Meanwhile back at the Wall

[HexMachina]

12 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The WW's won't be attacking the wall yet, because the situation at Hardhome has not ended, and that is where they are.  There is also still the Weepers group north of the wall.

What happens immediately probably does largely depend on who saw what and how loud they can yell it to everyone else.  If the Wildlings don't know who killed Jon, it would seem a bit weird to just attack the NW, especially since the two combatants everyone is watching is wildling vs Queensmen.

Yet if wildlings saw it and start pointing and yelling, I do think they would straight up attack the NWmen involved, and that other NWmen may then get involved as they would just think they are being attacked.

If I'm a Queensmen in this situation, I'm totally confused, and if I learn Jon died and have loyalty to Selyse, my objective is getting the hell out of there, because I don't consider the wildlings allies, and I don't consider the NW without Jon allies.  But does my loyalty lie with Selyse or Melisandre?  If it is with Mel, then even if I immediately run to Selyse and say we gotta go, if Mel comes in and says arm yourself and fight with the wildlings, then I guess I do it.

I guess what I'm trying to say is there are just too many variables to really know what is going to happen, other than to say the NW itself lacks the power to attack the wildlings.  The wildlings may or may not attack the NW, and the Queensmen could take either side or no side.

This is pretty interesting. For some reason (dunno why, seems stupidly obvious now!) I never considered 5e “who actually saw what happened?” Angle before. With so much chaos and confusion and so many people rushing out into the courtyard and the main focus being on a rampaging giant, it doesn’t seem so implausible that someone’s other than Marsh and the conspirators could be used tas a scapegoat for the murder. Who is to say how much time passes before the carnage settles and someone notices the LC is stuck full of holes. Could be instantly, could be half an hour...what happens will very much depend on who’s saw what I think. Could make for an interesting dynamic if Marsh is able to deny involvement while Jon is comatose, and to have Jon come back to a Wall with Marsh new charge or still in his current position of authority. 

[Lollygag]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Who is in control? Best answer I have for this is, at the moment, no one. Once we get TWoW and see what really happens in the aftermath of the assassination attempt and how it all goes down, it will be easier to answer the question.

As you can see, there can be several answers to your question, but it's all speculation. @Lollygag brings up the fact that Marsh was 2nd in command and therefore is in control now. I don't agree. Yes, if we stick to the NW hierarchy, Marsh would be the obvious answer. But this is not a normal situation... not anywhere near normal, in fact. The 2nd in command has just stabbed his LC; he has other crows on his side, but how many is anyone's guess; there are thousands of free folk present. And on and on. So, yeah, in control? No one. And no, I don't mean Arya!

I do agree that this isn't one of those clear answers but maybe in a different way. I'd be inclined to agree more *if* we had any indication whatsoever that anyone has actually witnessed the stabbing and as of the end of ADWD, there's zero signs of the attack having been witnessed- no yelling, no intervening, no joining in. Rather difficult for me to believe that but there it is. All Marsh and Wyck have to do is blend back into the crowd and then when someone else finds Jon, point the finger elsewhere.

ACOK Tyrion I

"In the streets, they call it the Red Messenger," Varys said. "They say it comes as a herald before a king, to warn of fire and blood to follow." The eunuch rubbed his powdered hands together. "May I leave you with a bit of a riddle, Lord Tyrion?" He did not wait for an answer. "In a room sit three great men, a king, a priest, and a rich man with his gold. Between them stands a sellsword, a little man of common birth and no great mind. Each of the great ones bids him slay the other two. 'Do it,' says the king, 'for I am your lawful ruler.' 'Do it,' says the priest, 'for I command you in the names of the gods.' 'Do it,' says the rich man, 'and all this gold shall be yours.' So tell me—who lives and who dies?" Bowing deeply, the eunuch hurried from the common room on soft slippered feet.

ACOK Tyrion II

Varys covered his mouth with his hand. "You are very cruel to say so. One last matter. Lady Tanda gave a small supper last night. I have the menu and the guest list for your inspection. When the wine was poured, Lord Gyles rose to lift a cup to the king, and Ser Balon Swann was heard to remark, 'We'll need three cups for that.' Many laughed . . ."

The King was Joff, the rich man was Tywin and Tyrion who was acting while Tywin was at war, and Cersei was being compared to a goddess during these times.

At CB, we had Jon who was “King” of the Wall, Stannis who was rich in men, and of course our priest is Mel. What happens in the immediate aftermath of Jon’s stabbing may continue this triad formation of the “King” in name, the one with the money/resources and the one who inspires following in form of a priest(ess) or god(ess).

 

[Azarial]

We do know that this took place outside of Hardins tower where the spear wives are. I'm sure some of them were at the shield hall, but since we know Patrick was trying to steal Val that means at least she was there and any spear wives present would follow her, likely the northern women sent to be wet nurses, and either Ed Tollett and/or Iron Emmet all of those people are loyal to Jon. So at least there is a group in place to take and guard his body to prevent it from being burned.

They should also have seen that Jon was just attacked by other members of the nights watch. And no matter what he's done that isn't protocol. Even a Lord commander is expected to do proper executions and state the crimes, and in the past with problem Lord commanders the norm is to contact the warden of the north so that they can deal with the issue. (Something that I personally think Jon wanted to happen, as I believe he was laying a trap for the Boltons in order to defend the wall via ambush, as he has clearly thought in the past this was the only way to defend the wall from a southern threat, and we know he believes one mans honor should be sacrificed for the greater good, and that Marsh just messed up his plan)

Any northmen at the wall would be with Jon supporters as he's a Stark bastard and they know the Boltons reputation and we know that they are more apposed to the Boltons than wildlings based on what we've seen of them working with Stannis and the talk with Jon on the wall earlier, so I think the Mountain clans will come into play as well as they seemed to be lurking nearby, and Jon saw northmen descend, and I suspect that is them.

With the letter stating that Stannis is dead, a conflict between the spear wives and Queens men over the baby should not be overlooked in the aftermath either. Val seems quite protective of Monster, and Mel or the queen likely wants to burn him to try and bring back Stannis.

The men with the stab happy group, are the main three Jon saw leave the Sheild hall, and the ones he's been arguing with all along and the builders, who seem to be following their leader and are the main group of brothers that are being forced to work with the free folk. So those are the guys that are for sure on that side, as well as the interim commander at Eastwatch was said to be on of Allisters men. I think the attack was pre-planned. (I just read this chapter two nights ago) Ghost bit at Mully, but did not show any aggression towards Satin. This to me says his aggression was directed, and that the shield hall simply sped things up, but that they were planning to do this regardless. I suspect that is why protocol wasn't followed as when the plan was hatched they didn't know of Jon doing anything against his vows, simply things they didn't agree with and they reacted based on their hatred and fear of the free folk. I could be wrong, clearly anything is speculation at this point, but that is the impression I got.

To me this shows a much larger pro Jon faction, in the immediate area, and those apposed may retreat to Eastwatch? That's what I'd do if I were them, and Bowen is a coward after the bridge of skulls so fleeing seems likely. So any conflict will likely be over the baby. That is my best guess. I could see Iron Emmet, Tormund and Val taking control of the wall. Possibly Norrey and Wull throwing in with the loyal brothers to restore order.

[kissdbyfire]

It may be that my interpretation is off, but in my mind there is no way there were no witnesses that are loyal to Jon, like Leathers or Horse or Rory and/or others.

ADwD, Jon XIII

“Horse and Rory fell in beside Jon as he left the Shieldhall. I should talk with Melisandre after I see the queen, he thought. If she could see a raven in a storm, she can find Ramsay Snow for me. Then he heard the shouting … and a roar so loud it seemed to shake the Wall. “That come from Hardin’s Tower, m’lord,” Horse reported. He might have said more, but the scream cut him off.
Val, was Jon’s first thought. But that was no woman’s scream. That is a man in mortal agony. He broke into a run. Horse and Rory raced after him. “Is it wights?” asked Rory. Jon wondered. Could his corpses have escaped their chains?
The screaming had stopped by the time they came to Hardin’s Tower, but Wun Weg Wun Dar Wun was still roaring. The giant was dangling a bloody corpse by one leg, the same way Arya used to dangle her doll when she was small, swinging it like a morningstar when menaced by vegetables. Arya never tore her dolls to pieces, though. The dead man’s sword arm was yards away, the snow beneath it turning red.
“Let him go,” Jon shouted. “Wun Wun, let him go.”
Wun Wun did not hear or did not understand. The giant was bleeding himself, with sword cuts on his belly and his arm. He swung the dead knight against the grey stone of the tower, again and again and again, until the man’s head was red and pulpy as a summer melon. The knight’s cloak flapped in the cold air. Of white wool it had been, bordered in cloth-of-silver and patterned with blue stars. Blood and bone were flying everywhere.
Men poured from the surrounding keeps and towers. Northmen, free folk, queen’s men … “Form a line,” Jon Snow commanded them. “Keep them back. Everyone, but especially the queen’s men.” The dead man was Ser Patrek of King’s Mountain; his head was largely gone, but his heraldry was as distinctive as his face. Jon did not want to risk Ser Malegorn or Ser Brus or any of the queen’s other knights trying to avenge him.” 

Wun Weg Wun Dar Wun howled again and gave Ser Patrek’s other arm a twist and pull. It tore loose from his shoulder with a spray of bright red blood. Like a child pulling petals off a daisy, thought Jon. “Leathers, talk to him, calm him. The Old Tongue, he understands the Old Tongue. Keep back, the rest of you. Put away your steel, we’re scaring him.” Couldn’t they see the giant had been cut? Jon had to put an end to this or more men would die. They had no idea of Wun Wun’s strength. A horn, I need a horn. He saw the glint of steel, turned toward it. “No blades!” he screamed. “Wick, put that knife …”
 … away, he meant to say. When Wick Whittlestick slashed at his throat, the word turned into a grunt. Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. “Why?”

 

 

[kissdbyfire]

@Azarial, the spearwives are not there. Val is, but the spearwives are in another castle w/ Iron Emmett and Dolorous Edd. And actually, they're a tad late as well, like Morna and her group. And very likely arriving soon after the stabbing. 

[Azarial]

Ah, I thought Val and the spear wives were at the same place, but I have dysgraphia (related to dyslexia) that makes me very bad with names  I still think Val will have pull over the any wildlings present, it just means the numbers aren't quite as good as I'd hoped.

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, Azarial said:

Ah, I thought Val and the spear wives were at the same place, but I have dysgraphia (related to dyslexia) that makes me very bad with names  I still think Val will have pull over the any wildlings present, it just means the numbers aren't quite as good as I'd hoped.

It's good actually, that the spearwives and two of the best men Jon has on his side aren't there yet. IMO the pro-Jon faction currently at CB outnumber the pro-Marsh camp. By the time Iron Emmett, Dolorous Edd, hundreds of spearwives, and Morna and her people get to CB, the conspirators will be outnumbered further.

[HexMachina]

27 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

It may be that my interpretation is off, but in my mind there is no way there were no witnesses that are loyal to Jon, like Leathers or Horse or Rory and/or others.

ADwD, Jon XIII

“Horse and Rory fell in beside Jon as he left the Shieldhall. I should talk with Melisandre after I see the queen, he thought. If she could see a raven in a storm, she can find Ramsay Snow for me. Then he heard the shouting … and a roar so loud it seemed to shake the Wall. “That come from Hardin’s Tower, m’lord,” Horse reported. He might have said more, but the scream cut him off.
Val, was Jon’s first thought. But that was no woman’s scream. That is a man in mortal agony. He broke into a run. Horse and Rory raced after him. “Is it wights?” asked Rory. Jon wondered. Could his corpses have escaped their chains?
The screaming had stopped by the time they came to Hardin’s Tower, but Wun Weg Wun Dar Wun was still roaring. The giant was dangling a bloody corpse by one leg, the same way Arya used to dangle her doll when she was small, swinging it like a morningstar when menaced by vegetables. Arya never tore her dolls to pieces, though. The dead man’s sword arm was yards away, the snow beneath it turning red.
“Let him go,” Jon shouted. “Wun Wun, let him go.”
Wun Wun did not hear or did not understand. The giant was bleeding himself, with sword cuts on his belly and his arm. He swung the dead knight against the grey stone of the tower, again and again and again, until the man’s head was red and pulpy as a summer melon. The knight’s cloak flapped in the cold air. Of white wool it had been, bordered in cloth-of-silver and patterned with blue stars. Blood and bone were flying everywhere.
Men poured from the surrounding keeps and towers. Northmen, free folk, queen’s men … “Form a line,” Jon Snow commanded them. “Keep them back. Everyone, but especially the queen’s men.” The dead man was Ser Patrek of King’s Mountain; his head was largely gone, but his heraldry was as distinctive as his face. Jon did not want to risk Ser Malegorn or Ser Brus or any of the queen’s other knights trying to avenge him.” 

Wun Weg Wun Dar Wun howled again and gave Ser Patrek’s other arm a twist and pull. It tore loose from his shoulder with a spray of bright red blood. Like a child pulling petals off a daisy, thought Jon. “Leathers, talk to him, calm him. The Old Tongue, he understands the Old Tongue. Keep back, the rest of you. Put away your steel, we’re scaring him.” Couldn’t they see the giant had been cut? Jon had to put an end to this or more men would die. They had no idea of Wun Wun’s strength. A horn, I need a horn. He saw the glint of steel, turned toward it. “No blades!” he screamed. “Wick, put that knife …”
 … away, he meant to say. When Wick Whittlestick slashed at his throat, the word turned into a grunt. Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. “Why?”

 

 

It’s all down to interpretation really. I can see your point, and its certainly possible there are witnesses. YtTo me it all depends just how chaotic and busy the area is when all of those people rush outside as to whether or not those with Jon really see what went down

[Lollygag]

Even if there does turn out to be witnesses, there has to be a lot of witnesses for a large crowd to form a consensus and act on it and it seems that ship has already sailed as we get the very end of the attack in ADWD.

Even if there were a few witnesses who didn’t yell/couldn’t be heard, didn’t intervene/couldn’t intervene, it becomes a he said/she said situation where people will believe what they want. And Bowen Marsh, the mild-mannered NW traditionalist steward accountant going off the rails and stabbing the LC is a tough sell. It turns into a bit of a trial sort of situation where people make their accusations and cases and everyone decides who to believe. No doubt Marsh will point his own fingers and the wildlings are not popular.

 

[The Commentator]

23 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I am slightly familiar with the overall layout. My curiously is about manpower at the end of DwD.

Shadow Tower is at one end and Eastwatch at the other end with CB sorta in the middle.

Now that the LC is in limbo, if a fight/battle between the free folk, NW and Stannis’ men happens at CB who is going to seize control?

Does anyone have any guesstamations (estimates) about who outnumbers whom? And/or how this situation is going to be handled by the author?

I’m thinking that the free folk or if you prefer wildlings outnumber the NW, but I can’t remember if they are armed. I am also unsure of how many men Selyse has brought to CB.  Merely some stuff rattling around in my brain that I hadn’t considered before.

The wildlings are armed.  They were preparing to go to war with the Boltons, which means they were as armed as they could be.  Bowen Marsh already started taking steps to control Jon's damage by killing him.  However, that may not be enough to stop the wildlings from attacking the Boltons.  Tormund could end up leading the attack.  Bowen Marsh should send a message to Ramsay and condemn the actions of their former lord commander.  The NW is not responsible for what Jon did.  

The knights with Selyse will have already started weighing their options.  They may turn Stan's family, Mel, and Val to the Boltons, per the request in the Pink Letter.  Some will try and work out a deal so they can get out of this mess with their lives and maybe a little bit more.  This may be one possible explanation for why Patrek went to see Val.  Either to comply with the Pink Letter or take her away for himself.  I know, it doesn't make too much sense, Patrek should be thinking about saving his own bacon but a horny dude can get his priorities mixed up.

 

[aryagonnakill#2]

47 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

It may be that my interpretation is off, but in my mind there is no way there were no witnesses that are loyal to Jon, like Leathers or Horse or Rory and/or others.

ADwD, Jon XIII

“Horse and Rory fell in beside Jon as he left the Shieldhall. I should talk with Melisandre after I see the queen, he thought. If she could see a raven in a storm, she can find Ramsay Snow for me. Then he heard the shouting … and a roar so loud it seemed to shake the Wall. “That come from Hardin’s Tower, m’lord,” Horse reported. He might have said more, but the scream cut him off.
Val, was Jon’s first thought. But that was no woman’s scream. That is a man in mortal agony. He broke into a run. Horse and Rory raced after him. “Is it wights?” asked Rory. Jon wondered. Could his corpses have escaped their chains?
The screaming had stopped by the time they came to Hardin’s Tower, but Wun Weg Wun Dar Wun was still roaring. The giant was dangling a bloody corpse by one leg, the same way Arya used to dangle her doll when she was small, swinging it like a morningstar when menaced by vegetables. Arya never tore her dolls to pieces, though. The dead man’s sword arm was yards away, the snow beneath it turning red.
“Let him go,” Jon shouted. “Wun Wun, let him go.”
Wun Wun did not hear or did not understand. The giant was bleeding himself, with sword cuts on his belly and his arm. He swung the dead knight against the grey stone of the tower, again and again and again, until the man’s head was red and pulpy as a summer melon. The knight’s cloak flapped in the cold air. Of white wool it had been, bordered in cloth-of-silver and patterned with blue stars. Blood and bone were flying everywhere.
Men poured from the surrounding keeps and towers. Northmen, free folk, queen’s men … “Form a line,” Jon Snow commanded them. “Keep them back. Everyone, but especially the queen’s men.” The dead man was Ser Patrek of King’s Mountain; his head was largely gone, but his heraldry was as distinctive as his face. Jon did not want to risk Ser Malegorn or Ser Brus or any of the queen’s other knights trying to avenge him.” 

Wun Weg Wun Dar Wun howled again and gave Ser Patrek’s other arm a twist and pull. It tore loose from his shoulder with a spray of bright red blood. Like a child pulling petals off a daisy, thought Jon. “Leathers, talk to him, calm him. The Old Tongue, he understands the Old Tongue. Keep back, the rest of you. Put away your steel, we’re scaring him.” Couldn’t they see the giant had been cut? Jon had to put an end to this or more men would die. They had no idea of Wun Wun’s strength. A horn, I need a horn. He saw the glint of steel, turned toward it. “No blades!” he screamed. “Wick, put that knife …”
 … away, he meant to say. When Wick Whittlestick slashed at his throat, the word turned into a grunt. Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. “Why?”

 

 

Well, if those most loyal to Jon followed his orders and were in fact facing away to stop people from coming close, and leathers was moving closer to Wun Wun, then none of them may have seen anything.

[The Commentator]

I will be surprised if Bowen Marsh doesn't own up to executing Jon.  He is a man of duty and that was what he did.  For the Watch.  He stopped an erratic officer from doing further damage to the NW that they all serve.  Jon's guilt is public knowledge after he made that speech in the meeting hall.  I don't think Bowen Marsh will have any problems from the other crows.  

[kissdbyfire]

34 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

It’s all down to interpretation really. I can see your point, and its certainly possible there are witnesses. YtTo me it all depends just how chaotic and busy the area is when all of those people rush outside as to whether or not those with Jon really see what went down

 

31 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

Even if there does turn out to be witnesses, there has to be a lot of witnesses for a large crowd to form a consensus and act on it and it seems that ship has already sailed as we get the very end of the attack in ADWD.

Even if there were a few witnesses who didn’t yell/couldn’t be heard, didn’t intervene/couldn’t intervene, it becomes a he said/she said situation where people will believe what they want. And Bowen Marsh, the mild-mannered NW traditionalist steward accountant going off the rails and stabbing the LC is a tough sell. It turns into a bit of a trial sort of situation where people make their accusations and cases and everyone decides who to believe. No doubt Marsh will point his own fingers and the wildlings are not popular.

 

 

17 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Well, if those most loyal to Jon followed his orders and were in fact facing away to stop people from coming close, and leathers was moving closer to Wun Wun, then none of them may have seen anything.

Maybe the way this scene plays out in my head is quite different than in most readers'? 

I think it was and will continue to be quite chaotic as it develops. But to me all of this (the quote I posted above) happens very quickly IMO. From Jon stepping out of the Shieldhall w/ Rory and Horse and running to Hardin's (w/ Rory and Horse on his heels) to the actual stabbing; very quickly. The whole thing plays out (up to the stabbing) in a matter of minutes, again, IMO. I have read that scene gods know how many times by now, and not once has it struck me any other way. 

So, I don't really see any discussions happening, no one is going to demand an explanation, there won't be much finger-pointing, etc. There's a bunch of men surrounding Jon, Marsh & co, Rory, Horse etc. More are coming from all sides, very likely from the Shieldhall as well. Lots of yelling, blood, Jon shanked, bleeding n the snow, and people will just... react. 

[HexMachina]

5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

 

 

Maybe the way this scene plays out in my head is quite different than in most readers'? 

I think it was and will continue to be quite chaotic as it develops. But to me all of this (the quote I posted above) happens very quickly IMO. From Jon stepping out of the Shieldhall w/ Rory and Horse and running to Hardin's (w/ Rory and Horse on his heels) to the actual stabbing; very quickly. The whole thing plays out (up to the stabbing) in a matter of minutes, again, IMO. I have read that scene gods know how many times by now, and not once has it struck me any other way. 

So, I don't really see any discussions happening, no one is going to demand an explanation, there won't be much finger-pointing, etc. There's a bunch of men surrounding Jon, Marsh & co, Rory, Horse etc. More are coming from all sides, very likely from the Shieldhall as well. Lots of yelling, blood, Jon shanked, bleeding n the snow, and people will just... react. 

I always read it as you have done in the past too. This idea is kinda new to me but I found it interesting. Basically what I’m thinking that makes the idea of no witnesses plausible is that the situation is comparable to a riot or something. People pouring into the courtyard from all sides, shouting, screaming, roaring giant, people pulling swords. With so much going on it would be easy to overlook the LC for a matter of seconds (I too read this scene playing out very quickly) and not realise exactly who stabbed him.

So for me it’s not that there is no one around Jon, it’s that there are too many, which adds to the confusion and obscures things.

But as I said, I always read it your way in the past, this was just an interesting new idea for me

[Azarial]

10 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

I will be surprised if Bowen Marsh doesn't own up to executing Jon.  He is a man of duty and that was what he did.  For the Watch.  He stopped an erratic officer from doing further damage to the NW that they all serve.  Jon's guilt is public knowledge after he made that speech in the meeting hall.  I don't think Bowen Marsh will have any problems from the other crows.  

It all depends on how they perceive the events though. It's no where near as clear cut as you seem to believe it is. Remember he read the note, that was as far as those present were concerned, likely to seem full of crazy accusations and threats. They saw Mance die, so that part of the letter is clearly a lie as far as they know, they don't have his bride, they don't have who whatever a Reek is. The Lord Commander never left the wall, so he couldn't have stolen them. The whole thing sounds like the ravings of a madman when looked at based on the information they have.

You can't base the reactions of the nights watch on what we as readers know of Mance and Mel's actions, as they don't know any of that stuff. To them it sounds like a mad man is planning to attack the watch. The watches neutrality is a two way street, and as far as those present can tell the Boltons plan to violate it, and the Lord Commander is dealing with an open threat. (The secret Mance plot is irrelevant as it's secret, and the only person who knows about the spear wives is Ed, who doesn't seem to be present) So all the he's gone off the rails stuff isn't how it's likely to be viewed by the general population, you are using your knowledge to decide their reaction, not their knowledge. And as always our knowledge is far greater, and we need to remember that when trying to determine future events.

If you were in the nights watch and you saw Mance die, have no wife present at the wall, no Reek, and the Lord commander has been making his daily rounds talking to everyone at the wall, so clearly hasn't left and you heard a letter saying all those things what would think? Because to me, the nights watch should be on Jon's side based on that, or at the very least very confused and not thinking he should have been stabbed to death for??? Honestly what do they think he could have done based on that?

[The Commentator]

3 minutes ago, Azarial said:

It all depends on how they perceive the events though. It's no where near as clear cut as you seem to believe it is. Remember he read the note, that was as far as those present were concerned, likely to seem full of crazy accusations and threats. They saw Mance die, so that part of the letter is clearly a lie as far as they know, they don't have his bride, they don't have who whatever a Reek is. The Lord Commander never left the wall, so he couldn't have stolen them. The whole thing sounds like the ravings of a madman when looked at based on the information they have.

You can't base the reactions of the nights watch on what we as readers know of Mance and Mel's actions, as they don't know any of that stuff. To them it sounds like a mad man is planning to attack the watch. The watches neutrality is a two way street, and as far as those present can tell the Boltons plan to violate it, and the Lord Commander is dealing with an open threat. (The secret Mance plot is irrelevant as it's secret, and the only person who knows about the spear wives is Ed, who doesn't seem to be present) So all the he's gone off the rails stuff isn't how it's likely to be viewed by the general population, you are using your knowledge to decide their reaction, not their knowledge. And as always our knowledge is far greater, and we need to remember that when trying to determine future events.

If you were in the nights watch and you saw Mance die, have no wife present at the wall, no Reek, and the Lord commander has been making his daily rounds talking to everyone at the wall, so clearly hasn't left and you heard a letter saying all those things what would think? Because to me, the nights watch should be on Jon's side based on that, or at the very least very confused and not thinking he should have been stabbed to death for??? Honestly what do they think he could have done based on that?

The Pink Letter was pretty informative.  The audience now know Jon allowed Mance to walk.  Which earned him some love from the wildlings but hate from the men of the watch.  Remember, Mance was a deserter and he was considered an enemy of the watch.  The letter spells out that Jon sent Mance to Winterfell, again, this is a violation of their oaths.

Quote

You told the world you burned the king beyond the wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

Jon follows that up by announcing he will lead the wildlings to attack the Boltons.  Yeah, I think any man of the Night's Watch would have a problem with Jon and they will understand why Bowen Marsh had to do what he did.

[kissdbyfire]

2 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

I always read it as you have done in the past too. This idea is kinda new to me but I found it interesting. Basically what I’m thinking that makes the idea of no witnesses plausible is that the situation is comparable to a riot or something. People pouring into the courtyard from all sides, shouting, screaming, roaring giant, people pulling swords. With so much going on it would be easy to overlook the LC for a matter of seconds (I too read this scene playing out very quickly) and not realise exactly who stabbed him.

So for me it’s not that there is no one around Jon, it’s that there are too many, which adds to the confusion and obscures things.

But as I said, I always read it your way in the past, this was just an interesting new idea for me

Yeah, I agree this is possible. I could see a scenario where no one knows for sure what happened and no one is certain of what is actually going on. After all, we have Wun Wun and ser Patrek. I mean, could men loyal to Jon just assume that the Queen's Men attacked Jon in retaliation for what happened to Patrek? And there are other possibilities, too. 

But the one thing I don't see happening at all is any type of de-escalation. Explanations, negotiations, talks, whatever, I don't think the situation as it is (immediately following the stabbing) has room for that to happen. That's why I think it will be a bloodbath. And maybe it will be those loyal to Jon - northerners, crows, free folk - against Marsh and his cronies, or maybe things get even more chaotic and it will be everyone against everyone else, no one being really sure why they're fighting against x, y or z. But then that brings me back to the free folk and any others loyal to Jon managing to take control of the situation eventually because they outnumber the rest.

[kissdbyfire]

14 minutes ago, Azarial said:

Remember he read the note, that was as far as those present were concerned, likely to seem full of crazy accusations and threats. They saw Mance die, so that part of the letter is clearly a lie as far as they know, they don't have his bride, they don't have who whatever a Reek is. The Lord Commander never left the wall, so he couldn't have stolen them. The whole thing sounds like the ravings of a madman when looked at based on the information they have.

This. I've already banged on and on about it, but glad to see at least one person here sees it the same way!

And great post overall, I agree w/ the points you made.

[Lollygag]

18 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

 

 

Maybe the way this scene plays out in my head is quite different than in most readers'? 

I think it was and will continue to be quite chaotic as it develops. But to me all of this (the quote I posted above) happens very quickly IMO. From Jon stepping out of the Shieldhall w/ Rory and Horse and running to Hardin's (w/ Rory and Horse on his heels) to the actual stabbing; very quickly. The whole thing plays out (up to the stabbing) in a matter of minutes, again, IMO. I have read that scene gods know how many times by now, and not once has it struck me any other way. 

So, I don't really see any discussions happening, no one is going to demand an explanation, there won't be much finger-pointing, etc. There's a bunch of men surrounding Jon, Marsh & co, Rory, Horse etc. More are coming from all sides, very likely from the Shieldhall as well. Lots of yelling, blood, Jon shanked, bleeding n the snow, and people will just... react. 

I used to see it that way until I came upon the maybe foreshadowing posted upthread along with some other things and reread the scene with that in mind.

There's just no indication that anyone has seen anything thus what can they react to? Marsh & Wyck will likely slip back into the crowd, so all there is is Jon on the ground. Who do they lash out against?

And while those who are trying to get the situation under control are hyped up on adrenaline thus more apt to just react if they do have to something to react to, most of the crowd looks to be the opposite: they are in shock from Wun-Wun and Patrek and shock runs contrary to reacting.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

There are more people converging toward Castle Black than Morna and Iron Emmett. 

I don't even know if this should be spoiler tagged at this point;

Spoiler

The Theon chapter in WoW takes place before Jon's stabbing. Aly Mormont is headed to the Wall with the Night's Watchmen scouts who brought Tycho and Theon to Stannis.

She could very well be in possession of some important information from her mother with whom it seems she has communicated. And who knows what the Flint and the Norrey know. 

Robin Ryger and Desmond Grell should be arriving at the Wall shortly as well. What kind of information did Edmure share with them before Riverrun surrendered to Jaime? And they could be arriving with men from Eastwatch since they were traveling by ship.