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U.S. Politics; Who Watches the Watchers?


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40 minutes ago, the pee tape is real said:

Wow.  Looooool indeed.  That is some shit political science right there.  Look at Appendix B (Tables 4 & 5, pgs. 16-17) which makes up Table 2 (6).  He says these are OLS regressions (4), but he's lying.  He has a conditional he's modeling, or comparing, to 4 other categories ("Far Left" to "Far Right").  Now, he could have left the ideological question as an ordinal variable and run OLS, but that's not what he's interested in as he wants to (forgive me) center in on those that chose "3" on the 1-5 ideological scale.  That's called multinomial probit (or logit, depending on who trains you). 

And what do you see in Appendix B, or Tables 4 and 5?  Inconsistent and often negative results, particularly when the center, or "3s", are compared to the center right and far right, or "4s and 5s."  In terms of tendencies, all this study shows is the further right you are, the more likely you are to agree with authoritarian views based on the WVS.

Moreover, centrism should be high on the authoritarian scale.  Centrists tend to be less educated, less engaged, and more favorable towards an active government based on pragmatism.  The most politically sophisticated are hard partisans, this isn't news.  Although I agree it's part of the problem, ironically in the opposite way this hack is suggesting.

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3 hours ago, Yukle said:

The NFL is the perfect symbol of American fascism: white men owning billion-dollar teams that suck the livelihoods out of their communities with outrageous stadium contracts, controlling the lives of mostly black men whose brains are being destroyed by the sheer violence that their owners denies happens at all.

The crowing glory of the NFL's stupidity is that this is almost entirely in response to a cynical and dangerous manipulative ploy by Trump. Our draft-dodging, veteran-insulting shitheel of a President squeezed every drop of white resentment he could out of this. 

And highlighting the tone-deafness of the NFL's Snowflake Protection Act was the release today of body cam footage by the Milwaukee Police Department that shows their cops tackling and tasing an innocent NBA player for no fucking reason at all.

https://deadspin.com/milwaukee-police-release-video-of-bucks-sterling-brown-1826275081

 

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59 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

Wow.  Looooool indeed.  That is some shit political science right there.  Look at Appendix B (Tables 4 & 5, pgs. 16-17) which makes up Table 2 (6).  He says these are OLS regressions (4), but he's lying.  He has a conditional he's modeling, or comparing, to 4 other categories ("Far Left" to "Far Right").  Now, he could have left the ideological question as an ordinal variable and run OLS, but that's not what he's interested in as he wants to (forgive me) center in on those that chose "3" on the 1-5 ideological scale.  That's called multinomial probit (or logit, depending on who trains you). 

And what do you see in Appendix B, or Tables 4 and 5?  Inconsistent and often negative results, particularly when the center, or "3s", are compared to the center right and far right, or "4s and 5s."  In terms of tendencies, all this study shows is the further right you are, the more likely you are to agree with authoritarian views based on the WVS.

Moreover, centrism should be high on the authoritarian scale.  Centrists tend to be less educated, less engaged, and more favorable towards an active government based on pragmatism.  The most politically sophisticated are hard partisans, this isn't news.  Although I agree it's part of the problem, ironically in the opposite way this hack is suggesting.

Assume that I don't understand the technicalities of this, which is a good assumption because I don't, what are the flaws in the modelling? 

What does multinomial probit mean, for instance?

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1 hour ago, DanteGabriel said:

The crowing glory of the NFL's stupidity is that this is almost entirely in response to a cynical and dangerous manipulative ploy by Trump. Our draft-dodging, veteran-insulting shitheel of a President squeezed every drop of white resentment he could out of this. 

And highlighting the tone-deafness of the NFL's Snowflake Protection Act was the release today of body cam footage by the Milwaukee Police Department that shows their cops tackling and tasing an innocent NBA player for no fucking reason at all.

https://deadspin.com/milwaukee-police-release-video-of-bucks-sterling-brown-1826275081

 

He double parked, man. We're a nation of laws!

If you're not white and rich, I mean.

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5 minutes ago, Yukle said:

Assume that I don't understand the technicalities of this, which is a good assumption because I don't, what are the flaws in the modelling? 

What does multinomial probit mean, for instance?

Sorry about that.  Ok, so multinomial probit is when the dependent variable (DV) can fall into a series of nominal categories.  Regular probit, or logit, is when the DV is a dummy variable.  As in, it's a nominal variable that you code as "0" or "1" that doesn't signify any added value, it's just a matter of if you're male or female.  Now, an ordinal variable does have value due to the number it's assigned:  a "1" as a strong democrat is different than a "5" as a strong republican if you're measuring how much either party's respondents have strong tendencies.   

And you could throw that ideological question into an OLS if you treat it as an ordinal variable.  But that's not what dude did.  He compared the "3" responses on the ideological scale to "1" through "5."  Technically, that's four different regressions.  But the programs these days will do it all for you and spit out the results.  And if you look at that actual output in Appendix B, those results do not support his conclusions.

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12 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

Sorry about that.  Ok, so multinomial probit is when the dependent variable (DV) can fall into a series of nominal categories.  Regular probit, or logit, is when the DV is a dummy variable.  As in, it's a nominal variable that you code as "0" or "1" that doesn't signify any added value, it's just a matter of if you're male or female.  Now, an ordinal variable does have value due to the number it's assigned:  a "1" as a strong democrat is different than a "5" as a strong republican if you're measuring how much either party's respondents have strong tendencies.   

And you could throw that ideological question into an OLS if you treat it as an ordinal variable.  But that's not what dude did.  He compared the "3" responses on the ideological scale to "1" through "5."  Technically, that's four different regressions.  But the programs these days will do it all for you and spit out the results.  And if you look at that actual output in Appendix B, those results do not support his conclusions.

Oooooh, that makes more sense. Thanks. :) 

11 minutes ago, Pony Empress Jace said:

Geez, @Yukle everyone knows about probutts waddaya stupid or something? 

:leaving:

Yeah I know! What a dumbarse.

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16 minutes ago, Pony Empress Jace said:

Geez, @Yukle everyone knows about probutts waddaya stupid or something? 

Hey now!  I think we're all pro butts here.  Isn't that what got Many into trouble?

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6 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

Yeah.  So much.  I stopped watching the NFL in 2012/13 for other but similar reasons and bow looking back I'm kind of surprised I ever gave a shit.  The weird forced 'patriotism' (fascism) shit is the most obvious part of the bs but the whole culture of what on/off field issues the sport and the coverage of it value becomes extremely disgusting extremely quickly with even the most surface exploration.  And that's just what we see after it's all been packaged nicely.   A friend was in the NFL for 11 years and some of the shit he told me pretty much ended my 'fanhood' immediately.

NFL bootlickers: The teams are just worried about their image, all while the same teams sign domestic abusers. That just shows the NFL doesn't care about their own employees being the targets of state sanctioned murder, and they really don't give a flying fuck about women. In fact they are perfectly fine with violence against both people of color and women.

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10 hours ago, Sword of Doom said:

It's disgusting. I know there is an Irish soccer player over in the UK that gets a ton of shit for not wearing one because he does not support how the British military acted in Northern Ireland.


Football here is just the new cotton. 

Minor nitpick: James McClean isn’t Irish, he’s from Northern Ireland.

ETA: realized this probably needed some extra info, as he represents Ireland when playing international football. 

Thing there is, as long as at least one of your grandparents (I think that’s the cutoff) is from another country, you can choose to play for that country. Ireland has been very active in that regard.

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First off, hats off to veterans. What they have done, what they have gone through, and what they have to put up with. Thank you for it all.

But the majority of them are completely not getting it with this NFL thing. They've complained and been upset about the kneeling and have said "that's what I fought for, you're disrespecting it".

But isn't in part what they fought for is the right to protest the anthem like has been done and everything the NFL is doing is what they, in theory, joined to fight against?

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@RorschachMinor nitpick with your minor nitpick: James McClean is Irish. Everyone is Northern Ireland is Irish by nationality, and have a constitutional right to Irish citizenship as well, not through the grandparents. It's just that they have British citizenship as well by virtue of Northern Ireland's membership of the United Kingdom.

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39 minutes ago, Hereward said:

@RorschachMinor nitpick with your minor nitpick: James McClean is Irish. Everyone is Northern Ireland is Irish by nationality, and have a constitutional right to Irish citizenship as well, not through the grandparents. It's just that they have British citizenship as well by virtue of Northern Ireland's membership of the United Kingdom.

I stand nitpicked and corrected.

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1 hour ago, Hereward said:

Minor nitpick with your minor nitpick...

 

45 minutes ago, Rorshach said:

I stand nitpicked and corrected.

What was this?! Civil discussion on the Internet?! Surely that's illegal?! I'M SO DISGUSTED! :P

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2 hours ago, drawkcabi said:

First off, hats off to veterans. What they have done, what they have gone through, and what they have to put up with. Thank you for it all.

But the majority of them are completely not getting it with this NFL thing. They've complained and been upset about the kneeling and have said "that's what I fought for, you're disrespecting it".

But isn't in part what they fought for is the right to protest the anthem like has been done and everything the NFL is doing is what they, in theory, joined to fight against?

You'd think so.... My grandfather, who is very liberal in almost every way, is also a police officer and veteran; and for some reason this works him up because of how disrespectful it is.  Something about using the flag and the anthem for political purposes.  Meanwhile as we speak he has a profile pic of a blue flag with the 'thin blue line' through the middle.  It frustrates me to no end that he doesn't see the hypocrisy.

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3 hours ago, drawkcabi said:

First off, hats off to veterans. What they have done, what they have gone through, and what they have to put up with. Thank you for it all.

But the majority of them are completely not getting it with this NFL thing. They've complained and been upset about the kneeling and have said "that's what I fought for, you're disrespecting it".

But isn't in part what they fought for is the right to protest the anthem like has been done and everything the NFL is doing is what they, in theory, joined to fight against?

I'm not sure it's a "majority" of veterans who object. I've seen plenty saying they agree with the protest or have no problem with it or acknowledge their right to do so. Is there any reliable polling on this?

And it's been conveniently left out of most stories on this topic that a Special Forces veteran named Nate Boyer is the one who talked to Kaepernick while he was sitting for the anthem, and convinced him that kneeling would be more respectful.

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Oh, looks like Trump's Noble will not happen. Trump is upset that Kim Jong Un and wrote a letter about:

Check out @jeneps’s Tweet:

The worst aspect of this is still the very personal matter view International relation. Trump see himself as the U.S and having good relation with Trump means good relations with the U.S. 

 

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As a side note, I'm no handwriting expert, but that signature just screams desperate overcompensation. Are we sure he's actually writing his name, and not scribbling out "I AM A BIG TOUGH POWERFUL MANLY MAN"?

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