The role of Jon Snow in TWoW

[Guest]

On 8/10/2018 at 5:16 PM, Lord Varys said:

One hopes Jon concerns himself with things that actually do matter after his return - meaning the Others, his own parentage, prophecy, etc.

With the way it's described - a blowjob with teeth - I certainly hope he doesn't concern himself with prophecy. 

What matters to Jon more than anything is his family whom he will reuinte with (Sansa, then Bran, then Arya) and protecting them will be his #1 motive for defeating the Others.

[Lord Varys]

25 minutes ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

Qhorin: "the best hope is Winterfell. The Starks must rally the North." How is Jon supposed to do his job if he can't even get the Lords to cooperate because they fear reprisals from Ramsay? How are the Lords supposed to listen to Jon's plans if he doesn't even have a castle or a title?

That was back in ACoK, said by a man who wasn't exactly up to date on the situation in the North.

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Jon storming off to kill Ramsay - is exactly what he'll continue to do once he's resurrected. He'll just be more bitter. Stoneheart and Beric are both on missions that they would have been on if they hadn't died the first time.

Ramsay is most likely no longer going to be a problem when Jon is on his (human) feet again. The coming battle(s) should decide his fate.

19 minutes ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

What matters to Jon more than anything is his family whom he will reuinte with (Sansa, then Bran, then Arya) and protecting them will be his #1 motive for defeating the Others.

I don't think any family member is going to need Jon. Brandon is a greenseer in the making. He doesn't need his half-brother to help or protect him - he'll protect Jon. Sansa is surrounded by powerful men with large armies, and she is likely going to gain some influence over them, making her more powerful than Jon, too.

And Arya is not going to need anyone for anything in the near future. She can do whatever she wants all by herself. They could all form some wolf pack again in the end, but they won't need that to stay alive or to gain power. Their individual arcs already showed they can do that all by themselves.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

And Arya is not going to need anyone for anything in the near future. She can do whatever she wants all by herself. They could all form some wolf pack again in the end, but they won't need that to stay alive or to gain power. Their individual arcs already showed they can do that all by themselves.

So when Ned says that when Winter comes, "the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives" he really meant, they can all work as isolated lone wolves during Winter and everything will come out fine and dandy for them. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That was back in ACoK, said by a man who wasn't exactly up to date on the situation in the North.

Said by a man who is smarter than anyone in the NW at that point. He says they can try to warn the kings playing their game of thrones but southerners won't care.

The wording is foreshadowing. The best hope of defeating the Others are the Starks of Winterfell and by TWOW, that will still be the case. The Starks need Winterfell to rally the North. Stannis needed it to do the same. And it makes the most sense storywise, if a Stark has to do the hard work to win it back. The Starks are the story's protagonists and two sons of Winterfell have more experience with the Others than any other character. Not to mention, male Starks tend to die in stupid ways so they'll need their smarter, more politically astute sisters to help them figure out how to play the game so they stay alive to actually, you know...save people. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Ramsay is most likely no longer going to be a problem when Jon is on his (human) feet again. The coming battle(s) should decide his fate.

Too easy. Jon wakes up and gets free gifts! "hey, thanks for killing Ramsay for me! and thanks for helping me win that castle I need to rally the North!" It also undoes the rules of the universe. A southern commander should not be able to win a Northern ground war during winter and a resurrected character will not just be allowed to be freed from the mission he went on before he died. I agree that it would be fitting if Theon killed Ramsay but, he saved Jeyne. I think that's his last hero moment for a while. Ramsay and Jon have a rivalry going now, and it's not exactly a distraction, for reasons I described above.  

[Lord Varys]

15 minutes ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

So when Ned says that when Winter comes, "the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives" he really meant, they can all work as isolated lone wolves during Winter and everything will come out fine and dandy for them. 

I don't exactly think Ned is right whenever he speaks, nor necessarily at this point - especially not in relation to the future of the series.

The Stark children will never be on one page again considering how different they have become now, each living through their own stories and traumas.

15 minutes ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

Said by a man who is smarter than anyone in the NW at that point. He says they can try to warn the kings playing their game of thrones but southerners won't care.

He is not necessarily right about that, is he? Somebody will warn the people down in the south and eventually they will care.

15 minutes ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

The wording is foreshadowing. The best hope of defeating the Others are the Starks of Winterfell and by TWOW, that will still be the case. The Starks need Winterfell to rally the North. Stannis needed it to do the same. And it makes the most sense storywise, if a Stark has to do the hard work to win it back. The Starks are the story's protagonists and two sons of Winterfell have more experience with the Others than any other character. Not to mention, male Starks tend to die in stupid ways so they'll need their smarter, more politically astute sisters to help them figure out how to play the game so they stay alive to actually, you know...save people. 

They were the best hope - now they are not. The Starks can gather at Winterfell all day long - Robb Stark saw to it that 15,000-16,000 Northmen died in the south.

And at this point pretty much nobody has had that much experience with the Others. Neither Brandon nor Jon know anything important about the Others (although I'm pretty sure Bran's knowledge will be rather thorough on the topic in the very near future).

15 minutes ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

Too easy. Jon wakes up and gets free gifts! "hey, thanks for killing Ramsay for me! and thanks for helping me win that castle I need to rally the North!" It also undoes the rules of the universe. A southern commander should not be able to win a Northern ground war during winter and a resurrected character will not just be allowed to be freed from the mission he went on before he died. I agree that it would be fitting if Theon killed Ramsay but, he saved Jeyne. I think that's his last hero moment for a while. Ramsay and Jon have a rivalry going now, and it's not exactly a distraction, for reasons I described above.  

Ramsay was never Jon's to kill. They don't know each other, and they don't even have that much issues with each other.

If Stannis loses, Jon won't stand a chance against the Boltons. Even if the remnants of the Stark loyalists in the North would gather behind him (which Manderly at least does not intend to do) they would not have the men left to do much considering that a Bolton victory over Stannis means a Bolton victory over Stannis' Northmen, too.

[Nevets]

9 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't exactly think Ned is right whenever he speaks, nor necessarily at this point - especially not in relation to the future of the series.

The Stark children will never be on one page again considering how different they have become now, each living through their own stories and traumas.

I think Ned's words (or more accurately, Martin's words in Ned's mouth) are intended as foreshadowing that the Stark kids will ultimately get together again, and will be stronger together than they would be separately.  That they ultimately end up working together I do not doubt.

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Ramsay was never Jon's to kill. They don't know each other, and they don't even have that much issues with each other.

If Stannis loses, Jon won't stand a chance against the Boltons. Even if the remnants of the Stark loyalists in the North would gather behind him (which Manderly at least does not intend to do) they would not have the men left to do much considering that a Bolton victory over Stannis means a Bolton victory over Stannis' Northmen, too.

You are ignoring the possibility of stalemate.  Either a siege of Winterfell, or possibly a siege of Dreadfort.  Or possibly Ramsay running around loose with a relatively small force of loyal men.  All possibilities, and all could prove troublesome to both Stannis and Jon.

As to Jon himself, I am quite skeptical that he is actually dead.  If so, I don't think he will be out long.  NOr will he abandon the mission of the NW (although he might leave in order to better carry it out).

[Lord Varys]

6 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I think Ned's words (or more accurately, Martin's words in Ned's mouth) are intended as foreshadowing that the Stark kids will ultimately get together again, and will be stronger together than they would be separately.  That they ultimately end up working together I do not doubt.

I don't doubt that. I just very much doubt the actual Stark siblings will be needing the help of some Targaryen prince to lead or protect them. They have grown as characters, too. They don't need Jon to help them.

6 minutes ago, Nevets said:

You are ignoring the possibility of stalemate.  Either a siege of Winterfell, or possibly a siege of Dreadfort.  Or possibly Ramsay running around loose with a relatively small force of loyal men.  All possibilities, and all could prove troublesome to both Stannis and Jon.

I don't ignore that, I just don't think this story - especially Ramsay's story - is going to be dragged on much further now. Roose I could see getting away. He is smart and competent. George's Ramsay is neither a genius nor an effective battle commander.

However, considering betrayal and backstabbing potential Stannis' people have right now - the co-opted Karstark thing, the lake, the Manderlys, the other Northmen inside Winterfell, the chances of the attackers using a secret tunnel to gain access to Winterfell, etc. - I see pretty much no chance for a 'stalemate'. 

6 minutes ago, Nevets said:

As to Jon himself, I am quite skeptical that he is actually dead.  If so, I don't think he will be out long.  NOr will he abandon the mission of the NW (although he might leave in order to better carry it out).

There is no point in injuring Jon severely or killing him if he is just going to jump up, crying: 'SURPRISE! Fooled'ya!'

The aftermath of the assassination will have lasting effects, both at the Wall in general and in Jon personally. And Winterfell and the Boltons will be the last of his concerns after that, considering how far away the place is.

[divica]

4 minutes ago, Nevets said:

You are ignoring the possibility of stalemate.  Either a siege of Winterfell, or possibly a siege of Dreadfort.  Or possibly Ramsay running around loose with a relatively small force of loyal men.  All possibilities, and all could prove troublesome to both Stannis and Jon.

As to Jon himself, I am quite skeptical that he is actually dead.  If so, I don't think he will be out long.  NOr will he abandon the mission of the NW (although he might leave in order to better carry it out).

I find it much more likely that the northmen will desert stannis.

Lets look at the facts. There isn t any food left in the village, stannis sourtherns are rapidly dying and there aren t that many of them left, stannis has no way of sieging winterfell for a long period of time and farya is already safe.

So half the objectives of the clansmen are already accomplished (save farya) and the other half (kill boltons) are basically impossible at the moment. Even worse, they are risking going to war against other northerns (the other northern houses in winterfell besides the boltons) for stannis. I mean, what are they supposed to do if stannis takes winterfell? support whoever he choses as warden of the north? It sounds unlikely...

In addition, if they are risking death by starvation they might as well return home or to the Wall (there is something going on with the clans for them to sending their leaders for the wedding at Wall acording to jon). 

In face of certain defeat, with starvation and with stannis being a Southern that lets his men burn people alive and worships a fire god I don t see any motive for the clansmen to continue there

[divica]

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no point in injuring Jon severely or killing him if he is just going to jump up, crying: 'SURPRISE! Fooled'ya!'

The aftermath of the assassination will have lasting effects, both at the Wall in general and in Jon personally. And Winterfell and the Boltons will be the last of his concerns after that, considering how far away the place is.

Not everything needs to have a special meaning. As far as we know this attempt might serve to teach jon to be cautius in the future so that he doesn t have the same fate as robb or ned. And jon will be very concerned with winterfell because "ramsay" just said he will attack the Wall if he doesn t return arya to him. So it is a very urgente problem.

 

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't ignore that, I just don't think this story - especially Ramsay's story - is going to be dragged on much further now. Roose I could see getting away. He is smart and competent. George's Ramsay is neither a genius nor an effective battle commander.

However, considering betrayal and backstabbing potential Stannis' people have right now - the co-opted Karstark thing, the lake, the Manderlys, the other Northmen inside Winterfell, the chances of the attackers using a secret tunnel to gain access to Winterfell, etc. - I see pretty much no chance for a 'stalemate'. 

Ramsay fooled everyone and conquered winterfell. He is smart!

And the problem with stannis is that he doesn t know that he has allies. So how can he make decisions based on information he doesn t have?

Even if stannis defeats the freys can you give me a reason why he should attack winterfell with almost no food and siege weapons? How is he supposed to conquer it? And as I said in the post above why would the clansmen follow him?

 

The only sane thing stannis should do is capture as many horses from the freys as possible and try to find enough food in the north to return to the Wall and wait for his sellswords from essos.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, divica said:

Not everything needs to have a special meaning. As far as we know this attempt might serve to teach jon to be cautius in the future so that he doesn t have the same fate as robb or ned. And jon will be very concerned with winterfell because "ramsay" just said he will attack the Wall if he doesn t return arya to him. So it is a very urgente problem.

Jon already suffered the same fate as Robb and Ned. Getting killed is not 'a lesson'.

They will soon get genuine and good information on the Winterfell situation, information that's either making a campaign unnecessary or even more suicidal.

Once the banker shows up Jon doesn't need to avenge Stannis or take Winterfell. Neither after 'his sister' has arrived at the Wall. He can wait for Stannis' sellswords to do that job for him. Or he could lead them once they arrive. They would make things much easier than trying to attack the Boltons with the wildlings - or doing something as mad as using them as a siege force (!).

3 minutes ago, divica said:

Ramsay fooled everyone and conquered winterfell. He is smart!

No, he is not. He fooled people like Theon Greyjoy - who is a self-involved moron - and Rodrik Cassel - who isn't the smartest man on the planet, either.

Outmaneuvering people who don't know you and who don't perceive you as an enemy isn't exactly the work of a genius.

3 minutes ago, divica said:

And the problem with stannis is that he doesn t know that he has allies. So how can he make decisions based on information he doesn t have?

He has taken advantage of the Karstark thing. And he has the lake.

3 minutes ago, divica said:

Even if stannis defeats the freys can you give me a reason why he should attack winterfell with almost no food and siege weapons? How is he supposed to conquer it? And as I said in the post above why would the clansmen follow him?

Easy enough - he told us he would build siege engines and besiege and take Winterfell or die. He won't give up. No matter what.

3 minutes ago, divica said:

The only sane thing stannis should do is capture as many horses from the freys as possible and try to find enough food in the north to return to the Wall and wait for his sellswords from essos.

He is not going to do stuff like that. And unless the Freys/Ramsay defeat him at the lake - which is not very likely - he'll take Winterfell. He will learn that Manderly is on his side, and they will find a way to get inside Winterfell without a long and tedious siege. In fact, receiving the news of Stannis' victory at the village might be enough to cause sufficient Northmen desert and/or turn against Roose that Stannis is actually going to find the gates of Winterfell wide open when he and his men finally arrive there.

[divica]

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Jon already suffered the same fate as Robb and Ned. Getting killed is not 'a lesson'.

They will soon get genuine and good information on the Winterfell situation, information that's either making a campaign unnecessary or even more suicidal.

Once the banker shows up Jon doesn't need to avenge Stannis or take Winterfell. Neither after 'his sister' has arrived at the Wall. He can wait for Stannis' sellswords to do that job for him. Or he could lead them once they arrive. They would make things much easier than trying to attack the Boltons with the wildlings - or doing something as mad as using them as a siege force (!).

you don t know that he is dead. He might be just very injured.

And even if he is dead it still is a lesson just so that he doesn t let it happen again…

 

The problem is that you are forgetting that ramsay said he would atack CB. so jon can t wait several months for stannis sellswords to do the job for him. And farya left before the battle started and I don t remembre about the banker but he probably went with farya or is sightseeing the north… so jon doesn t have information that contradicts the pink letter. Therefore the boltons and winterfell are still a major problem for jon that can use the wildlings to climb the walls of winterfell during the night and open the gates or enter through the cripts… so jon attacking winterfell does have a high percentage of sucess.

 

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

No, he is not. He fooled people like Theon Greyjoy - who is a self-involved moron - and Rodrik Cassel - who isn't the smartest man on the planet, either.

Outmaneuvering people who don't know you and who don't perceive you as an enemy isn't exactly the work of a genius.

 

He fooled rodrik and whoever was advising him. ramsay has fooled everybody he wanted so far and stannis doesn t really take him seriously… 

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

He has taken advantage of the Karstark thing. And he has the lake.

Easy enough - he told us he would build siege engines and besiege and take Winterfell or die. He won't give up. No matter what.

 

The karstarks and the lake (if it will be a thing) will only be of use against the freys.

And stannis can do whatever he wants. The question is if the clansmen will follow him. And with farya saved, starvation, the impossibility of sucess,stannis faith, burning people and that there are alot of northerns inside winterfell besides boltons it is very doubtfull that they will follow stannis.

Then if they desert stannis will atack winterfell with 500 southerns? really?

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

He is not going to do stuff like that. And unless the Freys/Ramsay defeat him at the lake - which is not very likely - he'll take Winterfell. He will learn that Manderly is on his side, and they will find a way to get inside Winterfell without a long and tedious siege. In fact, receiving the news of Stannis' victory at the village might be enough to cause sufficient Northmen desert and/or turn against Roose that Stannis is actually going to find the gates of Winterfell wide open when he and his men finally arrive there.

The big problem with all that is that the northern conspiracy in winterfel is led by wyman. And without davos apearing stannis will never believe wyman is on his side and that he didn t kill davos. So they won t join forces in the near future and therefore we don t know if the northmen inside winterfell will rebel against roose when stannis atacks... 

Besides, when wyman sees the size of stannis army (the southerns) do you think he will abdicate the northern indepence in rickon's name when he doesn t need stannis army?

Hell, with robbs will around do you think wyman can unite the north with himself as regent of a northern warden that is a wild kid? the only way to unite the north is with a KitN...

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't exactly think Ned is right whenever he speaks, nor necessarily at this point - especially not in relation to the future of the series.

You dismiss that quote, you end up with bad predictions. My guess is that family love will be the only motivator for an apathetic Jon, post-resurrection. If not, Jon has no intrinsic motivation to fight the Others. It's just more Gandalf the White.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't doubt that. I just very much doubt the actual Stark siblings will be needing the help of some Targaryen prince to lead or protect them. They have grown as characters, too. They don't need Jon to help them.

Oh jesus fucking christ. Growth doesnt mean growing apart from your siblings!!!!!!! THE STORY IS ABOUT A FAMILY THAT LOVES EACH OTHER IN CONTRAST TO THE FAMILIES THAT USE EACH OTHER (Baratheons, Lannisters, Targaryens, Martells, Tyrells).

Jon has an important role preventing his siblings from becoming ice zombies. Unless you think he'll just spend the rest of his time in the story becoming a Targaryen and slowly morphing into a Dany clone. Which sounds like how you see him, based on that description. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He is not necessarily right about that, is he? Somebody will warn the people down in the south and eventually they will care.

True, he didn't anticipate Stannis, which is a great plot twist. But that doesn't invalidate his point that the Starks are the family who is historically linked to face threats beyond Wall, since they've had a good 6,000 years of experience with it. House Stark must rally the North at the end of TWOW or at least at the start of ADOS. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Stark children will never be on one page again considering how different they have become now, each living through their own stories and traumas.

You're basically deleting the entire story with this statement. Having them get back together, after becoming different people and living through their own stories, is the story. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They were the best hope - now they are not. The Starks can gather at Winterfell all day long - Robb Stark saw to it that 15,000-16,000 Northmen died in the south.

It's flawed thinking to use Robb as a stand-in for "Starks." The point is to have the other Starks learn from Robb's and Ned's mistakes. Any writer worth his salt would have them do that. That's called a good story arc. 

I see a lot of statements dismissing the Starks and I find it really mind boggling. Bran and Jon are treated as side characters in the fight against the Others.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 And at this point pretty much nobody has had that much experience with the Others. Neither Brandon nor Jon know anything important about the Others (although I'm pretty sure Bran's knowledge will be rather thorough on the topic in the very near future).

This is a Winds prediction subforum so .  .  . I can see how they will be the de facto Others experts in that book. Of course there will still be a lot they don't know. But they'll be far more prepared than Daenerys, Mel, Stannis, or whoever else. Maybe Coldhands and Leaf but they are minor characters. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If Stannis loses, Jon won't stand a chance against the Boltons. Even if the remnants of the Stark loyalists in the North would gather behind him (which Manderly at least does not intend to do) they would not have the men left to do much considering that a Bolton victory over Stannis means a Bolton victory over Stannis' Northmen, too.

So basically you're saying Stannis will defeat Ramsay, but Jon, the 16 year old who had to tell a tested battle commander what to do in terms of strategy, cannot. It is the author's job to imagine ways for Jon to accomplish something that seems "impossible." You really can't come up with anything? 

[Guest]

58 minutes ago, divica said:

The problem is that you are forgetting that ramsay said he would atack CB. so jon can t wait several months for stannis sellswords to do the job for him. And farya left before the battle started and I don t remembre about the banker but he probably went with farya or is sightseeing the north… so jon doesn t have information that contradicts the pink letter. Therefore the boltons and winterfell are still a major problem for jon that can use the wildlings to climb the walls of winterfell during the night and open the gates or enter through the cripts… so jon attacking winterfell does have a high percentage of sucess.

I also think Ramsay and his Northern allies won't allow wildlings beyond the Wall, so that ruins Jon's original plans to integrate them into the North. Jon has to fight for the vision of the North that he wants to build. He can't stay at the Wall and stare down the Others for the next two books. He has to get his hands dirty with Northern politics if he wants to actually save people.

Anyway, I sometimes think of how stupid Jon would look telling everyone that the Others are coming! the Others are coming! Meanwhile, Ramsay is terrorizing the countryside, trying to kill him and flay girls for fun. Hey girls who are chased by Ramsay's dogs - be comforted in the knowledge that Jon is trying to save you from ice zombies. Keep your chin up! Bolton has to stay in power because. . . reasons.

[Euron III Greyjoy]

4 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

As to what kind of character Jon will be post-resurrection, I think his motives will narrow. He won't really care about the noble goal of "saving everyone" - that's too much like Gandalf the White. Deep down, he'll only care about saving his family ("wolfpack") and that involves taking back Winterfell for them. According to GRRM's comments on Gandalf, Beric, and Lady Stoneheart, Jon should be transformed after his resurrection; he won't be a better person; he won't be improved; he’ll be worse for wear; he’ll be a different character; he will have lost something of himself; he won't come back nicer, or more powerful, he'll have more weaknesses; he may be mistrustful and cold toward outsiders; his memories can’t be trusted; he may slip into moments where he confuses his past with the present; he may mix up people and events; he will do morally questionable things; he would be clinging to his mission before he died, which was to kill Ramsay and save his sister.

That said, I do see a difference between Jon and the other resurrected characters - Ghost will preserve Jon's soul and hopefully his humanity. 

Whilst I do think Jon will come back different, I don't think it will be the same as the likes of Stoneheart and Beric. As you said Ghost will preserve Jon's soul, unlike Catelyn and Beric who aren't skinchangers and didn't have anywhere to send their souls when they died. I think Jon will come back more feral so to speak, since I doubt he will come back straight away, which means he would've spent too long inside his direwolf. I could also see him loosing some memories or something if he spends too long outside of his own body, the question is what could he forget? The most tragic thing would be him forgetting some of his past with Arya. 

[Lord Varys]

14 hours ago, divica said:

you don t know that he is dead. He might be just very injured.

And even if he is dead it still is a lesson just so that he doesn t let it happen again…

But you cannot learn that lesson. There is no complete safety against assassination or murder.

If he were only very injured he would be out of the game even longer than if he is dead, considering how long it should take for his wounds to heal.

14 hours ago, divica said:

The problem is that you are forgetting that ramsay said he would atack CB. so jon can t wait several months for stannis sellswords to do the job for him. And farya left before the battle started and I don t remembre about the banker but he probably went with farya or is sightseeing the north… so jon doesn t have information that contradicts the pink letter. Therefore the boltons and winterfell are still a major problem for jon that can use the wildlings to climb the walls of winterfell during the night and open the gates or enter through the cripts… so jon attacking winterfell does have a high percentage of sucess.

Whatever Ramsay said, once the real information about what transpired at/near Winterfell, it will become clear that Ramsay (assuming that fool even lives!) won't have the men or resources to actually threaten the men at the Wall.

Tycho accompanied Jeyne.

The wildlings won't be able to either storm or besiege Winterfell. They are not trained soldiers nor have they people with them who understand all that.

14 hours ago, divica said:

He fooled rodrik and whoever was advising him. ramsay has fooled everybody he wanted so far and stannis doesn t really take him seriously… 

Ramsay only succeeded because nobody at Winterfell knew him by sight. Anyone could pull off what he did, especially after he could ingratiate himself with a moron like Theon.

14 hours ago, divica said:

The karstarks and the lake (if it will be a thing) will only be of use against the freys.

That depends on what Roose has planned for the Karstarks and how Stannis intends to use them. Perhaps he'll use the lake for the Freys and the Karstarks for Ramsay/Roose/the Bolton army?

14 hours ago, divica said:

And stannis can do whatever he wants. The question is if the clansmen will follow him. And with farya saved, starvation, the impossibility of sucess,stannis faith, burning people and that there are alot of northerns inside winterfell besides boltons it is very doubtfull that they will follow stannis.

The clansmen want to bathe in Bolton blood. Stannis will give him that.

14 hours ago, divica said:

The big problem with all that is that the northern conspiracy in winterfel is led by wyman. And without davos apearing stannis will never believe wyman is on his side and that he didn t kill davos. So they won t join forces in the near future and therefore we don t know if the northmen inside winterfell will rebel against roose when stannis atacks... 

One would assume that Wyman has some letter from Davos explaining things to Stannis. A letter that is going to be delivered to Stannis by Manderly men turning their cloak. Else the entire thing will most definitely fail.

14 hours ago, divica said:

Besides, when wyman sees the size of stannis army (the southerns) do you think he will abdicate the northern indepence in rickon's name when he doesn t need stannis army?

Wyman has no intention to continue an independence thing.

14 hours ago, divica said:

Hell, with robbs will around do you think wyman can unite the north with himself as regent of a northern warden that is a wild kid? the only way to unite the north is with a KitN...

Robb's will is irrelevant if Lord Wyman has Robb Stark's full brother who is neither a bastard nor dead.

16 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

You dismiss that quote, you end up with bad predictions. My guess is that family love will be the only motivator for an apathetic Jon, post-resurrection. If not, Jon has no intrinsic motivation to fight the Others. It's just more Gandalf the White.

Jon doesn't need a family to fight the good fight.

16 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

Oh jesus fucking christ. Growth doesnt mean growing apart from your siblings!!!!!!! THE STORY IS ABOUT A FAMILY THAT LOVES EACH OTHER IN CONTRAST TO THE FAMILIES THAT USE EACH OTHER (Baratheons, Lannisters, Targaryens, Martells, Tyrells).

That is pretty much nonsense, considering that the Tyrells and Martells are more functional families than the others you mention.

Whether the Starks will really love the person they grew into after they meet again I'm not sure. Would you really *love* the creature Arya became? She may remain your sister but chances are that relations won't be as warm as they have been before.

Or Bran - who might be pretty omniscient - still your brother, but in another sense almost a god.

16 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

Jon has an important role preventing his siblings from becoming ice zombies. Unless you think he'll just spend the rest of his time in the story becoming a Targaryen and slowly morphing into a Dany clone. Which sounds like how you see him, based on that description. 

No, I just pointed out that Jon Snow actually isn't a Stark. He is a Targaryen prince.

16 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

True, he didn't anticipate Stannis, which is a great plot twist. But that doesn't invalidate his point that the Starks are the family who is historically linked to face threats beyond Wall, since they've had a good 6,000 years of experience with it. House Stark must rally the North at the end of TWOW or at least at the start of ADOS. 

The Starks are not linked to the War for the Dawn and the Long Night, only to the aftermath - Brandon the Builder helping to build the Wall.

16 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

You're basically deleting the entire story with this statement. Having them get back together, after becoming different people and living through their own stories, is the story. 

Might be. Or not. Do you know the end of the story?

16 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

It's flawed thinking to use Robb as a stand-in for "Starks." The point is to have the other Starks learn from Robb's and Ned's mistakes. Any writer worth his salt would have them do that. That's called a good story arc. 

The point was that Robb lost a lot of men. Uniting the North before the Red Wedding could have made a great difference. Uniting the North now, after the Winterfell battle(s), the North can unite all day, it won't stand much of a chance against the Others.

16 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

I see a lot of statements dismissing the Starks and I find it really mind boggling. Bran and Jon are treated as side characters in the fight against the Others.

They are not side characters.

16 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

This is a Winds prediction subforum so .  .  . I can see how they will be the de facto Others experts in that book. Of course there will still be a lot they don't know. But they'll be far more prepared than Daenerys, Mel, Stannis, or whoever else. Maybe Coldhands and Leaf but they are minor characters. 

Providing people with knowledge doesn't mean they will decide the fate of everything. I'm pretty sure Jon will play a (or perhaps even the) crucial role in the fight against the Others, but this doesn't mean he has to unite the North or anything of that sort.

16 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

So basically you're saying Stannis will defeat Ramsay, but Jon, the 16 year old who had to tell a tested battle commander what to do in terms of strategy, cannot. It is the author's job to imagine ways for Jon to accomplish something that seems "impossible." You really can't come up with anything? 

I don't think Ramsay is a very important character in the overall story, nor do I think he has been built up to be Jon's great antagonist.

[a black swan]

22 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But you cannot learn that .Whether the Starks will really love the person they grew into after they meet again I'm not sure. Would you really *love* the creature Arya became? She may remain your sister but chances are that relations won't be as warm as they have been before.

She's just a creature now? I see your hate for her runs deep. Dehumanizing her to this level says a lot. 

Arya has never stopped loving or feeling or caring. She still enjoys living a simple life and showing kindness to strangers and making friends, memories of her home and her moonlit dreams. Simply reducing her to an inhuman monster is grossly unfair to the writing and the character.

She isn't a creature not worth loving. If you can't see that, luckily many others can. 

Jon of all people would understand what she has been through and love her nonetheless. Your deep aversion and bias against Arya won't change that. 

[Guest]

52 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Jon doesn't need a family to fight the good fight.

Kraznys breeds warriors who don't have families and who don't love. Is that what you think should happen to him? 

He needs to fight for something other than "generalized Westeros."

He won't give a flip about saving people who aren't in his immediate family.

And that's what makes him darker, post-resurrection. 

57 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Whether the Starks will really love the person they grew into after they meet again I'm not sure. Would you really *love* the creature Arya became? She may remain your sister but chances are that relations won't be as warm as they have been before. Or Bran - who might be pretty omniscient - still your brother, but in another sense almost a god.

The point is they need each other to help process their traumas and come back together as a family unit. Of course it won't be happy, but that's what they have to do or they'll end up dead. They each have assets that the others lack. Sansa is heavily foreshadowed to rebuild Winterfell with Jon. His ideas about building glass gardens around the North is innovative and isn't something Sansa could do on her own. Likewise, Jon thinks his best hope of getting food is from the Vale, but knows he lacks the family ties to do that. Voila, enter Sansa. Moreover, Arya and Sansa were already at each other's throats in Book 1. This causes Ned to give out some of the most important advice of the series:

Quote

 

“Let me tell you something about wolves, child. When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives. Summer is the time for squabbles. In winter, we must protect one another, keep each other warm, share our strengths. So if you must hate, Arya, hate those who would truly do us harm. Septa Mordane is a good woman, and Sansa . . . Sansa is your sister. You may be as different as the sun and the moon, but the same blood flows through both your hearts. You need her, as she needs you . . . and I need both of you, gods help me.”

 

You need her, they need you, Jon needs them, they need Jon, they all need Bran, Rickon needs . . . any help he can get. Their differences aren't a sign that they will never work together again. That is the obstacle to overcome, where the angst happens in all good writing. Moreover, this relates to the story's theme: Winter is coming and Ned is telling them how they can survive it.

And you are saying, this is not that important and can be easily dismissed, because...actually I dont know why you think that. My guess is you're just not a Stark fan.

Quote

 

That is pretty much nonsense, considering that the Tyrells and Martells are more functional families than the others you mention.

 

Arianne has decided that Quentyn is robbing her birthright, Doran uses her as a bargaining chip to seek vengeance, and imprisons her in a tower for days. Not exactly the paragon of familial love. The Tyrells are the Starks if they were all arrogant social climbers. In the end the Starks will be foils for all of these families. No doubt getting along will be difficult but having to learn how to unite as a wolf pack is what makes the story interesting.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

No, I just pointed out that Jon Snow actually isn't a Stark. He is a Targaryen prince.

He's raised a Stark, so he is a Stark. If his Stark upbringing didn't matter and he was reduced to "Targ prince" he might as well be fAegon. He's the anti-Targ who is a Targ in name only.

This fact will only push him closer to his family, not further away.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Might be. Or not. Do you know the end of the story?

The Stark POV comprises 47% of all chapters. So this is a story primarily about them. They dream of Winterfell and of seeing each other again. They currently think that's impossible - but the reader should know better. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The point was that Robb lost a lot of men. Uniting the North before the Red Wedding could have made a great difference. Uniting the North now, after the Winterfell battle(s), the North can unite all day, it won't stand much of a chance against the Others.

What do you think Jon will be doing in TWOW since you're shutting down every possible plot? 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think Ramsay is a very important character in the overall story, nor do I think he has been built up to be Jon's great antagonist.

Like all villains he drives the plot of the POV characters. Ramsay stole the position Jon always wanted in his deepest dreams. Jon stole Ramsay's legitimacy. It's great drama. The Others are boring villains in comparison.

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, a black swan said:

She's just a creature now? I see your hate for her runs deep. Dehumanizing her to this level says a lot. 

Arya has never stopped loving or feeling or caring. She still enjoys living a simple life and showing kindness to strangers and making friends, memories of her home and her moonlit dreams. Simply reducing her to an inhuman monster is grossly unfair to the writing and the character.

She isn't a creature not worth loving. If you can't see that, luckily many others can. 

Jon of all people would understand what she has been through and love her nonetheless. Your deep aversion and bias against Arya won't change that. 

Sorry that you have issues with how I feel about fictional serial killers.

Any person not having issues with what Arya did and what she became would have severe issues, too. What she does is not normal, not even in a world like this. But, hey, perhaps an undead cousin can understand all that - although I doubt it. We see how Jon thinks of and imagines Arya to be in ADwD, and that image has literally nothing to do with the person she became.

3 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

Kraznys breeds warriors who don't have families and who don't love. Is that what you think should happen to him?

He needs to fight for something other than "generalized Westeros."

He won't give a flip about saving people who aren't in his immediate family.

And that's what makes him darker, post-resurrection. 

Or perhaps his death after he abandoned all humanity in favor of some girl who isn't even his sister (as we will learn soon, presumably) teaches him the value of the vows of the NW after all - that you should not allow your special interests and emotions rule you when the fate and wellbeing of mankind as a whole (or at least the people of Westeros) are at stake?

Jon doesn't need members of his family to tell him that the Others winning or making progress is very bad. He can see this with the wildling refugees already.

3 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

The point is they need each other to help process their traumas and come back together as a family unit. Of course it won't be happy, but that's what they have to do or they'll end up dead. They each have assets that the others lack. Sansa is heavily foreshadowed to rebuild Winterfell with Jon. His ideas about building glass gardens around the North is innovative and isn't something Sansa could do on her own. Likewise, Jon thinks his best hope of getting food is from the Vale, but knows he lacks the family ties to do that. Voila, enter Sansa. Moreover, Arya and Sansa were already at each other's throats in Book 1. This causes Ned to give out some of the most important advice of the series:

You need her, they need you, Jon needs them, they need Jon, they all need Bran, Rickon needs . . . any help he can get. Their differences aren't a sign that they will never work together again. That is the obstacle to overcome, where the angst happens in all good writing. Moreover, this relates to the story's theme: Winter is coming and Ned is telling them how they can survive it.

I never said I think they won't come together again nor that they wouldn't work together. I just said that they don't need Jon for that. That is an important difference.

I've said for ages that they will all have to come together to make common cause against the Others to defeat them. That includes the Stark children (although I honestly don't see what Arya can contribute to that).

3 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

And you are saying, this is not that important and can be easily dismissed, because...actually I dont know why you think that. My guess is you're just not a Stark fan.

I'm not sure what this means. I like pretty much any character in this series. I don't have to be a fan of this or that fictional character and dislike another to like this series.

3 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

Arianne has decided that Quentyn is robbing her birthright, Doran uses her as a bargaining chip to seek vengeance, and imprisons her in a tower for days. Not exactly the paragon of familial love. The Tyrells are the Starks if they were all arrogant social climbers. In the end the Starks will be foils for all of these families. No doubt getting along will be difficult but having to learn how to unite as a wolf pack is what makes the story interesting.

Arianne and Quentyn are not close, but Oberyn and Doran were, and Doran actually cares for his children and his family and his people more than any other ruler in this series. That is just a fact. That not everything works out for the Martells and that Arianne actually made a mistake when believing that Quentyn and Doran were plotting against her doesn't change that.

Sansa and Arya didn't get along very well, either.

3 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

He's raised a Stark, so he is a Stark. If his Stark upbringing didn't matter and he was reduced to "Targ prince" he might as well be fAegon. He's the anti-Targ who is a Targ in name only.

Biologically, he is not a Stark. If Jon is a Stark so is Theon (at least half), Ned and Robert are Arryns, and so forth. Besides, the idea that the Targaryens don't know what family means, etc. is clearly wrong. They get along as well with their kin as the other families do - sometimes they are close, sometimes they are not.

3 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

This fact will only push him closer to his family, not further away.

Well, there is obviously a lot of room for conflict there. I think we would all be pissed if we realized that 'our father' didn't trust us enough to tell us the truth, even when we were making a decision that would change out entire life. A decision we might not make if we knew who we actually were.

But that's just me.

3 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

The Stark POV comprises 47% of all chapters. So this is a story primarily about them. They dream of Winterfell and of seeing each other again. They currently think that's impossible - but the reader should know better. 

Ned and Cat are no longer POVs for obvious reasons, and Brandon, Sansa, and Arya do not feature all that prominently in AFfC and ADwD, do they? They are not exactly *the* main characters.

3 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

What do you think Jon will be doing in TWOW since you're shutting down every possible plot? 

Oh, I think he'll first spend some time in Ghost. Then he'll recover and try to make the best out of his very strange and unnatural situation once he is back in his own resurrected body. That should be a very compelling and interesting personal story, depending how it is told.

Hopefully he also learns stuff about the true enemy and works together with Stannis after his return to the Wall on how to stop the attack of the Others on the Wall. Depending when he is going to return he'll also have to deal with the situation at the Wall (if Melisandre and the wildlings don't do that for him), afterwards they will have to deal with the Weeper and his army who are most likely going to attack the Shadow Tower via the Bridge of Skulls, destroy it, and invade the Gifts and the North. Somebody will have to put him down or resolve the situation somehow.

Perhaps we'll get some interaction with the Others then, an attempt to attack them before they are ready, etc.

The reason why I think we won't get another Winterfell campaign simply is that this would mean we would basically get the ADwD plot again in TWoW with Jon playing Stannis' role. That just doesn't make much sense, especially since we first have to get Stannis' battle(s) before we could turn to this Jon campaign.

3 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

Like all villains he drives the plot of the POV characters. Ramsay stole the position Jon always wanted in his deepest dreams. Jon stole Ramsay's legitimacy. It's great drama. The Others are boring villains in comparison.

The Others are the true enemy this series is actually building up. Ramsay is just a footnote. Roose Bolton's little bastard. He is not even the guy in charge.

[Nevets]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Biologically, he is not a Stark. If Jon is a Stark so is Theon (at least half), Ned and Robert are Arryns, and so forth. Besides, the idea that the Targaryens don't know what family means, etc. is clearly wrong. They get along as well with their kin as the other families do - sometimes they are close, sometimes they are not.

Lyanna was a Stark.  So unless she isn't a Stark, or she isn't his mother, Jon is a Stark as much as Ned's actual children.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Lyanna was a Stark.  So unless she isn't a Stark, or she isn't his mother, Jon is a Stark as much as Ned's actual children.

Then why don't we call Shireen a Florent, the Stark children Tullys, the Baratheon brothers Estermonts, and so forth?

[kissdbyfire]

12 hours ago, divica said:

The big problem with all that is that the northern conspiracy in winterfel is led by wyman. And without davos apearing stannis will never believe wyman is on his side and that he didn t kill davos

Roose has already sent the Freys and Manderly's men out to find Stannis, ay least in part b/c they were at each others' throats. And each group left Winterfell through a different gate. I'd say there's a good chance the Freys will get caught between Stannis' men (and the lake) and the Manderly men coming up behind them.