Cersei's thoughts about Joffrey's betrothal to Sansa

[Springwatch]

14 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Again, Cersei is probably not planning a full-on rape, but a torn dress and a story from the crown prince about how a drunken Sansa threw herself at him -- that would be enough to call off the wedding. But even if Joffrey did take her maidenhead, he can still claim he was seduced because, you know, women are wanton and are always trying to lure men away from their inherent male saintliness.

Sansa is only much-loved by her own family. No one else knows what she is really like. Same for Joffrey; he presents himself very well in public but few people know the real boy.

Again then.

• Joffrey is almost certainly a virgin, and Cersei thinks he is not interested in girls. She would not make this kind of plan.
• Sansa is eleven years old, innocent and naive. She has been travelling with the royal party for weeks, maybe months - not hidden away, but out where curious people can meet her. They know she's not a drunken, wanton woman, she's a little eleven-year-old girl, the good girl, courteous and eager to please.
• Joffrey is well known too. There's not really much privacy in a world full of servants.

So the plot fails at the outset, because it is just unbelievable.

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If the betrothal is off, it is very unlikely that Ned will continue as Hand. Too much shame for House Stark; too much of a scandal.

You misread Ned badly - what he's famous for is honour, not for pride and snobbery. Cat's the same: Family, Duty, Honor. They are already hunting the murderers of Jon Arryn, and the attempted murderers of Bran. They will defend Sansa's honour just as fiercely.

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The Hound is sworn to the protect the prince, not follow his orders to the letter. He should have followed Joff wherever he want. All Joff said was to back off of Sansa, not to take the rest of the day off. If Joff did try to dismiss him so he could go off riding with Sansa, he should have immediately reported to the Queen. The fact that he did none of this but still has his head on his shoulders is the most damning evidence of all that this was all set up.

This makes no sense. If there had been a plot as you describe, sending out guards to follow and 'witness' Drunken Predatory Slut Sansa in action would be exactly the right thing to do. The fact that there were none says clearly that there was no such plot.

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Rather than spend the day taking the measure or otherwise influencing the girl who will someday marry her son and rule as her queen, Cersei would rather sit and discuss idle matters with Barry, Renly and Payne?

Sansa is eleven years old. Of course Cersei prefers to talk to grown-ups. Of course she wants to hear what's been happening in the months she's been away.

[punzerknacker]

Joff and Sansa were allowed riding off on their own because it was necessary for the whole scene with Arya, and Lady's resulting death, to happen. Sure George could have come up with some better excuse why they were on their own but when he wrote that book he didn't expect people to dissect every single word and look for hidden plots everywhere. Even though he is a careful writer, he has to bend the rules of his universe every now and then. Also see the hand's tourney where Sansa and Joff were again without much supervision, if I recall correctly...

[FictionIsntReal]

I know there's a double standard against women in Westeros, but I think if Joffrey is known to have deflowered his betrothed, no way is he THEN getting out of marrying her. The wedding may just have to be moved up. Cersei can complain all she wants about Sansa's moral character (and I also don't think there's any evidence she was opposed to Sansa at this point), but everyone else (who came up with this marital alliance in the first place) will overrule her.

Also, since Ser Ilyn received some mockery, I'll remind you that the other half of the incestuous Lannister twins found him an ideal conversational partner!

[John Suburbs]

On ‎6‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 3:09 PM, Nevets said:

So, in other words, you can give me no reason to believe that either Cersei or Joffrey had any intent to harm Sansa, or indeed, any animus toward her at all during this period.  Good to know.   I will therefore consider this theory as being non-operative until such time as I am given a solid reason to believe otherwise.

And you can give me no reason to believe that Cersei, who trusts nobody on the planet, not even her own father or brothers, has complete faith and trust in Sansa and is fully on-board with marrying her co-dependent son to the daughter of a man she considers to be her most imminent political threat. Good to know. I will therefore consider this theory as being non-operative until such time as I am given a solid reason to believe otherwise.

[BlackLightning]

On ‎5‎/‎30‎/‎2018 at 4:30 PM, punzerknacker said:

We didn't have a Cersei POV back when they were still betrothed. But Cersei hates all women and girls, plus Joffrey was her favourite child so no one could be good enough for him. I doubt she would approve of any match for Joff because she feels threatened by the YMBQ prophecy.

But was she even thinking about the YMBQ prophecy back then?

Her fears only seemed to resurface and become an obsession in Feast.

On ‎5‎/‎30‎/‎2018 at 4:46 PM, John Suburbs said:

I don't think she wanted the marriage at all, considering how it would have elevated House Stark to royal status. I'm sure she would have preferred a bride from a junior branch of House Lannister, but years into the future.

This partly explains that unusual outing Joffrey and Sansa had on the Trident. There is absolutely no way the crown prince and the daughter of the Warden of the North should have been allowed to just go riding off alone through strange country. Even Robert and Ned have a tail when they leave camp. And there were no consequences to the Hound for forsaking his sworn duty to protect the prince at all costs.

My suspicion is that Cersei set it up so that Joff could get Sansa alone and defile her, which would make her ineligible to be queen even if she was the victim, which Joffrey would deny of course. Cersei was going to host Sansa and Arya for the day, but in the end has to speak with the "good councilors" (which I take to mean Renly, Selmy and Payne). What could she possibly need to speak to these three about for the entire day?

In the end, however, I believe Joffrey was planning to kill her, since his attempt on Bran has apparently failed. It's all part of another theory in which Littlefinger manipulated Joff into thinking that the death of a Stark child is the only thing to prevent Ned from becoming Hand, which would of course be very bad for Joffrey. So I think Joff's plan was to get her drunk and then drown her in the river or something. Good thing they ran into Arya and Mycah instead.

 

Whoa.

I never thought of that. But that's exactly the kind of twisted, disgustingly self-serving schemes that Cersei is known for. But I think it's a good sign that I never ever imagined that to be true.

I do think that Sansa had probably won over Cersei (as much as a person like Cersei could be won over) by the end of Game. Definitely by the time Cersei had The Talk with her in Clash.

On ‎5‎/‎31‎/‎2018 at 10:26 AM, Springwatch said:

Cersei genuinely loved Sansa. And so:

• No alarm bells on the younger queen front (there should have been!)
• Joff and Cersei hold on to the Sansa engagement way after its political purpose is lost.
• Tyrion can threaten Joff with Cersei's disapproval of Sansa's beatings. (Cersei has been turning a blind eye to the beatings, but seemingly both Tyrion and Joff know she would flare up if forced to take notice.)
• Shock and disbelief at the Tyrell plot ('Sansa is my hostage!' Why say 'my'? Cersei defers to Tywin in everything else.)
• Confidential, almost heart-to-heart conversations with Sansa (briefly, sometimes).
• An exquisite wedding dress for Sansa, and a choice of the queen's own perfumes.
• An extreme sense of betrayal at Sansa's 'murder' of Joff. As if Sansa was an adopted daughter, not a hostage.

Cersei's love is not worth much. She says love is poison, and lives up to it.

ETA

Somehow I never noticed this before. Cersei was charmed! and by Sansa. This is quite funny; at the same time Sansa was being charmed by Cersei - actually completely rolled over by Cersei - at the same time Cersei herself succumbed to the charm of her lovely future daughter-in-law. This is great; the little bird has got it; she had the gift all along.

I don't think that Cersei is capable of love either.

But I do think Cersei fell for Sansa's charms and became truly affectionate...in her own way. If this was intentional, then I applaud GRRM for foreshadowing Sansa's skills and future as basically the heroic female version of Littlefinger: an endlessly charming, seemingly harmless, emotionally intelligent Machiavellian courtier.

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Again then.

• Joffrey is almost certainly a virgin, and Cersei thinks he is not interested in girls. She would not make this kind of plan.
• Sansa is eleven years old, innocent and naive. She has been travelling with the royal party for weeks, maybe months - not hidden away, but out where curious people can meet her. They know she's not a drunken, wanton woman, she's a little eleven-year-old girl, the good girl, courteous and eager to please.
• Joffrey is well known too. There's not really much privacy in a world full of servants.

So the plot fails at the outset, because it is just unbelievable.

You misread Ned badly - what he's famous for is honour, not for pride and snobbery. Cat's the same: Family, Duty, Honor. They are already hunting the murderers of Jon Arryn, and the attempted murderers of Bran. They will defend Sansa's honour just as fiercely.

This makes no sense. If there had been a plot as you describe, sending out guards to follow and 'witness' Drunken Predatory Slut Sansa in action would be exactly the right thing to do. The fact that there were none says clearly that there was no such plot.

Sansa is eleven years old. Of course Cersei prefers to talk to grown-ups. Of course she wants to hear what's been happening in the months she's been away.

Joffrey is devious and conniving and completely under his mother's spell. Just look at his behavior at the riverside feast during the Hand's tourney. It is certainly well-within his character to stage some sort of incident to cause people to question her fitness to be queen. But I think he was going to go further. I think his plan was to get her drunk and drown her in the river.

A few months on the road in which Sansa voices all her practiced courtesies and is constantly shadowed by her septa in no way allows people to form conclusions as to what she is really like. Same for Joffrey. Rumors through the servant-net are just that: rumors. He presents himself as courteous and polite as well. Why would people arbitrarily choose to believe Sansa's squeaky clean image but not Joffrey's? Sorry, but your access to POVs is clouding your ability to view the situation through the characters' eyes. Ned was the most noble, honorable man in the book, and yet the crowd still cheered when Joffrey called for his head.

Ned and Cat can defend Sansa's honor all they want, but the proof is in her appearance and the word of the prince. If there is even a question about her propriety, she can be disqualified as queen consort, no matter what Ned and Cat have to say about it. In order for Robert to follow through with the betrothal he has to call his own son and heir a liar.

They can't send guards to witness drunken predatory Sansa because it's a lie. She has to be alone with Joffrey. Sure, she may find some guards willing to risk their necks by lying to the king. but if one of them gets cold feet, Cersei gets caught red-handed. Much better to rely on Joffrey's word alone and dare Robert to say he is lying.

Sansa is betrothed to her son and Cersei will have to call her "your Grace" someday. She has nothing by contempt for Renly, nothing at all in common with Selmy and cannot even converse with Payne. Do you honestly think she would rather wile away the hours discussing mundane matters with these three, or sizing up the character and gaining the trust of a young, impressionable girl who will soon outrank her in the royal hierarchy?

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Whoa.

I never thought of that. But that's exactly the kind of twisted, disgustingly self-serving schemes that Cersei is known for. But I think it's a good sign that I never ever imagined that to be true.

I do think that Sansa had probably won over Cersei (as much as a person like Cersei could be won over) by the end of Game. Definitely by the time Cersei had The Talk with her in Clash.

I don't see how Sansa could have won Cersei over, certainly not by the end of Game and not in Clash either. She uses her, first to try to get Robb to stand down his army and then as a hostage to get Robb to rethink his war strategies.

I don't believe for one second that the beating Sansa got out in the bailey -- about as open and public place as there is in the Red Keep -- was done without Cersei's approval. Remember, the beatings were happening regularly until Jaime was taken, and then they suddenly stopped. Was this Joffrey's decision? Or Cersei's? Then on a whim Joffrey decides to make Sansa "answer for her brother's crimes", which are attested to, by the way, by none other than Cersei's new boy-toy Lancel? I don't think so.

I think Cersei would love to simply make Sansa disappear after Ned is brought down, but she is too valuable.

[BlackLightning]

29 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I don't see how Sansa could have won Cersei over, certainly not by the end of Game and not in Clash either. She uses her, first to try to get Robb to stand down his army and then as a hostage to get Robb to rethink his war strategies.

I don't believe for one second that the beating Sansa got out in the bailey -- about as open and public place as there is in the Red Keep -- was done without Cersei's approval. Remember, the beatings were happening regularly until Jaime was taken, and then they suddenly stopped. Was this Joffrey's decision? Or Cersei's? Then on a whim Joffrey decides to make Sansa "answer for her brother's crimes", which are attested to, by the way, by none other than Cersei's new boy-toy Lancel? I don't think so.

I think Cersei would love to simply make Sansa disappear after Ned is brought down, but she is too valuable.

Cersei can't be that politically inept: Sansa has always been a valuable political entity. Her value as said political entity increases significantly after Ned is brought down and practically triples when Bran and Rickon disappear.

Why would she wish to rid herself of such a person? As a matter of fact, she even pitches a fit in Storm when her father announces what will happen to Sansa. Remember the whole "Sansa is my hostage!" thing.

If Cersei didn't have some kind of affection for Sansa, why would she bother sitting Sansa down to talk about love and womanhood (menstruation) in the tender way she did? And that was well before the Battle of the Blackwater. Why would she feel so deeply betrayed by Sansa after believing Sansa murdered her son? If Cersei didn't care for Sansa, sure she'd be furious to learn Sansa helped murder Joffrey. But what Cersei feels towards Sansa is beyond fury.

And let's be clear: you can use someone and still have feelings for them. Look at Littlefinger. He uses Sansa all the time in so many different ways and he played Catelyn like a violin. But I dare you or anyone else to say that Sansa means nothing to him or that he never cared about Catelyn.

Who is saying that Cersei approved or didn't approve of those beatings. As a matter of fact, Cersei - known for thinking that she is much smarter than what she actually is - might have very well been oblivious until after the first beating had already occurred. The very reason why Tyrion is there in King's Landing as the acting Hand in Clash is because Cersei has little to no control over Joffrey. Sure, Cersei outranks him as the Queen Regent and is the one who should have true power in that regard. But the fact that an underage king could order Ned Stark to be executed on the spot and it happen despite the fact that the Regent was literally right there and clearly disapproved (even worse, the Regent was summarily ignored) tells us all we need to know about the power dynamics.

It's just that Cersei was too stupid and too proud and too much of a bad mother to really realize that.

That stunt Joffrey had pulled basically demonstrated, for all intents and purposes, that he was the King Regnant. The King Rex. A king who needs no regent or Hand to make legally binding, nation impacting decisions.

If it weren't for Tyrion, she, Joffrey and the rest of King's Landing power establishment were doomed. She needed Tyrion just as much as a knight needs a sword and shield. So it makes sense why Cersei, regardless of whether she knew about how Sansa was openly abused at court, didn't stop it. She couldn't and she knew she couldn't so she didn't even bother to fight that battle with her son. Hell, she could've even rationalized it to herself: "Maybe Joff is right. Maybe Robb Stark will rethink this war if he hears his sister is publicly stripped and beaten. They're probably already doing this to Jaime."

Since Cersei doesn't get a POV, that's one thing that the TV show does well.

[FictionIsntReal]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Ned and Cat can defend Sansa's honor all they want, but the proof is in her appearance and the word of the prince. If there is even a question about her propriety, she can be disqualified as queen consort, no matter what Ned and Cat have to say about it. In order for Robert to follow through with the betrothal he has to call his own son and heir a liar.

They can't send guards to witness drunken predatory Sansa because it's a lie. She has to be alone with Joffrey. Sure, she may find some guards willing to risk their necks by lying to the king. but if one of them gets cold feet, Cersei gets caught red-handed. Much better to rely on Joffrey's word alone and dare Robert to say he is lying.

Robert greatly dislikes Joffrey. He was grudgingly willing to go along with what he claimed happened at the Trident because the Stark sisters were in disagreement and all he had to do was order the execution of a direwolf (which he told Ned should be removed anyway as they're not fit to be pets). In contrast, Robert is greatly invested in this betrothal, and he's not going to break it up just because Cersei turned against it.

[Nevets]

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

And you can give me no reason to believe that Cersei, who trusts nobody on the planet, not even her own father or brothers, has complete faith and trust in Sansa and is fully on-board with marrying her co-dependent son to the daughter of a man she considers to be her most imminent political threat. Good to know. I will therefore consider this theory as being non-operative until such time as I am given a solid reason to believe otherwise.

So why doesn't she say anything to Jaime about her misgivings about Sansa in the conversation overheard by Bran?  She talks about Robert and Ned.  Why not Sansa, if the betrothal bothered her.  This conversation does, after all, serve as an info dump for Jaime and Cersei's opinions on the subject.

Why, after her son is apparently killed by Sansa, doesn't she have any thoughts about not wanting the marriage, or how her attempts to hurt her were  unsuccessful.  Feast is Cersei's high point in the series.  I would have expected any new revelations to come out then.  By now, her star is on a downward trajectory, both in-world, and in the series.

Also, there is a world of difference between being uneasy about someone, and actively plotting to harm them.  I prefer not to assume harm is intended absent a clear reason to believe that it is.  Which I do not see here.

[punzerknacker]

10 hours ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

But was she even thinking about the YMBQ prophecy back then?

Her fears only seemed to resurface and become an obsession in Feast.

We don't know if she was thinking about it, because we didn't have her POV. We also don't know at what point GRRM came up with this prophecy. I'm not 100% sure of the timeline, but I think she really starts obsessing over it after Joffrey's death because she sees it as the first part of the prophecy coming true, and believes that Tyrion did it and will murder her too. It's definitely possible that she severely underestimated Sansa (understandably, I think) and disregarded her as a possible candidate for the YMBQ.

[BlackLightning]

14 hours ago, Nevets said:

Feast is Cersei's high point in the series.  I would have expected any new revelations to come out then.  By now, her star is on a downward trajectory, both in-world, and in the series.

Actually, I'm not sure if I can agree with this statement. I think Cersei is on a downward trajectory but I absolutely think that the whole point of her arc is that her vicious, conniving personality will allow her to rebound only for her stupidity to get in the way and cause her to fall hard. Kind of like a rollercoaster except at the very end, the ride will crash and burn instead of just stopping.

She's definitely going to rebound in some point in Winds simply because Varys will want her back in a position of power; we all know this.

I don't know how her trial is going to go but she's not going to be executed. That's anticlimactic as hell. Mace will still be Hand and Margaery will probably be the Regent to replace Kevan. And so because Tommen is practically a key part in the Tyrell machine, I don't think Cersei is going to be rebounding as the Regent to King Tommen.

Now, as the Regent to Queen Myrcella? That's different.

When Tommen dies and Cersei gets rid of the Tyrells present in the capital, Myrcella will become the Seven Kingdom's first ruling Queen. Not that it will matter because JonCon/Aegon/Arianne are practically guaranteed to triumph. But for that period of time, Cersei will be the Queen Regent again. Rebound #1.

It won't take long for Myrcella to die though and Cersei will be forced to make a break for Casterly Rock at the end of Winds. Maybe it'll be when JonCon/Aegon/Arianne are at the gates (Blackwater 2.0) ...or maybe it'll be when Varys reveals himself and his schemes to her and he tries to kill her. Either way, it'll be a thrilling and maybe even hilarious chapter to read.

If Cersei survives and makes to Casterly Rock in one piece, she's set for Rebound #2 in Dream. Most people in the country already hate her. The number of people who hate her and the depths of hatred that they have are only going to increase. But in the West? I doubt they will know what kind of person she is. They may not even care. To many of them, she'll just be the older, fatter version of the girl that left to go marry Robert. She is Tywin's daughter and the West seems like it reveres Tywin.

So, Cersei will have a claim to Casterly Rock, Lannisport and all of the West as its Lady Paramount. And if Jaime somehow survives his ordeal with Lady Stoneheart and makes it to Casterly Rock too, then Cersei will only be the second most powerful person in the West.

In any case, from Casterly Rock, Cersei will be powerful enough to send "tokens of her appreciation" to Aegon, Sansa, Tyrion, Daenerys, the Martells, whatever Tyrells that managed to survive Winds, and whoever else she will decide to blame. Isn't the Iron Throne indebted to House Lannister? If so, Cersei can declare a trade war on Aegon and call in her debts as Lady Lannister. Money is money and numbers don't lie...so Aegon will have his hands full.

I don't know where she will die but I doubt she will ever return to King's Landing. Why would she? Casterly Rock is impenetrable. Which gives the Valonqar prophecy some more credibility: either she lets someone she doesn't consider a threat into her fortress, someone is able to sneak in or the valonqar has been locked up with her the whole time.

Basically, I say all of this to say that I think Cersei's high-point of the series will be at the very end of her lifespan. If she gets smarter with each rebound, her desire to become the female Tywin might have come true by that point.

[BlackLightning]

8 hours ago, punzerknacker said:

We don't know if she was thinking about it, because we didn't have her POV. We also don't know at what point GRRM came up with this prophecy. I'm not 100% sure of the timeline, but I think she really starts obsessing over it after Joffrey's death because she sees it as the first part of the prophecy coming true, and believes that Tyrion did it and will murder her too. It's definitely possible that she severely underestimated Sansa (understandably, I think) and disregarded her as a possible candidate for the YMBQ.

It wouldn't be the first (or last) time Cersei severely underestimated someone.

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Cersei can't be that politically inept: Sansa has always been a valuable political entity. Her value as said political entity increases significantly after Ned is brought down and practically triples when Bran and Rickon disappear.

Why would she wish to rid herself of such a person? As a matter of fact, she even pitches a fit in Storm when her father announces what will happen to Sansa. Remember the whole "Sansa is my hostage!" thing.

If Cersei didn't have some kind of affection for Sansa, why would she bother sitting Sansa down to talk about love and womanhood (menstruation) in the tender way she did? And that was well before the Battle of the Blackwater. Why would she feel so deeply betrayed by Sansa after believing Sansa murdered her son? If Cersei didn't care for Sansa, sure she'd be furious to learn Sansa helped murder Joffrey. But what Cersei feels towards Sansa is beyond fury.

And let's be clear: you can use someone and still have feelings for them. Look at Littlefinger. He uses Sansa all the time in so many different ways and he played Catelyn like a violin. But I dare you or anyone else to say that Sansa means nothing to him or that he never cared about Catelyn.

Who is saying that Cersei approved or didn't approve of those beatings. As a matter of fact, Cersei - known for thinking that she is much smarter than what she actually is - might have very well been oblivious until after the first beating had already occurred. The very reason why Tyrion is there in King's Landing as the acting Hand in Clash is because Cersei has little to no control over Joffrey. Sure, Cersei outranks him as the Queen Regent and is the one who should have true power in that regard. But the fact that an underage king could order Ned Stark to be executed on the spot and it happen despite the fact that the Regent was literally right there and clearly disapproved (even worse, the Regent was summarily ignored) tells us all we need to know about the power dynamics.

It's just that Cersei was too stupid and too proud and too much of a bad mother to really realize that.

That stunt Joffrey had pulled basically demonstrated, for all intents and purposes, that he was the King Regnant. The King Rex. A king who needs no regent or Hand to make legally binding, nation impacting decisions.

If it weren't for Tyrion, she, Joffrey and the rest of King's Landing power establishment were doomed. She needed Tyrion just as much as a knight needs a sword and shield. So it makes sense why Cersei, regardless of whether she knew about how Sansa was openly abused at court, didn't stop it. She couldn't and she knew she couldn't so she didn't even bother to fight that battle with her son. Hell, she could've even rationalized it to herself: "Maybe Joff is right. Maybe Robb Stark will rethink this war if he hears his sister is publicly stripped and beaten. They're probably already doing this to Jaime."

Since Cersei doesn't get a POV, that's one thing that the TV show does well.

This is pretty much what I am saying as well. She would love to be rid of Sansa if possible, but she is too valuable to throw away. Just like she would love to be rid of Tyrion, and probably Jaime for that matter, but she needs them and uses them at the same time. All the while, she has pleasant conversations with both her brothers, even kisses Tyrion at one point, all the while scheming to take them down.

The initial beatings stopped before Tyrion arrived in King's Landing and there are no more until after Oxcross. The timeline is a little fuzzy, but the beatings stopped right about the time word of Jaime's capture would have reached King's Landing. As Tyrion notes later during the bread riot:

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It Sansa Stark came to harm, Jaime was as good as dead.

Cersei can restrain Joffrey's impulses when they get too extreme, as Sansa notes on the way to Joff's nameday tourney:

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"Will the queen attend, do you think?" Sansa always felt safer when Cersei was there to restrain her son.

The beating at Oxcross took place in the lower bailey of the RK -- literally, the castle's public square -- in front of all the remaining lords and ladies, so it is very unlikely that this took place without Cersei's knowledge. As you say, Cersei cannot be this politically inept.

We don't know where the earlier beatings took place, but it probably was not at court. Sansa attempts to hide her cuts and bruises with powder and long sleeves, which would be rather moot if the whole court saw her beaten.

Ned's execution was a surprise to everyone, and Joffrey is, in fact, king. Tyrion would have been just as powerless to stop it as Cersei.

That Cersei thinks Sansa should be ever so grateful for all the wonderful things she has done for her is more a comment on her twisted mindset than her ability to love anyone. She is a user, and once she has used you and you are no longer valuable, she disposes of you, or at least tries to.

[John Suburbs]

15 hours ago, Nevets said:

So why doesn't she say anything to Jaime about her misgivings about Sansa in the conversation overheard by Bran?  She talks about Robert and Ned.  Why not Sansa, if the betrothal bothered her.  This conversation does, after all, serve as an info dump for Jaime and Cersei's opinions on the subject.

Why, after her son is apparently killed by Sansa, doesn't she have any thoughts about not wanting the marriage, or how her attempts to hurt her were  unsuccessful.  Feast is Cersei's high point in the series.  I would have expected any new revelations to come out then.  By now, her star is on a downward trajectory, both in-world, and in the series.

Also, there is a world of difference between being uneasy about someone, and actively plotting to harm them.  I prefer not to assume harm is intended absent a clear reason to believe that it is.  Which I do not see here.

Bran interrupted the conversation. It may have turned to that subject eventually.

Joffrey is killed long after his betrothal to Sansa was undone. Cersie's goal was already accomplished, so no need to second-guess it now.

And once again, I'll note that Cersei's objective on the Trident may not have been to hurt Sansa, just shame her to the point that she could no longer be queen.

Again, for someone who claims absence of evidence is not proof, you sure like to site a lot of absence of evidence.

[Lady Fevre Dream]

9 hours ago, punzerknacker said:

We don't know if she was thinking about it, because we didn't have her POV. We also don't know at what point GRRM came up with this prophecy. I'm not 100% sure of the timeline, but I think she really starts obsessing over it after Joffrey's death because she sees it as the first part of the prophecy coming true, and believes that Tyrion did it and will murder her too. It's definitely possible that she severely underestimated Sansa (understandably, I think) and disregarded her as a possible candidate for the YMBQ.

I think you've hit the nail on the head.  It seems the prophecy came to the fore in Cersei's mind after Joff's death, it's why she fought so hard to have Tyrion convicted.  Actually, it's Tyrion's escape and ability to further implement the curse that drives her crazy in AFFC.  She loses Tywin's protection, regardless of thinking she is as good as him, Jaime is becoming a stranger.......subconsciously she feels alone.  I think she underestimated Sansa and didn't think of her as the YMBQ. 

[BlackLightning]

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

This is pretty much what I am saying as well. She would love to be rid of Sansa if possible, but she is too valuable to throw away. Just like she would love to be rid of Tyrion, and probably Jaime for that matter, but she needs them and uses them at the same time. All the while, she has pleasant conversations with both her brothers, even kisses Tyrion at one point, all the while scheming to take them down.

The initial beatings stopped before Tyrion arrived in King's Landing and there are no more until after Oxcross. The timeline is a little fuzzy, but the beatings stopped right about the time word of Jaime's capture would have reached King's Landing. As Tyrion notes later during the bread riot:

Cersei can restrain Joffrey's impulses when they get too extreme, as Sansa notes on the way to Joff's nameday tourney:

The beating at Oxcross took place in the lower bailey of the RK -- literally, the castle's public square -- in front of all the remaining lords and ladies, so it is very unlikely that this took place without Cersei's knowledge. As you say, Cersei cannot be this politically inept.

We don't know where the earlier beatings took place, but it probably was not at court. Sansa attempts to hide her cuts and bruises with powder and long sleeves, which would be rather moot if the whole court saw her beaten.

Ned's execution was a surprise to everyone, and Joffrey is, in fact, king. Tyrion would have been just as powerless to stop it as Cersei.

That Cersei thinks Sansa should be ever so grateful for all the wonderful things she has done for her is more a comment on her twisted mindset than her ability to love anyone. She is a user, and once she has used you and you are no longer valuable, she disposes of you, or at least tries to.

Well, people talk. The lords and ladies who were present for Sansa's beating in the castle's public square certainly said something. There's no question.

Sansa attempting to hide her cuts and bruises with make-up and clothing is a moot point because many of the lords and ladies who watched her be beaten probably attend court on a regular basis. If they don't, someone who heard about the beatings or who was directly told about the beatings does attend court on a regular basis. They talk. And remember we're just talking about lords and ladies. Servants talk too, if not more than the lords and ladies of the court.

Ned's execution wasn't supposed to happen.

Joffrey is not of age and Cersei is Queen Regent; for the time being, she is the one who rules. Janos Slynt and Ilyn Payne, for all intents and purposes, should have obeyed her and not her son. Why didn't they?

Moreover, can you really picture Tyrion being just as powerless as Cersei in that occasion. The same Tyrion who finds a way to create a chain big enough to lock in an armada, who feeds his enemies to the poor people of King's Landing, who drugs his sister into temporary submission without her suspecting anything, who outed Pycelle as Cersei's squeaky wheel in the Small Council, who ran circles around Slynt before stripping him of his titles and lands and sending him to the Wall, who Varys deeply respects (and maybe even fears).

No.

Tyrion would've immediately seized control of the situation, having everyone retreat back into the Sept of Baelor until the crowds calm down and giving Joffrey a couple slaps. He might not have even held a public confession to begin with.

I'll go even further: if Tywin was there, do you think that Joffrey would have still ordered the beheading? Do you think that Ilyn Payne would have dared to follow through?

The weak link there is Cersei.

Cersei's ability to restrain Joffrey's worst impulses is - at best - a random 50/50 coin flip. Heads, she wins a Pyrrhic victory. Tails, she loses and shows her ass. Those aren't good odds (I think her power over Joffrey was on declining and weakening from Game all the way to Joffrey's death in Storm) and, for her to be both Queen Regent and Queen Mother, they were particularly shameful odds. But if I were Sansa, they'd be good enough for me.

[Lollygag]

AFFC Cersei IV

Will you? Last night Cersei had dreamed of the old woman, with her pebbly jowls and croaking voice. Maggy the Frog, they had called her in Lannisport. If Father had known what she said to me, he would have had her tongue out. Cersei had never told anyone, though, not even Jaime. Melara said that if we never spoke about her prophecies, we would forget them. She said that a forgotten prophecy couldn't come true.

 

AFFC Cersei VIII

Cersei did not want to hear that. "This maegi made certain prophecies. I laughed at them at first, but . . . she foretold the death of one of my bedmaids. At the time she made the prophecy, the girl was one-and-ten, healthy as a little horse and safe within the Rock. Yet she soon fell down a well and drowned." Melara had begged her never to speak of the things they heard that night in the maegi's tent. If we never talk about it we'll soon forget, and then it will be just a bad dream we had, Melara had said. Bad dreams never come true. The both of them had been so young, that had sounded almost wise.

 

[John Suburbs]

9 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

Well, people talk. The lords and ladies who were present for Sansa's beating in the castle's public square certainly said something. There's no question.

Sansa attempting to hide her cuts and bruises with make-up and clothing is a moot point because many of the lords and ladies who watched her be beaten probably attend court on a regular basis. If they don't, someone who heard about the beatings or who was directly told about the beatings does attend court on a regular basis. They talk. And remember we're just talking about lords and ladies. Servants talk too, if not more than the lords and ladies of the court.

Ned's execution wasn't supposed to happen.

Joffrey is not of age and Cersei is Queen Regent; for the time being, she is the one who rules. Janos Slynt and Ilyn Payne, for all intents and purposes, should have obeyed her and not her son. Why didn't they?

Moreover, can you really picture Tyrion being just as powerless as Cersei in that occasion. The same Tyrion who finds a way to create a chain big enough to lock in an armada, who feeds his enemies to the poor people of King's Landing, who drugs his sister into temporary submission without her suspecting anything, who outed Pycelle as Cersei's squeaky wheel in the Small Council, who ran circles around Slynt before stripping him of his titles and lands and sending him to the Wall, who Varys deeply respects (and maybe even fears).

No.

Tyrion would've immediately seized control of the situation, having everyone retreat back into the Sept of Baelor until the crowds calm down and giving Joffrey a couple slaps. He might not have even held a public confession to begin with.

I'll go even further: if Tywin was there, do you think that Joffrey would have still ordered the beheading? Do you think that Ilyn Payne would have dared to follow through?

The weak link there is Cersei.

Cersei's ability to restrain Joffrey's worst impulses is - at best - a random 50/50 coin flip. Heads, she wins a Pyrrhic victory. Tails, she loses and shows her ass. Those aren't good odds (I think her power over Joffrey was on declining and weakening from Game all the way to Joffrey's death in Storm) and, for her to be both Queen Regent and Queen Mother, they were particularly shameful odds. But if I were Sansa, they'd be good enough for me.

Again, though, there is no indication that any of the beatings prior to Oxcross took place in public. Otherwise, why would Sansa bother trying to hider her injuries?

No, Ned's execution wasn't supposed to happen. It took everyone by surprise and no one, not Cersei, nor Tyrion, nor even Tywin, can countermand the king's order. Cersei may be regent, but she cannot openly defy the king in public. It would utterly demolish his standing in the eyes of the realm. All of Tyrion's accomplishments you list were the product of weeks, if not months, of calculation and maneuvering. This was a sudden and unexpected move. The Hand speaks for the king in his absence; he cannot overrule the King's commands. Slapping the king in public? Tyrion would have been executed before Ned's blood was even cold.

Cersei's hold on Joffrey is weakening by the day, but at the time of Sansa's beatings she still has the ability to stop them, or not.

 

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Bran interrupted the conversation. It may have turned to that subject eventually.

Joffrey is killed long after his betrothal to Sansa was undone. Cersie's goal was already accomplished, so no need to second-guess it now.

And once again, I'll note that Cersei's objective on the Trident may not have been to hurt Sansa, just shame her to the point that she could no longer be queen.

Again, for someone who claims absence of evidence is not proof, you sure like to site a lot of absence of evidence.

I think you are missing the point @Nevets is trying to make. Steven, please correct me if I am wrong.

I believe he is saying that if the author wanted the reader to believe any of the assertions you are making here the author would have written something about it. There were plenty of opportunities for George to put it in a coversation or Cersei's POV.

Yet, he did not.