Meanwhile back at the Wall

[Azarial]

45 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

The Pink Letter was pretty informative.  The audience now know Jon allowed Mance to walk.  Which earned him some love from the wildlings but hate from the men of the watch.  Remember, Mance was a deserter and he was considered an enemy of the watch.  The letter spells out that Jon sent Mance to Winterfell, again, this is a violation of their oaths.

Jon follows that up by announcing he will lead the wildlings to attack the Boltons.  Yeah, I think any man of the Night's Watch would have a problem with Jon and they will understand why Bowen Marsh had to do what he did.

But it's not informative at all. If you saw a man die with your own eyes, then a letter arrived saying he was alive (when none of these guys have seen a glamour or resurrection other than the wights), then that letter goes on to say at least two or three other things that you know are false, based on seeing with your own eyes that no one is there and Lord Commander never left you'd believe it? Because the author shows us, and Jon, through Tormunds reaction when he read it to him, that most people wouldn't. 

Why believe a piece of paper over what you saw with your own eyes? You are using knowledge of glamour and Mel that readers have, but Night's watch members do not, to form your opinion. All they know is they saw one thing and a piece of paper written by a stranger says something else.

As for the other part, if Mance chose to return and follow orders Jon as Lord Commander is within his rights to pardon him. No treason there, but that's irrelevant. When he was killed he was Stannis's prisoner, Jon wasn't even allowed to speak with him so how could he be to blame for that? And the letter saying Jon sent him there to steal his wife is a completely false statement, as all readers should know. Jon told Mel he would allow HER to send him to get Arya (the Lady of Winterfell and NOT married, therefore the Boltons have no true claim to her) from the wilderness. This is no different then the nights watch guys grabbing Alys and arresting Arnolf, to protect her right as the Lady of the house to choose her own husband. Not one single person considered that treason. You are letting Jon's worry about crossing the line/or it being seen as such due to it being his sister as apposed to a stranger tint what actually happened. The only questionable part was that Long lake isn't nights watch territory, but we all know that the northern house who holds those lands would have supported these actions.

For the attack part, the Boltons said in the letter that they were going to attack the wall. So he was responding to a threat. Everyone knows the wall can't be defended from the south. If Jon didn't attack, the nights watch would die. Every one of them would be slaughtered and they know that. So if a madman says he's going to attack, and Jon says I'm going to head them off, likely intending to ambush them on the road like he thought about wanting to do to the Then's but didn't have the men, with anyone willing to come with him, but saying he wants all Night's watch members to be North of Wall, so that there is no one left here to attack, and no way to hold them accountable. The people left behind are people he would expect to rat him out to the Boltons. Why do you assume that they are all to stupid to realize that he is sacrificing himself to save them? Some of them will be sure, like Bowen, and I think he was counting on that. Because if a madman, known all over the North for being violent and unpredictable hears you're coming he will charge at you full speed, then Jon has him. Or would have, if Bowen hadn't messed everything up. And even if they all see it that way (which I doubt) the proper action is to send a raven to the warden of the North asking for help. Shanking a Lord, including an elected one, is treason, that's why they were crying, they knew they were committing treason, they knew what they were doing was wrong.

[HexMachina]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yeah, I agree this is possible. I could see a scenario where no one knows for sure what happened and no one is certain of what is actually going on. After all, we have Wun Wun and ser Patrek. I mean, could men loyal to Jon just assume that the Queen's Men attacked Jon in retaliation for what happened to Patrek? And there are other possibilities, too. 

But the one thing I don't see happening at all is any type of de-escalation. Explanations, negotiations, talks, whatever, I don't think the situation as it is (immediately following the stabbing) has room for that to happen. That's why I think it will be a bloodbath. And maybe it will be those loyal to Jon - northerners, crows, free folk - against Marsh and his cronies, or maybe things get even more chaotic and it will be everyone against everyone else, no one being really sure why they're fighting against x, y or z. But then that brings me back to the free folk and any others loyal to Jon managing to take control of the situation eventually because they outnumber the rest.

I agree there won’t be (immediate) de-escalation too. Absolutely nothing is calming down while Wun Wun is still rampaging to start with. But for me this only gives more opportunity for Bowen to have plausible deniability. If the chaos continues and people are running back and forth across the yard and Jon’s lying there (attended by allies or otherwise) it’s easy enough for Bowen to gain some distance from Jon and then when things eventually do calm down and someone says “what happened to the LC?” Bowen (if he survived) could plausibly say “I dunno, I didn’t see anything. Did you Wick? See what comes of letting through undisciplined barbarians?!” 

Everything is hugely speculative at this point though of course!

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

34 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

when things eventually do calm down and someone says “what happened to the LC?” Bowen (if he survived) could plausibly say “I dunno, I didn’t see anything. Did you Wick? See what comes of letting through undisciplined barbarians?!” 

 

[kissdbyfire]

37 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

I agree there won’t be (immediate) de-escalation too. Absolutely nothing is calming down while Wun Wun is still rampaging to start with. But for me this only gives more opportunity for Bowen to have plausible deniability. If the chaos continues and people are running back and forth across the yard and Jon’s lying there (attended by allies or otherwise) it’s easy enough for Bowen to gain some distance from Jon and then when things eventually do calm down and someone says “what happened to the LC?” Bowen (if he survived) could plausibly say “I dunno, I didn’t see anything. Did you Wick? See what comes of letting through undisciplined barbarians?!” 

Everything is hugely speculative at this point though of course!

Yes, the scenario you describe is definitely possible. Maybe I'm so set on Marsh & co getting their just deserts because... wishful thinking! 

I quite like the idea of Marsh becoming the 999th LC only to be deposed or killed - preferably both - shortly afterwards. 

I still think the free folk will hold CB and most of the Wall at some point. And that will be an important factor somehow. After all, it will be the first time in millennia that the Wall will be manned [mostly] by First Men. I think the passage below foreshadows this.

ADwD, Jon XII

“The castle Jon returned to was far different from the one he’d left that morning. For as long as he had known it, Castle Black had been a place of silence and shadows, where a meagre company of men in black moved like ghosts amongst the ruins of a fortress that had once housed ten times their numbers. All that had changed. Lights now shone through windows where Jon Snow had never seen lights shine before. Strange voices echoed down the yards, and free folk were coming and going along icy paths that had only known the black boots of crows for years. Outside the old Flint Barracks, he came across a dozen men pelting one another with snow. Playing, Jon thought in astonishment, grown men playing like children, throwing snowballs the way Bran and Arya once did, and Robb and me before them.”

So, maybe it goes down as you describe and Marsh manages to escape retaliation for a while. But it won't be for long... I do wonder, though, if it goes down like that, the free folk will most likely... leave? Head south? Or try to regroup either at Oakenshield or Queensgate? I don't know, but there are several very interesting possibilities. 

[Nowy Tends]

When he stabs Jon, Bowen Marsh is portrayed in such a way that makes me think he actually knows that nothing good will come from this act and he's doomed…

[Texas Hold Em]

It's too chaotic right now to hold an election for a permanent LC but Bowen can certainly fill the role temporarily.  He will do his best to regroup and recover from Jon's fuck-ups.  But no matter what happens, the wall has lost most of its defense because the wildlings are leaving to attack Ramsay.  

Anyway so it's too chaotic to bury Jon's corpse.  This is where Bran's vision comes into the picture.  The men will dump his body in a cell for temporary purposes.  The Others will arrive and they might accidentally resurrect Jon, who becomes an ice wight.  

[The Lord of the Crossing]

On 5/14/2018 at 10:42 AM, Clegane'sPup said:

I am slightly familiar with the overall layout. My curiously is about manpower at the end of DwD.

Shadow Tower is at one end and Eastwatch at the other end with CB sorta in the middle.

Now that the LC is in limbo, if a fight/battle between the free folk, NW and Stannis’ men happens at CB who is going to seize control?

Does anyone have any guesstamations (estimates) about who outnumbers whom? And/or how this situation is going to be handled by the author?

I’m thinking that the free folk or if you prefer wildlings outnumber the NW, but I can’t remember if they are armed. I am also unsure of how many men Selyse has brought to CB.  Merely some stuff rattling around in my brain that I hadn’t considered before.

There are more wildlings than watch brothers at the wall.  

 

 

[The Lord of the Crossing]

6 hours ago, Nowy Tends said:

When he stabs Jon, Bowen Marsh is portrayed in such a way that makes me think he actually knows that nothing good will come from this act and he's doomed…

To me, Bowen Marsh was portrayed as a man who was sad to do what he has to do.  He had no choice.  Jon was a big liability to the watch and no longer fit to lead.  Bowen did what he had to do.  I didn't see it as hate nor anger. 

[Azarial]

I agree with @Nowy Tends he knows he has no right to do what he's doing and that he's doomed himself. He thinks he is doing what is best for the watch, I have no doubt of that. But he's wrong. If you really think Bowen is acting based on doing what is 'right' and not what he wants done out of fear, go re-read the scene on the top of the wall where Jon is talking to him and several others including the mountain clans. Read the part where Jon explains what he is doing, why he's doing it, what precautions he's taking (since all these Jon messed up threads love to harp on how he never did this), then read Bowens response. But the next part is the important part. What did Jon say, and what was Bowens response?

Quote

"I know what I swore." Jon said the words. "I am the sword in the darkness. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men. Were those the same words you said when you took your vows?"

 

"They were. As the lord commander knows."

 

"Are you certain that I have not forgotten some? The ones about the king and his laws, and how we must defend every foot of his land and cling to each ruined castle? How does that part go?" Jon waited for an answer. None came. "I am the shield that guards the realms of men. Those are the words. So tell me, my lord—what are these wildlings, if not men?"

Bowen was afraid of the wildlings and wanted to get rid of them, and Jon as he supports integration, out of fear and hatred towards them. But, he knew based on this conversation and the fact that the Northerner's were siding with Jon that he couldn't get rid of him within the rules. It's as simple as that.

The readers who say Bowen was doing what he had to, or what was best are missing the fact that everything Bowen does is rooted in an intense racism against the free folk. If racism was present for years, centuries and a small group are so deeply racist that it causes them to be irrational and kill a man for trying to end the practice how can anyone say that they were justified to do so!!! Because that is essentially what this Jon, Bowen conflict boils down to. 

All of Bowens comments prior to this, show that this is his motivation. Ghosts reaction directed at Mully but not Satin show that this was being plotted prior to the shield hall. The facts have been laid out, and people just want to hate Jon because he's to much a hero type so they search for reasons to justify Bowens actions, even though they are clearly rooted in a fear caused by him being a racist. 

If Jon has been to 'good' just wait. I suspect that when he comes back he will tackle the racism in a very direct and brutal way, because time is running out and he can't waste any more of it on diplomacy. He will need to be a much darker character in winds thanks to Bowens and co.

FYI: You know nothing is based off one of the Greek Sages Thales, who was quoted for saying, "The most difficult thing is to know thy self." Hense, "You know nothing Jon Snow," being said to him by a wildling who says they are of the same kin, the same people. Something he wasn't aware of. This ties in with the whole racism theme...

[Tagganaro]

22 minutes ago, Azarial said:

I agree with @Nowy Tends he knows he has no right to do what he's doing and that he's doomed himself. He thinks he is doing what is best for the watch, I have no doubt of that. But he's wrong. If you really think Bowen is acting based on doing what is 'right' and not what he wants done out of fear, go re-read the scene on the top of the wall where Jon is talking to him and several others including the mountain clans. Read the part where Jon explains what he is doing, why he's doing it, what precautions he's taking (since all these Jon messed up threads love to harp on how he never did this), then read Bowens response. But the next part is the important part. What did Jon say, and what was Bowens response?

I always point to this scene as well.  Bowen flat-out accuses Jon of treason, despite Jon winning over the far more skeptical of his wilding integration plans Norrey and Flint.  Jon's response is to recite the words of the NW oath, ask Bowen where it says what he's doing is treason, and then Bowen responds by comically getting red and doing like a comical gulp because he has no answer.  Bowen is specifically portrayed as a comically ignorant racist idiot throughout the books.

Quote

 

Bowen was afraid of the wildlings and wanted to get rid of them, and Jon as he supports integration, out of fear and hatred towards them. But, he knew based on this conversation and the fact that the Northerner's were siding with Jon that he couldn't get rid of him within the rules. It's as simple as that.

The readers who say Bowen was doing what he had to, or what was best are missing the fact that everything Bowen does is rooted in an intense racism against the free folk. If racism was present for years, centuries and a small group are so deeply racist that it causes them to be irrational and kill a man for trying to end the practice how can anyone say that they were justified to do so!!! Because that is essentially what this Jon, Bowen conflict boils down to. 

All of Bowens comments prior to this, show that this is his motivation. Ghosts reaction directed at Mully but not Satin show that this was being plotted prior to the shield hall. The facts have been laid out, and people just want to hate Jon because he's to much a hero type so they search for reasons to justify Bowens actions, even though they are clearly rooted in a fear caused by him being a racist. 

If Jon has been to 'good' just wait. I suspect that when he comes back he will tackle the racism in a very direct and brutal way, because time is running out and he can't waste any more of it on diplomacy. He will need to be a much darker character in winds thanks to Bowens and co.

 

Independently of Jon, LC Mormont came to the same exact conclusion as Jon.  Essentially that the Wall was not built/created to stop the wildlings but the Others.  Both of them cite the same exact portion of the NW oath as their reason for coming to this conclusion ("I am the shield that guards the realms of men," and further reason that wildings are clearly men).

But anyway, appreciate your response but it has been the same 3 or so accounts who come into every one of these threads and hero worship Marsh and start this same exact convo.

22 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

I agree there won’t be (immediate) de-escalation too. Absolutely nothing is calming down while Wun Wun is still rampaging to start with. But for me this only gives more opportunity for Bowen to have plausible deniability. If the chaos continues and people are running back and forth across the yard and Jon’s lying there (attended by allies or otherwise) it’s easy enough for Bowen to gain some distance from Jon and then when things eventually do calm down and someone says “what happened to the LC?” Bowen (if he survived) could plausibly say “I dunno, I didn’t see anything. Did you Wick? See what comes of letting through undisciplined barbarians?!” 

Everything is hugely speculative at this point though of course!

I think this is a good debate and question, but for me I still see too many witnesses to this for there to be any kind of plausible deniability.  I understand there is chaos but prior to Jon's stabbing, you already had Wun Wun rampaging and screaming so you have a ton of people already spilling out if not standing there watching Wun Wun.  Then you clearly have Jon calling attention to himself by issuing commands, and then on top of that you have the theatrics of the stabbing itself.  Like these were not quick business-like thrusts, these were people making really emotional and dramatic gestures (Marsh crying and either saying out loud or yelling "for the watch", Wick getting caught and backing off like a patsy).  My point being that the attackers themselves are not only taking some time to get this done, but also in their own way calling attention to it.

I do think the real question here is how the wildings and Queen's Men react.  Those wildling hostages may prevent the wildlings from really doing too much until they are safe.  While the Queen's Men are small in numbers, they are also passionate devoted fanatics who see one of their own being killed while ostensibly carrying out Selyse's order (she makes the proclamation that Patrek is to marry Val earlier on in the chapter), of course Patrek is the idiot who heard Jon's story about needing to "steal" Val and probably thought he could take on Wun-Wun per Ser Godrik's boasts about killing that fleeing giant.

 

[Azarial]

8 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

I always point to this scene as well.  Bowen flat-out accuses Jon of treason, despite Jon winning over the far more skeptical of his wilding integration plans Norrey and Flint.  Jon's response is to recite the words of the NW oath, ask Bowen where it says what he's doing is treason, and then Bowen responds by comically getting red and doing like a comical gulp because he has no answer.  Bowen is specifically portrayed as a comically ignorant racist idiot throughout the books.

Independently of Jon, LC Mormont came to the same exact conclusion as Jon.  Essentially that the Wall was not built/created to stop the wildlings but the Others.  Both of them cite the same exact portion of the NW oath as their reason for coming to this conclusion ("I am the shield that guards the realms of men," and further reason that wildings are clearly men).

But anyway, appreciate your response but it has been the same 3 or so accounts who come into every one of these threads and hero worship Marsh and start this same exact convo.

I think this is a good debate and question, but for me I still see too many witnesses to this for there to be any kind of plausible deniability.  I understand there is chaos but prior to Jon's stabbing, you already had Wun Wun rampaging and screaming so you have a ton of people already spilling out if not standing there watching Wun Wun.  Then you clearly have Jon calling attention to himself by issuing commands, and then on top of that you have the theatrics of the stabbing itself.  Like these were not quick business-like thrusts, these were people making really emotional and dramatic gestures (Marsh crying and either saying out loud or yelling "for the watch", Wick getting caught and backing off like a patsy).  My point being that the attackers themselves are not only taking some time to get this done, but also in their own way calling attention to it.

I do think the real question here is how the wildings and Queen's Men react.  Those wildling hostages may prevent the wildlings from really doing too much until they are safe.  While the Queen's Men are small in numbers, they are also passionate devoted fanatics who see one of their own being killed while ostensibly carrying out Selyse's order (she makes the proclamation that Patrek is to marry Val earlier on in the chapter), of course Patrek is the idiot who heard Jon's story about needing to "steal" Val and probably thought he could take on Wun-Wun per Ser Godrik's boasts about killing that fleeing giant.

 

It is nice know others see the text the same way I do, and that the subtext truly must be there for so many to find it independently. And sad to know that there are some who really want to destroy a character with no facts to back it up. 

The queens men are the real wild card in my mind. They seem to be a combination of injured, cowardly and arrogant. Stannis appears to have kept the more noble ones with him. So the queens men, Florent comes to mind, doing something to inflame tensions between the nights watch and the Free Folk by attacking anyone who tries to defend Wun-Wun, or spouting off about them being demon worshiping savages etc. Could play a factor even with their small numbers. 

The new recruits seem to be very loyal to Jon, even going so fat as to convert to the Old Gods because of their respect of him and they came after the Free Folk were deemed to not be the enemy and know no different. So I see them as being the opposite of the queens men. They would defend Jon and the Free Folk, and many Nights Watch members who were unsure, but dislike the queens men and or Bowen and co. could be swayed by this. So I can see a faction that will team up and bind the two groups together. Along with any who are old time members and loyal. Jon seems to have the support of the Rangers, and they are the warriors so that can't be overlooked. 

Hmm... rationalizing it out like this, I think it may be over fairly quick. As most of the people against Jon and the Free folk aren't fighters. Once Wun Wun is dealt with, those who are loyal to Jon should be able to take control of the wall, as they have numbers and are better fighters on the whole, as Bowen and co are mainly builders, and the based on what Mel said of the queens men, they aren't a large threat either once the initial reaction is done, and sides are chosen. The biggest unknown I see is Wun Wun. The success of Jon's supporters depends largely on getting him under control as quickly as possible and the queens men are the biggest obstacle to this happening since they will attack him and unless they kill him before the Free Folk can stop them they will make him even angrier. But either of those situations would just solidify the Free Folk against the queens men more than they already were, and him dying would end that distraction. I want to see Wun Wun live though. Just not sure I see a way for that to be possible though. 

[The Fattest Leech]

58 minutes ago, Azarial said:

It is nice know others see the text the same way I do, and that the subtext truly must be there for so many to find it independently. And sad to know that there are some who really want to destroy a character with no facts to back it up. 

The queens men are the real wild card in my mind. They seem to be a combination of injured, cowardly and arrogant. Stannis appears to have kept the more noble ones with him. So the queens men, Florent comes to mind, doing something to inflame tensions between the nights watch and the Free Folk by attacking anyone who tries to defend Wun-Wun, or spouting off about them being demon worshiping savages etc. Could play a factor even with their small numbers. 

The new recruits seem to be very loyal to Jon, even going so fat as to convert to the Old Gods because of their respect of him and they came after the Free Folk were deemed to not be the enemy and know no different. So I see them as being the opposite of the queens men. They would defend Jon and the Free Folk, and many Nights Watch members who were unsure, but dislike the queens men and or Bowen and co. could be swayed by this. So I can see a faction that will team up and bind the two groups together. Along with any who are old time members and loyal. Jon seems to have the support of the Rangers, and they are the warriors so that can't be overlooked. 

Hmm... rationalizing it out like this, I think it may be over fairly quick. As most of the people against Jon and the Free folk aren't fighters. Once Wun Wun is dealt with, those who are loyal to Jon should be able to take control of the wall, as they have numbers and are better fighters on the whole, as Bowen and co are mainly builders, and the based on what Mel said of the queens men, they aren't a large threat either once the initial reaction is done, and sides are chosen. The biggest unknown I see is Wun Wun. The success of Jon's supporters depends largely on getting him under control as quickly as possible and the queens men are the biggest obstacle to this happening since they will attack him and unless they kill him before the Free Folk can stop them they will make him even angrier. But either of those situations would just solidify the Free Folk against the queens men more than they already were, and him dying would end that distraction. I want to see Wun Wun live though. Just not sure I see a way for that to be possible though. 

Welcome!

Many very valid points are already brought up in this thread. I just want to add that the question of Wun Wun being controlled will most likely come from Leathers, who is still there, and possibly even Val, who likes to watch Jon from her window and may have seen some of the events.

And also what Melisandre's part in the entire event actually was. I do not think she is a bystander at all. She knows something already.

If Marsh and Co. try and do something senseless like re-corralling the free folk, or trying to have the few attack Wun Wun, they will be taken down rather quickly. Being a racist traitor in Martinworld doesn't get you very far.

[Clegane'sPup]

As to the opening post a poster supplied the information from DwD Jon IX that Selyse arrived with retinue of fifty men. That is a truth as it applies to what martin wrote.

As to the NW numbers ---- when Jon is taken by the wildlings/free folk he exaggerates the truth:

A Storm of Swords - Jon III      "How many crows remain within the castles?" asked Styr.     "Five hundred at Castle Black. Two hundred at Shadow Tower, perhaps three hundred at Eastwatch." Jon added three hundred men to the count. If only it were that easy . . .    Jarl was not fooled, however. "/

Prior to that in CoK, it is mentioned that wildlings number in the thousands. There is also mention that when Halfhand arrives at the Fist from Shadow Tower the NW will number 300. A person would need to figure out how many men Mormont had and how many men Halfhand was bringing.

A Clash of Kings - Jon IV      They will emerge from the heights soon, and for a host of any size, the only route is along the Milkwater. If so, we are strongly placed here. They cannot hope to slip by us."    "They may not wish to. They are thousands, and we will be three hundred when the Halfhand reaches us." Ser Mallador accepted a cup from Jon./

Moving along to the chitchat betwixt LC Snow and Stannis, again I am given the number 300.

A Dance with Dragons - Jon IV      "Proud. Poor. Prickly where their honor is concerned but fierce fighters."     "This had best not be some bastard's trick. Will I trade three hundred fighters for three thousand? Aye, I will. I am not an utter fool./

Marsh gets a bit rowdy with his LC and explains his nervousness about the wildlings:

A Dance with Dragons - Jon XI      "Once past the Wall, the wildlings will have thrice our numbers," said Bowen Marsh. "And that is only Tormund's band. Add the Weeper's men and those at Hardhome, and they will have the strength to end the Night's Watch in a single night."/

Those are the numbers I found. Prior to this I focused on the upcoming battles concerning Stannis and WF. Recently I picked up on the above quote. I'm thinking there will be a minor upheaval at CB. I look forward to it.

 

 

 

[Azarial]

I suspect that someone, likely Ser Patrick in a misguided attempt to get him to pass out if I had to guess, gave Wun-Wun a lot to drink based on Jon's earlier thoughts about him Leathers not giving Wun-Wun anything to drink thanks to his big liking for it, and the dangers of a drunk giant. This had to be foreshadowing of something and could explain why he was not responding when Jon and Leathers initially tried to calm him prior to the stabbing. So although Leathers is present, I'm not sure it would do much good. A scared injured giant is bad, add drunk to that and it could be a disaster. Now, if his rage gets directed at Bowen and Co then I'll be happy  

I know Mel knew something, but since she seems to misunderstand her visions much of the time I wonder how much she really knew, vs what she thought but was wrong about as she left in a hurry and didn't do anything to protect Jon. But I don't even have a guess as to her possible involvement in the aftermath. When it comes to things like the resurrection, and some sacrifices to the fire I see her involvement. But I suspect she's rushed off to check the fire for information of Stannis and may not be back right away, so would be more of a witness to the aftermath than a participant. I could easily be wrong though. The powder she had on her hand that tricked Ghost into thinking she was Jon and him into seeing her as Yggritte  when touching Ghost would sure be handy in calming Wun Wun. 

@Clegane'sPup Weren't we given accurate counts for the nights watch during the election? I thought it was 300 at castle black, and 200 at each of the other two. But could easily be miss-remembering as numbers aren't my thing. It may be in a Sam chapter as he is helping with the counts.

[kissdbyfire]

A quickie regarding numbers... In Dance, when Mancelshirt is about to be executed, Jon has a bunch of men w/ him. And he thinks that they are mostly older men and green boys. He also ponders... he has 200 men w/ him, and that's more than half of CB's crows. 

ADwD, Jon III

Inside his cage, Mance Rayder clawed at the noose about his neck with bound hands and screamed incoherently of treachery and witchery, denying his kingship, denying his people, denying his name, denying all that he had ever been. He shrieked for mercy and cursed the red woman and began to laugh hysterically.

Jon watched unblinking. He dare not appear squeamish before his brothers. He had ordered out two hundred men, more than half the garrison of Castle Black. Mounted in solemn sable ranks with tall spears in hand, they had drawn up their hoods to shadow their faces … and hide the fact that so many were greybeards and green boys. The free folk feared the Watch. Jon wanted them to take that fear with them to their new homes south of the Wall.

 

[Clegane'sPup]

17 minutes ago, Azarial said:

 

 

@Clegane'sPup Weren't we given accurate counts for the nights watch during the election? I thought it was 300 at castle black, and 200 at each of the other two. But could easily be miss-remembering as numbers aren't my thing. It may be in a Sam chapter as he is helping with the counts.

I didn't take the time to look into who was present. Share if you are so inclined. It would be helpful. Thanks.

[Tagganaro]

5 hours ago, Azarial said:

The new recruits seem to be very loyal to Jon, even going so fat as to convert to the Old Gods because of their respect of him and they came after the Free Folk were deemed to not be the enemy and know no different. So I see them as being the opposite of the queens men. They would defend Jon and the Free Folk, and many Nights Watch members who were unsure, but dislike the queens men and or Bowen and co. could be swayed by this. So I can see a faction that will team up and bind the two groups together. Along with any who are old time members and loyal. Jon seems to have the support of the Rangers, and they are the warriors so that can't be overlooked. 

Yes I think it's definitely fair to distinguish between the newer recruits and the older ones as far as loyalty to Jon goes.  IIRC, there is also a comment about how most of the rangers support Jon while most of the stewards/builders don't (which makes perfect sense).  

Quote

Hmm... rationalizing it out like this, I think it may be over fairly quick. As most of the people against Jon and the Free folk aren't fighters. Once Wun Wun is dealt with, those who are loyal to Jon should be able to take control of the wall, as they have numbers and are better fighters on the whole, as Bowen and co are mainly builders, and the based on what Mel said of the queens men, they aren't a large threat either once the initial reaction is done, and sides are chosen. The biggest unknown I see is Wun Wun. The success of Jon's supporters depends largely on getting him under control as quickly as possible and the queens men are the biggest obstacle to this happening since they will attack him and unless they kill him before the Free Folk can stop them they will make him even angrier. But either of those situations would just solidify the Free Folk against the queens men more than they already were, and him dying would end that distraction. I want to see Wun Wun live though. Just not sure I see a way for that to be possible though. 

Again, as has been mentioned, it's just very unclear where the wildling hostages are located and if they could be easily corralled.  Because then, whoever has control of them can neutralize the wildlings and their extensive numbers advantage. 

4 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

possibly even Val, who likes to watch Jon from her window and may have seen some of the events.

This sounds so creepy when written out like this but it does seem to be rather accurate.  

19 minutes ago, Azarial said:

I suspect that someone, likely Ser Patrick in a misguided attempt to get him to pass out if I had to guess, gave Wun-Wun a lot to drink based on Jon's earlier thoughts about him Leathers not giving Wun-Wun anything to drink thanks to his big liking for it, and the dangers of a drunk giant. This had to be foreshadowing of something and could explain why he was not responding when Jon and Leathers initially tried to calm him prior to the stabbing. So although Leathers is present, I'm not sure it would do much good. A scared injured giant is bad, add drunk to that and it could be a disaster. Now, if his rage gets directed at Bowen and Co then I'll be happy  

This is an interesting idea.  You could be on to something, although I'd still maintain that Wun-Wun is probably not drunk and that was just a throw-away joke.  GRRM did include a decent amount of humor in the Jon chapters particularly in interactions with Stannis, Val, and Tormund...I could definitely see the drinking thing being a one-off joke.  

I suspect that Wun-Wun is anywhere from moderately to severely wounded and in a lot of pain.  He is described as having cuts on his arms and belly from Patrek's sword and we're not given to understand that Wun-Wun is used to violence nor even aware of his own strength and fearsomeness.  Knowing all that, I think Wun-Wun's exaggerated reaction is very understandable and perhaps has nothing to do with him being drunk.  But you could be right, like I said it is an interesting idea.  

[Clegane'sPup]

5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Jon watched unblinking. He dare not appear squeamish before his brothers. He had ordered out two hundred men, more than half the garrison of Castle Black. Mounted in solemn sable ranks with tall spears in hand, they had drawn up their hoods to shadow their faces … and hide the fact that so many were greybeards and green boys. The free folk feared the Watch. Jon wanted them to take that fear with them to their new homes south of the Wall.

I'm merely questioning how many NW men are at CB at the time LC Snow is left in limbo. From the quote you supplied it appears that there are approximately 400 NW men inhabiting CB at the time of Manceshirt's demise.

I guess Marsh has no reason to be concerned about the wildlings

A Dance with Dragons - Jon XI      "Once past the Wall, the wildlings will have thrice our numbers," said Bowen Marsh. "And that is only Tormund's band. Add the Weeper's men and those at Hardhome, and they will have the strength to end the Night's Watch in a single night."/

I'm thinking, you let me know, that we both be saying some wildlings are gonna kick some arse?

 

[kissdbyfire]

2 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

Again, as has been mentioned, it's just very unclear where the wildling hostages are located and if they could be easily corralled.  Because then, whoever has control of them can neutralize the wildlings and their extensive numbers advantage. 

Weren't some sent to EbS and ST? If I'm not mistaken, more than half the hostages are not there, something like 60 something? Or was it 40 something? And the ones at CB are not going to be locked up in a room, they will be housed... where the recruits are housed would be my guess. Jon makes it very clear that they will work and train etc. The Thunderfist's boy will be Jon's squire/page whatever. 

ADwD, Jon XI

Yet even that did not appease his Lord Steward. "You say these boys will serve as squires. Surely the lord commander does not mean they will be trained at arms?"

Jon's anger flared. "No, my lord, I mean to set them to sewing lacy smallclothes. Of course they shall be trained at arms. They shall also churn butter, hew firewood, muck stables, empty chamber pots, and run messages … and in between they will be drilled with spear and sword and longbow."

 

ADwD, Jon XII

No, thought Jon Snow, it has only just begun.

Bowen Marsh was waiting for him south of the Wall, with a tablet full of numbers. "Three thousand one hundred and nineteen wildlings passed through the gate today," the Lord Steward told him. "Sixty of your hostages were sent off to Eastwatch and the Shadow Tower after they'd been fed. Edd Tollett took six wagons of women back to Long Barrow. The rest remain with us."

[kissdbyfire]

7 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I'm merely questioning how many NW men are at CB at the time LC Snow is left in limbo. From the quote you supplied it appears that there are approximately 400 NW men inhabiting CB at the time of Manceshirt's demise.

I guess Marsh has no reason to be concerned about the wildlings

A Dance with Dragons - Jon XI      "Once past the Wall, the wildlings will have thrice our numbers," said Bowen Marsh. "And that is only Tormund's band. Add the Weeper's men and those at Hardhome, and they will have the strength to end the Night's Watch in a single night."/

I'm thinking, you let me know, that we both be saying some wildlings are gonna kick some arse?

 

Damn straight!

But Marsh's count is off, innit? If there are roughly 400 crows at CB, and Tormund brings 3,000 + change, the free folk will have much more than 3 x. Hmmm. Now I do wonder... at any rate, the free folk outnumber the crows.