Did Edmure save Robb's Life?

[Blackfish Tully]

One question i have is if it's so easy to trap Robb and the Blackfish and the castles and the mountains would work against them then why do they need to wait for Tywin to drive Robb out ? Daven  has the remains of the Oxcross soldiers and there are 4000 soldiers at the Golden Tooth plus there has to be a few more thousand soldiers in the Westerlands in the other castles and towns . Robb has split  his men into  at least 4 different groups, Glover and Karstark raiding the coast and Greatjon taking gold mines . Why didn't the Westerland Lords rise up and use their superior knowledge of the area plus their castles and attack the Northmen ? Robb only had 6K men and they have no knowledge of the area , it should not be so hard .  

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[Boarsbane]

2 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

One question i have is if it's so easy to trap Robb and the Blackfish and the castles and the mountains would work against them then why do they need to wait for Tywin to drive Robb out ? Daven  has the remains of the Oxcross soldiers and there are 4000 soldiers at the Golden Tooth plus there has to be a few more thousand soldiers in the Westerlands in the other castles and towns . Robb has split  his men into  at least 4 different groups, Glover and Karstark raiding the coast and Greatjon taking gold mines . Why didn't the Westerland Lords rise up and use their superior knowledge of the area plus their castles and attack the Northmen ? Robb only had 6K men and they have no knowledge of the area , it should not be so hard .  

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It would be idiotic to leave the castles undefended unless it's a last resort, most of Daven's survivors aren't even trained yet probably so that basically leaves the 4k under Prester that could be relied on and used and they would be outnumbered. Tywin has the best men and the most cavalry with him and his subordinates have let him down and got thousands of his men killed, he's not going to leave it to Daven to deal with Robb, he knows if he wants him dealt with he will have to personally do it, until the tides shift at Blackwater anyways.

[Blackfish Tully]

16 hours ago, Boarsbane said:

It would be idiotic to leave the castles undefended unless it's a last resort, most of Daven's survivors aren't even trained yet probably so that basically leaves the 4k under Prester that could be relied on and used and they would be outnumbered. Tywin has the best men and the most cavalry with him and his subordinates have let him down and got thousands of his men killed, he's not going to leave it to Daven to deal with Robb, he knows if he wants him dealt with he will have to personally do it, until the tides shift at Blackwater anyways.

But you would think that the Western Lords would have some kind of response to the fact that Robb had split up his army . There were only 6K to begin with so with Karstark and Glover raiding along the coast , Greatjon taking gold mines and Mormont taking cattle how many men could each of them have ? let say each one of them has 500 men each while Robb has 4K , couldn't Daven at least take a couple of thousand and try to get revenge on Karstark for killing his father ? It should not be to hard to corner Karstark since he has no knowledge of the Westerlands and the castles and mountains would work against him and Daven would have the locals to let him know where Karstark is. Once they destroy Robb's smaller groups then they could go after Robb , you would think the West could raise at least another 4 or 5 thousand men plus the 4 thousand at the Golden Tooth and with the home advantage they should have little problem with Robb and the Blackfish who have no knowledge of the Westerlands and would surely just fall into a trap or get trapped by the castles and mountains . 

[Boarsbane]

56 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

But you would think that the Western Lords would have some kind of response to the fact that Robb had split up his army . There were only 6K to begin with so with Karstark and Glover raiding along the coast , Greatjon taking gold mines and Mormont taking cattle how many men could each of them have ? let say each one of them has 500 men each while Robb has 4K , couldn't Daven at least take a couple of thousand and try to get revenge on Karstark for killing his father ? It should not be to hard to corner Karstark since he has no knowledge of the Westerlands and the castles and mountains would work against him and Daven would have the locals to let him know where Karstark is. Once they destroy Robb's smaller groups then they could go after Robb , you would think the West could raise at least another 4 or 5 thousand men plus the 4 thousand at the Golden Tooth and with the home advantage they should have little problem with Robb and the Blackfish who have no knowledge of the Westerlands and would surely just fall into a trap or get trapped by the castles and mountains . 

Daven's men are mostly piss poor quality and I'm sure everyone is leary of a trap. Maybe Daven could corner and kill one of Robb's smaller groups, but I highly doubt it and it wouldn't be worth the risk of possibly getting trapped outside of safe city walls and unlike Stafford, Daven is no fool. How many miles a day do you think they'll march, and are you really going to trust them to set and ambush? There are probably enough men spilt between all the castles garrisons to handle Robb and Blackfish but they are off limits, Daven's men aren't trained so again they aren't really worth even considering and so we are left with the 4k men at the Golden Tooth. Daven's men and the garrisons would be last resorts, Tywin's army is still very much intact and coming back West. It makes no sense for anyone but Tywin to try and deal with them. His is the only force large and mobile enough to trap and defeat Robb and acting like if it were possible to trap Robb then a bunch of untrained levies and Prester's 4k would of done it makes little sense to me. I didn't say it would be easy for just anyone to trap him, I said it would be very possible for Tywin Lannister and his army to do so, the army nearly 20k strong, made up of actual soldiers and with more cavalry than Robb, and with a commander who has moved armies with more speed and precision than anyone we have seen in the series, see his invasion of the Riverlands, the Reynes of Castamere, and how fast he reached King's Landing. Maybe Robb could of escaped him if Tywin returned to the Westerlands, but the odds would not be in his favor.

[Valyrian Lance]

I feel like he may have killed Robb. The exact timeline of the Crag surrender and Edmure stopping Tywin is hazy for me. But if Tywin had made it into the Westerlands, it is possible Robb wouldn't have had time to stay in the Crag for the night.

[Blackfish Tully]

6 minutes ago, Boarsbane said:

. I didn't say it would be easy for just anyone to trap him, I said it would be very possible for Tywin Lannister and his army to do so, the army nearly 20k strong, made up of actual soldiers and with more cavalry than Robb, and with a commander who has moved armies with more speed and precision than anyone we have seen in the series, see his invasion of the Riverlands, the Reynes of Castamere, and how fast he reached King's Landing. Maybe Robb could of escaped him if Tywin returned to the Westerlands, but the odds would not be in his favor.

Robb has done a pretty good job of moving his men with speed and precision see Wispering Woods , Battle of the Camps , Oxcross .

I have a hard time believing that with the men from Oxcross , other soldiers in Lannisport and Casterly Rock and whatever other men from the towns and castles of the Westerlands Daven could not raise at least 2 or 3 thousand competent soldiers to deal with the 500 or so that Karstark has . As for him getting trapped how would that happen ? Robb and his men have no knowledge of the Westerlands and Daven and his men would all be intimately aware of every part of the Westerlands plus Daven would have the locals and castles and towns all working with him plus the fact that the mountains block Robb's men from moving around in the Westerlands . 

[Blackfish Tully]

4 minutes ago, Valyrian Lance said:

I feel like he may have killed Robb. The exact timeline of the Crag surrender and Edmure stopping Tywin is hazy for me. But if Tywin had made it into the Westerlands, it is possible Robb wouldn't have had time to stay in the Crag for the night.

The timeline is tough because of the POV system but if Robb had not attacked the Crag before finding out that Tywin was coming West then he would just abandon that attack and he would not get hurt . 

Even if he was hurt don't forget how big the Westerlands are , it's probably 200 miles from Golden Tooth to Oxcross and probably another 300 to the Crag , that is a lot of ground to cover , it would probably take Tywin a week just to get from the Golden Tooth to Oxcross and Robb would have plenty of time to recover enough to ride .  It don't remember how badly he was hurt not sure if it ever really explained but he seemed completely healed when he road back to the Riverlands not to long after that.

 

 

[Boarsbane]

20 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Robb has done a pretty good job of moving his men with speed and precision see Wispering Woods , Battle of the Camps , Oxcross .

I have a hard time believing that with the men from Oxcross , other soldiers in Lannisport and Casterly Rock and whatever other men from the towns and castles of the Westerlands Daven could not raise at least 2 or 3 thousand competent soldiers to deal with the 500 or so that Karstark has . As for him getting trapped how would that happen ? Robb and his men have no knowledge of the Westerlands and Daven and his men would all be intimately aware of every part of the Westerlands plus Daven would have the locals and castles and towns all working with him plus the fact that the mountains block Robb's men from moving around in the Westerlands . 

And that's why he I said maybe he could escape but the odds are against him. He's facing a seasoned commander who knows the lands better and has a larger army than him, he even has more cavalry and he has people all over the region that are no friend to Robb that will grow much bolder with Tywin back in the West.

And I have a hard time believing someone who is portrayed as intelligent and competent like Daven would march out of Lannisport, if his men can even march yet, with an untrained army to hunt down Rickard Karstark or anyone for that matter. Stop with the strawman about the Lannisters knowing every inch of the Westerlands, I never said that. The Westerlands is their home though so if you think that doesn't give them some sort of advantage over a foreigner I really don't know what else to say. In Daven's case not enough an advantage because he doesn't have enough men and they are of low quality and since he has a brain he isn't going to try and chase anyone down with him despite his superior knowledge of the land.

[Blackfish Tully]

6 minutes ago, Boarsbane said:

And that's why he I said maybe he could escape but the odds are against him. He's facing a seasoned commander who knows the lands better and has a larger army than him, he even has more cavalry and he has people all over the region that are no friend to Robb that will grow much bolder with Tywin back in the West.

And I have a hard time believing someone who is portrayed as intelligent and competent like Daven would march out of Lannisport, if his men can even march yet, with an untrained army to hunt down Rickard Karstark or anyone for that matter. Stop with the strawman about the Lannisters knowing every inch of the Westerlands, I never said that. The Westerlands is their home though so if you think that doesn't give them some sort of advantage over a foreigner I really don't know what else to say. In Daven's case not enough an advantage because he doesn't have enough men and they are of low quality and since he has a brain he isn't going to try and chase anyone down with him despite his superior knowledge of the land.

What about when Robb is attacking Ashemark and the Crag? those castles are on the other side of the mountains and would have totally isolated Robb's men , couldn't Daven have gotten a couple thousand experienced men from  the Golden Tooth (you don't need 4K men to garrison a castle ) to come down to Lannisport  and you have to figure that even if most of the men he had at Lannisport are untrained he would have a percent that knew what they were doing, say a thousand or so and he could have called his bannermen and raised at least another few hundred experienced men , Karstark only has 500 hundred or so with him so with Daven superior knowledge of the terrain he should have a massive advantage so i'm just not sure why he did not do anything to avenge his father . 

 

[Boarsbane]

1 hour ago, Blackfish Tully said:

What about when Robb is attacking Ashemark and the Crag? those castles are on the other side of the mountains and would have totally isolated Robb's men , couldn't Daven have gotten a couple thousand experienced men from  the Golden Tooth (you don't need 4K men to garrison a castle ) to come down to Lannisport  and you have to figure that even if most of the men he had at Lannisport are untrained he would have a percent that knew what they were doing, say a thousand or so and he could have called his bannermen and raised at least another few hundred experienced men , Karstark only has 500 hundred or so with him so with Daven superior knowledge of the terrain he should have a massive advantage so i'm just not sure why he did not do anything to avenge his father . 

 

It's not worth the risk, a larger army is coming and it's actually trained and mobile, perhaps Tywin wanted the 4k to join his host, no way of being sure if Daven could of ordered them to join him or not. Daven also had to consider the possibility that if he left Lannisport to chase Robb and his men they would be vulnerable to the Ironborn, whose heir is a good friend of Robb. If it were Jaime or someone like him I have no doubt he'd of tried to chase down Karstark no matter the risk but Daven isn't characterized as reckless and driven by emotion from what I remember. 

[Bernie Mac]

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

sure they are located along strategic points but there would be nothing they could do about Robb and his 6000 battle hardened soldiers riding through , is a Garrison of a few hundred men going to try and slow them down ,?good luck with that .

If ordered to they would. with no Tywin in the West there is little reason to do so, with him in the West and able to coordinate a plan of attack there is every reason why the various castles would blockade certain routes in the knowledge that it has purpose. 

Jon is not claiming that the Umbers would wipe out Stannis and his men on their way to the Dreadfort, but he points out that the very real dangers this would cause. Same when Tyrion sends out the Mountain Clans to slow down Stannis' movements.  Or even Edmure's forces against Tywin in the Riverlands, who didnt just slow Tywin down but forced him to change his entire route. 

This is pretty common warfare practices, I'm really not sure why you are so surprised at such a tactic. And the fact is it does not even have to be successful but the idea that the Blackfish, in formulating his plan, takes it for granted that is not a possibility speaks of how flawed his plan actually was. 

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

once again a individual garrison would have no chance against Robb's men so even though Tywin is back it does not make those garrison's want to throw away their lives .

Come on, that is a silly argument. We would hardly see any fighting at all in the series if soldiers thought like that, we would hardly have seen as much fighting in the actual middle ages if that was the actual thinking. 

Soldiers have pretty much always done as commanded, going to war is a risk and the chance of death always a possibility. The idea that they would start giving up and not taking orders because of the 'dangers' does not really hold up to the reality of the situation. 

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

As long as Robb stays ahead of Tywin he is in no trouble

Of course he is. He has to sleep, which means arranging camps, arranging perimeters, scouting the camp before hand. Hoping that is not attacked in the night. His men have to forage for food, he has to rely on his scouts to let him know which directions are safe and he has to hope that their information of the routes is accurate by the time he gets there. There are so many variables at play that a commander claiming he would have no trouble is either incompetent or lying through his teeth.  

The argument that he is in 'no trouble' is ridiculous even without Tywin being in the West. With him in the West the danger is amplified. 

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

and if he cannot find a place to fight Tywin he simply leaves the Westerlands and goes back to the Riverlands . He does not have to fight Tywin.

Well he does as you are glossing over the fact that he was injured at the Crag. 

But even ignoring that, him not wanting to fight does not mean he can guarantee that. That is not something he can do with any predictability when i

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

By getting Tywin back to the Westerlands Robb has already won ,

No, he has not. 

1. Robb had no idea that Stannis had a magical shadow baby assassin. Had Stannis sieged Strorm's End then Robb has not won, he has endangered himself.
2. The Tyrells were on their way. Now rather than debate whether they would have or would not have attacked the fact is Robb has no idea if they would have. Them attacking means that Robb has not only lost but he has endangered himself in the process
3. Had Tywin left earlier or immediately after the Blackwater then Robb has not won. 

 

Defeating Stafford was important, but after that the plan seems a bit hopeless. He could have done far more damage to Tywin by joining Stannis or Renly or even waiting at Harrenhal and attacking Tywin's force when Kings Landing was eventually attacked. 

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

any victory after that would just be a bonus . I doubt that even Robb or Blackfish had any illusions that they could destroy Tywin's 20K army , they simply hoped to keep them busy and maybe wear them down a little bit

and that is why people in this thread are pointing out that the plan was weak, that potentially Edmure saved Robb's life by getting involved. 

Robb's plan is a huge gamble, one that had backfired as he got himself injured fighting a much smaller enemy. He did not think he was going to get injured in taking the Crag, it is a relevant example of how plans don't always work out. 

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

Tywin had taken huge losses at Oxcross

did he? we have no idea how many he lost at Oxcross but what we do know is that they were mostly untrained green boys. 

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

and Battle of the Camps and any more losses would be very hard on his long term prospects in the War .

Allowing Robb to get back to his much larger army is a much bigger threat to his prospects in the war. 

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

This war could have lasted for many more months or even years and Robb and the Blackfish were playing the long term game .

No, they were not. Cat is furious that Renly and Stannis are taking their time. Robb's thinking, as shown how weak he left his capital, was short term thinking. 

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

As long as Robb keeps Tywin behind him he can go anywhere in the Westerland he wants ,

you keep on saying that as if the westerlands is an empty land with no one living in it. 

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

there is no other army in the Westerland the can stop him .

well yeah, there is. there are decent numbers at both Lannisport with Daven Lannister and the Golden Tooth with Prester Forley.  There are other garrisons that can blockade his path, there are castles strategically placed to stop enemy armies from simply going where they want. Robb can be delayed and ambushed and every time that happens he is that much closer to being beaten by Tywin's larger force. 

Being the home side has many advantages. 

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

he stays in front of Tywin and if he finds a place to turn and fight then that's great if not just keep going and leave the Westerlands,

That is great if his army and horses do not have to sleep or eat, unfortunately they do, that means time consumed constructing camps and defenses and time consumed either foraging or attacking lands to get food. A major benefit for Tywin is the castles and fortifications of the west will both feed and shelter his host, that he will be able to get fresh mounts and will be able to coordinate with the other castles of he west. 

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

why would they not be able to do that? isn't the Westerlands hundreds of miles across ? that's plenty of room for Robb to maneuver .

only if is empty, it is not, it is full of strategically placed castles that are designed to slow the progress of enemy armies

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

It's actually a great plan

no, it really is not. the odds are hugely against them. Good plans don't need to rely on the enemy being incompetent. 

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

and depending on what would have happen in Kings Landing it's the only plan that could have helped him .

no, not really. 

On 5/19/2018 at 10:31 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

 

We saw what happened when Edmure stopped Tywin. 

exactly. In the Riverlands Edmure was able to use the territory and lands against a much larger host. 

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

Defeating Stafford was important, but after that the plan seems a bit hopeless. He could have done far more damage to Tywin by joining Stannis or Renly or even waiting at Harrenhal and attacking Tywin's force when Kings Landing was eventually attacked. 

 

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Actually the original plan was pretty damn good , even Tywin commented on how screwed he was because of what Robb was doing . 

Ser Kevan did as he was bid. Lord Tywin unrolled the leather, smoothing it flat. "Jaime has left us in a bad way. Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm's End are calling their banners."

Tyrion smiled crookedly. "Take heart, Father. At least Rhaegar Targaryen is still dead."

 

Once the shadow baby killed Tywin the original plan went to hell but that does not mean it was a bad plan , who could have expected Renly dying like that ? Renly dying was the one thing that could really screw up Robb's plan and it's something he could not anticipate . But once Renly died Robb's best chance lay in drawing Tywin west and hoping that Stannis would take Kings Landing . There was no guarantee that it would work but it was much better than Tywin staying in the east and crushing Stannis against the walls of Kings Landing . 

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

you keep on saying that as if the westerlands is an empty land with no one living in it. 

 

it sure seems that way in that Robb and his army splits up into 5 different groups and we don't here of any response from the Westerners , where is everybody at ? 

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

This is pretty common warfare practices, I'm really not sure why you are so surprised at such a tactic. And the fact is it does not even have to be successful but the idea that the Blackfish, in formulating his plan, takes it for granted that is not a possibility speaks of how flawed his plan actually was. 

 

We don't have any idea of how Blackfish formulated his plan or the steps he took to get there , all we hear is one line that he says to Edmure but Blackfish is as experienced in warfare as any man in Westeros and so far his plans and strategies have been flawless so i find it hard to believe that he would come up with a plan that would as flawed as you make it out to be . Did he become a moron overnight and forget everything about warfare ? if they have no chance to sucessfully carry out the plan why don't they simply go back to the Riverlands ? there is nothing stopping them and they could fight Tywin there . 

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

No, they were not. Cat is furious that Renly and Stannis are taking their time. Robb's thinking, as shown how weak he left his capital, was short term thinking. 

 

Short term thinking would have been Robb attacking Harrenhall or Edmure attacking Tywin without understanding that getting him away from Kings Landing is a better long term goal . Robb decided to let Tywin and Renly/Stannis fight it out while he attacks Tywin's resources and cuts him off from his reinforcements , that's long term thinking . 

[Bernie Mac]

6 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Actually the original plan was pretty damn good , even Tywin commented on how screwed he was because of what Robb was doing . 

You seem to be crediting Robb with the Reach and Stormlands calling their banners while the Arryns and Stannis are also potential threats. 

In the same chapter Tywin points out that Stannis, not Robb, is his true threat. 

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Once the shadow baby killed Tywin the original plan went to hell but that does not mean it was a bad plan ,

kind of was, he could have been a lot more dangerous in the Riverlands after he defeated Stafford than he was in the West. 

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who could have expected Renly dying like that ? Renly dying was the one thing that could really screw up Robb's plan and it's something he could not anticipate .

What plan? Had Renly lived Tywin would never have gone West. It is only the news that Stannis was attempting to take Storm's End that gave Tywin the freedom to leave King's Landing exposed. 

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But once Renly died Robb's best chance lay in drawing Tywin west and hoping that Stannis would take Kings Landing .

His best chance would be allying with Stannis, his second best chance would be being in the Riverlands and being able to block Tywin or even part of his army to respondding to Kings Landing attacking. 

Robb gambled that Tywin would come West, it was another long shot. 

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There was no guarantee that it would work but it was much better than Tywin staying in the east and crushing Stannis against the walls of Kings Landing . 

Had Robb actually been in the Riverlands he would have been in a stronger position to influence the outcome of the battle of the blackwater. he would also have been in a stronger position to respond to the Tyrells being up for grabs, he'd also be less likely to get injured in taking castles. An injury that left him exposed to the approaching Tywin. 

 

6 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

it sure seems that way in that Robb and his army splits up into 5 different groups and we don't here of any response from the Westerners , where is everybody at ? 

 

The Westerland soldiers were safely behind their walls. 

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We don't have any idea of how Blackfish formulated his plan or the steps he took to get there ,

exactly, we have no idea if he had even located this perfect piece of land. That is why his story seems so fishy. 

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all we hear is one line that he says to Edmure but Blackfish is as experienced in warfare as any man in Westeros and so far his plans and strategies have been flawless

well, no, clearly not as neither Robb or the Blackfish were under the impression that Robb would get injured in the taking of the Crag. They were hugely lucky that Edmure stopped Tywin, from what we know it looks like Edmure saved Robb's life. 

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so i find it hard to believe that he would come up with a plan that would as flawed as you make it out to be

and yet it is. Robb was injured at the Crag, his position was weak. 

Even ignoring this we know the facts of the situation

• outnumbered almost almost 4:1, perhaps more when Westerland garrisons factored in
• less cavalry than Tywin
• needing to forage and build defenses to sleep
• needing to avoid confrontations with garrisons
• needing to know that the entire path out of the West is clear. 

The odds were hugely against them with the information we know. That does not mean that it is impossible for a Robb victory but all the tangible advantages lay with the home side. The Blackfish's plan does not outweigh the actual facts we have on the matter, you believing his vague plan trumps the reality of the situation is just a poor argument. 

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Did he become a moron overnight and forget everything about warfare ?

if he truly does not see the reality of the situation then yes, but it seems clear to many in this thread that the Blackfish was either lying or exaggerating about the confidence he had in his plan in an effort to pressure Edmure in making a deal that would potentially save Robb's kingdom. 

the fate of the Blackfish's family was at stake, it is easy to see why he would make such a move. 

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if they have no chance to sucessfully carry out the plan why don't they simply go back to the Riverlands ?

they were waiting for the Ironborn. Robb only finds out about Theon's betrayal after the Battle of Blackwater. 

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there is nothing stopping them and they could fight Tywin there . 

Exactly. He made the wrong call. It happens. Both Tywin and Stannis have made the wrong call, why do you believe that the 16 year old Robb is incapable of doing so? 

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Short term thinking would have been Robb attacking Harrenhall

No, not really. Holding Harrenhal under siege stops Tywin from responding, or only partially responding, to Kings Landing being attacked, it allows him to stop the Riverlands from being a warzone with Tywin not being able to send out raiding hosts as easily, allows the Riverlands to partially rebuild and farm before winter arrived. This is hardly short term thinking. 

 

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or Edmure attacking Tywin without understanding that getting him away from Kings Landing is a better long term goal .

except the information that Riverrun had was that Stannis had begun a likely long siege of Storm's End. only with the benefit of hindsight does that decision look bad. 

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Robb decided to let Tywin and Renly/Stannis fight it out while he attacks Tywin's resources and cuts him off from his reinforcements , that's long term thinking . 

it was short term., the entire strategy was, he chose to ride to a castle on a whim he was unlikely to take, not without serious casualties and yet miraculously finds a secret passage that does not alert anyone in the West to know, he also manages to go unseen in the West and surprise an idiot commander who posted no sentries. Once again he should have had casualties in this battle, him not getting any major ones was more to do with luck than strategy. 

[norwaywolf123]

Assuming that Tywin's goes west and Edmure don't stop him. Then Edmure can deny Tywin passage east. This means Tywin could be contained in the West. Tywin being contained in the West would either have to count on Tyrells saving Joffrey&co while he was focusing on the Westerlands.

The fighting in the Westerlands would give a adavantege to Lanniser forces over Stark forces, allthough the Starks can easily fo more damage than the Lannisters here. This is because civilians are easier to kill than militaries. Perhaps  Robb could try to cause a famine in the Westerlands? Then Robb would get real revenge as Lannister property dies. Perhaps religious tensions could be weaponised? Any followers of the old gods might be more likely to support Stark forces. At the same time House Lannister can rally around the Faith of the Seven. This might lead to religiously motivated civilwar which would likely be devastating.

Assuming Stannis then takes King's landing, i think his legitmacy and support would increase. Reacher lords that don't already support him would show him support now. The Martells and Dorne would be friendly to Stannis after he gives them justice. The Vale has yet to rebell against the ironthrone and would likely side with Stannis. The Iron Isles would do their thing. Stannis would also consolidate the crownlands quickly. In the riverlands we would see riverlords shifting towards Stannis, those who supported the Lannisters would likely be the first. House Lannister has not declared independance and could accept the loss and accept Stannis overlordship, which i think they would. If House Stark and some riverlords then refuse to surrender then they would obliterated. The Freys i assume would jump ship, leaving the Starks stranded and surrounded by enemies.

[Blackfish Tully]

11 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

What plan? Had Renly lived Tywin would never have gone West. It is only the news that Stannis was attempting to take Storm's End that gave Tywin the freedom to leave King's Landing exposed. 

 

I was referring to the original plan to head west and attack Stafford .

 

11 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

it was short term., the entire strategy was, he chose to ride to a castle on a whim he was unlikely to take, not without serious casualties and yet miraculously finds a secret passage that does not alert anyone in the West to know, he also manages to go unseen in the West and surprise an idiot commander who posted no sentries. Once again he should have had casualties in this battle, him not getting any major ones was more to do with luck than strategy. 

Even if Robb does not find the secret passage he still would have went west , there was really no need to try and take the Golden Tooth he could simply bypass the castle , his main goal was Stafford and his army . Not finding the path around Golden Tooth would have made surprising Stafford impossible but he would have still had faith that his experienced soldiers  would defeat Stafford and his inexperienced soldiers and then he could plunder the west and at the very least cut off Tywin from his reinforcements and resources . His goal was to destroy the Lannisters and cutting off Tywin from the west and plundering his resources while Tywin fights Renly and/or Stannis was the best path to that goal and the added goal of setting himself up to dealing with either Stannis or Renly if they come out on top . 

 

11 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

except the information that Riverrun had was that Stannis had begun a likely long siege of Storm's End. only with the benefit of hindsight does that decision look bad. 

 

expect for the fact that sieges are unpredictable , that siege could have lasted a year or just one day but Edmure lacked the foresight to see that Tywin in the Westerlands was the best plan and that's OK , everybody makes mistakes , Robb made mistakes some really big ones and so did Edmure so I'm not sure why it's so hard to admit that . 

 

Look at it this way . there is 100% chance that Edmure stopping Tywin leading to Robb's death , that's just a book fact . 

Edmure not stopping Tywin might still lead to Robb's death . Tywin could kill him in the West or the Tyrells may still attack Kings Landing without Tywin's help but there is a chance even if it's not a great chance that Robb is able to keep Tywin in the West long enough for Stannis to attack Kings Landing and the Tyrells decide that without Tywin it's to risky to attack Stannis or they wait to long for Tywin and Stannis has already taken the city and they bend the knee . If Stannis takes Kings Landing Robb would leave the west as soon as possible and go back to the Riverlands and regroup and wait to see what happens in Kings Landing and see what Tywin wiil do  . The odds might not be in his favor in the events but it's better then 100% chance of dying . 

11 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

No, not really. Holding Harrenhal under siege stops Tywin from responding, or only partially responding, to Kings Landing being attacked, it allows him to stop the Riverlands from being a warzone with Tywin not being able to send out raiding hosts as easily, allows the Riverlands to partially rebuild and farm before winter arrived. This is hardly short term thinking. 

 

 

except it allows Stafford the chance to raise and train his army and link up with the 4K at the Golden Tooth and then the Robb and the Riverlords now have another Lannister army in the Riverlands. Better to destroy that Lannister army before it's ready and then cut off Tywin from his reinforcements and resources and let Renly and Tywin fight each other and Robb and the Riverlords can sit back and conserve their resources and deal with whoever comes out on top . 

[Blackfish Tully]

11 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

Even ignoring this we know the facts of the situation

• outnumbered almost almost 4:1, perhaps more when Westerland garrisons factored in
• less cavalry than Tywin
• needing to forage and build defenses to sleep
• needing to avoid confrontations with garrisons
• needing to know that the entire path out of the West is clear. 

The odds were hugely against them with the information we know. That does not mean that it is impossible for a Robb victory but all the tangible advantages lay with the home side. The Blackfish's plan does not outweigh the actual facts we have on the matter, you believing his vague plan trumps the reality of the situation is just a poor argument. 

i

one of the main advantages for Robb is that he does not need a victory all he has to do is not be destroyed by Tywin . Beating Tywin in the Westerlands would be a huge task maybe impossible but just keeping Tywin engaged and not being destroyed by him is not nearly as difficult . Tywin has to be careful of falling into the very type of trap that Blackfish is trying to spring so he can't just chase after Robb without any regard for his own safety so that would enable Robb to possibly stay away from any type of full scale battle . Tywin is the one who is on a time crunch so Robb does not have to defeat Tywin just keep him  in the West for as long as possible . Just Tywin getting from Harrenhall to the Crag would take at least a couple of weeks and then the trip back potentially fighting through the Riverlands would take a couple of more weeks maybe longer so every day that Tywin is engaged in the West is one more day that Stannis can take Kings Landing . 

If the question was could Robb defeat Tywin in the Westerlands then you would be right on all your points but the question is not whether or not Robb can defeat Tywin but is whether or not he can manage to survive which he has a much better chance .

 

11 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

if he truly does not see the reality of the situation then yes, but it seems clear to many in this thread that the Blackfish was either lying or exaggerating about the confidence he had in his plan in an effort to pressure Edmure in making a deal that would potentially save Robb's kingdom. 

 

I just find it hard to believe that Blackfish would lie or exaggerate when it come to matters of warfare , maybe that makes me naive but that's just what i believe . 

[Blackfish Tully]

maybe a good comparison would be a journeyman fighter fighting Mike Tyson in his prime . What are the chances of a journeyman fighter actually beating Mike Tyson ? probably close to zero , but the chances of this same fighter surviving a few rounds with Mike Tywin ? maybe 10 to 20% or so . It's the same with Robb , he does not have to defeat Tywin just survive a few rounds with him , with 6K experienced battle hardened soldiers and one of the best military minds & best scout leaders in Westeros in  Blackfish he has a good chance of surviving and hopefully Stannis takes Kings Landing .  

 

[Chancho]

6 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Assuming that Tywin's goes west and Edmure don't stop him. Then Edmure can deny Tywin passage east. This means Tywin could be contained in the West. Tywin being contained in the West would either have to count on Tyrells saving Joffrey&co while he was focusing on the Westerlands.

The fighting in the Westerlands would give a adavantege to Lanniser forces over Stark forces, allthough the Starks can easily fo more damage than the Lannisters here. This is because civilians are easier to kill than militaries. Perhaps  Robb could try to cause a famine in the Westerlands? Then Robb would get real revenge as Lannister property dies. Perhaps religious tensions could be weaponised? Any followers of the old gods might be more likely to support Stark forces. At the same time House Lannister can rally around the Faith of the Seven. This might lead to religiously motivated civilwar which would likely be devastating.

Assuming Stannis then takes King's landing, i think his legitmacy and support would increase. Reacher lords that don't already support him would show him support now. The Martells and Dorne would be friendly to Stannis after he gives them justice. The Vale has yet to rebell against the ironthrone and would likely side with Stannis. The Iron Isles would do their thing. Stannis would also consolidate the crownlands quickly. In the riverlands we would see riverlords shifting towards Stannis, those who supported the Lannisters would likely be the first. House Lannister has not declared independance and could accept the loss and accept Stannis overlordship, which i think they would. If House Stark and some riverlords then refuse to surrender then they would obliterated. The Freys i assume would jump ship, leaving the Starks stranded and surrounded by enemies.

You have a point in all these things, but the question is more like focusing in Robb and his army...

I mean if the battle of blackwater had unfolded in any way diferent of the way it did, Tywin woul be fucked... Too many enemies, the Tyrells could even more things, but without a king the Tyrells would not be so eager to unite for sure.

I can only see Robb's run South of the Westerlands without a battle happening, but he can be surprised there because it's enemy land still... And would be a bad decision to circuvent the mountains South by Tyrell Land's, he can't piss the Tyrell's taking from his land and he would be away for like forever, out a touch, taking the much much longer road back to the riverlands.

[Arthur Peres]

Robb went to the Westerlands and by passed the Golden Tooth without problem, there he ambushed Stafford also without problem, he split his forces, he then raided and looted the place,  captures several castles and drove thousands of livestocks from the west to the riverlands, without oposition, all of this show us that he knew the place well enough. Even when the freys clashed with Robb and went home alone they still made it without problem.

it's pretty clear that Robb could have went in and out of the Westerlands without problem. His plan was to lure Tywin west and them put him in a merry chase  at the coast them outmanuver him and keep running until they reach a fortified position that he found earlier.

He is not risking a ambush on Tywin, he does not want to give Tywin a battle, his plan is sound. Use his smaller and more mobile force to drive Tywin where he wants, he knows he can't run forever so he set up a strong defensive position that would be foolish to atack them gaining enough time so that Stannis takes KL. We don't know what this position that he prepared is, could be a narrow place where numbers would be useless, could be a higher ground, could be a fort or a rivercross we don't have a POV there to describe it for us.

The only question is that if you belive or not in Blackfish.

From what he know of him he never made a military blunder. He ambushed Jaime without problem, he didn't fall into Tywin's plan to fight at Harenhall, much otherwise his plan is to revert the situation and force Tywin into a position he wants while Stannis does his dirty work and he nearly pulled it off, only being doomed by Edmure.