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How would Ser Davos react to Stannis giving Shireen to the flames?

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8 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I'm sorry but do you honestly expect someone to engage further in a conversation with you after you proclaim whatever questions he or she asks (besides the two you've deemed worthy), will not illicit a serious response from you? 

Your style reminds me of Tucker Carlson. That is why I wrote what I wrote.

It would be futile for me to try to explain why I think what I think.  It is my opinion that Stannis will not sacrifice his daughter.

First off the thread started on a "what if" ---- how would Davos react if Stannis gives Shireen to the flames.

There has only been one threat made against Shireen and that was made by a wildling/free folk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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That seems to me a misinterpretation of things. Stannis never believed in R'hllor back in ACoK or ASoS, just as he never believed in the Seven or the old gods (at least since he had to watch his parents die). He makes that abundantly clear in ACoK when he gives his red falcon speech.

I agree to this. He lost any religious fervor when he saw his parents die. No question, but that also leads in to his future as well.

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He knows Melisandre has real power and he intends to use her and her power to get what he wants.

He doesn't, though. He questions her along the way more often than not. Melisandre came to him on her own mission (which probably wasn't for Stannis himself, but to get to Jon, only Mel doesn't know the real who or why yet). Mel has tried hard to convince Stannis that he is AA reborn. She even gave him a flaming sword! But does that sword work without Mel and her majocs close by? We have not seen it work, not up to and including the TWOW chapter. What we see instead is Stannis referring to Davos as the reason why he is there (to save the realm first blah, blah, blah). And later we see Stannis using his "old" wartime strategic planning and cunning. Not pulling out his fiery blade or spouting anything about him being a reborn red god figure.

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What he wants is the Iron Throne.

Agreed. Never disputed this.

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He has no interest to save the world or anything,

Maybe, maybe not. He kinda has to have a world to rule over. I think he at least sees this when he points north and calls whatever the real enemy.

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but if Melisandre can help him get what he wants he'll also give her what she wants - and that means he'll force Westeros to bow down to R'hllor the Red rather than to the other non-existing gods Stannis doesn't care about.

Here I disagree. This reads to me like you are saying Stannis is a devout follower of Melisandre and will follow her like she is a red fire queen, and in doing so make everyone else bow or burn along the way.

He does not do this with Davos or Justin Massey, and both are his hand and advisor, respectively.

We know Melisandre looks out for herself first in her flames. The odds are is she will use Shireen for her own needs rather than Stannis knowing or doing so. GRRM has given us a heads up there is quite a bit going on at Castle Black. With Shireen, Selyse, and Melisandre all being in the same place as the huge kerfuffle, and the personal threats they may be facing, it seems Shireen's destiny is with Mel and Selyse, not Stannis.

  • Melisandre paid the naked steel no mind. If the wildling had meant her harm, she would have seen it in her flames. Danger to her own person was the first thing she had learned to see, back when she was still half a child, a slave girl bound for life to the great red temple. It was still the first thing she looked for whenever she gazed into a fire.
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He never hangs out at the night fires or chants and sings about R'hllor.

But again, he questions Mel along the way, gives the credit due to Davos, and never chants or even asks for Melisandre. He is winding his way through this mire on his own wits and he seems to be realizing this more and more.

I re-read the Theon TWOW chapter last night and it seems the case in Stannis' future as well.

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But when Stannis himself sees a vision in the flames - a vision about the Battle at the Fist of the First Men - he starts to believe that Melisandre might be right that he is a savior.

Stannis may be picking up on an elemental power, but that is not from Melisandre.

When we look at Mance and his comments about wearing the ruby cuff, he hates it. It gives him odd thoughts and feelings... but still, he removes it when he is away from Melisandre and then he is back to his own (devious) self again.

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It is Davos who, in the end, tells him about the situation at the Wall (but not because Mel withholds that information from Stannis but because Pylos didn't trouble Melisandre or Stannis with the letters from Castle Black) but Stannis is only receptive to Davos' arguments because he has started to believe/seriously consider the things Melisandre believes about him.

After all, it is Melisandre who makes it clear to Davos and the reader that she didn't come to Westeros to seat some dude on the Iron Throne. She has a broader agenda, wants to save humanity from darkness, etc. She might not really understand the nature of the danger but she does know that there is a danger everybody is facing, even if she can only understand and phrase that danger in silly religious terms (like 'the Great Other' is trying to corrupt/destroy us all, etc.).

Melisandre has her own agenda, and she hasn't figured it out yet. She has made herself appear useful in order to get her (plot) moved foreward. Stannis was just a ship ride, a step stone, in what "R'hllor" has planned for Melisandre.

Coincidentally, I had already stared doing some re-reads on this Shireen burning idea and puzzling out the clues elsewhere, and I have to say, Selyse is a big part of this event. I think we assume Stannis because he seems to "obvious", or because of the abomination, but it does not appear to be happening that way.

Also, even after Stannis left CB, Jon sends Maester Aemon away because Jon worries that Aemon, and Aemon Steelsong, are not safe around Melisandre and her flames because of his blood.

ADDING: Also because Mel looks out for herself first, and because of the issues with the mutiny at CB, Mel will be, in her opinion, forced to move the fiery hand of R'hllor, even without Stannis' knowledge:

A Dance with Dragons - Jon VIII

Dragons again. For a moment Jon could almost see them too, coiling in the night, their dark wings outlined against a sea of flame. "If she knew, she would have taken the boy away from us. Dalla's boy, not your monster. A word in the king's ear would have been the end of it." And of me. Stannis would have taken it for treason. "Why let it happen if she knew?"
"Because it suited her. Fire is a fickle thing. No one knows which way a flame will go."
 
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Now, in ADwD Stannis doesn't hang out with Melisandre all that much, but he doesn't change his overall stance. He was never a fan of human sacrifices but he chooses to go through with them to punish some cannibals.

That he doesn't push the Northmen yet to accept R'hllor as their new and only god doesn't mean he won't do that after the Boltons are dealt with and he is reunited with Melisandre.

That is where there is not text to show Stannis called for the punishment of the men who ate the dead men. Every line from the book says it was the queen's men that called for this, and Stannis wasn't there for the setup, he never sang along or called for R'hllor, and he never even said "may the force be with you" at the end. He just walked away "wordless" and went to focus on something else.

The second part is speculation. Stannis could very well die in the battle at Winterfell, or immediately after. There is no promise for a Stannis and Melisandre reunion. He can try to push Red Rahloo on the northern men, but they won't go for it, and Stannis will be stuck in the middle of a nasty winter in the middle of the north, surrounded by a bunch of old god'ders... which doesn't really sound very strategic Stannis-like to me. Bow or burn will not work in his favor.

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I mean, it is morons who push Stannis for sacrifices in the snow.

You can say that again!

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There is no real reason for that and no reason to believe Melisandre herself would push him for stuff like that at this point. And then - when Mel demands a sacrifice she usually can deliver.

Exactly... unless Davos is there :leaving:

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When she burned Alester Florent they got the wind they needed to get to the Wall in time. For all we know she could end a snow storm in the middle of winter with some blood sacrifice. Magic is a real thing in this word. Gods not necessarily. 

There is a the constant online debate about what constitutes as a "god" in this series. Chances are there is a nature/elemental force that one choses to use this way or that. Choice is a rather consistent theme in all of GRRM's work, and this includes the Theon TWOW chapter as well. Or, people can be like Mel and take credit for wind when it was just a natural occurrence :) Melisandre takes credit and gives blame as needed to make herself seem legit. She is going to be exposed real soon. I think even she gave hint to this:

  • That was a lesson Melisandre had learned long before Asshai; the more effortless the sorcery appears, the more men fear the sorcerer.
  • And these rumors are already spreading:

    A Storm of Swords - Samwell IV

    "The red one?" said Sam uncertainly.
    "Melisandre of Asshai," said Grenn. "The king's sorceress. They say she burned a man alive at Dragonstone so Stannis would have favorable winds for his voyage north. She rode beside him in the battle too, and gave him his magic sword. Lightbringer, they call it. Wait till you see it. It glows like it had a piece of sun inside it." He looked at Sam again and grinned a big helpless stupid grin. "I still can't believe you're here."
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We'll have to wait and see about that one, don't we?

Sure thing. I will be at the pub and you can buy me a stout when the book comes out.

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If Bran happened to reach out to Stannis at the island in the lake - or if animals, etc. did come to Stannis' help in the coming battle - then this might cause Stannis to reconsider his stance on the old gods, etc. considering that he also knows now that the true enemy are the Others from the old legends. Creatures that were fought and (presumably) defeated by the First Men of old. He isn't the kind of guy stupid enough to not see that they might be able to learn something from those people.

YES! I agree with this, and it seems to be going this way. Not much I can say without adding a huge TWOW spoiler tag, but I think Stannis will stay religiously neutral, but he will question Melisandre, if not R'hllor itself, and the extremist pendulum will continue back to middle (if he survives).

ADDING because I forgot to mention it earlier; I do agree that Shireen will not burn at the start or first part of TWOW. It seems that a more natural plot progression will allow it to happen later, which is one of the reasons why I speculate that Mel and Selyse will take Shireen and flee to Nightfort. It may happen there if not right in front of the gate through the wall to the northern side.

Edited by The Fattest Leech
added the part I forgot to mention earlier

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8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

I agree to this. He lost any religious fervor when he saw his parents die. No question, but that also leads in to his future as well.

Well, no idea whether he ever was all that religious - I doubt it. But after that he clearly was done with the gods.

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He doesn't, though. He questions her along the way more often than not.

He follows her script exactly throughout ACoK. He bases his entire war strategy on her predictions and her advice. She is the one who has him abandon conventional diplomacy/warfare (which is the smart thing to do considering that Stannis simply had no chance to defeat any of his enemies or make meaningful alliances with any of the other people simply by playing his 'I'm the rightful king but cannot prove it' routine) in favor of using magic 

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Melisandre came to him on her own mission (which probably wasn't for Stannis himself, but to get to Jon, only Mel doesn't know the real who or why yet). Mel has tried hard to convince Stannis that he is AA reborn. She even gave him a flaming sword! But does that sword work without Mel and her majocs close by? We have not seen it work, not up to and including the TWOW chapter.

Stannis' sword is just a glamor, and he knows that. It is a fake, and there is no reason to use the sword if it isn't really different from a normal sword. Not to mention that Stannis doesn't fight personally, anyway.

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What we see instead is Stannis referring to Davos as the reason why he is there (to save the realm first blah, blah, blah). And later we see Stannis using his "old" wartime strategic planning and cunning. Not pulling out his fiery blade or spouting anything about him being a reborn red god figure.

Stannis fights men in ADwD he can fight and defeat with the resources he has (or at least he thinks he can). He has no need for Melisandre in that fight. But that doesn't mean he wouldn't use her if he saw a need for her.

The point of the R'hllor stuff from his POV back in ACoK was to bind his pitiful few followers together and give them a new purpose in this religious fantasy. It was (and still is) part of Stannis ruling strategy.

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Here I disagree. This reads to me like you are saying Stannis is a devout follower of Melisandre and will follow her like she is a red fire queen, and in doing so make everyone else bow or burn along the way.

No, it means that Stannis gives Melisandre what she wants in exchange for her giving him the Iron Throne.

They made a pact. Stannis gets his throne and crown and Mel will convert Stannis' subjects to her religion. Else Stannis wouldn't have started using odd references to R'hllor in his official letters, nor would he have despoiled septs, burned godswoods (the one in his own home and birthplace), or persecuted followers of other religions. He did all that because Mel demanded that of him. Her services do not come free.

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He does not do this with Davos or Justin Massey, and both are his hand and advisor, respectively.

Massey is a queen's man. He isn't very pious but you cannot enforce piety (at least not on the inside). And Davos is really a special case.

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We know Melisandre looks out for herself first in her flames.

She looks not for herself. She is but an instrument of the lord. She first looks for dangers to herself. That's a difference.

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The odds are is she will use Shireen for her own needs rather than Stannis knowing or doing so. GRRM has given us a heads up there is quite a bit going on at Castle Black. With Shireen, Selyse, and Melisandre all being in the same place as the huge kerfuffle, and the personal threats they may be facing, it seems Shireen's destiny is with Mel and Selyse, not Stannis.

Not very likely. Selyse won't want to kill her daughter now that she is (allegedly) queen. And Mel has the power to deal with all her enemies at the Wall without any blood sacrifice. She is a powerful sorceress and she has those poisonous powders, etc. She should be pretty fine dealing with everybody around her.

And there is no reason whatsoever to assume Shireen is going to die soon. In fact, there is a strong hint that Patches is doing to do or cause something bad first. After all, there must be a reason why Mel fears him. It is not a good thing that Stannis' jester is somebody Mel actually fears.

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But again, he questions Mel along the way, gives the credit due to Davos, and never chants or even asks for Melisandre. He is winding his way through this mire on his own wits and he seems to be realizing this more and more.

Stannis uses people like tools. Mel is a tool (and his lover) but still a tool. When she works fine, she has his favor, when not, then not. But there is no indication that he has discarded her. In fact, he doesn't really like it that she chose not to accompany him.

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I re-read the Theon TWOW chapter last night and it seems the case in Stannis' future as well.

That is the first glimpse we get on Stannis actual private personality. That shows us why pretty much nobody likes him because he simply isn't nice to anyone, including his closest followers.

It doesn't show as a change because the Stannis from ACoK and ASoS was only depicted through Cressen's, Davos', and Cat's eyes. And they only showed him from afar, during audiences, etc.

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Stannis may be picking up on an elemental power, but that is not from Melisandre.

He saw pictures in a fire as per Melisandre's instruction. We don't know how this works but Stannis isn't crediting the elements for this, he credits Melisandre and her god.

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When we look at Mance and his comments about wearing the ruby cuff, he hates it. It gives him odd thoughts and feelings... but still, he removes it when he is away from Melisandre and then he is back to his own (devious) self again.

The glamor is made by Mel but it has little to do with her. Mel likely doesn't enjoy her own glamor, either, nor is it likely that Bloodraven liked to be Maynard Plumm, etc.

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Melisandre has her own agenda, and she hasn't figured it out yet. She has made herself appear useful in order to get her (plot) moved foreward. Stannis was just a ship ride, a step stone, in what "R'hllor" has planned for Melisandre.

She has found Azor Ahai and she serves him and shapes him to fulfill his destiny as she sees it since she first appeared. Stannis is her hero and she found him.

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Coincidentally, I had already stared doing some re-reads on this Shireen burning idea and puzzling out the clues elsewhere, and I have to say, Selyse is a big part of this event. I think we assume Stannis because he seems to "obvious", or because of the abomination, but it does not appear to be happening that way.

Selyse might participate in the sacrifice if she is still alive by that point, but this is not something she will come up with.

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Also, even after Stannis left CB, Jon sends Maester Aemon away because Jon worries that Aemon, and Aemon Steelsong, are not safe around Melisandre and her flames because of his blood.

And ADwD showed that he was a moron there because nobody ever intended to sacrifice Aemon or Mance's child.

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ADDING: Also because Mel looks out for herself first, and because of the issues with the mutiny at CB, Mel will be, in her opinion, forced to move the fiery hand of R'hllor, even without Stannis' knowledge:

A Dance with Dragons - Jon VIII

Dragons again. For a moment Jon could almost see them too, coiling in the night, their dark wings outlined against a sea of flame. "If she knew, she would have taken the boy away from us. Dalla's boy, not your monster. A word in the king's ear would have been the end of it." And of me. Stannis would have taken it for treason. "Why let it happen if she knew?"
"Because it suited her. Fire is a fickle thing. No one knows which way a flame will go."
 

She won't murder his daughter, heir, and successor without his knowledge or consent. That doesn't make any sense. She would first burn pretty much everybody else at Castle Black before she turned to Stannis' daughter.

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That is where there is not text to show Stannis called for the punishment of the men who ate the dead men. Every line from the book says it was the queen's men that called for this, and Stannis wasn't there for the setup, he never sang along or called for R'hllor, and he never even said "may the force be with you" at the end. He just walked away "wordless" and went to focus on something else.

Sure, but he authorized the whole thing. He is to be blamed for it, and nobody else.

I'm sure Stannis needs a good reason to burn somebody alive and doesn't really like doing that all that much. But he authorizes it when it suits him. 

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The second part is speculation. Stannis could very well die in the battle at Winterfell, or immediately after. There is no promise for a Stannis and Melisandre reunion. He can try to push Red Rahloo on the northern men, but they won't go for it, and Stannis will be stuck in the middle of a nasty winter in the middle of the north, surrounded by a bunch of old god'ders... which doesn't really sound very strategic Stannis-like to me. Bow or burn will not work in his favor.

Nobody said he would force them when he doesn't have the upper hand. But if he defeats the Boltons he will be the King in the North. He will be the King of the Northmen. And they will do what he says. I don't think he would be stupid enough to cause a religious war now in the middle of winter - but perhaps after he has defeated the Others with the help of Melisandre.

I don't think that will happen - I'm just saying if Stannis did that he would still continue his original agenda rebuilding Westeros in his and Melisandre's image.

And how dismissive or receptive the Northmen and wildlings will be of Melisandre and her god is still an open question. She is there for a reason and she is always warm and hot while the normal people will starve, freeze, and die in winter.

That is going to cause them to think about things - just as the Brotherhood without Banners thought about Thoros' god and concluded that he was much realer and more powerful than both the old and the new gods.

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There is a the constant online debate about what constitutes as a "god" in this series. Chances are there is a nature/elemental force that one choses to use this way or that. Choice is a rather consistent theme in all of GRRM's work, and this includes the Theon TWOW chapter as well. Or, people can be like Mel and take credit for wind when it was just a natural occurrence :) Melisandre takes credit and gives blame as needed to make herself seem legit. She is going to be exposed real soon.

Melisandre isn't fraud. She cannot be exposed in that sense. She is a real sorceress. And her magics do work. Not everything she does is magic, though. 

Birthing shadow assassins (which Mel might do again) is no natural occurrence. And neither is seeing vision in flames.

People might realize that she is wrong about Stannis, has been wrong about the interpretations of visions she had. But that doesn't make her a fraud. And she has again and again admitted that she can make such mistakes. It is not that difficult to understand.

I mean, Jon that moron could have prevented being gutted if he had just listened to her. She told him people he trusted were out to kill him and she told him he was surrounded by skulls. It is not that hard to misinterpret that kind of thing. Mel told Jon about a girl on a horse. It could have been Arya. But there was no guarantee that she was considering Melisandre of Asshai has never seen Arya Stark so she could not possibly recognize her.

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YES! I agree with this, and it seems to be going this way. Not much I can say without adding a huge TWOW spoiler tag, but I think Stannis will stay religiously neutral, but he will question Melisandre, if not R'hllor itself, and the extremist pendulum will continue back to middle (if he survives).

I don't think there is a good reason to assume that Bran/Bloodraven have issues with the R'hllor thing. Mel only has issues with them because she doesn't realize what they represent. That isn't her fault.

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ADDING because I forgot to mention it earlier; I do agree that Shireen will not burn at the start or first part of TWOW. It seems that a more natural plot progression will allow it to happen later, which is one of the reasons why I speculate that Mel and Selyse will take Shireen and flee to Nightfort. It may happen there if not right in front of the gate through the wall to the northern side.

The way George set things up in ASoS implies that Stannis will eventually take possession of the Nightfort.

Selyse has no intention of going there. If she and Shireen were to flee they would go to Braavos (and might do just that, to come back with the sellswords later on) not to the Nightfort.

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20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And ADwD showed that he was a moron there because nobody ever intended to sacrifice Aemon or Mance's child.

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He couldn't really know that-from his pov however it's reasonble to take it as a distinct possibility and thus took some precautions to avoid it should Stannis have any intention or develops any plan to sacrifice Aemon or mance's child. Though, his plan to save Mance's child was always little..odd to me. Like, if Stannis does decide to sacrifice Mance's son, wouldn't Gilly's boy be the one burned? Like literally Jon would not be able to convince Stannis that he isn't just saying this to save the babe's life-and if they do believe him, he may find himself a sacrifice on his own-which would be a disaster in terms of his plans for the wall for without him his open boarders policy likely will be quashed by his successor.

 

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I mean, Jon that moron could have prevented being gutted if he had just listened to her. She told him people he trusted were out to kill him and she told him he was surrounded by skulls.

Truth be told, I won't fault him for having hesistancy to the strange witch; but her warning is just really stating the obvious. Jon was launching wildly unpopular policies, and endeavor to which would make it so that even most of the brothers at Castle black who don't want him dead will not she's a tear should he die. 

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But there was no guarantee that she was considering Melisandre of Asshai has never seen Arya Stark so she could not possibly recognize her.

The clear implication of her statement was it was Arya; however yes her statement was  phrased in such a way that gave her wiggle room should she prove wrong.

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22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The way George set things up in ASoS implies that Stannis will eventually take possession of the Nightfort.

Selyse has no intention of going there. If she and Shireen were to flee they would go to Braavos (and might do just that, to come back with the sellswords later on) not to the Nightfort.

I agree that Stannis has already claimed the Nightfort as his seat and if/when he returns to the Wall that is where he intends to sit.

A Storm of Swords - Samwell V        He considered Sam again. "I am told that you and this wildling girl passed beneath the Wall, through some magic gate."   "The B-black Gate," Sam stammered. "Below the Nightfort."     "The Nightfort is the largest and oldest of the castles on the Wall," the king said. "That is where I intend to make my seat, whilst I fight this war. You will show me this gate."/

Selyse does intend on going there as described in the below quote. She left Eastwatch where Stannis left her.  She traveled to CB with the banker in tow and intends to travel on to the Nightfort.

A Dance with Dragons - Jon IX      "We will not be with you long. A few days at the most. It is our intent to press on to our new seat at the Nightfort as soon as we are rested. The journey from Eastwatch was wearisome."     "As you say, Your Grace," said Jon. "You will be cold and hungry, I am sure. A hot meal awaits you in our common room."/

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Just now, Clegane'sPup said:

Selyse does intend on going there as described in the below quote. She left Eastwatch where Stannis left her.  She traveled to CB with the banker in tow and intends to travel on to the Nightfort.

That's what she told Jon. But her actions betray the fact that she doesn't want to go there while Stannis isn't yet back. Then she might go there with him, of course, but if things go awry at the Wall she would more likely jump on the chance to accompany Nestoris and Massey with Shireen, the new queen if Stannis is dead, to take charge both of the loans the Iron Bank has extended to them as well as the sellswords they will hire with the money.

Entrusting Massey alone with that duty would be insanely stupid considering that guy might just run away with the money if he believes Stannis is dead.

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3 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

but if things go awry at the Wall she would more likely jump on the chance to accompany Nestoris and Massey with Shireen, the new queen if Stannis is dead, to take charge both of the loans the Iron Bank has extended to them as well as the sellswords they will hire with the money.

but LV, things have gone awry at the Wall, the LC has been tenderized. You and I are aware of the ancient Theon spoiler.

Spoiler

that Stannis is still alive after LC Snow receives the pink/bastard letter arrives.

My understanding of what you wrote implies to me that if Selyse leaves CB with the banker & Massey to travel to Braavos ---- Shireen does not burn.

That is basically what individuals have been typing. Stannis does not/will not burn his daughter.

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I say Shireen does not burn soon. If she burns - which I think will happen eventually - it will be Stannis doing after they returned from Braavos (and Stannis from Winterfell) in the fight against the Others.

Stannis is only going to sacrifice his only child and heir when the stakes are pretty high.

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On May 23, 2018 at 3:08 PM, Lord Varys said:

Stannis' sword is just a glamor, and he knows that. It is a fake, and there is no reason to use the sword if it isn't really different from a normal sword. Not to mention that Stannis doesn't fight personally, anyway.

Does he? He mentioned he didn't want to sully it with Renly's blood during their confrontation. Why show such care to a prop?

On May 23, 2018 at 3:08 PM, Lord Varys said:

I don't think there is a good reason to assume that Bran/Bloodraven have issues with the R'hllor thing. Mel only has issues with them because she doesn't realize what they represent. That isn't her fault.

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Melisandre would have all the were trees burnt.

On May 23, 2018 at 3:08 PM, Lord Varys said:

I'm sure Stannis needs a good reason to burn somebody alive and doesn't really like doin

Besides Stannis testing if the red God will accept the tribute and grant his blessing I can think of another reason for why the burning in particular-to install pure terror in his troops of him. He knows he will been loved(for he generally been a chore to interact with given how mean and arrogant the man can be), and will never be loved(besides of course loved by Davos). Conventional means of exections(I.e hanging,beheading), will not illicit the type of horror needed for him to feared by his men especially when at the moment they're going against enemy to which has nearly every apparent advantage. 

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