So Stannis has literally no good reason for thinking himself king right?

[Dorian Martell's son]

13 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

If he did not feel the 'evidence' was good enough to convince Robert or the realm while Robert still lived it feels a little hypocritical for him to use that same 'evidence' as justification for trying to usurp the throne.

Bob was a drunk who had his adopted father run the kingdom, allowed corruption to flourish in the city watch, drank himself into a stupor every night and fathered countless bastards on whores across the kingdom. Stannis was correct in his judgement of his brother 

[Bernie Mac]

1 minute ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Bob was a drunk who had his adopted father run the kingdom,

Every single King has had a Hand, i'm not really sure what your point is. Arryn was probably one of the most competent choices for Robert to pick as his Hand. How is this a negative? 

1 minute ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

 

allowed corruption to flourish in the city watch,

Flourish seems an exaggeration. Was it any less corrupt before Robert was King? 

1 minute ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

 

drank himself into a stupor every night and fathered countless bastards on whores across the kingdom.

OMG! such scandal. A king who drank and liked to have sex. Where does GRRM come up with these outlandish, far fetched ideas. 

1 minute ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

 

Stannis was correct in his judgement of his brother 

What has that got anything to do with what I said?

The 'evidence' that Stannis is using to claim the throne was not good enough to tell Robert or the realm while Robert still lived. He kept it quiet knowing that it was not good enough on its own to prove anything. 

Now that Robert is dead and half the Kingdom rebelling he has seen his chance to steal the crown. Whether he genuinely believes it or not, there is something a little incredible in only revealing the truth after Robert is dead and there is a genuine chance he can win the crown. 

I'm fairly certain had the Reach, Riverlands and North not rebelled Stannis would have remained silent. There is a certain amount of opportunism in his actions. 

[Dorian Martell's son]

Just now, Bernie Mac said:

Every single King has had a Hand, i'm not really sure what your point is. Arryn was probably one of the most competent choices for Robert to pick as his Hand. How is this a negative? 

Ever king has a hand, but not every king practically abdicates in favor of his hand. 

1 minute ago, Bernie Mac said:

Flourish seems an exaggeration. Was it any less corrupt before Robert was King? 

Since Bob did nothing to remedy the situation by say, sacking Slynt, it is not an exaggeration. and what it was like before is irrelevant 

3 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

OMG! such scandal. A king who drank and liked to have sex. Where does GRRM come up with these outlandish, far fetched ideas. 

From historical kings that would rather drink and whore instead of ruling their kingdom. 

4 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

The 'evidence' that Stannis is using to claim the throne was not good enough to tell Robert or the realm while Robert still lived. He kept it quiet knowing that it was not good enough on its own to prove anything. 

 No, he did not want open conflict with the king's father in law because the king was weak in his advanced state of drunkenness. Just look at what happened to the the riverlands.

5 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

 Now that Robert is dead and half the Kingdom rebelling he has seen his chance to steal the crown. Whether he genuinely believes it or not, there is something a little incredible in only revealing the truth after Robert is dead and there is a genuine chance he can win the crown. 

 you are ignoring the lessons of ned stark playing the game of thrones. This isn't a court of law. Guilt or innocence are determined by crossing of swords. Stannis had to get ready to lay his claim. Read the books again. 

7 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

I'm fairly certain had the Reach, Riverlands and North not rebelled Stannis would have remained silent. There is a certain amount of opportunism in his actions. 

Of course there is. it is the game of thrones after all 

[Megorova]

2 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Again, is this was the case in Westeros we'd see the majority of the Stormland nobility with black hair given that the Baratheons would have been having the most prestigious marriages in that region for the last three centuries.

Among population of Stormlands 10% are blond, 30% are red-haired, and 60% are dark-haired (brown or black, that's the same coloring pigment, same allele). So more than half of those lands were overtaken by Baratheon genes.

11 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

19 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Jocelyn's mother was Alyssa Velaryon.

And Joffrey, Myrcella's and Tommen's mother is Cersei Lannister, the daughter of Tywin and Johanna Lannister, both of whom had blonde hair. 

Rhaenys had 1 blond father, 2 blonde paternal grandmother, 3 blond paternal grandfather, 4 blonde maternal grandmother, 1 dark-haired maternal grandfather, and genetically half-blonde half-dark mother.

That's 1,5 dark VS 4,5 blond.

While three Lannisters had - 1 blonde mother (Cersei), 2 blonde maternal grandmother (Johanna), 3 blond maternal grandfather (Tywin), 1 dark-haired (fake)father (Robert), 2 dark-haired paternal grandfather (Steffon), 3 dark-haired paternal grandmother (Cassana Estermont, Estermonts are brown-haired).

3 blond VS 3 dark-haired ancestors.

Thus there was 50/50 possibility for Cersei children from Robert to be either blond or dark-haired. And all three were blond. Which is suspicious, because with 50/50 chances, at least one out of three of their kids, should have been dark-haired, but wasn't.     

This fact alone is enough to begin suspecting their parentage. And with addition of other blonde mothers, that gave birth to dark-haired children from Robert, this added even more credibility to those suspicions.

After that maybe Stannis questioned Cersei's handmaids, sent people to spy after Jaime's activity, and could be, that he did thru those means found out, that those two do have an affair.

 

Though I think, that maybe Stannis wasn't going to reveal, what he has found out to Robert. Because there was no personal benefit for him. What would have happened, if Robert heard about it, and confronted Cersei? Obviously, that he could have beaten confession out of her. And then he would have either executed her, or sent her into exile, together with her children. Then he would have married again, and oldest son of that new wife would have became next King of 7K. 

But for him there was another possibility, more benefitual. He left everything as it was. He knew, that there was other people, that also knew - Jon Arryn, Varys, Littlefinger, maybe more. After Jon Arryn's death, Stannis had reasons to suspect, that Cersei knew, that her secret is in danger of being revealed. So he suspected, that Ned Stark will follow trail of bread crumbs, left by Jon Arryn, and will arrive to the same conclusion, that Cersei's children are not Robert's. So Cersei will deal with Ned, and then she will be forced to kill Robert, prior he will find out everything and will kill her. Then, after Robert's death, Stannis was planning to reveal to everyone, that Cersei children are bastards. Which means, that Robert had no legitimate heirs besides Stannis and Renly. Thus Stannis would have became new King of 7K.

He was aware, that if he won't reveal to Robert, what he found out, then Robert will die. And Stannis was Ok with it. Robert shouldn't have given Stormlands to Renly. He shouldn't have married Stannis with ugly Selyse. And he shouldn't have fucked around with all those whores, while he had a beautiful wife like Cersei. Cersei wasn't good enough for Robert, while Stannis had to live with Selyse? Thus Robert didn't deserved Stannis' loyalty, nor his love or respect. 

[Bernie Mac]

28 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Ever king has a hand, but not every king practically abdicates in favor of his hand. 

Except he had not, not nearly close. Your own example of him refusing Arryn's suggestion that Slynt should be replaced proves this. As was his very hands on approach to the Greyjoy Rebellion or his constant touring of the land, an enjoyable but actual important function of a medieval king. 

He left the majority of the governing to the Hand, but that is exactly the roll of the Hand. The likes of Tywin, Bloodraven, Viserys and Otto Hightower were no less involved than Arryn.

 

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Since Bob did nothing to remedy the situation by say, sacking Slynt, it is not an exaggeration. and what it was like before is irrelevant 

Sure it is, unless you don't quite understand the meaning of the word you used. 

Robert's argument that there was always going to be corruption, that the next person could be worse and that they at least knew what motivated Slynt. 

Should also be pointed out that it was Jon Arryn who made Slynt the Commander of Gold Cloaks in the first place. 

Quote

From historical kings that would rather drink and whore instead of ruling their kingdom. 

Yup. A king drinking and whoring is not unusual in either real life or Westeros. Why would this have any bearing on Stannis refusing to warn his brother that not only was he being cuckolded but his life was potentially in danger. 

He is not certain the information he has is good enough to make him heir when Robert is still alive but only once Robert has kicked the bucket and the realm rebelled does he decide that it is now 100% accurate and he is the rightful king. 

Quote

 No, he did not want open conflict with the king's father in law because the king was weak in his advanced state of drunkenness. Just look at what happened to the the riverlands.

Of course. Stannis was silent for nine months between Arryn's death and Tywin entering the Riverlands. 

He didn't tell out of fear for the conflict in the realm, that is why he readily joined the War of the Five Kings, had his brother assassinated, was about to kill his bastard nephew and killed his Florent in-law for wanting peace. 

Stannis has shown zero proof that he has his families best interests at heart, they are all collateral damage in his desire to be King. He is so righteous in this belief that his own daughter may be sacrificed in this goal.  Nor does he care about peace in the realm, not if he is not King. Littlefinger is not the only character who would be willing to see Westeros burn if he could be king of the ashes. 

 

Quote

 you are ignoring the lessons of ned stark playing the game of thrones. This isn't a court of law. Guilt or innocence are determined by crossing of swords. Stannis had to get ready to lay his claim. Read the books again. 

Stannis could have told his brother and the realm his suspicions. He did not. What he had was not good enough to convince Robert but he is using this same evidence to make him king, it seems hypocritical. You asked someone else why Stannis' actions are seen as some as being hypocritical and I have answered. Not sure what more you want from me. 

I mean I can't really be angry with you, at least you are contributing to this discussion rather than telling people they are not allowed to discuss the topic. I see some actual growth here. 

 

1 minute ago, Megorova said:

Among population of Stormlands 10% are blond, 30% are red-haired, and 60% are dark-haired (brown or black, that's the same coloring pigment, same allele). So more than half of those lands were overtaken by Baratheon genes.

lol this is a little too meta for this discussion. You have just made up evidence or gotten this information from someone other than the author of the series. 

Like Stannis' information on the children of Cersei being bastards, this guess might be 100% accurate but you have no actual evidence for it. 

1 minute ago, Megorova said:

Rhaenys had 1 blond father, 2 blonde paternal grandmother, 3 blond paternal grandfather, 4 blonde maternal grandmother, 1 dark-haired maternal grandfather, and genetically half-blonde half-dark mother.

That's 1,5 dark VS 4,5 blond.

While three Lannisters had - 1 blonde mother (Cersei), 2 blonde maternal grandmother (Johanna), 3 blond maternal grandfather (Tywin), 1 dark-haired (fake)father (Robert), 2 dark-haired paternal grandfather (Steffon), 3 dark-haired paternal grandmother (Cassana Estermont, Estermonts are brown-haired).

We actually don't know what colour Cassana was, we have no idea who her mother. Nor who her great grandparents were. 

And if you go back a generation there was Tytos, Jason and Rhaelle all known blonde vs the only known dark haired character Ormund. 

1 minute ago, Megorova said:

3 blond VS 3 dark-haired ancestors.

Not that we know of. 

And by all means go to the generation before that, the generation of Ty

1 minute ago, Megorova said:

Thus there was 50/50 possibility for Cersei children from Robert to be either blond or dark-haired. And all three were blond. Which is suspicious, because with 50/50 chances, at least one out of three of their kids, should have been dark-haired, but wasn't.

Which you must realize is still not proof, right? Three blonde children who look exactly like their mother is not evidence that a wife has been cheating on a husband. If they all looked little like either father or mother then that would be cause for concern, but still not actual proof. 

 

17 minutes ago, Megorova said:

  

This fact alone is enough to begin suspecting their parentage.

Which fact? Should Ned have been suspicious of Edmure being the father of Robb, Bran and Sansa? His three oldest children all favor Cat's side of the family, is that evidence for the culling to begin? 

No, of course not. Children looking like one parent over another is not unusual. Robert and Ned would have been considered crazy to have used that as evidence against their three oldest children.

17 minutes ago, Megorova said:

And with addition of other blonde mothers, that gave birth to dark-haired children from Robert, this added even more credibility to those suspicions.

Bingo, suspicion is an accurate word. Evidence and Proof are not. 

17 minutes ago, Megorova said:

After that maybe Stannis questioned Cersei's handmaids, sent people to spy after Jaime's activity, and could be, that he did thru those means found out, that those two do have an affair.

Why has he not mentioned any of this shit up? You are inventing things that did not happen, in order to justify your reasoning. 

17 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Though I think, that maybe Stannis wasn't going to reveal, what he has found out to Robert. Because there was no personal benefit for him.

It is his duty to reveal to the King that he believed that his children were not his own and that the Hand of the King had been murdered as a result of this. 

I can guarantee that had Davos been in the same position he would have wanted Stannis, duty is not about thinking about what the reward is. 

 

 

[Megorova]

49 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

The 'evidence' that Stannis is using to claim the throne was not good enough to tell Robert or the realm while Robert still lived. He kept it quiet knowing that it was not good enough on its own to prove anything. 

You're so innocent There could be other reasons, why Stannis didn't tell anything to Robert. And those reasons had nothing to do with level of credibility of those evidences.

55 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

I'm fairly certain had the Reach, Riverlands and North not rebelled Stannis would have remained silent. There is a certain amount of opportunism in his actions. 

There's lots of that in his actions. But seems, that you're missing the fact, that Stannis himself created that opportunity - to become King of 7K.

Also The Reach rebelled only after Stannis started to act. So Stannis was going to claim Iron Throne, even if there was no rebellion from other Kingdoms. If there was no war between Westerlands VS North+Riverlands, then Stannis would have just acted differently. Maybe he would have gathered Great Councill, or just gave more time to convincing Lords of 7K about illegitimacy of Cersei's children. If Starks didn't rebelled, then there would have been no need for Stannis to rush things. 

[Dorian Martell's son]

4 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Except he had not, not nearly close. Your own example of him refusing Arryn's suggestion that Slynt should be replaced proves this. As was his very hands on approach to the Greyjoy Rebellion or his constant touring of the land, an enjoyable but actual important function of a medieval king. 

He fought the greyjoys because he loves to fight. That is it. His refusal to sack Slynt was not hands on ruling. it was laziness. And when he toured the land, he drank and whored. I guess whoring can be a form of diplomacy

22 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

He left the majority of the governing to the Hand, but that is exactly the roll of the Hand. The likes of Tywin, Bloodraven, Viserys and Otto Hightower were no less involved than Arryn.

Tywin let his hand rule, got butthurt about it and cut Payne's tongue out  when he spoke the truth. Then he was killed by his own protector after losing a war that he sent his hands to fight for him. not a good example. 

 

29 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Sure it is, unless you don't quite understand the meaning of the word you used. 

Robert's argument that there was always going to be corruption, that the next person could be worse and that they at least knew what motivated Slynt. 

you literally just pointed out how bob let corruption flourish by showing his extremely lazy argument. 

30 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Should also be pointed out that it was Jon Arryn who made Slynt the Commander of Gold Cloaks in the first place. 

This, like the "relative" corruption of the past, is irrelevant. 

31 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

 Yup. A king drinking and whoring is not unusual in either real life or Westeros. Why would this have any bearing on Stannis refusing to warn his brother that not only was he being cuckolded but his life was potentially in danger. 

His brother was too concerned with his vices to effectively pay attention. Try showing up to work pissed drunk every day and see how well you do your job.

33 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

He is not certain the information he has is good enough to make him heir when Robert is still alive but only once Robert has kicked the bucket and the realm rebelled does he decide that it is now 100% accurate and he is the rightful king. 

He did not think sloppy drunk Bob would accept what he was told. That is different than deciding it is accurate after his brother dies. 

34 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Of course. Stannis was silent for nine months between Arryn's death and Tywin entering the Riverlands. 

 He was. He understands the game of thrones far better than Ned. Notice that Stannis still has his head. 

36 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

He didn't tell out of fear for the conflict in the realm, that is why he readily joined the War of the Five Kings, had his brother assassinated, was about to kill his bastard nephew and killed his Florent in-law for wanting peace. 

I said nothing about conflict with the "realm."   I said he did not want conflict with his brother's in laws. Think about what I write before you reply. 

39 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Stannis has shown zero proof that he has his families best interests at heart, they are all collateral damage in his desire to be King. He is so righteous in this belief that his own daughter may be sacrificed in this goal.  Nor does he care about peace in the realm, not if he is not King. Littlefinger is not the only character who would be willing to see Westeros burn if he could be king of the ashes.

 Again, I am not sure where you are getting "the realm" or "his family's" best interests at heart. The point of this thread was his belief that he was the rightful heir to bob, which, as readers, we know it is 100% true, so really, the discussion should have ended there, but here I am correcting your assumptions about what I have written directly to you in a reply. 

43 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Stannis could have told his brother and the realm his suspicions. He did not.

He is pragmatic. He understands the Game. 

44 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

 What he had was not good enough to convince Robert but he is using this same evidence to make him king, it seems hypocritical.

If you had thought about my replies, you could have seen why it was not hypocritical. It may seem that way from a modern legal perspective, but it is not. 

47 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

You asked someone else why Stannis' actions are seen as some as being hypocritical and I have answered. Not sure what more you want from me. 

I thought we were having a discussion about a characters motivations in a book we love on an online forum. If you do not like this discussion you do not have to reply. 

49 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

I mean I can't really be angry with you, at least you are contributing to this discussion rather than telling people they are not allowed to discuss the topic. I see some actual growth here. 

you mean having an actual discussion about literary characters, motivations and outcomes that are written in the novels as opposed to how nerds would rewrite someone else's story as they saw fit? You idea of growth is interesting. 

[Clegane'sPup]

There are three main tricksters in the books    LF, Varys and Pycelle. They whisper, plot and plan. To me book one was setting up Stark vs Lannister which leads to a lot of shite hitting the fan in the next two books. Stannis does not have a voice until the prologue of book two. Even then, Stannis only speaks in others POV’s.

Cat speaks with Stannis in book two. Stannis says he took his suspicions to Jon Arryn. That is a tie in to book one and the death of JA.

A Clash of Kings - Catelyn III       Robert could never have known, Catelyn thought, or Cersei would have lost her head in an instant. "Lord Stannis," she asked, "if you knew the queen to be guilty of such monstrous crimes, why did you keep silent?"      "I did not keep silent," Stannis declared. "I brought my suspicions to Jon Arryn."/

In that same CoK Cat chapter Stannis tells Cat why he did not take his suspicions to King Bob.

A Clash of Kings - Catelyn III      "Rather than your own brother?"   "My brother's regard for me was never more than dutiful," said Stannis. "From me, such accusations would have seemed peevish and self-serving, a means of placing myself first in the line of succession. I believed Robert would be more disposed to listen if the charges came from Lord Arryn, whom he loved."/

In the above quote Stannis said he took his suspicions to JA. Stannis also gave his reason why he did not tell King Bob.

Book one quote below gives an introduction into the wheeling and dealings of LF and Varys as Eddard goes about the business of trying to find the details about JA’s death.

A Game of Thrones - Eddard IV       "I told Petyr our suspicions about Jon Arryn's death," Catelyn said. "He has promised to help you find the truth."      That was not news that Eddard Stark welcomed, but it was true enough that they needed help, and Littlefinger had been almost a brother to Cat once. It would not be the first time that Ned had been forced to make common cause with a man he despised. "Very well," he said, thrusting the dagger into his belt. "You spoke of Varys. Does the eunuch know all of it?"/

Enter the third tricky bird, Pycelle, the keeper of the ravens. Pycelle, the sender and receiver of ravenmail; and a lackey of House Lannister.  Tyrion pulled a little scam and it was revealed that Pycelle reads the mail, which implies to me that Pycelle read Eddard’s mail.

A Game of Thrones - Eddard VIII      Pycelle had sent a raven off across the water, with a polite letter from Ned requesting Lord Stannis to return to his seat on the small council. As yet, there had been no reply, but the silence only deepened his suspicions. Lord Stannis shared the secret Jon Arryn had died for, he was certain of it. The truth he sought might very well be waiting for him on the ancient island fortress of House Targaryen.

Below Tyrion and Varys have a chit chat.   Tyrion wonders how Stannis became suspicious of the Lannister intermingling of body fluids.

A Clash of Kings - Tyrion III     "He [Stannis] accuses my brother and sister of incest. I wonder how he came by that suspicion." "Perhaps he read a book and looked at the color of a bastard's hair, as Ned Stark did, and Jon Arryn before him. Or perhaps someone whispered it in his ear." The eunuch's laugh was not his usual giggle, but deeper and more throaty./

[Megorova]

13 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

You have just made up evidence or gotten this information from someone other than the author of the series. 

There was several threads here about genetics and stuff like that. So I went thru descriptions of all characters from different regions, specifically Stormlands, The North and Beyond The Wall. Not for all characters were given colors of their hair and eyes. Though among those, that were described with coloring, in all three of those regions, percentage was the same - 10% blond, 30% red, 60% dark (mostly brown, and more rarely black).

I'm not making it up, and this info is from the author, because it was given directly in the books.

24 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Like Stannis' information on the children of Cersei being bastards, this guess might be 100% accurate but you have no actual evidence for it. 

There could have been more evidences. We may not know about them, which doesn't mean, that Stannis didn't knew more.

For example, based on what Jaime or Cersei said, Cersei was using contraception. First time, when she became pregnant from Robert, Jaime went with her to make an abortion. But I doubt, that he was dealing all the time, with that sort of things. More likely, is that Cersei was using her handmaids, they were supplying her with moon tea, or other preventive "medicine". Stannis could have questioned them, set spies to watch over Cersei and Jaime.   

34 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

And if you go back a generation there was Tytos, Jason and Rhaelle all known blonde vs the only known dark haired character Ormund. 

Rhaelle may not have been blonde.

Aegon V (light hair) + Betha Blackwood (dark hair) = Duncan (dark), Jaehaerys (light), Daeron (light), Shaera (unknown), Rhaelle (unknown).

Obviously that Betha was Bb, otherwise she wouldn't have had blond children.

Aegon (b1b2) + Betha (B3b4) = b1B3 (Duncan), b1b4 (Jaehaerys), b2B3 (Shaera or Rhaelle, or both), b2b4 (Daeron, or Shaera and Rhaelle too).

Jaehaerys (light) + Shaera (unknown) = Aerys (light), Rhaella (light).

Based on Aerys and Rhaella, most likely Shaera had light hair, or at least was carrier of Bb-alleles, and thus was dark-haired herself, but to her children passed her blond allele.

What's the possibility that blond father and dark-haired mother, that had five children, had only one dark-haired child, while the other four were blond? That seems unlikely.

Rhaelle is not known blonde. In the World book, there was only picture of Egg with his three sons. Looks of his daughters are unknown.

56 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

We actually don't know what colour Cassana was, we have no idea who her mother. Nor who her great grandparents were. 

Though GRRM is mostly using patterned coloring. What I mean is that Dondarrions, Conningtons, Tullys have red hair, Targaryens were mostly light-colored, Baratheons and Martells had dark hair.

About Estermonts' coloring we know only that one of them has brown hair. But with addition that in Stormlands 60% of population also have brown hair, seems more than likely, that Cassana also had brown hair.

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Which you must realize is still not proof, right?

It is proof. Not 100% proof of Cersei's infidelity, rather a proof of possibility, that Cersei's children could be not Robert's.

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Which fact? Should Ned have been suspicious of Edmure being the father of Robb, Bran and Sansa? His three oldest children all favor Cat's side of the family, is that evidence for the culling to begin? 

Only three out of Cat's children doesn't look like their father, while other two have Ned's looks. Compare that with Cersei - all of her children doesn't look like Robert. While Robert's 16 bastards do look like him.

Stannis' or anyone else's suspicions didn't started just because Cersei's children looked like her. There was something else, some additional knowledge, that triggered beginning of all those investigations. My guess, is that Littlefinger commented about recently born Barra, and how she looks like her father, same as Mya Stone back in The Vale, and Edric Storm at Dragonstone, and that Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella has zero Baratheon features.

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

It is his duty to reveal to the King that he believed that his children were not his own and that the Hand of the King had been murdered as a result of this. 

I can guarantee that had Davos been in the same position he would have wanted Stannis, duty is not about thinking about what the reward is. 

First Robert was Stannis' brother, and only years later additionally also became his King, by usurping power in 7K. And what strengthened his claim was his 25% Targaryen blood, same as Stannis' blood. Add to this, that Aerys was Robert's King, which didn't stopped Robert from taking his crown, and killing his family. It wasn't him, who have killed Elia and her children, but he did killed Rhaegar, and sent Stannis to Dragonstone, to kill Prince Viserys, Queen Rhaella and her baby. Robert went against his duty towards his King, and instead pursued personal benefit. His King demanded his head, but Robert didn't bend over, to let it be cut off Why should Stannis do something, that Robert havent? I mean, why should he risk his life? Because if Cersei would have found out, that Stannis is going to share his findings with Robert, then she would have killed him.

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Quote

And with addition of other blonde mothers, that gave birth to dark-haired children from Robert, this added even more credibility to those suspicions.

Bingo, suspicion is an accurate word. Evidence and Proof are not.

In addition to what I wrote on this matter above, looks of Cersei's children are proof, that they are untypical for Baratheons. Other children from unions between Baratheons and other 7K's Houses, looked like Baratheons. Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella don't fit into that rule. So this is proof, not of definite fact, but of possibility, that Robert is not their father. You may not like it, but it still is a proof, only of slightly different thing.

[Bernie Mac]

 

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There could be other reasons, why Stannis didn't tell anything to Robert. And those reasons had nothing to do with level of credibility of those evidences.

He has only every mentioned one reason, that he did not think his brother would believe him, he wanted someone else to risk the possible fallout/mockery from such claims.

Arryn himself did not think there was actual evidence to prove it either, so he further investigated. Even as he lay dying he refused to make the claim, leaving only clues to the possible crime. 

We can only base Stannis' motives for not telling based on what he himself has said, he chickened out even after he convinced himself that the Lannisters killed Arryn. He refused to do his duty and warn his brother, the King, which on its own is perhaps fair enough but if soon after his brother's death he is claiming the Throne based on the exact same information it become a little hypocritical. 

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There's lots of that in his actions. But seems, that you're missing the fact, that Stannis himself created that opportunity - to become King of 7K.

eh? Robert dying, Renly rebelling and Myrcella being able to produce magical shadow babies created that opportunity. 

Unless you are claiming that Stannis sat back in silence in the hope that the Lannisters would quickly murder his brother so he could become King? 

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Also The Reach rebelled only after Stannis started to act.

Not that we know of. The first time we hear of Stannis gathering troops is the same time we hear of Renly crowning himself.  King Renly had already left Hightower and was staying at Horn Hill when news of Stannis came to the Reach. 

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So Stannis was going to claim Iron Throne, even if there was no rebellion from other Kingdoms.

No, he was not. He needed Renly's army to do it. Without those men rebelling Stannis would be screwed as his 5k sellswords would be easily beaten. He is righteous, but he is not an idiot. 

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If there was no war between Westerlands VS North+Riverlands, then Stannis would have just acted differently.

Yes, he would have remained sulking at Dragonstone

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Maybe he would have gathered Great Councill, or just gave more time to convincing Lords of 7K about illegitimacy of Cersei's children. If Starks didn't rebelled, then there would have been no need for Stannis to rush things. 

What was he going to do, wait for Joffrey's 50th before making a claim? 

Of course he would have needed to rush, the beginning and ending of reigns is when monarchs are most vulnerable. 

4 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

He fought the greyjoys because he loves to fight. That is it.

Winning a civil war is an important part of ruling. You can't claim he did nothing and then simply ignore him protecting the realm. 

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His refusal to sack Slynt was not hands on ruling. it was laziness.

No, laziness would be letting Arryn do as he pleased. He made a choice and he stuck to it. He could have also asked his small council to come up with the next Hand, but he himself made the choice. 

He was more active than you are giving him credit for. It does your argument no good to simply hand wave away arguments that contradict you. Robert was by no means a good king, but he had not abdicated his throne. The realm was mostly peaceful and prosperous during his reign and the one time it was not he actively made sure to rectify that. King's actively bringing peace to the realm is as hands on as you are going to get from a monarch. 

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And when he toured the land, he drank and whored. I guess whoring can be a form of diplomacy

OMG, scandal. A king who drank and whored. Dude, come on! You are going to have to do better than that. Drinking and having sex does not mean he abdicated his throne or he was a bad king. Plenty of monarchs have done both and some have been men who were far more hands on than other monarchs. 

Don't let Stannis' or your own puritanical views on sex and alcohol cloud your judgement on the role of monarchy. They are pretty much immaterial to a ruler's performance. 

 

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Tywin let his hand rule, got butthurt about it and cut Payne's tongue out  when he spoke the truth. Then he was killed by his own protector after losing a war that he sent his hands to fight for him. not a good example. 

Sure it is. Tywin, Viserys, Hightower and Bloodraven are four of the longest serving Hands in the history of Westeros.  Along with Arryn that makes around at least a third of the Westeros era being ruled by Kings who allowed their Hands to do the majority of the governing. 

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you literally just pointed out how bob let corruption flourish by showing his extremely lazy argument. 

Flourish implies that something has grown, to rise that was not there before. Corruption was always there. 

Robert's entire argument was not that he wanted to maintain corruption, but that the next guy could be even worse and at least they knew Slynt's vices. 

As I said before, flourish is entirely the wrong word. Robert was not encouraging corruption to grow, he thought it better to stick with the man Lord Arryn picked for the position rather than hire an inferior man who was likely to end up just as corrupt. 

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This, like the "relative" corruption of the past, is irrelevant. 

It is not. I have not claimed that Robert was a visionary, he was happy with the status quo, him maintaining the status quo is not making something flourish. 

 

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His brother was too concerned with his vices to effectively pay attention.

Clearly not true. The appointment of Slynt, his active roll in the Greyjoy Rebellion show this to be false and his selection of the next Hand, going personally to seal the deal show this. 

The realm was fine under Robert's rule. It might not have been the best but it was far from the worst period of Wesrosi history. 

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Try showing up to work pissed drunk every day and see how well you do your job.

Kings don't clock on, it is an institution not a job. 

However, that seems to be a bullshit claim. How many pages of AGOT is Robert actually drunk? Or, as you said before, so drunk he was unable to function? 

How many mornings was Robert shown to be pissed drunk? 

When did we ever see a time when a problem arose and Robert was too drunk to deal with it? 

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He did not think sloppy drunk Bob would accept what he was told. That is different than deciding it is accurate after his brother dies. 

No, that is bullshit. If Robert being drunk was the issue why did he think that Arryn telling him would be more beleiveable? 

In the books there is nothing from Stannis that suggests Robert's drinking was the reason Stannis' doing his duty and telling him the truth. 

This is kind of ironic, someone who actively shits on new posts which veer away from the text is actually making up stuff to suit his agenda. You have became the very thing you seem to spend so much time protesting about on these boards and I think it is beautiful. 

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 He was. He understands the game of thrones far better than Ned. Notice that Stannis still has his head. 

That is hardly high praise, is it? Reading the game slightly better than Ned is something worth commending? 

Stannis, in many regards, was just as naive. 

"Dwarf or leech, this killer served the kingdom well. They must send for me now."

"They will not," said Melisandre. "Joffrey has a brother."

"Tommen." The king said the name grudgingly

It is also shown in the majority of the books, he is under this simpleminded impression that simply winning Kings Landing and sitting on the Throne will make the entire realm serve him. That the likes of the Reach, Westerlands and other lords who don't like him will just accept him as their king because he wears a crown. For all the shit Ned gets, he is at least aware that a crown is not just about a shiny hat but compromise, which he does when he marries Cat and when he gets into bed with both Slynt and Littlefinger. Unfortunately for Ned he got played, but he at least recognized that compromise and alliances with people you don't like is how you maintain a kingdom. Stannis never got that and that is probably why he has such a limited grasp of the game. He is incredibly lucky that he is a walking deus ex machina as his right hand woman. 

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I said nothing about conflict with the "realm."   I said he did not want conflict with his brother's in laws. Think about what I write before you reply. 

why not point out the quote from the books where he claim that? 

and why is he willing to have conflict with his brother's in-laws after Robert is dead? 

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 Again, I am not sure where you are getting "the realm" or "his family's" best interests at heart. The point of this thread was his belief that he was the rightful heir to bob, which, as readers, we know it is 100% true,

Has anyone really argued against this positon? 

Stannis and the characters in the book don't have this book, they, quite literally, are not on the same page as we are. Discussing characters motivations is not a crime. 

Stannis has no real evidence, he has a clue that he can not possibly know if he is right or wrong. We the reader know, he does not. The fact that his 'evidence' was not good enough to tell Robert, even when he was convinced that the Lannisters murdered Arryn. The fact that he is wrong about that yet is convinced they murdered him only shows how little he knew

 but that damnable Lannister woman had Lord Arryn poisoned before it could be done

We know that despite him being convinced he was right, he was wrong on this. He could have been wrong about the incest as well. Really, really wanting to believe something is true because you get to be King is not the same as having evidence or proof. He had a suspicion, nothing more, and it looks a little hypocritical when Robert was alive he sat on these same suspicions but now that he is dead and the realm fragmented he is willing to murder his nephews and niece over it. 

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so really, the discussion should have ended there,

FFS dude, you do so love to tell people in this forum when they can and can't discuss. 

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but here I am correcting your assumptions about what I have written directly to you in a reply. 

What exactly do you think you have corrected? 

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He is pragmatic. He understands the Game. 

He is not pragmatic, occasionally bending does not mean someone is pragmatic. 

And he quite clearly does not understand the game. As a player he is far closer to Ned than he is the likes of Varys and Littlefinger, while Tyrion and Cersei outshine him. Even Renly understood the game better than him. 

Without those magical shadowbabies Stannis would either have never participated in the game or been roadkill on Renly's path to Kings Landing. 

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If you had thought about my replies, you could have seen why it was not hypocritical. It may seem that way from a modern legal perspective, but it is not. 

As a modern person I can only really think from a modern perspective. His actions seem a little hypocritical. But I imagine his silence in an age where honour was regarded highly his silence actually looks far more hypocritical than I see it. 

Robert was both Stannis' King and brother and Stannis suspected he was in danger, not did his duty and then proclaimed himself King and got in a hissy fit over everyone not doing their duty and obeying him. 

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I thought we were having a discussion about a characters motivations in a book we love on an online forum. If you do not like this discussion you do not have to reply. 

Dude, I'm loving this discussion. I prefer you in this mode. It is when I see that there has been activity in a thread I am interested in only to find it is one of your stock replies of trying to shut down debate do I get bummed out. 

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you mean having an actual discussion about literary characters, motivations and outcomes that are written in the novels as opposed to how nerds would rewrite someone else's story as they saw fit? You idea of growth is interesting. 

Yes, I like to see discussion flourish and if that means us nerds get to talk about different hypotheticals then more power to us. 

And really dude, 'nerd', you think that is going to insult any of us discussing a 20 year old book series based on dragons and ice zombies? 

[Bernie Mac]

3 hours ago, Megorova said:

There was several threads here about genetics and stuff like that. So I went thru descriptions of all characters from different regions, specifically Stormlands, The North and Beyond The Wall. Not for all characters were given colors of their hair and eyes. Though among those, that were described with coloring, in all three of those regions, percentage was the same - 10% blond, 30% red, 60% dark (mostly brown, and more rarely black).

You have pulled this information out of thin air, it is not evidence, it is speculation. We don't even know every noble House in the Stormlands, we have spent a handful of chapters in that area and we have not seen anything of their population. 

This is why this is meta to this discussion, you heard a theory you liked and have decided to run with it and class it as fact, much like Stannis has. 

No one on these forums know the percentage of hair color of the people of the Stormlands, I am going out on a limb and I will include Ran on this. I will go so far to say that GRRM himself has never actually thought that much on the subject. So while you may be right, and I am not saying you are not, there is zero evidence to back this claim up. 

 

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I'm not making it up, and this info is from the author, because it was given directly in the books.

You are making it up. There are what, 2-3 million people in the Stormlands. We have the hair colours of less than a hundred of them. There are actually stormland characters we have been introduced to who we don't know what hair colour they have, you are basing a population of millions based on a sample of less than a hundred. It is ludicrous to call that 'proof'. 

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There could have been more evidences. We may not know about them, which doesn't mean, that Stannis didn't knew more.

That is true. I am basing my argument on what we know, what Stannis has shared with the reader and if he decides to tell us more then I will change my position. But until then I stand by everything I have said. 

Stannis did not have any actual evidence, he had a hunch, a suspicion, a clue, a lead but not actual proof. He did not think the 'evidence' alone would be enough to sway Robert, he wanted someone like his father figure Jon to convince him

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For example, based on what Jaime or Cersei said, Cersei was using contraception. First time, when she became pregnant from Robert, Jaime went with her to make an abortion. But I doubt, that he was dealing all the time, with that sort of things. More likely, is that Cersei was using her handmaids, they were supplying her with moon tea, or other preventive "medicine". Stannis could have questioned them, set spies to watch over Cersei and Jaime.   

Nothing in the books suggest this. Again, it is possible but I am only basing my argument on the actual claims Stannis has made. Why has he kept quiet about this? 

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Rhaelle may not have been blonde.

And Ormund may have been a red head. 

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Aegon V (light hair) + Betha Blackwood (dark hair) = Duncan (dark), Jaehaerys (light), Daeron (light), Shaera (unknown), Rhaelle (unknown).

Obviously that Betha was Bb, otherwise she wouldn't have had blond children.

That is not obvious. She could have been fucking around, she could have a ark haired parent.

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Rhaelle is not known blonde. In the World book, there was only picture of Egg with his three sons. Looks of his daughters are unknown.

And Ormond is not known to be dark haired, we presume it. I'm happy to take Rhaelle out of the equation as you are right, no proof. Unfortunately that means Ormond is removed as well. 

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Though GRRM is mostly using patterned coloring. What I mean is that Dondarrions, Conningtons, Tullys have red hair, Targaryens were mostly light-colored, Baratheons and Martells had dark hair.

Stark, the principle family, take more after their mother than their father. There is no rule to how genetics works in the world GRMM has created, at least not as far as we or the people who live in their world, know. 

A child looking like his Lannister or Tully mother is not cause for concerns. 

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About Estermonts' coloring we know only that one of them has brown hair. But with addition that in Stormlands 60% of population also have brown hair, seems more than likely, that Cassana also had brown hair.

there is no evidence that 60%  of the characters in the Stormlands have brown hair. You have made that up. And are using a made up claim to make up other claims. With those kind of skills you are wasted on this forum, you should be working in political journalism (either side). 

To make it easier, I would be beyond amazed if you could name 20 Stormland characters with brown hair using actual quotes from the books. 

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It is proof. Not 100% proof of Cersei's infidelity, rather a proof of possibility, that Cersei's children could be not Robert's.

Then is it not proof. It is a possibility. Stick to using the word possibility or could be and people would not be highlighting you misusing the word 'proof'. 

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Only three out of Cat's children doesn't look like their father, while other two have Ned's looks. Compare that with Cersei - all of her children doesn't look like Robert. While Robert's 16 bastards do look like him.

So you are saying that before Arya was born Ned should have been looking for ways to prove he had been cuckolded? 

Both Robert and Ned's first three children by their wives looked more like their mothers than their father. This is not evidence of infidelity. 50% of their grandparents were Lannister, stands to reason they'd look Lannister. 

Should also be noted that Lann the Clever was golden haired, the Lannisters have remarkably been blonde for far longer than House Baratheon existed and in that time the ruling Kings/Lords of Casterly Rock must have had their fair share of dark haired brides and lo and behold they are still blonde. 

 

[Lord Varys]

On 5/26/2018 at 4:37 PM, The Drunkard said:

No. Stannis begins to suspect the truth and he approaches the only other honourable man at court so they can investigate. They discover that every one of Robert's children they come across shares his look while not one of the royal children do, and he (potentially) learns that every recorded instance of Baratheon-Lannister pairings ends with the Baratheon look dominating. The healthy Jon Arryn suddenly drops dead. Short of a confession (which he cannot expect to get) he can only assume that all of this is coincidence or else that he and Jon were onto the truth. There is no proof available to him.

Stannis also has no proof that Jon Arryn was poisoned. The man was past eighty. It could have been a sudden sickness that took him, not some poison. Robert doesn't suspect anything, either. It was not obvious the man was murdered. And as it happens - he was not murdered because he was investigating Robert's children. Stannis doesn't care about investigating Jon's death properly. He thinks he knows that Cersei did it and that's all the evidence he needs - just as him thinking that Cersei's children are not Robert's is all the proof he needs to assume he is the king.

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The only hypocrisy is that he didn't lay it all down for Robert given he'd probably want his own men to do the same for him, but then neither did anyone who learned the truth. 

We are not discussing everybody else here - but even if we did, not telling Robert the truth point blank makes Stannis as vile and corrupt (at least in that single point) as are Varys, Littlefinger, and Pycelle - assuming all of them actually have *proof* on the matter (Varys might have some overheard conversations between Jaime and Cersei proving it, but Littlefinger and Pycelle might have as much proof as Stannis has - none).

On 5/26/2018 at 5:38 PM, Lucius Lovejoy said:

I can't blame him for getting the hell out of dodge when Jon Arryn died, though he should have gotten in touch with Ned.

Check the time line again. When Jon Arryn died Cersei Lannister and her children weren't even in the city. They were accompanying Lord Tywin back to Casterly Rock after the nameday tourney. That makes it very likely that Jaime, too, was with them. Stannis was in a unique position to approach Robert about his suspicions - both about Jon Arryn being poisoned as well as about the reason why he may have been killed.

The idea that Robert wouldn't have listened to this is actually not very likely - but even if we assume that he wouldn't have: this doesn't change the fact that it would have been Stannis' duty to talk to his king and brother about the matter.

There is no way around that. None at all.

Stannis deliberately kept his suspicions about the twincest a secret until Robert was dead and buried. Once he was safely on Dragonstone he could have written some of those letters he later wrote - why didn't he do that? 

If the queen's children were bastards born of incest and adultery then Stannis should have gone to war to prevent their rise to the Iron Throne - against his own brother if that was necessary. He could have tried to open Robert's eyes to the truth but if the man had then insisted that Cersei's children were his heirs no matter what then he could have declared war on him. With the royal fleet under his control Robert had no way to threaten Stannis on Dragonstone.

On 5/26/2018 at 5:44 PM, TheThreeEyedCow said:

Stannis has a reason, yes. The children do not resemble Robert in any way despite his bastards demonstrating Baratheon traits. And Stannis wasn't alone in this. Jon Arryn, a man whom we needn't cast doubt on also suspected this and did not confront Robert. Instead he left the passing words, "The seed is strong". I don't think he's talking about his own son, there. Furthermore, I believe it was Jon Arryn that arranged the marriage of Cersei to the King and even went as far as to suggest that his own son be fostered by Tywin. So there's little to no enmity between Jon and house Lannister; no reason to suspect political bias or sabotage. 

Jon wanted to foster his son with Stannis on Dragonstone. Fostering Robert at Casterly Rock was Cersei's idea, after Jon's sudden death.

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A lot of readers seem perplexed by the fact Stannis didn't go to Robert. Well, this is a catch-22 or paradoxical problem. Stannis has reason, yes. But proof? No. None. But have you seen the way in which the Westerossi derive proof in the absence of modern science? We've seen Tyrion stand trial (a complete farce), and we've also watched the trial by combat. Readers of the Dunk and Egg novella would also of glimpsed a trial of seven. The Westerossi put their faith in god's not men. So, how is Stannis, a man with a complex history with Robert going to convince him of the incest minus Jon Arryn. Jon Arryn being like a father to Robert would of been the realm's best hope of uncovering Cersei's plot. The only sure fire way would be a confession from Cersei...
Jon died and then so too did Ned who offered mercy. With Stannis' relationship with the King at an all time low (Dany and Vis' escape seemed to of truly marred whatever relationship the brothers had left) he stood no chance of reasoning. By withdrawing to DS, Stannis avoided assassination and gathered his strength for the inevitable situation he was going to find himself in. 

If Stannis was willing to go to war against the entire Realm, basically, with a ridiculously small army and no dragons and the sure knowledge that pretty much nobody in Westeros wants him on the Iron Throne, then it makes no sense to assume this man was afraid of Cersei - a mere woman - or of assassinations in general.

Stannis doesn't act out of caution. He wanted to be Robert's Hand. And when Robert passed him over in favor of his childhood friend he left, stole the royal fleet, and prepared for war.

Stannis didn't leave immediately after Jon's death. He only left after Robert and Cersei had departed for Winterfell.

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Overall, Stannis' line is doomed if he remains no more than the Lord of DS. This seat is reserved for the heir and he couldn't be heir forever. Nor his daughter. With the loss of Storm's end to his brother - Renly, he and his daughter were destined to fight for the crown. He was in a political cul-de-sac. A man who chose his brother over his King probably should of had a more permanent position offered to him. 

Oh, I don't know. If he had made common cause with Tywin the Lannisters would have rewarded him, most likely.

On 5/26/2018 at 7:21 PM, Ralphis Baratheon said:

To counter Stannis' claims that Cersei's children's are not Robert's, the Crown tried to spread rumors that Stannis was cuckolded by Patchface and the fool was Shireen's real father. That in itself was stupid and helped prove Stannis' point because Shireen has Stannis' blue eyes and square jaw. None of Cersei's children have any physical traits that belonged to Robert or Baratheons in general. The Crown should have just laughed off the rumors of Cersei and Jaime being together as the ramblings of a mad man making a play for the Throne. Instead they tried to throw mud and it landed right back on them. Alas, Stannis lost at the Blackwater and from that point I don't think anyone cared who fathered Joffrey. He sat the Throne and had the allies to keep him there and that's all that matters in the end.

Nobody cares how Shireen Baratheon looks like. Pretty much nobody in Westeros has every seen her, considering she is hidden from the eye of the public on Dragonstone.

12 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Why is it hypocritical for the rightful heir to the king to claim the throne?

The part where he chose not to tell his royal brother what he thought was the truth, waiting until he could seize his brother's throne over the dead bodies of the children his brother the king thought to be his own seed and children.

That is a heinous thing to do.

What do you think Stannis would expect his men to do if they had found out/believe that Shireen is not his own daughter? Sit quietly in the shadows until Stannis is murdered by Selyse and Axell to seat a bastard on the throne - and only then challenge them by declaring Renly king, putting uncle against (alleged) niece - or to go to Stannis at once so he can try to get to the bottom of this whole issue?

All justice comes from the king in this world. Stannis duty would have been to accuse Cersei and Jaime of incest and adultery in the sight of gods and men and then have his brother, King Robert, rule on the matter. And Robert's ruling on the matter would have been final.

11 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Bob was a drunk who had his adopted father run the kingdom, allowed corruption to flourish in the city watch, drank himself into a stupor every night and fathered countless bastards on whores across the kingdom. Stannis was correct in his judgement of his brother 

Stannis is also an adulterer who listens to the advice of a dark sorceress who sends his bastards born of shadows and magic to murder his enemies. By the time of ACoK he is actually much worse than Robert, possibly even worse than Cersei (who only by the time of AFfC starts to use black magic to get what she wants).

But the king is the king. As his younger brother, vassal, and subject Stannis Baratheon owes King Robert Baratheon fealty. The king has every right to judge his subjects and family, but Stannis has no right to judge his king and older brother, nor does he have the right to keep important information from his king.

Judging Stannis by his own standards reveals his hypocrisy on the matter.

It also reveals his ambition. The man wanted to be king. If he hadn't wanted to be king he would have never presumed to crown himself. He would have bent the knee to either King Joffrey or King Renly. If you don't want to be king you can abdicate, you know.

I buy it that Stannis had no ambition to be king while he and his brothers were just the grandsons of Princess Rhaelle and close kin to their royal Targaryen cousins Aerys II and Prince Rhaegar. But once Robert was crowned king, Stannis was his heir presumptive for a time as well as a very important figure at court. He also constantly complained about being not rewarded properly for his service, Storm's End not being granted to him, etc. Those are not the markings of a man who doesn't have any ambitions. A really dutiful man and younger brother would accept the fact that he gets no lands or titles of his own - because that's how things go in this world.

But Stannis couldn't have that. Did Kevan complain all day long that Tywin didn't make him a lord in his own right? Stannis got Dragonstone, the ancestral seat of his Targaryen ancestors who had been the seat of the Heir Apparent to the Iron Throne since the days of King Aenys. But he wasn't content with that.

[SirArthur]

On 5/26/2018 at 1:44 AM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Like he has literally no evidence for any of his suspicions, it seems as though he's assumed Cersi's children aren't Robert's because ultimately he does not them to be; he never himself has a conversation with Cersi where she disclosed her illicit affairs, or read a letter from Ned declaring Stannis as the new king. 

Stannis should "literally" speak for himself in his accusation:

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"And true. Yet you have no proof. Of this incest. No more than you did a year ago."

"There's proof of a sort at Storm's End. Robert's bastard. The one he fathered on my wedding night, in the very bed they'd made up for me and my bride. Delena was a Florent, and a maiden when he took her, so Robert acknowledged the babe. Edric Storm, they call him. He is said to be the very image of my brother. If men were to see him, and then look again at Joffrey and Tommen, they could not help but wonder, I would think."

 

A Clash of Kings - Davos I

 

[Lord Varys]

6 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

Stannis should "literally" speak for himself in his accusation:

A Clash of Kings - Davos I

This is not proof. It is evidence of the kind an ambitious person would use to entice people against his brother's children and to recruit men to his own cause, but it isn't something that confirms the accusations Stannis is making.

I mean, think about it - what Stannis is saying there is that his brother's children favoring their mother rather than their father is a sign that they can't be his brother's children. That is, quite frankly, ridiculous.

People falling for this kind of 'evidence' would be morons - this doesn't mean that people in Westeros won't (they do), but even by Westerosi standards this is very bad evidence.

If Stannis were citing anything else as evidence - like, seeing Jaime/Cersei kissing each other like lovers (and not siblings) do, observing them while having sex, overhearing a conversation where they refer to Robert's children as their own, etc. - then he could make a much better case. He could not *prove* that he heard and saw all that, of course, but he could at least give testimony of what he heard and saw. But he doesn't do that, either.

But all his letter contains is a proclamation that his brother's children aren't his brother's children. That's not evidence. That's just a claim.

And quite frankly - the way Stannis himself developed the notion that his brother's children aren't his brother's children is a very interesting question. One hopes George elaborates on that a little bit more.

If it was just the looks then this wouldn't reflect well on Stannis at all. I actually see no reason why Varys or Littlefinger should give Stannis a hint about the true parentage of Robert's children. They would not want Stannis to get nearer to the Iron Throne than he already is. And Pycelle wouldn't do that, either. So we get back to the looks again.

[The Drunkard]

17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Stannis also has no proof that Jon Arryn was poisoned. The man was past eighty. It could have been a sudden sickness that took him, not some poison. Robert doesn't suspect anything, either. It was not obvious the man was murdered. And as it happens - he was not murdered because he was investigating Robert's children. Stannis doesn't care about investigating Jon's death properly. He thinks he knows that Cersei did it and that's all the evidence he needs - just as him thinking that Cersei's children are not Robert's is all the proof he needs to assume he is the king.

We are not discussing everybody else here - but even if we did, not telling Robert the truth point blank makes Stannis as vile and corrupt (at least in that single point) as are Varys, Littlefinger, and Pycelle - assuming all of them actually have *proof* on the matter (Varys might have some overheard conversations between Jaime and Cersei proving it, but Littlefinger and Pycelle might have as much proof as Stannis has - none).

There is no proof that he can get. Confessions are the only thing that could be considered conclusive in that time, and he isn't in a position to get one on either the parentage or the murder. He can only look at all the clues - all of Robert's bastards looking Baratheon, all Baratheon-Lannister pairings ending with the Baratheon look, all of the royal children looking Lannister, Jon Arryn's sudden death - and either assume that they are coincidence or that his theory is correct. The latter is not unreasonable (and it's mostly true, as it turns out).

The reaction that everyone else had to knowledge of the bastards is relevant if we seek to judge Stannis, and neither Ned nor Jon revealed their investigations and conclusions. Ned for different reasons, but even Jon chose to leave cryptic clues rather than flat-out tell Robert. Renly, if he knew, also chose to keep it secret. I don't blame any one of them given Robert's reaction to bad news and his tendency to let the Lannisters get away with all that they do. 

Given that Stannis thinks Robert will disregard any accusation coming from him as self-serving opportunism (right or wrong, this is what he thinks) he can only work through mediators whom Robert actually cares for, like Jon Arryn. The fact that he enlisted Jon to try and convince Robert is enough for me to think that he had no malicious intent. His refusal to work with Ned (if Pycelle was even sending Ned's letters to Dragonstone) is just evidence of negligence and not caring about Ned, not a desire to see Robert murdered. Which would be pointless given it leaves Stannis with a few thousand men on an island and no one left to back his claim about the royal children. 

[SirArthur]

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I mean, think about it 

 

9 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That's not evidence. That's just a claim.

A lot of things are claims. Joeffrey being Robert's son is also a claim. The important part is not who is the son, but who Robert named his heir. After all adoptions are possible and a crown prince is not just a formal title. 

So let's also discuss the declaration:

Quote

All men know me for the trueborn son of Steffon Baratheon, Lord of Storm's End, by his lady wife Cassana of House Estermont. I declare upon the honor of my House that my beloved brother Robert, our late king, left no trueborn issue of his body, the boy Joffrey, the boy Tommen, and the girl Myrcella being abominations born of incest between Cersei Lannister and her brother Jaime the Kingslayer. By right of birth and blood, I do this day lay claim to the Iron Throne of the Seven Kingdoms of Westeros. Let all true men declare their loyalty. Done in the Light of the Lord, under the sign and seal of Stannis of House Baratheon, the First of His Name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, and Lord of the Seven Kingdoms.

 

1. He declares that he is the brother of Robert. 

2. He declares "by the honor of his house" that Robert has no trueborn children. This is the interesting part and the "honor of his house" is a very strong declaration. Renly Baretheon, the Lord of Storm's End, does not argue against it. If we argue against Stannis at this point we have to argue against Stannis and Renly. 

3. He declares himself by birth. Which is interesting. So even if Joeffrey is Robert's son, he can still declare himself. It does not matter. This would then be a civil war. 

4. He declares himself as LORD of the Seven Kingdoms, not as king. This is an irrelevant point, but we should try to stay closer to the books when we discuss them. 

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

There is no proof that he can get. Confessions are the only thing that could be considered conclusive in that time, and he isn't in a position to get one on either the parentage or the murder. He can only look at all the clues - all of Robert's bastards looking Baratheon, all Baratheon-Lannister pairings ending with the Baratheon look, all of the royal children looking Lannister, Jon Arryn's sudden death - and either assume that they are coincidence or that his theory is correct. The latter is not unreasonable (and it's mostly true, as it turns out).

He could get confessions if he had convinced the king about his accusations, causing the king to question Cersei and Jaime 'sharply'.

And again - after Jon's sudden death Stannis had more than enough reason to believe that his suspicions are correct. King Robert himself may be in danger. Yet he does ... nothing. That can be seen as treason by remaining silent.

It is not up for the accuser or witness of a crime to remain silent because he thinks the judge won't rule in his favor. You simply don't have that right.

Quote

The reaction that everyone else had to knowledge of the bastards is relevant if we seek to judge Stannis, and neither Ned nor Jon revealed their investigations and conclusions. Ned for different reasons, but even Jon chose to leave cryptic clues rather than flat-out tell Robert. Renly, if he knew, also chose to keep it secret. I don't blame any one of them given Robert's reaction to bad news and his tendency to let the Lannisters get away with all that they do. 

We actually don't know whether Jon Arryn actually believed that Cersei's children were not Robert's. He may also have merely feared that this was the case, having it weigh heavy on his conscience what it would have meant if this was the case. After all, he was the one pushing for the Robert-Cersei marriage - which means he, Jon Arryn, would have been mainly responsible for the civil wars and the fall of House Baratheon after the end of Robert's reign. As well as for the personal tragedy and the mock marriage of his foster son Robert Baratheon, of course.

After all, if he had really believed it, he would have told Robert while he lay dying. Robert sat at his bedside for hours, after all.

Renly didn't know. He also didn't care when he learned, but he didn't know.

Ned makes it clear that Robert wouldn't have taken this thing lightly. He believes Robert would have killed Jaime, Cersei, and the children had he found out the truth. Cersei also makes it clear that Robert didn't love her - making it very unlikely that he would have favored her take on the matter after somebody had told him about the incest thing. I mean, an accusation such as this would have been poison in any case. Even if it wasn't true Robert - not liking Cersei - would have never looked at her the same again after hearing such an accusation, even if he hadn't immediately acted upon it.

Quote

Given that Stannis thinks Robert will disregard any accusation coming from him as self-serving opportunism (right or wrong, this is what he thinks) he can only work through mediators whom Robert actually cares for, like Jon Arryn. The fact that he enlisted Jon to try and convince Robert is enough for me to think that he had no malicious intent. His refusal to work with Ned (if Pycelle was even sending Ned's letters to Dragonstone) is just evidence of negligence and not caring about Ned, not a desire to see Robert murdered. Which would be pointless given it leaves Stannis with a few thousand men on an island and no one left to back his claim about the royal children. 

Stannis had no malicious intent back when he talked to Jon Arryn, yes, but he most definitely had such an intent when he didn't talk to Robert nor reach out to him or Ned (Ned wrote several letters to him which the man didn't even answer!) after Jon's death. He wanted to be Hand, Robert passed him over, and then he abandoned his brother (and Ned) to his enemies.

The idea that the letters may not have been sent at all is interesting but unfounded at this point. Pycelle later sends Tyrion's letter to Dorne - he only shows the second letter he was supposed to send to Cersei.

Just think what would have happened if Stannis had returned to KL for the Tourney of the Hand. How they could have prevented everything that happened later.

I'm also not saying Stannis wanted Robert to get murdered. I'm saying he could live with it if that happened. When chose to abandon his brother he expected him to die. Else he wouldn't have prepared for war and taken most of the royal fleet long before Robert died. Stannis didn't close down Dragonstone only after Robert died, after all.

There are a lot of ways how Stannis could have warned Robert about what was going on (in his opinion) without risking to face his wrath. He could have left him a later explaining everything when he left for Dragonstone, for instance. He could have written him or Ned later. He could have sent messengers to either Robert or Ned. He could have left men he trusted in the city to approach Ned and/or Robert after he left, he could have publicly accused Cersei and Jaime of incest and adultery and denounced Robert's children as bastards while Robert was still alive, etc.

The possibilities there are endless. Instead he did nothing to prevent the tragedy he expected to come. That doesn't reflect well on him no matter how one tries to spin it.

23 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

A lot of things are claims. Joeffrey being Robert's son is also a claim. The important part is not who is the son, but who Robert named his heir. After all adoptions are possible and a crown prince is not just a formal title. 

Robert believed Joffrey and his siblings to be his children and that's why he named Joffrey his Heir Apparent

23 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

1. He declares that he is the brother of Robert. 

Nobody disputes that.

23 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

2. He declares "by the honor of his house" that Robert has no trueborn children. This is the interesting part and the "honor of his house" is a very strong declaration. Renly Baretheon, the Lord of Storm's End, does not argue against it. If we argue against Stannis at this point we have to argue against Stannis and Renly. 

Renly makes it clear he doesn't care. But he doesn't reveal whether he believes Stannis or not.

23 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

4. He declares himself as LORD of the Seven Kingdoms, not as king. This is an irrelevant point, but we should try to stay closer to the books when we discuss them. 

You should reread the paragraph you quoted there again:

Quote

Done in the Light of the Lord, under the sign and seal of Stannis of House Baratheon, the First of His Name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, and Lord of the Seven Kingdoms.

Stannis does declare himself king.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nobody cares how Shireen Baratheon looks like. Pretty much nobody in Westeros has every seen her, considering she is hidden from the eye of the public on Dragonstone.

So what was the point of trying to start rumors that would question her legitimacy? It's not like anyone was trying put Shireen on the Throne at the time. Why counter a slanderous rumor with another? I doubt Tywin would have approved of that type of mud slinging had he been in the capital at the time. The Crown lost the moral high ground when they tried to start that Patch face rumor. 

"Joff's not a bastard your daughter is"

It was all very silly. 

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

So what was the point of trying to start rumors that would question her legitimacy? It's not like anyone was trying put Shireen on the Throne at the time. Why counter a slanderous rumor with another? I doubt Tywin would have approved of that type of mud slinging had he been in the capital at the time. The Crown lost the moral high ground when they tried to start that Patch face rumor. 

"Joff's not a bastard your daughter is"

It was all very silly. 

No, it worked very effectively because if you muddy the water then people eventually lose track/don't care how clear water looks like or tastes. Meaning that if people believe Shireen Baratheon is a bastard and Stannis' heiress then they don't really care that Cersei's children are bastards while being Robert's heirs and successors.

Keep in mind that the Iron Throne never publicly denounced Shireen Baratheon as a bastard born of adultery - they had agents spread this tale. A couple of people may have realized/concluded that the story may have been spread by the Lannisters, but for most of the people hearing it would have just been a rumor and another funny tale.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

37 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

No, it worked very effectively because if you muddy the water then people eventually lose track/don't care how clear water looks like or tastes. Meaning that if people believe Shireen Baratheon is a bastard and Stannis' heiress then they don't really care that Cersei's children are bastards while being Robert's heirs and successors

They don't really care either way. Stannis got nowhere when he "declared" Cersei's children bastards. In return Stannis didn't lose any men after the Patchface rumor. All that mattered in the end was who won on the Blackwater.  

37 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Keep in mind that the Iron Throne never publicly denounced Shireen Baratheon as a bastard born of adultery - they had agents spread this tale. A couple of people may have realized/concluded that the story may have been spread by the Lannisters, but for most of the people hearing it would have just been a rumor and another funny tale.

Yes, so it accomplished very little in the end. A silly tale for silly people to gossip about. Honestly, the Crown would have been better off spreading a rumor that Shireen was still infected with Greyscale and Stannis and his army were as well. Now that might have scared some people away from Stannis' cause. People are much more afraid of disease then possible bastardy.