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U.S. Politics: Who's Cohen Down?

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He gets thrown from the top of Trump Tower by a bunch of prostitutes.All the foreshadowing leads this way........

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Posted (edited)

I keep seeing the numbers for Republicans who are not running again, how many Democrats are not running again?

eta: lol, CNN just answered my question, 18 Dems, 40 Reps, And one of their sources says it might be 8 more Republicans, 3 more for sure. 18 states have not hit their filing deadlines yet.

Edited by Fragile Bird

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Posted (edited)

The Orange One shows he’s a bigger dumb ass than Dubya. That is one heck of a feat.
 

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/14/17237788/trump-tweet-syria-mission-accomplished-bush

Quote

Less than 24 hours after ordering missile strikes in Syria, President Donald Trump declared, “Mission Accomplished!” in a tweet on Saturday.

The reaction was swift: Twitter users and political pundits immediately drew parallels with President George W. Bush’s now-infamous 2003 speech just over a month into the Iraq war, in which he announced an end to “major combat operations” in Iraq under a “Mission Accomplished” banner. In actuality, the war was far from over, and would stretch on for years.

And conservative sorts people, I’d imagine, will eat that shit up, like its the best thing ever. Mmm. Hmmm. Taste good, can I have another serving?

Well not surprisingly, the C suite shows what its real priorities are.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/14/17237960/trump-tax-cuts-bank-earnings-tweets

Quote

Late last week, the CEO of one of Citigroup, one of the country’s largest banks, laid out why the stock market and corporate America are just fine with President Donald Trump despite his volatile nature — because tax cuts outweigh Trump tweets.

Michael Corbat discussed the megabank’s first-quarter results in a call with analysts on Friday, explaining why he remains calm despite White House-generated uncertainty. “The volatility we see from morning tweets, or stances that vary from time to time — I wouldn’t say the world is numb or numbing to that, but the positive things that happen are overwhelmingly that,” he said.

In other words, despite concerns about a possible US-China trade war, Trump’s volatile reactions to special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation, and the potential for escalating conflict in places such as Syria and North Korea, December’s Republican-passed tax cuts are keeping things peachy on Wall Street and in the C-suite.

.........................................................

Not that I ever drink Starbuck’s over priced coffee, when regular old black gas station coffee is good enough for little old  me. In fact, I’d probably drink coffee strained through a dirty sock, if I were desperate enough. But, if I ever though about going into a Starbuck’s, this kills it.

https://www.vox.com/identities/2018/4/14/17238494/what-happened-at-starbucks-black-men-arrested-philadelphia

Quote

Two black men were arrested and escorted out of a Philadelphia Starbucks on Thursday after staff called the police to report they refused to leave; the men hadn’t ordered anything and were reportedly waiting for a business associate to arrive. The staff reportedly called 911 because Starbucks does “not allow nonpaying people from the public to come in and use the restroom,” Philadelphia Police Commissioner Richard Ross told the Philadelphia Inquirer. The employees said the men were trespassing and had refused to leave the restaurant.

A video of the incident has swept across the internet and sparked widespread outrage, prompting Starbucks to issue a less-than-satisfying apology on Saturday afternoon.

.........................................................................

Robert Skidelsky covers the sorry ass intellectual history of austerity.

What were the papers or articles that bolstered right wing austerity talking points? I'd say it was (a short list)

1. Cole and Ohanian's paper that the New Deal delayed the recovery. It was a horseshit paper for at least a few reasons.

2. Alberto Alesina's expansionary austerity paper.

3. Amity Schlaes book Forgotten Man (Conservative horseshit you should forget about). One of her main claims? The stock market didn't return to its pre 1929 level until the 1950s. Forget about showing actual GDP data.

4. Interns at the Cato Institute being allowed to hit the LINEST function on Excel without knowing what in the hell they were doing.

5. Random nonsensical horseshit from Cochrane, Fama, Dan Mitchell, Lucas, etc. etc.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-advanced-economies-lost-decade-by-robert-skidelsky-2018-04?

Quote

NDON – Ten years after the 2007-2008 financial crisis, it is worth asking where the world’s developed economies are today, where they would have been had there been no crisis, and, perhaps more important, where they might have been had different policy choices prevailed before and after the collapse.
The first two questions can be answered with a single graph, which shows real (inflation-adjusted) per capita GDP growth for OECD countries from 2000 to 2018. As a bloc, the OECD spent five years getting back to where it was just before the crash (the eurozone took two years longer). And its average annual growth rate (1.5%) has remained at three-quarters of the pre-crash level (2%).

 

Quote

Looking back, it is clear that policy interventions immediately following the 2008 crash did make a difference, at least in the near term. As the graph below shows, the 2008 collapse was as steep as that of 1929, but it lasted for a much shorter time. Unlike US Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon in 1929, no one in 2008 really wanted to “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate,” in order to “purge the rottenness out of the system.” In other words, no one wanted to create the conditions for another Adolf Hitler to emerge.1

 

Quote

Yet in 2010, before the shoots had time to flower, OECD governments rolled back their stimulus policies and introduced austerity policies, or “fiscal consolidation,” designed to eliminate deficits and put debt/GDP ratios on a “declining path.” It is now generally agreed that these measures slowed down the recovery, and probably reduced the advanced economies’ productive capacity as well. In Europe, Stiglitz observed in 2014, the period of austerity had “been an utter and unmitigated disaster.” And in the United States, notes DeLong, “relative performance after the Great Recession [has been] nothing short of appalling.”

 

Quote

The first, least cautious argument for fiscal austerity came from Harvard University economist Alberto Alesina, who was much in vogue during the early phase of the crisis. In April 2010, Alesina published a paper assuring European finance ministers that, “Many even sharp reductions of budget deficits have been accompanied and immediately followed by sustained growth rather than recessions even in the very short run.” Alesina based this conclusion on historical studies of fiscal contractions, and argued that a credible program of deficit reduction would boost confidence enough to offset any adverse effects of the fiscal contraction itself.
A number of Project Syndicate commentators took Alesina to task for these claims. Nobel laureate economist Robert J. Shiller countered that, contrary to Alesina’s assurances, “There is no abstract theory that can predict how people will react to an austerity program.” Writing in 2012, Shiller correctly predicted that “austerity programs in Europe and elsewhere appear likely to yield disappointing results.”

Alesina's empirical methodology was latter shown to be very dubious.

Quote

Similarly, Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel pointed out in May 2013 that Alesina’s co-author on two influential papers, Robert Perotti, had recanted, having identified flaws in their methodology. Following more criticism of his methodology by the International Monetary Fund and the OECD, Alesina himself became considerably more circumspect about the promise of austerity. Of course, by then, he had already contributed his mite to the sum of human misery.

Whether he became more circumspect or not, the damage had already been done.

Quote

Out of the Alesina wreckage emerged another case for austerity, based on the doctrine of “short-run pain for long-run gain.” As Daniel Gros of the Center for European Policy Studies explained in August 2013, “Austerity always involves huge social costs,” yet “almost all economic models imply that a cut in expenditures today should lead to higher GDP in the long run, because it allows for lower taxes (and thus reduces economic distortions).”

Well for one, it seems to assume output growth is a fairly deterministic process and that recessions are just temporary hick ups from the trend, which we are finding out is not the case.

Quote

 And in a June 2012 Project Syndicatecommentary, Rogoff claimed that public debt levels above 90% of GDP imposed “stunning” cumulative costs on growth. The implication was clear: only by immediately reducing the growth of public debt could advanced economies avoid prolonged malaise.
This, it turned out, was another dubious recipe for recovery. Because Rogoff and Reinhart found a historical correlation between high debt and slow growth, they presumed that high debt caused slow growth. Yet it is just as likely that slow growth had caused high debt. Rogoff’s theory had led him to a particular interpretation of the data. Or, as Oscar Wilde wrote of Wordsworth, “He found in stones the sermons he had already hidden there.”

Also, that paper was shown to be empirically flawed by a graduate student who tried to replicate the results.

Quote

While the Rogoff/Reinhart school was calling for rapid reductions in the debt-to-GDP ratio to boost growth, Keynesians pointed out that austerity itself was limiting growth, by reducing demand. The Keynesian argument was straightforward. Because the slump had been caused by an increase in private-sector saving, the recovery would have to be driven by government dissaving – deficit spending – to offset the negative impact on aggregate demand.

In simple Robinson Caruso models where Robinson Caruso the firm owner knows what Robinson Caruso the consumer’s intended future spending plans are, and act of savings automatically translates into an act of investment. In the real world where firms don’t know what a consumer’s future plans are, not so much.

Quote

Hysteresis, which helps to explain the decline in the growth rate shown in Figure 1, can also result from a large-scale switch to inferior employment. Flexible labor markets in the US and the United Kingdom have enabled both economies to return to pre-crisis unemployment levels (in the range of 4-5%). But the official unemployment rate excludes millions of workers who are involuntarily employed part-time, as well as others doing what the anthropologist David Graeber has described as “bullshit jobs.”

 

Quote

This faulty theory of money was driven by pure ideology, as the Nobel laureate economist Robert E. Lucas, Jr. unwittingly intimated in a December 2008 Wall Street Journalcommentary. Unlike fiscal expansion, Lucas observed, monetary expansion “entails no new government enterprises, no government equity in private enterprises, no price fixing or other controls on the operation of individual business, and no government role in the allocation of capital across different activities.” In his view, these are all “important virtues” – which is to say, a faulty theory is better than one that entails any increased role for the state.   

Given Lucas' mindless neo-Walrasianism, one wonders why he thinks monetary policy does anything.

Edited by OldGimletEye

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It was just pointed out on CNN that the special prosecutor who investigated Scooter Libby was appointed by James Comey.

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1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

I keep seeing the numbers for Republicans who are not running again, how many Democrats are not running again?

eta: lol, CNN just answered my question, 18 Dems, 40 Reps, And one of their sources says it might be 8 more Republicans, 3 more for sure. 18 states have not hit their filing deadlines yet.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/04/the-2018-congressional-retirement-tracker/545723/

This link has R's, D's and info on who is seeking a higher office.

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jfc

Quote

The Trump administration is seeking to completely revamp the country’s social safety net, targeting recipients of Medicaid, food stamps and housing assistance.

Trump is doing so through a sweeping executive order that was quietly issued earlier this week — and that largely flew under the radar.

It calls on the Departments of Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, Agriculture and other agencies across the federal government to craft new rules requiring that beneficiaries of a host of programs work or lose their benefits.

Trump argued with the order, which has been in the works since last year, that the programs have grown too large while failing to move needy people out of government help.

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/383106-trump-order-targets-wide-swathe-of-public-assistance-programs

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55 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

It was just pointed out on CNN that the special prosecutor who investigated Scooter Libby was appointed by James Comey.

So there's about an 80/20 chance it's simply Trump being petty and vindictive, ala his "Reverse everything Obama ever did" policy.

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Just now, Paladin of Ice said:

So there's about an 80/20 chance it's simply Trump being petty and vindictive, ala his "Reverse everything Obama ever did" policy.

Corretct me if I am wrong, but wasn't Libby charged during the last days of the Dubya Presidency. I remember (at least I think I do) remember an American acquitance being quite unhappy about Dubya commuting Libby's sentence (before the verdict), because of his great service to the Republican Party country or something like that.

So that looks more like he is either throwing a bone to the hardcore homers or indirectly sending a message for people in the cross hairs of the feds.

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2 hours ago, OldGimletEye said:

The Orange One shows he’s a bigger dumb ass than Dubya. That is one heck of a feat.
 

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/14/17237788/trump-tweet-syria-mission-accomplished-bush

And conservative sorts people, I’d imagine, will eat that shit up, like its the best thing ever. Mmm. Hmmm. Taste good, can I have another serving?

Well not surprisingly, the C suite shows what its real priorities are.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/14/17237960/trump-tax-cuts-bank-earnings-tweets

.........................................................

Not that I ever drink Starbuck’s over priced coffee, when regular old black gas station coffee is good enough for little old  me. In fact, I’d probably drink coffee strained through a dirty sock, if I were desperate enough. But, if I ever though about going into a Starbuck’s, this kills it.

https://www.vox.com/identities/2018/4/14/17238494/what-happened-at-starbucks-black-men-arrested-philadelphia

.........................................................................

Robert Skidelsky covers the sorry ass intellectual history of austerity.

What were the papers or articles that bolstered right wing austerity talking points? I'd say it was (a short list)

1. Cole and Ohanian's paper that the New Deal delayed the recovery. It was a horseshit paper for at least a few reasons.

2. Alberto Alesina's expansionary austerity paper.

3. Amity Schlaes book Forgotten Man (Conservative horseshit you should forget about). One of her main claims? The stock market didn't return to its pre 1929 level until the 1950s. Forget about showing actual GDP data.

4. Interns at the Cato Institute being allowed to hit the LINEST function on Excel without knowing what in the hell they were doing.

5. Random nonsensical horseshit from Cochrane, Fama, Dan Mitchell, Lucas, etc. etc.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-advanced-economies-lost-decade-by-robert-skidelsky-2018-04?

 

 

 

Alesina's empirical methodology was latter shown to be very dubious.

Whether he became more circumspect or not, the damage had already been done.

Well for one, it seems to assume output growth is a fairly deterministic process and that recessions are just temporary hick ups from the trend, which we are finding out is not the case.

Also, that paper was shown to be empirically flawed by a graduate student who tried to replicate the results.

In simple Robinson Caruso models where Robinson Caruso the firm owner knows what Robinson Caruso the consumer’s intended future spending plans are, and act of savings automatically translates into an act of investment. In the real world where firms don’t know what a consumer’s future plans are, not so much.

 

Given Lucas' mindless neo-Walrasianism, one wonders why he thinks monetary policy does anything.

Just wanted to give a shout-out: thanks for these updates and analysis.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Notone said:

Corretct me if I am wrong, but wasn't Libby charged during the last days of the Dubya Presidency. I remember (at least I think I do) remember an American acquitance being quite unhappy about Dubya commuting Libby's sentence (before the verdict), because of his great service to the Republican Party country or something like that.

So that looks more like he is either throwing a bone to the hardcore homers or indirectly sending a message for people in the cross hairs of the feds.

Given many were convinced Rosenstein would be fired Friday, and it appears not to have happened, I would bet that someone in the Administration presented the pardon as an alternative to Trump to firing Rosenstein. It provides an emotional salve, sends a message to the FBI and possible snitches, and is much safer than the firing.

It might end up in Mueller's obstruction case against Trump though.

Edited by Martell Spy

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Posted (edited)

Ryan: Trillion-dollar deficits were inevitable

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/383256-ryan-trillion-dollar-deficits-were-inevitable

Quote

 

Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) says that trillion-dollar deficits could not have been avoided by the GOP-controlled Congress, responding to critics within his party who say that leaders have behaved irresponsibly.

“That was going to happen. The baby boomers retiring was going to do that,” Ryan said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” of projections that the country will start running trillion-dollar deficits as soon as 2020.


 

 
Edited by Martell Spy

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Blergh, the more Comey says stuff, the more of a worm he is. He flat out refuses to take responsibility for the fact that Drumpf is in the Whitehouse because he tipped the scales in the final week. Fewer than 100,000 swing voters - or voters who didn't bother turning up - would have averted this absolute disaster.

He was not the only factor, absolutely not. But he was a huge contributing factor and he won't admit it.

He boasts that he didn't leak or authorise any leaks while in the FBI (which is almost certainly wrong anyway) to which I demand: Why the hell didn't he?! If he is the patriot he claims to be, then your own reputation is the price worth paying to expose the fact that you claim a crime lord is running the USA, on the payroll of another crime lord running Russia.

It's a pity that all of this selflessness only emerged once he got a book deal, too. Apparently it wasn't worth saying unless he was paid to say it.

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21 hours ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

Ben Stiller! IT'S BEEN STILLER as Cohen on SNL

Here it is!

 

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3 hours ago, Yukle said:

Blergh, the more Comey says stuff, the more of a worm he is. He flat out refuses to take responsibility for the fact that Drumpf is in the Whitehouse because he tipped the scales in the final week. Fewer than 100,000 swing voters - or voters who didn't bother turning up - would have averted this absolute disaster.

He was not the only factor, absolutely not. But he was a huge contributing factor and he won't admit it.

He boasts that he didn't leak or authorise any leaks while in the FBI (which is almost certainly wrong anyway) to which I demand: Why the hell didn't he?! If he is the patriot he claims to be, then your own reputation is the price worth paying to expose the fact that you claim a crime lord is running the USA, on the payroll of another crime lord running Russia.

It's a pity that all of this selflessness only emerged once he got a book deal, too. Apparently it wasn't worth saying unless he was paid to say it.

Comey only looks good when you put him beside Trump and his defenders. 

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2 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Comey only looks good when you put him beside Trump and his defenders. 

He's not a hero...

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36 minutes ago, Darth Richard II said:

Not the one we deserve.

What does one really deserve, though? Trump Presidency was going to be and is an ugly thing.

That Comey done things that very much upset all sides is the best for his credibility. The events surrounding Clinton at the end was a political jam and being angry is doing what those who did it want.

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