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NBA playoffs 2018 - Raptors over Cavs in 6


Red Tiger

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Great game 5. Really wanted the Sixers to win because shit would finally get really interesting (Boston would have to either win on the road in front of a rabid Philly crowd or somehow pull it together in game 7 after blowing 3 straight)...and because now we're stuck in a situation with no NBA game until next Monday. A 5 day layoff after having awesome playoff basketball every single night for a month suckkkks. 

At least GS-Houston should make up for a brutal round 2. I even think Boston-Cleveland will be better than last year. This Celtics team is better built to take on the Cavs  - good defenders top to bottom, tons of wings to throw at Lebron and of course no Kyrie on the Cavs. Of course with Lebron reaching this otherworldly level I don't give Boston much of a shot to actually win the thing....but c'mon, gimme 6 games, I don't feel like that's too much to ask. 

The Boston - Cleveland game's on Sunday afternoon. Don't miss it!

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23 minutes ago, WarGalley said:

The Boston - Cleveland game's on Sunday afternoon. Don't miss it!

Oh, thanks for the heads up! I don't think Boston-Cleveland had been scheduled yet when I looked it up. 

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1 hour ago, Red Tiger said:

Rockets/Warriors is gonna  be a war.

Warriors in 6.

I got Warriors in 6 too, but I think the series will be a bit of a let down. I wasn't listening to a break of the series this morning, and it sounds like GS is a match up nightmare for Houston. It wouldn't be reflected in a single game, but over the course of the series they can make Harden's life dreadful. They'll wear him down. And furthermore, Houston is going to have a hard time defending GS. Paul matches up well with Curry, but it could be a mess everywhere else.

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15 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I got Warriors in 6 too, but I think the series will be a bit of a let down. I wasn't listening to a break of the series this morning, and it sounds like GS is a match up nightmare for Houston. It wouldn't be reflected in a single game, but over the course of the series they can make Harden's life dreadful. They'll wear him down. And furthermore, Houston is going to have a hard time defending GS. Paul matches up well with Curry, but it could be a mess everywhere else.

I wouldn't say that GS is a match up nightmare for Houston.  The Rockets were built with the goal of beating GSW.  Every team has trouble matching up with the Warriors, because they have two top 5 and two other top 25 players.  Paul is a good matchup for Curry, particularly if Curry's quickness is only at 90%, which I expect (no excuses in the playoffs though, everyone is banged up).  Ariza, PJ Tucker and Mbah a Moute are all capable of at least making Durant work, which is the best you can hope for.  Likewise those three plus Morris/Capela are quite capable of giving Green different looks and plenty of high energy defenders.

The big problem is at shooting guard.  Harden can't stay with Thompson, and if he tries, he'll probably be too exhausted to be effective on the other end, which is death for Houston anyway.  I have no question that GSW is going to make Harden work on defense, both because he's usually their weakest defender and because over a 7 game series it's worth it to wear him down. 

BUT, Houston creates matchup problems for GSW as well.  Houston turns the ball over way less than GSW, and that can lead to open threes the other way.  The Houston offense doesn't have as much ball movement as GSW, which means that guys like Ariza and Tucker can save their energy for defense.  If GSW goes small, I'm not sure how well Green can handle Capela, who is still mobile enough to do switches.  Thompson will primarily cover Harden, and in all likelihood Harden will try and get him in foul trouble.  If that happens, I don't think GSW has a good secondary option - Iguodala or Livingston can try and cover him, but I don't know if either one is quick enough anymore. 

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11 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I wouldn't say that GS is a match up nightmare for Houston.  The Rockets were built with the goal of beating GSW.  Every team has trouble matching up with the Warriors, because they have two top 5 and two other top 25 players.  Paul is a good matchup for Curry, particularly if Curry's quickness is only at 90%, which I expect (no excuses in the playoffs though, everyone is banged up).  Ariza, PJ Tucker and Mbah a Moute are all capable of at least making Durant work, which is the best you can hope for.  Likewise those three plus Morris/Capela are quite capable of giving Green different looks and plenty of high energy defenders.

The big problem is at shooting guard.  Harden can't stay with Thompson, and if he tries, he'll probably be too exhausted to be effective on the other end, which is death for Houston anyway.  I have no question that GSW is going to make Harden work on defense, both because he's usually their weakest defender and because over a 7 game series it's worth it to wear him down. 

BUT, Houston creates matchup problems for GSW as well.  Houston turns the ball over way less than GSW, and that can lead to open threes the other way.  The Houston offense doesn't have as much ball movement as GSW, which means that guys like Ariza and Tucker can save their energy for defense.  If GSW goes small, I'm not sure how well Green can handle Capela, who is still mobile enough to do switches.  Thompson will primarily cover Harden, and in all likelihood Harden will try and get him in foul trouble.  If that happens, I don't think GSW has a good secondary option - Iguodala or Livingston can try and cover him, but I don't know if either one is quick enough anymore. 

GS should be playing defense against Houston just like how Indiana dd against Cleveland.  Let Harden score.  Don't let the others.  Make Harden work on defense.

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23 hours ago, DanteGabriel said:

Most Celtics fans?

Go back like 6 months ago and see what the answer was in this thread back then. 

 

Predictions - Warriors in 5, and Warriors in 5 again over Cavs. 

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28 minutes ago, Slurktan said:

GS should be playing defense against Houston just like how Indiana dd against Cleveland.  Let Harden score.  Don't let the others.  Make Harden work on defense.

It's just Chris Paul and Clint Capela are a great deal better than Kevin Love and Kyle Korver.

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

I wouldn't say that GS is a match up nightmare for Houston.  The Rockets were built with the goal of beating GSW.  Every team has trouble matching up with the Warriors, because they have two top 5 and two other top 25 players.  Paul is a good matchup for Curry, particularly if Curry's quickness is only at 90%, which I expect (no excuses in the playoffs though, everyone is banged up).  Ariza, PJ Tucker and Mbah a Moute are all capable of at least making Durant work, which is the best you can hope for.  Likewise those three plus Morris/Capela are quite capable of giving Green different looks and plenty of high energy defenders.

The big problem is at shooting guard.  Harden can't stay with Thompson, and if he tries, he'll probably be too exhausted to be effective on the other end, which is death for Houston anyway.  I have no question that GSW is going to make Harden work on defense, both because he's usually their weakest defender and because over a 7 game series it's worth it to wear him down. 

BUT, Houston creates matchup problems for GSW as well.  Houston turns the ball over way less than GSW, and that can lead to open threes the other way.  The Houston offense doesn't have as much ball movement as GSW, which means that guys like Ariza and Tucker can save their energy for defense.  If GSW goes small, I'm not sure how well Green can handle Capela, who is still mobile enough to do switches.  Thompson will primarily cover Harden, and in all likelihood Harden will try and get him in foul trouble.  If that happens, I don't think GSW has a good secondary option - Iguodala or Livingston can try and cover him, but I don't know if either one is quick enough anymore. 

If it was the old Warriors with Curry, Thompson, Green vs. Harden, Paul, Capela that'd be like perfect offsets. The issue is Durant is the trump card that there is no counter for. With his size and shooting touch, there's virtually nothing you can do to prevent him from getting a quality look in high leverage situations. Holiday and Davis tried like hell and it made no difference. 

Feel like Houston needs Harden and Paul to out play the Splash Brothers decisively to have a shot in this series. I actually do think the Rockets with their 3 heavy style and being the kings of variance will win a couple games in this series just based on their ability to get insanely hot. Maybe even 3 if they're unsually locked in...but 4 seems like a near impossible ask. And we've still yet to see the Lebron-like "we're pulling this thing out no matter what" resolve from Harden and Paul that it would take to beat this Warriors team. 

Regardless I'm glad we got this matchup. By a bunch of measures this Houston team is the best the Warriors has faced during this run. But that means fuck all in a tight must-win playoff game down the stretch and the Rockets have a lot to prove in that area before we fully buy in.  

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33 minutes ago, Relic said:

Go back like 6 months ago and see what the answer was in this thread back then. 

 

Predictions - Warriors in 5, and Warriors in 5 again over Cavs. 

I went back and found the thread:

All the discussion takes place in the first couple of pages. Some folks might want to cover their eyes at their comments in the light of hindsight, which is part of the reason I don't make sports predictions.

So yeah, I see what you're saying now, and funnily enough, I said I would probably take that trade. Though at the time, I think your proposal was Tatum and Smart, not Brown. Safe to say Tatum's stock has gone up since then and Porzingis' has gone down.

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I accidentally posted in the NFL thread instead of here... but anyways, Dwayne Casey is officially out. 

Unsurprising, but I'm not sure who they think they can get to get a better result.

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21 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Regardless I'm glad we got this matchup. By a bunch of measures this Houston team is the best the Warriors has faced during this run. But that means fuck all in a tight must-win playoff game down the stretch and the Rockets have a lot to prove in that area before we fully buy in.  

Agreed.  By almost any metric this is the best team the Warriors have had to face in the past four years.  The Warriors are actually surprisingly untested in their 2015-17 championship runs, with weird injuries and collapses protecting them in 2015 (Rockets and Cavaliers) and 2017 (Spurs).  2016 was the only real battle when it was the Warriors dealing with injury/adversity, and they didn't pass the test.  Obviously they've since added Durant, which of course changes things.  I don't expect the Rockets have the staying power to beat the Warriors 4 times, but they have at least a punchers chance, which is more than I'd say about any of the other 28 teams in the league. 

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19 minutes ago, Rhom said:

I accidentally posted in the NFL thread instead of here... but anyways, Dwayne Casey is officially out. 

Unsurprising, but I'm not sure who they think they can get to get a better result.

I guess Casey should have told his guys to make those six inch layups at the end of game 1. 

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I really wish more owners would give coaches the coach AND the GM positions and let them run the entire program, a la Pete Carroll and Belichick in the NFL.

Oftentimes the coach gets blamed for "underachieving" when in reality the team was just not built to do well in the playoffs.

They say the regular season is a marathon and the playoffs a sprint, it is true and what might work in the regular does not always work in the playoffs.

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3 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

I really wish more owners would give coaches the coach AND the GM positions and let them run the entire program, a la Pete Carroll and Belichick in the NFL.

Oftentimes the coach gets blamed for "underachieving" when in reality the team was just not built to do well in the playoffs.

They say the regular season is a marathon and the playoffs a sprint, it is true and what might work in the regular does not always work in the playoffs.

That power hasn't worked well for Thibs or Doc Rivers. Meanwhile, Pop's got Buford and Stevens has Ainge. Those are cases where the coach and GM are both good at their job and on the same page about team building.

I think unifying that power only works if you've got someone on the level of Belichick, who still fucks up plenty of personnel moves.

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