Is Jon older or younger than Robb?

[Bitterblooms]

On 5/2/2018 at 9:16 AM, Corvo the Crow said:

Many inconsistencies on this and not all are purposefully made I think.

If, Jon is older than Robb however, there must be a second baby to explain Lyanna's bloody bed. And we have no candidate for that. Allyria is a possibility but she is more likely to be Ashara's, being kept with as a Dayne.

Unless... she is Arthur and Lyanna's. The crack deepens!

I realize that the age difference we are talking about us months, not weeks, but I think it's important to point out that a postpartum hemhorage can happen WEEKS after the baby is born. Dying in a "bed of blood" related to birth does not mean her baby was just born hours before. 

[Bitterblooms]

On 5/3/2018 at 8:50 AM, Lady Winter Rose said:

I just want to note few things:

1) Robb was Cat's first child

2) There aren't any expert pediatricians in Westeros

3) Even today, people may take mistake when telling other babies age.

 

 

Here in Croatia, there were few abandoned babies with unknown identity and people gave wrong estimate on one baby age I believe.

 

I'm firm R+L=J believer, but Martin seems pissed out every time somebody mention this.

True. My son was twice the size of my sister's when they were both 2 months old (at different times, I looked back through picture comparisons). My son was like 14 pounds, hers 8. Mine was rolling over. Hers was babbling. By 6 months mine was sitting up on his own and playing with stuff. Hers is 5 months and not even close to supporting himself. Plus if a baby is born prematurely that throws a wrench in everything.

I agree that I think I could tell the difference between a 3 month and 6 month old, usually, but I'm not convinced GRRM could or would expect others to. Its a flimsy thing to base a theory or year down a theory on. 

[FictionIsntReal]

On 5/1/2018 at 1:18 PM, Widowmaker 811 said:

In so far as to the original question, well, there is a theory that Jon is a lot older than Ned presented him to be.  Poor Leuwin had to make an excuse that bastards grow up faster than true born children.  There is a very good chance that Jon is older than Ned claimed.  

So under this theory, Maester Luwin knew the truth but lied to Cat? Is it likely that he also knew Jon's true parentage and perhaps other maesters do as well?

[Corvo the Crow]

14 hours ago, Bitterblooms said:

True. My son was twice the size of my sister's when they were both 2 months old (at different times, I looked back through picture comparisons). My son was like 14 pounds, hers 8. Mine was rolling over. Hers was babbling. By 6 months mine was sitting up on his own and playing with stuff. Hers is 5 months and not even close to supporting himself. Plus if a baby is born prematurely that throws a wrench in everything.

I agree that I think I could tell the difference between a 3 month and 6 month old, usually, but I'm not convinced GRRM could or would expect others to. Its a flimsy thing to base a theory or year down a theory on. 

According tothis cruising around objects is advanced skills for 8 months that a few babies can do. I was doing it when I was 6-7 months old but then again I was born larger than an average baby, taller and weighing more, so possibly more developed. As you say not all babies are same even if they are of an age.

There's no real way of telling which baby is older at a glance, especially in a medieval setting.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

20 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

snip  

 

That was a HUGE post but nothing in it changes anything. Jon has to have been born within ten days of Ned turning up at the ToJ. Because Lyanna has given birth in her bed of blood and died of Puerperal fever.  Dany was born 9 months after the sack. Because we know when she was conceived. This is in line with what GRRM has said.  

 Ned lifted the siege at Storms end on the way to Dorne and then fought the KG. Those are the battles referred to.  Stannis attacked DS 9 months after the war finished. War is the fighting between two or more opposing forces Rhaella wasn't fighting anyone she was sitting at DS waiting for her baby to arrive and probably hoping one day to gather enough support to challenge Robert. 

We know Jon & Robb were not 6 months old when Cat met Jon, because she herself tells us taht she set out to WF when the war ended. And that Jon was already there when she arrived. We know Robb was born 9 months after her wedding to Ned and the says she and Ned were apart for a year. 

AGOT Catelyn II

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they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father's castle at Riverrun. 

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When the wars were over at last, and Catelyn rode to Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse had already taken up residence.

So 12 months - 9 months = 3 months. Robb was no more than 3 months when she next saw Ned. She rode to WF but yet Jon was already there, so we know Jon must have travelled by ship. 

It takes roughly 2 months for Ned & Co to travel from WF to the Ruby Ford according to the best efforts at a timeline we have and the RF is roughly the same distance to WF as RR. They sit around the same area on a map but there would be some additional time added as RR is off the main branch of the KR. So lets assume Robb is slap bang in the middle of the possible age range and is 10 weeks old.  The differences at that stage are really blatant, and babies born to medieval women did not come out at 8/9/10/11 lbs like some modern women's do, this increase and consequential huge variance in birth weight is down to modern diets. The average size prior to modern diets was 6-7lbs. And was pretty consistent. If Jon was more than a couple of weeks different in age to Robb it would show at that age. Not just in size but in developmental mile stones too. 

You also have to take into account authors intent. He wrote that they looked of an age because he wanted to convey something to the reader. Either that Cat is an idiot who doesn't know how long a year and can't tell if one baby a is wildly older than the other.  Or that Jon & Robb are very close in age. I know which I think is more likely. 

GRRM has said don't get too hung up on travel times so whilst it might seem absurd that some journeys take much shorter times than they should we should not assume that means the text is misleading us. 

SSM 17/04/2008.

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I have deliberately tried to be vague about such things, so I don't have obsessive fans with rulers measuring distances on the map and telling me Ned couldn't get from X to Y in the time I say he did.

However, if you really must know, you can figure out the distances for yourself. The Wall is a hundred leagues long. A league is three miles. Go from there.

But if you turn up any mistakes in travel times by using that measure, let it be your secret.

Your long winded post relied far too heavily on stretching out the travel times we have in the books using the scale of Westeros as a reason. But GRRM has told us not to do that.

Your huge exercise in circular thinking doesn't change what we know from the text/GRRM's own mouth.   

 

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 A third is that the child is Young Griff/Aegon.  I am partial to the theory that Aegon's parents are Lyanna and Rhaegar and that Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne.  In that scenario, Jon could be Aegon's twin brother or he could be Ned and Ashara's son.  Either way, the Aegon had to be hidden, and possibly Jon as well.  Ashara, with her purple eyes, took the child with purple eyes, and Ned took the one that looked like a Stark.  And it would be fitting if we find out that Ashara, like Gilly, left her own child to look after the royal (bastard?) baby.

If fAegon is the child of Lyanna & Rhaegar  or Ned & Ashara's explain Illyrio Mopatis & Varys's roles and motivations for crowning him King of Westeros? And explain why the GC have broken contracts to support him? Lastly explain why Ned never thinks about him or Ashara Dayne? 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

22 hours ago, Bitterblooms said:

I realize that the age difference we are talking about us months, not weeks, but I think it's important to point out that a postpartum hemhorage can happen WEEKS after the baby is born. Dying in a "bed of blood" related to birth does not mean her baby was just born hours before. 

The fact Ned says she had a fever implies it was puerperal fever which killed Lyanna. The term bed of blood just means birthing bed. Childbed fever is what killed Jayne Seymour and this is likely GRRM's inspiration here. It kills between 24 hours and 10 days post partum. 

 

 

[Lady Winter Rose]

1 hour ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

The fact Ned says she had a fever implies it was puerperal fever which killed Lyanna. The term bed of blood just means birthing bed. Childbed fever is what killed Jayne Grey and this is likely GRRM's inspiration here. It kills between 24 hours and 10 days post partum. 

 

 

Did you mix Jane Grey with Jane Seymour? Jane Grey was Nine Days Queen

[SFDanny]

On 5/1/2018 at 8:27 PM, JaneSnow said:

But Jon wasn't 15 at the time of the winterfell feast, he was still fourteen. And during the "that is why I read so much" speech from Tyrion on the way to the wall, Tyrion asks how old Jon is and Jon says he is fourteen. Bran confirms that both are 'of an age' with each on in her first pov chapter, Jon is confirmed to be 14 in the chapter mentioned earlier. Later on in a Jon pov he mentions his name day having passed, and after that Bran mentions Robb being currently 15 as well. 

All of this is true, and I would add that both Ned and Catelyn make it clear that according to their stories of the time that Jon was conceived after Ned had left Catelyn pregnant with Robb. So, all the information clearly referencing Jon and Robb's ages put Robb as the older.

Of course, if R+L=J is true, all of the above could be false. During the immediate aftermath of the Battle of the Bells we know at least two things to be true. Jon Arryn and Ned Stark have a double wedding with the daughters of Lord Hoster Tully, and King Aerys exiles his Hand, Lord Jon Connington, and sends Ser Gerold Hightower to find Rhaegar and bring him back to King's Landing.

All of which raises the possibility that before Lyanna and Rhaegar are separated is she left pregnant with Jon? If so is he conceived before Robb is conceived in Riverrun. The one real bit of evidence that points to Jon being the older is Martin's famous remark that Jon is "eight or nine months older than Dany or thereabouts." Because of this, many people believe Jon is born from about the time of the sack of King"s Landing (a likely late "August" to early "September"date) to a month or a month and a half later. Given that Robb's name day seems to fall in the "October" to early "November" time frame, this would raise the possibility of Jon being a month or two older than Robb. Not that Jon being older makes much difference to each character's claim, but it would point to an alternate history we have yet to see confirmed.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

1 hour ago, Lady Winter Rose said:

Did you mix Jane Grey with Jane Seymour? Jane Grey was Nine Days Queen

I know! I realised this a minute ago whilst pealing the sprouts for Sunday dinner. D'oh! I'll amend the post. 

[JaneSnow]

Also the thing about the bloody bed, could it have been the flux?

[Corvo the Crow]

4 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

So lets assume Robb is slap bang in the middle of the possible age range and is 10 weeks old.  The differences at that stage are really blatant, and babies born to medieval women did not come out at 8/9/10/11 lbs like some modern women's do, this increase and consequential huge variance in birth weight is down to modern diets. The average size prior to modern diets was 6-7lbs. And was pretty consistent. If Jon was more than a couple of weeks different in age to Robb it would show at that age. Not just in size but in developmental mile stones too. 

Cat thinks Ashara as a candidate for being Jon's mother though.

For Ashara to be his mother Jon must be older than Robb since Ned can't impregnate Ashara in a reasonable timeframe for her to give birth to Jon and him to settle Jon in WF even before cat.

 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

11 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Cat thinks Ashara as a candidate for being Jon's mother though.

For Ashara to be his mother Jon must be older than Robb since Ned can't impregnate Ashara in a reasonable timeframe for her to give birth to Jon and him to settle Jon in WF even before cat.

 

I don't think it likely Ashara was his mother. 

[Corvo the Crow]

23 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

I don't think it likely Ashara was his mother. 

Neither do I. But do you know who thinks it likely? Catelyn, who saw both babies, is mother of one and a character from the story.

 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

6 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Neither do I. But do you know who thinks it likely? Catelyn, who saw both babies, is mother of one and a character from the story.

 

This is irrelevant to who she thinks was the boys mother though. In order to think Ashara might have been his mother she only has to think Ned might have slept with her, she bases this notion on rumours heard at WF. But she also thinks the mother might have been some woman met by chance or a camp follower.  The fact she thinks it at all is a red herring, put there by the author. But when you think about it is unlikely. Ditto Cersei thinking it. Just like the fishermans daughter is a red herring which again doesn't work when you consider things. The fact he has Cat think maybe it was Ashara Dayne after hearing whispers that Ned loved her doesn't correlate to Cat being unable to tell the age of a baby or understand what a year is. I mean one is a reasonable thing to wonder about the other two would involve being an imbecile. Cat has no idea who the woman was only that Ned must have loved her fiercely. Which again is a clue because he did she was his little sister. 

Ned didn't have opportunity to meet up with Ashara that we know of and the logistics of it would be impossible  that he is on campaign and she has no way of sending a raven to find out where he is camped or knowing he'd still be there in several weeks time or where he might end up being next. 

And if Jon is her baby conceived at Harrenhall then he is a shit load older than Robb and would be very obviously so. Besides which we know it unlikely as Barristan likes Ned. And he knows which Stark it was who got her pregnant. Clue; it was Brandon. 

There is no reason for Ned to hide who Jon's Mum was if it was Ashara as she is dead.  we are told she had already had a baby out of wedlock so he wouldn't even be saving her reputation. And if Jon was older than Robb he only needs say so and he is no longer branded a cheat, his bastard is still a bastard and still no threat to Robb outside of Cat's paranoia. The fact he doesn't pass Jon off as conceived before the wedding only shows Ned was trying to lie as little as possible. 

[Megorova]

26 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

The one real bit of evidence that points to Jon being the older is Martin's famous remark that Jon is "eight or nine months older than Dany or thereabouts." Because of this, many people believe Jon is born from about the time of the sack of King"s Landing (a likely late "August" to early "September"date) to a month or a month and a half later. Given that Robb's name day seems to fall in the "October" to early "November" time frame, this would raise the possibility of Jon being a month or two older than Robb.

It is known that Dany was born in 284, so if she is 8-9 months younger than Jon, then it means that he was conceived 17-18 months prior Dany's birth (8-9 months of their age difference + 9 months of Lyanna's pregnancy = 17-18), which also means, that Jon most likely was conceived in 282 (possibility of that is 7/8, and 1/8 is possibility that Jon was conceived in January of 283). Ned's wedding with Cat happened in early 283, after the Battle of the Bells, that was first major battle of 283. Which means that Jon is several months older than Robb (or maybe not much older, but there's a way to establish his age thru another method of calculation).

Shortly after Drogo's death and birth of Dany's dragons (seems that it happened on eve of 298/299), while they were traveling thru Red Waste, Dany was still 14.

ACOK, Dany I: "She felt older than her fourteen years." <- this was prior they have arrived to abandonded city.

ACOK, Dany II: "I have counted only fifteen name days" <- it was on the same day when they have arrived to Qarth. Thus she has turned 15 between Drogo's death and arrival to Qarth.

ACOK, Dany III: "Half a year gone, that man could scarcely wake fire from dragonglass." <- that firemage's powers were rising after birth of the dragons. Which means, that Dany's dragons were born not more than six months ago. Which means, that this scene happened not later than June of 299. And because by that time Dany has already turned 15 years old, even prior her arrival to Qarth, and after arriving there has already spent there probably a few months, it means that Dany was born somewhere between January and June of 284.

17-18 months before January-June of 284 is from January of 283 or December of 282 (if counting 17-18 months from June of 284) and to June or August of 282 (if counting from January of 284). So time of Jon's conceivement is between June 282 and January 283, which means that he was born between March and October of 283. So unless Ned and Cat married in January of 283, then Jon is older than Robb, because January of 283 is the latest date, when Jon could have been conceived.

[Corvo the Crow]

17 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Ned didn't have opportunity to meet up with Ashara that we know of and the logistics of it would be impossible  that he is on campaign and she has no way of sending a raven to find out where he is camped or knowing he'd still be there in several weeks time or where he might end up being next. 

Exactly my point. Ashara can't be the mother yet Catelyn thinks her a possibility. This means cat can't tell the age difference between two babies regardless of if one is bigger or has passed more milestones or not.

Brandon + Ashara isn't a thing.

Barristan thinks "Stark", not Brandon Stark and when last name is used alone without a member of that house present it's usually used for head of the house.

[Angel Eyes]

28 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Neither do I. But do you know who thinks it likely? Catelyn, who saw both babies, is mother of one and a character from the story.

 

So how does a rumor regarding Ashara Dayne and Jon Snow reach the ears of someone like Cersei Lannister?

[The Ned's Little Girl]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Cat thinks Ashara as a candidate for being Jon's mother though.

For Ashara to be his mother Jon must be older than Robb since Ned can't impregnate Ashara in a reasonable timeframe for her to give birth to Jon and him to settle Jon in WF even before cat.

 

I think it's more precise to say that Cat wonders if Ashara is Jon's mother. She hears some local gossip and asks Ned about it.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

26 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Exactly my point. Ashara can't be the mother yet Catelyn thinks her a possibility. This means cat can't tell the age difference between two babies regardless of if one is bigger or has passed more milestones or not.

Brandon + Ashara isn't a thing.

Barristan thinks "Stark", not Brandon Stark and when last name is used alone without a member of that house present it's usually used for head of the house.

This doesn't at all prove she can't tell the age of a baby. That's ridiculous.  If Jon was the baby conceived at Harrenhall he'd be about 12-18 months old when she met him. Even suggesting she couldn't tell the age difference between a 2-3 month old and a toddler is absurd.  So to think Ashara might be his mum she has to have not thought it through properly. She is going on rumours heard third hand through servants and clearly has not applied critical thinking skills to the idea. 

Brandon & Ashara is probably a thing. We know Stark was the name of the man she turned to. And that is a fancy indirect way of saying shagged as Barristan wonders if she might have turned to him instead had he won the tourney. There is a theme in world of winning a tourney resulting in winning a Lady's favour.  And we know Brandon liked deflowering Virgin maids and had no care about ruining a maid of high birth. We also know Ashara only danced with shy Ned after Brandon asked her to. 

Stark can not apply to Rickard as he was not at Harrenhall. And It can't apply to Ned as Barristan has no negative thoughts or feelings about him, not in his POV's later on nor in the chapters we view him through in the earlier books. In fact the only reference Barristan makes regarding Ned is this to Sansa. 

AGOT Sansa I

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"Well spoken, child," said the old man in white. "As befits the daughter of Eddard Stark. I am honored to know you, however irregular the manner of our meeting. I am Ser Barristan Selmy, of the Kingsguard." He bowed.

Which comes across as complimentary. 

And in their own interactions nothing comes across as hinting animosity between them. 

AGOT Eddard V

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"Ser Barristan is as valiant and honorable as any man in King's Landing." Ned had come to have a deep respect for the aged, white-haired Lord Commander of the Kingsguard.

AGOT Eddard VIi

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"The king means to fight in the melee today," Ser Barristan said as they were passing Ser Meryn's shield, its paint sullied by a deep gash where Loras Tyrell's lance had scarred the wood as he drove him from his saddle.

"Yes," Ned said grimly. Jory had woken him last night to bring him that news. Small wonder he had slept so badly.

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The boys tripped over each other in their haste to be quit of the tent. Robert managed to keep a stern face until they were gone. Then he dropped back into a chair, shaking with laughter.

Ser Barristan Selmy chuckled with him. Even Eddard Stark managed a smile. 

 

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Ser Barristan Selmy spoke up. "Your Grace," he said, "it is not seemly that the king should ride into the melee. It would not be a fair contest. Who would dare strike you?"

Robert seemed honestly taken aback. "Why, all of them, damn it. If they can. And the last man left standing …"

… will be you," Ned finished. He saw at once that Selmy had hit the mark. The dangers of the melee were only a savor to Robert, but this touched on his pride. "Ser Barristan is right. There's not a man in the Seven Kingdoms who would dare risk your displeasure by hurting you."

The king rose to his feet, his face flushed. "Are you telling me those prancing cravens will let me win?"

"For a certainty," Ned said, and Ser Barristan Selmy bowed his head in silent accord.

 

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Cats." Ned sighed. "Perhaps it was a mistake to hire this Braavosi. If you like, I will ask Jory to take over your lessons. Or I might have a quiet word with Ser Barristan. He was the finest sword in the Seven Kingdoms in his youth."

AGOT Eddard VIII

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Mercy is never a mistake, Lord Renly," Ned replied. "On the Trident, Ser Barristan here cut down a dozen good men, Robert's friends and mine. When they brought him to us, grievously wounded and near death, Roose Bolton urged us to cut his throat, but your brother said, 'I will not kill a man for loyalty, nor for fighting well,' and sent his own maester to tend Ser Barristan's wounds." 

snip. 

Ser Barristan Selmy raised his pale blue eyes from the table and said, "Your Grace, there is honor in facing an enemy on the battlefield, but none in killing him in his mother's womb. Forgive me, but I must stand with Lord Eddard."

 

AGOT Eddard XIII

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Outside the door, Ser Barristan Selmy still guarded the tower stairs. "Maester Pycelle has given Robert the milk of the poppy," Ned told him. "See that no one disturbs his rest without leave from me."

"It shall be as you command, my lord." Ser Barristan seemed old beyond his years. "I have failed my sacred trust."

"Even the truest knight cannot protect a king against himself," Ned said. "Robert loved to hunt boar. I have seen him take a thousand of them." He would stand his ground without flinching, his legs braced, the great spear in his hands, and as often as not he would curse the boar as it charged, and wait until the last possible second, until it was almost on him, before he killed it with a single sure and savage thrust. "No one could know this one would be his death."

Non of these interactions point to ill feeling towards Ned and even later when Cersei orders him to arrest Ned he hesitates which doesn't align with the behaviour of a man who disliked or thought of Ned as dishonorable and had Ned had sex with Ashara at Harrenhall Barristan would not be so cordial with him Ashara was ruined by the scandal and he loved her. 

Add in that Ned was not the type of man to do that, and that he never not even once thinks of her in his own POV not once. Even when Cersei brings her up he doesn't give her a passing thought. 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

So how does a rumor regarding Ashara Dayne and Jon Snow reach the ears of someone like Cersei Lannister?

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"I shall wear that as a badge of honor," Ned said dryly.

"Honor," she spat. "How dare you play the noble lord with me! What do you take me for? You've a bastard of your own, I've seen him. Who was the mother, I wonder? Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned? A whore? Or was it the grieving sister, the Lady Ashara? She threw herself into the sea, I'm told. Why was that? For the brother you slew, or the child you stole? Tell me, my honorable Lord Eddard, how are you any different from Robert, or me, or Jaime?"

"For a start," said Ned, "I do not kill children. You would do well to listen, my lady. I shall say this only once. When the king returns from his hunt, I intend to lay the truth before him. You must be gone by then. You and your children, all three, and not to Casterly Rock. If I were you, I should take ship for the Free Cities, or even farther, to the Summer Isles or the Port of Ibben. As far as the winds blow."

AGOT Eddard XII. 

It seems to me that Cersei heard rumours that Ashara's baby was fathered by a Stark or that Eddard Stark had admired her at Harrenhall. or some such. Cersei was not at the Tourney nor was she in KL following it. Tywin took her away to CR in a huff after Aerys's appointed Jaime to the KG. But in the years following gossip could have reached her eventually about Ashara's pregnancy and the name Stark floated around. She's not close enough to the events to do the maths and grasp that Jon is too young to be that baby. 

It's a simple enough way for GRRM to drop in the red herring again via a character who was not close enough to those involved to know the truth.