Meanwhile back at the Wall

[Clegane'sPup]

I am slightly familiar with the overall layout. My curiously is about manpower at the end of DwD.

Shadow Tower is at one end and Eastwatch at the other end with CB sorta in the middle.

Now that the LC is in limbo, if a fight/battle between the free folk, NW and Stannis’ men happens at CB who is going to seize control?

Does anyone have any guesstamations (estimates) about who outnumbers whom? And/or how this situation is going to be handled by the author?

I’m thinking that the free folk or if you prefer wildlings outnumber the NW, but I can’t remember if they are armed. I am also unsure of how many men Selyse has brought to CB.  Merely some stuff rattling around in my brain that I hadn’t considered before.

[Hugorfonics]

The wildlings outnumber everyone but their children are being held hostage, so I don't think they'll make much noise.

The Queen's Men may be annoying, but there's not enough southron knights to kill Wun Wun, let alone cause real damage

I'm really interested in Green and Pyp and thems reaction to Marsh. Im worried about Alliser, I believe he had a hand in Jon's murder and will probably wanna become Lord Commander

[Lollygag]

I have a bit of maybe foreshadowing which leans towards Marsh becoming the next LC.

In ADWD Jon II, he sent away Sam, Gilly, Maester Aemon and Mance’s baby. There are some screaming RLJ parallels here: Gilly is parted from her child and asks Jon to promise her something about her baby’s name (Lyanna), Sam is pretending to be a father of a child which is not his to protect him (Ned), and we have a Targ and a King’s son who must be hidden from danger (Jon).

Right before this, Jon retells an old Stark story. Artos Stark (Jon) becomes heir after his elder brother Willem (Robb) loses his head. So we have RLJ, KitN, and following this came Jon reading about Azor Ahai and it not being Stannis. It only makes sense to me to have all of these parallels about Jon around Sam/Gilly/Maester Aemon/ Mance’s baby if Jon himself is going to be carted away by someone to somewhere and it will lead him the parallels shown.

ADWD Jon II

If the climbers reached the top of the Wall undetected, however, everything changed. Given time, they could carve out a toehold for themselves up there, throwing up ramparts of their own and dropping ropes and ladders for thousands more to clamber over after them. That was how Raymun Redbeard had done it, Raymun who had been King-Beyond-the-Wall in the days of his grandfather's grandfather. Jack Musgood had been the lord commander in those days. Jolly Jack, he was called before Redbeard came down upon the north; Sleepy Jack, forever after. Raymun's host had met a bloody end on the shores of Long Lake, caught between Lord Willam of Winterfell and the Drunken Giant, Harmond Umber. Redbeard had been slain by Artos the Implacable, Lord Willam's younger brother. The Watch arrived too late to fight the wildlings, but in time to bury them, the task that Artos Stark assigned them in his wroth as he grieved above the headless corpse of his fallen brother.

Jon did not intend to be remembered as Sleepy Jon Snow. "Thirty men will stand a better chance than none," he told Giant.

 

Much is made in ADWD that there are no Maesters. There’s only nearly blind Clydas. Sam & Co. boarded a ship at Eastwatch and we now have this guy in charge at Eastwatch. This leads me to conclude Marsh will be the next LC.

ADWD Jon X

"No, my lady. This news was long awaited." Though the last part troubles me. Glendon Hewett was a seasoned man and a strong one, a sensible choice to command in Cotter Pyke's absence. But he was also as much a friend as Alliser Thorne could boast, and a crony of sorts with Janos Slynt, however briefly. Jon could still recall how Hewett had dragged him from his bed, and the feel of his boot slamming into his ribs. Not the man I would have chosen. He rolled the parchment up and slipped it into his belt.

As for the wildlings, I think they all go Winterfell to help free Mance and Marsh would be more than happy to see them go. Another thing which leads me to think Marsh will become LC and that there will be no POV at the Wall (maybe a prologue in ADOS?): I don’t see how anyone survives a successful attack by the Others which would mean that if there’s more for Jon to do, he must be moved away from the Wall. We didn’t need a big back up story to believe Thorne hated Jon, we could accept it as-is. But with Marsh, we got a lot of back-and-forth about what each would do and why. That’s just (interesting) filler unless Marsh becomes LC and because of those discussions, we have a very good idea of what a LC Marsh would do, or rather not do without a POV to outline every detail.

 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

2 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Another thing which leads me to think Marsh will become LC and that there will be no POV at the Wall

Mel became a POV character and she is still at the Wall. She's going to be like Barristan over in Meereen. 

Tormund arrived with 60 to 80 fighting men. Morna White Mask was making her way from Queensgate and she essentially bent her knee to Jon. The odds are she's arriving in the middle of all the chaos. And there are northmen there too, seventeen fighting men between the Flint and the Norrey (and I don't think we can underestimate what Jon said to those two atop the Wall, plus the Flint is Jon's kin). I think they will fall on the side that will want Bowen Marsh's head, plus their sons are marching in Stannis's army.

And as far as we know, some fifty men with Selyse at Castle Black. And the men of the Night's Watch, I think that most of them are loyal to Jon, but then, it's hard to know. But I think the men who took their vows at the weirwood grove could be considered Jon's men.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I'm really interested in Green and Pyp and thems reaction to Marsh

It should be interesting, but at the same time, they're at Eastwatch, so who knows when they will receive that news and who is tending the ravens since the maester is at Hardhome. And if the news will even be shared seeing as Glendon Hewett was close enough to both Alester Thorne and Janos Slynt.

[Lollygag]

2 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

Mel became a POV character and she is still at the Wall. She's going to be like Barristan over in Meereen. 

I heard that Mel was a one-off POV and that she'd get no more chapters though that could change.

As Jon is likely unconscious/dead, I'm not sure how complicated any aftermath could get unless it's decided to continue Mel on as a POV. We already know the Prologue to TWOW will involve Jeyne Westerling, so that wouldn't be it.

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I am slightly familiar with the overall layout. My curiously is about manpower at the end of DwD.

Shadow Tower is at one end and Eastwatch at the other end with CB sorta in the middle.

And to each side of CB there is a castle being held by free folk leaders: on one side we have Tormund, who is at the Shieldhall w/ Jon at the end of Dance, and Morna White Mask to the other side. Worthy of note is the fact that Morna is conspicuously absent when the shit hits the fan. 

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Now that the LC is in limbo, if a fight/battle between the free folk, NW and Stannis’ men happens at CB who is going to seize control?

My money is on the free folk, and maybe the Queen's Men will join them against the conspirators. For instance, if Marsh & co decide to give Ramsay what he asked for, or at least those people they can, since neither fArya nor Reek are there, the QM may join the free folk to try to avoid this. 

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Does anyone have any guesstamations (estimates) about who outnumbers whom? And/or how this situation is going to be handled by the author?

Jon thinks that there are 5 of the free folk for each black brother when he is in the Shieldhall. And it sounds about right when you sort of do the maths. But not every black brother will side w/ the conspirators, so the odds are even worse for Marsh & co. 

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I’m thinking that the free folk or if you prefer wildlings outnumber the NW, but I can’t remember if they are armed. I am also unsure of how many men Selyse has brought to CB.  Merely some stuff rattling around in my brain that I hadn’t considered before.

I think the free folk are mostly armed w/ their more rudimentary weapons, but it won't matter none. They'll be up against a bunch of cowards. It will be a bloodbath. Can hardly wait!

I don't remember off the top of my head how many men Selyse brought... not too many, but have to look it up.  

[Lollygag]

Jon did let the wildlings through the Wall, but then he put a lot of restrictions on them which they neither like nor understand. It also came at the price set by Mel in burning the Weirwoods. They follow the strong, and right now Jon looks like swiss cheese. Basically, I disagree with those who think the wildlings in general are extremely pro-Jon. On the contrary, I think most are still cautious of him, and now that he’s in bad shape/not strong, I think they’ll go seek out Mance which is what Jon just proposed doing before getting stabbed. The wildlings wanted on the other side of the Wall, but they never wanted to defend it. Jon had to force them to do that so I don’t see them staying at the Wall let alone putting up a fight for a Wall which they hate the very idea of on behalf of a guy they were never sure about anyhow who now looks dead.

 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

36 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

I heard that Mel was a one-off POV and that she'd get no more chapters though that could change.

It would be too bad of that were the case. 

[Lollygag]

Just now, Widow's Watch said:

It would be too bad of that were the case. 

I completely agree.

[Darth Sidious]

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I am slightly familiar with the overall layout. My curiously is about manpower at the end of DwD.

Shadow Tower is at one end and Eastwatch at the other end with CB sorta in the middle.

Now that the LC is in limbo, if a fight/battle between the free folk, NW and Stannis’ men happens at CB who is going to seize control?

Does anyone have any guesstamations (estimates) about who outnumbers whom? And/or how this situation is going to be handled by the author?

I’m thinking that the free folk or if you prefer wildlings outnumber the NW, but I can’t remember if they are armed. I am also unsure of how many men Selyse has brought to CB.  Merely some stuff rattling around in my brain that I hadn’t considered before.

The wildlings have the edge in numbers.   

Jon caused a lot of damage and it remains to be seen what the full extent of that damage will be.  The NW has a duty to try and stop the wildlings from attacking the Boltons.  Being dedicated men, Bowen and the boys will either try to stop them or recognizing they don't have the numbers, let them ride out (and send a raven to the Boltons to warn them a pack of wildlings are on their way).   Hopefully Bowen will decide to let the wildlings ride out and just warn the Boltons.  

 

[Darth Sidious]

3 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

Jon did let the wildlings through the Wall, but then he put a lot of restrictions on them which they neither like nor understand. It also came at the price set by Mel in burning the Weirwoods. They follow the strong, and right now Jon looks like swiss cheese. Basically, I disagree with those who think the wildlings in general are extremely pro-Jon. On the contrary, I think most are still cautious of him, and now that he’s in bad shape/not strong, I think they’ll go seek out Mance which is what Jon just proposed doing before getting stabbed. The wildlings wanted on the other side of the Wall, but they never wanted to defend it. Jon had to force them to do that so I don’t see them staying at the Wall let alone putting up a fight for a Wall which they hate the very idea of on behalf of a guy they were never sure about anyhow who now looks dead.

 

 

 

 

The wildlings will ride out to attack the Boltons.  There won't be too much of a fight between the Night's Watch and the wildlings as long as Bowen and his men don't try to stop them.  Yes, the NW has a duty to prevent the wildlings from attacking a noble house of the north but they are outnumbered in this case.  Best to let the wildling raiding party ride out and just send a warning to the Boltons.  Tell the Boltons that it was all Jon's doing, the Watch took no part.  

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Lollygag said:

Jon did let the wildlings through the Wall, but then he put a lot of restrictions on them which they neither like nor understand. It also came at the price set by Mel in burning the Weirwoods. They follow the strong, and right now Jon looks like swiss cheese. Basically, I disagree with those who think the wildlings in general are extremely pro-Jon. On the contrary, I think most are still cautious of him, and now that he’s in bad shape/not strong, I think they’ll go seek out Mance which is what Jon just proposed doing before getting stabbed. The wildlings wanted on the other side of the Wall, but they never wanted to defend it. Jon had to force them to do that so I don’t see them staying at the Wall let alone putting up a fight for a Wall which they hate the very idea of on behalf of a guy they were never sure about anyhow who now looks dead.  

I don't think the free folk are aware Mance is alive. Yes, the PL claims that he's in a cage. But all the free folk and nightswatchmen (and Stannis' men) saw 'Mance' burn and saw Jon give the order for the archers to turn him into a pincushion. None of these people have any reason to question what they saw w/ their own eyes. 

Jon doesn't tell Tormund about the switcheroo when he reads the PL. And Tormund's reaction is pretty much the reaction the rest of the free folk will have: he laughs and says it could be all lies, since 'Mance is clearly dead'. Now, Jon may have told Tormund about the glamor off-page; after all, they keep talking for two hours and we are not privy to their exchange. Still, when Jon reads the PL in the Shieldhall, there's no conversation after he's read the letter. He reads it, says he'll make Ramsay answer for his threats, asks if anyone will join him and the free folk go wild. Immediately afterwards Jon leaves the Shieldhall and gets stabbed. 

I said upthread that I think the free folk will go mental on the conspirators and that it will be a bloodbath. And I'll add something else in support of this... the free folk at the Shieldhall are already all riled up, ready for a fight. They will fall on Marsh & co in such a brutal way that Marsh will miss the good ol times w/ the Weeper!  

[Hugorfonics]

Question. Is Marsh in possession of the wildling children? The ones Tormund gave to Jon as a hostage

[Nevets]

3 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I’m thinking that the free folk or if you prefer wildlings outnumber the NW, but I can’t remember if they are armed. I am also unsure of how many men Selyse has brought to CB.  Merely some stuff rattling around in my brain that I hadn’t considered before.

"Queen Selyse descended on Castle Black with a retinue of ... knights, sworn swords, and men-at-arms fifty strong."  ADWD, Jon IX.  A fairly formidable force, if it wants to be.  It certainly won't support the mutineers.  Not sure if they would ally with the wildlings, though.  It is also unclear how much of the Night's Watch is loyal to Bowen Marsh, to Jon, or will simply go with whoever wins in the end.  Could get messy.

[Clegane'sPup]

Where to begin?   So much interesting information and so many reminders!    Thanks.        I hope people will continue their conversations with each other.   ing  the thread.

 

 

[kissdbyfire]

We don't have much info on the hostages Jon demanded of the free folk. We were told they'd be trained as any new recruit: at arms, mucking stables, helping in the kitchens etc. So, based on that I'd say they are housed where recruits are normally housed. There will be black brothers close by, but whether these brothers are loyal to Jon or to Marsh is anyone's guess. My own guess is that the majority of crows at CB will side w/ Jon, therefore it's more likely that whoever is w/near the hostages will too. 

I keep seeing people claiming "Marsh has the hostages (and because of this the free folk won't engage the conspirators)", but that's speculation, and an unlikely one at that. I mean, do people think Marsh has 100 kids locked up in a room or something?

[Light a wight tonight]

34 minutes ago, Nevets said:

"Queen Selyse descended on Castle Black with a retinue of ... knights, sworn swords, and men-at-arms fifty strong."  ADWD, Jon IX.  A fairly formidable force, if it wants to be.  It certainly won't support the mutineers.  Not sure if they would ally with the wildlings, though.  It is also unclear how much of the Night's Watch is loyal to Bowen Marsh, to Jon, or will simply go with whoever wins in the end.  Could get messy.

Jon had been north of the Wall ranging and fought in the defense against the Thenns and Mance's horde. Marsh is the Quartermaster. I'd say that the rank and file of the Watch would have more respect for Jon.

[Clegane'sPup]

2 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

Mel became a POV character and she is still at the Wall. She's going to be like Barristan over in Meereen.  

This is one of the things that has been bugging me. Maybe it just me, but I'm thinking someone has to tell the accounting. If not Mel, its gonna be Jon.

Just chatting now, not directed at you. There is bound to be some struggle between the different factions since the attack on the LC happened in an open space and the noise made by Wun Wun roused people from their quarters.

But I digress.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

"Queen Selyse descended on Castle Black with a retinue of ... knights, sworn swords, and men-at-arms fifty strong."  ADWD, Jon IX.

Thanks.

[Makk]

I think the the wildlings easily outnumber the nightwatch and I don't believe the nightwatch will just completely fall into line behind Bowan Marsh either. Particularly when they are outnumbered. So I don't think there will really be a coup at all. Hard to know what role Mel will play particularly if she believes Stannis is dead, she could do something completely ill-considered.

[kissdbyfire]

13 minutes ago, Makk said:

I think the the wildlings easily outnumber the nightwatch and I don't believe the nightwatch will just completely fall into line behind Bowan Marsh either. Particularly when they are outnumbered. So I don't think there will really be a coup at all. Hard to know what role Mel will play particularly if she believes Stannis is dead, she could do something completely ill-considered.

I agree. I think Mel is the wild card here... That said, she is one of the people Ramsay (or fill in w/ your favourite suspect) asks for in the PL, so I find it extremely unlikely that she will side w/ Marsh & co. That and the fact that she's really starting to realise that there's more to Jon than meets the eye.