Did Edmure save Robb's Life?

[Arthur Peres]

38 minutes ago, Chancho said:

Wasn't they being prepared a little more, i'm sure they were on the move already, oxcross is somewhat distant of lannisport, 15000 soldiers would be too much to keep on the Golden tooth and after the castle is basically enemy's land. Tywin was kind of cornered, so maybe he was waiting a better timing. Golden Tooth lays besides a lot of mountains somehow hard to keep a good camp around mountains and flat land close is already Tully's land..

I just find it weird that everybody seems to ignore Prester army.

Robb somehow knows of Stafford army before he even march, he says he has to deal with them before they are ready, but he ignores Prester.

Tyrion when thinking to himself about Robb is very confident that Tywin and Stafford could handle Robb but once again he ignores Prester.

When Theon goes to Balon he says that Robb would take the Golden Tooth as something that wouldn't be a problem, he says that with Tywin out the IB could take Casterly Rock or Lannisport. Balon cleary doubts him he made his point about not being able to take Casterly Rock and even when talking about Lannisport he is not sure. In this conversation Stafford's army is once again brought into the table by Theon but Prester is once again ignored.

 

[Arthur Peres]

I don't know if this is true so I will leave the link there but I found this interview. If the interview is true then Forley Prester army might have been wiped out together with Stafford.

 

DECEMBER 17, 1999

THE TOOTH AND THE TYROSHI

First; did Ser Forley Prester send any part of his 4000 men at the Golden Tooth to Ser Stafford Lannister at Oxcross, in order to augment his host? Or were they all kept at the Tooth by Prester?

That's much too big a garrison for a small castle like the Tooth, so I expect that he sent many of them down to Ser Stafford. Blooded veterans to help train the raw green levies... of course, that didn't work out too well...

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1064

 

[Chancho]

I don't know if it's actually quoted in the books, but i  Always was under the impression there was indeed some men send to train the younger recruits, but prester army is still at the Golden tooth minus those who went to train the scrubs of lannisport, as is mentioned during some point when daven and prester armies link up to siege riverun.

[Arthur Peres]

If the armies of Dave and Forley joined forces at the siege of riverrun, than they were probably together at Oxcross. The Lannist army sieging Riverren if I not mistaken is less than 2k including whatever Jaime brought there(acording to the wikia).

[norwaywolf123]

19 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

It's not my theory about the Golden Tooth defending just one side , not sure where you got that from , i have no idea about anything about how the Golden Tooth is set up and neither do you , all we know if that it is a strong castle and commands the hill road . Who said the road is a mile wide ? i certainly did not , i said the pass may be a mile wide or wider , which would not be hard to believe since there is a goat path that goes through the pass that no one has found in over a 1000 years . 

The goats obvously know the path since that path still is there. If not it would have been overgrown already. Perhaps some herders also know of the goat track?

[norwaywolf123]

19 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

if there is no way around the Golden Tooth then how was Lady Mormount going to get thousands of cattle through there ? i doubt she would be able to get them through a goat path and also that goat path would have been located and blocked up by Prester . Also how did the Freys and Robb get back to the Riverlands without fight through the Golden Tooth ? 

Maybe this link can help? https://quartermaester.info

Turn on Constituencies of Westeros and Robb Stark. This will give us the approximate borders of the Westerosi Lod Paramountships aswell as the path Robb took during his part in ASOIAF.

 

I think that Robb took a path through the mountains that was completly unexpected. Something similar to what Hannibal Barca did when his army crossed the Alps. The difference is that Robb's army was apparantly completly fine after the ordeal while Hannibal's army had lost loads of men and animals, and were starving. Everything GRRM writes does not need to be logical, this may be a episode where something illogical happened.

[Chancho]

8 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

If the armies of Dave and Forley joined forces at the siege of riverrun, than they were probably together at Oxcross. The Lannist army sieging Riverren if I not mistaken is less than 2k including whatever Jaime brought there(acording to the wikia).

You have to remember the war was over, that was just "simbolic" forces, they didn't need that much of an army, remember that 20000 Tywin army also disapear after a while... You men have to go home and deal with the harvest, westerlands took a beating don't make sense to keep your folks longer then they should.

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Maybe this link can help? https://quartermaester.info

Turn on Constituencies of Westeros and Robb Stark. This will give us the approximate borders of the Westerosi Lod Paramountships aswell as the path Robb took during his part in ASOIAF.

 

I think that Robb took a path through the mountains that was completly unexpected. Something similar to what Hannibal Barca did when his army crossed the Alps. The difference is that Robb's army was apparantly completly fine after the ordeal while Hannibal's army had lost loads of men and animals, and were starving. Everything GRRM writes does not need to be logical, this may be a episode where something illogical happened.

what is harder to believe ? Robb and his 6000 horsemen found a goat path that took them through the pass but was far enough from the  Golden Tooth that were not seen or that Robb and his 6000 horsemen went over the mountain ? Looking at the map that you referenced the pass is actually pretty wide and the Golden Tooth sits on the northern side of it . The goat pass  probably winds through the southern part of the pass . 

[Arthur Peres]

1 hour ago, Chancho said:

You have to remember the war was over, that was just "simbolic" forces, they didn't need that much of an army, remember that 20000 Tywin army also disapear after a while... You men have to go home and deal with the harvest, westerlands took a beating don't make sense to keep your folks longer then they should.

True.

But even so Dave Lannister was asking Kevan for reinforcements. If he had more men under his command he would probably bring them instead of asking for reinforces.

It's just very weird how everybody ignores Prester's army, and they joining forces with Stafford would make sense.

[Chancho]

Truth be told Martin's universe is too huge and he got this knack for entering and creating side stories, that i imagine must be freaking hard to keep track at everything.

[norwaywolf123]

2 hours ago, Chancho said:

Truth be told Martin's universe is too huge and he got this knack for entering and creating side stories, that i imagine must be freaking hard to keep track at everything.

Nobody is perfect.

[cpg2016]

On 5/17/2018 at 6:07 AM, Bernie Mac said:

In all likelihood he did. The odds were significantly against Robb even before he got himself injured and bedridden taking the Crag. 

• Tywin's 20k, 7k of which was mounted giving him the advantage in both men and horse
• The remnants of Stafford's host under the command of Daven at Lannissport( at least a thousand)
• The remnants of Jaime's host under the command of Prester Forley at the Golden Tooth
• The garrisons of the castles of the the Westerlands
• A superior knowledge of the terrain
• Being able to get supplies from the settlements of the Westerland nobles while Robb' host would have to either forage or steal it slowing them down. 

While nothing in war is a sure thing, as Robb could never have predicted himself getting injured when taking the poorly defended Crag proves, Tywin would have been in the stronger position. Edmore likely saved his life. 

As Robb says, his force was entirely horse, which means he doesn't have to give battle, and the entire point of the exercise was to draw Tywin away from King's Landing long enough for the capital to fall, meaning Tywin would lose the war.  Robb doesn't have to fight.

[Chancho]

3 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

As Robb says, his force was entirely horse, which means he doesn't have to give battle, and the entire point of the exercise was to draw Tywin away from King's Landing long enough for the capital to fall, meaning Tywin would lose the war.  Robb doesn't have to fight.

Yeah he doesn't... But that have been discussed a lot here... And the geography will make running for long harder or impossible, there is a lot of strategic castles and chain of mountains keeping him from choosing any direction, the enemy also knows the land better. He can maybe go South to not fight Tywin, but after that he would put himself away for war for a very long ttime just to get to the riverlands, surrounding the South mountains by TYrell lands who he can't take from it, unless he wants one more enemy.

[Bernie Mac]

On 5/31/2018 at 3:40 PM, cpg2016 said:

As Robb says, his force was entirely horse, which means he doesn't have to give battle,

He was injured and bedridden at the Crag, he's not got much choice in the matter. 

Quote

 

and the entire point of the exercise was to draw Tywin away from King's Landing long enough for the capital to fall,

No, the original point of the exercise was to stop Stafford and join up with the Ironborn to capture Lannisport. At some point it is claimed that Robb changed his gameplan, it is unclear to the reader when exactly Robb realized the Ironborn were not coming. 

Quote

 

meaning Tywin would lose the war. 

no, that is not what it means. You are confusing the best possible outcome with being the only result. My summer working as a bookie has shown far too many people confuse the two. 

Tywin losing the war is just one outcome, other outcomes are

• the Tyrells, already having traveled hundreds of miles and on the Blackwater before Tywin arrives, soundly beating Stannis who they greatly outnumber
• Tywin not heading West till after Kings Landing is attacked
• Tywin heading West and dealing with Robb before Kings Landing attacked
• Tywin receiving a messenger or a raven at the Golden Tooth and changed direction

Edmure somehow gets blamed despite Robb leaving vague instructions, even hardcore Blackfish fans acknowledge this,  the fact that Robb is clueless on the Tyrells position and his plan failing to grasp that if Edmure is to sit back and do nothing there is nothing stopping Tywin heading back. 

So Robb is basically playing the lottery, he may win but the chances are he would not (and he didn't). Edmure, in one move, did both Tywin and Robb a favor. 

Quote

 

Robb doesn't have to fight.

Except that is a pretty simplistic view point to have. The Westerlands is not some depopulated grassland devoid of obstacle or foe. The West does not have ready made bed and breakfast forts that Robb can crash at and re-up his supplies. The Westerlands is the third most densely populated region, it is the richest meaning it is likely to have a higher ration of castles/holdfasts per square mile, and being the richest many of of the lords will have been able to leave well garrisoned castles.

Him getting injured and being out of commission at the Crag perfectly demonstrates how unpredictable war, especially one in enemy territory, can be. It certainly was not part of his or the Blackfish's strategy, but it happened. 

Even ignoring the huge elephant in the room, that Robb was bedridden when Tywin was coming for him, Robb does not still get to decide he does not want to fight

• foraging for food slows him down while Tywin is fed at any of his settlements
• building well protected camps slows him down while Tywin can rest, and possibly even rehorse, at any of his settlements
• Robb is not just against Tywin's host, but against the many garrisons of the West, who thanks to Ravens can be co-coordinated. They don't need to attack Robb directly, they can simply build road blocks to slow down his progress

further more Tywin has almost twice the cavalry that Robb does. 

Thirty-five hundred they were, thirty-five hundred who had been blooded in the Whispering Wood, who had reddened their swords at the Battle of the Camps, at Oxcross, Ashemark, and the Crag, and all through the gold-rich hills of the Lannister west.

 Now add in the Frey cavalry, who like Robb's cavalry would have taken their fair share of casualties, we are looking at around 4,200 against Twyin's 7,500 cavalry, 13,500 foot, unknown thousands with Daven at Lannissport and the garrisons of the West. 

Robb would be hoping not to fight, but hope is not always enough. 

[cpg2016]

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

He was injured and bedridden at the Crag, he's not got much choice in the matter. 

No, the original point of the exercise was to stop Stafford and join up with the Ironborn to capture Lannisport. At some point it is claimed that Robb changed his gameplan, it is unclear to the reader when exactly Robb realized the Ironborn were not coming. 

The point of the exercise was to take the war to the Westerlands and harry Tywin Lannister's home base.  As a feudal lord, Robb and all his vassal lords would well know that harrying the West would force Tywin to come home; if he cannot defend his vassals land, he violates his feudal responsibilities and will lose his army and authority.  Defeating Stafford's host at Oxcross is the immediate goal in the larger plan; without that army, there is nothing to keep Robb from sacking castles and towns at will, meaning Tywin has to come back west.

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

no, that is not what it means. You are confusing the best possible outcome with being the only result. My summer working as a bookie has shown far too many people confuse the two. 

Tywin losing the war is just one outcome, other outcomes are

• the Tyrells, already having traveled hundreds of miles and on the Blackwater before Tywin arrives, soundly beating Stannis who they greatly outnumber
• Tywin not heading West till after Kings Landing is attacked
• Tywin heading West and dealing with Robb before Kings Landing attacked
• Tywin receiving a messenger or a raven at the Golden Tooth and changed direction

Your summer working as a bookie has been wasted.  Perhaps you should have read a bit in your spare time to understand what "winning" and "losing" means.  If Kings Landing falls, Tywin loses the war.  Full stop.  No ifs, ands, or buts.  If you cannot understand this, you need to reread the books.  If KL is sacked, Cersei dies, Joffrey dies, Tyrion dies, and Jaime is now a prisoner who Tywin has no one to trade for (maybe Tommen and Myrcella survive).  Which means Tywin loses.  His war aims are to preserve his grandchildren on the throne.  If he fails in that, he loses.  You don't have much of a brain so you've constructed all these other scenarios, all of which also mean Tywin loses.  Note I didn't say "Robb wins" which is the point you are arguing (because you are mostly illiterate, it seems).

And the last scenario is the most absurd.  These people don't have cars or teleporters.  It takes months to travel those distances, and as it is, Tywin makes it back east literally in the nick of time.  Another day later and he loses the war.  Beating Stannis does not mean winning, if Joffrey and two of his children die.

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Edmure somehow gets blamed despite Robb leaving vague instructions, even hardcore Blackfish fans acknowledge this,  the fact that Robb is clueless on the Tyrells position and his plan failing to grasp that if Edmure is to sit back and do nothing there is nothing stopping Tywin heading back. 

I'm not sure how "defend Riverrun" is vague.  What would be more specific?  If he said "defend your lands," that would be vague.  He was told to hold a single, specific castle, and ONLY that single, specific castle.  It is not possible, and I mean that literally, to be more specific.

And Robb is most certainly not clueless on the Tyrells position, since the first thing he says on coming back was "I told you not to stop Tywin specifically so that Stannis would take Kings Landing," showing he has a good understanding of the political situation - that the Tyrells have no reasonable claim to the throne after Renly's death and they can only help the Lannisters at that point.

And his whole effing plan is to have Tywin head back, which is why his orders allow for that to happen!  Edmure is a young aristocrat hungry for glory and to make up for earlier failures in a society where martial prowess is the highest form of social currency.  He sees his nephew hailed as a hero and military genius and wants some of that action, as he himself says.  That is why he disobeys a direct order.  This cannot be clearer.  His instruction is highly specific and unambiguous.  The only defense anyone has of Edmure is that Robb should have shared the full plan with him, which isn't even a defense of Edmure, and anyway the problems with that should be obvious on their face.

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Except that is a pretty simplistic view point to have. The Westerlands is not some depopulated grassland devoid of obstacle or foe. The West does not have ready made bed and breakfast forts that Robb can crash at and re-up his supplies. The Westerlands is the third most densely populated region, it is the richest meaning it is likely to have a higher ration of castles/holdfasts per square mile, and being the richest many of of the lords will have been able to leave well garrisoned castles.

Except we know they didn't, because Robb stacks both Ashemark and the Crag, which shouldn't be possible, really, with well-garrisoned castles.  The Greatjon captures a bunch of gold mines.  Maege Mormont raids the coast.  You know what that sounds like?  Like a bunch of armies, free to roam at will, capturing what should be well defended locations (castles, mines) and burning everything else.

Here's the thing.  Between Tywin and Jaime, huge portions of the Westerlands have been mobilized.  There are no soldiers left.  Not literally, but in any scale at all.  Hence why Stafford's force at Oxcross is all sellswords and raw young men from Lannisport.  All of the main levies have been called up.  Tywin doesn't have a reserve of garrisoned forces to call upon, they're all fighting with him in the Riverlands.

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Even ignoring the huge elephant in the room, that Robb was bedridden when Tywin was coming for him, Robb does not still get to decide he does not want to fight

You are aware that Robb is with a big honkin army, and not doing all of this literally by himself, right?  And that Tywin is reacting not to Robb's presence, but the presence of that big army burning the shit out of his vassals' lands and peasants and goods, right?  Cuz it doesn't seem like you understand that, at all.  Robb has lots of commanders, who, aside from Edmure, seem to get the big picture - get Tywin away from Kings Landing so Stannis can do his thing.

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

foraging for food slows him down while Tywin is fed at any of his settlements

Not the case.  You have an incredibly bad sense of how easy it is to supply a large army on the move, which is why it rarely happened from the fall of Rome til the Early Modern Era.  Tywin can't just stop in a town and go to the grocery store; it requires massing food stores which might not exist or be in readiness, and Robb can just as easily sack the town collecting it as Tywin can stop there for the night.

 

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

building well protected camps slows him down while Tywin can rest, and possibly even rehorse, at any of his settlements

Again, horses don't grow on trees, there aren't thousands of spare mounts lying around in random towns in the West.  Owning and provisioning and stabling a horse is such an expensive proposition that it requires being given a bunch of land and its tax revenues to do it.  And Robb doesn't need to build super well protected camps; he's noted to be uncompromising about his scouting, and if he's with a force comprised purely of cavalry, the Westerners won't be able to catch him.

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Robb is not just against Tywin's host, but against the many garrisons of the West, who thanks to Ravens can be co-coordinated. They don't need to attack Robb directly, they can simply build road blocks to slow down his progress

And Robb can go around the road, you know?  And again, there aren't "many garrisons" of the West, which is why Robb's armies have such success in doing whatever the fuck they want after Oxcross.  You don't think that those garrisons would be defending castles and mines and herds and lands as Robb is ravaging them?  Of course they would, that is their point.  The fact that they don't is because they don't exist.

[Chancho]

41 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

And Robb can go around the road, you know?  And again, there aren't "many garrisons" of the West, which is why Robb's armies have such success in doing whatever the fuck they want after Oxcross.  You don't think that those garrisons would be defending castles and mines and herds and lands as Robb is ravaging them?  Of course they would, that is their point.  The fact that they don't is because they don't exist.

Go around the road? Only to the South, there is mountains to the north... mountains and castle to the east on the way to the riverlands... There is signifcant garrisons in the westerlands at the Golden Tooth, Lannisport and Casterly Rock as it is mentioned that Robb don't have the power to take them or choses to not get any close to any of this castles. 

I'm sure there is a lot of under guarded and protected places... But there at least 3 there are not the case... so they exist and Robb can't do literally wherever he likes, even tough he is in a good position, until Tywin arrives, then he is limited and have to truly worry about he next moves.

There is also a host being re-gathered, a weak one perhaps but even so, westerlands plans don't need to fight head on, there are others way ... So Robb can be surprised as much as everyone else, his host is not undetectable so is fair to speculate... If he lost the Freys, he doesn't even have a big army...

How is he going east? Tywin is way closer to the border than him, will get there first meaning his army will be on the way in that direction.

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, Chancho said:

Go around the road? Only to the South, there is mountains to the north... mountains and castle to the east on the way to the riverlands... There is signifcant garrisons in the westerlands at the Golden Tooth, Lannisport and Casterly Rock as it is mentioned that Robb don't have the power to take them or choses to not get any close to any of this castles. 

I'm sure there is a lot of under guarded and protected places... But there at least 3 there are not the case... so they exist and Robb can't do literally wherever he likes, even tough he is in a good position, until Tywin arrives, then he is limited and have to truly worry about he next moves.

There is also a host being re-gathered, a weak one perhaps but even so, westerlands plans don't need to fight head on, there are others way ... So Robb can be surprised as much as everyone else, his host is not undetectable so is fair to speculate... If he lost the Freys, he doesn't even have a big army...

How is he going east? Tywin is way closer to the border than him, will get there first meaning his army will be on the way in that direction.

Robb not being able to take the castles has more to do with the walls then the men inside , he has no siege equipment to attack them with. Also you are misjudging just how big the Westerlands , look at a map , it’s 3 days ride from casterly rock to oxcross , that just shows how much open territory there is in that part of the Westerlands and that Robb would have plenty of room to maneuver, don’t forget that Robb only has to stay ahead of Tywin to achieve his goals, Tywin on the other hand has to finish Robb quickly to get back to Kings Landing .

[Chancho]

18 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Robb not being able to take the castles has more to do with the walls then the men inside , he has no siege equipment to attack them with. Also you are misjudging just how big the Westerlands , look at a map , it’s 3 days ride from casterly rock to oxcross , that just shows how much open territory there is in that part of the Westerlands and that Robb would have plenty of room to maneuver, don’t forget that Robb only has to stay ahead of Tywin to achieve his goals, Tywin on the other hand has to finish Robb quickly to get back to Kings Landing .

Not misjudging, the área is bad for running shifting directions, Tywin can spare men and trying blockades at key points if Robb go in circles, he only has to cover east path pretty much (it's the only path important to Robb get back), seriously is on the map you can't run freely, the path is as well delimited by the moutains (hard to improvise without using the pre-determined paths)   as it gets and gets perfect narrow at the road to the east, he might succeed at running sure, but for how long, tywin can spare men here and there just to try breaking movement. Robb escape is possible, but if his goal is heading back to Riverladns, i'm very skeptical at running trought there (Gold Road)...

I can see Robb going South undisputed but that is a gigantic waste of time.  He did told his plans was more than just run away.

[Blackfish Tully]

31 minutes ago, Chancho said:

Not misjudging, the área is bad for running shifting directions, Tywin can spare men and trying blockades at key points if Robb go in circles, he only has to cover east path pretty much (it's the only path important to Robb get back), seriously is on the map you can't run freely, the path is as well delimited by the moutains (hard to improvise without using the pre-determined paths)   as it gets and gets perfect narrow at the road to the east, he might succeed at running sure, but for how long, tywin can spare men here and there just to try breaking movement. Robb escape is possible, but if his goal is heading back to Riverladns, i'm very skeptical at running trought there (Gold Road)...

I can see Robb going South undisputed but that is a gigantic waste of time.  He did told his plans was more than just run away.

Robb has 6000 battlehardened soldiers all horsed with him so if Tywin tries to blockade him he stands the chance to lose a ton more men and you are completely missing the point that Robb is not looking to escape instead he is looking to keep Tywin occupied in the West and is looking to take advantage of the massive amount of room in that area of the Westerland to keep Tywin on the run . Also when Robb decided to leave the Westerlands he will have less trouble then you think , 6000 heavily armored and armed horsemen led by the best scout leader in Westeros should have little problem as long as Tywin’s army is behind them , who is going to have the stones to get between them and freedom . 

[Bernie Mac]

11 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Robb has 6000 battlehardened soldiers all horsed with him 

he actually has not. I was long under this impression thanks to taking the wiki for granted. the 6k is the number, with the Frey cavalry, that he has before the Whispering Wood, battle of the Camps, Oxcross etc.  When Robb is travelling to the Twins he is down to 3,500, including Edmure and his wedding guests. If the Frey took the same ratio of casualties in those battles that the Northern cavalry, as well as subtracting the Freys who remained behind at Riverrun with Martyn then we are looking at around 4,100-4,200, not the 6,000. 

 

19 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

the best scout leader in Westeros 

no one in the series calls him that. you are mixing your own preference for the character with what he actually is. 

and we have had this conversation before, the best scout in the balklans or australia does not become the best scout in the sudan. scouting does not work like that.