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The Catspaw - means, motive, and opportunity


ToysoldierXIII

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Time to re-visit this since we still have a good decade until we see Winter.


There are four camps still running on this: Joffrey, Mance, Cersei, and LF. LF is full tinfoil I won't even bother with it here.


There are three key elements to proving a crime: means – the ability, motive – the reason, and opportunity – the chance.


Means (dagger): iirc Tyrion assumes Robert simply threw the dagger into a giant box of weapons he'll never use. How heavily guarded would such a box be?


Unguarded? Then anyone could have grabbed it, even the catspaw himself. Means all around.


Master-at-arms watching it? Mance is a ninja; this is very clear. No problem to sneak in and grab it. Joff and Cersei are not ninjas plus they are often accompanied by their own guards. Asking for the knife would set off alarm bells. Means to Mance only.


Means (silver): In ASOS Mance tells Jon he brought a bag of silver with him. Check.


Joff and Cersei have the WEALTH but do they ever have to purchase anything? Do they carry around giant bags of silver? Hell, if any two people would think silver is beneath them in a world of gold it would be those two. They'd have to ask one of their servants to fetch them a big bag of silver – more alarm bells.


Means (catspaw): one of two things that always stuck with me. A random stranger to Winterfell who smells terrible and is willing to kill a Stark? And Joff or Cersei successfully stumbled upon him to ask? There are five time lottery winners that don't have that kind of luck.


Plenty of free folk below the Wall raiding though. Remind me, who is their “king"? Recognizing a raider and giving him a mission is easy. 


Motive (Joffrey): the conclusion Jaime came to was that he did it to impress Robert. Then why wouldn't you tell him? He can't be impressed by you if he doesn't know what you did! Success or failure is inconsequential if it is the decision itself you want credit for. Plus they didn't learn about the failure for weeks or months; why would Joff keep that secret or assume he would fail?


Motive (Cersei): Well duh, self-protection from your crimes being exposed is by far the strongest motive and probably the sole reason the Cersei camp exists. They get bonus points for “mercy" which we know isn't the real case but her saying it a half dozen times then the catspaw saying it is certainly damning.


Motive (Mance): this is where some in the Mance camp slack off a little, assuming it was meant to create tension between Stark and Lannister. Meh, the other camps are right to shoot holes in that one. Simply weaken the North though? Easy opportunity presented itself, go ahead and capitalize on it.


While weaken because why not is a serviceable motive a far more powerful one also exists, provided you buy into in-universe tinfoil – Bran, BR's replacement, was the reason. Mel is convinced BR is working with the Others. Mance is public enemy #1 of the Others and very familiar with BR and other wargs. Mance says he watched the Stark kids and their wolves while he was there. Goal from the get go or simply opportunistic who knows.


Opportunity (catspaw): I tested this actually – gave a homeless guy $20 and told him to commit a crime next week. When I went back two weeks later the crime had not been committed and the homeless guy was nowhere to be found. Piss off little blonde kid or blonde skank, you paid me, are now a month's drive away, and have no idea who I am!


Mance stayed, plus as head of the shelter and soup kitchen there is loyalty in play.


Opportunity (fire): this is the second one that gets me. Fan layouts of Winterfell show that the catspaw would have to set the fire, run down the stairs of the library tower, run across a giant, open football field sized yard, and up the stairs of the keep not only faster than humanly possible (from Cat's description of the incident) but also with no one seeing or questioning it and stopping him.


This was a two man op. So now we either need to believe that Joff/Cersei found and paid a second assassin or that Mance started the fire.


“no stranger to Valyrian steel" While not MMO this is the line that everyone, both in-universe and out, clings to as the ONLY piece of evidence for Joff. Even if he did do it this line has no bearing on it – taking a dagger out of a box and handing it to an assassin hardly makes you familiar with it. Plus had he actually known it was an ultra-rare, multi-million gold dragon dagger there would be no need to give the assassin a bag of silver – just keep the knife when you are done!


I offer two better reasons for that line – boast and/or Ned. Re-read his lines, in AGOT especially the Robb sparring scene and with Mycah. Egotistical lying little snot would never allow anyone to tell him to be careful, even if it meant dropping a lie of overconfidence. How did he hack the book? How was Ned executed and with what? Overhand swing with the VS weapon his was made from. Hmm. Who was he looking at again? Tyrion his enemy and Sansa the daughter of Ned who he LOVES taunting about that execution.


It is ultimately GRRM's call. If he wants it to be Joff it will be Joff. I'm merely pointing out that from a crime analysis standpoint his call being anyone but Mance (or an unknown LF scheme) would be a bit of a plot hole/contrived coincidence.

Thoughts? Anyone change camps or solidify their stance from looking at it broken down like this? Any LF tinfoilers want to lay out how it could've been him?

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6 hours ago, ToysoldierXIII said:

Joff and Cersei have the WEALTH but do they ever have to purchase anything? Do they carry around giant bags of silver? Hell, if any two people would think silver is beneath them in a world of gold it would be those two. They'd have to ask one of their servants to fetch them a big bag of silver – more alarm bells.

Maybe Joff paid catspaw with a dagger, and bag was stolen from Mance?

 

6 hours ago, ToysoldierXIII said:

Then why wouldn't you tell him?

I have a theory that he did tell Robert. Remember when he said to Ned "Joffrey... How could i make a son like this?" I don't think he would said that just because of a cat.

 

6 hours ago, ToysoldierXIII said:

very familiar with BR and other wargs. Mance says he watched the Stark kids and their wolves while he was there. Goal from the get go or simply opportunistic who knows.

Is he? Do we have any textual evidence for your claim? How can  Rayder knew would Bran be next 3ec by watching Stark kids and direwolves before his fall?

 

6 hours ago, ToysoldierXIII said:

LF tinfoilers want to lay out how it could've been hi

For him to be behind it, Petyr needs to learn about Bran's fall, send an assassins from KL to WF and be sure that Lannisters would be accused.

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I have to accept it's Joff. It's almost impossible that a catspaw could be owned and operated by anyone who's not a cat - that's just the kind of word game that GRRM loves.

It seems a bit out of character though - all that planning, and organising, and secrecy. How could the Hound not find out? And for Joff, I think the whole point of killing someone is that he could be there to watch.

Maybe it was a completely spur of the moment thing? Some starving peasant approaches Joff, says, "Kind ser, take me into your service. I'll do anything." And Joff says, "Sure, why not? Here's a knife."

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On ‎4‎/‎28‎/‎2018 at 0:11 PM, ToysoldierXIII said:

Time to re-visit this since we still have a good decade until we see Winter.

There are four camps still running on this: Joffrey, Mance, Cersei, and LF. LF is full tinfoil I won't even bother with it here.

Why is LF tinfoil? Because he wasn't at Winterfell and didn't know about Bran's fall? He doesn't have to in order to be the puppet-master behind the operation. Consider:

Before Joff leaves King's Landing, LF pulls him aside and tells him how terrible it would be for Ned to become Hand; terrible for Cersei, Jaime, House Lannister and even Joff himself. Then he says the only thing that would prevent this is a great tragedy befalling House Stark, say, the sudden death of one of the children. Doesn't matter which one.

So Joff arrives at Winterfell with these thoughts/fears in mind, and when Bran does fall it would appear that the situation has resolved itself. But when Ned comes south anyway, Joff sends the catspaw to finish the job. In this way, we still have LF pulling the strings, but the target and the clumsy plan are all Joff. This also gives Joff a better motivation than what has been presented in text so far: naked self-interest.

And since it always comes up later, I'll add that LF is in no way trying to prevent Ned from becoming Hand -- he is just trying to get Joffrey to act. LF knows as well as Tyrion that if Robert wants Ned to be Hand, Ned will be Hand. But if not, well, there are plenty of ways to sow chaos in the realm through Jaime.

I think this also allows us to view Joffrey and Sansa's little ride along the Trident in a different light as well. With no news coming from Winterfell about Bran's death, he makes one last-ditch effort to kill a Stark child by getting her drunk and drowning her in the river, and at the same time untangling himself from a marriage that neither he nor his mother wants.

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18 hours ago, Kandrax said:

For him to be behind it, Petyr needs to learn about Bran's fall

no he doesn't

LF: "kill a younger stark child shortly after the lannisters left"

and the catspaw would simply take the easiest target, bran.

And why would LF order this?

This would make all starks (and Theon) think of the Lannisters as enemies, not just Ned and Cat. and after all it was Robb who started the war, a war is chaos, and during/after a war Lordships are granted, like Harrenhal and the Riverlands to Littlefinger.

On 28.4.2018 at 6:11 PM, ToysoldierXIII said:

LF is full tinfoil I won't even bother with it here.

Like everyother suggestion you gave is much more tinfoil than LF, especially cersei and mance

Joffrey doesn't make sense for me, if he wanted to impress robert a short, or even faked, hunting trip would be the much better option, and i doubt he even wanted to impress robert.

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2 hours ago, Euron Lannister said:

Joffrey doesn't make sense for me, if he wanted to impress robert a short, or even faked, hunting trip would be the much better option, and i doubt he even wanted to impress robert.

Maybe impression wasn't true motive. He could hire catspaw to kill Bran just because Tyrion slapped him.

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On 28.4.2018 at 6:11 PM, ToysoldierXIII said:

Fan layouts of Winterfell show that the catspaw would have to set the fire, run down the stairs of the library tower, run across a giant, open football field sized yard, and up the stairs of the keep not only faster than humanly possible (from Cat's description of the incident) but also with no one seeing or questioning it and stopping him.

If some bookshelf in the library was ignited, the catspaw had much time till "long tongues of flame shot from the windows". With no one in the library to see the small initial fire, he had enough time to go to brans chamber, until the flames are seen.

On 28.4.2018 at 6:11 PM, ToysoldierXIII said:

Master-at-arms watching it? Mance is a ninja; this is very clear. No problem to sneak in and grab it. Asking for the knife would set off alarm bells. Means to Mance only.

Assuming there is a guarded box, it is unlikely Mance could search in it for valyrian steel. But if we assume the likely case, that chests with weapons and money(gold and silver) were placed into the king's tent/rooms, Joffrey and Cersei have easy access to it. For Mance on the other side it would be hard to get even near to the King's tent/rooms alone.

On 28.4.2018 at 6:11 PM, ToysoldierXIII said:

While weaken because why not is a serviceable motive a far more powerful one also exists, provided you buy into in-universe tinfoil – Bran, BR's replacement, was the reason. Mel is convinced BR is working with the Others. Mance is public enemy #1 of the Others and very familiar with BR and other wargs. Mance says he watched the Stark kids and their wolves while he was there. Goal from the get go or simply opportunistic who knows.

Mance can impossibly know Bran could become Bloodravens replacement. I doubt Bloodraven himself knew it certainly before Bran flew in the dream. Mance could notice Bran is a warg, but that enough is no reason to kill him. Besides, there is no need to use valyrian steel from the King, if you just want to kill Bran.

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I think that Joffrey did it to prove to himself that he was strong enough to do what was necessary, and do something that his father was incapable of.

As to the dagger, I think that while the dagger itself was likely unguarded, it would have been in the area where the royal family was sleeping, and that would have been well guarded.  Joffrey could come and go, obviously, but strangers such as Mance, probably not.

I seem to remember that the catspaw mentioned something about how it was a "mercy".  I don't think he came up with that on his own, which would indicate that whoever hired him did so after Bran's accident.  This tends to eliminate LF, and I would expect Mance to have been gone by then as well. Bran's fall was the day before their scheduled departure, so I would expect Mance would have learned everything useful to know.  And if he was predisposed to killing a Stark, why wait that long?  

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Why is LF tinfoil? Because he wasn't at Winterfell and didn't know about Bran's fall? He doesn't have to in order to be the puppet-master behind the operation. Consider:

Before Joff leaves King's Landing, LF pulls him aside and tells him how terrible it would be for Ned to become Hand; terrible for Cersei, Jaime, House Lannister and even Joff himself. Then he says the only thing that would prevent this is a great tragedy befalling House Stark, say, the sudden death of one of the children. Doesn't matter which one.

So Joff arrives at Winterfell with these thoughts/fears in mind, and when Bran does fall it would appear that the situation has resolved itself. But when Ned comes south anyway, Joff sends the catspaw to finish the job. In this way, we still have LF pulling the strings, but the target and the clumsy plan are all Joff. This also gives Joff a better motivation than what has been presented in text so far: naked self-interest.

And since it always comes up later, I'll add that LF is in no way trying to prevent Ned from becoming Hand -- he is just trying to get Joffrey to act. LF knows as well as Tyrion that if Robert wants Ned to be Hand, Ned will be Hand. But if not, well, there are plenty of ways to sow chaos in the realm through Jaime.

I think this also allows us to view Joffrey and Sansa's little ride along the Trident in a different light as well. With no news coming from Winterfell about Bran's death, he makes one last-ditch effort to kill a Stark child by getting her drunk and drowning her in the river, and at the same time untangling himself from a marriage that neither he nor his mother wants.

I'm sorry, but I'm not buying this in the least.  Why would Joffrey believe LF on this anyway?  He's a bully, not an idiot.  And Littlefinger isn't stupid enough to put any reliance on Joffrey to do anything, including keeping his mouth shut.  And while I doubt he would mention the murder stuff (or be believed),, his parents, or whoever he asked, might wonder why Littlefinger is presenting Ned as a threat.

Besides, at this point, Joffrey is more of a bully who likes to throw his weight around than any kind of evil incarnate.  I doubt he would even have had it in him to commit cold-blooded murder, at least then.  Plus, he is getting a good-looking, sweet, well-mannered fiancee.  Everything a boy could ask for.  Why ruin it?

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3 hours ago, Kandrax said:

Maybe impression wasn't true motive. He could hire catspaw to kill Bran just because Tyrion slapped him.

I think this is right on Joff's part. Tyrion and Joff clearly have a history in AGOT and it's developed further as we go along. It's just so Joff to want to go after a more difficult target in Tyrion (a cripple) instead going for the easy target of Bran (a cripple with whom Tyrion sympathizes).

ACOK Sansa I

When they told him that Robb had been proclaimed King in the North, his rage had been a fearsome thing, and he had sent Ser Boros to beat her.

@ToysoldierXIII

If GRRM said it's Joff, I have to go with Joff. But you've pointed out a lot of the reasons why I think we've only been told part of the story and a few others I've not considered like how if it was just Joff, no one was there ensure the catspaw carried things out rather than just run off and disappear. We know Joff was easily influenced and manipulated. I do suspect Mance influenced Joff.

To make muddy waters even muddier, @Walda pointed out a connection to Illyrio and I suggested a possibility in turn. I think the Illyrio connection has a lot of merit, Gerion or not. The well from which Illyrio and Varys arose strongly recalls the Winterfell library and Arya overheard Bran's assassination attempt brought up. Note the Well's connection to fire.

AGOT Tyrion I

Outside, Tyrion swallowed a lungful of the cold morning air and began his laborious descent of the steep stone steps that corkscrewed around the exterior of the library tower. It was slow going; the steps were cut high and narrow, while his legs were short and twisted. The rising sun had not yet cleared the walls of Winterfell, but the men were already hard at it in the yard below. Sandor Clegane's rasping voice drifted up to him. "The boy is a long time dying. I wish he would be quicker about it."

 

AGOT Arya III

From somewhere far below her, she heard noises. The scrape of boots, the distant sound of voices. A flickering light brushed the wall ever so faintly, and she saw that she stood at the top of a great black well, a shaft twenty feet across plunging deep into the earth. Huge stones had been set into the curving walls as steps, circling down and down, dark as the steps to hell that Old Nan used to tell them of. And something was coming up out of the darkness, out of the bowels of the earth …

Arya peered over the edge and felt the cold black breath on her face. Far below, she saw the light of a single torch, small as the flame of a candle. Two men, she made out. Their shadows writhed against the sides of the well, tall as giants. She could hear their voices, echoing up the shaft.

 

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My money is still on Joff. The whole "it'd be a mercy" thing seems like a twisted rationale that he would employ. 

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

Besides, at this point, Joffrey is more of a bully who likes to throw his weight around than any kind of evil incarnate.  I doubt he would even have had it in him to commit cold-blooded murder, at least then. 

We as the reader think of Joffrey as a spoilt prince (at this point in the story), but in hindsight it seems like it is him testing the water so to speak, to see what he can get away with. Cersei and Jaime are the prime suspects at this point. As for what to do with the catspaw after he killed Bran? Likely Joff would have ordered the Hound to kill him, or he would have thought paying him off would have been good enough. 

There is ONE reason that I do not suspect Cersei: she never thinks about a catspaw or sending someone to kill Bran in her chapters. She's constantly thinking about her past: the prophecy, her childhood growing up learning from Tywin. Most of all, she thinks about anything to do with Jaime - them growing up together, their relationship through the years, how he'll react when he finds out about her other lovers. Surely having caught her and Jaime together, Bran would have popped into her head if she sent an assassin to kill him, successful or not.

Littlefinger is too far away and this is such a specific scenario for him to plan for. And I don't believe Mance would try to kill a cripple boy for no reason - it doesn't benefit him at all. I mean, he's already a cripple, it's not like he can fight against the Wildlings in the future and it's easy to assume he can't further the Stark line if he does wake up. Bran's no threat to anyone. Which is why the "mercy" angle seems most likely.

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20 hours ago, Nevets said:

I'm sorry, but I'm not buying this in the least.  Why would Joffrey believe LF on this anyway?  He's a bully, not an idiot.  And Littlefinger isn't stupid enough to put any reliance on Joffrey to do anything, including keeping his mouth shut.  And while I doubt he would mention the murder stuff (or be believed),, his parents, or whoever he asked, might wonder why Littlefinger is presenting Ned as a threat.

Besides, at this point, Joffrey is more of a bully who likes to throw his weight around than any kind of evil incarnate.  I doubt he would even have had it in him to commit cold-blooded murder, at least then.  Plus, he is getting a good-looking, sweet, well-mannered fiancee.  Everything a boy could ask for.  Why ruin it?

Littlefinger has subsequently shown how he can influence Joffrey in exactly this way, not by simply telling him what he must do but by mixing lies and truth to appeal to his fears and vanities to get his acquiescence. He would rely on Joffrey to act and to keep his mouth shut in the same way he relies on Luwin finding a secret message in a false bottom of an ordinary box left in his chambers. If Joff does get caught and does give up LF, he can always claim he was merely explaining things as he saw them, never imagining in his wildest dreams that the prince would do something like this...

Would Joffrey commit murder at this point? I think so. And I certainly don't put it past him to pay someone else to do it.

And my impression is that he is not overly impressed with anything Stark-related, including Sansa. I imagine by now he's gotten an earful from his mother and uncle/father about what simple rubes they are, and he may even have overheard conversations between the two of them about the danger Ned poses as Hand.

9 hours ago, Mat92 said:

Littlefinger is too far away and this is such a specific scenario for him to plan for.

Like I posted above, LF does not need to know anything that's happened at Winterfell to be behind it.

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On 4/28/2018 at 0:11 PM, ToysoldierXIII said:

Time to re-visit this since we still have a good decade until we see Winter.

Haha as long as it’s coming!

But I have to say, I agree LF is silly, and Jof makes no sense for a few reasons, and despite what GRRM may have alluded to so far, I can’t believe he sent the assassin.

First, the idea that Jof does anything out of mercy is ludacris... the idea he did it to impress someone even more so. He doesn’t brag about it, and given the shit he says to Sansa that should be enough evidence. (I completely agree about the V-Steel line being about Ice and seeing Ned executed, it makes way more sense).

Cersei is a possibility I suppose, although her own POV seems to show it wasn’t her.

You laid out most of the details well, I would add just a little more about Mance.

When Mance returned from Winterfell he immediatly gathers all the Wildlings in the Frost Fangs to dig for something (possibly the Horn of Jorramun, but we know they unearthed many graves). He also appears with Val and her sister... although it’s unclear where they came from.

The Burned Library in Winterfell contained old books and Valyrian scrolls dating way back, could something there have lead Mance to the Frostfangs?

The assassin was Blonde, Val is blonde... could there be a connection?

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1 minute ago, Euron Lannister said:

why?

after all he benefited by far the most

He took advantage of the following situation... but it’s very hard to believe he had a hand in sending the assassin himself.

Little Finger wasn’t in Winterfell...

So he would have had to receive a raven telling him Bran fell and then sent back an assassin by raven, with orders to break into the King’s armory wagon and steel a particular dagger so he can get caught with it... except that no-one was s’posed to be there, so shit... he was supposed to kill Bran and leave the dagger! Because that wouldn’t have been suspicious! Wait though, at the same time, the assassin decided he’d bring his bag of silver with him and keep it in the stables...

doesnt make sense, and that’s assuming there would even be time for news and assasins to fly across Westeros. Not to mention people in Winterfell saw him around for weeks.

But wait, let’s say the assassin was already there! Just communicating with LF by bird. Then where did the bag of silver come from? The employer was there to give it to him.

And what about the Library? The assassin didn’t come up with the plan himself... thus he says no one was s’posed to be there... it wasn’t supposed to go down like that... he was following orders. Likely orders from whoever set the fire, but it makes no sense that Little Finger is setting up detailed distractions and spur of the moment assasinations from across the continent.

Clearly, I lean toward Mance...

Side note, IMO maybe the most damning thing, LittleFinger never makes any reference to it witty, subtle, mocking or otherwise... that’s just not his nature, he’s always rubbing shit in.

From a storytelling perspective one would also hope the person responsible for sending the assassin would be identified before the assasination attempt. Of course Littlefinger isn’t introduced until after. Mance is mentioned in the first chapter.

But anyway... silly...

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47 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Little Finger wasn’t in Winterfell...

So he would have had to receive a raven telling him Bran fell and then sent back an assassin by raven, with orders to break into the King’s armory wagon and steel a particular dagger so he can get caught with it... except that no-one was s’posed to be there, so shit... he was supposed to kill Bran and leave the dagger! Because that wouldn’t have been suspicious! Wait though, at the same time, the assassin decided he’d bring his bag of silver with him and keep it in the stables...

doesnt make sense, and that’s assuming there would even be time for news and assasins to fly across Westeros. Not to mention people in Winterfell saw him around for weeks.

But wait, let’s say the assassin was already there! Just communicating with LF by bird. Then where did the bag of silver come from? The employer was there to give it to him.

Why do you think LF even needed to know about Bran being crippled, he could have sended the catspaw to kill a (younger) stark child, with a silly plan and a dagger that will lead to he king's companios, which would make the starks think it was a lannister, thanks to lysas letter and the mistrust that was seeded.

the silly plan would make the catspaw be captured, the starks will find the dagger and the game begins.

Bran was simply the most easy target so he was chosen as victim.

Edit: also why should Littlefinger lie about whos dagger it is, when he had nothing to do with it?

47 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Likely orders from whoever set the fire, but it makes no sense that Little Finger is setting up detailed distractions and spur of the moment assasinations from across the continent.

the catspaw burned the libary himself, there is no need for a second man.

47 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

But anyway... silly...

Well thats what i think about this Mance theories.

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15 hours ago, Euron Lannister said:

Why do you think LF even needed to know about Bran being crippled, he could have sended the catspaw to kill a (younger) stark child, with a silly plan and a dagger that will lead to he king's companios, which would make the starks think it was a lannister, thanks to lysas letter and the mistrust that was seeded.

So you are suggesting he sent a man, who decided to take his bag of silver with him on a suicide mission, to travel to Winterfell, steal back his own dagger from the King’s armory, kill a “younger Stark”, get caught with the dagger.... and then what?

The assassin expected to escape, since he left the silver in the stable. And the fact that it is there at all implies he was paid in Winterfell... otherwise why bring it all in a dangerous job. 

Had Ned or Cat done the smart thing and asked the King it would have come out immediately that it was Petyr’s dagger... He lies about it to cause trouble sure but also to stop this very thing from happening.

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the silly plan would make the catspaw be captured, the starks will find the dagger and the game begins.

This doesn’t fit with the details... no one was s’posed to be there, the distraction fire, the silver still in the stables. The plan wasn’t to be caught, what kind of plan would that be.

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Bran was simply the most easy target so he was chosen as victim.

Why would LF send a man to steal his own dagger and use it to kill a Stark? He tries to cover up that it’s his dagger later, why would he have planned to use it in the first place?

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Edit: also why should Littlefinger lie about whos dagger it is, when he had nothing to do with it?

Because it was his dagger and the King would know that. By implicating the Lannisters Ned no longer feels confident he can take it to the King.

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the catspaw burned the libary himself, there is no need for a second man.

Maybe, but the silver being in the stable implies he was paid there and expected to survive...

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Well thats what i think about this Mance theories.

We are all entitled to our opinions!

15 hours ago, Kandrax said:

Came on people, Joffrey sent Catspaw. Martin said that mystery of dagger will be revealed in third book. Both Mance and LF theories are weak.

And then in Storm:

The wall can stop an army but not a single blade... Note the mention of the baggage train where the dagger was, the freeriders where the assassin came from, and the Stark children... throw in that the assassin was blonde and Mance returned North to dig in the Frostfangs and gather the Wildlings to attack the Wall with Val who is also blonde... and it may be the answer to who sent the assassin and burned the Library.

Mance had reason to steal a Valyrian dagger, and may well have only given it to the assassin to use to stir up trouble south of the wall after Bran’s fall.

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The Wall can stop an army, but not a man alone. I took a lute and a bag of silver, scaled the ice near Long Barrow, walked a few leagues south of the New Gift, and bought a horse. All in all I made much better time than Robert, who was traveling with a ponderous great wheelhouse to keep his queen in comfort. A day south of Winterfell I came up on him and fell in with his company. Freeriders and hedge knights are always attaching themselves to royal processions, in hopes of finding service with the king, and my lute gained me easy acceptance." He laughed. "I know every bawdy song that's ever been made, north or south of the Wall. So there you are. The night your father feasted Robert, I sat in the back of his hall on a bench with the other freeriders, listening to Orland of Oldtown play the high harp and sing of dead kings beneath the sea. I betook of your lord father's meat and mead, had a look at Kingslayer and Imp . . . and made passing note of Lord Eddard's children and the wolf pups that ran at their heels."

 

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2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

So you are suggesting he sent a man, who decided to take his bag of silver with him on a suicide mission, to travel to Winterfell, steal back his own dagger from the King’s armory, kill a “younger Stark”, get caught with the dagger.... and then what?

 

No, he didn't need to do any of that. He simply filled Joffrey's head with all kinds of BS about how bad it would be for Ned to become hand and that the only thing preventing it would be the sudden death of a Stark child. From then on it was all Joffrey: the plan, the catspaw, the dagger...

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20 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

No, he didn't need to do any of that. He simply filled Joffrey's head with all kinds of BS about how bad it would be for Ned to become hand and that the only thing preventing it would be the sudden death of a Stark child. From then on it was all Joffrey: the plan, the catspaw, the dagger...

So they wait until after Ned is already on his way to King’s Landing? When his son being in a coma didn’t keep him in Winterfell? 

Why would Jof leave an assassin behind with both payment and a unique dagger stolen from the king?

Not only that, but are you suggesting LF encouraged Jof to use a dagger the King would know once belonged to LF? One he would know had been stolen from his own armory? Or are you suggesting Jof decided his assassin needed to be armed from the kings own armory... because? Doesn’t make sense

Of everyone Jof hates, he sends an assassin after Bran? But not after anyone else?

Not to mention, why? The motive here for both LF and Jof is insanely weak

It’s silly

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2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

So they wait until after Ned is already on his way to King’s Landing? When his son being in a coma didn’t keep him in Winterfell? 

Why would Jof leave an assassin behind with both payment and a unique dagger stolen from the king?

Not only that, but are you suggesting LF encouraged Jof to use a dagger the King would know once belonged to LF? One he would know had been stolen from his own armory? Or are you suggesting Jof decided his assassin needed to be armed from the kings own armory... because? Doesn’t make sense

Of everyone Jof hates, he sends an assassin after Bran? But not after anyone else?

Not to mention, why? The motive here for both LF and Jof is insanely weak

It’s silly

When Bran fell, it would seem to Joff that the problem had resolved itself. When Ned came south anyway, Joff sent the CP in a last ditch effort to change his mind. Accidentally falling from a tower is one thing, cold-blooded murder is quite another.

Joff is an idiot. As Tyrion surmised, he probably thought the whole plan was the height of cleverness.

LF didn't have to mention the dagger or the CP at all. That was all Joff's doing. And Joff thought it was just a plain dagger (in his own words, dragonbone is "too plain"). If not from the royal armory, where else is the crown prince supposed to acquire a dagger without anyone else knowing about it?

Comatose Bran is the easiest target at this point. Earlier, he may very well have been planning an "accident" when he challenged Robb to duel with live steel. Later, on the Trident, he may have been planning another one for Sansa.

The motive for LF is as it always has been, to sow discord between wolf and lion so as to ratchet up the chaos in the realm. For Joffrey, he thinks he is doing this to protect his dad, his mum, uncle, house, perhaps even the realm, but mostly himself.

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