Assuming the blackfyre theory was correct when do you think Viserys was to die?

[Varysblackfyre321]

14 hours ago, Faera said:

they must have planned to utilise Aegon at some point. Even if he is the real Aegon, the moment they bring him into play Viserys's claim to the throne melts away,

Not so. King Aerys named Viserys his heir after Rheagar was announced dead; whether or not young griff is or is not Aegon, son of Rheagar, Viserys's claim to the throne still supercedes young griff's. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

On May 4, 2018 at 7:28 AM, Megorova said:

She was just a bargaining chip, a merchandise for sale, not a game player, or even chess piece. The deal went like this - they give Dany to Drogo, and in exchange for that, he gives them military support of his Khalasar. The one who arranged that deal with Dothraki was Illyrio, thus even if/when Viserys will die, the one to whom Drogo is indebted is Illyrio, so Viserys' death doesn't change anything.

It kinda seems as if Drogo wasn't really informed of the price for Daenarys; how could he stomach raising a son who'd be geared to kneel to a feminine looking man like Viserys. I simply don't think he could. If he was fully aware it's clear he didn't care and I imagine Illaryio would pick up on such, and wouldn't waste such valueble merchandise as Dany. I suspect Illaryio and Viserys meant to get him to come to Westeroes through enraging him through the failed suicide attempt.

On May 4, 2018 at 7:28 AM, Megorova said:

Thus Viserys' death was part of the original plan, from the very beginning. And they (Varys and Illyrio) also expected that Dany too will die, because she was a weakling, both physically and mentally. So they didn't expected, that she will become something more, that just a tool of their trade with Dothraki. 

I have to say I think selling Daenarys to the dothraki Varys and Illaryio hoped she would survive just long enough to become pregnant at the very least. The dothraki by themselves are no more real threat to Westeros than a squirrel is to a lion; they're havoc would devastate the small folk but they'd eventually be put down. But with a Targeyen at the helm...well great houses all would be tempted at least to hear Viserys's offer now, he'd already have the support of one realm and buy the alligence with another(the iron islands, or the reach). 

[Corvo the Crow]

As soon as he wreaks some havoc with 40000 Dothraki screamers to prove he lives up to his father the Mad King's legacy (f)Aegon comes and saves Westeros from him. (f)Aegon may even be declared to be Blackfyre, to show what benevolent and peaceful rulers Bfyres are, compared to Daeron's line of Dornish loving Targaryens.

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Illaryio basically sheltered Viserys for the majority of the young man's life. Do you honestly think Illaryio wouldn't realize just how being king is something that is intergal to Viserys' very identity? And that the man could settle for anything less? He's by no means the bravest man I'm sure but he lacks not for ego-if he would have taken the iron throne he'd see himself as unstoppable(well more so). 

Um... no...

Quote

For nigh on half a year, they had lived in the magister's house, eating his food, pampered by his servants.

...

They had wandered since then, from Braavos to Myr, from Myr to Tyrosh, and on to Qohor and Volantis and Lys, never staying long in any one place. Her brother would not allow it. The Usurper's hired knives were close behind them, he insisted, though Dany had never seen one.

At first the magisters and archons and merchant princes were pleased to welcome the last Targaryens to their homes and tables, but as the years passed and the Usurper continued to sit upon the Iron Throne, doors closed and their lives grew meaner. Years past they had been forced to sell their last few treasures, and now even the coin they had gotten from Mother's crown had gone. In the alleys and wine sinks of Pentos, they called her brother "the beggar king." Dany did not want to know what they called her.

Daenerys I, Game 3

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Not so. King Aerys named Viserys his heir after Rheagar was announced dead; whether or not young griff is or is not Aegon, son of Rheagar, Viserys's claim to the throne still supercedes young griff's. 

Says you, Viserys, a maester or three, and the dead Mad King.  Practically speaking, that proclamation, while apparently legal at the time it was made in the waning days of the war, probably was not widely known. Rhaegar was the heir apparent, and the realm would have recognized Aegon to have been Aerys's heir after his death. Viserys had no  power, other than the last proclamation of a defeated and soon to slain king, to enforce it. 

[Lord Varys]

On 4.5.2018 at 10:54 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

@Lord Varys lays out the issues pretty nicely. We know that Illyrio expected Viserys to remain with him in Pentos, and that he told the Golden Company Viserys would join them with a Dothraki horde at his back. Assuming that Aegon is Daemon Blackfyre's heir, I think we can assume that Illyrio expected Viserys to accept an offer he could not refuse... To recognize Aegon as his king and support him, perhaps in exchange for Dragonstone or Dorne, or sleep with Luca Brasi and the fishes at the bottom of the Bay of Pentos. 

The threat idea doesn't make a lot of sense in this context. As it happens, Viserys III ended up leaving Pentos with Khal Drogo. He would have returned to Pentos with Khal Drogo and the Dothraki screamers Drogo was sparing to help Viserys III to invade Westeros. Illyrio wouldn't have been exactly in a strong position in that context.

If Viserys III had remained at Pentos it may have been different, but there is actually no indication that Illyrio ever intended to present Aegon to Viserys before the man actually had something to offer to the Golden Company in the form of the Dothraki.

The way a man as Illyrio - who is actually smart and can play people - would have played this is more likely that he, the Golden Company, and Jon Connington (of whom Viserys III may still have some faint memories) would have sold Viserys the whole thing as a miracle story. Jon Connington, Rhaegar's ever loyal friend, has saved and hidden Rhaegar's son and only contacted him, Illyrio, recently, etc.

Together they had even a better chance of winning back the Iron Throne, and they would of course all be loyal to Viserys III, and gladly die for him, etc.

Threatening Viserys III would have made no sense - unless one assumes they could have controlled him completely the entire time. Which doesn't make any sense if you think about it a little bit. They would have gone to Westeros, where Viserys III would have talked to other Targaryen loyalists and men flocking to his banner, etc.

[Lost Melnibonean]

39 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The threat idea doesn't make a lot of sense in this context. As it happens, Viserys III ended up leaving Pentos with Khal Drogo. He would have returned to Pentos with Khal Drogo and the Dothraki screamers Drogo was sparing to help Viserys III to invade Westeros. Illyrio wouldn't have been exactly in a strong position in that context.

If Viserys III had remained at Pentos it may have been different, but there is actually no indication that Illyrio ever intended to present Aegon to Viserys before the man actually had something to offer to the Golden Company in the form of the Dothraki.

The way a man as Illyrio - who is actually smart and can play people - would have played this is more likely that he, the Golden Company, and Jon Connington (of whom Viserys III may still have some faint memories) would have sold Viserys the whole thing as a miracle story. Jon Connington, Rhaegar's ever loyal friend, has saved and hidden Rhaegar's son and only contacted him, Illyrio, recently, etc.

Together they had even a better chance of winning back the Iron Throne, and they would of course all be loyal to Viserys III, and gladly die for him, etc.

Threatening Viserys III would have made no sense - unless one assumes they could have controlled him completely the entire time. Which doesn't make any sense if you think about it a little bit. They would have gone to Westeros, where Viserys III would have talked to other Targaryen loyalists and men flocking to his banner, etc.

I think the threat would have been implied rather than explicit. 

[Faera]

9 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Not so. King Aerys named Viserys his heir after Rheagar was announced dead; whether or not young griff is or is not Aegon, son of Rheagar, Viserys's claim to the throne still supercedes young griff's. 

I sincerely doubt that would count for much in most people's minds.

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think the threat would have been implied rather than explicit. 

Viserys III Targaryen wouldn't have understood an implicit threat.

But tell me, how do you envision such a thing happening if Drogo and his screamers were to be around Viserys at that time?

That wouldn't have worked.

Illyrio and the Golden Company and Connington would have needed Viserys III to want to work with them - and considering how desperate the man was he would have been mad with happiness had he realized that his nephew was still alive and the Golden Company was joining him with another 10,000 men.

The issue of the succession would have only arisen after they had retaken the throne - and Viserys III should have been happy with another male heir while he was neither wed nor had fathered a son of his own body.

And if Viserys III had felt threatened then everything could have collapsed because Drogo and the screamers may have sided with him rather than the fat man and the lad neither of them knew - not to mention that Viserys III may have had the chance to have people ending up being loyal to him remove Connington/Aegon/whoever from the equation.

I mean, if you felt you were threatened by people who pretended to be your friends you would remember that, right?

The best way to think about that seems to be that Prince Aegon would have been for Viserys III the same kind of presumptive heir Prince Viserys (and his sons) were for King Aegon III. Spares who could continue the dynasty if need be but not necessarily threats to his own rule.

Or at least that's how they would have sold the thing to Viserys III.

[Varysblackfyre321]

10 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Says you, Viserys, a maester or three, and the dead Mad King.  Practically speaking, that proclamation, while apparently legal at the time it was made in the waning days of the war, probably was not widely known. Rhaegar was the heir apparent, and the realm would have recognized Aegon to have been Aerys's heir after his death. Viserys had no  power, other than the last proclamation of a defeated and soon to slain king, to enforce it. 

Says the law as well. Whether or not Aerys was on the cusp of being defeated it was still within his powers as king to declare whomever he wanted as his heir, he could have made it dying in his sick bed or when he was at the best state of his life; it doesn't matter.  He chose Viserys thus Viserys is the lawful heir of Aerys. The realm would likely felt at least little conflicted; primogeniture is the standard and I would think there would be those who'd push/support Aegon in usurping his uncle's throne(the Martells in particular, if Viserys reneged on the marriage agreement between him and them)although there likely would be other ambitious houses as well) but it wouldn't a unanimous uproar or close to one in allowing Aegon to pass up his uncle regardless of the will. And really, Viserys merely needs to point to the treatment Aerys gave him and Aegon in the final days to show Aerys truly wanted Viserys to succeed him; he kept little Aegon a hostage to compel Dorne's loyalty while shipping his true heir off to safety. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

4 hours ago, Faera said:

I sincerely doubt that would count for much in most people's minds.

Why not? You don't think there'd be this understanding of lords/kings having the power to pass over the next closet kin they have to one better suited? Even if Viserys were to recognize young griff as his long lost nephew(which honestly with Viserys alive young griff needs), the idea he has no claim or his claim is weaker than young griff to the throne is unlikely to be the majority of opinion.

[Varysblackfyre321]

8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Um... no

Illaryio did not literally keep them in his mansion for very long as I had pictured in my head; still it truly wouldn't take long to realize just how badly Visery to be king from just a short while with him, and likely Illaryio and Varys kept tabs upon them throughout out the years.

[FictionIsntReal]

The original plan for Viserys may have been similar to the later plan for Daenerys: be an obviously legitimate offspring of Aerys (whose flight to Essos was already well known) who can help shore up the identity/legitimacy of Aegon. Illyrio indicates that he wasn't sure Daenerys would even have survived, but as long at least of the siblings was around they could be useful to that end. The plan could still have involved marrying her to Aegon eventually, but Khal Drogo would have to die in Westeros after his Dothraki had served their purpose. Varys seems rather confident in his ability to assassinate people, though there might be more PR value in killing Viserys and/or Drogo in a more open manner depending on how angry the Westerosi are at them and desirous of vengeance. Since Illyrio changes his plans multiple times, he might want to keep his options open for whatever is most advantageous (this is why I'm not persuaded that he used reverse psychology to get Viserys to leave his manse for Vaes Dothrak).

[chrisdaw]

There's little doubt Illyrio would have realised Viserys was almost certainly not going to step aside whilst he was staying there, it's just not that big a deal. V&I need swords, the trick is in getting 50k dothraki screamers over the ocean and fighting their enemies, dealing with Viserys is something they can do on the fly as the situation demands.

[Megorova]

GRRM is often using repetitive patterns and parallels. So I think, that there were already several instanses of questionable inheritance in ASOIAF's history, that could be clues about what Author planned for Viserys and fAegon. First such instance is the Dance of the Dragons, second is numerous Rebellions of Blackfyres. And current, still ongoing situation, also will be similar to what happened before.

Prior the Dance of the Dragons, King Viserys I has chosen his daughter Rhaenyra as his heir. While according to laws of inheritance in 7K, next in line for the crown was Aegon II.

Some people of 7K thought, that King Aegon IV has chosen Daemon I Blackfyre as his heir, and next in line for Targaryens' crown, by giving to him ancestral sword of Targaryens, Valyrian steel blade Blackfyre. Even though by laws of 7K, even legitimised bastards still stand in inheritance line after all originally legitimate children. So by law, next King was supposed to be Daeron II Targaryen, and not chosen by Aegon IV, his bastard-son Daemon.

In both cases neither of chosen heirs didn't became ruler (Rhaenyra Targaryen and Daemon Blackfyre), next King became the one who was supposed to rule by law - Aegon II and Daeron II.

But in case with the Dance, even though the rightful heir did became King, later he was replaced by descendant of chosen heir - Aegon II was replaced by Rhaenyra's son, Aegon III.

But then Aegon III married with daughter of Aegon II, thus eventually both bloodlines were merged together, and 7K was ruled by their common descendant.

Thus, based on that outcome, we can figure out, what will happen with fAegon, who is a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre. He's a descendant of chosen heir, thus maybe he will also became King of 7K, same as Aegon III. And maybe fAegon will marry with Dany.

Also there was another set of heirs - Viserys III (chosen heir), and Jon Snow (rightful heir). If he is legitimate son of Rhaegar Targaryen, then by laws of 7K, he is next in line of Targaryen inheritance. So even though Viserys III was an heir, chosen by King Aerys, he wasn't a righful heir, at least not according to laws of inheritance in 7K.

Chosen heir, Viserys III, died, and didn't became King. So by previous parallel, Jon Snow, rightful heir, will become King.

But later he will marry with Dany, because Viserys has chosen Dany as his own heir, so she's like Aegon III (chosen heir Viserys/Rhaenyra didn't became rulers, but their heirs (Dany/Aegon III) will/did).

Thus Dany has equal possibilities of marrying with Jon Snow or fAegon. In case of marriage with Jon, she will be descendant/heir of chosen heir Viserys, and in case of marriage with Aegon Blackfyre, Aegon will be descendant of chosen heir Daemon I Blackfyre, and Dany will be descendant of rightful heir Daeron II Targaryen.

I think, that GRRM intentionally created two parallels, to conceal from readers, what will be the final of the Game of Thrones, who will sit on Iron Throne in the end.

My guess, is that in the beginning Dany will think, that fAegon is really her nephew, and thus she will be willing to marry with him. Though later she will find out the truth about him. So probably either the wedding will be canceled, or it won't be consumated.

I think, that maester Marwyn was one of Rhaegar's teachers at King's Landing. That's how he was able to read three pages out of book of prophecies, made by Daenys the Dreamer. So it's possible, that later Marwyn was the one who was assisting Princess Elia, when she was giving birth to her children. And also he was the one, who married Rhaegar and Lyanna (marwyn in Welsh means marry). And he also helped Lyanna to delived her baby, when she was at the Tower of Joy. So could be that maester Marwyn knows some usually unvisible features of real Aegon. Maybe he had a birth mark, on some place that is covered by clothes. Or maybe he had mismatched eyes, or a little tail, or six toes or fingers, like Prince Jaehaerys, son of Aegon II. Marwyn will tell Dany about that feature, and during their wedding night, she will see that he doesn't have it, and thus she will realise, that he is an impostor. So instead of a smexy wedding night, Dany's dragons will burn fAegon. Most likely, he's a mummer's dragon, one of lies that Dany will slay, according to the prophecy of the Undying.

[Therae]

On 5/5/2018 at 3:49 AM, Faera said:

I was always under the impression that they were always planning on using Viserys’s invasion to disrupt the kingdom and his own instability to weaken the realm further. Knowing how unstable he was, and the fact he was going to be invading with a Dothraki army who he had little to no control over, the idea was to feed so much discontent with the people that Aegon arriving with the Golden Company would seem like a saviour. It’s a bit of a convoluted plan - hence why Varys has had to change it so many times because it relies so much on getting, essentially, a popular uprising for Aegon and the GC (the latter of whom needed some good PR since veterans of the last Blackfyre Rebellion are still alive).

Either way, Viserys was going to invade, muck up the peace of Robert’s reign and get ousted by the more pleasant Aegon. Then theJoffrey and Lannisters managed to make things unpalatable anyway - so Viserys’s death meant Varys shifted his focus to driving a wedge between the Lannisters. Thing with Varys is he was always adapting the plan but the end goal was always Aegon.

This was my impression as well. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

4 hours ago, Megorova said:

Prior the Dance of the Dragons, King Viserys I has chosen his daughter Rhaenyra as his heir. While according to laws of inheritance in 7K, next in line for the crown was Aegon II.

The laws of inheritance could be legally overrided if the current lord/king feels the next male kin/kin he has, simply isn't qualified to suceed him. Quite frankly, it's likely age old sexism guided many lords to back Aegon II(who did himself argue he was the rightful heir). And it's not as though Rhaenyra was not without her own supporters, those who'd honestly thought the  rebellion  Aeegon staged as pure treason.

4 hours ago, Megorova said:

Some people of 7K thought, that King Aegon IV has chosen Daemon I Blackfyre as his heir, and next in line for Targaryens' crown, by giving to him ancestral sword of Targaryens, Valyrian steel blade Blackfyre.

Point of difference; Aegon the unworthy, never actually dubbed Daemon I as his heir. Not in his will, he made no public statement to that effect where he declared Daemon as such; all the Blackfyre pretenders supporters had was the fact he gave a sword to the son whose more warrior than his current lawful heir. Honestly, a lot of his supporters probably recognized they're case was weak but by god Daemon was awesome and they hate Dorne perverting the redkeep. 

4 hours ago, Megorova said:

Also there was another set of heirs - Viserys III (chosen heir), and Jon Snow (rightful heir). If he is legitimate son of Rhaegar Targaryen, then by laws of 7K, he is next in line of Targaryen inheritance. So even though Viserys III was an heir, chosen by King Aerys, he wasn't a righful heir, at least not according to laws of inheritance in 7K.

The chosen heir is the rightful heir if the king/lord in question specificly degrees a person as such before his death. If Aerys named Viserys his heir than Viserys simply put skips over Aegon and Jon and whoever else that may have sprung from Targyen loins. 

At most if R+L=J is true, Jon's claim might be counted more(if there was mapeople were to believe it), than that of Daenarys. But still it would be heavily debated since although the sunset kingdoms have for the majority of it's history tolerated the Targyens...peculiarities, polygamy isn't something well liked-may be during this time of religious zeal people will count the marriage as a sham for the fact Rheagar already had a wife.

[Varysblackfyre321]

I'm kinda suprised of the lack of talk Jorah's conduct. 

Does anyone feel it was part of Illaryio plan? Does it look like the man had grown fixated that early and was trying to drive a wedge between her and one of the last bit of family she has left?  Was he just really bad at his job at the moment?

[Megorova]

On 5/26/2018 at 6:57 AM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I'm kinda suprised of the lack of talk Jorah's conduct. 

Does anyone feel it was part of Illaryio plan? Does it look like the man had grown fixated that early and was trying to drive a wedge between her and one of the last bit of family she has left?  Was he just really bad at his job at the moment?

He was working for Varys and for Illyrio from the very beginning. Even the way, in which he was introduced to Targaryens, was a manipulation, to make them take him as their servant. And from then on he was working on Dany and Viserys. Her he was manipulating into severing her ties with her brother. And Viserys he was manipulating into ruining his relationship with Dothraki. By that kind of behaviour, Viserys earned from Dothraki their disrespect, contempt, and became a laughing stock. Even making Viserys a drunkard, was planned by Jorah. He intentionally introduced Viserys to traders from Western Market, that were giving him free wine. So Viserys was supposed to die, while he was with Dothraki. Doreah was also working for Illyrio, and helping Jorah to get rid of Viserys.

Also on the night, when Viserys died, during celebration feast, seems that Jorah was testing ground, questioning Dany thru subtext and implications, whether she will be willing to part with Viserys, and what will be her actions, if after his death, she will find out, that she has another relative alive - Elia's Aegon (while actually he is a Blackfyre pretender).

[Corvo the Crow]

@Ran Said in another thread that GRRM haven't thought about Blackfyres until much later, so there was no supposed time for Visy to die.