Daenerys, Quaithe, and Asshai

[LiveFirstDieLater]

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

You are a queen, her bear said. In Westeros.

“It is such a long way,” she complained. “I was tired, Jorah. I was weary of war. I wanted to rest, to laugh, to plant trees and see them grow. I am only a young girl.”

No. You are the blood of the dragon. The whispering was growing fainter, as if Ser Jorah were falling farther behind. Dragons plant no trees. Remember that. Remember who you are, what you were made to be. Remember your words.

Winter is coming...

Dany wanted to plant trees but Dragons don’t plant trees...

“remember who you are” is literal... as in, you’ve been lied to and need to remember your childhood... the lemon tree, the house with the red door, Westeros, Home!

the whispers falling farther behind, 

The red door was so far ahead of her, and she could feel the icy breath behind, sweeping up on her. If it caught her she would die a death that was more than death, howling forever alone in the darkness. She began to run.

Dragons don’t howl, wolves do... when the white winds blow and they are alone.

R+L= J&D

Bran see’s dragons waking “across the narrow sea”, not Specifically in Asshai or any of the other listed places which are all across he narrow sea:

He lifted his eyes and saw clear across the narrow sea, to the Free Cities and the green Dothraki sea and beyond, to Vaes Dothrak under its mountain, to the fabled lands of the Jade Sea, to Asshai by the Shadow, where dragons stirred beneath the sunrise.

He is almost definitely seeing  Dany’s Eggs ready to hatch, especially since “beneath the sunrise” and the bleeding star, and dawn, all share a lot in common. It begs puns about being born beneath a bloody Dawn, bleeding Dayne, and/or maybe even a bleeding stark?

The salt from the blood and tears, and the smoke from the tower long torn down.

"And now it begins," said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale as milkglass, alive with light.

"No," Ned said with sadness in his voice. "Now it ends." As they came together in a rush of steel and shadow, he could hear Lyanna screaming. "Eddard!" she called. A storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky, as blue as the eyes of death.

Also, don’t be fooled by the false dicotomy of science and magic... of the world of Planetos has magic, then that magic is a part of the science of the world... since science is just an understanding of how the world works, magic is simply that which isn’t understood.

The Maesters may have killed the dragons and banished the Others because they could not control them, or understand how they worked... but that doesn’t mean science and magic opposites, just that Maesters are men with their own set of goals. 

George appears to love setting up false dichotomies, fire and ice, love and duty, magic and science... the list goes on

[Megorova]

2 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

R+L= J&D

No, it's not. GRRM said, that difference in age between Jon and Dany is 8 or 9 months. Which means, that they are not twins. And there was not enough time for Lyanna to become pregnant twice. It takes approximately 75 days to travel from Starfall to King's Landing, and a few weeks lesser from Tower of Joy to King's Landing. Which means, that if Dany was born 9 months after Rhaella went to Dragonstone (and GRRM did said so, about 9 months), then Dany can't be Lyanna's child. By the time Dany was conceived, Rhaegar was already away from Tower of Joy, furthermore probably by that time he was already dead, which means, that Dany is not Rhaegar's and Lyanna's child.

 

[300 H&H Magnum]

On 5/10/2018 at 6:03 PM, Bowen Marsh said:

Quaithe is very keen on protecting Daenerys and her dragons.  She also beckons the young Targaryen heroine to visit Asshai.  For truth, she claims.  Quaithe also said "Dragons are fire made flesh and fire is POWER!"  Whosoever can control dragons will have great power.  

Quaithe has a lot of knowledge.  Asshai is similar to Oldtown because it is a center for learning.  You could say they are on opposite ends when it comes to curriculum.  Magic in Asshai, science in Oldtown.  We already saw the philosophical clash between magic and science.  Mellisandre and Cressen.  I do not think this will be the only clash between these two philosophies.  The maesters have had the upper hand for many centuries with the spellbinders and the Children of the Forest having kept a fairly low profile.  At least in the west and most of the east.  I can see how this might change when the long night comes and science has no explanation for the climate change. 

• Bloodraven kept himself hidden for years.  Why did he choose to keep his existence secret from Aemon?  A mistrust of the maesters?
• What arcane knowledge might be hidden in Asshai?  
• There are no children and no animals in Asshai.  The poison in the air is more harmful to them in comparison to the adults.  That sounds suspicious to me.  It will take a lot more to poison a large animal like an ox compared to an average human.  Blood sacrifices to the gods?  
• The mask.  Fashion trend or protection device?  
• Asshai covers more area than KL, Oldtown, and Volantis combined.  We must assume that there once was a large population long ago.  Human populations grow.  Not in this place.  It reduced itself.  Too many blood sacrifices?  Natural disaster, like the Doom?
• Ghost Grass.  All that magic and they can't stop this weed.  

 

 

Some fans propose that Quaithe is a Targaryen herself.  Shiera Seastar, one of the great bastards.  BR's one time love interest and a reputed practitioner of the magic arts.  

As to what is hidden in Asshai, this:

And whosoever shall be found

Without the soul for getting down

Must stand and face the Hounds of Hell

And rot inside a corpse's shell

The foulest stench is in the air

The funk of forty thousand years

And grizzly ghouls from every tomb

Are closing in to seal your doom.

And though you fight to stay alive

Your body starts to shiver

For no mere mortal can resist

The evil of the Thriller

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA . . .

 

 

Anybody can learn science.  Magic is not the same.   Yes, a group like the maesters made up mostly of magically untalented people will resent something they cannot use.  It is a power struggle more than anything.  

[Jon Fossoway]

On 5/10/2018 at 7:23 PM, Megorova said:

There's a story told to Dany by one of her Dothraki maids. According to that story, long time ago, there was second moon in the sky. It got scalded by the sun, and cracked like an egg. Out of that moon appeared first dragons. That second moon was above Asshai.

I think, that this second moon is a giant space ship. First dragons of Planetos were genetically engineered animals, transported by that ship. Then, while the ship was passing near Planetos, some sort of emergency situation happened in there, and the ship was critically damaged. The dragons were able to escape, and went to the planet's surface. Aliens from that ship, genetically modified Valyrians, and taught them magic, and how to control dragons. Shadow near Asshai is either that space ship itself, if it is visible, or if it's in a stealth-mode, then the Shadow is indeed a shadow, casted by that ship. The Ghost grass is result of radiation, emanating from the ship. Unnatural seasons of Planetos, is result of terraforming device, working on that ship. The Others are robots from that ship. Some sort of cold/ice-based technology. Nearly all magic on Planetos, including method, with which are made living masks of Faceless Men, is a technology from that ship. People in Asshai live underground, to protect themselves from radiation. Children and animals are not allowed to live there, for the same reason - radiation is more harmful for them, than for adults.

Quaithe's cryptic message to Dany, that to touch the light, she needs to pass under the shadow, means that she needs to come to Asshai, to the Shadow-ship, and to touch the light means to touch some sort of control pannel, thru which Dany will be able to take over control of the ship, and stop that terraforming device and the Others.

Could be, that the ship is the Ark, from GRRM's other series Tuf Voyaging.

 

Noice. So humans were aliens to Planetos, that thrived, formed a great empire, made it explode and eventually killed off natives (Deep Ones, children of the forest, giants, Others)? Or valyrians engineered humans?

[Megorova]

47 minutes ago, Jon Fossoway said:

Nice. So humans were aliens to Planetos, that thrived, formed a great empire, made it explode and eventually killed off natives (Deep Ones, children of the forest, giants, Others)? Or valyrians engineered humans?

No, people of Planetos most likely don't have any alien blood. Maybe aside of Valyrians, that were genetically enhanced, to be able to bond with dragons. Because even though Ark-ship was huge, Tuf was traveling on it mostly alone, not including his private zoo, with various monsters, and a genetical engineering lab, in which he made new monsters/animals.

Tuf was humanoid, he looked a bit like Varys, and had similar personality.

Though by the time, when that ship cracked above Asshai, humans already lived on Planetos.

But those oily black stones, in various locations on Planetos, look like material from Ark. On the Ark there were several ancient ships, made from black oily material. So probably Tuf (or his robots) has build foundation of Hightower, Seastone Chair, buildings in Asshai, Five Forts of Yi Ti, etc.

Could be that Ark arrived to Planetos, some time prior or during reign of Bloodstone Emperor.

"The Bloodstone Emperor rejected the traditional gods of Yi Ti and instead encouraged the worship of a black stone said to have fallen from the sky. This emperor is said to have founded the Church of Starry Wisdom and possibly caused the start of the Long Night.^[8]"

Seems that Bloodstone Emperor was worshiping some object, that fell or flew out of the Ark. First Long Night happened shortly after that object landed on surface of Planetos. So could be, that it was one of smaller ships, that was on Ark, and it brought the Others on the planet, and they caused the dead to raise, and changed planet's climate.

Or not. Maybe GRRM did mixed his sci-fi books with his fantasy books, or maybe he didn't.

[Darth Sidious]

I seem to recall the author saying he's not taking Daenerys to Asshai.  There's probably nothing of worth there.  Quaithe is just another suitor hoping to reach out to Daenerys and use her power for her own interests.  Could be there are petrified dragon eggs in Asshai and Quaithe wants them hatched.  Fire is power and isn't that what everyone wants.  

Quaithe being Shiera Seastar makes for a nice parallel with Brynden Rivers on the other side.  Why Brynden didn't contact Maester Aemon does make me suspect his motives.  Could be he thought the watch would chop him up for fire wood.

 

[Shi Qiang]

On 5/10/2018 at 6:03 PM, Bowen Marsh said:

Quaithe is very keen on protecting Daenerys and her dragons.  She also beckons the young Targaryen heroine to visit Asshai.  For truth, she claims.  Quaithe also said "Dragons are fire made flesh and fire is POWER!"  Whosoever can control dragons will have great power.  

Quaithe has a lot of knowledge.  Asshai is similar to Oldtown because it is a center for learning.  You could say they are on opposite ends when it comes to curriculum.  Magic in Asshai, science in Oldtown.  We already saw the philosophical clash between magic and science.  Mellisandre and Cressen.  I do not think this will be the only clash between these two philosophies.  The maesters have had the upper hand for many centuries with the spellbinders and the Children of the Forest having kept a fairly low profile.  At least in the west and most of the east.  I can see how this might change when the long night comes and science has no explanation for the climate change. 

• Bloodraven kept himself hidden for years.  Why did he choose to keep his existence secret from Aemon?  A mistrust of the maesters?
• What arcane knowledge might be hidden in Asshai?  
• There are no children and no animals in Asshai.  The poison in the air is more harmful to them in comparison to the adults.  That sounds suspicious to me.  It will take a lot more to poison a large animal like an ox compared to an average human.  Blood sacrifices to the gods?  
• The mask.  Fashion trend or protection device?  
• Asshai covers more area than KL, Oldtown, and Volantis combined.  We must assume that there once was a large population long ago.  Human populations grow.  Not in this place.  It reduced itself.  Too many blood sacrifices?  Natural disaster, like the Doom?
• Ghost Grass.  All that magic and they can't stop this weed.  

 

 

Ghost Grass make fine salad.  Seriously, maybe they have no way to stop it.  Invasive weeds can be hard to control.  

Maester Aemon is pretty liberal and open-minded for a man in his line of work but Bloodraven is waaaay out there.  I can almost understand why Bloodraven would choose to hide his existence from a maester.  I mean, how well did he know Aemon?  Or maybe he did know Aemon very well and reasoned the man could not be trusted.  This is from BR's point of view.  Many believe Bloodraven works for the Others and he's just screwing with Bran.  

Asshai is what will happen to King's Landing, I think.  I don't mean the poisoned environment but the loss in population and the setback.  The gods want to humble the humans, though they are not supposed to play a role.  

[LiveFirstDieLater]

On 5/11/2018 at 6:47 PM, Megorova said:

No, it's not. GRRM said, that difference in age between Jon and Dany is 8 or 9 months. Which means, that they are not twins. And there was not enough time for Lyanna to become pregnant twice.

There was, as proved by Rhaegar’s wife Elia having a boy and a girl in approximately the same amount of time.

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It takes approximately 75 days to travel from Starfall to King's Landing, and a few weeks lesser from Tower of Joy to King's Landing. Which means, that if Dany was born 9 months after Rhaella went to Dragonstone (and GRRM did said so, about 9 months), then Dany can't be Lyanna's child. By the time Dany was conceived, Rhaegar was already away from Tower of Joy, furthermore probably by that time he was already dead, which means, that Dany is not Rhaegar's and Lyanna's child.

No... while I won’t break out a ruler and stopwatch, there is plenty of room in the timeline for two children, I could break it down for you if you want, I did a timeline to show it once, I’d just have to find it.

Also worth nothing the quote from George was “closer to 8 or 9 months than a year”, hardly specific.

But more importantly, what you are saying doesn’t make sense... if Jon and dany are born 9 months apart, then it’s almost impossible for Dany to be Rhaella’s as Rhaegar has time to travel to kings landing and raise an army before leaving for the trident. And Rhaella died in childbirth about nine months after Rhaegar was already dead... since they fled for dragonstone after the battle of the trident.

And that would also leave no time for Ned to raise the siege of storms end before finding Lyanna dying in childbirth at the tower of joy.

It is far more plausible that Lyanna first became pregnant at Harrenhall, explaining her disappearance, and the odd rob-Jon age controversy, then again immediately afterwards, making Jon and Danys births about nine months apart, or thereabouts, Dany being slightly premature would fit into a complicated preganacy resulting in Lyanna’s death.

[Megorova]

4 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

There was, as proved by Rhaegar’s wife Elia having a boy and a girl in approximately the same amount of time.

Not the same. Between conceivement of Elis'a first child and birth of her second child passed at least 24 months. Aegon was conceived at least 6 months after Rhaenys' birth, this is known for sure. While Robert's Rebellion lasted less than 12 months. It started shortly after Lyanna's kidnapping, and ended shortly after the Sack of King's Landing. By that time Ned arrived to the Tower of Joy, where Lyanna was giving birth to her child, and then died. 24 months is not even close to less than 12.

4 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

It is far more plausible that Lyanna first became pregnant at Harrenhall, explaining her disappearance

This is totally not plausible. No offence, but you're just making stuff up, that would fit into your theory, that Dany is a Stark

4 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

But more importantly, what you are saying doesn’t make sense... if Jon and dany are born 9 months apart, then it’s almost impossible for Dany to be Rhaella’s as Rhaegar has time to travel to kings landing and raise an army before leaving for the trident.

Aerys' people were gathering troops even before Rhaegar's return. So he went to Trident shortly after arriving to King's Landing.

4 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

And Rhaella died in childbirth about nine months after Rhaegar was already dead... since they fled for dragonstone after the battle of the trident.

Rhaegar went to Trident, and was killed there. Already after Rhaegar's death, Aerys burned his last Hand, and on the night after that was conceived Rhaella's child. On the next morning she departed to Dragonstone. It takes approximately 10 days to travel from Trident to KL. Ned's troops arrived to KL on the same day as Tywin's. So the Sack of King's Landing happened about two weeks or so after Rhaegar's death.

4 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

And that would also leave no time for Ned to raise the siege of storms end before finding Lyanna dying in childbirth at the tower of joy.

The troops that were seiging Storm's End, surrendered to Ned immediately upon his arrival. There was no battles there. And then Ned went to Tower of Joy. Either he found out about Lyanna's location, from someone, who at that time was near Storm's End, or he got news from some other source, while he was there. So he went to Dorne, not that long after the Sack of KL.

It takes about 10 days to get from KL to Storm's End (KL is located approximately in the middle between Trident and Storm's End). And about 28 days to get from Storm's End to Tower of Joy, if they were traveling on horses thru Dornish mountains. Though if Ned took a ship from Storm's End, and from there traveled to location of TofJ, then it would have taken them a bit less than two weeks to get there. I think, that Ned traveled by sea-route, first of all because it's faster, and also it would explain how he later transported Lyanna's body, and newborn Jon with his wetnurse, and they stayed unnoticed by anyone. So Jon was born about one month after Rhaegar's death (10 days from Trident to KL, 10 days from KL to Storm's End, 9 days by ship + 2 days (or lesser) on horseback from Storm's End to TofJ = 31 day). Which makes Jon 8 months older than Dany.

4 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

and the odd rob-Jon age controversy

Jon is about two months or so older than Robb.

 

I think, that after Rhaegar and Lyanna eloped, they went to Starfall. Then after Lyanna turned 16 years old, they got married on 24 December of 282. And Jon was conceived on Christman Eve, on night between December 24 and 25. Rhaegar and Lyanna were married by maester Marwyn. When Lyanna was giving birth to Jon, maester Marwyn was with her at the Tower of Joy. If my theory is correct, then we will find about this in TWOW.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Not the same. Between conceivement of Elis'a first child and birth of her second child passed at least 24 months.

 

Rhaegar and Elia were married in 280 AC.

For the sake of argument, let’s say it was the very first day of the year.

Aegon was born at the end of 281 or the start of 282, right around the new year.

So at the most we are talking 2 years. Rationally less...

The Tourney of Harenhall was in 281, the year of the false spring, and Roberts Rebelion didn’t end until 283... plus the extra time for Ned to get to the Tower of Joy.

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Aegon was conceived at least 6 months after Rhaenys' birth, this is known for sure.

It could have been almost exactly 6 months, but there simply isn’t time for more than that in he timeline, see above.

Two nine month pregnancies and six months bed rest in two years. And let’s not forget that makes Elia ready to pop when Rhaegar crowned Lyanna.

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While Robert's Rebellion lasted less than 12 months.

It lasted close to a year, but that starts with Arryn’s refusal and ends with the sack of King’s Landing...

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It started shortly after Lyanna's kidnapping, and ended shortly after the Sack of King's Landing.

Unclear how shortly, the Starks need to make multiple trips south, and get killed... 

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By that time Ned arrived to the Tower of Joy, where Lyanna was giving birth to her child, and then died. 24 months is not even close to less than 12.

But you are not including the time from Harrenhall (before Aegon was even born), the “kidnaping”, Brandon yelling a lot, Stark “trial”, and the Heirs Ned and Robert making off from the Vale. Nor are you including any time after the sack of Kong’s Landing, like lifting the siege of Stormsend.

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This is totally not plausible.

I mean your timeline isn’t right, but I could break it down further if you want... I’ll try and post the timeline here in a bit.

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No offence, but you're just making stuff up, that would fit into your theory, that Dany is a Stark

Not my theory... and actually the reverse... I didn’t think Dany was a Stark until after realizing the gaping holes in the currently accepted timeline.

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Aerys' people were gathering troops even before Rhaegar's return.

Maybe, but the text still says Rhaegar raised an army, either way, it wasn’t zero time.

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So he went to Trident shortly after arriving to King's Landing.

Speculation based on trying to make your assumptions correct.

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Rhaegar went to Trident, and was killed there. Already after Rhaegar's death, Aerys burned his last Hand, and on the night after that was conceived Rhaella's child. On the next morning she departed to Dragonstone. It takes approximately 10 days to travel from Trident to KL. Ned's troops arrived to KL on the same day as Tywin's. So the Sack of King's Landing happened about two weeks or so after Rhaegar's death.

You are making these timeframes up... but it still doesn’t matter, even if Rhaegar just tagged in at Kings Landing and left the same day and died the same day, Jon would still be significantly older than 9 months more than Dany. Rhaegar had to travel to KL and Ned had to travel to the Tower of joy via Storms End.

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The troops that were seiging Storm's End, surrendered to Ned immediately upon his arrival. There was no battles there. And then Ned went to Tower of Joy.

You are the one counting days, not me, still it has to be greater than zero and way more than it takes to get from the Trident to King’s Landing.

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Either he found out about Lyanna's location, from someone, who at that time was near Storm's End, or he got news from some other source, while he was there. So he went to Dorne, not that long after the Sack of KL.

Ok, even if he had a gps it doesn’t work...

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It takes about 10 days to get from KL to Storm's End (KL is located approximately in the middle between Trident and Storm's End). And about 28 days to get from Storm's End to Tower of Joy, if they were traveling on horses thru Dornish mountains.

Not interested in counting days, let’s stick to years, maybe months at worst. Put down the ruler...

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Though if Ned took a ship from Storm's End, and from there traveled to location of TofJ, then it would have taken them a bit less than two weeks to get there. I think, that Ned traveled by sea-route, first of all because it's faster, and also it would explain how he later transported Lyanna's body, and newborn Jon with his wetnurse, and they stayed unnoticed by anyone. So Jon was born about one month after Rhaegar's death (10 days from Trident to KL, 10 days from KL to Storm's End, 9 days by ship + 2 days (or lesser) on horseback from Storm's End to TofJ = 31 day). Which makes Jon 8 months older than Dany.

I’m not convinced at all by the made up travel times... 

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Jon is about two months or so older than Robb.

I agree he is older...

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I think, that after Rhaegar and Lyanna eloped, they went to Starfall. Then after Lyanna turned 16 years old, they got married on 24 December of 282. And Jon was conceived on Christman Eve, on night between December 24 and 25. Rhaegar and Lyanna were married by maester Marwyn. When Lyanna was giving birth to Jon, maester Marwyn was with her at the Tower of Joy. If my theory is correct, then we will find about this in TWOW.

I have no idea why you are suggesting Christmas or the month of December exist in Planetos... but timeline aside we still have the biggest problem... if Lyanna has not yet given birth, the King’s Guard shouldn’t have been there... they do not run THEN or NOW... because there was already a male child to defend... if Lyanna was pregnant still there would be no way for them to know if the child would be a girl.

[Megorova]

14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Rhaegar and Elia were married in 280 AC.

For the sake of argument, let’s say it was the very first day of the year.

Aegon was born at the end of 281 or the start of 282, right around the new year.

So at the most we are talking 2 years. Rationally less...

No, definitely not less than 24 months. 24 months is a minimum.

They married in the beginning of 280, in King's Landing. Shortly after that, they moved to Dragonstone. Then Elia gave birth to Rhaenys, still in 280. For 6 months after that, she was bedridden, at Dragonstone. Then after that 6 months passed, their family went to KL, to introduce Rhaenys to royal court, and her grandparents. While they were staying there, they conceived Aegon, on the night when comet was seen above KL. Then Elia gave birth to Aegon near New Year's Eve, either in December or January.

I know that GRRM intentionally isn't using any names for months, which doesn't mean that we can't use them, to figure out more specific timeframe of events.

9 months of first pregnancy + 6 months pause + 9 months of second pregnancy = 24 months, and this is only if they went to KL, immediately after Elia felt a bit better. Could be that after those 6 months, after her bed-rest ended, they waited a few more months, while she was regaining her health a bit more, and only then they went to KL.

So 24 months is a bare minimum. Thus the timeframe is 24 months, or MORE, not less.

And if we'll use 12 months of real world, then we can calculate even more specific timeframe for those events.

Pregnancy last 280 days, or 40 weeks (more than 9 months).

If the wedding was on 1 January of 280, then Rhaenys was born on 7 October 280. Aegon was conceived 6 months later, on 7 April 281, and born on 14 January 282. That's if we take as a date of wedding, the very first day of that year. Now let's calculate the opposite possibility - if Rhaenys was born on 31 December 280. Then the wedding was held on 26 March 280. Then Aegon was conceived on July 1 of 281, and born on 7 April 282 <- though we know, that he was born close to New Year, not months after. Which means, that the wedding was held earlier than late March of 280.

Actually Aegon's birthday being 14 January makes sense, because that date is Orthodox New Year. So this timeframe looks to be the most viable - 1 January 280 - wedding, 7 October - Rhaenys' birthday, 14 January 282 - Aegon's birth.

 

Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna a bit less than a year after Tournament at Harrenhall. The Rebellion started not long after Lyanna's kidnapping, and in 282, there wasn't many battles, so Lyanna's kidnapping happened just a few months prior New Year. If we'll use our calendar, then she was kidnapped sometime in September-November.

I made calculations based on the length of The Wall - 300 miles, I measured distances between major locations of Rebellion (such as KL, Trident, Harrenhall, Starfall, Tower of Joy, Storm's End, The Vale, Riverrun), also I used this source for speed of horses https://www.cartographersguild.com/showthread.php?t=19730

First I calculated distances and travel time, and then applied this info to known timeframe of events, such as Lyanna's kidnapping happening in later part of a year, Battle of the Bells first battle of 283, Dany's birth approximately 9 months after the Sack of KL, age difference between Jon and Dany 8-9 month <- this is what GRRM said! - using all that information, I made a fairly accurate timeframe, and nothing in this timeframe goes against any of known information, so it's highly likely, that my calculations are correct.

14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

And let’s not forget that makes Elia ready to pop when Rhaegar crowned Lyanna. 

Lyanna was kidnapped in late September of 282 <- that's based on calculations that I made, calculations of distances and travel time, and timeframe between major events of Rebellion, and prior it. 

The kidnapping happened less than a year after Tournament, but still close to the end of the year.

So Tournament probably happened in October of 281. Thus if Aegon was born on 14 January of 282, then Elia was about 6 or so months pregnant during Tournament.

14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

It lasted close to a year, but that starts with Arryn’s refusal and ends with the sack of King’s Landing...

It doesn't take much time to send a raven from The Eyrie to KL with that refusal, less than a day.

14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

But you are not including the time from Harrenhall (before Aegon was even born), the “kidnaping”, Brandon yelling a lot, Stark “trial”, and the Heirs Ned and Robert making off from the Vale. Nor are you including any time after the sack of Kong’s Landing, like lifting the siege of Stormsend.

Actually I did included all of that.

Kidnapping happened in late September, and the trial in the middle of October. That's because after Lyanna was kidnapped, Brandon had to travel from Harrenhal to KL, and Rickard traveled from Riverrun to KL.

14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I mean your timeline isn’t right, but I could break it down further if you want... I’ll try and post the timeline here in a bit.

Yes, it will be better if we're both just write here our timelines. I'll post mine a bit later, or maybe tomorrow.

14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I have no idea why you are suggesting Christmas or the month of December exist in Planetos...

There are months in Planetos, and their length is based on moon cycles, same as in real world.

14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

but timeline aside we still have the biggest problem... if Lyanna has not yet given birth, the King’s Guard shouldn’t have been there... they do not run THEN or NOW... because there was already a male child to defend... if Lyanna was pregnant still there would be no way for them to know if the child would be a girl.

They stayed with Lyanna, because that's what Rhaegar ordered them to do - to protect her and his unborn baby. It didn't mattered what was the baby's gender. King Aerys was dead, Crown Prince Rhaegar was dead, his two children from first marriage were dead, which makes Lyanna's child to be Rhaegar's sole heir, and thus legitimate ruler of 7K, even if it's a girl.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

3 hours ago, Megorova said:

No, definitely not less than 24 months. 24 months is a minimum.

There are only 12 months in a year if we are doing a Greco-Roman calendar... of course we are assuming years and moon cylcles take the same number of days as on Earth, a huge assumption.

But still, 24 months is all the time there is in 2 years, so it’s the maximum not the minimum... Rhaegar conceived and Elia gave birth to two children in a timeframe of maximum two years...

Quote

They married in the beginning of 280, in King's Landing. Shortly after that, they moved to Dragonstone. Then Elia gave birth to Rhaenys, still in 280. For 6 months after that, she was bedridden, at Dragonstone. Then after that 6 months passed, their family went to KL, to introduce Rhaenys to royal court, and her grandparents. While they were staying there, they conceived Aegon, on the night when comet was seen above KL. Then Elia gave birth to Aegon near New Year's Eve, either in December or January.

I know that GRRM intentionally isn't using any names for months, which doesn't mean that we can't use them, to figure out more specific timeframe of events.

Except that it is a huge assumption to think years/months/days are the same without a calendar to reference... 

Quote

9 months of first pregnancy + 6 months pause + 9 months of second pregnancy = 24 months, and this is only if they went to KL, immediately after Elia felt a bit better. Could be that after those 6 months, after her bed-rest ended, they waited a few more months, while she was regaining her health a bit more, and only then they went to KL.

So 24 months is a bare minimum. Thus the timeframe is 24 months, or MORE, not less.

There are only 12 months in a year and 24 months in two... so no... 24 months maximum.

Quote

And if we'll use 12 months of real world, then we can calculate even more specific timeframe for those events.

Pregnancy last 280 days, or 40 weeks (more than 9 months).

If the wedding was on 1 January of 280, then Rhaenys was born on 7 October 280. Aegon was conceived 6 months later, on 7 April 281, and born on 14 January 282. That's if we take as a date of wedding, the very first day of that year. Now let's calculate the opposite possibility - if Rhaenys was born on 31 December 280. Then the wedding was held on 26 March 280. Then Aegon was conceived on July 1 of 281, and born on 7 April 282 <- though we know, that he was born close to New Year, not months after. Which means, that the wedding was held earlier than late March of 280.

Actually Aegon's birthday being 14 January makes sense, because that date is Orthodox New Year. So this timeframe looks to be the most viable - 1 January 280 - wedding, 7 October - Rhaenys' birthday, 14 January 282 - Aegon's birth.

No we can’t... put down the ruler and stopwatch...

Quote

Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna a bit less than a year after Tournament at Harrenhall. The Rebellion started not long after Lyanna's kidnapping, and in 282, there wasn't many battles, so Lyanna's kidnapping happened just a few months prior New Year. If we'll use our calendar, then she was kidnapped sometime in September-November.

The false spring lasted less than two months (turns)... The tourney at harrenhall was during the false spring... and Rhaegar was already on his way to Lyanna by the new year... so no, she was kidnapped about 2-3 months after harrenhall, at most, or just when a pregnancy would be hard to hide.

Also, Aegon was born before Rhaegar left, (if Dany’s vision in the HoTU is what George says it was), and so in 281. Again, Elia was married and had two children in two years, 280-281.

from TWoIaF:

And well it might, for with that simple garland of pale blue roses, Rhaegar Targaryen had begun the dance that would rip the Seven Kingdoms apart, bring about his own death and thousands more, and put a welcome new king upon the Iron Throne.

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.

As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

Quote

I made calculations based on the length of The Wall - 300 miles, I measured distances between major locations of Rebellion (such as KL, Trident, Harrenhall, Starfall, Tower of Joy, Storm's End, The Vale, Riverrun), also I used this source for speed of horses https://www.cartographersguild.com/showthread.php?t=19730

First I calculated distances and travel time, and then applied this info to known timeframe of events, such as Lyanna's kidnapping happening in later part of a year, Battle of the Bells first battle of 283, Dany's birth approximately 9 months after the Sack of KL, age difference between Jon and Dany 8-9 month <- this is what GRRM said! - using all that information, I made a fairly accurate timeframe, and nothing in this timeframe goes against any of known information, so it's highly likely, that my calculations are correct.

Lyanna was kidnapped in late September of 282 <- that's based on calculations that I made, calculations of distances and travel time, and timeframe between major events of Rebellion, and prior it. 

Wrong, see above...

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The kidnapping happened less than a year after Tournament, but still close to the end of the year.

Nope...

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So Tournament probably happened in October of 281. Thus if Aegon was born on 14 January of 282, then Elia was about 6 or so months pregnant during Tournament.

It doesn't take much time to send a raven from The Eyrie to KL with that refusal, less than a day.

Actually I did included all of that.

Kidnapping happened in late September, and the trial in the middle of October. That's because after Lyanna was kidnapped, Brandon had to travel from Harrenhal to KL, and Rickard traveled from Riverrun to KL.

Yes, it will be better if we're both just write here our timelines. I'll post mine a bit later, or maybe tomorrow.

There are months in Planetos, and their length is based on moon cycles, same as in real world.

But we have no way to know the length of a month or a year on Planetos... a moon’s turn on Earth is actually less than a month.

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They stayed with Lyanna, because that's what Rhaegar ordered them to do - to protect her and his unborn baby. It didn't mattered what was the baby's gender. King Aerys was dead, Crown Prince Rhaegar was dead, his two children from first marriage were dead, which makes Lyanna's child to be Rhaegar's sole heir, and thus legitimate ruler of 7K, even if it's a girl.

After the sack of Kings Landing Viserys would be heir if Rhaegar and Lyanna had a girl, so no again this is innacurate.

It has been made very clear a son (viserys) comes before a daughter or a grand daughter...

The only reason for the King’s guard to remain at the Tower of Joy after the Sack of King’s landing is if a boy had already been born.

[Megorova]

You're totally misinterpreted meaning, of what is written here:

22 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

"on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands."

The meaning of that, is that shortly after birth of Aegon, and beginning of year 282, Rhaegar went on a journey with his friends. Not to Riverlands, not after Lyanna, not yet. First he went somewhere else. And he went after Lyanna eventually, many months after he departed with his friends, to unknown location or locations.

22 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

so no, she was kidnapped about 2-3 months after harrenhall, at most, or just when a pregnancy would be hard to hide. 

Lyanna wasn't impregnated during Tournament at Harrenhall, or even shortly after that. Between Tournament and her kidnapping nearly a year passed.

Lyanna wasn't pregnant twice. She gave birth to only one Rhaegar's child - Jon Snow, shortly after the Sack of King's Landing, a month or so after it. Dany is daughter of King Aerys and Queen Rhaella. She's not some secret child. And she's not Lyanna's or Rhaegar's daughter. Dany was conceived shortly prior the Sack of King's Landing, by that time Rhaegar was already dead, while Lyanna was heavily pregnant, probably already on 8th month of her pregnancy, her first and sole pregnancy, after the end of which she gave birth to her sole child - Jon.

I see that there's no point in debating with you about time frames, or posting here my calculations, because you are dead set on a theory, that Lyanna was pregnant two times.

[The Commentator]

On 5/11/2018 at 2:56 PM, Megorova said:

It wasn't necessary for him to die. Because him dying for real, and Dany just thinking, that he is dead, would have had the same results.

He is alive, but she didn't knew it, still doesn't know it. She did what she did, while thinking, that her child is dead. For result of her actions, it doesn't matter, that actually he was alive all that time, while she thought that he is dead.

I think, that being Mhysa, mother to all those slaves, or like Dany thought about herself - rabbit queen with floppy ears, is a mistake, straying from her real path.

In my opinion this is the same things:

1.1. "Ten thousand slaves lifted bloodstained hands as she raced by on her silver, riding like the wind.“Mother!”  they cried. “Mother, mother!”  They were reaching for her, touching her, tugging at her cloak, the hem of her skirt, her foot, her leg, her breast. They wanted her, needed her, the fire, the life, and Dany gasped and opened her arms to give herself to them . . . "

2.1. "The Undying were all around her, blue and cold, whispering as they reached for her, pulling, stroking, tugging at her clothes, touching her with their dry cold hands, twining their fingers through her hair. All the strength had left her limbs. She could not move. Even her heart had ceased to beat. She felt a hand on her bare breast, twisting her nipple. Teeth found the soft skin of her throat. A mouth descended on one eye, licking, sucking, biting . . ."

1.2. "She lifted her veil and let it flutter away. She took her tokar off as well. The pearls rattled softly against one another as she unwound the silk.

“Khaleesi?” Irri asked. “What are you doing?”

“Taking off my floppy ears.”

~

“Belaquo will win,” Irri declared. “It is known.”

“It is not known,” Jhiqui said. “Belaquo will die.”

“One will die, or the other will,” said Dany. “And the one who lives will die some other day. This was a mistake.”

~

“Magnificence, the people of Meereen have come to celebrate our union. You heard them cheering you. Do not cast away their love.”

“It was my floppy ears they cheered, not me.

~

The tumult and the shouting died. Ten thousand voices stilled. Every eye turned skyward. A warm wind brushed Dany’s cheeks, and above the beating of her heart she heard the sound of wings.

~

Above them all the dragon turned, dark against the sun. His scales were black, his eyes and horns and spinal plates blood red.

~

“Kill it,” Hizdahr zo Loraq shouted to the other spearmen. “Kill the beast!”

Ser Barristan held her tightly. “Look away, Your Grace.”

“Let me go!” Dany twisted from his grasp. The world seemed to slow as she cleared the parapet. When she landed in the pit she lost a sandal. Running, she could feel the sand between her toes, hot and rough. Ser Barristan was calling after her. Strong Belwas was still vomiting. She ran faster.

~

“Drogon,” she screamed. “Drogon.”

"

2.2. "Then indigo turned to orange, and whispers turned to screams. Her heart was pounding, racing, the hands and mouths were gone, heat washed over her skin, and Dany blinked at a sudden glare. Perched above her, the dragon spread his wings and tore at the terrible dark heart, ripping the rotten flesh to ribbons, and when his head snapped forward, fire flew from his open jaws, bright and hot. She could hear the shrieks of the Undying as they burned, their high thin papery voices crying out in tongues long dead. Their flesh was crumbling parchment, their bones dry wood soaked in tallow. They danced as the flames consumed them; they staggered and writhed and spun and raised blazing hands on high, their fingers bright as torches.

Dany pushed herself to her feet and bulled through them. They were light as air, no more than husks, and they fell at a touch. The whole room was ablaze by the time she reached the door. “Drogon,”  she called, and he flew to her through the fire."

 

Becoming Mhysa was a mistake, same as going to the Undying. And both times Drogon saved her from those vultures - the Udying and her slave-children, that wanted to devour her and what she really is - Mother of the dragons.

To become Queen of Meereen was a mistake. To become mother of slaves was a mistake. That is not her path.

" “I am dreaming,” she said. “A waking dream, a walking dream. I am alone and lost.”

Lost, because you lingered, in a place that you were never meant to be, murmured Ser Jorah, as softly as the wind."

"I gave you good counsel. Save your spears and swords for the Seven Kingdoms, I told you. Leave Meereen to the Meereenese and go west, I said. You would not listen.

“I had to take Meereen or see my children starve along the march.” Dany could still see the trail of corpses she had left behind her crossing the Red Waste. It was not a sight she wished to see again. “I had to take Meereen to feed my people.”

You took Meereen, he told her, yet still you lingered.

“To be a queen.”

You are a queen, her bear said. In Westeros.

“It is such a long way,” she complained. “I was tired, Jorah. I was weary of war. I wanted to rest, to laugh, to plant trees and see them grow. I am only a young girl.”

No. You are the blood of the dragon. The whispering was growing fainter, as if Ser Jorah were falling farther behind. Dragons plant no trees. Remember that. Remember who you are, what you were made to be. Remember your words.

“Fire and Blood,” Daenerys told the swaying grass."

Believing Rhaego died is not payment.  Rhaego had to die to pay for the dragons.  Going to Slaver's Bay was not a mistake.  It earned Dany the very best infantry in the world.  Her followers are growing.  Slaver's Bay is partly training for the conquest of Westeros but it is also a chance to bring freedom to millions and stop the practice of slavery.  Fire and Blood does not mean leave the Bay without ending the slave trade.  It just means a different approach to stopping slavery.  No more playing games.  It's time to accept the dragons and use them to help give freedom to the millions of slaves in Essos.  Dany is not leaving Slaver's Bay until the masters are broken and their slaves are free.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

37 minutes ago, Megorova said:

You're totally misinterpreted meaning, of what is written here:

"on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands."

The meaning of that, is that shortly after birth of Aegon, and beginning of year 282, Rhaegar went on a journey with his friends. Not to Riverlands, not after Lyanna, not yet. First he went somewhere else. And he went after Lyanna eventually, many months after he departed with his friends, to unknown location or locations.

You are misrepresenting the facts...

Can you admit the fact that Elia’s two children must have been conceived and born within two years (24months) since she married Rhaegar in 280 and he was gone come the beginning of 282?

Because it is unclear how long “eventually” means, but not that he had left his wife and newborn son by the time the year started.

You are making up the months later part because it fits your preconceived notions, don’t try and put that on me, I’m using quotes instead of wonky calculations.

After all, remember a lot had to happen in 282 after the “abduction”... you aren’t interested in the breakdown, and that’s totally fine, but if nothing else, just realize there was a lot that happened...

R+L run off

Brandon Stark goes to KL...

Rickard Stark goes to KL...

Executions galore 

Battle of Gulltown, Ned flees North

Raising Armies and calling banners

Battles of Summerhall

Siege of Storms End starts

Battle of Ashford

Battle of the Bells

37 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Lyanna wasn't impregnated during Tournament at Harrenhall, or even shortly after that. Between Tournament and her kidnapping nearly a year passed.

You are stating as fact something you can’t possibly know or show evidence of...

I’m pointing out possibilities in a vague timeline, which make sense... there is no reason to believe it was even close to a year between the tourney and Lyanna’s disappearance. 

The Tourney at Harrenhall was during the last two months of 281 and Rhaegar was already on the road by the start of 282... these are facts.

37 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Lyanna wasn't pregnant twice.

We don’t know that, again you are stating assumptions as fact.

37 minutes ago, Megorova said:

She gave birth to only one Rhaegar's child - Jon Snow, shortly after the Sack of King's Landing, a month or so after it.

Again, assumption... 

And none of the bickering over the timeline changes the fact that the Kingsguard has no business being at the Tower of Joy after the Sack of King’s Landing if a boy had not yet been born.

37 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Dany is daughter of King Aerys and Queen Rhaella. She's not some secret child. And she's not Lyanna's or Rhaegar's daughter. Dany was conceived shortly prior the Sack of King's Landing, by that time Rhaegar was already dead, while Lyanna was heavily pregnant, probably already on 8th month of her pregnancy, her first and sole pregnancy, after the end of which she gave birth to her sole child - Jon.

I see that there's no point in debating with you about time frames, or posting here my calculations, because you are dead set on a theory, that Lyanna was pregnant two times.

That’s cool, you can deny whatever you want rather than making a rational arguement. You have to know I’ve clearly shown you have no idea what you are talking about... especially regarding Elia and Rhaegar and the whole timeframe around Roberts Rebellion. 

But, we’ve coopted this thread long enough. Good luck with the dead baby theories!

[Megorova]

8 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Believing Rhaego died is not payment.  Rhaego had to die to pay for the dragons. 

Let's do some math together, count with me

Drogo - one,

Drogon - one,

the second stallion, killed by Rakharo in the beginning of Dany's last chapter in AGOT - two,

Rhaegel - two,

Mirri Maz Duur - three,

Viseryon - three,

Rhaego - four,

???

One, two, three.

One, two, three.

Rhaego - four ???

If Rhaego's life also paid for a dragon's life, then where is that fourth dragon?

8 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Going to Slaver's Bay was not a mistake.

Did I said, that going there was a mistake? I said, that staying there was a mistake. Becoming Queen of Meereen was a mistake. Because her place is to be Queen of Westeros, not Queen of Essos slaves.

8 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

It earned Dany the very best infantry in the world. 

And it will also give her a fleet, to transport her army to Westeros. Which doesn't mean, that she should stay there longer than absolutely neccessary, and waste time on playing a gardening game, or mothering game.

8 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Fire and Blood does not mean leave the Bay without ending the slave trade.  It just means a different approach to stopping slavery.  No more playing games.  It's time to accept the dragons and use them to help give freedom to the millions of slaves in Essos.  Dany is not leaving Slaver's Bay until the masters are broken and their slaves are free.

Her ultimate mission was to bring dragons back to the world, not to end slavery in it. So what happens in Essos, is totally irrelevant for the bigger picture. When the Others will come, they won't care whom to kill, whether their victims are slaves, or free people. Though if there will be dragons, that will be used as a weapon against the Others, then that's what is going to make a real difference, whether people of Planetos will survive thru this Long Night, or they won't.

8 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

After all, remember a lot had to happen in 282 after the “abduction”... you aren’t interested in the breakdown, and that’s totally fine, but if nothing else, just realize there was a lot that happened...

I'm well aware of all those events. And are you aware, that it takes 5-6 months for nearly all that traveling, that happened during the Rebellion? I'll write breakdown below.

Tournament at Harrenhall - lasted 10 days, one of those days was October 31, Halloween day (Lyanna's costume was the Knight of the Laughing Tree). 

And probably Harvest Feast is held in late November, because its basis is Thanksgiving Day.

8 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

R+L run off

23 September 282 <- one of important dates in the War of Roses, on which GRRM based ASOIAF-series.

8 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Brandon Stark goes to KL...

Rickard Stark goes to KL...

Lyanna and Brandon were on the way to Riverrun, though probably they departed there from different locations. Most likely when Rickard heard about Lyanna's disappearance, and that Brandon went to KL, at that time Rickard was already at Riverrun. And it's unlikely, that he waited to get a personal invitation from Aerys, until he went after his son to KL.

I found info on speed of travel on horseback, thru various types of terrains, how far a horse can travel, miles per day:

https://www.cartographersguild.com/showthread.php?t=19730

On Roads / trails
Level or rolling terrain: 40
Hilly terrain: 30
Mountainous terrain: 20

Off-Road (or unkempt trails etc)
Level/rolling grasslands: 30
Hilly grasslands: 25
Level/rolling forest/thick scrub: 20
Very hilly forest/thick scrub: 15

Un-blazed Mountain passes: 10
Marshland: 10

Distance from Riverrun to KL is 770 miles, by River Road and King Road.

770/40 = 19,25 days. From September 23 + 19,25 days - 19th day will be October 12 and 19,25th day will be October 13.

October 12-13th - Rickard arrived to KL.

What a coincidence! this is also an important date from the War of Roses (The battle of Ludford Bridge (12-13 October 1459) was a humiliating defeat that appeared to have ended any hopes of a Yorkist victory in the Wars of the Roses.)

What happened on September 23rd -"Salisbury then ran into Audley and Dudley at Blore Heath in Shropshire (23 September 1459), but defeated the larger Lancastrian army and was able continue on his way south."

Rhaegar ran into Lyanna, and after that went south, same as Salisbury during War of Roses.

8 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Executions galore 

This doesn't require much time. All of them were executed in one day. Next.

8 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Battle of Gulltown, Ned flees North

Direct line between KL and The Eyrie is 600 miles. Furthest castle of The Vale from The Eyrie is Baelish Keep - 470 miles.

Speed of pigeons:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homing_pigeon

"Their average flying speed over moderate 640 km (400 miles) distances is around 80 km/h (50 miles per hour)." There are many birds, that are much faster than that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_birds_by_flight_speed

It is known from ASOIAF-books, that ravens are bigger, faster and have higher endurance than pigeons, that's why raven-mail is preferable method of communication in that world.

Let's take as an average speed for ravens 50 mph.

KL -> Eyrie - 600 miles/50 = 12 hours.

I don't think, that it took Jon much time to decide what to do, whether to complay with Aerys' demand, or to send ravens to his own bannermen all over The Vale.

Eyrie -> Baelish Keep and other castles, 470/50 = 9,4 hours.

Thus less than 24 hours after Rickard's and Brandon's execution, entire Vale already knew, that they are going to rebel against Targaryens.

During winter The Vale is unaccessible thru mountain trails, so the only way to get out of it is by sea-route. So they went from The Eyrie to Gulltown, probably thru Redford, 370 miles thru mountainous terrain, 370/20 = 18,5 days.

While Robert and Jon Arryn went to fight in Gulltown (and that battle ended fast), Ned went thru the Moon mountains and The Fingers, from where he was transported thru The Bite by local fisherman. That's why some people thought, that Jon's mother was some fisherman's daughter. Because Jon was conceived at approximately that time plus minus a month or two, when Ned was going to The North from The Vale. By that time Gulltown was already under control of rebels, and Robert sailed to Storm's End.

812 nautical miles. Average speed of medieval ship is 5 miles per hour. 

http://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Journals/TAPA/82/Speed_under_Sail_of_Ancient_Ships*.html

Under favourable winds Robert arrived to Storm's End, after 7 days of sea-travel. With unfavourable winds, the speed could be 1,5 knots. 1 knot is 1,15 miles per hour. So minimum speed is 1,725 mph. The ship can sail 24 hours per day, unlike horses it doesn't need to rest. So under unfavourable winds, it would have taken Robert 20 days to sail from Gulltown to Storm's End. Obviously that by the time when Robert was already home, Ned was still on the way North, whether Robert arrived home after 7 or 20 days of travel.

8 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Raising Armies and calling banners

I'll get back to this a bit later, first let's go thru calculation of distances.

8 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Battles of Summerhall

Robert won those battles in a single day.

300 miles from Storm's End to Summerhall, thru mountainous terrain/Dornish Marches. 300/20 = 15 days.

8 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Siege of Storms End starts

Battle of Ashford

Only it happened in opposite order.

Robert left Stannis to command in Storm's End, and then went to Ashford.

Summerhall is located nearly in the middle.

Storm's End 300 miles - Summerhall - 270 miles Ashford.

So it doesn't make sense, if after only one day of battle at Summerhall, Robert went all the way back to Storm's End, to later go back thru Summerhall again, to Ashford. It's obvious, that he went to Ashford from Summerhall, 270/20 = 13,5 days.

There he fought against troops of Randyll Tarly, and was wounded. Mace Tyrell also was bringing his troops to fight against rebels, so Robert had to withdraw from that battle, and went to Stoney Sept in Riverlands. And while he was going there, Mace went with his troops from Ashford to Storm's End, to lay a siege, that was lifted by Ned, close to a year after that.

Ashford -> Stoney Sept - 570 miles thru hilly grasslands, 570/25 = 22,8 days.

Mace Tyrell went same distance, 570 miles to Storm's End (270 miles to Summerhall, and 300 miles from there to Storm's End), though his troops were going thru Dornish Marches, so they were going slower that Robert's forces, that went to Riverlands. 570/20 = 28,5 days. Thus by the time, when Mace arrived to Storm's End, nearly a week passed since Robert arrived to Stoney Sept.

Battle at Ashford was last battle of 282. By the time when Mace arrived to Storm's End, and Robert arrived to Stoney Sept, it was already year 283.

Also distance between Highgarden and Ashford is the same as between Summerhall and Ashford - 270 miles thru mountainous terrain. So probably when Robert defeated those lords at Summerhall, Mace marched his troops towards Ashford, same as Robert. Though he departed later than Robert, thus the reason why he was a bit late for that battle, and Randyll Tarly mostly won with his troops alone.

8 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Battle of the Bells

This battle happened in 283.

15 January 283.

Meanwhile during the War of Roses "Warwick now took the initiative. First he sent a raiding force across to Sandwich (15 January 1460). This force captured Rivers, his wife and his son and the fleet and took them to Calais. With the new ships at his disposal Warwick decided to visit York in Ireland. The two men probably came up with a plan for a two-pronged invasion of England, although there would be a three month gap between Warwick's invasion of the south of England and York's return from Ireland." 

Ned's and Robert's plan was double wedding to Tully sisters.

For the wedding they went to Riverrun <- Stoney Sept - 235 miles thru hilly grasslands, 235/25 = 9,4 days.

Then from there to Trident, by River Road, 335 miles, 335/40 = 8,4 days.

From Trident Ned went to KL - 435 miles/40 = 10,9 days.

From KL to Storm's End - same 435 miles = 10,9 days.

From Storm's End to the Tower of Joy - either 570 miles thru land-route (570/20 = 28,5 days), or by sea-route (either around Stormlands 1045 nautical miles, 1045/5/24 = 8,7 days + 35 more miles thru untrailed marshlands, 10 miles per day, 3,5 days; 12,2 days in total; or 170 miles to Grandview, 170/20 = 8,5 days, from there by ship or boat 495 nautical miles, 495/5/24 = 4,13 days + 3,5 days thru mountains; 16,13 days in total).

So it took Ned approximately 2-4 weeks (12-29 days) to get to the Tower of Joy, depending on the route he took.

Now let's add together all those travel days, starting from Rickard departing from Riverrun, and ending with Ned finding Lyanna:

Riverrun to KL - 19,25 days

The Eyrie to Gulltown - 18,5 days

Gulltown to Storm's End - 7-20 days (based on winds)

Storm's End to Summerhall - 15 days

Summerhall to Ashford - 13,5 days

Ashford to Stoney Sept - 22,8 days

Stoney Sept to Riverrun - 9,4 days

Riverrun to Trident - 8,4 days

Trident to KL - 10,9 days

KL to Storm's End - 10,9 days

Storm's End to Tower of Joy - 12-29 days.

148-178 days. 5-6 months of Rebellion's duration was spent on traveling from one location to another. Obviously, that we also need to add here pauses between battles, and time for various preparations, like raising armies and calling banners.

I previously went thru another calculation, that also included other information, aside from distances and travel time. Based on that calculation, the Rebellion lasted 9,5-10 months. Beginning from 15 October 282 (when Jon Arryn called his bannermen) and ending in early September of 283 (the Sack of KL happened on August 25 or a few days later).

Lyanna was kidnapped on 23 September.

Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, on night between December 23 and 24.

Rhaegar and Lyanna had two months of time, in which they could have went either via land-route from Harrenhall to Starfall (1300 miles thru various terrains, first 800 miles they could have went by King's Road and then Roseroad, 800/40 =  20 days, and then thru mountains 500/20 = 25 days, 45 days + resting time). Or they could have went all the way by Roseroad to Oldtown, where they got married in a Starry Sept, and from there took a ship to Starfall. Or could be that Rhaegar, prior kidnapping Lyanna, sailed on one of his ships thru Blackwater Rush to God's Eye. From there on horse to King's Road, where he kidnapped Lyanna. And then they went thru the river, to Blackwater Bay. And from there sailed to Oldtown, where they got married. And then to Starfall, where they were staying, untill Gerold Hightower arrived there, to take Rhaegar back to KL.

If Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, then he was born on 25 September 283. Ned arrived to Tower of Joy 23-30 days after the Sack (which happened in interval between August 26 - September 2). Dany was conceived a few days prior the Sack of KL, on August 24 or 25, and was born 40 weeks later, either on May 31 or June 1. Which makes Jon 8 or so months older than Dany.

Though all this calculations are approximate.

8 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

That’s cool, you can deny whatever you want rather than making a rational arguement. You have to know I’ve clearly shown you have no idea what you are talking about... especially regarding Elia and Rhaegar and the whole timeframe around Roberts Rebellion. 

There you have (above) plenty of rational arguments.

The Rebellion lasted less than 12 months, it started in last quarter of 282, in the middle of October, and ended either after the Sack of KL in last week of August, or in first-second week of September of 283 (when Ned arrived to Storm's End).

8 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Good luck with the dead baby theories!

Well, I can't wish you the same. Because even though I'm only 90% sure, that Rhaego is alive, what I'm sure 100%, is that Dany is a pure Targaryen, and she doesn't have even a single drop of Stark blood. So good luck with coping with TWOW-book, turning out to be entirely not what you were expecting.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

22 hours ago, Megorova said:

Let's do some math together, count with me

Drogo - one,

Drogon - one,

the second stallion, killed by Rakharo in the beginning of Dany's last chapter in AGOT - two,

Rhaegel - two,

Ummm the horse doesn’t count... Rhaego was for Rhaegal... if in fact there is any 1 to 1 soul thing even happening here... frankly we don’t really have any evidence of that.

Quote

Mirri Maz Duur - three,

Viseryon - three,

Rhaego - four,

???

One, two, three.

One, two, three.

Rhaego - four ???

If Rhaego's life also paid for a dragon's life, then where is that fourth dragon?

3 human lives, 3 dragons... I guess... or it was just Dany was ready for Dragons... so she woke them.

Quote

I'm well aware of all those events. And are you aware, that it takes 5-6 months for nearly all that traveling, that happened during the Rebellion? I'll write breakdown below.

Now let's add together all those travel days, starting from Rickard departing from Riverrun, and ending with Ned finding Lyanna:

Riverrun to KL - 19,25 days

The Eyrie to Gulltown - 18,5 days

Gulltown to Storm's End - 7-20 days (based on winds)

Storm's End to Summerhall - 15 days

Summerhall to Ashford - 13,5 days

Ashford to Stoney Sept - 22,8 days

Stoney Sept to Riverrun - 9,4 days

Riverrun to Trident - 8,4 days

Trident to KL - 10,9 days

There was also the travel on the other side of the war, after the battle of the bells Connington is exiled, Darry and Selmy are sent to the Stony Sept, Gerold Hightower is sent to find Rhaegar, and Lewyn Martel is sent to meet the Dornish Spears marching from Dorne... Rhaegar has to return to Kings Landing and raise an army... KL needs to be stocked with Wildfire... and we need to count from the Burning of Chelsted as when Rhaella conceived, which had to have been before the Trident, since Jon Darry was there and died on the Trident.

Quote

KL to Storm's End - 10,9 days

Storm's End to Tower of Joy - 12-29 days.

148-178 days. 5-6 months of Rebellion's duration was spent on traveling from one location to another. Obviously, that we also need to add here pauses between battles, and time for various preparations, like raising armies and calling banners.

So everything else aside, I should say I respect the effort and credit where credit is due, you are presenting an argument where you’ve clearly given it some thought, so cheers and know I enjoy the discussion.

But,

First, there is the issue that George has pretty explicitly said he didn’t work out all the travel times and to put down the ruler and stop watch while trying to figure this out.

Second, while I’m not interested in debating the numbers, what you are presenting seems like a crack at minimum possible travel time for each leg... of course the issue is we have no reason to believe the war was fought in flash mode (as fast as possible).

A glance at the War of the Roses, which you seem to be siting for dates (I really dont think this makes sense) will show it lasted for decades, and is not a direct parallel to the event of ASoIaF... 

I would much prefer to work from the text, but hey that’s me.

Quote

I previously went thru another calculation, that also included other information, aside from distances and travel time. Based on that calculation, the Rebellion lasted 9,5-10 months. Beginning from 15 October 282 (when Jon Arryn called his bannermen) and ending in early September of 283 (the Sack of KL happened on August 25 or a few days later).

Lyanna was kidnapped on 23 September.

Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, on night between December 23 and 24.

Though all this calculations are approximate.

All the calculations are approximate and don’t show how long things took, just a guess at how fast they could have possibly happened... and even that the author can fudge if he wants. So I’m not sure all the calculations actually help us work anything out.

I haven’t seen any good way to guesstimate things like Ned calling his banners or Rhaegar raising an army in the crownlands. Presumably these are the things which take the longest.

But again, it just highlights the futility of trying to measure each event, travel time, and preparation... instead we should be looking for textual clues, like the false spring lasting two turns, Rhaegar already being gone at the start of the year, or the Battle of the bells being around the new year. These allow us to position events on a timeline or at least provide a date range for events to take place, which compiles can add clarity.

Quote

There you have (above) plenty of rational arguments.

Cheers! They are arguments anyway...and honestly the whole thing is a mess... but my point stands, there was time for two pregnancies.

Quote

The Rebellion lasted less than 12 months, it started in last quarter of 282, in the middle of October, and ended either after the Sack of KL in last week of August, or in first-second week of September of 283 (when Ned arrived to Storm's End).

But this does not follow from what you have said... showing calculations for travel time might get you a real world guestimate of travel time, but doesn’t help define the timeline of events.

Also, of course, it matters what you define as the war’s start and end.

We need evidence from the text of events we can tie to dates or at least position in relation to other events.

And I think you kind of missed the point here, the war doesn’t need to last two years exactly... it started in 282 and ended in 283...

I don’t think it’s very clear exactly how much of those years it encompasses... but there just needs to be the time Lyanna is missing, to have time for two pregnancies. 

Which there is, even if the sack of King’s landing was as early as possible (3-4 months minimum into 283, so that about 9 months later Rhaella died in 284, a fact we know, even though she really conceived before the sack)... Elia has 5 months of “bed rest” in addition to her two pregnancies... no guessing at distance or speed required, just use of the text.

Or if you prefer another way of looking at it there is this quote:

He had a man's needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father's castle at Riverrun. Her thoughts were more of Robb, the infant at her breast, than of the husband she scarcely knew.

Cat was married in 283 (during the first 3 months since Robb was also born in 283).

Since Robb couldn’t possibly have been born before 9 months into 283 (September, and even that is stretching credulity since he needed to be conceived in 283) it’s hard to believe that the war was already over if Cat is having this thought... instead it makes it seem Ned didn’t return North until near the end of 283 or start of 284.

Quote

Well, I can't wish you the same. Because even though I'm only 90% sure, that Rhaego is alive, what I'm sure 100%, is that Dany is a pure Targaryen, and she doesn't have even a single drop of Stark blood. So good luck with coping with TWOW-book, turning out to be entirely not what you were expecting.

I should hope not, life without surprises is no fun at all, and let’s be honest I’d be happy to get any Winds at all...

But given that Dany has dragons, I feel pretty good about her being a child of ice and fire.

[Megorova]

14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Ummm the horse doesn’t count...

Life is life. So as long as a sacrifice is a hot-blooded living being, its life does counts.

Life of first stallion - payment for Drogo's life.

14 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Rhaego was for Rhaegal... if in fact there is any 1 to 1 soul thing even happening here... frankly we don’t really have any evidence of that.

For Rhaegel's life paid second stallion's life.

Actually there are clues whose life paid for which dragon.

First out of three died Drogo - Dany smothered him with a pillow, sometime during night prior funeral night. So his life force was the weakest out of three sacrifices. And that's one of the reasons why Drogon's egg hatched the last out of three.

Second out of three died the second stallion, he was killed shortly prior appeared first star of next night after Drogo's death. Rhaegel's egg hatched second.

Third died Mirri, her life force was the most vibrant out of three sacrifices. Because she died while burning on a funeral pyre, not like the other two, that died hours prior the burning. Mirri's life paid for Viseryon. His egg hatched first.

We know for sure, that first hatched Viseryon. Because during the burning Dany heard three cracks, and after first of them piece of Viseryon's eggshell fell out of the pyre. After the fire, when Jorah saw Dany's dragons for the first time, Viseryon was suckling milk from Dany's left breast (he hatched first and went to her), Rhaegel was suckling milk from her right breast (he hatched second and went to Dany), Drogon was draped accross Dany's shoulders (his egg hatched the last out of three, so when after that, he went to Dany, both of her breasts were already occupied by other two dragons, that hatched earlier than Drogon).

The stronger was lifeforce, the faster the egg hatched. Strongest/freshest life force was Mirri's, and first hatched Viseryon's egg. The weakest/stale life force was Drogo's, he died more than 12 hours prior burning, so his life paid for the dragon whose egg hatched the last - Drogon's.

Isn't this logical?

15 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Second, while I’m not interested in debating the numbers, what you are presenting seems like a crack at minimum possible travel time for each leg...

No, I'm actually using between average and maximum reasonable possible travel time. By maximum reasonable, I mean, that they were moving at a steady pace, and weren't leisuring during that war, weren't making prolonged barbecue-picnics during each of their resting breaks, on their journeys.
 

 

Here's a few sources about speed of traveling on horses, carts, and on foot:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_military_tactics_and_organization

"Each Mongol soldier typically maintained 3 or 4 horses.^[1] Changing horses often allowed them to travel at high speed for days without stopping or wearing out the animals. Their ability to live off the land, and in extreme situations off their animals (mare's milk especially), made their armies far less dependent on the traditional logistical apparatus of agrarian armies. In some cases, as during the invasion of Hungary in early 1241, they covered up to 100 miles (160 km) per day, which was unheard of by other armies of the time."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horses_in_the_Middle_Ages#Riding_horses

"The speed of travel varied greatly. Large retinues could be slowed by the presence of slow-paced carts and litters, or by servants and attendants on foot, and could rarely cover more than fifteen to twenty miles a day. Small mounted companies might travel 30 miles a day. However, there were exceptions: stopping only for a change of horses midway, Richard II of England once managed the 70 miles between Daventry and Westminster in a night.^[63] "

https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/6411/possible-distance-travelled-by-horse-over-6-weeks

"The trip from Lisboa to Zaragoza took 17 days for 947 km. On average, they can ride 56 km per day."

947/17 = 55,7 or 34,6 miles per day.

"I'm much more familiar with humans speeds than with horses. I would say normal human walking speed with a 20 kg backpack on decent terrain is 5-6 km/h (3-3.75 miles) and can be maintained for 8-9 hours a day. Modern day military forced marches do about 8-9 km/h (5-6 miles), but is usually limited to 3-4 hours duration. Roman legionnaires where expected to be able to do a daily 30 km (22 miles) march under 5 hours with approx. 25 kg of load."

"Bud and Temple Abernathy - Rode 4,500 miles from New York to San Francisco in 62 days in 1911. They were aged 11 and 7 and traveled without adult supervision. == 72.5mi/day (and allegedly w/o buying new horses - but also, lighter weight than full grown adults). "

4,500/62 = 72,58 miles per day. <- though for this case we need to include, not only that those riders were children, and thus didn't weighted much, but also that in a year 1911, roads were in a better condition than in Medieval ages, during which are happening events of ASOIAF.  So with inclusion of heavier load, and worse conditions of roads and traveling terrains, it would be reasonable to reduce that speed threefold 72,58/3 = 24 miles per day.

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-average-speed-of-a-horse-drawn-carriage

"Carriage horses are generally trotting. Depending on the fitness of the horses, they trot between 10 and 15 miles per hour. Trotting for 2 to 3 hours with a couple of slight walking rests is not at all out of reach. So a couple of good carriage horses should be able to convey a carriage 20-30 miles in an 8 hour day. Most traveling across distances would change horses at places called posting houses that had fresh horses posted there in advance. Hence the term post haste and the term post office. So if you were willing and could afford to change horses, you could conceivable cover 50 miles or more in a day."

Carriage travels 20-30 miles per day. Or even up to 50 miles, if you have a change of horses.

http://www.rutasramonllull.com/en/traveling-middle-ages

"On foot, the average distance travelled in one day was about 25 kilometres and could even reach 50 or 60 in the case of professional couriers (real athletes).

On horse, the daily journey could be around 60 and 100 kilometres"

On foot 25-60 kilometers per day, that's 15,5-37 miles per day.

On horse 60-100 kilometers, or 37-62 miles per day.

 

Now let's add all those numbers together, and see what will be an average of them:

(100 + 30 + 70 + 34,6 + 24 + 25 + 50 + 37 + 62) / 9 =  48 miles per day, on horseback. (With exclusion of Mongols and Richard II, the average speed would be 37,5 miles per day.)

(22 + 15,5 + 37) / 3 = 24,8 miles per day, on foot.

 

For most of travels during Robert's Rebellion, I used as average speed 20 miles per day. I went thru books and maps of ASOIAF, and based on that info made a conclusion what kind of terrain is on each of those legs of traveling. 

• Traveling on level terrain, on roads, average speed 40 miles per day:

- Rickard's journey prior Rebellion - from Riverrun to KL - 770 miles, by River Road and King Road;

- Ned's journey after his wedding, from Riverrun to Trident, by River Road, 335 miles;

- after Rhaegar's death, from Trident Ned went to KL - 435 miles;

- then after the Sack, from KL to Storm's End - 435 miles.

Other traveling:

• thru mountainous terrain, 20 miles per day:

- Robert and Jon going from The Eyrie to Gulltown - 370 miles;

- Robert going from Storm's End to Summerhall - 300 miles (at about the same time Mace Tyrell departed from Highgarden, and went from there to Summerhall - 270 miles);

- then Robert went from Summerhall to Ashford - 270 miles;

- Ned going from Storm's End to the Tower of Joy (the longest land-route) - 570 miles;

• different terrain, from Dornish Marches to Riverlands, and off roads thru Riverlands, thru hilly grasslands, 25 miles per day:

- Robert went from Ashford to Stoney Sept - 570 miles.

- then for the wedding they went from Stoney Sept to Riverrun - 235 miles.

As you can see, out of those travels, that took place during Rebellion, 1,975 miles went by main roads of 7K, average speed of traveling thru them I took 40 miles per day; 805 miles thru hilly grasslands, with average speed 25 miles per day; and 1,510 miles thru mountainous terrain, with average speed 20 miles per day.

4,290 miles in total.

1,975/40 = 49,375 days

805/25 = 32,2 days

1,510/20 = 75,5 days.

157,075 days - this is without inclusion of sea-traveling, for now we're going only thru land-travels.

And if we'll use that average from calculations above, gathered from various sources, then to cover a distance of 4,290 miles with average speed of 48 (37,5) miles on horseback, it will take 89,375 days (114,4 days), and on foot, with average speed of 24,8 miles per day - 172,98 days.

So those 157 days of land-traveling, and additional 1-3 weeks of sea-traveling, from my estimates, is a reasonable calculation.

Furthermore, if you'll go thru other sources on the web, about average speed of horses, then you'll see, that the most frequently mentioned speed is 30 miles per day. 4,290/30 = 143 days, which is even lesser than 157 days from my calculations.

So your assumption, that I'm supposedly presenting "minimum possible travel time for each leg" is totally unreasonable. I used speeds below average.

17 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

There was also the travel on the other side of the war, after the battle of the bells Connington is exiled, Darry and Selmy are sent to the Stony Sept, Gerold Hightower is sent to find Rhaegar, and Lewyn Martel is sent to meet the Dornish Spears marching from Dorne... Rhaegar has to return to Kings Landing and raise an army... KL needs to be stocked with Wildfire... and we need to count from the Burning of Chelsted as when Rhaella conceived, which had to have been before the Trident, since Jon Darry was there and died on the Trident

In my estimates, the Battle of the Bells happened in the middle of January, and the Battle at Trident in the middle of July, or even a bit later (the Sack of KL happened in late late August). The pause between those battles was approximately 5-6 months. And all that you mentioned above, happened in those months.

After the Battle of the Bells, Aerys has sent Gerold Hightower after Rhaegar. I think, that maybe first he went from King's Landing to Harrenhall, to visit House Whent (because amongst Rhaegar's companions, when he kidnapped Lyanna, was Oswell Whent, so first Gerold checked whether they are at Harrenhall), and after that he went to Starfall. That's where he foud Rhaegar. After that Gerold, Rhaegar, Lyanna and other went north thru Dornish Mountains. While they were going thru Prince's Pass, they realised that Lyanna is pregnant, so not to endanger life of their baby, they decided that Lyanna will stay at the Tower of Joy, with three Kingsguards, and Rhaegar continued his journey. It takes approximately 75 days to go from King's Landing to Starfall, thru the hardest roure, thru unblazed mountain passes, off roads.

After the Battle of the Bells, Aerys has sent Darry and Selmy to gather remnants of Targaryen army near Stoney Sept. Which doesn't mean, that Aerys couldn't have simultaneously send Gerold to find Rhaegar.

Distance between Harrenhall and KL is 370 miles, there and back with average speed on level road 40 miles per day, 18,2 days for Gerold to get there and back. Let's say 21 day, with inclusion of rest after he got to Harrenhall, and when he returned to KL. Then 75 days to Starfall, and 75 days from Starfall to KL. 21 + 75 + 75 = 171 days. If Battle of the Bells happened 15 January, and after that loss Aerys has sent Gerold after Rhaegar, then he arrived there 171 days after 15 January, and that's 4 July <- add to this day several more weeks for Rhaegar and Lyanna to prepare for their journey north, for Rhaegar to part with Lyanna at the Tower of Joy, for Rhaegar to prepare for the battle after his arrival to KL, and how much time it takes to go from KL to Trident, is already included in my calculations. So the Battle at Trident happened in early August or late July.

Darry and Selmy went to Stoney Sept sometime after second part of January, so they had plenty of time to gather Targaryen forces from there, and then to return to KL, to later depart from there with Rhaegar.

Maybe Dany was conceived while Rhaegar was still alive, and didn't even went to Trident, yet. But he went to battle shortly after that.

18 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

but my point stands, there was time for two pregnancies.

No, there wasn't. Lyanna wasn't pregnant when Rhaegar kidnapped her. So even if he impregnated her immediately after the kidnapping, let's say on 23 September, then she would have given birth to her child 40 weeks later on 8 July. And by that time Rhaegar was already far away from Lyanna. So there's no way that he could have impregnated her again.

18 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

And I think you kind of missed the point here, the war doesn’t need to last two years exactly... it started in 282 and ended in 283...

It started in late 282. After Lyanna's kidnapping, her brother and father went to KL, were executed there, Jon Arryn started rebellion, Robert arrived from Gulltown to Storm's End, from there went to Summerhall, where he fought for ONE! day, then he went from there to Ashford, where he sort of lost to Randyll Tarly, and then went to Stoney Sept. The end of the year. Gulltown, Summerhall, Ashford - those battles happened in span of late October, November and December.

For some reason you think, that Lyanna was kidnapped close to the beginning of 282, not near the end of it. But that's wrong. It is known, that Gulltown was taken very fast, the battles at Summerhall lasted only one day. So what were they doing for the rest of that year?

18 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I don’t think it’s very clear exactly how much of those years it encompasses... but there just needs to be the time Lyanna is missing, to have time for two pregnancies. 

This is the source of your blindness (Sorry).

You're sure that she was pregnant twice, and gave birth to two children, from two separate pregnancies. So you're taking her two pregnancies as a fact, and then going from there, you're trying to bend timeframe of Rebellion's events, in a way for them to fit into your theory, completely ignoring known fact of Rebellion, that contradict your theory. Which is wrong.

18 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Since Robb couldn’t possibly have been born before 9 months into 283 (September, and even that is stretching credulity since he needed to be conceived in 283) it’s hard to believe that the war was already over if Cat is having this thought... instead it makes it seem Ned didn’t return North until near the end of 283 or start of 284.

Robb was probably conceived in early or middle of February, and born in November. At that time Ned was probably at KL, with Lyanna's body. Then Ned went to Winterfell, where he has brought little Jon and his wet nurse Wylla. Obviously that for several months after Cat gave birth to her child, she was staying at Riverrun. So she went to Winterfell in early 284. By the time when she arrived there, Jon was already there. Probably Ned brought Lyanna's body and Jon to Winterfell via ship, thru KL, White Harbor and up White Knife river. So Ned arrived there earlier than Cat, but both of them were there at approximately the time of their anniversary in February, or a bit later.

I also calculated how much time it took Ned to go from the Eyrie to The North, and from there for his troops to arrive just in time for Battle of the Bells.

Eyrie - Fingers, 470 miles thru Vale of Arryn, thru off-road hilly grasslands, speed 25 miles per hour, 18,8 days.

Fingers - White Harbor, thru The Bite on a rowboat, 835 miles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rowing

"A rower can maintain 40 strokes per minute for only a brief period. Longer, narrower rowboats can reach 7 knots (13 km/h; 8.1 mph) but most rowboats of 4.3 m (14 ft) can be rowed at 3–4 knots (5.6–7.4 km/h; 3.5–4.6 mph)."

I'm taking speed 4 mph, and that they rowed for 8 hours per day, taking one hour break, after each of them rowing for 30 minutes.

For example they wake up at 5 am, with sunrise. One hour for breakfast and other trivial things, and then each day they depart/begin rowing from 6 am.

1 hour 6-7 rowing, 7-8 break, 2 hour 8-9 rowing, 9-10 break, 3 hour 10-11 rowing, 11-12 break, 4 hour 12-13 rowing, 13-14 break, 5 hour 14-15 rowing, 15-16 break, 6 hour 16-17 rowing, 17-18 break, 7 hour 18-19 rowing, 19-20 break, 8 hour 20-21 rowing, and they go to sleep after 9 pm, which gives them 8 hours of daily sleep until 5 am. Or if one of them is staying awake during night, while the other one is either just watching over boat, or continue rowing, then each of them will sleep for 4 hours per day. If it was a boat with sail, then they could have sailed at night on wind alone, without rowing. So one of them can sleep and the other is managing boat.

So 4 mph, and 8 hours of rowing per day, is reasonable amount, especially for a healthy 20-years old Ned, and his companion - professional fisherman, who's rowing and sailing all the time.

835 miles / 4 mph / 8 hours = 26 days.

Ned arrived to White Harbor, 26 days after departing from The Fingers.

From Baelish Keep, or from Sisterton, or from White Harbor, or even prior his departure from The Eyrie, he could have sent a raven to his people in Winterfell and other northern castles, for his bannermen to begin necessary preparations. So they marched towards Winterfell long prior Ned arrived home. Though maybe he didn't even went all the way to Winterfell, maybe his troops met him at White Harbor. Though I included either possibility, even that fleet seized by Arryn, could have sailed up north, and went thru northern castles located on shores (Ramsgate, Hornwood, Widow's Watch, The Dreadford, Karhold), gathering northern troops from there, and bringing them to Trident, from which they charged towards Stoney Sept.

I'm writting the longest route, which is via land (by ships it would have been much faster):

from White Harbor up White Knife by ship, 400 miles to King's Road. Average speed of medieval ship is 5 mph. Could be even higher, but I'm taking average. The ship could saild 24 hours per day. 400 / 5 /24 = 3,33 days.

From there by King's Road, 70 miles to Winterfell, by level road, 40 miles per day. 70/40 = 1,75 days.

Then by King's Road northern troops went 1,200 miles to Crossroads Inn.

1,200/40 = 30 days.

And from there to Stoney Sept, thru hilly grasslands, with speed 25 miles per day. 335 miles/25 = 13,4 days.

18,8 (Eyrie - Fingers) + 26 (Fingers - White Harbor) + 3,33 (White Harbor - King's Road) + 1,75 (King's Road - Winterfell) + 30 (Winterfell - Trident/Crossroad Inn) + 13,4 (Crossroad - Stoney Sept) = 93,28 days between Ned departing from The Eyrie, and arriving just in time to save Robert at Stoney Sept.

If Brandon and Rickard were executed on 13 October, and Ned departed from The Eyrie on 14-15 October, after Jon Arryn received Aerys' letter, then he arrived to Stoney Sept 93,28 days later, in the first part of day 94 counting from 14-15 October, and that's 15 January - the day of the Bells battle.

18 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

But given that Dany has dragons, I feel pretty good about her being a child of ice and fire.

Only Rhaegar said that The Song of Ice and Fire belongs to his son the promised Prince. He was wrong which son exactly, though he was right in general terms. Dany is one of three heads of the dragon, but she's not the promised Prince/Princess.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

3 hours ago, Megorova said:

No, there wasn't. Lyanna wasn't pregnant when Rhaegar kidnapped her. So even if he impregnated her immediately after the kidnapping, let's say on 23 September, then she would have given birth to her child 40 weeks later on 8 July.

So I’m suggesting Lyanna and Rhaegar slept together at the Tourney of Harrenhall and conceived... that’s why he crowned her queen of love and beauty, and why a few months later hey disappeared together.

3 hours ago, Megorova said:

And by that time Rhaegar was already far away from Lyanna. So there's no way that he could have impregnated her again.

23 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

And I think you kind of missed the point here, the war doesn’t need to last two years exactly... it started in 282 and ended in 283...

It started in late 282.

We we don’t know that... unless there is evidence in the text I’ve missed, it sounds like you just assume this...

3 hours ago, Megorova said:

After Lyanna's kidnapping, her brother and father went to KL, were executed there, Jon Arryn started rebellion, Robert arrived from Gulltown to Storm's End, from there went to Summerhall, where he fought for ONE! day, then he went from there to Ashford, where he sort of lost to Randyll Tarly, and then went to Stoney Sept. The end of the year. Gulltown, Summerhall, Ashford - those battles happened in span of late October, November and December.

But we have no idea how long the various factions spent raising armies and preparing for battle... I agree Gulltown happened relatively quickly after Aerys demanded Robert and Ned’s heads... but after that it gets super fuzzy.

3 hours ago, Megorova said:

For some reason you think, that Lyanna was kidnapped close to the beginning of 282, not near the end of it. But that's wrong. It is known, that Gulltown was taken very fast, the battles at Summerhall lasted only one day. So what were they doing for the rest of that year?

The vast majority of war isn’t the actual battles, we don’t know how long it took to raise armies or how long was spent in preparation or negotiating allies or marriages... Just because things could happen quickly doesn’t mean they did. 

I do have to ask why you are so certain the war didn’t start until late 282? Is there some detail I missed or do you just feel it’s more likely due to your timeline... either way is ok, I’m just trying to understand if it is based on the text or your calculations?

 

[Megorova]

On 5/17/2018 at 11:29 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

So I’m suggesting Lyanna and Rhaegar slept together at the Tourney of Harrenhall and conceived... that’s why he crowned her queen of love and beauty, and why a few months later hey disappeared together.

And I think, that he crowned her because she was Knight of the Laughing Tree, and he knew it. He was the one who warned her, thru Ashara Dayne, that King Aerys ordered to unmask the mystery knight. Though if she haven't withdrawn from further participation, it's possible, that she could have became one of tournament's champions.

On 5/17/2018 at 11:29 PM, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I do have to ask why you are so certain the war didn’t start until late 282? Is there some detail I missed or do you just feel it’s more likely due to your timeline... either way is ok, I’m just trying to understand if it is based on the text or your calculations?

It's based on several things. It's a general outline of time frame, created by those things.

Like this is events that happened in 298: Jon Arryn died; Robert Baratheon with his court went to Winterfell; there he named Ned Stark his Hand, and they all went from Winterfell to King's Landing; at King's Landing, prior Robert's death, were held two tournaments; Cat Stark went from Winterfell to King's Landing, then to The Vale; even prior Robert's death, happened this battles - Golden Tooth, Mummer's Ford; then Ned was imprisoned, and Robb summoned northern bannermen to Winterfell, they arrived there, were hosted in turns, and then they departed to Deepwood Motte.

When Ned was intending to take Sansa away from KL, she regretted that she won't be able to see there celebration of Harvest Feast (of 298); Meera and Jojen Reed arrived to Winterfell during Harvest Feast (of 299), at that time Meera was 15; Meera turned 16 between Harvest Feast and New Year's Eve (300).

In 298 Harvest Feast was held sometime after Ned Stark was imprisoned. When he was imprisoned, Robb summoned northern bannermen to Winterfell. They gathered, and then departed. Robb didn't fought any battles in 298, the year 298 ended prior he and Starks' bannermen arrived to battlefield. Some time after Harvest Feast of 299, the year ended.

Based on this, looks like Harvest Feast is held sometime in last quarter of a year, September-December. I think, that this Harvest Feast is ASOIAF-version of Thanksgiving.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvest_festival

But whether that is so, or not, it's still obvious, that Reeds haven't spent much time at Winterfell. So Harvest Feast is close to the end of year. Ned was imprisoned shortly prior Harvest Feast, but before year 298 ended, Robb already gathered 12,000 soldiers at Winterfell.

Thus it doesn't take much time to gather bannermen, not many months. Furthermore, not all of troops supposed to get to Winterfell, to later join the battles.

This is from AGOT:

Quote

The Karstarks came in on a cold windy morning, bringing three hundred horsemen and near two thousand foot from their castle at Karhold. The steel points of their pikes winked in the pale sunlight as the column approached. A man went before them, pounding out a slow, deep-throated marching rhythm on a drum that was bigger than he was, boom, boom, boom.

Quote

They were the last, he knew. The other lords were already here, with their hosts.

Quote

“How many is it now?” Bran asked Maester Luwin as Lord Karstark and his sons rode through the gates in the outer wall.

“Twelve thousand men, or near enough as makes no matter.”

Quote

“How long before…before they go?”

“He must march soon, or not at all,” Maester Luwin said. “The winter town is full to bursting, and this army of his will eat the countryside clean if it camps here much longer. Others are waiting to join him all along the kingsroad, barrow knights and crannogmen and the Lords Manderly and Flint. The fighting has begun in the riverlands, and your brother has many leagues to go.”

Distance between Karhold and Winterfell is 670 miles. Average speed of walking is 3,1 miles per hour. If troops will be walking for 8 hours per day, obviously with breaks to rest, then they will arrive to Winterfell (670/3,1/8 = 27) in 27 days. Covering a bit less than 25 miles per day.

Maybe that's a bit too much, so let's take as an example Roman legionnaires.

"Part of the army's training was a twenty Roman miles (18.4 miles) march (to be completed in five hours) carrying a full pack of weapons, shield, food rations, a cooking pot and a short spade, along with their personal kit."

18,4 miles in 5 hours, that's 3,68 miles per hour.

670/5/3,68 = 36,4 days, to get on foot from Karhold to Winterfell (or with speed 3,1 mph, it will take a bit over 43 days). And Karhold is the furthest northern castle from Winterfell. So if Ned was imprisoned sometime prior Thanksgiving/Harvest Feast (for example in 2017 it was on 23rd November), and that's when Robb summoned his bannermen, then the last of them arrived to Winterfell in the end of December of 298, so all battles of northern troops happened in 299.

The thing is, while infantry (foot soldiers) is marching towards their destination, the rest of troops, such as cavalry, armourers, blacksmiths, ect. can stay behind and continue preparations. And the most of ammunition and other supplies, will be prepared and send later than the infantry will begin their march. They can take with them basic weapons, and personal rations. And then the rest of the troops will catch up to them a bit later.

I don't know how else to explain It doesn't take much time to gather bannermen and prepare all necessary things for the war. Probably a month or so for general preparations (probably even less) + certain amount of time to lead troops from their original location to place of gathering.

Though look at how Robert's Rebellion progressed:

Jon Arryn and Robert took with them Arryn's troops stationed at The Eyrie, maybe on the way to Gulltown gathered some other Houses, and broke into Gulltown. Then Robert took a ship and departed to Storm's End. And Jon Arryn stayed in The Vale, gathering his other people from all over his lands, and then probably also transported them via sea-route to Trident/Crossroads. So it took Robert and Jon just a few days to prepare for going into Gulltown. Then Robert arrived home, and after he found out, that several of his lords are plotting to go against him, and support Targaryens, he gathered his people, and went to fight with those lords to Summerhall. He won there, but lost at Ashford, because the other side had more troops. And then the year ended.

And Stannis was left behind at Storm's End with small garrizon. There was too little of them, to fight back against Tyrell troops. And nobody came to help them, from nearest castles, which means, that Robert took away troops from those castles, while he went to Summerhall. After Robert left, Stannis didn't had enough time to prepare for the war, when Mace arrived there with his army. So it happened not too long after Robert's departure. Everything was happening fast. Especially in the beginning of Rebellion. It was later, in 283, that they had a few months pause between battles, thanks to Ned and Jon's troops defeating Targaryen forces at Stoney Sept. And loyalist also waited for Rhaegar's return. And rebells went to Riverrun for the wedding. So in 283 on both sides things slowed down considerably. Through prior that, first part of Rebellion, happened in a blur.

I calculated, that even if northern bannermen departed from furthest castles of The North, first marched to Winterfell, and only from there to Trident, then even on foot, they would have arrived there in time for Trident's battle.

2135 miles Karhold - Winterfell - Trident.

2135 / 3,1 miles per hour / 5 hours of marching per day = 138 days.

From my previous calculation, it took Ned 50 days to get from The Eyrie to Winterfell, he departed on 14 October. Then let's say the infantry was preparing for 30 days after Ned's arrival, and then marched towards Trident (though Ned himself, with cavalry went ahead to save Robert at Stoney Sept).

14 October + 50 + 30 + 138 = 218 days, then they would have arrived to Trident in the middle of May. And in my calculations, the battle at Trident happened in late July or even in August. Thus there's plenty of additional time for other preparations and delays if needed, and even if troops will go on foot, they will still be on time for the major battle.