Lucius Lovejoy said:

Jon Snow - 0 (I believe he will be resurrected / never died in the first place, but he will cease to be a POV now)

I think this may be the case with the introduction of Melisandre as a POV. Why give the Wall another POV character if Jon's going to be around as a POV again?

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Posted (edited)
On 13.4.2018 at 9:44 AM, Kandrax said:

Sansa-8

i think she will have more, since she is the only pov with littlefinger and the only one in the vale, i predict 12

On 13.4.2018 at 9:44 AM, Kandrax said:

Daenerys-11

thats way to many imo, i would say 8 max.

the rest is good

Edited by Euron Lannister

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22 hours ago, Megorova said:

I think that between Dany flying away from Meereen, and Jon's death/or not death, passed probably 6 or so months.

Dany got news about Robert's death, in ACOK, from Quhuru Mo, captain of Cinnamon Wind, while she was in Qarth. Then some time later, in AFFC, this guy brought Sam from Braavos to Oldtown. So between that guy meeting Dany, and him meeting Sam, passed some time. In ADWD Jon was thinking about Sam and maester Aemon, that they are probably already have arrived to Citadel some time ago. And then at The Wall even more time passed. Thus by the time of Jon's death/not death, battle for Meeren, written from Barristan's and Tyrion's POVs in TWOW, already happened, and Dany already returned there from the Dothraki Sea. And Arya's chapters are not happening at the same time as Dany's. And Bran's chapters, even though they were happening (last of them) in ADWD, his last chapter happened before Jon became Lord Commander. Coldhands, Bran and Co, met Sam and Gilly, and after they parted ways, not much time passed between Bran arriving to Children's cave, and another month or so passed, until Bran ate that weirwood paste. So all those times, when Theon in ADWD were hearing things in Winterfell, were happening months after Bran's last chapter. Jon seeng Bran's face on a weirwood tree, also was long after Bran's last chapter. Thus there's big time span, that is still not covered by Bran's Pov, from his last chapter, and until assault on Jon. And big time span between Dany's last chapter and what's been lately happening in Westeros, seen thru latest POVs there. 

So there's still lots of things, that happened prior Epilogue of ADWD, and so far are not yet covered by GRRM, by Bran's POV, Jaime's, Cersei's, etc.

Eve with all this, it could probably be covered in 15 chapters or so - about half for the battles, and one for each character that needs to be covered.  This would be 15-20% of the book.  Noticeable, but not especially massive or overbearing

18 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

I think this may be the case with the introduction of Melisandre as a POV. Why give the Wall another POV character if Jon's going to be around as a POV again?

Maybe to add additional perspective?  Melisandre likely has her own interests and knowledge that Jon lacks.  Similar to why there was both Tyrion and Sansa at Kings Landing.  Plus Jon is likely to be incapacitated/comatose/dead for awhile at the beginning, and someone needs to cover events at Castle Black.  

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