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Did Edmure save Robb's Life?


Chancho

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30 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Dude I know what a castle is and what it does . A castle may sit next to a road or "command " the road but they usually don't block the road . 

But clearly in the case of the Golden Tooth it does, and you seemed to be under the impression, despite what we are told in the books, that it did not. 

I can only go by the things you say and from what you have written you seem to have underestimated the importance of castles in protecting strategic routes. 

30 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Harrenhall is one of the strongest castles in Westeros but if Tywin can't take it from Lady Whent it does not mean he has to turn around and go back , he can just ride right by it .

Well yes. Tywin with a 20k army and Shella not having enough people to garrison the castle while the area around Harrenhal being wide open means that Shella was not in a position to. 

You do realize that Shella Whent's lack of garrison and the location of Harrnenhal is not going to apply to every castle in the realm? 

Many castles are designed to protect and defend the routes from enemy attacks. Had Shella had a proper garrison she would be in a stronger position to slow down Tywin's advance. 

30 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

As long as he stays far enough from the walls he would have no problem .

 

Right, which again is likely to slow him down having, at times, to take longer routes to avoid attack. Now this is easy enough when there is no army large enough formed in the West to deal with Robb,  but once Tywin's back time becomes an issue and with co-ordination with Ravens and the various garrisons roads can be blockaded to force Robb into having to go routes he did not want or to take even longer finding a safer route to go. 

The majority of the advantages are with the home side., not with the away team. Unless the invading army has superior weaponry they are unlikely to be able to dictate the terms of battle. If Robb could exchange a thousand of his knights for longbowmen I'd be more inclined to feel that he could come out either unscathed or even the winner, but he does have such an advantage and based on the empirical evidence the odds were against him. 

 

Now let me stress once again, the odds being against Robb does not mean victory was not impossible for him, just that if we were to pick a winner on what we know of the conflict the odds favor Tywin more than they do Robb. 

30 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Same with Winterfell or even Casterly Rock , if the enemy outside is too strong then they would just stay behind the walls and watch them ride by just like Cat suggested Edmure do to Tywin at Riverrun .

No, I don't think that is true. A properly garrisoned castle could cause problems for any invading army. A properly garrisoned castle receiving a message via raven of the approaching army could plan ahead. 

I don't want to be rude about your knowledge of medieval castles and their garrisons but what you are writing makes it look like you think they are only useful for hiding from the enemy, there were a lot more proactive than that. 

30 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Storms End , Kings Landing , Crag , Ashemark etc none of these castles will physically stop an enemy from passing by as far as i know but the main reason to take a castle like the Golden Tooth would be to protect your supply lines but Robb is planning on living off the Westerlands so there is no reason  to take the Golden Tooth .

No, the only reason he did not have to face a battle and obstruction from the Golden Tooth was his magical direwolf found a secret passage way. Otherwise he would have had to given battle. Why do you think GRRM has the reaction of him getting passed as being shock? If castles are so ineffective against hosts why does GRRM have a direwolf find the secret pathway to avoid the confrontation? 

30 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Why would the 4000 men in the Golden Tooth come out and fight Robb when they can simply send a raven to Stafford and let him deal with him .

Well this argument is simply obtuse. Armies are not democracies, they are lead by the nobility and if Prester orders an attack then there will be an attack. 

This is the fourth time you have came up with the argument that soldiers, who earn their living from fighting, would refuse to. Deserters refuse, employed soldiers follow orders. Please learn the distinction. 

30 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

I guarantee that when Robb left the West he simply road past the Golden Tooth and the men inside just waved at him when he passed , why would they try to stop him from leaving ?

How can you guarantee that? Why would he have not used the same route he came into the West from? 

And once again you are ignoring my argument, Tywin and his army being in the West changes the scenario, the garrisons can go from defense to attack knowing that there is an army actually able to take advantage of their attacks. 

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20 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

How can I show you a position that the Blackfish more than likely made up because Robb was desperate for Edmure to marry a Frey? 

"We must win back the Freys," said Robb. "With them, we still have some chance of success, however small. Without them, I see no hope. I am willing to give Lord Walder whatever he requires . . . apologies, honors, lands, gold . . . there must be something that would soothe his pride . . ."

Robb is desperate to in win back the Freys, there is a legitimate reason why Robb and the Blackfish would manipulate Edmure, it is for the greater good. The very same chapter this happens Cat herself realizes she is being manipulated by her son

Only then came her belated remembrance. Follies done for love? He has bagged me neat as a hare in a snare. I seem to have already forgiven him. Mixed with her annoyance was a rueful admiration; the scene had been staged with the cunning worthy of a master mummer . . . or a king. 

Winning back the Freys is worth manipulating Edmure. Robb and the Blackfish are desperate to win, if that means pulling the wool over Edmure's eyes then they will do it. Even Ned Stark has been shown to lie when it is necessary.

On your own quotes Robb does not mention a marriage anywhere, it's Catelyn that comes up with the idea of the marriage.

“Not something,” said Catelyn. “Someone.”

Robb didn't want to shame Edmure as he praised him in front of his lords just to scold him when alone. He do not need that. A Frey is by no means a bad match for Edmure, they are his strongest bannerman, it's not like Robb is forcing Edmure to marry someone under his status.

You're are the one going against Blackfish without any othe character to back you up, only by your feelings on the matter, just like you went against Luwin when I quoted him. It's in the book said by a character that knows about the matter at hand. We don't.

22 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Yes. Why would you think that many of the castles in the West were not in such a state? The Crag alone had a larger and more experienced garrison than the one Robb left Winterfell and we know how both poor they were and how low on the importance rung they were in the Westerlands. I'd imagine the majority of Lords would have left their castle better defended. 

Quote

False. The Craig was poorly defended as Robb tell us.

“I took her castle and she took my heart.,’ Robb smiled. “The Crag was weakly garrisoned, so we took it by storm one night. Black Walder and the Smalljon led scaling parties over the walls, while I broke the main gate with a ram. I took an arrow in the arm just before Ser Rolph yielded us the castle. It seemed nothing at first, but it festered. Jeyne had me taken to her own bed, and she nursed me until the fever passed. And she was with me when the Greatjon brought me the news of... of Winterfell. Bran and Rickon.” He seemed to have trouble saying his brothers’ names. “That night, she... she comforted me, Mother.”

Theon had to lure Rodrik out of Winterfell to take it.

34 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

So even with this example you are stating that Robb would be unable to march for almost a month. Given that Tywin was heading West the same time Robb was taking the Crag then the timeline suggests he would still be injured by the time Tywin arrived. 

 

Sure, because a arrow in the lung that infected is the same as a arrow in the arm that healed well.

Robb couldn't take the field in person or enter in combat, but I doubt that he was that bad when he was humping Jeyne. Even if I conced to you that he can't ride he could still take a carriage.

41 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

If this was any other commanders but Robb and the Blackfish with the exact same odds this would not be a debate 7 pages long were the same two people can't accept that their favorite characters are in a position were the odds are against them. It is ridiculous and the fact that the one argument the two of you keep on resorting to is that the Blackfish can't be wrong makes it shows neither are you care about the reality of the situation.

Edmure was able to take on Tywin with half his number when he had a good position. I trust more on Blackfish that Edmure.

Stannis, Tarly or Robert B. Would also get the same treatment or even more, at least for me. Blackfish and Robb proved to be great generals that pulled off great plans and they worked. Tywin got tricked by Robb in the field at every turn.

you presents Blackfish as wrong but you reasons are:

1- they are outnumbered

This is a problem but terrain and right position fix this as proved  even by Edmure. Also Tywin marching after Robb with his full force would be slower than Robb. Horses kind run faster.

2- They are in the enemy lands and the Westernlands know the land better

Robb already scouted the area and prepared the position, he founded paths that even the natives know about. He has a magic wolf to help more, and we have much plenty of exemples of the invaders beating the natives as show by Stannis at the Wall for exemple.

3- your pointed out that Tywin could split up and chase Robb with only his cavalry

But them you are turning a 6k vs 20k into a 6k vs 7k...Tywin never risked something like that.

4- Castles will block Robb and catch him

but then you imideatly refused the idea of Robb taking several castles even when I showed you the quote to prove it... you said Luwin was talking about Riverrun when he is cleary talking about knews and they already know prior to that, that Robb has freely Riverrun and was crowed there. But you don't provide any quotes for this deny.

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If Tywin or Stannis were in the North, Vale, Dorne, Riverlands, Reach, Vale or Stormlands facing an army 4x time their number, facing an enemy at the same technological level (if anything the West may be a little more advanced), a system of communication between settlements and a hostile populace then they would more than likely be beaten. This is about simple odds. The commander does not really come into it. They would all be a longshot to win against those odds. 

One example of a hostile population being dangerous to foreign armies is the Skottetog.

https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skottetoget_1612

During the Kalmar war in Scandinavia some scottish mercenaries were ambushed and defeated while attempting to cross Norway into Sweden. It was local peasants who defeated the mercenaries not trained soldiers.

 

 

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Believe the Golden tooth, stratigical border place, 4000 soldiers, 400 plus garrisson... stronghold 2000 spears 2000 bows, safe attacks from behind the wall, road baricaded, no pass zone... He who picks battle there is death.

3 armies on the lannister side - Tywin Mighty, Daven Scrubst and ever on point the Prester's Squad.

 

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8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

Well this argument is simply obtuse. Armies are not democracies, they are lead by the nobility and if Prester orders an attack then there will be an attack. 

This is the fourth time you have came up with the argument that soldiers, who earn their living from fighting, would refuse to. Deserters refuse, employed soldiers follow orders. Please learn the distinction. 

 

It's not a question about the soldiers refusing to fight it's a question of why would Prester order an attack . He has 4000 men against the 6000 of Robb's . The smarter course is just to let him pass and let Stafford deal with him . You have made the argument earlier in this thread that the Westerland Lords were smart to not engage Robb after Oxcross because they should wait for Tywin but you want Prester to attack 6000 horsemen with his 4000 men , that makes little sense . 

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8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

How can you guarantee that? Why would he have not used the same route he came into the West from? 

 

wouldn't the soldiers at the Golden Tooth have found the goat path and blocked it up or at least guarded it ? They know Robb was in the West and they know he did not come by the road so they would definitely try to figure out how he bypassed them and attempt to block that passage . That's just common sense . 

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9 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

No, I don't think that is true. A properly garrisoned castle could cause problems for any invading army. A properly garrisoned castle receiving a message via raven of the approaching army could plan ahead. 

I

it all depends on the size of the army and the size of the garrison . if you have a 1000 man garrison at Harrenhall and Tywin coming towards you with his 20,000 soldiers there is very little you can do . If you send out the 1000 men to try and slow down the army you are going to wind up with 1000 corpses . That's why Robb was able to have free rein in the Westerlands after Oxcross , nobody was willing to risk their men against a foe they could not defeat . I'm sure his men rode by a bunch of castles that did nothing to slow him down . Even when he split his forces in to 5 smaller groups the Western Lords did nothing but hide in their castles and fortified towns . 

 

9 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

But clearly in the case of the Golden Tooth it does, and you seemed to be under the impression, despite what we are told in the books, that it did not. 

 

where are we told in the books that the Golden Tooth actually blocks the pass ? we are told that it "commands the hill road" which is different then "blocks the hill road " and is the hill road the only way  through the pass ? clearly not as Robb used an unknown trail that Westerners who have lived there for thousands of years did not know about .  Are there other ways through the pass that keeps Robb safe from the castle walls but not unseen ? you act like we know everything about the Golden Tooth when frankly we know crap about it . 

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3 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

wouldn't the soldiers at the Golden Tooth have found the goat path and blocked it up or at least guarded it ? They know Robb was in the West and they know he did not come by the road so they would definitely try to figure out how he bypassed them and attempt to block that passage . That's just common sense . 

Do they have magical direwolves to help them search? 

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20 minutes ago, Boarsbane said:

Do they have magical direwolves to help them search? 

how hard would it be to find it ? 6000 horsemen road down this path i would think there would be some signs of their passing , probably horse crap all over the place , just  search for where they came out and backtrack . I would think that somewhere e among the 4000 men in the Golden Tooth they would have a couple who can track 6000 horses? wouldn't a castle like that have some hunters providing meat who know the area . How big is the pass that that it would be that hard to find this trail? 

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 Yet he keeps telling this story that 2000 bowmen and his commander, all safe behind a Strong wall would be afraid to kill northmen. A 4000 plus garrison who would at least odd wise, have eevery single advantage agaisnt Robb's force.


Pass by he says.... Ain't that smart, leave to Stafford to deal, when the stylistic nightmare agaisn't the small, only cavalry army, would be a Strong garrison, at a Strong castle, at a Strong position, that could block their passage by a lot of means while atacking at distance.

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5 minutes ago, Chancho said:

 Yet he keeps telling this story that 2000 bowmen and his commander, all safe behind a Strong wall would be afraid to kill northmen. A 4000 plus garrison who would at least odd wise, have eevery single advantage agaisnt Robb's force.


Pass by he says.... Ain't that smart, leave to Stafford to deal, when the stylistic nightmare agaisn't the small, only cavalry army, would be a Strong garrison, at a Strong castle, at a Strong position, that could block their passage by a lot of means while atacking at distance.

I'm not saying that they are afraid to kill Northmen but what i am saying is that they would be afraid to come out from behind their walls and face Robb's 6000 in the open and  why wouldn't they be ? they would be outnumbered and they have no cavalry.    

how much do you know about the pass ? how wide is it ? is there more than one road ? can the pass  be blockaded? and even if it could be blockaded  would they have time before Robb arrived ? If Robb attacked the walls then 4000 would be plenty of men to fight them off but if there is enough room in the pass that Robb  could move through the pass without getting close enough to the walls for the bowmen then there is really not much he could do . Prester has no Calvary and he is under numbered 6 to 4  , why would he bring his men outside the walls to face Robb ? Daven and the Golden Tooth men  outnumbered Robb's split up forces after Oxcross and they did absolutely nothing (which is the right move , why throw away more Western lives ) , Robb had free rein of the Westerlands , if it is so easy to defeat Robb's horsemen then why did Daven not do it or why didn't Prester bring his 4000 down after Oxcross to attack Robb? 

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21 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

I'm not saying that they are afraid to kill Northmen but what i am saying is that they would be afraid to come out from behind their walls and face Robb's 6000 in the open and  why wouldn't they be ? they would be outnumbered and they have no cavalry.    

how much do you know about the pass ? how wide is it ? is there more than one road ? can the pass  be blockaded? and even if it could be blockaded  would they have time before Robb arrived ? If Robb attacked the walls then 4000 would be plenty of men to fight them off but if there is enough room in the pass that Robb  could move through the pass without getting close enough to the walls for the bowmen then there is really not much he could do . Prester has no Calvary and he is under numbered 6 to 4  , why would he bring his men outside the walls to face Robb ? Daven and the Golden Tooth men  outnumbered Robb's split up forces after Oxcross and they did absolutely nothing (which is the right move , why throw away more Western lives ) , Robb had free rein of the Westerlands , if it is so easy to defeat Robb's horsemen then why did Daven not do it or why didn't Prester bring his 4000 down after Oxcross to attack Robb? 

They can attack from distance, while can block the roads with barricades, as all ROAD BORDERS especially in war would have... logs, spikes, rubbish, rocks, or the most simple of the simpliest barricades, that would make they dismount and remove wherever is in the way, like sitting ducks getting bolted...

EVEn if the ROAd is massive wich souldn't been because there is not a giant flux of goods  (is not the 21 century!), it's not hard at all to block a road, even a bigger one, you must have at least seen a protest or a road block in your life, just throw logs in this case, loads of it, you can even burn them for visibility and enhance the blockade... 6000 cavalry will be spoted easilly, and of course a border defense important like this one, don't wait to the last second to prepare things, that is the sole purpose of this castle defend the road.

No need to bring nobody anywhere he is already there commanding the road and can fight  without exposing himself... Daven didn't have a Strong castle, at a Strong position, with a Strong garrison, and couldn't attack without being attacked... SO why would Prester surrender all that... Just so your favorite army looks invencible in any situation? Daven or any army in the West at the time wouldn't had a decent chance at open field agaisnt Robb's army... Prester tough had every advantage, Robb literally HAVE NOTHING going for him passing the GOLDEN TOOTH...

And if you think its a joke to have a rain of blots while you can't move foward... Well... Just look at some battles won by distance fighting.

 

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1 minute ago, Chancho said:

They can attack from distance, while can block the roads with barricades, as all ROAD BORDERS especially in war would have... logs, spikes, rubbish, rocks, or the most simple of the simpliest barricades, that would make they dismount and remove wherever is in the way, like sitting ducks getting bolted...

EVEn if the ROAd is massive wich souldn't been because there is not a giant flux of goods  (is not the 21 century!), it's not hard at all to block a road, even a bigger one, you must have at least seen a protest or a road block in your life, just throw logs in this case, loads of it, you can even burn them for visibility and enhance the blockade... 6000 cavalry will be spoted easilly, and of course a border defense important like this one, don't wait to the last second to prepare things, that is the sole purpose of this castle defend the road.

No need to bring nobody anywhere he is already there commanding the road and can fight  without exposing himself... Daven didn't have a Strong castle, at a Strong position, with a Strong garrison, and couldn't attack without being attacked... SO why would Prester surrender all that... Just so your favorite army looks invencible in any situation? Daven or no any army in the West at the time would  had a decent chance at open field agaisnt Robb's army... Prester tough had every advantage, Robb literally HAVE NOTHING going for him passing the GOLDEN TOOTH...

And if you think its a joke to have a rain of blots while you can't move foward... Well... Just look at some battles won by distance fighting.

 

how wide is the pass ? it must be pretty wide if there is a goat path that no one has ever seen even though they have been there more than a thousand years . If the pass is more than a mile wide that would be a pretty big area to blockade. maybe it's several miles wide . is there only one road going through it ? you need to know these things before you start talking about building barricades and blocking roads and fighting 6000 heavily armored motivated Northmen and Riverlords. Daven would also have every advantage against Robb , he knows the area , has the home court advantage and  all the castles and towns would support him . He would have more men then Robb if he added a few thousand from the Golden Tooth especially when Robb splits his forces up . What advantage does Robb have over Daven ? 

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26 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

how wide is the pass ? it must be pretty wide if there is a goat path that no one has ever seen even though they have been there more than a thousand years . If the pass is more than a mile wide that would be a pretty big area to blockade. maybe it's several miles wide . is there only one road going through it ? you need to know these things before you start talking about building barricades and blocking roads and fighting 6000 heavily armored motivated Northmen and Riverlords. Daven would also have every advantage against Robb , he knows the area , has the home court advantage and  all the castles and towns would support him . He would have more men then Robb if he added a few thousand from the Golden Tooth especially when Robb splits his forces up . What advantage does Robb have over Daven ? 

Daven have a scrub army, foot scrub, and nobody is Strong enough to assist him with battle changing stuff at the point, he can suprisse Robb if Robb become Stafford Lannister, but that would be really strange would not?

SO your theories are that the Golden tooth just defend ONE side like is not a castle, just a pile of rubbish towers like moat cailin and that the road is a MILEEEE wide, when there is mountains everywhere in between (No even weighing the fact that is really stupid to make a wide road at the portion of the road where the castle is that should be the most defensible part of the Road  to the Westlands)  . Go to flying werewolves and hiking horses, it would be a easy win for robb.

How a goat pass has any weight in the size of the road, any adjacente mountain can have a goat pass that could be no where suitable to be a road of any sort and super narrow. If there were other road the Golden Tooth would be useless and no character would be suprised by the fact Robb made West, but that is too much LOGIC for you...

Let's go with Moat Cailin of the west, a Mile Wide Road, Soldiers that won battles terrified of facing northmen when they are behind walls!

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25 minutes ago, Chancho said:

SO your theories are that the Golden tooth just defend ONE side like is not a castle, just a pile of rubbish towers like moat cailin and that the road is a MILEEEE wide, when there is mountains everywhere in between (No even weighing the fact that is really stupid to make a wide road at the portion of the road where the castle is that should be the most defensible part of the Road  to the Westlands)  . Go to flying werewolves and hiking horses, it would be a easy win for robb.

How a goat pass has any weight in the size of the road, any adjacente mountain can have a goat pass that could be no where suitable to be a road of any sort and super narrow.

It's not my theory about the Golden Tooth defending just one side , not sure where you got that from , i have no idea about anything about how the Golden Tooth is set up and neither do you , all we know if that it is a strong castle and commands the hill road . Who said the road is a mile wide ? i certainly did not , i said the pass may be a mile wide or wider , which would not be hard to believe since there is a goat path that goes through the pass that no one has found in over a 1000 years . 

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On ‎5‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 10:42 PM, Blackfish Tully said:

Also the Golden Tooth is designed to guard from  an army from coming from the Riverlands not one coming from the Westerlands.

Let's do this one last time, WHy is any character surprise that Robb goes WEST without taking the GOLDEN TOOTH? I mean you know better than everyone that is a MILE wide... This retardeds all thought for this whole time is the only way and that a battle would go down before crossing, we need better maesters in Westeros men, all this stupid character, not seeing the mile wide PASS! All this time believing the GOLDEN TOOTH is well positioned, and as yourself quote, COMMADING THE ROAD... NOW we see the truth it commands nothing, what a bunch of fools and tools, Stafford Lannister all of them!

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34 minutes ago, Chancho said:

Let's do this one last time, WHy is any character surprise that Robb goes WEST without taking the GOLDEN TOOTH? I mean you know better than everyone that is a MILE wide... This retardeds all thought for this whole time is the only way and that a battle would go down before crossing, we need better maesters in Westeros men, all this stupid character, not seeing the mile wide PASS! All this time believing the GOLDEN TOOTH is well positioned, and as yourself quote, COMMADING THE ROAD... NOW we see the truth it commands nothing, what a bunch of fools and tools, Stafford Lannister all of them!

if there is no way around the Golden Tooth then how was Lady Mormount going to get thousands of cattle through there ? i doubt she would be able to get them through a goat path and also that goat path would have been located and blocked up by Prester . Also how did the Freys and Robb get back to the Riverlands without fight through the Golden Tooth ? 

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1 hour ago, Blackfish Tully said:

if there is no way around the Golden Tooth then how was Lady Mormount going to get thousands of cattle through there ? i doubt she would be able to get them through a goat path and also that goat path would have been located and blocked up by Prester . Also how did the Freys and Robb get back to the Riverlands without fight through the Golden Tooth ? 

The goat track is the only explanation by the insight Martin offers in his story and the tone he sets on the region, Lefford's men could very well have indentified it , but there is no castle there and isn't very acessible, otherwise it wouldn't be this amazing hidden passage... So he could have guarded it, but was no near safe as the Golden tooth and he wouldn't mobilize his army for thatt... There is no evidence that you can just safely pass by the Golden tooth... This hidden spot might still not discovered by Lannisters, wich is weird, more probable tought the place still is not guarded... But Tywin is coming with an army and will pass the Golden tooth way before Robb.

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I find very odd that Stafford host made of green boys didn't join forces with Prester army that was made of veterans from Jaime's campaing. Even more when Tyrion talks about Stafford host as the ace up the Lannisters slip in his dialogue with Cleos Frey. I'm not saying this happend, just seems weird.

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3 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

I find very odd that Stafford host made of green boys didn't join forces with Prester army that was made of veterans from Jaime's campaing. Even more when Tyrion talks about Stafford host as the ace up the Lannisters slip in his dialogue with Cleos Frey. I'm not saying this happend, just seems weird.

Wasn't they being prepared a little more, i'm sure they were on the move already, oxcross is somewhat distant of lannisport, 15000 soldiers would be too much to keep on the Golden tooth and after the castle is basically enemy's land. Tywin was kind of cornered, so maybe he was waiting a better timing. Golden Tooth lays besides a lot of mountains somehow hard to keep a good camp around mountains and flat land close is already Tully's land..

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