Is Jon older or younger than Robb?

[Corvo the Crow]

Many inconsistencies on this and not all are purposefully made I think.

If, Jon is older than Robb however, there must be a second baby to explain Lyanna's bloody bed. And we have no candidate for that. Allyria is a possibility but she is more likely to be Ashara's, being kept with as a Dayne.

Unless... she is Arthur and Lyanna's. The crack deepens!

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

17 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

The short answer is that we don't know who is older because we don't know when either child was born with any certainty.  The first big variable is when Robb was born.  Catelyn thinks that she married Ned after the Battle of the Bells and that Robb was conceived within two weeks of her wedding.  Jaime thinks the Battle of the Bells happened a few weeks before the Trident.  If that is all correct, then Robb was born 7+ months after the Sack of King's Landing.  

Catelyn may, however, be mistaken.  She believes Jon Arryn married Lysa after losing two heirs:  his nephew (who died with Brandon Stark) and his cousin (killed at the Battle of the Bells).  If Jon Arryn married Lysa after the first heir died, right at the beginning of the rebellion, then Robb may have been born before the Sack of King's Landing.  Note that I am not suggesting that Catelyn mis-remembers when she was married, just that she may mis-remember which death caused Jon Arryn to seek a new wife known to be fertile.  

As for Jon, all we know for sure is that Catelyn learned that Ned had fathered a bastard within the first year of her marriage and that Jon was present in Winterfell when she arrived there after the rebellion.  Catelyn also implies that Jon's birth took place some time after her wedding.

As far as their relative ages go, it is suggested that Jon and Robb are "of an age," whatever that means.  And Jon is 15 during the feast at Winterfell for Robert and Robb is 15 when Ned dies some months later. 

All of this suggests that the age difference between the two of them is probably less than a year.  The earliest date for Jon's birth (assuming Catelyn's suggestion that he was born after the Ned/Cat marriage) would have Jon being about 8-9 months older than Robb.  The latest date for Jon's birth would be about 3 months after Robb's (since Robb was born 9 months after the Ned/Cat wedding and Cat learned of Jon's birth less than a year after marrying Ned).  

Let me offer two additional thoughts.  If you subscribe to the R+L=J theory and believe that Jon was born at the toj some time after the Sack of King's Landing, then you can narrow the possible age difference somewhat but you still have the problem of not knowing whether the Ned/Cat marriage took place toward the beginning or toward the end of the rebellion.  You also have the problem that, if Ned and Catelyn were married at the beginning of the rebellion, and Ned discovered Jon only at the end of the rebellion, how did Catelyn learn about Jon within the first year of her marriage?  It is hard to imagine that someone sent a raven with that news.  

The second is that there is an old SSM from 1999, while GRRM was writing ASOS, that says that Jon is around 8-9 months older than Dany. That would put Jon's birth anywhere from about 2 weeks before the Sack of King's Landing to two weeks after the Sack (since we know Dany was conceived about two weeks prior to the Sack).  The problem with that SSM (if we assume it is an accurate report of something GRRM said) is that GRRM changed his mind about several things that were included in it that related to interaction bewteen Ned and Ashara.  The point of the SSM was to suggest that Ned and Ashara may have had a liason 9 months before Jon was born.  But he changed his mind about including that in ASOS (and about some other things in that SSM) so I don't think that reference to the timing of Jon's birth can be considered reliable.  Even if it is reliable, it does not help determine whether Robb or Jon is older because Robb may have been born before the Sack or as much as 7+ months later.      

      

I just wanted to complimit you on your excellent analysis. You summed up all known information well and made your best guess. I also want to complimit you for not saying "we know" or "it is fact" when it is in fact conjecture. (It is far too common on this forum to present your opinion as fact) You made an argument the right way. Well done. 

[Corvo the Crow]

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Ned had lingered scarcely a fortnight with his new bride before he too had ridden off to war with promises on his lips. At least he had left her with more than words; he had given her a son. Nine moons had waxed and waned, and Robb had been born in Riverrun while his father still warred in the south. She had brought him forth in blood and pain, not knowing whether Ned would ever see him. Her son. He had been so small

Robb was born before the war has ended.

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Catelyn took her husband's hand. "There was grievous news today, my lord. I did not wish to trouble you until you had cleansed yourself." There was no way to soften the blow, so she told him straight. "I am so sorry, my love. Jon Arryn is dead."

His eyes found hers, and she could see how hard it took him, as she had known it would. In his youth, Ned had fostered at the Eyrie, and the childless Lord Arryn had become a second father to him and his fellow ward, Robert Baratheon. When the Mad King Aerys II Targaryen had demanded their heads, the Lord of the Eyrie had raised his moon-and-falcon banners in revolt rather than give up those he had pledged to protect.

And one day fifteen years ago, this second father had become a brother as well, as he and Ned stood together in the sept at Riverrun to wed two sisters, the daughters of Lord Hoster Tully.

When Cat married, though it's not of too much use by itself.

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If she had lost a child before, that might explain Father's words, and much else besides . . . Lysa's match with Lord Arryn had been hastily arranged, and Jon was an old man even then, older than their father. An old man without an heir. His first two wives had left him childless, his brother's son had been murdered with Brandon Stark in King's Landing, his gallant cousin had died in the Battle of the Bells. He needed a young wife if House Arryn was to continue . . . a young wife known to be fertile.

 

Quote

"Good. Now, Jon Arryn married thrice, but his first two wives gave him no children, so for long years his nephew Elbert was his heir. Meantime, Elys was plowing Alys quite dutifully, and she was whelping once a year. She gave him nine children, eight girls and one precious little boy, another Jasper, after which she died exhausted. Boy Jasper, inconsiderate of the heroic efforts that had gone into begetting him, got himself kicked in the head by a horse when he was three years old. A pox took two of his sisters soon after, leaving six. The eldest married Ser Denys Arryn, a distant cousin to the Lords of the Eyrie. There are several branches of House Arryn scattered across the Vale, all as proud as they are penurious, save for the Gulltown Arryns, who had the rare good sense to marry merchants. They're rich, but less than couth, so no one talks about them. Ser Denys hailed from one of the poor, proud branches . . . but he was also a renowned jouster, handsome and gallant and brimming with courtesy. And he had that magic Arryn name, which made him ideal for the eldest Waynwood girl. Their children would be Arryns, and the next heirs to the Vale should any ill befall Elbert. Well, as it happened, Mad King Aerys befell Elbert. You know that story?"

She did. "The Mad King murdered him."

"He did indeed. And soon after, Ser Denys left his pregnant Waynwood wife to ride to war. He died during the Battle of the Bells, of an excess of gallantry and an axe. When they told his lady of his death she perished of grief, and her newborn son soon followed. No matter. Jon Arryn had gotten himself a young wife during the war, one he had reason to believe fertile. He was very hopeful, I'm sure, but you and I know that all he ever got from Lysa were stillbirths, miscarriages, and poor Sweetrobin.

Marriages indeed happened after Battle of the Bells as @The Twinslayer said.

 

[Angel Eyes]

Offhand, so Lysa’s abortion was common knowledge?

[Corvo the Crow]

16 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Offhand, so Lysa’s abortion was common knowledge?

Doubt it. Even cat didn't know.

[zandru]

Just a thought ... In performing these calculations (and thanks for all the great detail, btw!!), we might also consider that if Lyanna birthed Jon and died in a "bloody bed", maybe he was somewhat premature. Which would add even more uncertainty to who was older.

[The Twinslayer]

16 hours ago, JaneSnow said:

But Jon wasn't 15 at the time of the winterfell feast, he was still fourteen. And during the "that is why I read so much" speech from Tyrion on the way to the wall, Tyrion asks how old Jon is and Jon says he is fourteen. Bran confirms that both are 'of an age' with each on in her first pov chapter, Jon is confirmed to be 14 in the chapter mentioned earlier. Later on in a Jon pov he mentions his name day having passed, and after that Bran mentions Robb being currently 15 as well. 

I stand corrected.  Thank you.  I don't think that changes my overall conclusion, which is that we don't know who is older.

9 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

We know Jon was born 8-9 months before Dany and we know she was conceived the night before leaving KL for DS. The night before the sack of KL. So we can accurately say Jon was born within a two week window on either side of that date. So Conceived 9 months ish prior to the sack. 

Robb was conceived the night of Cat & Ned's wedding which we know happened after the battle of the bells. 

We also know the boys are so close in age that Cat is uncertain which is older. Meaning that they can not be more than a month apart in age. As the differences in a baby at the ages they were when Cat first meets Jon at WF are far too profound to be overlooked. 

All of this points to Jon being conceived at around the same time as Robb, about three months into the rebellion. It lasted more or less a year and we know due to the SSM about Dany & Jon's births that Jon was born around the time of the sack; the ending of the war. And a pregnancy lasts 9 months so 12 subtract 9 = 3. Roughly give or take a week or two either side to allow for variations in gestation. 

I'd guess Robb is truly older by a matter of a fortnight at most. 

We don't know that Jon was born 8-9 months before Dany.  That comes from an SSM (that may or may not accurately quote GRRM) from shortly before the publication of ASOS in which the questioner suggested that Cat had to be naive to believe that Jon could be the child of Ned and Ashara because of timeline related problems.  GRRM's response was a long explanation of why it was possible that Ned and Ashara met up 9 months prior to Jon's birth.  It included information that supposedly would be published in ASOS but which was scrapped before the book came out (for example, it said we would learn that Ashara was a companion to Elia in King's Landing in the early years of her marriage) and then later contradicted (the world book says Elia lived on Dragonstone in the early years of her marriage).  Given GRRM's tendency to write something up to see how it reads and then changing things around later, it sounds like the suggestion that Jon was 8-9 months older than Dany came from a draft chapter of ASOS that was going to describe a meeting between Ned and Ashara that happened around 9 months before the Sack but that GRRM changed his mind and left it out of the book.  That is all a long way of saying that I don't think that this information about the time of Jon's birth is reliable.  It may be accurate or it may not.  

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Many inconsistencies on this and not all are purposefully made I think.

If, Jon is older than Robb however, there must be a second baby to explain Lyanna's bloody bed. And we have no candidate for that. Allyria is a possibility but she is more likely to be Ashara's, being kept with as a Dayne.

Unless... she is Arthur and Lyanna's. The crack deepens!

I agree that Lyanna had a child.  We don't know whether it lived.  If it did, it could be Jon.  It could also be Aegon.  If Septa Lemore is Ashara, then that would explain why she gave up her child (Jon) so she could whisk the royal bastard off to safety far away.  Rather like Gilly does with Mance's baby.  

6 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

I just wanted to complimit you on your excellent analysis. You summed up all known information well and made your best guess. I also want to complimit you for not saying "we know" or "it is fact" when it is in fact conjecture. (It is far too common on this forum to present your opinion as fact) You made an argument the right way. Well done. 

Thank you!

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Robb was born before the war has ended.

When Cat married, though it's not of too much use by itself.

 

Marriages indeed happened after Battle of the Bells as @The Twinslayer said.

 

I think Cat's thoughts about when Robb was born are a little ambiguous.  She says that Robb was born while Ned was warring in the South.  For Robert, Jon Arryn, and Hoster Tully, that war ended with the Sack of King's Landing, when Aerys died.  But after that, "Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south."  We don't know what those battles were or how long it took him to fight them, but it could have been as little as a few weeks or as long as several months.  

[JaneSnow]

 

10 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Many inconsistencies on this and not all are purposefully made I think.

If, Jon is older than Robb however, there must be a second baby to explain Lyanna's bloody bed. And we have no candidate for that. Allyria is a possibility but she is more likely to be Ashara's, being kept with as a Dayne.

Unless... she is Arthur and Lyanna's. The crack deepens!

A woman having a bloody bed doesn't necessarily mean a baby. Could've been just a lot of moonblood. Or a wound.

[Corvo the Crow]

5 hours ago, JaneSnow said:

 

A woman having a bloody bed doesn't necessarily mean a baby. Could've been just a lot of moonblood. Or a wound.

True but GRRM used bloody bed for giving birth in at least one other time so there's that.

[Corvo the Crow]

8 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

I think Cat's thoughts about when Robb was born are a little ambiguous.  She says that Robb was born while Ned was warring in the South.  For Robert, Jon Arryn, and Hoster Tully, that war ended with the Sack of King's Landing, when Aerys died.  But after that, "Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south."  We don't know what those battles were or how long it took him to fight them, but it could have been as little as a few weeks or as long as several months.  

Right! I assumed the father was Hoster because I read "her father" but reading again it says "his"

 

 

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Many men fathered bastards. Catelyn had grown up with that knowledge. It came as no surprise to her, in the first year of her marriage, to learn that Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign. He had a man's needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father's castle at Riverrun. Her thoughts were more of Robb, the infant at her breast, than of the husband she scarcely knew.

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The war had raged for close to a year. Lords great and small had flocked to Robert's banners; others had remained loyal to Targaryen

Catelyn thinks war lasted a year and she had Robb at her breast to concern, Ned thinks war didn't even last a year. But I wouldn't rely too much on that, Tyrion seeing more winters than a watch ranger and all that.

They married after the bells and even Ned going to Winterfell from Eyrir and then assembling troops and marching down would take some time. 

 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

10 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

We don't know that Jon was born 8-9 months before Dany.  That comes from an SSM (that may or may not accurately quote GRRM) from shortly before the publication of ASOS in which the questioner suggested that Cat had to be naive to believe that Jon could be the child of Ned and Ashara because of timeline related problems.  GRRM's response was a long explanation of why it was possible that Ned and Ashara met up 9 months prior to Jon's birth.  It included information that supposedly would be published in ASOS but which was scrapped before the book came out (for example, it said we would learn that Ashara was a companion to Elia in King's Landing in the early years of her marriage) and then later contradicted (the world book says Elia lived on Dragonstone in the early years of her marriage).  Given GRRM's tendency to write something up to see how it reads and then changing things around later, it sounds like the suggestion that Jon was 8-9 months older than Dany came from a draft chapter of ASOS that was going to describe a meeting between Ned and Ashara that happened around 9 months before the Sack but that GRRM changed his mind and left it out of the book.  That is all a long way of saying that I don't think that this information about the time of Jon's birth is reliable.  It may be accurate or it may not.  

That's some first class convoluted R+L=J denial bollocks. 

All of this supposedly and maybe and could have been changed crap comes to nothing when you consider the way Ned finds Lyanna in her birthing bed dying of a fever. Which we know from his dream. (which no doubt you will say can not be relied upon as it was a fever dream.As though the author hasn't given us deliberately vague information which we need to piece together ourselves in order to realise Lyanna birthed a child.)  Child bed fever takes between 48 hours and 10 days post partum to kill. So she had given birth within the fortnight. 

Now you can say Oh well we don't know that the baby was Jon. But well that would be silly. Given the amount of in text evidence that he is the son of her and Rhaegar. From veiled references to Kings hiding in snow to Ned thinking about him as his blood etc.  

Yes the SSM came from before ASOS yes GRRM didn't include absolutely everything alluded to in it but when you piece together all the information  Jon is very obviously 8-9 months older than Dany. That much is obviously true. 

 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

There is also a bit more timeline info dropped in TWOIAF.  Rhaegar set out from Dragonstone on the first day of 282. 

Quote

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.

As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

Here we are told with the coming of the new year he had taken to the road. So we know the abduction happened in the first month of 282. And Robb was born in 283 at Riverrun. We know he was conceived after the battle of the Bells, and born 9 months later. Which means that the war straddled the new year. Jon's birth year is also 283. So we know he too was conceived during the war. Cat can't tell which baby is older when she arrives at Winterfell and so they must be very close in age indeed because young babies have a very specific developmental timeline and age can be ascertained very easily within the first year when comparing two or more. A 3 month old will look and behave very differently to a 6 month old for example. Cat travelled to Winterfell soon after the end of the war and we know the war lasted about 12 months. Subtract 9 from 12 and you are left with 3. Meaning Robb can not be any more than 3 months old and is likely much younger. Given that the battle of the bells and thus his conception did not happen at the very beginning of the war but most likely a few months into it. Especially when we take into account his birth year is 283. In order to push Robb's birthday into 283 his conception can take place no earlier than month 4 of 282.  So when Cat arrives at WF with Robb he is in most likelihood only a couple of months old. Again No way can anyone mistake a baby for being the same age as theirs if they're more than a matter of weeks older at that stage.  Jon has to have been conceived at the same time as Robb give or take a fortnight either side.

The only reason to try to piss about attempting to prove Jon is older or younger than he is is to refute R+L=J and that just doesn't work for everything else in the story. Thematically, with Ned's thoughts and feelings about Jon, Rhaegar etc. The multitude of hints and foreshadowing, or Lyanna's dying of a fever in her bed of blood. 

[Lady Winter Rose]

5 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

 A 3 month old will look and behave very differently to a 6 month old for example.

. 

I just want to note few things:

1) Robb was Cat's first child

2) There aren't any expert pediatricians in Westeros

3) Even today, people may take mistake when telling other babies age.

 

 

Here in Croatia, there were few abandoned babies with unknown identity and people gave wrong estimate on one baby age I believe.

 

I'm firm R+L=J believer, but Martin seems pissed out every time somebody mention this.

[Corvo the Crow]

14 minutes ago, Lady Winter Rose said:

I just want to note few things:

1) Robb was Cat's first child

2) There aren't any expert pediatricians in Westeros

3) Even today, people may take mistake when telling other babies age.

 

 

Here in Croatia, there were few abandoned babies with unknown identity and people gave wrong estimate on one baby age I believe.

 

I'm firm R+L=J believer, but Martin seems pissed out every time somebody mention this.

Quite agree even if Cat had more than one baby to compare not everyone will fall exaxtly within the charts, not that westerosi have any to begin with. Also Jon "grows fast"

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

22 hours ago, Lady Winter Rose said:

I just want to note few things:

1) Robb was Cat's first child

2) There aren't any expert pediatricians in Westeros

3) Even today, people may take mistake when telling other babies age.

 

 

Here in Croatia, there were few abandoned babies with unknown identity and people gave wrong estimate on one baby age I believe.

 

I'm firm R+L=J believer, but Martin seems pissed out every time somebody mention this.

My eldest was my first child too and I ain't a paediatrician but I'd have had to have been an imbecile to have looked at him and my nephew who is three months older together and not noticed the difference.  

I'm glad you're not an R=L=J denier though.

[SirArthur]

This is another one of these discussions, where one thing is argued for (Jon Snow) and the other thing is ignored over it (Edric Storm). 

It's exactly the same situation. It is very clear that Edric is Robert's son and older than Joffrey. It is also clear that both Jon and Edric were conceived before the marriage. It is also very clear that both Robert and Ned acknowledge their bastards. (It is really hard to ignore that if Jon is raised by Ned, but I am sure this forum finds a way to declare jon illegitimate). Yet nobody considers Edric Robert's heir. 

 

From the example Edric I think it is easy to conclude that Jon's age relative to Robb has no real meaning. 

[Corvo the Crow]

On 03.05.2018 at 10:39 AM, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

The only reason to try to piss about attempting to prove Jon is older or younger than he is is to refute R+L=J and that just doesn't work for everything else in the story. Thematically, with Ned's thoughts and feelings about Jon, Rhaegar etc. The multitude of hints and foreshadowing, or Lyanna's dying of a fever in her bed of blood. 

Disagree. Disputing may be the foremost reason but depending on when Jon was born it gives us the possibility of another birth from Lyanna.

Honestly I believe R+L= Jon alone and no second baby but whole confusion around the timeline of the kidnapping and rebellion makes it look like there's time enough to pop two babies.

Rhaegar kidnaps Lyanna at the start of the year, word reaches Brandon and he travels to KL on horse. Word reaches Rickard he also goes to KL. Going to KL from WH alone takes 15 days so certainly more than a month from kidnap to executions. After that Ravens are sent to Arryn and he defies the king and also sends Ravens to his bannermen, starting the Rebellion which lasted near a year. Ned goes to North, rides south to Stoney Sept WITHOUT Frey help, mind you, then rides to Riverrun to marry and impregnate Cat and give a break of 2 weeks. Skipping many other things, Trident happen and 15 days after that the sack of KL and shortly after that Ned lifts the siege of SE ending the Rebellion. Robb is born sometime before the end. Ned keeps riding south and finds Lyanna in a bed of blood. Jon is sent North and grows faster than Robb because he is a bastard.

Lots of things don't add up.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

51 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

This is another one of these discussions, where one thing is argued for (Jon Snow) and the other thing is ignored over it (Edric Storm). 

It's exactly the same situation. It is very clear that Edric is Robert's son and older than Joffrey. It is also clear that both Jon and Edric were conceived before the marriage. It is also very clear that both Robert and Ned acknowledge their bastards. (It is really hard to ignore that if Jon is raised by Ned, but I am sure this forum finds a way to declare jon illegitimate). Yet nobody considers Edric Robert's heir. 

 

From the example Edric I think it is easy to conclude that Jon's age relative to Robb has no real meaning. 

What? Edric Storm was born in 287. And is a bastard because we know his mother and father were not married. Robert was already married to Cersei they married in 283. Joffrey was born in 286. And whilst not his son officially is his son and heir because he was born to his actual wife. 

This is why no one thinks Edric is Roberts true heir. The two scenario's are completely unrelated. 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

13 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Disagree. Disputing may be the foremost reason but depending on when Jon was born it gives us the possibility of another birth from Lyanna.

Honestly I believe R+L= Jon alone and no second baby but whole confusion around the timeline of the kidnapping and rebellion makes it look like there's time enough to pop two babies.

Rhaegar kidnaps Lyanna at the start of the year, word reaches Brandon and he travels to KL on horse. Word reaches Rickard he also goes to KL. Going to KL from WH alone takes 15 days so certainly more than a month from kidnap to executions. After that Ravens are sent to Arryn and he defies the king and also sends Ravens to his bannermen, starting the Rebellion which lasted near a year. Ned goes to North, rides south to Stoney Sept WITHOUT Frey help, mind you, then rides to Riverrun to marry and impregnate Cat and give a break of 2 weeks. Skipping many other things, Trident happen and 15 days after that the sack of KL and shortly after that Ned lifts the siege of SE ending the Rebellion. Robb is born sometime before the end. Ned keeps riding south and finds Lyanna in a bed of blood. Jon is sent North and grows faster than Robb because he is a bastard.

Lots of things don't add up.

 

She teams up with Rhaegar in month 1 of 282, and is found at the ToJ sometime  in 283. The rebellion lasted about a year. Robb was conceived no earlier than month 4 of 282. As otherwise he would have been born in 282.

Robb is pretty much a newborn when the rebellion ends. As is Jon, and they are so close in age she can not tell which is older. 

So we know the period of time it took from her abduction to the marriages at RR was no less than 3 months. But could be up to 12 months.  she would have had to have gotten pregnant within 2 months of her and Raegar meeting up, popped the baby out in month 9-11 of 282 and then got pregnant again right away this time within one month so basically instantly. And then popped that baby out - has to be Jon as he and Robb look so close in age. And we know when Jon was born due to the SSM re his and Dany's age gap. 

So whilst it might just be possible that Lyanna squeezed two babies out in 18 months it is unlikely. Most women don't even stop bleeding lochia for 2-6 weeks and unless they had planned to use a wetnurse her period would be unlikely to return that soon. Ie she wouldn't have ovulated that soon after birth.

The timeline is loose but we have two separate characters saying roughly a year. in order to pop two sproggs she needs 18 months absolute minimum but realistically at least 20 months. Which is not about a year it is about two years. 

And anyway who would this mysterious first baby be? fAegon. Hahahahahahahahahaha. Sorry I know you don't believe this tripe. I just can't not laugh at the notion Varys was hiding Rhaegars & Lyanna's first born son, so must have been intimately connected to them in some way but didn't know she was pregnant twice and or didn't talk to Ned about this whole thing when they talked in the black cells. 

Not to mention the fact that so much in the story points to fAegon being a Blackfyre descendant and Illyrio & Vary's motivation being about that. 

Honestly the convoluted ways people try to shoe horn more baby swaps and parentage theories into the story is getting hilarious at this point.  

[The Twinslayer]

On 5/3/2018 at 3:05 AM, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

That's some first class convoluted R+L=J denial bollocks. 

All of this supposedly and maybe and could have been changed crap comes to nothing when you consider the way Ned finds Lyanna in her birthing bed dying of a fever. Which we know from his dream. (which no doubt you will say can not be relied upon as it was a fever dream.As though the author hasn't given us deliberately vague information which we need to piece together ourselves in order to realise Lyanna birthed a child.)  Child bed fever takes between 48 hours and 10 days post partum to kill. So she had given birth within the fortnight. 

Now you can say Oh well we don't know that the baby was Jon. But well that would be silly. Given the amount of in text evidence that he is the son of her and Rhaegar. From veiled references to Kings hiding in snow to Ned thinking about him as his blood etc.  

Yes the SSM came from before ASOS yes GRRM didn't include absolutely everything alluded to in it but when you piece together all the information  Jon is very obviously 8-9 months older than Dany. That much is obviously true. 

 

I don't really understand what you mean by "R+L=J denial."  R+L=J is a lot more likely if Jon was born several months after the Sack than it would be if he was born somewhere between two weeks before to two weeks after the Sack.  This is because we know that Ned did all of the following after the Sack but before finding Lyanna in her bed of blood.

First, Ned waited for Robert to arrive from the Trident.  Remember, Robert took a wound from Rhaegar at the Trident, and Robert had his own maester tend to Barristan Selmy after the battle, so Ned went ahead with the rebel vanguard and arrived in King's Landing at the same time as the Lannisters.  Robert arrived some days later.  

Then, Ned watched Tywin present Rhaegar's dead children to Robert, after which he left King's Landing in a cold rage to fight the last battles of the war alone.  We don't know who or where he fought those battles, only that there were battles, plural.  In addition to those battles, he lifted the siege of Storm's End and took loyalty oaths from Lords Tyrell and Redwine and all their knights.  

Then he somehow figured out where Lyanna was and took a small group of close friends to Dorne, where he encountered the Kingsguard knights at the tower of joy.  What happened next was probably one of the "last battles."  In fact, it was probably the final battle, since only he and Howland Reed survived (so it is unlikely he and Howland then went and fought more battles).  Then, Ned was there in time to watch Lyanna die.  

If Jon is 9 months older than Dany, then under your theory that Lyanna died a week or so after Jon's birth, that would mean that Lyanna died before the Sack of King's Landing.  If Jon is 8 months older than Dany, then under your theory, Lyanna died at most three weeks after the Sack.  Neither of those possibilities is possible.  My theory -- that Jon may have been born at the toj several months after the Sack -- is much more likely.

Also, consider that ASOS is where we learn a lot about the events around the Sack from Jaime.  When he was writing that book, GRRM was obviously putting some thought into his timeline.  I suspect what happened is that when he (supposedly) made the statement about 8 to 9 months, he had a draft chapter showing a Ned/Ashara meeting 8 to 9 months before the Sack, but he took that out because it conflicted with what he was trying to do with Jaime's story.  Meaning that the final product does not have Jon being born 8 to 9 months before Dany -- that was from a draft that was discarded.  

On your other points, I agree that Lyanna likely died from complications of childbirth.  It was pretty obvious that GRRM was setting that up from the beginning -- we first hear of Rhaegar and Lyanna when Dany tells us Rhaegar died on the Trident fighting for the woman he loved; later, Robert tells us that Rhaegar raped Lyanna and that he (Robert) avenged her on the Trident.  And we are also told that Rhaegar already had two children.  Whether Dany or Robert is right about the nature of the relationship, GRRM was clearly suggesting the possibility of a pregnancy.  

That said, there is a tendency on this board to get carried away with R+L=J "clues" that are nothing of the sort.  For example, there is no reference in the books to a "King" hiding in the North under "Snow."  There is a passage where Robert jokes that the Northern small folk are hiding from the king under snow.  If that is a reference to Jon, it implies that he does not have royal heritage.  

Similarly with Ned calling Jon "my blood."  Later, Lord Mormont tells Jon that Robb will marry a princess and birth sons with her, while Jon will never hold a child of his own blood.  So Jon knows that he will see and probably hold his nephews but that he will never hold a child that is his blood.  Thus, when Ned said Jon is "my blood" it means "Jon is my son."

To your second point, if we assume Lyanna died from childbirth, the question is where is the child (or children)?  On possibility is Jon.  Another is that the child did not live.  A third is that the child is Young Griff/Aegon.  I am partial to the theory that Aegon's parents are Lyanna and Rhaegar and that Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne.  In that scenario, Jon could be Aegon's twin brother or he could be Ned and Ashara's son.  Either way, the Aegon had to be hidden, and possibly Jon as well.  Ashara, with her purple eyes, took the child with purple eyes, and Ned took the one that looked like a Stark.  And it would be fitting if we find out that Ashara, like Gilly, left her own child to look after the royal (bastard?) baby.

    

On 5/3/2018 at 3:39 AM, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

There is also a bit more timeline info dropped in TWOIAF.  Rhaegar set out from Dragonstone on the first day of 282. 

Here we are told with the coming of the new year he had taken to the road. So we know the abduction happened in the first month of 282. And Robb was born in 283 at Riverrun. We know he was conceived after the battle of the Bells, and born 9 months later. Which means that the war straddled the new year. Jon's birth year is also 283. So we know he too was conceived during the war. Cat can't tell which baby is older when she arrives at Winterfell and so they must be very close in age indeed because young babies have a very specific developmental timeline and age can be ascertained very easily within the first year when comparing two or more. A 3 month old will look and behave very differently to a 6 month old for example. Cat travelled to Winterfell soon after the end of the war and we know the war lasted about 12 months. Subtract 9 from 12 and you are left with 3. Meaning Robb can not be any more than 3 months old and is likely much younger. Given that the battle of the bells and thus his conception did not happen at the very beginning of the war but most likely a few months into it. Especially when we take into account his birth year is 283. In order to push Robb's birthday into 283 his conception can take place no earlier than month 4 of 282.  So when Cat arrives at WF with Robb he is in most likelihood only a couple of months old. Again No way can anyone mistake a baby for being the same age as theirs if they're more than a matter of weeks older at that stage.  Jon has to have been conceived at the same time as Robb give or take a fortnight either side.

The only reason to try to piss about attempting to prove Jon is older or younger than he is is to refute R+L=J and that just doesn't work for everything else in the story. Thematically, with Ned's thoughts and feelings about Jon, Rhaegar etc. The multitude of hints and foreshadowing, or Lyanna's dying of a fever in her bed of blood. 

I don't think it is possible that the Battle of the Bells took place in the first three months of the war.  So either Catelyn is mistaken about when the Battle of the Bells occurred, or her marriage to Ned took place shortly before the Battle of the Trident. She may very well be mistaken -- she thinks her and Lysa's marriage were the price for Hoster Tully joining the Rebellion, but we also know that Hoster fought with Ned at the Battle of the Bells.  It would be pretty strange if Hoster had fought in a major battle like that but then said he had not yet decided whether to join the rebels.  

Either way, the Battle of the Bells took place shortly before the Trident.  We know this because Jaime tells us what happened immediately after that battle:  Lewyn Martell was sent to meet Dornish troops who were already marching up the Boneway; Rhaegar returned from the south; and Barristan Selmy and Jon Darry went to Stony Sept to gather the remains of the defeated royal army.  Jaime tells us all of those things happened at the same time, and they must have happened right after the Battle of the Bells because defeated/leaderless armies don't just wait around the battlefield, they go home.  

And if Catelyn really did get married after the Battle of the Bells and that is what caused Hoster Tully to call his banners, that is more proof it happened right before the Trident.  Because Hoster called up Lord Frey right before the Trident, and the Late Lord Frey arrived right after the battle ended.  It was at least plausible that Lord Frey had taken that long to get organized if he was called a week or two before the Trident, but if he was called three months into the war and showed up six months later claiming that is  how long it took to muster his men, that would have been ridiculous. 

We also know that the Battle of the Bells didn't happen three months into the war because all of the following happened prior to that Battle:  Aerys killed Brandon and Rickard, and called for Ned's and Robert's heads; Battle of Gulltown; Ned makes his way, partly on foot, to Winterfell from the Vale; Ned calls his banners (which takes Robb two weeks in AGOT); Ned marches his forces down to the South; Robert escapes to Storm's End and fights three battles at Summerhall; Robert goes back to Storm's End and feasts his defeated Lords over a period of time; Robert is defeated in battle by Randall Tarly; Robert finds his way to Stony Sept; and meanwhile, Ned, Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully join forces and make their way to Stony Sept.  There is no way all of that took place within the space of three months. 

All of this ties together well:  the most likely scenario is that the Battle of the Bells, Ned's wedding, and the conception of both Jon and Robb took place late in the war, shortly before the Battle of the Trident.  The year that Ned and Catelyn were apart after their wedding started a little before the Trident and ended when Ned met back up with Catelyn a year later, either at Riverrun or Winterfell.  During the intervening period, King's Landing was sacked, Robert became king, and Ned was tasked with a mopping up operation in the South.  And don't forget that the Rebellion did not end for 9 months or so after the Sack, because we know that Dany was already born when Stannis took Dragonstone and finished the war.

I think your final point is Jon and Robb must be close in age or Catelyn would have noticed they were at different developmental stages.  Whether that idea even occurred to GRRM or not, in the real world, two sixth-month old children (even twins) can be at very different stages.  Some children crawl at 6 months and some reach 10+ months without crawling.  

Which leads me back to where I started:  we don't know whether Jon or Robb is older.  I'll just add that their relative ages tell us nothing about R+L=J, but R+L=J is a lot more likely if Jon was born a few months after the Sack than it is if he was born two weeks to two weeks after.