So Stannis has literally no good reason for thinking himself king right?

[Megorova]

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

there is no evidence that 60%  of the characters in the Stormlands have brown hair. You have made that up. And are using a made up claim to make up other claims. With those kind of skills you are wasted on this forum, you should be working in political journalism (either side). 

To make it easier, I would be beyond amazed if you could name 20 Stormland characters with brown hair using actual quotes from the books. 

Out of known Stormlanders, hair color was given only for 15 characters:

1. Robert Baratheon - black
2. Stannis - black
3. Renly - black
4. Edric Storm - black
5. Andrew Estermont - brown
6. Davos Seaworth - brown
7. Devan Seaworth - brown
8. Dale Seaworth - brown
9. Richard Horpe - dark
10. Meryn Trant - red
11. Cortnay Penrose - red
12. Jon Connington - red
13. Ronnet Connington - red
14. Justin Massey - blond
15. Brienne Tarth - blond

9 out of 15 dark-haired - 60%
4 out of 15 red-haired - 26,7%
2 out of 15 blond - 13,3%

My claims from way above, that majority of Stormlanders are dark-haired, is based on known hair color of described in the books characters. There is basis for my claim. My proof is those 9 people out of known 15.

We don't know looks of all inhabitants of Stormlands, we have descriptions of only 15 people. My conclusion is based on available information. Obviously, that when we will get more information, then those numbers may change. But so far, based on info, that was given for now, 60% of Stormlanders, whose description was given in the books, are dark-haired.

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

That is true. I am basing my argument on what we know, what Stannis has shared with the reader and if he decides to tell us more then I will change my position. But until then I stand by everything I have said. 

Ok. Look at it from this angle - Stannis was investigating Robert's children; Ned Stark was able to trace Stannis' activity on that matter; what is more likely - that all of what Stannis was doing, was easily found out by Ned, or that Ned was able to trace, only some of what Stannis did in course of his investigation? I think, that second option is more likely. It's logical assumption, that there was more information, that so far was left off-pages.

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

And Ormund may have been a red head. 

Based on three Baratheon brothers, and on Orys Baratheon, and what Ned has read in that book, "brand look" of Baratheons for many generations was black hair. Thus, most likely, based on known information, it's logical to assume, that Ormund and other Baratheons were black-haired.

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Should also be noted that Lann the Clever was golden haired, the Lannisters have remarkably been blonde for far longer than House Baratheon existed and in that time the ruling Kings/Lords of Casterly Rock must have had their fair share of dark haired brides and lo and behold they are still blonde. 

"Author George R.R. Martin has stated that the series was loosely inspired by the War of the Roses which occurred in Britain during the fifteenth century. The First Men loosely parallel the original Celtic inhabitants of Britain, while the Andals who later invaded and conquered Westeros are loosely parallel to the Anglo-Saxon invasions of Britain during the fifth and sixth centuries."

Celts were mostly dark-haired with longer skulls, and Anglo-Saxons were mostly blond and had rounder skulls.

Many people in Westerlands are blond, because population of that region heavily mixed with Andals.

 

Though let's stop getting off topic, and stick with discussing Stannis.

[Varysblackfyre321]

55 minutes ago, Megorova said:

y claims from way above, that majority of Stormlanders are dark-haired, is based on known hair color of described in the books characters. There is basis for my claim. My proof is those 9 people out of known 15.

 

Davos and his sons aren't stormlanders. They don't trace their lineage there anyway. Davos is from Fleabottom which is in kinglsanding, and his son's mother is from white harbor.

 

[Bernie Mac]

7 hours ago, Megorova said:

Out of known Stormlanders, hair color was given only for 15 characters:

wow, you are seriously basing you claim of knowing the percentage on the population of a few million based on a sample size of 15 characters? that is not proof, especially when 9 of the 13 come from 2 families. 

And once again, no one has claimed that your guess is wrong, just that your claim that there is actual 'proof' to make that claim. The sample size you are picking from is minuscule to be of any actual use.  

Quote

1. Robert Baratheon - black
2. Stannis - black
3. Renly - black
4. Edric Storm - black
5. Andrew Estermont - brown
6. Davos Seaworth - brown
7. Devan Seaworth - brown
8. Dale Seaworth - brown
9. Richard Horpe - dark
10. Meryn Trant - red
11. Cortnay Penrose - red
12. Jon Connington - red
13. Ronnet Connington - red
14. Justin Massey - blond
15. Brienne Tarth - blond

Well first things first, Ronnet has a son who is described as a 'fierce red head' as well as the coolest character from the Stormlands,  the red haired Beric. that is two to add right there. 

On top of that neither Davos or his wife are from the Stormlands, Davos and his oldest son, the married captain Dale, were clearly not even born in the Stormlands. At best you can include Devan who was likely born there, despite being the son of two immigrants to the Stormlands. 

 

Quote

My claims from way above, that majority of Stormlanders are dark-haired, is based on known hair color of described in the books characters. There is basis for my claim. My proof is those 9 people out of known 15.

Givent they you have based you claim on 13 Stormlanders and 2 Crownlanders, I can't say I respect your findings. Also overlooking Beric seems bizarre, he is hardly some unknown character. 

Quote

We don't know looks of all inhabitants of Stormlands, we have descriptions of only 15 people.

We have more than that. It took me literally two minutes after reading your post to think of other characters. You simply didn't do the research, much like Stannis. 

You made a claim based on flimsy findings, have not bothered to do any more investigation on the subject and would rather be righteous in your original assessment rather than admit that there is the chance that you could be wrong. Now like Stannis, you may be right in your uneducated guess, but that is what it is. You or Stannis don't have actual evidence. 

This is why this discussion is incredibly meta. 

Quote

 

My conclusion is based on available information. Obviously, that when we will get more information, then those numbers may change. But so far, based on info, that was given for now, 60% of Stormlanders, whose description was given in the books, are dark-haired.

It is kind of funny, even if you had actually bothered to do better research you'd still be wrong, but the fact that you didn't and are still acting this righteous is incredibly funny. 

You feeling vindicated after finding out that the Seaworths had brown hair, despite being from the Crownlands, reminds me of Stannis feeling vindicated because the Lannisters murdered Jon Arryn, despite the fact that they did not. There is some beautiful symmetry in this. 

 

Quote

Ok. Look at it from this angle - Stannis was investigating Robert's children; Ned Stark was able to trace Stannis' activity on that matter; what is more likely - that all of what Stannis was doing, was easily found out by Ned, or that Ned was able to trace, only some of what Stannis did in course of his investigation? I think, that second option is more likely. It's logical assumption, that there was more information, that so far was left off-pages.

Ned got an admission of guilt from Cersei herself. Stannis did not. Ned actually has evidence, a confession from the only person who actually knew. 

 

Quote

Based on three Baratheon brothers, and on Orys Baratheon, and what Ned has read in that book, "brand look" of Baratheons for many generations was black hair. Thus, most likely, based on known information, it's logical to assume, that Ormund and other Baratheons were black-haired.

It is logical, but that is not 'evidence'. We know of people with Baratheon blood who took after the other parent. Having a Baratheon parent does not guarantee that the child would have black hair, otherwise the majority of the Stormland nobility would have black hair after 300 years of Baratheon rule. 

Quote

Many people in Westerlands are blond, because population of that region heavily mixed with Andals.

Again, we have no evidence about the hair colour of the majority of the Westerlands. 

Quote

 

Though let's stop getting off topic, and stick with discussing Stannis.

i'm always amused when people do this. Type out their own reply and then finish it with saying they we should now end the discussion. Ladies and Gentlemen, if you were truly sincere with that thought you would start and finish with that sentiment, you would not try to enforce that you get the final word. 

[300 H&H Magnum]

Having any claim satisfies the moral requirement in the eyes of many.  The rest is ambition.  Just a doubt regarding the sire of Cersei's children would encourage a man like Stannis to claim the throne for himself.  

[Varysblackfyre321]

On May 25, 2018 at 4:58 PM, Lord Lannister said:

So basically another "I don't like this character and no one else should either" thread?

Meh, every interesting charachter has his own major virtues and flaws worth discussing. I don't begrudge anyone for liking Stannis(fact I find his charachter compelling and interesting), despite some of his flaws anymore than I can begrudge anyone for liking Tyrion(a rapist and murderer), or Jamie(a sister-fucker, murderer), or Robert(a man who nearly beat a child to death and thinks crippled children should be euthanized).

Wanting to discuss  a perceived flaws in characters doesn't necessarily mean "I hate this charachter and you should too"  

[Varysblackfyre321]

On May 28, 2018 at 2:22 AM, Lord Varys said:

confessions if he had convinced the king about his accusations, causing the king to question Cersei and Jaime 'sharply'.

 

To be clear confessions aren't the only means of establishing guilt-Robert could elect to have Cersi watched/spied upon; I imagine the person tasked with monitoring the movements not having to wait that long based on Jaimie irritation sat having to  spend a few months not having sex with her. 

Torture in terms of confessions isn't meant to find out if a person did in fact do a crime(for that has already been accepted by the perpetrators of it), but for the tortured to get to the point where he(or she), is willingly to admit what the torture already knows. 

[Bael's Bastard]

On 5/25/2018 at 7:44 PM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Like he has literally no evidence for any of his suspicions, it seems as though he's assumed Cersi's children aren't Robert's because ultimately he does not them to be; he never himself has a conversation with Cersi where she disclosed her illicit affairs, or read a letter from Ned declaring Stannis as the new king. 

I don't know it seems rather befuddling for a man who touts justice being so great and the law being law would pursue an endeavor not truly having a good foundation for why he shouldn't think it's treason. 

It seems slightly hypocrital no?

Incorrect. Stannis was very clearly in on Jon Arryn's path to discovery about the paternity of Cersei's children, and it was surely not coincidental that Jon intended to break his agreement with Tywin and foster little Robert with Stannis. That Ned came to the same conclusion as Jon independently probably only served to confirm it to Stannis. 

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Eddard VI
"Carrots and apples," Ned repeated. It sounded as if this boy would be even less use than the others. And he was the last of the four Littlefinger had turned up. Jory had spoken to each of them in turn. Ser Hugh had been brusque and uninformative, and arrogant as only a new-made knight can be. If the Hand wished to talk to him, he should be pleased to receive him, but he would not be questioned by a mere captain of guards … even if said captain was ten years older and a hundred times the swordsman. The serving girl had at least been pleasant. She said Lord Jon had been reading more than was good for him, that he was troubled and melancholy over his young son's frailty, and gruff with his lady wife. The potboy, now cordwainer, had never exchanged so much as a word with Lord Jon, but he was full of oddments of kitchen gossip: the lord had been quarreling with the king, the lord only picked at his food, the lord was sending his boy to be fostered on Dragonstone, the lord had taken a great interest in the breeding of hunting hounds, the lord had visited a master armorer to commission a new suit of plate, wrought all in pale silver with a blue jasper falcon and a mother-of-pearl moon on the breast. The king's own brother had gone with him to help choose the design, the potboy said. No, not Lord Renly, the other one, Lord Stannis.

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Eddard VI
"The lad swears Lord Jon was as strong as a man half his age. Often went riding with Lord Stannis, he says."
Stannis again, Ned thought. He found that curious. Jon Arryn and he had been cordial, but never friendly. And while Robert had been riding north to Winterfell, Stannis had removed himself to Dragonstone, the Targaryen island fastness he had conquered in his brother's name. He had given no word as to when he might return. "Where did they go on these rides?" Ned asked.

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Eddard VIII
And yet, the thought of leaving angered him as well. So much was still undone. Robert and his council of cravens and flatterers would beggar the realm if left unchecked … or, worse, sell it to the Lannisters in payment of their loans. And the truth of Jon Arryn's death still eluded him. Oh, he had found a few pieces, enough to convince him that Jon had indeed been murdered, but that was no more than the spoor of an animal on the forest floor. He had not sighted the beast itself yet, though he sensed it was there, lurking, hidden, treacherous.
It struck him suddenly that he might return to Winterfell by sea. Ned was no sailor, and ordinarily would have preferred the kingsroad, but if he took ship he could stop at Dragonstone and speak with Stannis Baratheon. Pycelle had sent a raven off across the water, with a polite letter from Ned requesting Lord Stannis to return to his seat on the small council. As yet, there had been no reply, but the silence only deepened his suspicions. Lord Stannis shared the secret Jon Arryn had died for, he was certain of it. The truth he sought might very well be waiting for him on the ancient island fortress of House Targaryen.

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Catelyn IX
"And your sister, that one, she's full as bad. It was, oh, a year ago, no more, Jon Arryn was still the King's Hand, and I went to the city to see my sons ride in the tourney. Stevron and Jared are too old for the lists now, but Danwell and Hosteen rode, Perwyn as well, and a couple of my bastards tried the melee. If I'd known how they'd shame me, I would never have troubled myself to make the journey. Why did I need to ride all that way to see Hosteen knocked off his horse by that Tyrell whelp? I ask you. The boy's half his age, Ser Daisy they call him, something like that. And Danwell was unhorsed by a hedge knight! Some days I wonder if those two are truly mine. My third wife was a Crakehall, all of the Crakehall women are sluts. Well, never mind about that, she died before you were born, what do you care?
"I was speaking of your sister. I proposed that Lord and Lady Arryn foster two of my grandsons at court, and offered to take their own son to ward here at the Twins. Are my grandsons unworthy to be seen at the king's court? They are sweet boys, quiet and mannerly. Walder is Merrett's son, named after me, and the other one … heh, I don't recall … he might have been another Walder, they're always naming them Walder so I'll favor them, but his father … which one was his father now?" His face wrinkled up. "Well, whoever he was, Lord Arryn wouldn't have him, or the other one, and I blame your lady sister for that. She frosted up as if I'd suggested selling her boy to a mummer's show or making a eunuch out of him, and when Lord Arryn said the child was going to Dragonstone to foster with Stannis Baratheon, she stormed off without a word of regrets and all the Hand could give me was apologies. What good are apologies? I ask you."
Catelyn frowned, disquieted. "I had understood that Lysa's boy was to be fostered with Lord Tywin at Casterly Rock."
"No, it was Lord Stannis," Walder Frey said irritably. "Do you think I can't tell Lord Stannis from Lord Tywin? They're both bungholes who think they're too noble to shit, but never mind about that, I know the difference. Or do you think I'm so old I can't remember? I'm ninety and I remember very well. I remember what to do with a woman too. That wife of mine will give me a son before this time next year, I'll wager. Or a daughter, that can't be helped. Boy or girl, it will be red, wrinkled, and squalling, and like as not she'll want to name it Walder or Walda."
Catelyn was not concerned with what Lady Frey might choose to name her child. "Jon Arryn was going to foster his son with Lord Stannis, you are quite certain of that?"
"Yes, yes, yes," the old man said. "Only he died, so what does it matter? You say you want to cross the river?"

 

[Bael's Bastard]

On 5/25/2018 at 8:02 PM, Lord Varys said:

It shows that he really wants to be king and that he is willing to act only on his own beliefs/suspicions without having any proof.

And the fact that he wasn't even willing to talk to Robert about his suspicions also reflects pretty badly on him. It would have been part wounded pride and part suppressed ambition. Let the drunkard die, and then a competent king will sit the throne. A man who is not to be mocked, etc.

Do we know for sure that Jon and/or Stannis never tried to broach the subject with Robert? If Jon was quarreling with Robert, and even Walder Frey knew that Jon intended to foster little Robert with Stannis, then it seems likely that Robert had been told of Jon's intent to break his fostering agreement with Tywin, and it seems at least possible that he attempted to broach the reason(s) why with the king.

[Tagganaro]

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Incorrect. Stannis was very clearly in on Jon Arryn's path to discovery about the paternity of Cersei's children, and it was surely not coincidental that Jon intended to break his agreement with Tywin and foster little Robert with Stannis. That Ned came to the same conclusion as Jon independently probably only served to confirm it to Stannis. 

This exactly.  It's one thing to say that Stannis is biased in terms of his investigation of Cersei's children, but when you add in that both Jon Arryn and Ned came to the same conclusion it's pretty crazy to say Stannis has "no good reason" for thinking that Cersei's children aren't Robert's.

And I'm pretty sure Stannis flat-out states why he didn't go to Robert with his accusations- he knew Robert would be dismissive of them coming from Stannis as they would seem self-serving so Stannis instead went to Jon Arryn thinking that if Jon could go to Robert with them Robert would be more inclined to listen.  And Stannis is certainly right that from what we know of Robert, he would not take this information well coming from Stannis so it makes perfect sense.

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

 and it was surely not coincidental that Jon intended to break his agreement with Tywin and foster little Robert with Stannis.

of course he had to, with the possibility that there may be a civil war in the realm Jon is not going to send his son, the soon to be Lord of the Vale, as a ward.

this is just common sense whether Stannis' theory is true or not. It would be the same in any situation were a state found out there was potentially going to be a war, they don't send high value potential hostages to the other state. 

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

That Ned came to the same conclusion as Jon independently probably only served to confirm it to Stannis. 

Stannis, like when he heard of Arryn's death, is jumping to conclusions on this one. He does not know why Ned was arrested, it suits his narrative to assume it is about incest but Stannis does not know that.  It is a clear case of confirmation basis. 

And Ned did not come to his conclusion independently, he was led there by Littlefinger, Lysa, his own hatred of the Lannisters and finally a slice of luck over a phrase his daughter said about Robert and Joffrey.

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

of course he had to, with the possibility that there may be a civil war in the realm Jon is not going to send his son, the soon to be Lord of the Vale, as a ward.

this is just common sense whether Stannis' theory is true or not. It would be the same in any situation were a state found out there was potentially going to be a war, they don't send high value potential hostages to the other state. 

Stannis, like when he heard of Arryn's death, is jumping to conclusions on this one. He does not know why Ned was arrested, it suits his narrative to assume it is about incest but Stannis does not know that.  It is a clear case of confirmation basis. 

And Ned did not come to his conclusion independently, he was led there by Littlefinger, Lysa, his own hatred of the Lannisters and finally a slice of luck over a phrase his daughter said about Robert and Joffrey.

After re-checking, my assumption that Jon had ever agreed to foster little Robert with Tywin appears to have been baseless, as it appears, based on AGOT - Eddard I,  that Tywin consented to fostering little Robert at the instigation of King Robert, presumably after Jon's death. Lysa confirms in ASOS - Sansa VII that Jon had intended to foster him with Stannis, while King Robert "would have given him to Cersei Lannister."

Not sure what point you are trying to make. Ned definitely came to his conclusion independently of Stannis's suspicions and Jon's findings/conclusions, which was my point. He wasn't simply told of this theory by Stannis or Jon or anyone else, even if he was led to some of the same sources which led them to suspect or conclude the true paternity of Cersei's children. 

[Roswell]

On 5/26/2018 at 2:18 PM, Lollygag said:

Casting doubt is the best that anyone could do. There is no way to "prove" identity or non-identity with certainty. It all leaves people free to believe what they want.

Just wondering, what better "proof" can you come up with which doesn't leave room for any doubt?

Gosh, an admission from Jaime and Cersei would do very nicely.  Many witnesses who saw J & C in the act.  An album alone is not enough.  

[Lollygag]

3 minutes ago, The Transporter said:

Gosh, an admission from Jaime and Cersei would do very nicely.  Many witnesses who saw J & C in the act.  An album alone is not enough.  

Witnesses can always be called biased or unreliable. Even in real life court cases, they're problematic. You're in the same position of believing it if you want to and denying it if you don't want to. Not like they have video and photographs.

And just why would they admit that? It puts their kids in danger. Jaime wanted to come out with it because he didn't care anymore but Jaime admits bluntly to himself that he never cared for any of his kids. Not so with Cersei. There's no point in suggesting implausible options.

[Roswell]

My point being you need more than one album to serve as the evidence.  Testimony plus album is better.  Testimony plus album plus admission is enough.  

[Lollygag]

9 minutes ago, The Transporter said:

My point being you need more than one album to serve as the evidence.  Testimony plus album is better.  Testimony plus album plus admission is enough.  

What do you mean by album? I've not heard that word used in the US in the context you're using it.

[Roswell]

Baratheon family record.  Including the physical description of the family.  The book Jon Arryn was interested in. 

[Lollygag]

Just now, The Transporter said:

Baratheon family record.  Including the physical description of the family.  The book Jon Arryn was interested in. 

Ah. Family album. I checked out of this thread a while ago.

Sure, all of those combined are better, but it's not reasonable to expect this level of proof of anyone in Westeros. The justice system is whatever the authority figure feels at any given moment or whomever wins a fight.

There will be no admission and everyone knows it. Even in real life, those are extremely rare unless you can make the accused feel as though they have no other choice. No point for Stannis to pursue it nor anyone to ask for it. And I already explained why witnesses would be a waste of time for Stannis.

I don't disagree with your overall point, just in it's application to a medieval-based fantasy world with murderous shadow babies, dragons, and ice zombies. Stannis offered plenty of evidence for those who wanted to believe it.

 

 

[Roswell]

"for those who wanted to believe it"

Neutral people will need more to buy the slander.  

[Lollygag]

2 minutes ago, The Transporter said:

"for those who wanted to believe it"

Neutral people will need more to buy the slander.  

The Westerosi will support the monarch whom they like and think will benefit them most in power, prestige and money. Few care about the "truth". It's all over the series which is called A Game of Thrones.

Again, you're applying real world standards to a very different fictional world.

[chrisdaw]

When you think something, and you are right, it is called knowing. Stannis knows he is king. That he is rightfully king and knows it, is important, because the point is going to be made that even then it doesn't matter, that his responsibility as king to defend his realm and his subjects is not so great as to require him to sacrifice the life of his daughter.