Is Jon older or younger than Robb?

[Bitterblooms]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

So how does a rumor regarding Ashara Dayne and Jon Snow reach the ears of someone like Cersei Lannister?

Don't you think the other noble houses of westeros might gossip about an acknowledged bastard of a warden of any region? It seems like a juicy tidbit to discuss. I imagine more than one name came up, but with the addition of a suicide it becomes a morbidly juicier bit.

[Corvo the Crow]

24 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

This doesn't at all prove she can't tell the age of a baby. That's ridiculous.  If Jon was the baby conceived at Harrenhall he'd be about 12-18 months old when she met him. Even suggesting she couldn't tell the age difference between a 2-3 month old and a toddler is absurd.  So to think Ashara might be his mum she has to have not thought it through properly. She is going on rumours heard third hand through servants and clearly has not applied critical thinking skills to the idea. 

 

No need for it to happen in Harrenhal. Ned, Lyanna and Brandon were all either in Riverlands or around(Vale for Ned) even many months after. Also it took her a fortnight to ask, she didn't give any thought to it at all for 15 days?

 

Quote

That cut deep. Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband's soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys's Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes. It had taken her a fortnight to marshal her courage, but finally, in bed one night, Catelyn had asked her husband the truth of it, asked him to his face.

 

 

28 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

And we know Brandon liked deflowering Virgin maids and had no care about ruining a maid of high birth. We also know Ashara only danced with shy Ned after Brandon asked her to

Which maidS? We only know of Barbrey and she tells us that Brandon was going to marry her if not for Rickard.

30 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

In fact the only reference Barristan makes regarding Ned is this to Sansa. 

 

When interacting with Danaerys, Barristan goes as soft as possible on the truths about her father and even gives some small compliments.

34 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

And in their own interactions nothing comes across as hinting animosity between them. 

Ned's opinion is irrelevant, he didn't know Barristan's feelings, in fact no one did.

And on Barristan's end, there's no hint of bad feelings towards the mad king either. 

Joffrey dismissed him from the KG and ordered Ned the most honorable guy on Westeros dead and yet even on Joffrey he has few thoughts and none negative.

 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

4 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Cat thinks Ashara as a candidate for being Jon's mother though.

For Ashara to be his mother Jon must be older than Robb since Ned can't impregnate Ashara in a reasonable timeframe for her to give birth to Jon and him to settle Jon in WF even before cat.

I am certainly in the minority in this, and I am not looking to start a debate on genetics (because let's not go there), but I took that Ashara description from Cat, as Jon's eyes when he was really small as being a variance of purple before they settled on grey. Catelyn's thoughts about Jon growing to look more like Ned than her trueborn children for me indicates that Jon may not have looked much like Stark when he was a baby. I think she may have seen something in Jon that made her believe the rumors she heard around Winterfell.

[Megorova]

I did some highly speculative calculations (some dates are based on events during War of Roses):

Abduction of Lyanna Stark - 23 September 282.

Death of Benjen and Rickard Stark - 13 October 282.

Lyanna turned 16 years old - between 22 and 24 December, she was Capricorn.

Rhaegar's and Lyanna's wedding - 24 December.

Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, on night between 24 and 25 December of 282.

Battle of the Bells - 15 January 283.

Ned's and Cat's wedding - late February (or maybe 9 February, or 12 March) of 283.

Battle at Trident and Rhaegar's death - 10+ July.

Dany's conceivement, departure of Queen Rhaella to Dragonstone, Sack of King's Landing, Ned going to Storm's End and later from there to Dorne - August and late August.

Jon's birth - 25 September, he's a Libra.

Ned returned to King's Landing with Lyanna's body - 15 October.

Robb's birth - 23+ November of 283, seems that he was Sagittarius.

Dany's birth - 22+ May of 284, could be that she's a Gemini.

[FictionIsntReal]

One thing to note about Barristan's recollections about Ashara: they're not explicit that the Stark she "looked to" was also the man who dishonored her. He wonders if she might have looked to him instead if he had won the tourney and crowned her, and if these are separate events there's a wider time frame in which any dishonor might occur. I don't know how much longer everyone was still at Harrenhal after the crowning took place. It's also unclear what exactly it would have meant for Ashara to look to Selmy, given the restrictions of his vows, but again if these were separate events it could have occurred an unknown amount of time after the tourney.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

14 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

No need for it to happen in Harrenhal. Ned, Lyanna and Brandon were all either in Riverlands or around(Vale for Ned) even many months after. Also it took her a fortnight to ask, she didn't give any thought to it at all for 15 days?

 

 

 

Which maidS? We only know of Barbrey and she tells us that Brandon was going to marry her if not for Rickard.

When interacting with Danaerys, Barristan goes as soft as possible on the truths about her father and even gives some small compliments.

Ned's opinion is irrelevant, he didn't know Barristan's feelings, in fact no one did.

And on Barristan's end, there's no hint of bad feelings towards the mad king either. 

Joffrey dismissed him from the KG and ordered Ned the most honorable guy on Westeros dead and yet even on Joffrey he has few thoughts and none negative.

 

I have honestly had this discussion so many times and really can't be arsed with it any more. Why don't you build a case for it instead of asking me to prove it untrue. 

The reason people go about it the way you are. Saying hey this might be possible then sitting back and expecting others to show you how it isn't is that there is nothing in the text that supports it. 

The way writing a mystery works is by building hints into the text which when looked at together show the truth. The way you write  a red herring is to place clues which when examined closely do not add up. But which if taken at face value without consideration by the reader have the capacity to mislead. 

Ashara and Ned falls firmly into the latter. 

Errr Baristan thinks that he should have left Aerys to die in Duskendale. 

What has Joffrey got to do with how he feels about Ned? I gave lots of examples of Ned & Barristan having positive interactions which shw a mutual respect and even that they laughed together. That isn't the way a man like Barristan views a man who he believes deflowered the love of his life leaving her so ruined that she later killed herself. 

Honestly try to prove it instead of just saying it's possible. Use text and logic instead of conjecture and supposition. 

[Faera]

12 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

One thing to note about Barristan's recollections about Ashara: they're not explicit that the Stark she "looked to" was also the man who dishonored her. He wonders if she might have looked to him instead if he had won the tourney and crowned her, and if these are separate events there's a wider time frame in which any dishonor might occur. I don't know how much longer everyone was still at Harrenhal after the crowning took place. It's also unclear what exactly it would have meant for Ashara to look to Selmy, given the restrictions of his vows, but again if these were separate events it could have occurred an unknown amount of time after the tourney.

Oh, poor ol' Barry!

Ultimately, he's an old man looking back with regret over his life. He admits that no good could have come of telling Ashara his feelings and odds are a young woman like her wouldn't have returned those feelings anyway. She seems to have been the sort of young woman not wanting for male attention and she was hardly going to throw her lot in with a celibate Kingsguard old enough to be her father. Perhaps he vainly thinks that, had he won to crown her, she would have thought twice about dishonouring herself at Harrenhal.

...Truth is, I'm sceptical that poor Ashara got her rocks off with anyone or even had a baby. Seeing as I don't believe for a second it would be in Ned's character to do something like that (and I doubt he was romantically involved with her anyway), and while Brandon is more likely the "deflowerer", it is only speculative. I agree with @The Weirwoods Eyes though that perhaps the best indication that Ned wasn't the one who dishonoured Ashara is the fact Barristan seems to be very amiable towards Lord Eddard. For him to bluntly think of the one who dishonoured Ashara as just "Stark" is perhaps the strongest indicator it was Brandon who done-did-it if it happened.

Even then, it really could be that someone just started gossip about her. As I said, she seems like a girl who got a long of male attention.

[The Twinslayer]

On 5/6/2018 at 7:22 AM, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

That was a HUGE post but nothing in it changes anything. Jon has to have been born within ten days of Ned turning up at the ToJ. Because Lyanna has given birth in her bed of blood and died of Puerperal fever.  Dany was born 9 months after the sack. Because we know when she was conceived. This is in line with what GRRM has said.  

 Ned lifted the siege at Storms end on the way to Dorne and then fought the KG. Those are the battles referred to.  Stannis attacked DS 9 months after the war finished. War is the fighting between two or more opposing forces Rhaella wasn't fighting anyone she was sitting at DS waiting for her baby to arrive and probably hoping one day to gather enough support to challenge Robert. 

We know Jon & Robb were not 6 months old when Cat met Jon, because she herself tells us taht she set out to WF when the war ended. And that Jon was already there when she arrived. We know Robb was born 9 months after her wedding to Ned and the says she and Ned were apart for a year. 

AGOT Catelyn II

So 12 months - 9 months = 3 months. Robb was no more than 3 months when she next saw Ned. She rode to WF but yet Jon was already there, so we know Jon must have travelled by ship. 

It takes roughly 2 months for Ned & Co to travel from WF to the Ruby Ford according to the best efforts at a timeline we have and the RF is roughly the same distance to WF as RR. They sit around the same area on a map but there would be some additional time added as RR is off the main branch of the KR. So lets assume Robb is slap bang in the middle of the possible age range and is 10 weeks old.  The differences at that stage are really blatant, and babies born to medieval women did not come out at 8/9/10/11 lbs like some modern women's do, this increase and consequential huge variance in birth weight is down to modern diets. The average size prior to modern diets was 6-7lbs. And was pretty consistent. If Jon was more than a couple of weeks different in age to Robb it would show at that age. Not just in size but in developmental mile stones too. 

You also have to take into account authors intent. He wrote that they looked of an age because he wanted to convey something to the reader. Either that Cat is an idiot who doesn't know how long a year and can't tell if one baby a is wildly older than the other.  Or that Jon & Robb are very close in age. I know which I think is more likely. 

GRRM has said don't get too hung up on travel times so whilst it might seem absurd that some journeys take much shorter times than they should we should not assume that means the text is misleading us. 

SSM 17/04/2008.

Your long winded post relied far too heavily on stretching out the travel times we have in the books using the scale of Westeros as a reason. But GRRM has told us not to do that.

Your huge exercise in circular thinking doesn't change what we know from the text/GRRM's own mouth.   

 

If fAegon is the child of Lyanna & Rhaegar  or Ned & Ashara's explain Illyrio Mopatis & Varys's roles and motivations for crowning him King of Westeros? And explain why the GC have broken contracts to support him? Lastly explain why Ned never thinks about him or Ashara Dayne? 

The siege of Storm's End wasn't one of the battles Ned fought after the Sack, because we are told that Tyrell and Redwine surrendered without a fight.  So we need to include at least one other battle.  But the impression Ned gives is that there were several battles, not just two. 

The whole point of the SSM on which you base the belief that Jon is 8 or 9 months older than Dany is not to pinpoint Jon's birthdate.  If you go back and read it again, GRRM was responding to a reader who suggested that Cat was naive to believe that Ashara was Jon's mother because if Ned impregnated her during the Harrenhal tournament, Jon would be much older than Robb.  GRRM's very long-winded response was intended to refute that suggestion by demonstrating that the true timeline shows that Ned and Ashara could be Jon's parents.  

Also, I think you are misreading what Catelyn said about going to Winterfell after the Rebellion. You are relying on this quote from Cat:  "When the wars were over at last, and Catelyn rode to Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse had already taken up residence."  That does not say she went to Winterfell as soon as the war was over.  It just tells us that by the time she arrived at Winterfell, the "wars were over."  That implies that Stannis had already taken Dragonstone at that point, because the wars were not over until the last Targaryens had fled Westeros. 

That also makes sense if Ned was engaged in a long mopping up action in the South, which is what is implied when he says he left King's Landing to fight multiple battles.  If you want a sense of how long that took, consider how long it took Jaime to bring the Riverlands to heel after Robb Stark died, and how long it took to get Wyman Manderly to bend the knee.  I don't think Ned and Catelyn arrived at Winterfell until Robb was several months older than you think -- perhaps more than a year old, or even older. 

Regarding your questions about Aegon, the simple answer is that we don't have enough information yet to know the motives of Illyrio and Varys.  It is not GRRM's style to give us enough information to solve some mysteries -- he often gives insufficient information in one book before providing the needed information later.  For example, in AGOT, Arya witnesses a discussion between two people who appear to be Illyrio and Varys plotting about whatever their plan is.  If their plan is to seat a Blackfyre descendant on the Iron Throne, there is no way you could figure that out from the information available as of AGOT, because there is no mention of the Blackfyres in AGOT.  GRRM probably had not even thought up the Blackfyres at that point, because the appendix to AGOT mentions the Dance of the Dragons but has no mention of the Blackfyre rebellions.  So the simple answer is that we can speculate on the Varys/Illyrio motives and on what the Gold Company is up to, but I don't think there is enough information for us to be confident about that.  

Consider a related issue:  Ashara Dayne.  She is obviously important to Jon's story.  The R+L=J theory provides no convincing explanation for what her importance is.  All we know is this.  Ned and Ashara had contact during the Harrenhal tournament, and there are rumors of an affair between the two of them taking place there.   If the SSM is to be believed, Ned and Ashara met up during the rebellion around 9 months before Jon was born.  Ned appears to have picked up Jon in Dorne toward the end of the rebellion, around the time he visited Starfall.  Ashara is rumored to have killed herself around that time, but the body was never found.  Ashara had purple eyes and her hair was dark (brown? black? blond?).  Barristan Selmy loved her and makes some ambiguous comments about her being dishonored and having a stillborn daughter.  She had a brother named Arthur (killed by Ned and Howland), a sister named Allyria, and a nephew named Ned who is now Lord of Starfall.  And there is conflicting information about where she lived and what her relationship to Elia was.  

That is a lot of build up if we are going to learn that she is just a pretty lady who coincidentally crossed Ned Stark's path a few times before killing herself.  Much more likely is that she disappeared after Ned arrived at Starfall with Lyanna and Rhaegar's baby because she took that baby into hiding.  

Lastly, I don't know why Ned never thinks of Ashara in the limited time we have his POV, especially since she is widely believed to be (and may very well be) the mother of his bastard.  Then again, I don't know why he never thinks about his mother or father.  You would think that he would think of them when he was languishing in the Black Cells, but if he did, we don't know about it because GRRM chose not to show it to us.  

[FictionIsntReal]

14 hours ago, Faera said:

...Truth is, I'm sceptical that poor Ashara got her rocks off with anyone or even had a baby. Seeing as I don't believe for a second it would be in Ned's character to do something like that (and I doubt he was romantically involved with her anyway), and while Brandon is more likely the "deflowerer", it is only speculative. I agree with @The Weirwoods Eyes though that perhaps the best indication that Ned wasn't the one who dishonoured Ashara is the fact Barristan seems to be very amiable towards Lord Eddard. For him to bluntly think of the one who dishonoured Ashara as just "Stark" is perhaps the strongest indicator it was Brandon who done-did-it if it happened.

One way to reconcile some degree of a relationship between Ned & Ashara with Barristan's high regard would be if Brandon deflowers her, but can't marry her since he's betrothed to Catelyn. Ned figures he can help to make up for Brandon's behavior (which might reflect badly on his family since the Daynes are also an old & noble family) and do right by Ashara by offering himself as a husband to her. His father's approval might be necessary (along with her family's, though other noble women have settled for men-at-arms in such a situation whereas even the "spare" Stark would be a respectable catch), but since Ned hadn't been betrothed yet there at least wasn't a definite obstacle to it. Nothing definite needs to have come of it, but the end result could be that Barristan's opinion of Ned and the perception of his involvement with Ashara wouldn't be in conflict. turtle-paced* has written about how it would serve as a thematic parallel if Ned had been planning on marrying Ashara, just as Catelyn had been planning on marrying Brandon. The parallel works (and, as she noted, it better helps explain some things), with the hindrance being that Ned was too shy to ask her dance himself (compared to the bold Brandon), and I thought of this as a possible way to fit those things together. It would additionally fit Tywin's claim about Robb being his father's son due to marrying Jeyne Westerling after deflowering her, though Tywin could have just been talking about being honorable in general rather than specifically regarding marriage (since Ned married for a wartime alliance whereas Robb broke his betrothal made for one).

*I should note that one of the things I like about her take on Ned is that he's "not [...] Ned Stark the paragon of humanity", but a product of his society. And a product of that society might genuinely consider a noble woman damaged goods if she was known to be deflowered by another man (one she wasn't even betrothed to). So this might require him to be an unrealistically good guy fitting modern sensibilities (even if he was also "doing good while doing well" by marrying a young woman he was genuinely into). I tend to roll my eyes at the argument that there's no way Ned could have EVER fathered a bastard because he's just too honorable, even if it was just once as a young man and unrepresentative of the rest of his life (and I'm not saying this to argue against R+L=J, except that other characters aren't idiots for accepting Ned's story). So perhaps I should also roll my eyes slightly at my own theory here.

[SFDanny]

On 5/6/2018 at 5:08 PM, Megorova said:

I did some highly speculative calculations (some dates are based on events during War of Roses):

Abduction of Lyanna Stark - 23 September 282.

Death of Benjen and Rickard Stark - 13 October 282.

Lyanna turned 16 years old - between 22 and 24 December, she was Capricorn.

Rhaegar's and Lyanna's wedding - 24 December.

Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, on night between 24 and 25 December of 282.

Battle of the Bells - 15 January 283.

Ned's and Cat's wedding - late February (or maybe 9 February, or 12 March) of 283.

Battle at Trident and Rhaegar's death - 10+ July.

Dany's conceivement, departure of Queen Rhaella to Dragonstone, Sack of King's Landing, Ned going to Storm's End and later from there to Dorne - August and late August.

Jon's birth - 25 September, he's a Libra.

Ned returned to King's Landing with Lyanna's body - 15 October.

Robb's birth - 23+ November of 283, seems that he was Sagittarius.

Dany's birth - 22+ May of 284, could be that she's a Gemini.

I like some of your speculation very much, but I'd remind you that Ned tells us that the sack of King's Landing is almost a year from the start of the war, and the start of the war isn't the kidnapping of Lyanna. It's when Lord Arryn raises his banners in rebellion in response to Aerys's demand for Ned and Robert's heads. I've always believed Martin is having his characters. for the most part, speak in estimated time. By which I mean the start of the war may be earlier than September/August of 282. My guess is that Jon Arryn raises his banners in the middle of 282, and the abduction is sometime in the first three months of the year. I won't hazard a guess about Martin using dates from the War of the Roses as corollaries for his fictional events.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

19 hours ago, Faera said:

I agree with @The Weirwoods Eyes though that perhaps the best indication that Ned wasn't the one who dishonoured Ashara is the fact Barristan seems to be very amiable towards Lord Eddard. For him to bluntly think of the one who dishonoured Ashara as just "Stark" is perhaps the strongest indicator it was Brandon who done-did-it if it happened.

Even then, it really could be that someone just started gossip about her. As I said, she seems like a girl who got a long of male attention.

Exactly! Barristan's harsh Stark, is not in line with a man talking of a guy he laughed with in recent times. Or a man who hesitated in following his  orders to arrest. Who shared amiable conversation with. 

The evidence against Brandon.

hot headed and impulsive

Thoughtless

had no care for endangering a woman's honour; not even his own sisters. He called Rhaegar out publicly rather than trying diplomatic and private methods for discovering her whereabouts, which would have protected her reputation. 

Liked the look of blood on his sword; that's a euphemism for those who might have missed it. It means he liked deflowering virgins.

wasn't faithful to Cat during their betrothal

was bold enough to approach Ashara;asking her to dance with Ned

Ashara liked him enough to dance with his baby brother at his request

Barristan says it was Stark who dishonoured her; Barristan has reason to know he was both at Harrenhall and watching her closely and within the royal court in order to hear any gossip.The word Dishonour is used th

 

Though yes you make a point re could just have been malicious gossip. I know I was down as a slag at school before I'd even kissed a boy; pitfalls of having massive boobs and being blonde.

But I do think in this case she did, Barristan seems to have followed the gossip and news of Ashara's pregnancy even after she left the royal court. Elia resided on Dragonstone so he must have heard of the pregnancy via communications from Rhaegar & Elia's court there with Aery's and Rhaella's in the RK.  Not hard  all it takes is Elia writing to her mother in law to express disappointment at having had to dismiss Ashara. and asking for recommendations for a new lady in waiting. And then Barristan overhears a conversation or a maid of Rhaella's gossips. Then he also knows that she had a daughter who was still born. So again he was watching for communications pertaining to Ashara, and again it is just a matter of a raven from Starfall to Rhaella say ( I imagine that Ashara's mother might have been of an age with her. A former lady in waiting herself etc.) relaying the tragedy. And again Barristan made it his business to know. 

So I doubt it was just a rumour that she got pregnant at Harrenhall. As had it been she'd not have been dismissed, he'd still make it his business to find out what was happening with Ashara and so he'd have discovered the truth.  That she was not with child. 

I think though that Alyria Dayne might turn out to have a long face or grey eyes if we meet her in TWOW via Areoh Hotah following Darkstar to Starfall. 

[Lord of Oldstones]

Who even cares?Robb is dead & Jon is in coma like conditions.Jon is logical since Rhaeghar & Lyanna eloped muchhh earlier than when Ned married Cat then again after the end of war when Ned reached TOJ Lyanna was dying with pool of blood! And we don’t know date of Ned Cat marriage or the interval of war 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

21 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

The siege of Storm's End wasn't one of the battles Ned fought after the Sack, because we are told that Tyrell and Redwine surrendered without a fight.  So we need to include at least one other battle.  But the impression Ned gives is that there were several battles, not just two. 

Wasn't it? Just because they surrendered easily doesn't make it not a battle. I think you are being way too pedantic about this. Ned went there prepared to fight, they chose not to. it was a battle of wills to some degree. But never the less battles doesn't mean several it just means more than one. ToJ and lifting the siege. There is nothing in any books the main series of the companion text to suggest there were extra battles.  If this were the case GRRM would have had something mentioned in TWOAF or in the later volumes. 

 

21 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

The whole point of the SSM on which you base the belief that Jon is 8 or 9 months older than Dany is not to pinpoint Jon's birthdate.  If you go back and read it again, GRRM was responding to a reader who suggested that Cat was naive to believe that Ashara was Jon's mother because if Ned impregnated her during the Harrenhal tournament, Jon would be much older than Robb.  GRRM's very long-winded response was intended to refute that suggestion by demonstrating that the true timeline shows that Ned and Ashara could be Jon's parents.  

Maybe you'd like to quote the entire SSM then, because otherwise you are just asking me to accept your personal interpretation. 

21 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

Also, I think you are misreading what Catelyn said about going to Winterfell after the Rebellion. You are relying on this quote from Cat:  "When the wars were over at last, and Catelyn rode to Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse had already taken up residence."  That does not say she went to Winterfell as soon as the war was over.  It just tells us that by the time she arrived at Winterfell, the "wars were over."  That implies that Stannis had already taken Dragonstone at that point, because the wars were not over until the last Targaryens had fled Westeros. 

Jolly good. I think you are misreading it. The phrasing suggests she went to WF once the fighting stopped and that was long before Stannis took DS. You think it implies that, I don't. And I think given that everything you are relying on to prop up your interpretation is your own supposition and not from the text that it is a poor basis for that assumption. The war was over when Robert sat the IT and the fighting ceased. Taking DS was an army going to seize a pregnant woman and her little boy. 

21 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

That also makes sense if Ned was engaged in a long mopping up action in the South, which is what is implied when he says he left King's Landing to fight multiple battles.  If you want a sense of how long that took, consider how long it took Jaime to bring the Riverlands to heel after Robb Stark died, and how long it took to get Wyman Manderly to bend the knee.  I don't think Ned and Catelyn arrived at Winterfell until Robb was several months older than you think -- perhaps more than a year old, or even older. 

He doesn't say that at all. He says battles plural and you are interpreting that as multiple. The text does not support this, and a siege is still a battle in a lose sense as it involves two opposing forces facing off and one side acquiescing t the other.  Mace-chicken shit- Tyrell is not Wyman Manderly.  Nor is Jaime's trip round the RL's as long as you think. The best timeline we have has it as him ariving in Darry on the 15/04/300 and leaving with Brienne on 23/05/300. Sooo 38 days. And he's doing a lot more than we know Ned did. And no I don't think padding Neds deeds out with battles we don't know he fought is at all acceptable when working this out. All we know Ned did was lift the siege at SE, fight at the ToJ, visit SF from where he could travel in much shorter time by boat to WF or send Jon on boat and return via KL and attending the royal wedding. It isn't clear which he did but it is implied he and Robert made up because of Lyanna's death and that the wedding happened only after Robert knew his betrothed was dead. So I'd guess he did visit KL. 

Everything you use to support your claims is from your own interpretation and not from the text. You decide Cat has no idea what a year is, and by extension Ned too as he also says about a year. You assume there were more battles than we are told of, you assume the war isn't over until DS. But the books don't support any of those assumptions. And the Wiki even refutes them. 

From the Roberts Rebellion page; Aftermath. 

Quote

While Robert's Rebellion is considered to have ended at the Sack of King's Landing,[44] not all battles were fought. In the south, the Siege of Storm's End continued, while Lyanna Stark was still missing.

 

21 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

Regarding your questions about Aegon, the simple answer is that we don't have enough information yet to know the motives of Illyrio and Varys.  It is not GRRM's style to give us enough information to solve some mysteries -- he often gives insufficient information in one book before providing the needed information later.  For example, in AGOT, Arya witnesses a discussion between two people who appear to be Illyrio and Varys plotting about whatever their plan is.  If their plan is to seat a Blackfyre descendant on the Iron Throne, there is no way you could figure that out from the information available as of AGOT, because there is no mention of the Blackfyres in AGOT.  GRRM probably had not even thought up the Blackfyres at that point, because the appendix to AGOT mentions the Dance of the Dragons but has no mention of the Blackfyre rebellions.  So the simple answer is that we can speculate on the Varys/Illyrio motives and on what the Gold Company is up to, but I don't think there is enough information for us to be confident about that.  

Er, ok so it is perfectly OK for you to be dead certain about a load of gumpf which has no textual support but you're happy to dismiss and ignore the multitude of hints and clues about these two's motives. 

There are tons of snippets across the entire body of text which tell us what might be going on with these guys. But of course they don't support fAegon being who you want him to be. 

Nor do you provide anything to explain why Varys & Illyrio would support him if he was who you think he is.

21 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

Consider a related issue:  Ashara Dayne.  She is obviously important to Jon's story.  The R+L=J theory provides no convincing explanation for what her importance is.  All we know is this.  Ned and Ashara had contact during the Harrenhal tournament, and there are rumors of an affair between the two of them taking place there.   If the SSM is to be believed, Ned and Ashara met up during the rebellion around 9 months before Jon was born.  Ned appears to have picked up Jon in Dorne toward the end of the rebellion, around the time he visited Starfall.  Ashara is rumored to have killed herself around that time, but the body was never found.  Ashara had purple eyes and her hair was dark (brown? black? blond?).  Barristan Selmy loved her and makes some ambiguous comments about her being dishonored and having a stillborn daughter.  She had a brother named Arthur (killed by Ned and Howland), a sister named Allyria, and a nephew named Ned who is now Lord of Starfall.  And there is conflicting information about where she lived and what her relationship to Elia was.  

That is a lot of build up if we are going to learn that she is just a pretty lady who coincidentally crossed Ned Stark's path a few times before killing herself.  Much more likely is that she disappeared after Ned arrived at Starfall with Lyanna and Rhaegar's baby because she took that baby into hiding.  

Lastly, I don't know why Ned never thinks of Ashara in the limited time we have his POV, especially since she is widely believed to be (and may very well be) the mother of his bastard.  Then again, I don't know why he never thinks about his mother or father.  You would think that he would think of them when he was languishing in the Black Cells, but if he did, we don't know about it because GRRM chose not to show it to us.  

She isn't obviously important to Jon's story. It provides a perfectly acceptable explanation she is a red herring. Yes there are rumours but what we know of Ned doesn't align with those rumours. No the SSM does not say they met up during the rebellion. Ned appears to have picked up Jon at some point between leaving KL and Jon arriving back at WF.  Nothing in the text actually tells us when he collected him but R+L=J clues fill in the blanks. But if you are going to ignore those you have to accept that Ned could have very well collected Jon at any point and in any region. Especially if you combine your bastardisation of the timeline with ignoring the clues about Jon's parentage.  

Ashara is rumoured to have killed herself, yes, the body was never found, yes, she had purple eyes and dark brown/black hair, yes, Barristan loved her and makes Unambiguous comments about her being dishonoured and having a still born daughter. There is nothing ambiguous about what he tells us. He is certain in his beliefs. The word dishonoured has long been seen as ambiguous by many but having just spent a lot of time reading historical romance novels some by authors who GRRM is aware of likes etc And some by world famous contemporary authors who he'd have to be living under a rock to be unaware of the word is used to convey pre marital sex with a virgin. Unambigousley across modern and historical writers spanning the 18th century up to the end of the 19th. 

He might be wrong about her daughter dying or the sex of her baby but he certainly believes he is correct.  And he has a better chance than any of our other POV's of knowing who she had sex with. As he was there and watching her closely, and lived at court where he could gather information and hear gossip first hand. 

No again not conflicting, she was Elia's lady in waiting, and she lived on DS whilst Elia was in residence and went with her when and if she visited any other royal households and that tourney. She returned at some point to live at Starfall after her dismissal for being up the duff. 

How is that much more likely? What text can you use to support it? Why would Ned never think about the child of his sister if it isn't Jon? 

It isn't widely believed that she is his bastards mother at all. two people who were not around at the time/place they met heard rumours that made them consider that she might be.

 GRRM chose not to have Ned think about his parents as they are not relivant to the central mystery which he has tantalising knowledge of and the author wishes to convey snippets of to us the readers.  How ether I suspect; and this is just a dumb guess. That if Ashara was important to that mystery he would have had Ned think about her...dun dun dun.... And the fact that he didn't means she's not. 

[Faera]

6 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

One way to reconcile some degree of a relationship between Ned & Ashara with Barristan's high regard would be if Brandon deflowers her, but can't marry her since he's betrothed to Catelyn. Ned figures he can help to make up for Brandon's behavior (which might reflect badly on his family since the Daynes are also an old & noble family) and do right by Ashara by offering himself as a husband to her. His father's approval might be necessary (along with her family's, though other noble women have settled for men-at-arms in such a situation whereas even the "spare" Stark would be a respectable catch), but since Ned hadn't been betrothed yet there at least wasn't a definite obstacle to it. Nothing definite needs to have come of it, but the end result could be that Barristan's opinion of Ned and the perception of his involvement with Ashara wouldn't be in conflict. turtle-paced* has written about how it would serve as a thematic parallel if Ned had been planning on marrying Ashara, just as Catelyn had been planning on marrying Brandon. The parallel works (and, as she noted, it better helps explain some things), with the hindrance being that Ned was too shy to ask her dance himself (compared to the bold Brandon), and I thought of this as a possible way to fit those things together. It would additionally fit Tywin's claim about Robb being his father's son due to marrying Jeyne Westerling after deflowering her, though Tywin could have just been talking about being honorable in general rather than specifically regarding marriage (since Ned married for a wartime alliance whereas Robb broke his betrothal made for one).

*I should note that one of the things I like about her take on Ned is that he's "not [...] Ned Stark the paragon of humanity", but a product of his society. And a product of that society might genuinely consider a noble woman damaged goods if she was known to be deflowered by another man (one she wasn't even betrothed to). So this might require him to be an unrealistically good guy fitting modern sensibilities (even if he was also "doing good while doing well" by marrying a young woman he was genuinely into). I tend to roll my eyes at the argument that there's no way Ned could have EVER fathered a bastard because he's just too honorable, even if it was just once as a young man and unrepresentative of the rest of his life (and I'm not saying this to argue against R+L=J, except that other characters aren't idiots for accepting Ned's story). So perhaps I should also roll my eyes slightly at my own theory here.

All of that is certainly possible though I’m sceptical of the idea myself.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

5 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I like some of your speculation very much, but I'd remind you that Ned tells us that the sack of King's Landing is almost a year from the start of the war, and the start of the war isn't the kidnapping of Lyanna. It's when Lord Arryn raises his banners in rebellion in response to Aerys's demand for Ned and Robert's heads. I've always believed Martin is having his characters. for the most part, speak in estimated time. By which I mean the start of the war may be earlier than September/August of 282. My guess is that Jon Arryn raises his banners in the middle of 282, and the abduction is sometime in the first three months of the year. I won't hazard a guess about Martin using dates from the War of the Roses as corollaries for his fictional events.

Yup, this. 

 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

Some thoughts on Ashara Dayne. 

If you type Ashara into a search of ice and fire her name is only in the books 10 times. Of those 10 mentions every one takes place in just 4 conversations. And all of them relates to her as a potential mother to Jon. Showing that her only reason for being in the books is as a candidate for that role. 

The 4th being Barristans recollection of her. She has a purpose in the story and it is as a red herring for Jon's mum. That is all. The later mention by Barristan is a clue to us that it was Brandon not Ned who had sex with her at Harrenhall. There is another that doesn't include her name where Meera tells us that she only danced with Ned because Brandon asked her to. 

That is probably the end to her in the story Unless, she happens to be alive and one of few women who have a hidden identity. But frankly she doesn't even have to be that she may well just be dead. There is a slim possibility that Alyria Dayne is her daughter, and if we meet her in TWOW and she has a long face I'd call it likely.

 I used to think Ashara was important but over the years have come to realise she really isn't. She is a plot device. She can not be present in the current story as if she were the matter of whether or not she is Jon's mother would be far too quickly and easily resolved. Cat and Cersei can speculate as to if she was his mother only because the woman is dead and died quickly after Jon's birth. Neither Cat nor Cersei have first hand knowledge of her relationship or lack with Ned and are going on hear say and rumour which we are not privy to the details of. 

So in order to use her as a red herring GRRM had to also remove her from the page. Same as Sansa and Arya's direwolves needed to go, and Benjen had to disappear. The story can't progress in the direction the author desires if they are present.

The other candidates are also MIA Wylla is in Dorne and not Highborn therefore does not interact with other characters in order to pass on verification or lack of as to if she is Jon's real mother. We have it from Ned Dayne who was not born via Allyria Dayne who was likely just a baby herself; as she was too young to marry Beric at the opening of the story, meaning she has to be a teenager.  Meaning it is third or fourth hand info and the tale quickly falls apart if one takes the time to consider it. 

And the other is the Fishermans daughter who no one will ever meet or speak to so she serves. No one who is able to account for herself is presented as a possibility. Which is why Ashara Dayne had to be dead or MIA. GRRM left it as a mystery by saying her body was never found. But that could just be good world building on his part, as we see in the fandom people are obsessed with the woman. She's bobba Fett. Barely appears and is unimportant to the overall story but fans go ape shit for her.

Her story has been wrapped up by ADWD, we learn in that book that the mother of her child was not Ned but probably Brandon Stark as Barristan tells us she may have jumped to her death in grief for the baby, her brother and her lover. Meaning her Stark lover was dead by the end of the rebellion.  When the reader pieces this together with what Barbrey Dustin says of Brandon in the same book and Meera saying she only danced with Ned at his request it becomes clear who fathered her baby.  And the rumours Ned Dayne conveys it all makes sense. He's heard a bastardised version of the story, That Ashara fell in love with a Stark, and he or Allyria or someone at some point has exchanged one Stark for another, and it got mashed up with Wylla's cover up for R+L=J.

The pieces fall into place and we can finally lay Ashara to rest. We have a beginning, the speculation by Cat, a middle the confused story from Ned Dayne, and an End Barristan's lament. 

Or meet her in TWOW maybe if she is one of the two secret ID women we've got.  TBH though as much as I used to think she would be I no longer do. I think her body being never found is just a ruse by GRRM to cause that frisson of mystery which has so successfully convinced people she is a meaningful important character. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Or meet her in TWOW maybe if she is one of the two secret ID women we've got.  TBH though as much as I used to think she would be I no longer do. I think her body being never found is just a ruse by GRRM to cause that frisson of mystery which has so successfully convinced people she is a meaningful important character. 

I think Ashara being alive would take away from her tragedy. She goes from being described as having laughing eyes to someone whose solution to her pain and heartbreak is to kill herself. It speaks to how much her life changed after Harrenhal and how she was unable to cope with the loss of those she loved. It's just very sad.

[The Twinslayer]

3 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Maybe you'd like to quote the entire SSM then, because otherwise you are just asking me to accept your personal interpretation. 

I assumed you had read the SSM, since you are relying on it.  I'll come back on your other points later, but the SSM is important to the discussion of Jon's age, so I am quoting it in full below.  Notice a few things.

First, this is a statement GRRM is claimed to have made on July 11, 1999.  It talks about things we will supposedly see in A Storm of Swords, which won't be published until August 2000.  So Martin is in the middle of writing ASOS when he is asked this question and supposedly gives this answer.  

Second, the question is, when was Jon born.  And the reason the questioner gives for asking the question is he thinks "Catelyn seems a little thick when she things that Ned fathered Jon as he returned 'Dawn' to Ashara Dayne."  In other words, the questioner is asking GRRM to confirm that the timeline rules out Ned + Ashara as Jon's parents.  

Third, GRRM's answer is that he has a hard time keeping track of the timeline and that we should not assume that the chapters in the book happen chronologically (he distinguishes between "reader time" and "character time") and says that can be confusing.  That appears to be in response to the questioner's assumption that we can figure out characters' relative ages by where people's namedays happen in different chapters -- GRRM is saying that won't work. 

Fourth, he says Jon is probably 8-9 months older than Dany.

Fifth, he answers the point of the question:  what is going on with Ashara Dayne.  She "was not nailed to the floor in Starfall, as some of the fans who write me seem to assume.  They have horses in Dorne too, you know.  And boats."  So he is implying that Ashara was on the move during the Rebellion and that she may have met up with Ned at the right time to conceive Jon, whatever day he was born.  (Which of course is consistent with the fact that Catelyn was able to roam freely from Riverrun to Storm's End during the War of Five Kings).  My bet is that Ashara was at Harrenhal at some point during the Rebellion when Ned's forces took the castle from the Whents and that Ned and Ashara interacted there (there is a theory that Barristan Selmy knows about this and believes that Ned dishonored her "at Harrenhal," just during the Rebellion rather than Lord Whent's tournament).  

Sixth, he goes on to offer "a tiny tidbit from SOS":  Ashara "was one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing, in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar.  The rest I will save for the books."  This is particularly interesting, because he is writing ASOS and he tells the questioner something that is going to happen that book.  But then he publishes the book and that "tidbit" is nowhere to be found.  And then he publishes the world book, and that tidbit is contradicted, because we are told that Elia lived on Dragonstone at that time.  (We also get Barristan saying Ashara was "not long at court" in ADWD.  We don't know if that is Aerys' court or Rhaegar's, but either way, a few years does not seem like "not long."  More mystery).  

I think there is a very reasonable explanation for all of this.  GRRM was drafting ASOS.  He was filling in information about Robert's Rebellion and he was planning to give some clues about Jon's mother.  As of July 1999, he was planning to give some heavy Ashara Dayne hints, and to tell us about her movements during the Rebellion.  That meant he needed to give us more information about Jon's birth date so he could let us know that Ned and Ashara met up nine months prior.  So he fixed a date -- around the time of the Sack -- and he wrote up the Ned/Ashara meeting.  But then he ran into problems ("I will confess, the chronology of these books sometimes gives me fits") because he had Catelyn saying she married after the battle of the bells and Jaime telling us the battle of the bells was shortly before the Sack.  So he went in a different direction.  Instead of giving us Ned and Ashara at Harrenhal 9 months before the Sack and then Jon being born 9 months later, we get Ned Dayne talking to Arya about Wylla, Ashara, and his un-named Aunt.  

Also, if R+L=J is correct, he may have realized that placing Jon's birth so close in time to the Sack just does not work.  It is kind of ridiculous to think that Jon could have been born two weeks before the Sack, that Lyanna died from complications from childbirth, and that Ned was able to do everything we know that he did before reaching the toj in time to see Lyanna die.  It is much more likely that he took a few months (at least) to reach her after the Sack.  

All of this leads me to conclude that placing Jon's birth around the time of the Sack went out the window with the rest of the Ashara Dayne information.  GRRM may later decide that that is when Jon was born, but for now I don't think we can rely on that SSM to tell us when Jon was born.   

"JULY 11, 1999

CHRONOLOGY

I'm trying to figure out how Jon's day of birth fits in the timeline of the war, and assumed you wouldn't just tell me when he was exactly born.:-)

In his first chapter at the Wall, Jon reflects that his name day passed a fortnight before. I assume this was his 15th one. Dany's 14th name day was at the end of her chapter, on the far side of the Dothraki sea.

Now, if this was after Jon's chapter -- and (apparent) name day, it could be concluded, that Jon was born more than 1 year before Dany, and at least 3 months before Queen Rhaella left King's Landing.

I will spare you the rest of my speculations about the date of Jon's birth, since their only real conclusion is that Catelyn seems a little thick when she thinks that Ned fathered Jon as he returned 'Dawn' to Ashara Dayne.

Ah... I see what you're driving at here, I guess...

I will confess, the chronology of these books sometimes gives me fits. You would not believe how often I reshuffle the chapters, trying to find the one true perfect sequence. And then just when I have it exactly right, my editors weigh in from both sides of the Atlantic, each suggesting a slightly different chapter order.

It is always a balancing act, since I want the chapters to have a certain dramatic flow, I worry about certain storylines being forgotten if they are "off stage" too long, and there is a constant tug of war between character time and reader time (a character may have two chapters, taking place one day apart, but if two hundred pages of stuff about other characters separate those two chapters, the reader is going to perceive a long time as having passed, even if I begin the second chapter with, "When he woke up the very next morning..."

All of which is a long winded way of saying, no, Jon was not born "more than 1 year" before Dany... probably closer to eight or nine months or thereabouts.

I do intend to publish a timeline as an appendix in one or other of the later volumes, but even when I do, I am not certain I'm going to start detailing things down to months and days. With such a huge cast of characters, just keeping track of the =years= drives me half mad sometimes. Not to mention the colors of everybody's eyes.

As to your speculations about Catelyn and Ashara Dayne... sigh... needless to say, All Will Be Revealed in Good Time. I will give you this much, however; Ashara Dayne was not nailed to the floor in Starfall, as some of the fans who write me seem to assume. They have horses in Dorne too, you know. And boats (though not many of their own). As a matter of fact (a tiny tidbit from SOS), she was one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing, in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar.

The rest I will save for the books."

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

52 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

I think Ashara being alive would take away from her tragedy. She goes from being described as having laughing eyes to someone whose solution to her pain and heartbreak is to kill herself. It speaks to how much her life changed after Harrenhal and how she was unable to cope with the loss of those she loved. It's just very sad.

Yes. I am begining to see it that way too. I no longer think we'll meet her again and think there are better answers to who are Lemore and Quathe.

[BooBoo_the_destroyer]

I didn't realize Jon and Robb's age was such a question. I always assumed like the wolf pups Jon was older, Ghost was the only one with open eyes and had wandered away from his "mother".

Also When the BBWB grabs Arya the guy from Winterfell (can't remember his name) says whatever Ned did before he and Cat were married has no bearing on either of thier honor. So atleast one guy  in story seems to think Jon is older.