Jump to content

Meanwhile back at the Wall


Clegane'sPup

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Damn straight! :commie:

But Marsh's count is off, innit? If there are roughly 400 crows at CB, and Tormund brings 3,000 + change, the free folk will have much more than 3 x. Hmmm. Now I do wonder... at any rate, the free folk outnumber the crows.

Isn't it weird though that Marsh's count would be so off? He has consistently been presented as the man who knows the count. 

Maybe the conspiracy against Jon extends much further than Castle Black.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

Isn't it weird though that Marsh's count would be so off? He has consistently been presented as the man who knows the count. 

Maybe the conspiracy against Jon extends much further than Castle Black.

It is weird. But how could this have anything to do w/ the conspiracy against Jon? I mean, it's quite possible that others at EbtS and/or ST are involved. But know the free folk w/ Tormund number roughly around 3,000 because we have it from other characters as well. I also don't think Jon could be so off when he thinks about those 200 being 'more than half'. 

Could it be just one of those mistakes that slip by? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

It is weird. But how could this have anything to do w/ the conspiracy against Jon? I mean, it's quite possible that others at EbtS and/or ST are involved. But know the free folk w/ Tormund number roughly around 3,000 because we have it from other characters as well. I also don't think Jon could be so off when he thinks about those 200 being 'more than half'. 

Could it be just one of those mistakes that slip by? 

Is Marsh considering all of the Wildlings in his count, or just those who are fighters? Though he would be guesstimating such a figure of course. Could be one explanation I suppose.

or as you say, a mistake slipped through

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Is Marsh considering all of the Wildlings in his count, or just those who are fighters? Though he would be guesstimating such a figure of course. Could be one explanation I suppose.

or as you say, a mistake slipped through

Actually... brb

 

Nope. He is considering all w/ Tormund. And there's still the ones that came before, how many were there? 600? I don't remember.

Found it, c lose to 1,000 actually.

ADwD, Jon III

Lady Melisandre watched him rise. "FREE FOLK! Here stands your king of lies. And here is the horn he promised would bring down the Wall." Two queen's men brought forth the Horn of Joramun, black and banded with old gold, eight feet long from end to end. Runes were carved into the golden bands, the writing of the First Men. Joramun had died thousands of years ago, but Mance had found his grave beneath a glacier, high up in the Frostfangs. And Joramun blew the Horn of Winter, and woke giants from the earth. Ygritte had told Jon that Mance never found the horn. She lied, or else Mance kept it secret even from his own.

A thousand captives watched through the wooden bars of their stockade as the horn was lifted high. All were ragged and half-starved. Wildlings, the Seven Kingdoms called them; they named themselves the free folk. They looked neither wild nor free—only hungry, frightened, numb.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

It is weird. But how could this have anything to do w/ the conspiracy against Jon? I mean, it's quite possible that others at EbtS and/or ST are involved. But know the free folk w/ Tormund number roughly around 3,000 because we have it from other characters as well. I also don't think Jon could be so off when he thinks about those 200 being 'more than half'. 

Could it be just one of those mistakes that slip by? 

I would think Eastwatch could be involved to some extent. Cotter Pyke is at Hardhome and left Glendon Hewett in charge. Jon wasn't exactly thrilled over that because Hewett was close to Thorne and Slynt. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Is Marsh considering all of the Wildlings in his count, or just those who are fighters? Though he would be guesstimating such a figure of course. Could be one explanation I suppose.

or as you say, a mistake slipped through

It is probably my inaccuracies that have led to the possible confusion. 

A Dance with Dragons - Jon XI      "Once past the Wall, the wildlings will have thrice our numbers," said Bowen Marsh. "And that is only Tormund's band. Add the Weeper's men and those at Hardhome, and they will have the strength to end the Night's Watch in a single night."/

 

39 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

But how could this have anything to do w/ the conspiracy against Jon?

The thread is about what happens after LC Snow is tenderized.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Clegane'sPup said:

 

The thread is about what happens after LC Snow is tenderized.

 

 

 

I'm trying to respect your wishes to stay on strict topic so I'm no longer contributing to this thread.

But I'm not understanding the thought process behind a possible conspiracy or any number of other things brought up in the thread not having any direct impact on the aftermath Jon's stabbing. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

I'm trying to respect your wishes to stay on strict topic so I'm no longer contributing to this thread.

But I'm not understanding the thought process behind a possible conspiracy or any number of other things brought up in the thread not having any direct impact on the aftermath Jon's stabbing. 

  

Thank you. I apologized a couple pages back for my extreme sarcasm. Please be free to add your thoughts.

The premise is what happens after LC Snow is tenderized.

Not whether or not LC Snow broke vows. Not about whether Marsh was right or wrong.

This is not a pass the judgement thread.

Martin has not yet released how the situation at the Wall will resolve itself.

I think I mentioned in the opening post that there are various factions involved.

How are those differing factions going to react to the chaos that happens outside the shield hall?

Does it have an impact on the story?

People have to pick a side. I'm thinking the wildlings outnumber the NW based at CB.

Whether or not the wildlings/free folk are pro or anti Snow they might be a problem for the NW.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Widow's Watch said:

I would think Eastwatch could be involved to some extent. Cotter Pyke is at Hardhome and left Glendon Hewett in charge. Jon wasn't exactly thrilled over that because Hewett was close to Thorne and Slynt. 

Yeah, it's a real possibility, I agree. Still, unless Marsh communicated w/ Hewett to let him know in advance, it won't matter much straight away. I think Marsh has been involved n plotting against Jon for quite some time. At some point he/they decide it's time to act and remove Jon. But... something forces his hand and he decides to carry out the assassination sooner than expected. Quite possibly a combo of things w/ the PL followed by Jon's speech as the final straw. 

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

It is probably my inaccuracies that have led to the possible confusion. 

A Dance with Dragons - Jon XI      "Once past the Wall, the wildlings will have thrice our numbers," said Bowen Marsh. "And that is only Tormund's band. Add the Weeper's men and those at Hardhome, and they will have the strength to end the Night's Watch in a single night."/

The numbers we are getting from characters are not adding up.

Jon says there's ~ 400 crows at CB early on in ADwD

Marsh says Tormund came in w/ 3,000+ and that alone means the free folk will outnumber the crows 3:1. But if CB has 400, thrice that would be 1,200. And counting is literally the ONLY thing Marsh is capable of doing. It's weird. 

That's why I think it is possible that it's just a mistake, like the gender of horses and colours of eyes. :)

 

Quote

The thread is about what happens after LC Snow is tenderized.

I didn't make myself clear, sorry. I think it is possible that crows at EbtS and or the ST are involved in the conspirators' plotting, but I don't see any correlation between that and Marsh's counts being off. 

ETA: just saw a couple of new posts and have to ask... Am I wandering off topic? If so, apologies, I didn't think I was...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/15/2018 at 4:33 PM, Nowy Tends said:

When he stabs Jon, Bowen Marsh is portrayed in such a way that makes me think he actually knows that nothing good will come from this act and he's doomed…

Killing his looney lord commander can end up getting himself killed.  I am sure that crossed BM's mind.  But he is a loyal man of the Night's Watch and devoted to serving the realm.  He had an obligation to stop Jon from elevating his feud with Ramsay to all out warfare.  Killing the lord commander who started the feud gives the Watch a chance to work things out with the Boltons.  It would not be dishonest to assure the Boltons that they had nothing to do with Mance being in Winterfell and taking Ramsay's bride away.  The Watch and its sworn brothers are innocent of those illegal activities.  Bowen was crying because Jon put him in a situation where he now has to kill his lord commander to save the Watch.  Jon created this unfortunate situation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/15/2018 at 7:58 PM, Texas Hold Em said:

It's too chaotic right now to hold an election for a permanent LC but Bowen can certainly fill the role temporarily.  He will do his best to regroup and recover from Jon's fuck-ups.  But no matter what happens, the wall has lost most of its defense because the wildlings are leaving to attack Ramsay.  

Anyway so it's too chaotic to bury Jon's corpse.  This is where Bran's vision comes into the picture.  The men will dump his body in a cell for temporary purposes.  The Others will arrive and they might accidentally resurrect Jon, who becomes an ice wight.  

all memories of warmth left his body

Could be just a flowery way of saying Rigor Mortis

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/15/2018 at 10:10 AM, Widowmaker 811 said:

The knights with Selyse will have already started weighing their options.  They may turn Stan's family, Mel, and Val to the Boltons, per the request in the Pink Letter.  Some will try and work out a deal so they can get out of this mess with their lives and maybe a little bit more.  This may be one possible explanation for why Patrek went to see Val.  Either to comply with the Pink Letter or take her away for himself.  I know, it doesn't make too much sense, Patrek should be thinking about saving his own bacon but a horny dude can get his priorities mixed up.

I have yet to read a good explanation for why Wun killed Ser Patrek but this is reasonable to me.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Agent Orange said:

 He had an obligation to stop Jon from elevating his feud with Ramsay to all out warfare.  Killing the lord commander who started the feud gives the Watch a chance to work things out with the Boltons.  It would not be dishonest to assure the Boltons that they had nothing to do with Mance being in Winterfell and taking Ramsay's bride away. 

Oh please, this has been discussed before and again your obsession with Ramsay/Boltons is irrelevant, sick and to be honest quite repugnant. Please don't try again to explain us that Ramsay is the good guy in this plot.

Marsh and his pathetic bunch of insurgents could have locked Jon, but they chose the coward's way: the stabbing by surprise. 

Obviously showing appreciation for the vilest characters is the latest fashion on this forum, but I will never get used to it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Nowy Tends said:

Obviously showing appreciation for the vilest characters is the latest fashion on this forum, but I will never get used to it.

Is there any problem if someone likes Hot Pie and Moonboy?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Okay, @Clegane'sPup I found the numbers I mentioned from the election. I am going to show the who was voted for as well, since that could give an indication of who may fight in any given faction, or indicate the numbers at the other castles based on the block voting that they were allowed to do.

We are given two days counts I am going to just show both days day one/day two:

Ser Denys Mallister 213/203

Cotter Pyke 187/169

Lord Slynt 74/137

Othell Yarwyck 60/72

Bowen Marsh 49/--

Threefinger Hobb 5/5

Dolorous Ed Tollett 1/2

So the totals are 589/588 (the difference is because Jon didn't vote on day two, well day nine technically)

Then we have the new recruits and that brings the total to aproximately 600, so wasn't miss-remembering those numbers!

 Now, if the block votes are an indication the Shadow Tower would appear to have around 200, and East Watch around 160

A large group of builders has been sent to the Night Fort

9 Rangers were sent out (3 confirmed dead)

9 ships sent to Hardhome but many of those are crewed by non nights watch members, as the ships were seized/borrowed

9 castles are open so men have been sent to man the six new castles, although most of those only have officers, and Free Folk

So their should be around 300 Nights watch members at Castle black. I'm wondering if the numbers issue wasn't a slip up of GRRM's as if he was thinking 300 times 10 to get to Tormunds 3000, he had a lot of threes in his math and could have put 3 times as simple slip up quite easily. :dunno:

Anyway, hopefully this helps you figure out the numbers you wanted.

Oh and after the election half a hundred men were said to surround Jon congratulating him (plus Bowen) and in the election Iron Emmet jumped on the table and drew his sword when Bowen/Slynt etc were insulting Jon and no one interfered. Just in case that was there to show how people may react later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Agent Orange said:

I have yet to read a good explanation for why Wun killed Ser Patrek but this is reasonable to me.  

Yes.  We should be open to another possibility.  Wun Weg could have gone bonkers on his own.  Maybe he had an allergic reaction to meat in his porridge!!!!!  Anyhoo, Patrek probably tried to force himself onto that wildling girl.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Agent Orange said:

It would not be dishonest to assure the Boltons that they had nothing to do with Mance being in Winterfell and taking Ramsay's bride away.

That was Jon's guilt, not the Night's Watch.  Problem is, being the leader of the group, he speaks for the group.  People's perception sees the leader doing something and it makes all of the men look bad.  Fairly or not, he dragged the NW into his affairs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Nowy Tends said:

Oh please, this has been discussed before and again your obsession with Ramsay/Boltons is irrelevant, sick and to be honest quite repugnant. Please don't try again to explain us that Ramsay is the good guy in this plot.

Marsh and his pathetic bunch of insurgents could have locked Jon, but they chose the coward's way: the stabbing by surprise. 

Obviously showing appreciation for the vilest characters is the latest fashion on this forum, but I will never get used to it.

I don't think it's showing an appreciation for Ramsay Bolton but more like criticizing what Jon did.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Agent Orange said:

I have yet to read a good explanation for why Wun killed Ser Patrek but this is reasonable to me.  

28 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Yes.  We should be open to another possibility.  Wun Weg could have gone bonkers on his own.  Maybe he had an allergic reaction to meat in his porridge!!!!!  Anyhoo, Patrek probably tried to force himself onto that wildling girl.  

I think it's made pretty clear in the text what led to Patrek attacking Wun Wun.  Jon openly mentions in front of Patrek that it is custom among the wildlings to steal their brides as a show of strength and courage.  Selyse then later declares that Patrek is to marry Val.  Then you have Patrek trying to steal Val, who Jon made Wun-Wun the protector of.  

15 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

I would think Eastwatch could be involved to some extent. Cotter Pyke is at Hardhome and left Glendon Hewett in charge. Jon wasn't exactly thrilled over that because Hewett was close to Thorne and Slynt. 

This is a great point.  Eastwatch is certainly a wildcard in all this as the appointment of Hewett is made note of by Jon.  You also have Alliser Thorne running around who knows where.  He could very well have shown up at Eastwatch where his friend Hewett is now in charge.

16 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Weren't some sent to EbS and ST? If I'm not mistaken, more than half the hostages are not there, something like 60 something? Or was it 40 something? And the ones at CB are not going to be locked up in a room, they will be housed... where the recruits are housed would be my guess. Jon makes it very clear that they will work and train etc. The Thunderfist's boy will be Jon's squire/page whatever. 

Very interesting.  I knew Jon had the intent to train these hostages I just wasn't sure if he had a chance to implement that yet as once Tormund's band comes through things happen pretty quickly.  I would assume that in order to have utility as hostages, there has to be some sort of plan in place to quickly corral a number of them if the wildlings were to make any sudden moves- otherwise the wildlings could basically act with impunity with no fear of the hostages being killed since they have such a massive numbers advantage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...