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Clegane'sPup

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14 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I agree. I think Mel is the wild card here... That said, she is one of the people Ramsay (or fill in w/ your favourite suspect) asks for in the PL, so I find it extremely unlikely that she will side w/ Marsh & co. That and the fact that she's really starting to realise that there's more to Jon than meets the eye. 

She explicitly tells Jon that he will have need of her as early as Jon I, ADWD 3. I'd freakin' die of shock if she threw in with Marsh and his lot. Mel can command the queen's men to do her bidding. At the end of the day, it's her they follow, not Selyse, so they will fall wherever she tells them to fall.

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2 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

She explicitly tells Jon that he will have need of her as early as Jon I, ADWD 3. I'd freakin' die of shock if she threw in with Marsh and his lot. Mel can command the queen's men to do her bidding. At the end of the day, it's her they follow, not Selyse, so they will fall wherever she tells them to fall.

Oh definitely. But I still consider her the wild[est] card in this scenario. If for no other reason, because she is not the sharpest tool in the box. Powerful, yes. Deceitful, most definitely. Smart? Not very. 

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3 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don't think the free folk are aware Mance is alive. Yes, the PL claims that he's in a cage. But all the free folk and nightswatchmen (and Stannis' men) saw 'Mance' burn and saw Jon give the order for the archers to turn him into a pincushion. None of these people have any reason to question what they saw w/ their own eyes. 

Jon doesn't tell Tormund about the switcheroo when he reads the PL. And Tormund's reaction is pretty much the reaction the rest of the free folk will have: he laughs and says it could be all lies, since 'Mance is clearly dead'. Now, Jon may have told Tormund about the glamor off-page; after all, they keep talking for two hours and we are not privy to their exchange. Still, when Jon reads the PL in the Shieldhall, there's no conversation after he's read the letter. He reads it, says he'll make Ramsay answer for his threats, asks if anyone will join him and the free folk go wild. Immediately afterwards Jon leaves the Shieldhall and gets stabbed. 

I said upthread that I think the free folk will go mental on the conspirators and that it will be a bloodbath. And I'll add something else in support of this... the free folk at the Shieldhall are already all riled up, ready for a fight. They will fall on Marsh & co in such a brutal way that Marsh will miss the good ol times w/ the Weeper!  

It is weird. Announcing that Mance was alive should have resulted in confusion but there was none in the wildlings' reaction. Their enthusiasm for going to Winterfell doesn't make sense unless they believe Mance is alive. Mance is up to ~something~ and this might be part of that. Unless someone can come up with a reason for the wildlings actually caring about Winterfell to that degree beyond Mance, I have to assume that Mance is the reason for the enthusiasm.

ADWD Jon XII

"No. I ride south." Then Jon read them the letter Ramsay Snow had written.

The Shieldhall went mad.

Every man began to shout at once. They leapt to their feet, shaking fists. So much for the calming power of comfortable benches. Swords were brandished, axes smashed against shields. Jon Snow looked to Tormund. The Giantsbane sounded his horn once more, twice as long and twice as loud as the first time.

"The Night's Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms," Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. "It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.

"The Night's Watch will make for Hardhome. I ride to Winterfell alone, unless …" Jon paused. "… is there any man here who will come stand with me?"

The roar was all he could have hoped for, the tumult so loud that the two old shields tumbled from the walls. Soren Shieldbreaker was on his feet, the Wanderer as well. Toregg the Tall, Brogg, Harle the Huntsman and Harle the Handsome both, Ygon Oldfather, Blind Doss, even the Great Walrus. I have my swords, thought Jon Snow, and we are coming for you, Bastard.

 

I just don't see a big rise-up, partially because we now have a POV problem and also because in a crowd like that with the Wun-Wun/Patrek diversion, no one is going to understand just what went on. Wyck's not me hand's up movement indicates that Marsh will try to muddy the waters and with such a large crowd, it shouldn't be hard. Also, it seemed to me like Wun-Wun/Patrek pretty much shocked all kinds of things out of the crowd, including bloodlust.

Adding: and as I said earlier, all of that back and forth between Marsh and Jon was unnecessarily if Marsh dies at this point.

 

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23 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

It is weird. Announcing that Mance was alive should have resulted in confusion but there was none in the wildlings' reaction. Their enthusiasm for going to Winterfell doesn't make sense unless they believe Mance is alive. Mance is up to ~something~ and this might be part of that. Unless someone can come up with a reason for the wildlings actually caring about Winterfell to that degree beyond Mance, I have to assume that Mance is the reason for the enthusiasm.

ADWD Jon XII

"No. I ride south." Then Jon read them the letter Ramsay Snow had written.

The Shieldhall went mad.

Every man began to shout at once. They leapt to their feet, shaking fists. So much for the calming power of comfortable benches. Swords were brandished, axes smashed against shields. Jon Snow looked to Tormund. The Giantsbane sounded his horn once more, twice as long and twice as loud as the first time.

"The Night's Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms," Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. "It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.

"The Night's Watch will make for Hardhome. I ride to Winterfell alone, unless …" Jon paused. "… is there any man here who will come stand with me?"

The roar was all he could have hoped for, the tumult so loud that the two old shields tumbled from the walls. Soren Shieldbreaker was on his feet, the Wanderer as well. Toregg the Tall, Brogg, Harle the Huntsman and Harle the Handsome both, Ygon Oldfather, Blind Doss, even the Great Walrus. I have my swords, thought Jon Snow, and we are coming for you, Bastard.

 

I just don't see a big rise-up, partially because we now have a POV problem and also because in a crowd like that with the Wun-Wun/Patrek diversion, no one is going to understand just what went on. Wyck's not me hand's up movement indicates that Marsh will try to muddy the waters and with such a large crowd, it shouldn't be hard. Also, it seemed to me like Wun-Wun/Patrek pretty much shocked all kinds of things out of the crowd, including bloodlust.

Adding: and as I said earlier, all of that back and forth between Marsh and Jon was unnecessarily if Marsh dies at this point.

 

The Boltons have a reputation, and not a good one. And w/ all the raiding south of the Wall, and w/ Mance being a former crow, there's no reason to think the free folk are unaware of this reputation. That's why they react the way they did IMO. They don't question anything in the PL... not the claim that Mance is in a cage for all the north to see, nor who the hell is Reek, nor anything really. My take is, while they "know" it's not Mance, they probably think it's someone being passed off as Mance, and in Bolton hands, and that's enough. Is it possible they know "Rattleshirt" and 6 of the spearwives went on some mission? Did anyone see them leave? Even if most are not super duper fond of Rattleshirt, he is still one of them. But even w/o Rattleshirt in the equation, someone is being passed off as Mance, and is now the bastard of Bolton's plaything. 

And Tormund was Mance's second, sorta, and if the free folk will follow anyone it will be him. 

Also, I don't think we will have a PoV problem. I mean, Martin will deal w/ that in a way that enables us to see whatever events he wants us to see. I don't recall it ever being said by Martin that Mel was a one time only thing, but he can give a PoV to anyone he wants. In fact, even if he said at one point that Mel was a one time deal, he can change his mind and decide she is the best option. 

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1 hour ago, Lollygag said:

Unless someone can come up with a reason for the wildlings actually caring about Winterfell to that degree beyond Mance, I have to assume that Mance is the reason for the enthusiasm.

I gotta agree.

 

 

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The first order of business is to get that giant under control.  A few lives may be lost in the process and it will take a few correctly placed arrows in the giant to do the job.  I believe the sworn brothers of the Night's Watch will support Bowen Marsh because they heard Jon's speech at the Shield Hall.  What Jon was doing is a clear violation of their rules.  So there will be no trouble for Marsh from the other brothers of the watch.  He may get some trouble from the wildlings but I doubt they will start a battle over the stabbing of Jon Snow.  The two best choices to replace Snowflake are Bowen Marsh and Ser Alliser Thorne.  While Thorne was not present during the take down of Jon Snow, I think he will agree with Marsh's decision after he hears what Jon had been up to and what Jon was about to do.   

 

 

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36 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Also, I don't think we will have a PoV problem. I mean, Martin will deal w/ that in a way that enables us to see whatever events he wants us to see. I don't recall it ever being said by Martin that Mel was a one time only thing, but he can give a PoV to anyone he wants. In fact, even if he said at one point that Mel was a one time deal, he can change his mind and decide she is the best option. 

Because you are amiable, I'm going going to go out on a limb, be easy with me, please. There is a POV problem both at the Wall and WF

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1 minute ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Because you are amiable, I'm going going to go out on a limb, be easy with me, please. There is a POV problem both at the Wall and WF

Well... there is the potential for a PoV problem. But ultimately, Martin can decide to do anything he pleases, pretty much. As long as it doesn't spoil things he doesn't want to reveal yet. So, even he he's said in the past that Mel would not get another chapter, he can change his mind. Or decide to give Selyse one, or Leathers, or whoever - I have never considered either Selyse or Leathers for a PoV but theirs were the first names to pop in my head. Winterfell is, IMO, trickier than the Wall in terms of PoV options. :dunno:

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28 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The Boltons have a reputation, and not a good one. And w/ all the raiding south of the Wall, and w/ Mance being a former crow, there's no reason to think the free folk are unaware of this reputation. That's why they react the way they did IMO. They don't question anything in the PL... not the claim that Mance is in a cage for all the north to see, nor who the hell is Reek, nor anything really. My take is, while they "know" it's not Mance, they probably think it's someone being passed off as Mance, and in Bolton hands, and that's enough. Is it possible they know "Rattleshirt" and 6 of the spearwives went on some mission? Did anyone see them leave? Even if most are not super duper fond of Rattleshirt, he is still one of them. But even w/o Rattleshirt in the equation, someone is being passed off as Mance, and is now the bastard of Bolton's plaything. 

And Tormund was Mance's second, sorta, and if the free folk will follow anyone it will be him. 

Also, I don't think we will have a PoV problem. I mean, Martin will deal w/ that in a way that enables us to see whatever events he wants us to see. I don't recall it ever being said by Martin that Mel was a one time only thing, but he can give a PoV to anyone he wants. In fact, even if he said at one point that Mel was a one time deal, he can change his mind and decide she is the best option. 

I don't think the Wildlings really care about the Boltons or the political situation. I think they just want to be safe and live the way they're used to living. If Mance went about acting out of character (beating the crap out of Jon for example which seems unlikely for Rattleshirt) and went around to everyone like, "hey, wanna see my new ruby from that weird red witch that I'm hanging out with a lot?" then he may have sewn some seeds of doubt among the wildlings. But this is a stretch for me so I don't know. I still have to go with Mance being the reason for their enthusiasm.

Following Tormund (I have questions about that in itself as Tormund seems tied more to Jon than Mance) would seem to give credit to the wildlings believing Mance is alive for me. It still doesn't account for that level of unquestioning enthusiasm and not going "whaaaaa?" when Ramsey brought up Mance and spearwives.

I can't find where it was said that Mel was a one-off, but I'm bad at finding those things. I remember clearly being very disappointed by that, so take it as you will. Hopefully someone can find something to clear that up. This may not convince anyone, but I'm still going with Mel being a one-off and with GRRM's claiming no more new POVs/culling POVs, and Mel being in the same category as LF/Varys in that she knows too much to be a regular POV for the readers. So I still see a POV problem. He can change his mind, but it really sounds like he won't without very good reason and basing theories on unsure POVs isn't the strongest grounding. I think the wildling arc will be carried on through Jon/Ghost and wildlings going to Winterfell.

All of this spins around for me:

· The Jon/Marsh discussions along with Bowen’s rather developed character makes no sense if he’s to die here. Thorne wanting Jon dead needed no such build-up. Too much time and detail went into this for Marsh to just get knocked off here.

· I don’t see how RLJ, KitN becomes relevant if he stays at the Wall. I also don’t see any plausible way Jon survives the Others successfully attacking which means he needs to come away from the Wall and I think it will look a lot like how Sam & Co left the Wall.

· It’s just too neat and tidy for me to deny that Bowen Marsh as the 999th LC makes Every.Wrong.Decision. in defending the Wall thus causing it to fall. And it’s already been all laid out for the reader clearing up the POV problem.

· The text which I sited up thread also points in this direction.

We’ll have to agree to disagree.

 

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49 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Well... there is the potential for a PoV problem. But ultimately, Martin can decide to do anything he pleases, pretty much. As long as it doesn't spoil things he doesn't want to reveal yet. So, even he he's said in the past that Mel would not get another chapter, he can change his mind. Or decide to give Selyse one, or Leathers, or whoever - I have never considered either Selyse or Leathers for a PoV but theirs were the first names to pop in my head. Winterfell is, IMO, trickier than the Wall in terms of PoV options. :dunno:

For some reason, I had assumed that Melisandre was in ADWD partly so that he could use her in TWOW without adding a POV, which he has said he won't do.  I am certainly not aware of any statement that she won't have one in TWOW.  I have always assumed she will have at least a couple

For possible POVs, I think Jeyne Poole will be arriving shortly after the stabbing.  As a person with no background knowledge, she would be perfect.  I don't think Jon will be gone all that long, though.

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Honestly, all people around the Wall at the time is meat for wighting. The climate is worsening, so I doubt they can effectively move south in force or in numbers in search for new places to stay, they can't possibly move north and the Wall itself is becoming a ground for free for all killing. If the Others do some reasoning, they would think, 'let's move these little monkeys south, where there are other little monkeys guarding a wall; logic says they flock together and then start killing each other; then it's a safe time for us to come in'. Only small pockets of humans will be able to escape south after the massacre. Hopefully Shireen among them.

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56 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

We’ll have to agree to disagree.

Well, we can on agree on this! :D :cheers:

 

16 minutes ago, Nevets said:

For some reason, I had assumed that Melisandre was in ADWD partly so that he could use her in TWOW without adding a POV, which he has said he won't do.  I am certainly not aware of any statement that she won't have one in TWOW.  I have always assumed she will have at least a couple

Same here. So I decided to dig around a bit and found this:

At the Guadalajara Book Festival, GRRM reported:

“I don’t plan to set any scenes in Asshai – at least not in the present book, but you may find out a little bit about it in future books. We do have one character who’s been there, of course, and that’s Melisandre. So, in the chapters from her thought, you may occasionally have her think back to her time in Asshai.

https://warsandpoliticsoficeandfire.wordpress.com/2016/07/12/the-ulimate-winds-of-winter-resource/

16 minutes ago, Nevets said:

For possible POVs, I think Jeyne Poole will be arriving shortly after the stabbing.  As a person with no background knowledge, she would be perfect.  I don't think Jon will be gone all that long, though.

:agree:

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The WW's won't be attacking the wall yet, because the situation at Hardhome has not ended, and that is where they are.  There is also still the Weepers group north of the wall.

What happens immediately probably does largely depend on who saw what and how loud they can yell it to everyone else.  If the Wildlings don't know who killed Jon, it would seem a bit weird to just attack the NW, especially since the two combatants everyone is watching is wildling vs Queensmen.

Yet if wildlings saw it and start pointing and yelling, I do think they would straight up attack the NWmen involved, and that other NWmen may then get involved as they would just think they are being attacked.

If I'm a Queensmen in this situation, I'm totally confused, and if I learn Jon died and have loyalty to Selyse, my objective is getting the hell out of there, because I don't consider the wildlings allies, and I don't consider the NW without Jon allies.  But does my loyalty lie with Selyse or Melisandre?  If it is with Mel, then even if I immediately run to Selyse and say we gotta go, if Mel comes in and says arm yourself and fight with the wildlings, then I guess I do it.

I guess what I'm trying to say is there are just too many variables to really know what is going to happen, other than to say the NW itself lacks the power to attack the wildlings.  The wildlings may or may not attack the NW, and the Queensmen could take either side or no side.

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1 minute ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

What happens immediately probably does largely depend on who saw what and how loud they can yell it to everyone else.  If the Wildlings don't know who killed Jon, it would seem a bit weird to just attack the NW, especially since the two combatants everyone is watching is wildling vs Queensmen

Yup. And Leathers is there, and I think Mully and... the Flea? Rory? Probably more. And Jon thinks about men pouring in from the surrounding buildings, and takes note there are free folk, crows, and queen's men. Should be very interesting. 

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48 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:
1 hour ago, Nevets said:

For some reason, I had assumed that Melisandre was in ADWD partly so that he could use her in TWOW without adding a POV, which he has said he won't do.  I am certainly not aware of any statement that she won't have one in TWOW.  I have always assumed she will have at least a couple

Same here. So I decided to dig around a bit and found this:

At the Guadalajara Book Festival, GRRM reported:

“I don’t plan to set any scenes in Asshai – at least not in the present book, but you may find out a little bit about it in future books. We do have one character who’s been there, of course, and that’s Melisandre. So, in the chapters from her thought, you may occasionally have her think back to her time in Asshai.

https://warsandpoliticsoficeandfire.wordpress.com/2016/07/12/the-ulimate-winds-of-winter-resource/

Thanks for this. I'm sure I recall correctly that she was to only be a one-off because everyone perceived her as too all-powerful and too evil and this needed corrected. But my source must have been bad or GRRM has since changed his mind.

As a POV for any post-attack battle, she still poses problems for any situation which shows any complexity. I don't recall reading where she knows the names of the regular wildlings to be able to recount any such action in any detail. Likewise the Northerners. I have to think she knows all of the Queensmen though.

And of course my mind is still unchanged as to whether there will be any battle of significance at all.  :D

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Okay htf did a poster travel from my opening post to a book festival ?

Bejebeus.

Did I freking ask about WW? No, I did not.

I asked a simple question---- wtf is in control of CB now that LC Snow has been tenderized.

 

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Just now, Clegane'sPup said:

I asked a simple question---- wtf is in control of CB now that LC Snow has been tenderized. 

 

As the ranking member of the NW at CB, that would be Bowen Marsh. Marsh has been treated as #2 throughout ADWD.

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9 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I asked a simple question---- wtf is in control of CB now that LC Snow has been tenderized

Who is in control? Best answer I have for this is, at the moment, no one. Once we get TWoW and see what really happens in the aftermath of the assassination attempt and how it all goes down, it will be easier to answer the question.

As you can see, there can be several answers to your question, but it's all speculation. @Lollygag brings up the fact that Marsh was 2nd in command and therefore is in control now. I don't agree. Yes, if we stick to the NW hierarchy, Marsh would be the obvious answer. But this is not a normal situation... not anywhere near normal, in fact. The 2nd in command has just stabbed his LC; he has other crows on his side, but how many is anyone's guess; there are thousands of free folk present. And on and on. So, yeah, in control? No one. And no, I don't mean Arya! :P

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1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Who is in control? Best answer I have for this is, at the moment, no one. Once we get TWoW and see what really happens in the aftermath of the assassination attempt and how it all goes down, it will be easier to answer the question.

As you can see, there can be several answers to your question, but it's all speculation. @Lollygag brings up the fact that Marsh was 2nd in command and therefore is in control now. I don't agree. Yes, if we stick to the NW hierarchy, Marsh would be the obvious answer. But this is not a normal situation... not anywhere near normal, in fact. The 2nd in command has just stabbed his LC; he has other crows on his side, but how many is anyone's guess; there are thousands of free folk present. And on and on. So, yeah, in control? No one. And no, I don't mean Arya! :P

I apologize to all for the extreme sarcasm I used.

Agreed no one is in charge at CB for the moment.

Gotta go earn my paycheck. :bawl:

 

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