U.S. Politics: The Flood Shall Wash Away The Cobbs

[Fez]

58 minutes ago, Mexal said:

The question is less why should anyone deal with us while Trump is president but more, why should anyone deal with us full stop? Trump has created precedent that the United States will violate negotiated deals in the next administration. Not worth dealing with us anymore.

Because neither of these deals were treaties, they were unilateral Presidential declarations. Obama had to do it this way, because the Senate never had 67 votes (the treaty requirement) for either deal, but everyone should've been more upfront about the fact that any future President could break them at any time. Countries should still feel free to negotiate agreements with the US, but they should insist that they'll only agree to treaties; which are not so easily broken.

The US does still sign treaties somewhat regularly, just usually on smaller, not that controversial matters. 

[Shryke]

6 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Actually, that's the wrong lesson to learn. Sadly, the lesson the rest of the world took from Bush's era, before being fooled once again by Obama.

The only single lesson is that there's no point making any deal with the USA as a country, period, and not just with some presidents or parties-in-power. Because sooner or later another administration will just shit all over that treaty/deal, just because it feels it can get away with it. I fucking hoped Bush would be the end of anyone considering the US as a nice gentle reliable trustworthy country, that can actually do some good in the world, but most people being short-memory fools, they were lured by Obama's false promise of a new dawn and acted as if moron Bush was an outlier in US politics and presidents. Hopefully, this is over for good now, and no one will ever trust the bloody country as long as the current political regime is in place.

At this point in time, the only sane, logical and realstic option left to the rest of the planet is to make an example out of the USA and go with a total economic war, including an absolute trade blockade of the entire country.

GWB did some bad shit and was kinda awful at dealing with the international community but he was no Trump. Not even close. GWB wasn't wiping his ass his treaties america had negotiated and starting trade wars and shit for no reason. He was, in a very real sense, understandable.

[Martell Spy]

6 minutes ago, Fez said:

Because neither of these deals were treaties, they were unilateral Presidential declarations. Obama had to do it this way, because the Senate never had 67 votes (the treaty requirement) for either deal, but everyone should've been more upfront about the fact that any future President could break them at any time. Countries should still feel free to negotiate agreements with the US, but they should insist that they'll only agree to treaties; which are not so easily broken.

The US does still sign treaties somewhat regularly, just usually on smaller, not that controversial matters. 

It is harder than ever to get those votes though.

[Kalbear]

18 hours ago, DanteGabriel said:

It would be shocking, if white Evangelical Christianity were actually about the teachings of a pacifist redistributionist Jewish radical. But for them, it's about power and control and revenge for cultural grievance.

Again, Evangelical support for Trump makes perfect, rational sense, because Trump's actions and promises have been by far the best for Evangelicals. He is precisely the 'love the sinner, hate the sin' kind of person they're cool with, because they expect EVERYONE to be a sinner - so that's really not a big deal. He is their sinner, and he is doing almost everything he said he would for them. 

I know how much liberals hate hypocrisy, but in this case it makes a whole lot of sense. 

[Fez]

1 minute ago, Martell Spy said:

It is harder than ever to get those votes though.

Absolutely. Just saying, I think that's going to be the cost of doing business going forward. Countries can't trust the US on presidential agreements anymore, but they can still trust treaties.

[Fragile Bird]

10 minutes ago, Fez said:

Because neither of these deals were treaties, they were unilateral Presidential declarations. Obama had to do it this way, because the Senate never had 67 votes (the treaty requirement) for either deal, but everyone should've been more upfront about the fact that any future President could break them at any time. Countries should still feel free to negotiate agreements with the US, but they should insist that they'll only agree to treaties; which are not so easily broken.

The US does still sign treaties somewhat regularly, just usually on smaller, not that controversial matters. 

The way things are going between Democrats and Republicans I don’t foresee any major treaties signed by Americans anytime soon.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Between this, withdrawing from the voluntary Paris Agreement and torpedoing TPP, why should anyone deal with us so long as Trump is president?

Our standing in the world has been falling for some time, and the follies of the Bush II Administration increased that decline, but good god Trump is just gasoline on a dumpster fire.

Realistically, no one should want to deal with the US period - because while Trump might not be around forever, the US has shown a willingness to elect Trump and no real fight to push back against Trump-like figures. Any deals that rational US politicians might make could be swept aside in as little as a year. No one wants to make deals with that sort of thing, at least not reputable governments. Instead, you'll get the kind of deals that countries make with developing nations - exploitative ones with short term gains at best. 

[Maithanet]

I am increasingly concerned about the implications of a United States that is #1 is only one thing: military might.  Because if all you have is a hammer everything starts looking like a nail. 

Trump/Republicans felt that the deal made with Iran was too generous, but the only way you can get a better deal is invasion.  War with Iran is a terrible idea, and it just got dramatically more likely. 

[Werthead]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I am increasingly concerned about the implications of a United States that is #1 is only one thing: military might.  Because if all you have is a hammer everything starts looking like a nail. 

Trump/Republicans felt that the deal made with Iran was too generous, but the only way you can get a better deal is invasion.  War with Iran is a terrible idea, and it just got dramatically more likely. 

If the US wants to give Russia even more power in the Middle East (and the world), putting Iran into a position where it can invite Russia in to act as military advisors etc is a good way to go about it. You can see the battle lines forming with Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Russia on one side and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel and the USA on the other (Turkey might have been in that camp until recently, but it's become a little warier of the situation).

If people think the Middle East has been a bloodbath basketcase before, they haven't seen a tenth of how bad it could get if the USA and Israel decide to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities and end up killing Russian inspectors or advisors there. And countries like Iran can legitimately demand that Israel declare their nuclear arsenals and stockpiles as well.

[Clueless Northman]

20 minutes ago, Shryke said:

GWB did some bad shit and was kinda awful at dealing with the international community but he was no Trump. Not even close. GWB wasn't wiping his ass his treaties america had negotiated and starting trade wars and shit for no reason. He was, in a very real sense, understandable.

Reality check: the USA has been wiping its ass with deals and treaties since its birth. All of them were trashed sooner or later, when it became politically or economically interesting for the US to shit on them. That's not specific to Bush or Trump, or even to the GOP. Basically, what Kalbear just said - except I'm puzzled that people hadn't already realised it 15 years ago, or even earlier, and are only now slowly beginning to learn.

The US as a nation should be fully and totally boycotted and blockaded until it reforms itself deeply. Which means burning down the Constitution and replacing it with a wholly new one, shipping most political leaders and MPs to jail, and paying trillions in war reparations to tens of countries the world over. The USA, not Iran nor Russia, has shown time and time again that it only understands force and can only be brought to the negotiating table when it has been soundly bloodied. For the last 2 decaces, that bloody country has mostly ran economically on a protection racket because it has nukes and the biggest military around. Time to end the charade once and for all. (of course, if someone would actually bloody the nose of its disgusting willing slaves that lead Western countries, that would be a welcome bonus)

[Fez]

The US has the largest, most powerful military in the world, and, for now, the largest economy in the world (at least, when measured by nominal GDP; there are some measures where China is the largest economy). Its not realistic, or in their interest, for any country to ignore us, even if they would like to. 

They just shouldn't really trust us that much either.

[Ormond]

31 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Again, Evangelical support for Trump makes perfect, rational sense, because Trump's actions and promises have been by far the best for Evangelicals. He is precisely the 'love the sinner, hate the sin' kind of person they're cool with, because they expect EVERYONE to be a sinner - so that's really not a big deal. He is their sinner, and he is doing almost everything he said he would for them. 

I know how much liberals hate hypocrisy, but in this case it makes a whole lot of sense. 

It isn't just Evangelicals who expect EVERYONE to be a sinner. This is the position of all Christian theologians I am aware of, of any theological orientation. The hypocrisy comes in supporting someone who has stated in public that he has never asked for forgiveness and even when he was trying to take that back in an interview with Cal Thomas said "hopefully I won't have to asking for much forgiveness", which still shows a lack of repentance and humility. 

[Shryke]

25 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I am increasingly concerned about the implications of a United States that is #1 is only one thing: military might.  Because if all you have is a hammer everything starts looking like a nail. 

Trump/Republicans felt that the deal made with Iran was too generous, but the only way you can get a better deal is invasion.  War with Iran is a terrible idea, and it just got dramatically more likely. 

There was a great interview this week on Pod Save the World with a guy who used to work in the State Department, among other things. (he's done a bunch of big time reporting too as I remember) 

They were talking about his newest book which includes a ton of interviews with former Secretaries of State and other figures and the basic thrust of the entire thing is that the State Department, largely since 9/11 I think was the timeline, has been sidelined a lot of the time within the executive branch and this has left the government more and more listening to and only viewing the world through the lens of military solutions. And that this is a big problem.

And you can see that manifest itself here. Because the Iran Deal is a diplomatic solution, which all the annoyance that always comes with: it's imperfect and full of compromises. As Calvin said "A good compromise leaves everybody mad". But the problem is the military tract doesn't actually offer any solutions. But it's increasingly becoming the only one the executive wants or gets to hear.

[Shryke]

17 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Reality check: the USA has been wiping its ass with deals and treaties since its birth. All of them were trashed sooner or later, when it became politically or economically interesting for the US to shit on them. That's not specific to Bush or Trump, or even to the GOP. Basically, what Kalbear just said - except I'm puzzled that people hadn't already realised it 15 years ago, or even earlier, and are only now slowly beginning to learn.

The US as a nation should be fully and totally boycotted and blockaded until it reforms itself deeply. Which means burning down the Constitution and replacing it with a wholly new one, shipping most political leaders and MPs to jail, and paying trillions in war reparations to tens of countries the world over. The USA, not Iran nor Russia, has shown time and time again that it only understands force and can only be brought to the negotiating table when it has been soundly bloodied. For the last 2 decaces, that bloody country has mostly ran economically on a protection racket because it has nukes and the biggest military around. Time to end the charade once and for all. (of course, if someone would actually bloody the nose of its disgusting willing slaves that lead Western countries, that would be a welcome bonus)

Nah. This isn't a reality check it's just cynical bullshit disguising itself as a well-thought-out position.

You can literally see the difference right now. Trump vs GWB is a difference in american standing in the world that is not that hard to notice.

[Shryke]

2 minutes ago, Ormond said:

It isn't just Evangelicals who expect EVERYONE to be a sinner. This is the position of all Christian theologians I am aware of, of any theological orientation. The hypocrisy comes in supporting someone who has stated in public that he has never asked for forgiveness and even when he was trying to take that back in an interview with Cal Thomas said "hopefully I won't have to asking for much forgiveness", which still shows a lack of repentance and humility. 

Yeah, the hypocrisy is that evangelicals actually don't give a shit about the actions of the people they elect. They are nakedly political actors looking for judicial appointments and would vote for satan himself to get them.

[Kalbear]

3 minutes ago, Ormond said:

It isn't just Evangelicals who expect EVERYONE to be a sinner. This is the position of all Christian theologians I am aware of, of any theological orientation. The hypocrisy comes in supporting someone who has stated in public that he has never asked for forgiveness and even when he was trying to take that back in an interview with Cal Thomas said "hopefully I won't have to asking for much forgiveness", which still shows a lack of repentance and humility. 

Sure, that's fair. Again, though, their view of Trump the personal odious person is not that big a deal compared to Trump the successful promiser of things they want. And white Evangelicals have gotten so many things they want - Jerusalem recognized as the capital, EPA regulations removed, tax breaks, abortion rights fought, more pressure in the middle east, removal of LGBT rights and privileges, while they've not gotten something they didn't hugely want (immigration issues; they're in general in favor of refugee resettlement). 

On Iran: this is an interesting counterpoint to the idea that withdrawal is bad, though the main reason is that the Europeans will continue to play good cop and make Iran want to stay in the deal, while the US gets to do more sanctions. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

The problem with the good cop routine of EU is, it simply lacks power to enforce.

The US have threatened European companies, if you violate our US sanctions, your are in trouble in the US. And the US market is too big to risk for Iran. So while the EU itself might encourage companies to go there, the companies are too scared of what the US could do to them.

[Mexal]

Obama's statement which is true.

 

 

[Bonnot OG]

1 hour ago, Shryke said:

GWB did some bad shit and was kinda awful at dealing with the international community but he was no Trump. Not even close. GWB wasn't wiping his ass his treaties america had negotiated and starting trade wars and shit for no reason. He was, in a very real sense, understandable.

Yea, Bush just started wars where bombs were dropped, bullets shot, and hundreds of thousands, possibly millions, of dead dark skinned people lay dead, some of them in pieces and others charred. Lets not kid ourselves, Bush's horrible handling of everything is still being felt today, especially in the middle east. 

That said, Trump is utterly terrible and destroying any credibility the country may have gained back from Bush's fuck ups with Obama being elected. 

[Mexal]

Oh man, this is something else. Ignore the "this may have reimbursed him for the 130k" and focus on the details in this drop box. Trump's lawyer's company (Cohen's Essential Consultants), set up right before the election to pay off Stormy Daniels, received money from AT&T, Novartis, Russian Oligarch's company before a few major potential events. These were made to a "real estate consultancy". There is so much more as well. The details are found in this document.

ETA: Just a FYI, Vekselberg, who Avenatti is claiming paid money into the account of Essential Consultants, was stopped at the airport by Mueller. He also attended Trump's Inauguration and I believe might be one of the Russian Oligarchs who is sanctioned. This all happened while Trump was president.