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Wex, Manderly, and Glover Lied to Davos

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29 minutes ago, ladyD said:

Because he is a significant member of the household just like Cassel. It's one more thing Wex would be able to say the Ironborn did not do. 

I don't know about that. I'm sure it would have been useful information, but hardly fundamental. He wasn't going to list every person that Ramsay had whacked. 

What would have been more relevant would have been what Luwin had discussed with Osha and Bran, i.e. splitting up.

31 minutes ago, ladyD said:

Manderly and Glover communicate to Davos that Ramsey's men killed whomever the found there - but from the eyewitness account we have from Bran and Co. there are NO OTHER BODIES than the one they leave - Luwin. I

Just because they didn't see any bodies doesn't mean there weren't any. 

 

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I stopped reading responses about half way through the second page because it seems to be the same things getting repeated time and time again.

As far as the #'s discrepancy, there seems to be several valid possibilities, the most likely imo being that Luwin was not counted since he didn't leave.

As for why the godswood wasn't burned, I don't think this is in any way inconsistent.  We look at the Boltons and see terrible men, but they are northmen, most of whom will hold to the old gods to at least some degree, not wanting to burn their own church does not seem in any way unreasonable to me.

As for not seeing any bodies, it is not as if we are shown a sweep of the godswood, its not this 1 little pool, its acres of essentially forest, you can't just see the whole thing.

As for leaving Luwin, they didn't.  He wasn't there are the time.  He likely fell where he was stabbed and played dead, then after they left crawled to the godswood to die in some relative peace/ get a drink of water.

I believe you looked at this all wrong.  Yes the story is bullshit, but that doesn't mean Wex wasn't there.  We know Wex was in WF when it was sacked, and we know he survived, so he hid somewhere, and it wasn't the crypts.

The bullshit comes when we are told that a lone Ironborn tracked a wildling and a Direwolf for a thousand miles across the north without being discovered, then somehow came into Manderlys possession, meaning he crossed the entire north again to get to Manderly lands.

I feel safe saying that didn't happen.  But that doesn't mean the jist of the story is not correct.  There are several plausible explanations.  The one I like best is what I feel I game theorized out.  If I am Wex and want to survive where do I go?  My answer is Moat Cailin.  He doesn't know Dagmer retook Torhens square which would actually be his best bet.  He made the journey from Torrhens square to WF once, so going back should be possible and it is the closest held Ironborn position, but he doesn't know the Ironborn retook it.  That leaves Moat Cailin or Deepwood Mott.  He doesn't really know where Deepwood Mott is and it requires going through a huge forest which people were generally afraid of at that time.  Moat Cailin on the other hand has the largest Ironbron presence, and a road to follow.  By staying off but near the Kingsroad, he just has to move south, probably at night and in a few weeks he will be there.  

Now put yourself in Manderlys shoes.  A huge Ironborn presence at Moat Cailin, which seemingly borders your lands, your damn sure going to have patrols out to know if the Ironborn try to move inland.  So it does not seem unreasonable that these scouts could have caught Wex going to the place he would logically have tried to go.  If he overheard Osha tell Luwin they would go to Skagos, then the info is correct anyway.

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Posted (edited)

@aryagonnakill#2 Thanks for your comment. I disagree. If Wex was in the tree, your saying he went through the acres of forest and saw men slaughtered and then went to the heart tree to hide? While there was a sweep happening? BC Manderly said Wex was in the one tree for a time, when did he have time to survey the wood? During the sweep? Certainly not after because he needed to chase Osha and as the text says he stayed there until he heard the voices so not before either. Also, the edge of the wood is burnt, suggesting a fire was started but not maintained...they tried to burn it or allow it to burn. The broken tower was unburnt as well---no fire reached there at all. If you look at a map of WF and trace Bran's circuit through the place it looks like they stopped sacking just short of the Godswood and just let the fires do their thing.

I don't understand your point about them not leaving Luwin at the pool. That's where they left him, which would have been right under Wex if he was in the tree. 

Additionally, if I were Wex I would go back to the last place I saw IronBorn which would be the stoney shore as it is about 1.5 days ride from Winterfell and he knows where that is. He's not from the North, we have no proof he has ever been to Moat Cailin why would you head there? It's much farther away and you have no idea where it is, or how those men are doing. There are men using WF as a waystation between Asha and the Cleftjaw - that's in the text. I would go to the people I know that are closest to me and are presumably doing well which is what I surmise Wex did. Walking to Moat Caitlin alone at 12 seems less feasible.

Edited by ladyD

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Lady D, it's difficult for me to tell whether you are feeling beleaguered or if you are exhilarated by the discussion here. I'm sorry if you are feeling attacked but I hope that the repeating of the same points over and over again is just a sign of your enthusiasm for the vivid images you have in mind when you read the scenes, not a signal that you are feeling defensive.

Please don't go to the trouble of quoting pages and pages of text. I am guilty of posting very long posts (this being one example of many) but I know that people in this forum appreciate it when we make a point clearly and succinctly. It can take effort to zero in on shorter pieces of evidence, but that's what people really want when trying to sort out literary points. Go to the source and pull out only the phrases or passages that really support the main idea(s).

My own passion for these novels includes analysis of the events in the plot, which seems to be your focus here - who did what in the gods wood, what did Wex "say", etc. But I am also interested - very interested - in how the author uses details of language as well as parallels between the events of the plot and either legends or other events in the plot. I have found that expanding the scope of inquiry on each re-read allows me to see things I've never seen before and to understand why the author included certain details that didn't seem important or logical on the first or second reading. For instance, GRRM sets up subtle comparisons between characters who initially appear to be unrelated but turn out to have similar roles or experiences. Sometimes a detail or phrase that doesn't make sense on first reading becomes clearer when you discover a link to another character or story arc where other details have been revealed.

I know you provided some textual support for your points as this thread evolved, and that was helpful. Thanks for that. But I'm still missing a few pieces of evidence that seem central to your argument - for instance, where does Wex "specifically say" that the godswood was burned? Or am I misunderstanding your point?

Another point seems to be that any Winterfell residents found in the godswood by Ramsey's men would have been killed there and their bodies left there. It seem plausible to me, though, that the men would have rounded up people and brought them to the courtyard to be killed in front of their co-workers, friends and families. Or in front of Ramsey, who likes to watch people suffer. You could make a case for your vision and I could make an equally strong case for the alternative scenario because neither situation is described in the mention of this "sweep" in the briefing provided to Davos. We don't know how many people sought refuge in the godswood - we do know that it had high walls and that direwolves had been kept there shortly before the fire. So it's possible that very few people went in there in an attempt to escape the violence because they knew it was a dead end.

The question of the six voices seems to have been resolved by the fact that only five people spoke in the scene with Luwin in the godswood. But this is the kind of detail that benefits from a close and accurate reading of the phrase and its context.

“… He climbed the heart tree and hid himself amongst the leaves. Bolton’s men searched the godswood twice and killed the men they found there, but none thought to clamber up into the trees. Is that how it happened, Wex?”

The boy flipped up Glover’s dagger, caught it, nodded.

Glover said, “He stayed up in the tree a long time. He slept amongst the branches, not daring to descend. Finally he heard voices down beneath him.”

“The voices of the dead,” said Wyman Manderly

Wex held up five fingers, tapped each one with the dagger, then folded four away and tapped the last again.

“Six of them,” asked Davos. “There were six.”

“Two of them Ned Stark’s murdered sons.”

“How could the mute tell you that?”

“With chalk. He drew two boys … and two wolves.”

“The lad is ironborn, so he thought it best not to show himself,” said Glover. “He listened. The six did not linger long amongst the ruins of Winterfell. Four went one way, two another. …”

Here's more clarity, it seems to me, of what was intended by the description of six people in the godswood. Like it or not, Luwin is not included in "the six did not linger." It's clear to me from the passage that the headcount refers to the people who walked away from the ruins of Winterfell.

Another important phrase is, "The voices of the dead," uttered by Manderly. I believe that Manderly is a symbolic parallel for Lady Stoneheart in this scene. He will have his throat cut by Freys and Catelyn has her throat cut by Freys, resulting in the loss of her voice. Manderly is named after a river and Catelyn is from Riverrun. Although dead, Catelyn miraculously rises and regains her voice through the use of gestures and a lipreader among the BwB. On the surface, Manderly's "voices of the dead" remark seems to refer to the fact that Theon and "Reek" reported that the Stark boys and their traveling companions had been killed but now Wex found that they were alive. But the remark may have deeper meaning, especially if the comparison between Manderly and Catelyn turns out to be true.

Because I have made a specialty of looking for clues in the subtext, I would also say that Wex does not "specifically say" in this scene that he heard six voices. Davos says that, interpreting Wex's gestures. Wex uses a dagger to indicate five and then one. This might seem like a small detail to you. To me, it says there is a mystery we don't yet understand.

Also, why use the dagger to tap his fingertips? We know that Wex can't speak with his mouth, but wouldn't it be faster to hold up six fingers instead of holding the knife in one hand and counting his fingertips on the other hand? I think the use of the dagger to point to each finger is an allusion to the test for greyscale. Jon Connington tells Tyrion to use this test to check himself after he falls in the river. It turns out that the test is not needed by Tyrion (so far) but it is needed by Connington, who contracts the illness when he dives in to rescue Tyrion.

So why would the author throw in the greyscale reference in this scene? I think we are supposed to compare the mission to rescue Rickon with the mission to nurture Young Griff / fAegon and to bring him back to Westeros. Wex is not a direct comparison for Jon Connington, but Davos is. Davos is being sent to bring back the young heir to Lord Stark. (And Davos is missing the fingers on one hand - it's almost as if he has been inoculated against greyscale.)

Wex is similar to Davos in that both of them learn to read and write in the late stages of the books. And both are loyal to their bosses - Davos would do anything for Stannis; Wex is doing his best to clear Theon's reputation and to help ensure that people won't hold him responsible for war crimes he did not commit. Wex was alone in a tree after the burning of Winterfell; Davos was alone on an island after the battle of the Blackwater.

This look at the larger context may help to make sense of the possible Lord Wyman / Catelyn parallel as well: Catelyn charges Brienne with finding and rescuing Sansa and Arya. Like Davos going to Skagos and Connington giving up his life to protect fAegon, a mission to protect and retrieve a highborn child with a claim to a "throne." This quest eventually takes Brienne to Crackclaw Point with Nimble Dick and Pod. Although Brienne doesn't find Ser Dontos and Sansa there, as she had hoped, I think we are supposed to compare Brienne's quest to the quest about to be undertaken by Davos. If Brienne's experience is a guide, Rickon may not be on Skagos just as Sansa was not at The Whispers. (But the parallels are never an exact match from arc to arc, so GRRM may surprise us with the upcoming details of Rickon's story.)

There are lots of other details that provide hints about the characters affected by Wex's observations. For instance, details set up a comparison between Rickon Stark and Qhorin Halfhand, of all people. In a re-read of AGoT, the discussion noted that each Stark child takes on characteristics of people bitten by their wolves: Shaggy bit Maester Luwin in the crypt at Winterfell. Which of Luwin's characteristics will Rickon adopt? Maybe his interest in magic? There is a lot more analysis to be done, but I think the links among Rickon, Qhorin and Maester Luwin might explain why Wex indicates five fingers and then, separately, one more finger. I think Rickon is being raised as a little badass Lord of the Underworld, like his grandpa Rickard. Possibly a little warlock, with help from the mysterious Osha. (Who has parallels with Jon Snow - sorry, this is an endless game, finding parallels.) You may have noticed that there is a lot of symbolic death and rebirth in the books (as well as literal death and rebirth in cases like Catelyn, Gregor Clegane, Septon Chayle, Ser Mandon Moore, Patchface, etc.). I suspect that the "voices of the dead" and the 5 + 1 finger counting might be foreshadowing to indicate that Rickon is the +1. He is different from the other five people observed by Wex.

Your first post and thread have generated a lot of responses, and that's a good accomplishment! I hope you will continue to raise questions and promote good dialogue in the forum. And I apologize if I got too pedantic in the initial paragraphs of this comment. Maybe you can tell I used to teach English Language Arts.

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20 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

:agree:

We also have the dream - in ADwD Jon I I think - where Ghost/Jon sees Shaggy and a unicorn. So why would Wex lie about how/where he came across Bran & co and learned about Rickon going to Skagos, but still pass on the correct info? It serves no purpose whatsoever. 

Bingo. GRRM is not a perfect writer. He is really good, but some details will be left behind or escape him 

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3 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

Maester Luwin was hurt in the yard, not in the godswood. He was trying to get to the Theon when he was speared between the shoulders and run down by a horseman. The odds are good that he just stayed in the yard, played dead while Ramsay was and his men were rounding up the women and children and putting Winterfell to the torch. If the men swept the godswood twice looking for survivors, Maester Luwin was simply not there, but dragged himself there after everyone was gone.

That's what I think, as well. Either he was unconscious or pretended to be dead, and Ramsay's men didn't bother to do anything about the dead, they left them where they fell, no matter who they were.

3 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

As far as Wex goes, we don't know how far he traveled behind Osha. We know she said she would follow the kingsroad. He could have overheard her mentioning Skagos. Wex could have decided to go to one of the three places where he knew the ironborn were and been taken by the Manderlys in the process of doing that. We are told that Wyman Manderly sent knights by barge as reinforcements to Rodrik Cassel, but as far as I remember, those men were not outside the gates of Winterfell (neither were the Umbers for that matter) when Ramsay showed up with his Dreadfort men. Wex could have been taken and delivered to White Harbor by Wyman's own men.

I don't see anything implausible here :-)

 

3 hours ago, ladyD said:

There was no sweep. If there was there would have been bodies in the godswood and it would have been burnt as Wex described. Manderly and Glover communicate to Davos that Ramsey's men killed whomever the found there - but from the eyewitness account we have from Bran and Co. there are NO OTHER BODIES than the one they leave - Luwin.

Oh? And where does it say "they didn't find any bodies in godswood"? I've re-read the chapter, and it doesn't. There may have been bodies which either Bran didn't see because they were not along the path they took to the hearttree, or were omitted in the description because they were not important, just like GRRM doesn't describe every single body they encounter as they roam amongst the castle ruins the whole morning

3 hours ago, ladyD said:

If Wex was there he would have known there was no sweep. He would not have assumed Luwin got caught in one. Luwin dragging himself there is obvious - he got stabbed by the front gate - totally true. Has nothing to do with Wex saying there was a sweep when there was not one. 

See above - it would have been perfectly possible for Luwin to drag himself there after Ramsay and his men were gone. In fact, it is the only explanation that makes sense, because had he tried to crawl there while they were present, they would have finished him off.

As for the inconsistence between the people and voices, I think it is a matter of omission as well as a couple other linguistic knacks the names of which I have forgotten: the number given doesn't necessarily relate to the number of voices heard (and as you have noted yourself, it is technically only five people speaking, anyway). What Wex "said" is not, "I heard six people talking"; what he, with the intrusions from Manderly and Glover, says, is "I heard voices. There were six people who were supposed to be dead". It is completely irrelevant how many people were actually speaking under the hearttree, and poor Luwin is irrelevant, too because he is not one who had disappeared from the castle and had been presumed dead, and he died shortly after, anyway. Hence the discrepancy in the numbers: number six doesn't relate to everyone speaking or present but to the number of people who were supposed to be dead but weren't and are hugely important.

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2 hours ago, ladyD said:

@aryagonnakill#2 Thanks for your comment. I disagree. If Wex was in the tree, your saying he went through the acres of forest and saw men slaughtered and then went to the heart tree to hide? While there was a sweep happening? BC Manderly said Wex was in the one tree for a time, when did he have time to survey the wood? During the sweep? Certainly not after because he needed to chase Osha and as the text says he stayed there until he heard the voices so not before either. Also, the edge of the wood is burnt, suggesting a fire was started but not maintained...they tried to burn it or allow it to burn. The broken tower was unburnt as well---no fire reached there at all. If you look at a map of WF and trace Bran's circuit through the place it looks like they stopped sacking just short of the Godswood and just let the fires do their thing.

I don't understand your point about them not leaving Luwin at the pool. That's where they left him, which would have been right under Wex if he was in the tree. 

Additionally, if I were Wex I would go back to the last place I saw IronBorn which would be the stoney shore as it is about 1.5 days ride from Winterfell and he knows where that is. He's not from the North, we have no proof he has ever been to Moat Cailin why would you head there? It's much farther away and you have no idea where it is, or how those men are doing. There are men using WF as a waystation between Asha and the Cleftjaw - that's in the text. I would go to the people I know that are closest to me and are presumably doing well which is what I surmise Wex did. Walking to Moat Caitlin alone at 12 seems less feasible.

When I said they didn't leave Luwin there I meant the Ironborn, they left him where they stabbed him and after they left he crawled to the godswood.  Wex was up in a tree having a better vision of the godswood than Bran and Rickon, who were not concerned with looking around anyway, they were concernred with Luwin.  Wex was also there when the Ironborn entered the godswood, and would have heard everything that happened, he didn't even need to see it.

Why burn a broken tower?  What's the point?  And I already addressed the godswood, they didn't want to burn their own church.  The outside gets burnt a bit but by and large the flames don't make it over the wall surrounding the godswood, it is a damp place, if it were to burn a real fire would have to be set at the base of the trees, and even then without warmth and dryness it would take forever, living trees that have water in them are not easy to burn.

The Ironborn raided the Stoney Shore from ships, they came and  went, and Wex would have no way of knowing where they would be, or if they would be there at all.  Even if he were on the coast how would he get them to stop if he saw them sailing by?  Moat Cailin is the only location he knows has Ironborn that he knows how to find, because there is a road.

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7 hours ago, ladyD said:

Jojen did not speak either and Wex specifically communicated in the chapter that he heard them from the tree. Also the other points I made in the first post, how do you justify that? No bodies in the Godswood, Luwin alive to speak to Bran, and the Godswood was not burnt? He came back and reported on what he saw- for me is the only plausible explanation. Or else he would have known how Luwin died, the godwood would be burnt, and we would have seen the bodies that were caught in the sweep that Manderly describes. 

Jojen did speak, and I think it is fair that it was probably the same location. Meera speaks prior to them running and threading their way and fallen stones into trees before going further in. Then Jojen spoke with no indication they traveled any further. 

"The godswood." Meera Reed ran after the direwolf, her shield and frog spear to hand. The rest of them trailed after, threading their way through smoke and fallen stones. The air was sweeter under the trees. A few pines along the edge of the wood had been scorched, but deeper in the damp soil and green wood had defeated the flames. "There is a power in living wood," said Jojen Reed, almost as if he knew what Bran was thinking, "a power strong as fire."
 
On the edge of the black pool, beneath the shelter of the heart tree, Maester Luwin lay on his belly in the dirt. A trail of blood twisted back through damp leaves where he had crawled. Summer stood over him, and Bran thought he was dead at first, but when Meera touched his throat, the maester moaned. "Hodor?" Hodor said mournfully. "Hodor?"
 
I don't think there is any discrepancy in the number of voices.
 
As for the other things, we do know there was a mute man named Wex with the Ironborn from Theon's PoV. And somehow Manderly knows the basics of what went down at Winterfell. I don't see the point of why or how he would come up with the story of finding a mute Ironborn named Wex if he didn't actually do so. The way he survived (hiding in the trees for days) is just as plausible as any other given that he did survive outside for days.
 
It is entirely possible Manderly hasn't told Davos the entire truth. I have no idea whether they went to Skagos, but I don't think there is any evidence it is a lie either. I'm not convinced he plans to pledge Stannis White Harbour's support, first and foremost I think he plans to offer it to Jon Snow (knows Robb's will) and let him decide.
 

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22 hours ago, ladyD said:

Case in writing :-) :

Remember when Bran, Osha, Rickon, Hodor, Bran, Meera, Summer, and Shaggydog all did that circuit in WF? Well they saw the same things that Manderly mentions to Davos, with the exception of Rodrik being killed by Boltons. None of the other info had to be witnessed first hand and could be surmised from reviewing the site at least 3 days later - which is what Bran and company do. Remember Bran and Rickon were in Summer and Shaggydog for 3 days watching winterfell burn and then smolder out.

 

Let’s review what everyone sees

 

Wex actually sees Rodrick killed from the battlements

Bran notes the Winterfell men when he comes out of the crypts and immediately blames Theon

But Osha notes the Ironborn being killed and takes the time to flip one over to view his sigil

 

They also pass a burned man with no weapon burned in front of the sept with his hands drawn up looking like he was ready to punch anyone that came near him - but that could easily be someone on their knees begging shot with an arrow and burned.

 

But whats most important here for the unraveling of the manderly lie is  what they dont see. What they don’t see is bodies in the Gods wood.

 

And What Bran and company don’t see directly conflicts with Wex’s story and leads me to believe that he could not have been there when they left. And must have used his tracking ability to piece the information together.

 

Hell, we saw how he helped Theon when they were tracking Bran and Rickon- What stopped Wex from running and simply going back to Winterfell to track where everyone had gone? Especially if it were advantageous for him and the iron born? To capture Bran and Rickon?

 

So According to Manderly- Wex sees Ramsey kill Rodrik Cassel - witnesses the movements of the bolton men through the castle- and then he books it up the heart tree and stays up there for a minimum of 2 days maximum of 3 - we know because Bran is in Summer watching Winterfell burn and smolder out for that long.

 

Wex then supposedly follows Osha and Rickon somewhere and Shaggydog doesn't smell him - and he knows they ended up on Skagos because, we don’t know. I mean they could have taken a ship anywhere how does he know it was to Skagos?

 

But if nothing else I have said is convincing or It makes no sense.

Answer this If the Bolton forces searched the woods twice, and murdered who they found why the hell didn’t they find Master Luwin? I mean he literally dragged himself from the great hall where he got the spear shoved through his shoulder all the way to the Godswood...Seriously?

Not to mention - on Bran’s circuit around Winterfell - the broken tower is unscathed and so is the Gods wood. Jojen mentions the power of living wood- but what about the tower? If you ask me - the Boltons basically tired of burning the place out and stopped just short of the already ruined broken tower and the Godswood.

So we have an unburnt Godswood and an unarmed and dying witness who can still spread the tale- this means Ramsey's men didn’t go inside the Godswood at all.   Lord Manderly is lying. Or Wex? Or Both?

 

Additionally, if Wex was there he would have counted 7 voices instead of six. He counts 6 including Bran and Rickon, Meera and Jojen, and Hodor and Osha because they along with the wolves are the only TRACKS he finds leading away from the Luwin’s dead body - which if Wex was present in WF when the gates where open he would have probably seen Luwin stabbed and not assumed he was killed in a godswood sweep. And again if he was in the tree when everyone split up - he would have heard 7 people because LUWIN was alive and speaking!

And Manderly, he never tells us how Wex came to him- and gives no details on how Wex knows (a woman) “Osha”  and Bran went to Skagos. And He’s also leaving out the little detail that his own forces were present at the battle at winterfell/in the wintertown---he has men that would have returned home and told him the tale first hand - all though confused. 

I just find it hard to believe that a mute Ironborn pre-teen would feel comfortable going to Manderly on his own like that to give up his only bargaining chip - the whereabouts of Rickon. 

Again, thanks for commenting. New in the forum so my apologies for the length and again, you do not have to watch the video - I just wanted to know if anyone noticed the inconsistencies from Wex and Manderly and if so what does this mean?. The video is just a lot of granular info about what I think happened. Also, I can't get bold to turn off, so if there's a trick for that I'd really appreciate you guys letting me know how. I think it's stuck because I copy and pasted? 

 I think most of the details you are looking at are due to the extraordinary amount of time between publishing of the two novels.  Clash was published in 1998. Dance in 2011. The author is prolific. Details like the number of voices heard or the exact number of corpses can be explained away by the fact that manderly is questioning wex with yes or no questions. He is just learning to write during the davos chapters.  
Theon states how clever Wex is, and he would have to be to survive. I do get that it seems improbable  that wex would be able to follow a wildling and a direwolf without getting caught, but who says that it true. On my first read I took it to mean that Wex had followed the group until the water and then saw them get on a boat with a "Skagos or Bust" and then headed south, but who says he wasn't caught? who says he wasn't told by Osha? There is so much missing from the story that it is impossible to make a judgment on subterfuge by Wyman. Then there is this: 

On 4/16/2018 at 2:13 PM, kissdbyfire said:

:agree:

We also have the dream - in ADwD Jon I I think - where Ghost/Jon sees Shaggy and a unicorn. So why would Wex lie about how/where he came across Bran & co and learned about Rickon going to Skagos, but still pass on the correct info? It serves no purpose whatsoever. 

 

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23 hours ago, ladyD said:

Additionally, if Wex was there he would have counted 7 voices instead of six. He counts 6 including Bran and Rickon, Meera and Jojen, and Hodor and Osha because they along with the wolves are the only TRACKS he finds leading away from the Luwin’s dead body - which if Wex was present in WF when the gates where open he would have probably seen Luwin stabbed and not assumed he was killed in a godswood sweep. And again if he was in the tree when everyone split up - he would have heard 7 people because LUWIN was alive and speaking!

I might have missed something here because I don't think anyone else has mentioned it but...

Wouldn't there only be 5 sets of human tracks because Bran is being carried by Hodor?

Thanks for the link to the video.  I find having some ASOIAF watching/ listening material helps doing chores go much faster!  So I will watch at some point.

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Well I was about to respond here, when I had to dash off, so maybe some of this has been covered in the meantime ...

Quote

He saw Ulf go down with a crossbow bolt through the belly as he ran for the Great Hall. Maester Luwin was trying to reach him when a knight on a warhorse planted a spear between his shoulders, then swung back to ride over him ...Theon VI, ACOK

This was in the yard, so obviously, Luwin did drag himself to the godswood later.

Having looked back..

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

poor Luwin is irrelevant, too because he is not one who had disappeared from the castle and had been presumed dead, and he died shortly after, anyway. Hence the discrepancy in the numbers: number six doesn't relate to everyone speaking or present but to the number of people who were supposed to be dead but weren't and are hugely important.

 

1 hour ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Why burn a broken tower?  What's the point?  And I already addressed the godswood, they didn't want to burn their own church.  The outside gets burnt a bit but by and large the flames don't make it over the wall surrounding the godswood, it is a damp place, if it were to burn a real fire would have to be set at the base of the trees, and even then without warmth and dryness it would take forever, living trees that have water in them are not easy to burn.

The Ironborn raided the Stoney Shore from ships, they came and  went, and Wex would have no way of knowing where they would be, or if they would be there at all.  Even if he were on the coast how would he get them to stop if he saw them sailing by?  Moat Cailin is the only location he knows has Ironborn that he knows how to find, because there is a road.

These are excellent points.

At one time, I thought Wex could have followed Osha and Rickon, but would have been discovered by Shaggy pretty quickly. Whether Osha would ever have accepted Wex into their party or not, I have since come to agree with those who point out that Wex would most probably be heading for Moat Cailin. Separately or together though, I think they were probably all scooped up by Manderly and / or Umber men.

As someone pointed out up-thread, the deception originates with Manderly, not Wex. If Rickon is on Skagos (I think he is, because of Ghost's senses) it's because Manderly has deposited him there.

Some points to consider :

Manderly and Umber already working together building ships along the White Knife.

Just as the clans watched Bran's progress north, Manderly would have had eyes out to the south of Winterfell.

If anyone could have had interactions with the Skagosi, it would be the Umbers because of proximity and because they are now working closely with Manderly.

Widow's Watch is mentioned frequently, leading me to think Rickon & co. were dispatched from there.

As to why Manderly lies : 

He knows he (or the North) will have to deal with Stannis eventually - therefore best to keep Davos alive.

If he released Davos, it wouldn't help his chances to get his son back and it would put him on the spot regarding Stannis' expectations of fealty.

He's keeping Davos out of circulation until the Northern Resistance can get it's ducks in a row, putting itself in a better position to deal with Stannis.

Getting back to Wex : 

No doubt he "came to them" as a prisoner. He's in a position somewhat similar to Theon's ward / hostage situation. He's being treated well, learning to read and write and is no doubt very glad he didn't make it to Moat Cailin. He's telling partly his own truth and partly what Manderly wants Davos to believe.

 

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, ladyD said:

1. As Makk helped me out with, technically only 5 people were speaking - but there were 7 present and 6 pairs of tracks. If he were there he would know that. He doesn't because he was not there. Trauma is one thing but how do you explain the made up godswood sweep? Where Ramsey's men killed who they found there and burnt the godswood? When Bran and Co. walk through Winterfell the godswood is unburnt and there are NO BODIES in the godswood. Until Luwin dies by Osha's hand. 

Wex left, came back and tracked them. Its the only plausible explaination or he would know how Luwin died (not in a sweep) and if there was a sweep Ramseys men sure as hell would not leave someone alive to tell the tale. Bran and Co. came out of the crypts 3 days later --- they were watching winterfell burn from inside their wolves - that's in the text. Wex could have easily witnessed all they did several days after the burning of WF- which would explain his inconsistencies. He is tracking them and assumes Luwin was caught in a sweep.

2. This is true but Manderly had forces there at the battle of winterfell/the wintertown. Martin specifically said in a "So Spake Martin" that there were indeed survivors of the battle and that these survivors would have returned home, though with confused tales. By now they should be on to something. Also, how likely is it that Manderly would just take wex's word for it without sending someone to investigate? Wex was an enemy before he became a Manderly ward. 

3. I never said Rickon was not on Skagos. Why does everyone keep using this point? LOL - guys the thread is really only about Wex and Manderly lying to Davos about WF. IMO Manderly is working with the IBorn - that has to be a separate thread as there are a lot of quotes from the text that support this. 

Thanks for commenting! 

1 & 2. I don't remember enough of this to be of much use beyond what I've already said. Though trauma can and does conflate memories or make someone mistake dreams or things they've heard about or even imagined for actual memories. Sansa never kissed Sandor, but she seems to clearly remember having done so the night of the Battle of the Blackwater.

3. I wasn't saying that you said Rickon wasn't on Skagos. My point was that no one is going to care very much whether Wex saw/heard what Manderly and Glover say he saw/heard. They could always have gotten reports from elsewhere, run them past Wex, and decided he was corroborating them even if he had no clue or was trying to tell them something different. "Look, he's excited! It must be right!" People with an agenda have a funny way of making the info fit. 

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6 hours ago, bemused said:

As to why Manderly lies : 

He knows he (or the North) will have to deal with Stannis eventually - therefore best to keep Davos alive.

If he released Davos, it wouldn't help his chances to get his son back and it would put him on the spot regarding Stannis' expectations of fealty.

He's keeping Davos out of circulation until the Northern Resistance can get it's ducks in a row, putting itself in a better position to deal with Stannis

I think those are valid points  - Manderly doesn't want to pledge himself to Stannis but cannot afford to flat out refuse just yet, so he's basically buying himself time by dispatching Davos on... is it correct to say, a shaggydog mission? :D If Manderly was indeed the one who dispatched Rickon and Osha to Skagos, he doesn't really need Davos to go there, right? How Osha and Rickon got to Skagos is the only part of the whole story which I find potentially fishy, even though there certainly could be a plausible explanation how they got there and how Wex learned (in fact, the knowledge the two went to Skagos may not have come from Wex himself but from Manderly's own search after he learned about the survivors).

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It is also possible that the Umbers (or even the Karstarks) arranged for Rickon to go to Skagos, and that Manderly either doesn't trust them (some of the Umbers have sided with the Boltons, for example), or simply wants Rickon for himself.  Also, sending someone like Davos instead of his own men gives Manderly plausible deniability if something goes wrong.

I do agree that Wex's story of following Rickon and Osha all the way to Skagos doesn't hold water.  Whether that is due to Wex embellishing the story, difficulties in communication, or Manderly lying to Davos is unclear at this juncture.

By the way, for those who suggest that Moat Cailin would be Wex's logical destination, I think Deepwood Motte would be even more likely.  It is (or was) held by Asha, Theon's sister, who would presumably recognize him.  I expect there is a road or visible track between them.  For myself, I think Wex followed them for at least some distance and was east of Winterfell when Manderly's men caught up with him.

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11 hours ago, Nevets said:

By the way, for those who suggest that Moat Cailin would be Wex's logical destination, I think Deepwood Motte would be even more likely.  It is (or was) held by Asha, Theon's sister, who would presumably recognize him.  I expect there is a road or visible track between them.  For myself, I think Wex followed them for at least some distance and was east of Winterfell when Manderly's men caught up with him.

But Deepwood is northwest of Winterfell, so moving east would take him a long way out of his way. It would be a very dangerous direction for Osha to take, as well - Bolton and Hornwood lands.

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Why Moat Caitlin and not Torrhen’s Square? Though I’m unclear on the timeline so I suppose Wex may not have known Dagger recaptured it

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11 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Why Moat Caitlin and not Torrhen’s Square? Though I’m unclear on the timeline so I suppose Wex may not have known Dagger recaptured it

It's unlikely he would have known Dagmer captured it, as he took it some time after Rodrick left to retake Winterfell. He would have known Dagmer was at least somewhere in the area though. 

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Wex had at least one family member at Moat Cailin. He might have sought to find them. It would have taken him months to get there, but he is a pretty resourceful kid. Smarter than Theon certainly.

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14 hours ago, bemused said:

But Deepwood is northwest of Winterfell, so moving east would take him a long way out of his way. It would be a very dangerous direction for Osha to take, as well - Bolton and Hornwood lands.

I was suggesting he followed them instead of seeking out other Ironborn.  Seek intel, try to make himself useful, that sort of thing. 

In fact, he may have given up on the Ironborn and decided that his knowledge of Rickon would be valuable to the Northerners.  Who knows?  

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Nevets said:

I was suggesting he followed them instead of seeking out other Ironborn.  Seek intel, try to make himself useful, that sort of thing. 

In fact, he may have given up on the Ironborn and decided that his knowledge of Rickon would be valuable to the Northerners.  Who knows?  

Right ..This is where I waffle from month to month. :rolleyes:

My original thought was only that he followed them and wound up somehow being accepted into their group. He may be a good tracker, but he doesn't have a direwolf's senses, and it may not have been possible to stay downwind all the time. OTOH, Osha might have thought it useful to have someone else to keep watch, etc., If she could be convinced he was to be trusted.

I always have thought that of the options mentioned by Luwin... 

"White Harbor . . . the Umbers . . . I do not know . . . war everywhere . . . each man against his neighbor, and winter coming . . . such folly, such black mad folly . . ." 

... Osha must have chosen White Harbour, in a totally different direction from Bran,nowhere near Bolton lands... and Luwin's "war everywhere" was less likely in Manderly territory.

If I was Wex I might have given up on the Ironborn ^_^ But if he hadn't, he might have started out following Osha & co (safety in numbers) with the idea of making for Moat Cailin eventually, or if necessary.

Anyway, as I said, whether teamed up or separately, I think Manderly men picked them all up, dispatched Rickon, Osha and Shaggy to Skagos and took Wex to White Harbour.

 

Edited by bemused

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