So Stannis has literally no good reason for thinking himself king right?

[The Drunkard]

14 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

It seems slightly hypocrital no?

No. Stannis begins to suspect the truth and he approaches the only other honourable man at court so they can investigate. They discover that every one of Robert's children they come across shares his look while not one of the royal children do, and he (potentially) learns that every recorded instance of Baratheon-Lannister pairings ends with the Baratheon look dominating. The healthy Jon Arryn suddenly drops dead. Short of a confession (which he cannot expect to get) he can only assume that all of this is coincidence or else that he and Jon were onto the truth. There is no proof available to him.

The only hypocrisy is that he didn't lay it all down for Robert given he'd probably want his own men to do the same for him, but then neither did anyone who learned the truth. 

[Megorova]

9 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

I’ve heard a theory that Tyene’s mother is none other than the Waynwood who became a Septa.

We know about her mother three things - 1. she was septa; 2. she was reading The Seven-Pointed Star to little Tyene, which means that probably she wasn't from smallfolk (they are mostly illiterate); 3. to see her, Tyene and her companions had to cross Mander river. Tyene spent her youth at the Water Gardens. If they had to go from there, and to cross Mander, then most likely Tyenne's mother is from Westerlands - that's where there are lots of blondes. 

I suspect that maybe Genna Lannister is Tyene's mother She married with Emmon Frey, but even after that kept living at Casterly Rock. Also "genna tyene" from Greek means "born child".

[Lucius Lovejoy]

15 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

So basically another "I don't like this character and no one else should either" thread?

Lol yep, I'm just dissapointed us Stannis-stans didn't get to the thread first.

49 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

No. Stannis begins to suspect the truth and he approaches the only other honourable man at court so they can investigate. They discover that every one of Robert's children they come across shares his look while not one of the royal children do, and he (potentially) learns that every recorded instance of Baratheon-Lannister pairings ends with the Baratheon look dominating. The healthy Jon Arryn suddenly drops dead. Short of a confession (which he cannot expect to get) he can only assume that all of this is coincidence or else that he and Jon were onto the truth. There is no proof available to him.

The only hypocrisy is that he didn't lay it all down for Robert given he'd probably want his own men to do the same for him, but then neither did anyone who learned the truth. 

Exactly this.

I'm surprised I don't see anyone discussing how among Varys and Littlefinger and Tyrion it is an open secret that Cersei's kids belong to Jaime.  Stannis has eyes and ears too, and just because Renly and Robert didn't pick up on this gossip doesn't mean that it was a selfish "speak it into existence" notion that Stannis made up to try to be king.  It was actually true, damnit.  And his involvement of Jon Arryn was important because he was it demonstrates that he (1) knew the gravity of the claim was going to make (2) sought to verify as best as possible the accuracy of his claim and (3) was aware of the optics of how he would become heir if his claim was true and thought it of great importance that someone Robert trust be the one to bear the news.  I can't blame him for getting the hell out of dodge when Jon Arryn died, though he should have gotten in touch with Ned.

I will never read the world book or anything that GRRM writes that is not ASOIAF until the series is finished (so never) and this may be covered there, but I'm curious if Melisandre was at all involved in giving Stannis the notion that Cersei's kids were Jaime's.  I assumed Stannis had no dealings with her until after Jon Arryn's death when he arrived on dragonstone, and thus just suspected it from noticing the same stuff Littlefinger and Varys and their spies notice, but it could be that Mel planted some seeds in his mind.

[TheThreeEyedCow]

Stannis has a reason, yes. The children do not resemble Robert in any way despite his bastards demonstrating Baratheon traits. And Stannis wasn't alone in this. Jon Arryn, a man whom we needn't cast doubt on also suspected this and did not confront Robert. Instead he left the passing words, "The seed is strong". I don't think he's talking about his own son, there. Furthermore, I believe it was Jon Arryn that arranged the marriage of Cersei to the King and even went as far as to suggest that his own son be fostered by Tywin. So there's little to no enmity between Jon and house Lannister; no reason to suspect political bias or sabotage. 

A lot of readers seem perplexed by the fact Stannis didn't go to Robert. Well, this is a catch-22 or paradoxical problem. Stannis has reason, yes. But proof? No. None. But have you seen the way in which the Westerossi derive proof in the absence of modern science? We've seen Tyrion stand trial (a complete farce), and we've also watched the trial by combat. Readers of the Dunk and Egg novella would also of glimpsed a trial of seven. The Westerossi put their faith in god's not men. So, how is Stannis, a man with a complex history with Robert going to convince him of the incest minus Jon Arryn. Jon Arryn being like a father to Robert would of been the realm's best hope of uncovering Cersei's plot. The only sure fire way would be a confession from Cersei...
Jon died and then so too did Ned who offered mercy. With Stannis' relationship with the King at an all time low (Dany and Vis' escape seemed to of truly marred whatever relationship the brothers had left) he stood no chance of reasoning. By withdrawing to DS, Stannis avoided assassination and gathered his strength for the inevitable situation he was going to find himself in. 

Overall, Stannis' line is doomed if he remains no more than the Lord of DS. This seat is reserved for the heir and he couldn't be heir forever. Nor his daughter. With the loss of Storm's end to his brother - Renly, he and his daughter were destined to fight for the crown. He was in a political cul-de-sac. A man who chose his brother over his King probably should of had a more permanent position offered to him. 

Three blonde Baratheons.
Two dead hands.
One rightful King. 

STANNIS! STANNIS! STANNIS! 

[Ralphis Baratheon]

To counter Stannis' claims that Cersei's children's are not Robert's, the Crown tried to spread rumors that Stannis was cuckolded by Patchface and the fool was Shireen's real father. That in itself was stupid and helped prove Stannis' point because Shireen has Stannis' blue eyes and square jaw. None of Cersei's children have any physical traits that belonged to Robert or Baratheons in general. The Crown should have just laughed off the rumors of Cersei and Jaime being together as the ramblings of a mad man making a play for the Throne. Instead they tried to throw mud and it landed right back on them. Alas, Stannis lost at the Blackwater and from that point I don't think anyone cared who fathered Joffrey. He sat the Throne and had the allies to keep him there and that's all that matters in the end.

[Megorova]

2 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Anyways, what exactly provoked Stannis’ suspicions? The looks? The temperament?

I think it was Littlefinger.

I have a theory, how that happened. It's a very farfetched theory (though nearly all of my theories are like that )

Varys is grandson of Calla Blackfyre and Aegor Bittersteel, founder of Golden Company (his mother is Jenny of Oldstones, and Jenny is daughter of the Ghost of High Heart, who is actually Rohanne Webber-Lannister). Varys came to Westeros to prepare 7K for Sixth Rebellion of Blackfyres. He was preparing for it for several years. But then Robert's Rebellion ruined his plans, so he had to wait for many years after that.

In span of his spy activity all over 7K, he recruited all sorts of people to work for him, not only Little Birds, but also people of noble birth (for example Redwynes from the Arbor). Littlefinger was one of Varys' people. Though eventually, after he learned from Varys everything there was, including who else is working for Varys, and what is his further plans, LF ditched him, and decided to work for himself. Originally, when Varys came to Westeros, he was working towards destabilisation of 7K, by planting animosity between Aerys and Rhaegar. He planned to begin civil war between Targaryens, and after that war would have weakened 7K, Varys was going to defeat them with Golden Company (probably at that time, their commander was supposed to be Illyrio, and maybe Illyrio's wife Serra was Varys' sister, so he wanted her to become Queen of 7K).

LF knew about Varys' previous activity, and he also knew that Varys is planning to use the same strategy again - civil war in 7K, then invasion of Golden Company, and then one of Blackfyres will become new King. Though if everything went according to Varys' original plan, then fAegon would have became King of 7K, Varys would have became his Hand, and LF would have stayed as Varys' mere henchman. But LF was not Ok with this outcome, he wanted to gain more power for himself. What made him more ambitious, is his relationship with Lysa. Thru her he managed to get into royal court, even without Varys' help, and even became Master of Coin. So he decided that he doesn't need Varys, he can become someone important, even on his own. Though he decided to partially use Varys' plans.

My guess, is that after Jaime became Kingslayer, Varys was closely watching him. So he knew, that Cersei and Jaime were in a sexual relationship, and he knew about their children, and about Robert's bastards. Probably Varys even knew, that Cersei poisoned Harlan Grandison, to make Jaime a Kingsguard in his place. At that time LF was still working for Varys, so he also knew all of it.

Eventually LF devised a plan, by which in the end of civil war in 7K, and prior arrival of fAegon and Golden Company, he was going to get control over three Kingdoms - The Vale (thru his marriage with Lysa), The North and Riverlands (thru his control or maybe even marriage with Sansa). He decided to use his knowledge of Cersei's and Robert's bastards, to begin confrontation between Starks and Lannisters.

He hinted to Stannis, that Cersei's children could be not Robert's, and adviced him to use help of Jon Arryn, and also where to look - he provided him with whereabouts of Robert's bastards. In parallel to that, he also adviced Jon Arryn to send his son as ward of Stannis to Dragonstone. After Lysa heard about her husband's decision, she run for help to LF. He adviced her to get rid of Jon, and even provided her with poison. Also he suggested her to blame everything on Lannisters. That way he was leaving bread crumbs, for Ned Stark to follow, towards his own execution.

So Stannis' suspicions were intentionally provoked by Littlefinger.

[The Lord of the Crossing]

17 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

So basically another "I don't like this character and no one else should either" thread?

It's a fair inquiry.  

[Lollygag]

8 hours ago, The Transporter said:

To question the fidelity of the reigning queen is serious business.  Eddard and Stan will need better proof than a Baratheon family album.  The best that Stannis can do is cast doubt.  

 

Casting doubt is the best that anyone could do. There is no way to "prove" identity or non-identity with certainty. It all leaves people free to believe what they want.

Just wondering, what better "proof" can you come up with which doesn't leave room for any doubt?

[aryagonnakill#2]

There is a big difference between knowing something, and being able to prove it, but just because you can't prove something doesn't mean you don't know it is a fact.  Even in the real world the genetics would be clear here.  The sheer statistical odds of a black haired guy having 3 blonde haired children are extremely low.  Combine that with the fact that it is not the real world and Robert had 16 black haired bastards(not 18), and that virtually every time a Baratheon married a Lannister it resulted in a black haired child, and it would be ridiculous not to realize they are not Roberts children.

Then Jon Aryn being murdered, come on.  Next are you going to tell us that Rhaenys Targaryens first three black haired children came from Laenor Valyron, when her next three children with another person with Valyrian traits(Daemon) resulted in Valyrian looking children?  Come on.

[Megorova]

3 hours ago, Damon_Tor said:

The whole reason Robert had a claim to the throne to begin with is because his grandmother was a Targaryen. Even if he has no other grandparent with a blonde gene, he still has a 1/4 chance of carrying the recessive gene.

I forgot about her. Though could be that she had dark hair.

Aegon V had 5 children. Jaehaerys and Daeron had lightly-colored hair. Duncan the Small had dark hair. Based on Aerys II and Rhaella both being blond, seems that their mother Shaera also was blonde. Thus we know for sure, that 2 of Egg's children were blond and 1 was dark-haired, and for the other 2 we can assume, that at least one of them (Shaera) was also blonde. Though maybe Rhaelle was dark-haired, same as Duncan, and their mother Betha Blackwood.

Rhaelle (B1b2) + Ormund (B3B4) = Steffon (B1B3 or B1B4 or b2B3 or b2B4).

b - alleles of blond hair, B - alleles of brown hair. BB - dark hair, bb - blond hair, Bb - dark hair, because B is dominant and b is recessive, so in combination they make dark hair.

All possible combinations of Rhaelle's children with Ormund had dark hair, and there was 50% possibility, that their children were carriers of b-alleles (b2B3, b2B4).

Steffon (B1B3 or B1B4 or b2B3 or b2B4) + Cassana (B5B6) = B1B5 or B1B6 or B3B5 or B3B6 or B4B5 or B4B6 or b2B5 or b2B6 - 2 out of 8.

Though if Robert was one of the other 6, or Steffon was B1B3 or B1B4, then there's no way for their children to be blond, or even carriers of Bb-alleles, they can be only BB.

4 hours ago, Damon_Tor said:

Varys isn't reliable. He's been plotting a coup. He's broken innumerable laws in order to create chaos, including murder. We have zero reason to trust him. What we're left with is three or four confirmed bastards by him, yes, each with dark hair. But then 3 or 4 children with dark hair and 3 children with blonde hair are exactly what you'd expect from someone with a recessive blonde gene.

For the record, I do believe Cercei's children are Jaime's, but to presume that Ned or Stannis had irrefutable proof of it is simply incorrect.

Maybe that alone wasn't a solid proof, only a basis for starting suspicions. Though Cersei's behaviour confirmed, that those suspicions were correct.

[Jon Fossoway]

The perks of not having a POV.

[hodorisfaclessman]

Jon arryn has every reason to keep the alliance he set up alive and not assist stannis yet he did. Both are honourable men yet they persued this despite the danger

Plus being around jamie and cersei might have given a hint something isnt right between them

 

Plus robert may have described to jon and stannis his 'sex life ' with cersei ie he stumbled to bed blind drunk (they may have even witnesses these times and been suprised he was able to do anything) and can remeber something sexual occuring (cersei using her hands as she recalls) but cant say for sure if they had sex or not

[Nevets]

Even in the absence of conclusive proof, Stannis has ample reason to believe that Cersei's children are not Robert's.  He knows that marriages between Baratheons and Lannisters always produce black-haired offspring.  He is aware of at least 4 of Robert's bastards (Gendry, Mya Stone, Edric Storm, and Barra), all of whom are black-haired.  And all of Cersei's children are blonde.  He may also have had information we don't know about.   A lot of evidence, but obviously not proof.  

In a place like Westeros, proof in a situation like this one is probably not going to be available, absent an admission b someone.  No DNA test is available.  I will say that, proof or not, I am quite sure that Stannis himself believed that the cchildren weren't Robert's.  He also knew that Robert would never take an accusation from him seriously.

[Here's Looking At You, Kid]

7 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Alas, Stannis lost at the Blackwater and from that point I don't think anyone cared who fathered Joffrey. He sat the Throne and had the allies to keep him there and that's all that matters in the end.

Yup.  Even if they cared, they didn't care enough to send their men off to war over it.  

[Arthur Peres]

Stannis was reasonable to think that they Joffrey and cia were bastards.

They don't look like Robert, Robert's other sons and daughter all seem to look like him, Cersei and Jaime spend much time togheter when Robert is away, Stannis asks for Jon arryn to investigate and the man drops dead, than the most honorable lord in the kingdom and the kings best friend is accused of treason,arrested and beheaded. All of this would make me doubt of Joffrey parentage too.

What I find very weird is how long he waits to take action after Eddard is beheaded and how he treats Renly and Catelyn at the parley.

Robert gave Storm's End to Renly, it's not like Renly usurped it from him, but Stannis keeps calling it his birth right a talks like Renly stealed it from him. He tells that Storms End does not belong to Renly for him to give, but it kind does. He also call the position of Hand of the King his birth right and he is cleary bitter about the friendship between Robert and Ned even so he left the city and he still has his old position, he go out of his way to treat Catelyn at the same time he is talking about justice.

Stannis is cleary ambitious. He knew about the incest but did not told Robert, he wanted the crow and he was cleary afraid and bitter of Renly passing him in the sucession line. For me this became more obvius when he talks about the Dance of the dragons, rhaenyra by law should be skiped in the sucession line by Aegon II, but Viserys made her his heir by testament, still Stannis call her a traitor.

[Bernie Mac]

On 5/26/2018 at 1:57 AM, Megorova said:

It is a proof. 

It is not proof though. We know people with Baratheon blood who did not have black hair. Rhaenys Targaryen, the daughter of Jocelyn Baratheon, had the classical Targaryen features rather than Baratheon. The dark hair does not always pass down. 

In fact after 300 years of being the dominant house in the Stormlands the vast majority of the nobility should have black hair due to this 'dominant' gene, but we don't see that. In fact most of the other Stormland nobles we see don't have black hair, Brienne (who we know her family has intermarried with both the Durrandons and Baratheons) has blonde, the Conningtons, Penroses and Durrandons red and the Estermonts brown. 

On 5/26/2018 at 2:24 AM, Texas Hold Em said:

 

It's a clue, it's not proof.

Bingo? It, as detectives would say, a lead.  It is the whole reason why Jon Arryn was still investigating and even on his death bed did not splurt out an accusation but gave a subtle clue for others to follow. 

20 hours ago, Nevets said:

  He is aware of at least 4 of Robert's bastards (Gendry, Mya Stone, Edric Storm, and Barra),

How does he know about Barra? Was he even in Kings Landing when she was born? 

 

 

[Megorova]

39 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

It is not proof though. We know people with Baratheon blood who did not have black hair. Rhaenys Targaryen, the daughter of Jocelyn Baratheon, had the classical Targaryen features rather than Baratheon. The dark hair does not always pass down. 

Jocelyn's mother was Alyssa Velaryon.

Blonde Velaryon mother was carrier of bb-alleles (blond blond), and Baratheon father was dark-haired carrier of BB-alleles (Brown Brown). Black hair is also brown, only with lots of coloring pigment.

Alyssa (b1b2) + Robar (B3B4) = Jocelyn (b1B3 or b1B4 or b2B3 or b2B4)

Carrier of Bb-alleles, is dark-haired, but can have blond children.

Jocelyn (b1B3 or b1B4 or b2B3 or b2B4) + Aemon Targaryen (b5b6) = Rhaenys (b1b5 or b1b6 or B3b5 or B3b6 or B4b5 or B4b6 or b2b5 or b2b6) - for Rhaenys there was 50/50 possibility to be blonde or dark-haired.

Dark hair always pass down, if the child got B-allele from at least one of its parents.

[Bernie Mac]

3 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Jocelyn's mother was Alyssa Velaryon.

And Joffrey, Myrcella's and Tommen's mother is Cersei Lannister, the daughter of Tywin and Johanna Lannister, both of whom had blonde hair. 

3 minutes ago, Megorova said:

 

Dark hair always pass down, if the child got B-allele from at least one of its parents.

Again, is this was the case in Westeros we'd see the majority of the Stormland nobility with black hair given that the Baratheons would have been having the most prestigious marriages in that region for the last three centuries. 

 

Having black hair is a lead, a clue to the truth but it is not evidence on its own. That is why Arryn continued investigating, why Stannis did not reveal his conclusion to Robert. 

[Dorian Martell's son]

On 5/25/2018 at 4:44 PM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Like he has literally no evidence for any of his suspicions, it seems as though he's assumed Cersi's children aren't Robert's because ultimately he does not them to be; he never himself has a conversation with Cersi where she disclosed her illicit affairs, or read a letter from Ned declaring Stannis as the new king. 

He spoke to Jon Arryn, he probably read the book, he sees the blonde hair and that is it. Stannis is a Baratheon after all, and probably has noticed that the black hair is a family trait, which Bob's "kids" do not have. 

 

On 5/25/2018 at 4:44 PM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I don't know it seems rather befuddling for a man who touts justice being so great and the law being law would pursue an endeavor not truly having a good foundation for why he shouldn't think it's treason. 

It seems slightly hypocrital no?

Why is it hypocritical for the rightful heir to the king to claim the throne?

[Bernie Mac]

6 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Why is it hypocritical for the rightful heir to the king to claim the throne?

If he did not feel the 'evidence' was good enough to convince Robert or the realm while Robert still lived it feels a little hypocritical for him to use that same 'evidence' as justification for trying to usurp the throne.