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Chancho

Did Edmure save Robb's Life?

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On 5/8/2018 at 9:09 PM, Chancho said:

You just write he wanted to give battle at the gold road, find a defensive position and what not... At Tywin's Land.

So King's Landing might fell, i'm not questioning that...

How is good for Robb to get to fight Tywin where they are, with the men each army has at the time, Tywin can even get some help from all around to liberate the Westlands.

And Sansa might be dead. Didn’t Cersei intend to have Ser Ilyn murder the ladies? 

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6 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

He obviously didn't.

Of course not, but Cersei had him there to kill at the very least herself and Sansa if Stannis won. Since Tywin came and pulled everyone’s fat out of the fire, Sansa lived.

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4 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Of course not, but Cersei had him there to kill at the very least herself and Sansa if Stannis won. Since Tywin came and pulled everyone’s fat out of the fire, Sansa lived.


Think he was just replying to the thread title. 

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8 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Of course not, but Cersei had him there to kill at the very least herself and Sansa if Stannis won. Since Tywin came and pulled everyone’s fat out of the fire, Sansa lived.

Sorry if I misled you, but @Trigger Warning has it right, I was just replying to the OP's question.

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2 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

Sorry if I misled you, but @Trigger Warning has it right, I was just replying to the OP's question.

Thanks for the confirmation. 

So what do you think of my point?

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5 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Thanks for the confirmation. 

So what do you think of my point?

Robb was ignorant of the plan Cersei had in mind with Sansa. He probably thought that if Stannis wins he would liberate her and sent her to him in exchange for fealty and renouncing the crown, not thinking that Cersei would find any interest to take Sansa down with her in the sinking ship. Robb didn't really know Cersei. 

So you are right, if Stannis had won, probably Sansa would've been murdered.

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57 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

why would the enemy castles be blocking their movement ?

Most medieval castles and holdfasts are located along key strategic points. the whole reason why the Golden Tooth is so important is it protects the River Road. Other castles are going to have similar importance. 

57 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

do these castles move ?

no, but ravens do. 

57 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

I'm pretty sure when Robb and his 6K men would be moving through the Westerlands the soldiers in the castles are going to stay in their castles and watch them pass by. 

Sure, when there is no organized Westerland army it it is pointless for the individual garrisons to move. With Tywin and his army back in the West there are valid reasons for them to slow down Robb as there is now a large enough force to defeat him. 

Being able to properly co-ordinate is one of the key advantages a home army has over foreign invaders. 

 

51 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Robb and his men would have no trouble moving around and as long as they stayed in front of Tywin's force they would be fine .

they have to forage for food, they have to sleep, which involves setting up camp and perimeters in a foreign land, they have to deal with being an invading force in a hostile territory were they can not predict what is going to happen.

Fine is a gross exaggeration. The reason why Moat Cailin is so important to the Ironborn is that once the Northern army is back inside it becomes far easier to coordinate and use their numbers correctly. 

Again this really needs to be pointed out but the only reason this is a discussion is because it is Robb. With the same variables in the North, Vale or anywhere else Tywin would be crushed, same with Stannis, the same with Robert. A home army, with a larger cavalry and almost 4x as many troops is always going to be the overall favorite against an invading foreign aggressor at  the same technological starting point (if anything the West is likely to also be better equpped in this situation, yet another advantage). 

51 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Time is on their side so they would only have to fight if they found a place that was to their advantage .

time may well be, but territory and logistics are not. 

51 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Tywin would be the one who would be desperate to give battle and that may force him to make a mistake .

It may well do, but the discussion here is on the odds. The odds were greatly with Tywin. That does not mean Robb could not have won, but that he was simply unlikely to. 

51 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

what little we know of Blackfish seems to indicate that he is a pretty no nonsense guy so i'm pretty sure he would only say something if he believed it .

Well we actually don't know enough about him to say that. but no, the Blackfish's opinion on the matter does not change basic simple military facts. 

51 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Whether the plan would work or not is anybodies guess but he has as much experience in warfare as any man in Westeros . 

As does Tywin.

51 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

the Westerlands are a pretty big place ,

yup, but we are not talking about the entire of the westerlands are we, we are talking about a fraction of their lands. it can't be in the south of the westerlands, or the west as that is the direction Tywin is heading, it can not also be towards the Rock or Lannisport as that risks trapping Robb between two armies. Considering the hills and mountains that stretch along the borders this also limits a lot of the realm of the westerlands as bottleknecking themselves in would prove disastrous. 

they were heading to the Crag when Tywin is on his way, this limits the choice of venue

51 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

i doubt that any of the Westerland lords have been to each part of it or remember every place the have been .

they don't need to. again, because you and others seem to be ignoring what is being said. no one is claiming that the westerland people don't have any blind spots within their own lands but that the Blackfish, without being a telepath, is not going to know which lands they are and are not familiar with. the Blackish is taking a gamble, it is the very definition of a long shot

51 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Blackfish was specifically looking for a good spot for an ambush and once he found that spot he would have spent a lot of time scouting it out searching for the strengths and weaknesses of that spot .

you just claimed that the Westerlands was huge, you have also claimed that time is an issue.  we also know that the original plan was to go West, meet up with the Ironborn and attack Lannisport and at some point a new plan was changed. 

so yeah, considering that he was not a native was also at war and the short time span he had to find such territories his plan seems like a gamble

not that it matters as Robb was bedridden at the Crag. 

51 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

How much time has any of the Western Lords spent in that particular spot checking it's strengths and weakness for an ambush?

how is this relevant? the Blackfish has zero way to determine how much knowledge the 20k Westerland army and any others who join up with them will have on their own lands, unless he is a telepath he is gambling on them having no knowledge on the area, he is also gambling that he has had enough time to actually become an expert on it

common sense that the Westerland people are going to know more about their lands than a Riverlander who has spent the last 15 years living in the Vale. the odds are with the home side on this one

51 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

When is the last time Tywin or Marbrand was at that position?

what does this matter? 

51 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Also if Blackfish is wrong and the ambush does not work then they just keep moving ,

unless they also get trapped. this is why people are pointing out it was an awful plan

though it bares repeating, Robb was injured at the Crag. Edmure seems to have saved Robb's life. 

 

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Well acording the maps, at the westerlands you might really need to follow the road, is truly heavy in mountains, you can't really cut trough like other regions, Robb can for sure find side tracks, but this ones will be narrow and slow, terrible for someone being pursued and wanted.

He is very limited, move wise, one thing was to move with no army around... But in this speculative scenario is not really the case...

He can still find a good spot, but also Tywin may well get a edge with archers and crossbows that can rain on them from distance until Robb gets enough of it too. He can win, but i don't think the confidence they put on scolding Edmure, reflects the Odds of this possible encounter (He has at least 2000 crossbowmen i think!! Probably a significant number of Archers too.).

Edited by Chancho
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Regarding castles the entire point of a castle is to project power, you can raid and harass and then withdraw to safety. They wouldn't be much good if all they did was serve as a thing to hide in while the enemy move throughout your lands at will uncontested. They're defensive structures and staging points, bases of operations. Robb might also struggle to maintain his horses whilst being harassed and trying to lead a chase through difficult terrain. Tywin has all the advantages, all Robb has going for him is this idea that they know a place that can be used to defeat Tywin like it's that simple, which just sounds awfully convenient. 

Though this argument basically comes down to people that believe Robb and people that don't. Robb's banking on getting the Freys back to regain the North and only Edmure can accomplish that, what's lying to Edmure when compared to that. 

Edited by Trigger Warning

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I think that's a good assessment, @Trigger Warning. I won't go so far as to say that Robb's idea of leading Tywin to ground of his choosing was an outright lie, but I think his stated confidence in the plan was probably exaggerated, all part and parcel of browbeating Edmure into salvaging his relationship with the Freys.

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This is what Robb should have done to keep Frey support: Give Jeyne to Edmure for saving him, and then married the Frey girl.

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41 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

This is what Robb should have done to keep Frey support: Give Jeyne to Edmure for saving him, and then married the Frey girl.

 

Same situation if not worse, Edmure's not just going to marry Robb's discarded one night lover from a poor house. He'd have to pass her off to someone much lower on the totem pole. 

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2 hours ago, Ran said:

I think that's a good assessment, @Trigger Warning. I won't go so far as to say that Robb's idea of leading Tywin to ground of his choosing was an outright lie, but I think his stated confidence in the plan was probably exaggerated, all part and parcel of browbeating Edmure into salvaging his relationship with the Freys.

I kind of think he was, he was doing his 'kingly duty', something he neglected at the Crag, and telling a lie to speedily have the Frey's back on side. 

In the same chapter Cat herself is impressed that Robb has manipulated her into forgiving him for marrying Jeyne

"Only then came her belated remembrance. Follies done for love? He has bagged me neat as a hare in a snare. I seem to have already forgiven him. Mixed with her annoyance was a rueful admiration; the scene had been staged with the cunning worthy of a master mummer . . . or a king." 

Robb is growing as a person and this was undeniably the correct course of action for a King to make. The only reason this is controversial to some as they still think of Robb as a hero rather than what he actually is, the Crown/state. Weighing up telling a lie where the consequences are so little (and they truly are, Edmure was in need of a wife and a daughter/granddaughter of his most powerful vassal was not only a good match but potentially a prosperous one for House Tully). 

It should be noted that how Robb dealt with Edmure mirrors Robbs tactics on the battlefield. He ambushes Edmure after having separated him from the Riverland nobles who agreed with him. It is Jaime at the Whispering Wood all over again, lull him into thinking nothing was wrong, separate him from his host and then overwhelm him until he is captured/willing to accept guilt. 

Kings manipulating their subjects for the greater good of the state is both admirable and very, very common in the era's when monarchies still had actual power. 

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12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Most medieval castles and holdfasts are located along key strategic points. the whole reason why the Golden Tooth is so important is it protects the River Road. Other castles are going to have similar importance.

sure they are located along strategic points but there would be nothing they could do about Robb and his 6000 battle hardened soldiers riding through , is a Garrison of a few hundred men going to try and slow them down ,?good luck with that .

 

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

o organized Westerland army it it is pointless for the individual garrisons to move. With Tywin and his army back in the West there are valid reasons for them to slow down Robb as there is now a large enough force to defeat him.
 

 

once again a individual garrison would have no chance against Robb's men so even though Tywin is back it does not make those garrison's want to throw away their lives . As long as Robb stays ahead of Tywin he is in no trouble and if he cannot find a place to fight Tywin he simply leaves the Westerlands and goes back to the Riverlands . He does not have to fight Tywin.

 

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

It may well do, but the discussion here is on the odds. The odds were greatly with Tywin. That does not mean Robb could not have won, but that he was simply unlikely to. 

 

By getting Tywin back to the Westerlands Robb has already won , any victory after that would just be a bonus . I doubt that even Robb or Blackfish had any illusions that they could destroy Tywin's 20K army , they simply hoped to keep them busy and maybe wear them down a little bit ,Tywin had taken huge losses at Oxcross and Battle of the Camps and any more losses would be very hard on his long term prospects in the War . This war could have lasted for many more months or even years and Robb and the Blackfish were playing the long term game .

 

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

.

yup, but we are not talking about the entire of the westerlands are we, we are talking about a fraction of their lands. it can't be in the south of the westerlands, or the west as that is the direction Tywin is heading, it can not also be towards the Rock or Lannisport as that risks trapping Robb between two armies. Considering the hills and mountains that stretch along the borders this also limits a lot of the realm of the westerlands as bottleknecking themselves in would prove disastrous. 

t

Unless they also get trapped. this is why people are pointing out it was an awful plan

 

 

As long as Robb keeps Tywin behind him he can go anywhere in the Westerland he wants , there is no other army in the Westerland the can stop him . he stays in front of Tywin and if he finds a place to turn and fight then that's great if not just keep going and leave the Westerlands, why would they not be able to do that? isn't the Westerlands hundreds of miles across ? that's plenty of room for Robb to maneuver .

It's actually a great plan and depending on what would have happen in Kings Landing it's the only plan that could have helped him . We saw what happened when Edmure stopped Tywin. 

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ss

38 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

...

My god, there is this thing called Lands of Ice and Fire, by martin, there is the Westerlands map there, Robb can't go north without being trapped, no passage after the banefort, guess what mountains, those you love to ignore...

Going by the river road, that lies truly in the heart of the mountains of the área, there is the Strong Golden tooth and Tywin coming... The gold road, same scenario, goes by the heart of the mountains, with deep den right there in the way, so assault the whole thing , or get trapped...

Now South the last option, Lannisport and Casterly Rock, where daven regrouped the Oxcross lot, now Daven can and if Tywin command he will give battle,but of course he can't chooses a good spot because only the Stark side can do this kinda of things, poor Daven... NOW everyone know they are there, they can comunicate, to know where he is going, prepare and such or maybe this is also a stark only hability right... Poor Lannisters...

And if Robb is bedrriden of course he will fly or CHOOSE a good spot on his bed where victory is 100%... Every castle know they are there, the horses are useless to assault the walls and he will be chased, so no time to build siege weapons. Of course He can run at every direction he chooses because his army of winged werewolves is Always ready for any situation.

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Just now, Chancho said:

ss

Now South the last option, Lannisport and Casterly Rock, where daven regrouped the Oxcross lot, now Daven can and if Tywin command he will give battle,but of course he can't chooses a good spot because only the Stark side can do this kinda of things, poor Daven... NOW everyone know they are there, they can comunicate, to know where he is going, prepare and such or maybe this is also a stark only hability right... Poor Lannisters...

 

the Westerlands are a couple of hundred miles across and a couple of several hundred  miles from top to bottom , you act like it's a small place were there is no room to move . Tywin will have to move carefully to avoid any kind of ambush and Tywin has to chase Robb once he gets in the Westerlands to force him into a battle or split his men up which would play right into Robb's hands . Blackfish is no fool , he knows what he's doing , why else stay in the Westerlands if there is no way out ?

Daven is going to take a couple of thousand untrained , shell shocked troops who got their ass handed to them by Robb and try to stop Robb's 6000  battle hardened soldiers , yea that will work out pretty well for them . Daven is no fool . 

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Just now, Chancho said:

Add google mountains, to learn what they are.

i know what roads are and i know that castles cannot move and block an armies path and i know that if Tywin is chasing Robb then he must be behind him and Robb can simply ride out of the Westerlands.

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12 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

the Westerlands are a couple of hundred miles across and a couple of several hundred  miles from top to bottom , you act like it's a small place were there is no room to move . Tywin will have to move carefully to avoid any kind of ambush and Tywin has to chase Robb once he gets in the Westerlands to force him into a battle or split his men up which would play right into Robb's hands . Blackfish is no fool , he knows what he's doing , why else stay in the Westerlands if there is no way out ?

Daven is going to take a couple of thousand untrained , shell shocked troops who got their ass handed to them by Robb and try to stop Robb's 6000  battle hardened soldiers , yea that will work out pretty well for them . Daven is no fool . 

I'm not the one who draw the map, the área besides the small coast extension is only mountains with two road passing trough the mountains, you can't pass na army everywhere, i'm eager to see the hiking horses of the north.

What direction is he riding? This castles are specfic located trough the road, just like the TWINS! I guess didn't even need Walder Frey bridge, he can just open a path, Moses Style.

 

Edited by Chancho
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