Assuming the blackfyre theory was correct when do you think Viserys was to die?

[Varysblackfyre321]

Was it immediately after having inflamed the passions of Drogo by the poison attempt or in the invasion? Would you see Jorah's carelessness of his charge's welfare as indication of Illaryio putting more care for Dany's or simply Jorah's utter obsession with the girl?

[chrisdaw]

Not something that needed planning, they can make that call on the fly when his living becomes too inconvenient/annoying. Illyrio said he expected Dany would probably die, no reason to doubt him. 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

17 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Was it immediately after having inflamed the passions of Drogo by the poison attempt or in the invasion? Would you see Jorah's carelessness of his charge's welfare as indication of Illaryio putting more care for Dany's or simply Jorah's utter obsession with the girl?

Viserys died when he was suppose to , after the poisoning attempt when he was no longer needed .Drogo would have died after the invasion .

[Lord Varys]

I don't think Viserys III was supposed to be deposed of before the invasion. That makes little sense in light of the fact that the Golden Company apparently expected to fight with Viserys III and his Dothraki, and it is a huge stretch to assume that Illyrio/Varys (or anyone, really) foresaw the hold Dany developed over Drogo. It was a huge success on her part that Drogo decided to invade Westeros on behalf of their unborn son.

If Dany had remained the weak girl she was in the beginning there may not have been a Dothraki invasion after Viserys III's death, poisoning plot, or not. In that sense, the plan apparently was to use the poisoning plot as another motivational layer for Drogo to fulfill the promise he made to Viserys III.

Also keep in mind that Drogo made his 'deal' with Viserys III, not Illyrio Mopatis (he just helped with it), the Golden Company, or Prince Aegon.

In that sense, the time to rid the world of Viserys III would actually have been rather late - only after he and his Dothraki had destroyed or severely weakened the opposition to a Targaryen restoration in Westeros. Viserys III and the Dothraki would have prepared the Realm to see Prince Aegon as the savior to rebuild the Realm. Aegon would have been the Jaehaerys I to Viserys III's Maegor the Cruel.

Viserys III was the last male scion of House Targaryen left whose identity could not be questioned. He was the perfect tool to rally people to the dragon banner, although definitely not the guy you want managing a kingdom after the ugly parts of the restoration are over.

Whether the plan would have been to have Aegon accompany his royal uncle to Westeros or not is completely unclear at this point. One assumes that Viserys III would have had to make his his heir presumptive and vouch for his identity, etc. but I don't think they would have allowed Aegon to participate directly in his uncle's misrule or take any blame for the things the Dothraki did, etc.

When exactly Viserys III would have to go would have been likely completely unclear in the plans. It would depend when exactly he had become expendable and when exactly it would have been easy/best for Aegon to take the reins of power. That depends on a lot of factors, especially on how the war in Westeros would have gone. Killing King Viserys III during a time when the Targaryen cause in Westeros was under fire from all sides and on the verge of failing wouldn't have looked like a great idea, for instance.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

I don't think Varys/Illryio ever had concrete planned date of when to off Viserys. They simply put things into motion and adapt their plans as things unfold. So far it seems to be working. 

[The Commentator]

9 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Not something that needed planning, they can make that call on the fly when his living becomes too inconvenient/annoying. Illyrio said he expected Dany would probably die, no reason to doubt him. 

At this point, it doesn't matter what Ilyrio was planning.  Daenerys hatched the dragons and that makes her the most important person on that planet.  Illyrio is no longer controlling the board because Daenerys chooses her own path and there is nothing Illyrio can do about it.  She is now the master player of the cyvasse board and it is Illyrio who is being played.  Daenerys took his ships and repurposed them for her own goals.  She also took the bodyguards that he sent and won over their absolute loyalties.  

[Lord Lannister]

I always thought that while Aegon was the primary plan initially, once Viserys and Daenerys managed to live so long and fell into Illiryo's influence, they shifted the focus to them as they were unquestionable Targaryen heirs and fAegon was put on the backburner just in case.

[Leonardo]

I think the idea was always to marry Daenerys to Faegon at one point to solidify the Blackfyre claim. Then she was more valuable as a bargaining chip.

[Megorova]

I think, that in the beginning Varys and Illyrio had one plan, but as the time went on, they altered that plan multiple times, to include changes that were happening.

In my opinion, the original plan was something like this: Viserys was a mere marionette, and Dany was even less than that. She was just a bargaining chip, a merchandise for sale, not a game player, or even chess piece. The deal went like this - they give Dany to Drogo, and in exchange for that, he gives them military support of his Khalasar. The one who arranged that deal with Dothraki was Illyrio, thus even if/when Viserys will die, the one to whom Drogo is indebted is Illyrio, so Viserys' death doesn't change anything. Thus Viserys' death was part of the original plan, from the very beginning. And they (Varys and Illyrio) also expected that Dany too will die, because she was a weakling, both physically and mentally. So they didn't expected, that she will become something more, that just a tool of their trade with Dothraki. 

But instead of dying, or staying to be no one, Dany became stronger. She even opposed her own brother, and managed to make Drogo to fall in love/lust with her. So Illyrio and Varys altered their original plan, and decided to make Dany one of their chess pieces. Though the part of the plan with Viserys' death kept going unchanged. They have sent Jorah and Doreah to Vaes Dothrak, to assure that Viserys will get himself killed. There were a few clues thru Dany's chapters, that Doreah was working for Illyrio (for example how she intentionally misphrased what Dany said, and instead of telling to Viserys, that Dany invited him to have dinner together, she said that Dany is ordering him to come to her, etc.)

So after first (unchanged) part of their plan was executed (Viserys' death), they moved to the next part, a new addition to their plan. Now Dany and Drogo were both supposed to join fAegon and Golden Company, during invasion of Westeros. Illyrio was planning to use Drogo's love for Dany and their baby (poisoning attempt was part of their plan, but the goal of it was not to kill Dany, it was to make Drogo to go against King Robert, and invade Westeros), and Dany's nostalgia for her family, to make them support fAegon's claim of Iron Throne. Maybe later they planned to make Drogo die, and Dany to remarry with fAegon, to strengthen his claim, or maybe they planned to leave that as it was (Dany, wife of Drogo, not his widow, that should remarry with fAegon). But then Drogo died, and thus they lost their access to Dothraki. At that point in time, Dany was useless to them. But then her dragons hatched, and the plan was altered again.

According to this new plan, Dany and her dragons were supposed to join fAegon. Dany was supposed to give aid of her dragons to fAegon, and also to become his wife, which would have strengthened his claim of Iron Throne.

But when, istead of going back to Illyrio, where he would have revealed to her information about her surviving nephew, Dany went to Astapor, they again had to change their plans. Now they expected, that after she will conquer Slaver's Bay, she will bring her armies to join with Golden Company, and they will invade Westeros together. But when Dany didn't departed from Meereen, and instead settled there as its Queen, they had to change their plan again, and this time the one who did that change was fAegon himself. Without waiting for Illyrio's new orders, he went to Westeros alone, without Dany, her troops, or her dragons.

So back to OP - when exactly was Viserys supposed to die? - Sometime after arrival to Vaes Dothrak, after Dany was officially introduced to dosh khaleen. Because those crones would have confirmed that the deal is closed - Drogo got Dany, now she was officially accepted by all Dothraki of Vaes Dothrak as Drogo's Khaleesi, and member of his Khalasar, one of Dothraki now. Thus this would have been confirmation, that Illyrio's part of their deal was done, according to their agreement. Thus now it was Drogo's turn to hold his part of the deal - to give military support to Illyrio. The deal was between Drogo and Illyrio, not Drogo and Viserys, or Drogo and Targaryens, and not between other Dothraki and Illyrio. So without Drogo, the deal with Dothraki was offed.

[Lost Melnibonean]

@Lord Varys lays out the issues pretty nicely. We know that Illyrio expected Viserys to remain with him in Pentos, and that he told the Golden Company Viserys would join them with a Dothraki horde at his back. Assuming that Aegon is Daemon Blackfyre's heir, I think we can assume that Illyrio expected Viserys to accept an offer he could not refuse... To recognize Aegon as his king and support him, perhaps in exchange for Dragonstone or Dorne, or sleep with Luca Brasi and the fishes at the bottom of the Bay of Pentos. 

[Megorova]

9 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

We know that Illyrio expected Viserys to remain with him in Pentos

That was reversed psychology. Illyrio manipulated Viserys into going with Drogo and Dany to Vaes Dothrak. Illyrio and Jorah both made Viserys think, that if he won't go with them, then they will leave him with nothing, and won't pay him back, what they have promised him, according to their agreement.

12 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

and that he told the Golden Company Viserys would join them with a Dothraki horde at his back.

That was intended for ears of fAegon (who at that time still thought that he's a real Targaryen), JonCon, and other possible supporters of Targaryens, both in Essos and in Westeros. At that point in time, Blackfyres (Varys and Illyrio) still had to pretend, that they support Targaryens, and thus they had to play their part, and pretend that they are on Viserys' side.

If they have told the truth to people from Golden Company, that they plan to kill Viserys, nevertheless after that Dothraki will still join their forces with Golden Company, because it wasn't a matter whether Viserys will be conqueror in that invasion, or whether it will be fAegon, what mattered is that according to that agreement, Dothraki were obliged to give their aid in that invasion, to whoever Illyrio will point them, so if that information (Illyrio's real intentions) would have became widely known among members of Golden Company, then most likely that information would have also eventually reached JonCon and lords of 7K.

Thus it would have been suspicious to them, what are Illyrio's real motives, and whether he is really a Targaryen loyalist, even though he let one of Targaryens to be killed. So when Illyrio informed Golden Company, that Dothraki and Viserys Targaryen will join forces with Golden Company, it was just him, playing his part, for the bigger audience - people that will want to support Targaryens, and their claim of Iron Throne.

[Lost Melnibonean]

17 hours ago, Megorova said:

That was reversed psychology. Illyrio manipulated Viserys into going with Drogo and Dany to Vaes Dothrak. Illyrio and Jorah both made Viserys think, that if he won't go with them, then they will leave him with nothing, and won't pay him back, what they have promised him, according to their agreement.

I tell you what I'm going to do... I'm going to tell my 12 year-old son to play Fortnite all night long to get him to turn off the game and go to bed (he has to wake up early fo a baseball game)...

Nope, he gave me a huge grin and said, "Really?!" 

Maybe it only works on the blood of the dragon... or with king's blood. 

[Faera]

I was always under the impression that they were always planning on using Viserys’s invasion to disrupt the kingdom and his own instability to weaken the realm further. Knowing how unstable he was, and the fact he was going to be invading with a Dothraki army who he had little to no control over, the idea was to feed so much discontent with the people that Aegon arriving with the Golden Company would seem like a saviour. It’s a bit of a convoluted plan - hence why Varys has had to change it so many times because it relies so much on getting, essentially, a popular uprising for Aegon and the GC (the latter of whom needed some good PR since veterans of the last Blackfyre Rebellion are still alive).

Either way, Viserys was going to invade, muck up the peace of Robert’s reign and get ousted by the more pleasant Aegon. Then theJoffrey and Lannisters managed to make things unpalatable anyway - so Viserys’s death meant Varys shifted his focus to driving a wedge between the Lannisters. Thing with Varys is he was always adapting the plan but the end goal was always Aegon.

[Megorova]

10 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I tell you what I'm going to do... I'm going to tell my 12 year-old son to play Fortnite all night long to get him to turn off the game and go to bed one has to wake up early fo a baseball game...

Nope, he gave me a huge grin and said, "Really?!" 

Maybe it only works on the blood of the dragon... or with king's blood. 

That's not reverse psychology.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_psychology

"Reverse psychology is a technique involving the advocacy of a belief or behavior that is opposite to the one desired, with the expectation that this approach will encourage the subject of the persuasion to do what actually is desired: the opposite of what is suggested. This technique relies on the psychological phenomenon of reactance, in which a person has a negative emotional reaction to being persuaded, and thus chooses the option which is being advocated against. The one being manipulated is usually unaware of what is really going on."

"Classic examples of reverse psychology in popular culture include a large, bright red button with a sign next to it saying "Do not push" "

"There are numerous examples of reverse psychology in fiction, cinema, and cartoons, including William Shakespeare's Julius Caesar where Mark Antony uses reverse psychology to get the town's people to cause a riot."

"in Poe's "The Cask of Amontillado", Montresor uses reverse psychology to persuade Fortunato to enter his vaults. He says that Fortunato is too tired and should get some rest, and that he should find someone else to help him with his problem. Montresor knew that Fortunato would disagree and insist on entering the vault."

https://www.wikihow.com/Use-Reverse-Psychology

Quote

Reverse psychology refers to getting another person to do or say something by telling them the opposite of what is desired. It can be very successful in advertising, and may be helpful when dealing with certain types of people.

Obviously that Viserys was one of those types.

This is how they tricked him:

Quote

“I have told you, all is settled. Trust me. The khal has promised you a crown, and you shall have it.”

“Yes, but when?”

“When the khal chooses,” Illyrio said. “He will have the girl first, and after they are wed he must make his procession across the plains and present her to the dosh khaleen at Vaes Dothrak. After that, perhaps. If the omens favor war.”

Viserys seethed with impatience. “I piss on Dothraki omens. The Usurper sits on my father’s throne. How long must I wait?”

Illyrio gave a massive shrug. “You have waited most of your life, great king. What is another few months, another few years?”

Ser Jorah, who had traveled as far east as Vaes Dothrak, nodded in agreement. “I counsel you to be patient, Your Grace. The Dothraki are true to their word, but they do things in their own time. A lesser man may beg a favor from the khal, but must never presume to berate him.”

Viserys bristled. “Guard your tongue, Mormont, or I’ll have it out. I am no lesser man, I am the rightful Lord of the Seven Kingdoms. The dragon does not beg.”

Ser Jorah lowered his eyes respectfully. Illyrio smiled enigmatically and tore a wing from the duck.

Quote

Magister Illyrio had urged him to wait in Pentos, had offered him the hospitality of his manse, but Viserys would have none of it. He would stay with Drogo until the debt had been paid, until he had the crown he had been promised.

They intentionally made him think, that Dothraki are unreliable barbarians, and that if Viserys personally won't be overseeing things, and spurring Drogo on, then he may not only never get his crown, he may also never see his sister again (and it's not like he cared about Dany, or loved her, more like she was his last valuable possession, and he gave her away to get a crown, not to be tricked into letting her go for free).

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 hours ago, Faera said:

I was always under the impression that they were always planning on using Viserys’s invasion to disrupt the kingdom and his own instability to weaken the realm further. Knowing how unstable he was, and the fact he was going to be invading with a Dothraki army who he had little to no control over, the idea was to feed so much discontent with the people that Aegon arriving with the Golden Company would seem like a saviour. It’s a bit of a convoluted plan - hence why Varys has had to change it so many times because it relies so much on getting, essentially, a popular uprising for Aegon and the GC (the latter of whom needed some good PR since veterans of the last Blackfyre Rebellion are still alive).

Either way, Viserys was going to invade, muck up the peace of Robert’s reign and get ousted by the more pleasant Aegon. Then theJoffrey and Lannisters managed to make things unpalatable anyway - so Viserys’s death meant Varys shifted his focus to driving a wedge between the Lannisters. Thing with Varys is he was always adapting the plan but the end goal was always Aegon.

Would it be wiser to give a rival a bigger army and a head start, or to bend him to your rule and take his power as your own? 

[Lost Melnibonean]

40 minutes ago, Megorova said:

That's not reverse psychology.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_psychology

"Reverse psychology is a technique involving the advocacy of a belief or behavior that is opposite to the one desired, with the expectation that this approach will encourage the subject of the persuasion to do what actually is desired: the opposite of what is suggested. This technique relies on the psychological phenomenon of reactance, in which a person has a negative emotional reaction to being persuaded, and thus chooses the option which is being advocated against. The one being manipulated is usually unaware of what is really going on."

"Classic examples of reverse psychology in popular culture include a large, bright red button with a sign next to it saying "Do not push" "

"There are numerous examples of reverse psychology in fiction, cinema, and cartoons, including William Shakespeare's Julius Caesar where Mark Antony uses reverse psychology to get the town's people to cause a riot."

"in Poe's "The Cask of Amontillado", Montresor uses reverse psychology to persuade Fortunato to enter his vaults. He says that Fortunato is too tired and should get some rest, and that he should find someone else to help him with his problem. Montresor knew that Fortunato would disagree and insist on entering the vault."

https://www.wikihow.com/Use-Reverse-Psychology

Obviously that Viserys was one of those types.

This is how they tricked him:

They intentionally made him think, that Dothraki are unreliable barbarians, and that if Viserys personally won't be overseeing things, and spurring Drogo on, then he may not only never get his crown, he may also never see his sister again (and it's not like he cared about Dany, or loved her, more like she was his last valuable possession, and he gave her away to get a crown, not to be tricked into letting her go for free).

I disagree...

Quote

Her brother was miserable out here. He ought never have come. Magister Illyrio had urged him to wait in Pentos, had offered him the hospitality of his manse, but Viserys would have none of it. He would stay with Drogo until the debt had been paid, until he had the crown he had been promised. "And if he tries to cheat me, he will learn to his sorrow what it means to wake the dragon," Viserys had vowed, laying a hand on his borrowed sword. Illyrio had blinked at that and wished him good fortune.

Daenerys III, Game 23

Quote

"In the game of thrones, even the humblest pieces can have wills of their own. Sometimes they refuse to make the moves you've planned for them."

Alayne I, Feast 23

Quote

"Magister Illyrio has protected me in the past. Strong Belwas says that he wept when he heard my brother was dead."

Daenerys I, Storm 8

[Faera]

28 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Would it be wiser to give a rival a bigger army and a head start, or to bend him to your rule and take his power as your own? 

Even if it's not what I would have done, it's still the impression I got at the end of ADwD. Presuming the Blackfyre theory is true, then they must have planned to utilise Aegon at some point. Even if he is the real Aegon, the moment they bring him into play Viserys's claim to the throne melts away, which would necessitate disposing of Viserys and maybe Daenerys too. She only really because worth anything more to them than marriage fodder once she got dragons. 

[Megorova]

45 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I disagree...

Daenerys III, Game 23

Alayne I, Feast 23

Daenerys I, Storm 8

I know that you disagree

You just don't see, where's the manipulation in there, that Illyrio used against Viserys.

Viserys was too stupid to avoid Illyrio's manipulations. His own will was exceptionally bendable. The only thing, that he ever decided to do on his own, is when he tried to sneak into Dany's room, prior her wedding, to have sex with her. All the rest of his actions were result of other people manipulating him. Even how Jorah was introduced to Targaryens, also was one of Illyrio's manipulations, the point of which was to make them accept Jorah as their servant/Illyrio's spy.

And so what if Illyrio cried? It was fake tears, same as constant crying of Xaro Xhoan Daxos.

[Dorian Martell's son]

On 4/29/2018 at 9:43 PM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Was it immediately after having inflamed the passions of Drogo by the poison attempt or in the invasion? Would you see Jorah's carelessness of his charge's welfare as indication of Illaryio putting more care for Dany's or simply Jorah's utter obsession with the girl?

It doesn't matter when. They will be presenting (f)Aegon as the legit heir. Viserys could be done away with any time 

[Varysblackfyre321]

On May 4, 2018 at 1:54 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

@Lord Varys lays out the issues pretty nicely. We know that Illyrio expected Viserys to remain with him in Pentos, and that he told the Golden Company Viserys would join them with a Dothraki horde at his back. Assuming that Aegon is Daemon Blackfyre's heir, I think we can assume that Illyrio expected Viserys to accept an offer he could not refuse... To recognize Aegon as his king and support him, perhaps in exchange for Dragonstone or Dorne, or sleep with Luca Brasi and the fishes at the bottom of the Bay of Pentos. 

Illaryio basically sheltered Viserys for the majority of the young man's life. Do you honestly think Illaryio wouldn't realize just how being king is something that is intergal to Viserys' very identity? And that the man could settle for anything less? He's by no means the bravest man I'm sure but he lacks not for ego-if he would have taken the iron throne he'd see himself as unstoppable(well more so).