UK Politics: Royal Weddings and Referendums

[Chaircat Meow]

Apparently UK students will indeed still be eligible for the Erasmus programme post-Brexit.

THE - Erasmus+ exchange programme set to open to all countries in 2021

 

[The Marquis de Leech]

20 hours ago, Notone said:

I stand corrected, then he must be torn between Brexella and Brexetina. That must be really hard for poor JRM.

Brexula if it's a Soft Brexit.

(Yes, I'm sad like that).

[A Horse Named Stranger]

On 6/2/2018 at 3:57 PM, Chaircat Meow said:

Apparently UK students will indeed still be eligible for the Erasmus programme post-Brexit.

THE - Erasmus+ exchange programme set to open to all countries in 2021

 

Could still be eligible, not will be eligible. The article just states they want to open a bit further for countries outside the EU. However for UK students to be eligible the UK has to join the programme. That may very likely be the case, but it's not a certainty however.

 

Moving on.

The Tories have been way too quiet lately. Thus neglecting their political purpose of distracting me as a political observer from the Trump horror show in the US. Looks like some Tory donor agreed and put Gove's name forward as a successor to May. Mainlly on the premise of him being able to walk away from the negotiating table with the EU.

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Notone said:

The Tories have been way too quiet lately. Thus neglecting their political purpose of distracting me as a political observer from the Trump horror show in the US. Looks like some Tory donor agreed and put Gove's name forward as a successor to May. Mainlly on the premise of him being able to walk away from the negotiating table with the EU.

We haven't done any prep work for a no-deal Brexit either, so that claim's quite hollow as well. The consequences of crashing out of negotiations and then scrambling to hook everything up at the WTO would be interesting, to say the least.

I'm also not sure if your negotiating partner threatening to commit suicide at the negotiating table if they don't get everything they want, including 1x Moon (Stick-Mounted) is a good-faith negotiating tactic.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just now, Werthead said:

I'm also not sure if your negotiating partner threatening to commit suicide at the negotiating table if they don't get everything they want, including 1x Moon (Stick-Mounted) is a good-faith negotiating tactic.

You think the UK has thus far stuck to good-faith negotiating tactics? o_O

I think that ship has probably sailed either when Davis said, the UK could wiggle its way out of the agreements, or when May said no PM would ever signed up to the agreed backstop solutions regarding the Irish border.

 

[mormont]

Whatever Gove might do at the negotiating table with the EU is moot. He could not hold together the Tory party long enough to get on a plane to Brussels. Electing Gove as leader would collapse the Tory party within about five minutes. 

[Hereward]

Why? 

[Spockydog]

2 minutes ago, Hereward said:

Why? 

Because sooner or later someone's gonna sprinkle some salt on him, causing him to melt.

[mormont]

23 minutes ago, Hereward said:

Why? 

Because Gove is not only less of a compromise candidate than May, but is also less personally liked, has more enemies and is less trusted. (Which is not saying much for May.) 

It takes only a few Tory MPs deciding they can't stick the leadership to bring on a snap election. The handful of actual Remainers, moderate Brexiteers and people who just plain hate Michael Gove (probably the largest of these three groups) would be enough. 

[Hereward]

I'm not sure I agree. I'm not saying he doesn't have enemies or that he is trusted, but I'm not sure that matters. The next leader will almost certainly have to be a Brexiteer, and I think even Remainers know that. So, it's probably going to be Johnson, JRM or Gove. Johnson is more loathed and less trusted than Gove, and has lost a lot of his supporters to JRM anyway. JRM would be more likely to split the party. So Gove might well be the least of three evils anyway. Add to that that he is actually quite liberal, in Tory terms, on other matters, and that could win him Tory moderate support. Factor in that he has been softening his position on Brexit in a tactical way (see below), and that while the Tory Party has been flirting with self destruction for a while, almost none of them are stupid enough to risk handing the premiership to Corbyn by assassinating a newly elected leader. 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-think-tank-michael-gove-single-market-open-europe-negotiations-a8381451.html

[mormont]

I'm going to disagree with some of that, though I don't have your insight into the Tory part of course. But I think there is a significant enough number of MPs in the Tory party who would see the choice of Corbyn or any of those three as being a frankly impossible choice, and would be willing to gamble on an election, however a long shot it might be, changing the political ground enough to provide an alternative. Again, that really only has to be a handful of people among hundreds. 

I also don't see that Brexiteer as leader = one of those three options. I find it hard to believe that anyone in the Tory party not named Rees-Mogg actually thinks for one second that JRM could run a raffle, let alone the country. I know the party contains some people who are somewhat detached from reality, but surely not that far detached. 

[Werthead]

It's probably too soon and his Remain vote would be a strike against him (in some quarters), but Sajid Javid's stock appears to be rising in the party. He's acted - apparently - decisively in pushing forward changes to how terrorism is combated and on immigration quotas for business, whilst also sticking the boot into the EU over some of its rhetoric. If JRM, Gove and Johnson were all considered far too damaging to elect (and they all should be), Javid might have some stock, although I suspect Davis might be considered more viable as a known name and a Brexiteer.

[Hereward]

9 hours ago, mormont said:

. I find it hard to believe that anyone in the Tory party not named Rees-Mogg actually thinks for one second that JRM could run a raffle, let alone the country. I know the party contains some people who are somewhat detached from reality, but surely not that far detached. 

Trust me, if he could by some miracle get into the top two, he’d win the constituency vote by a landslide.

Davis has shot his bolt. His approval ratings, as reported by Conservative Home, have dropped like a stone. His supporters have mostly gone to Gove. 

Javid is a possibility, but I don’t think there’s much trust left amongst party members for former Remainers. 

[williamjm]

10 hours ago, mormont said:

I find it hard to believe that anyone in the Tory party not named Rees-Mogg actually thinks for one second that JRM could run a raffle, let alone the country. I know the party contains some people who are somewhat detached from reality, but surely not that far detached. 

This is the same electorate that once decided Iain Duncan Smith was the perfect choice to lead their party, so I wouldn't put it past them.

[Spockydog]

There's no way the Tories will elect a Muslim as their leader. It's not something the Daily Express or Daily Mail, nor vast swathes of the Tory base, will tolerate. He's only Home Secretary because May's Rudd-shaped meat shield had turned into a rotting, fetid carcass over Windrush, and her focus groups likely told her she needed a brown person heading up the Home Office.

 

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, williamjm said:

This is the same electorate that once decided Iain Duncan Smith was the perfect choice to lead their party, so I wouldn't put it past them.

Those keen purveyors of the political landscape, Ladbrokes, now believe that Rees-Mogg has a greater chance of being the next PM than Corbyn.

What would be interesting is how they'd handle the Conservative precedent - first established by their loud complaints over Gordon Brown inheriting the crown and then by May's snap election last year - of making sure the PM has the support of the country to be in post. Rees-Mogg would be a risky candidate to take into a general election, his ridiculous wealth and his investment company's Russian connections would let the press and the opposition make mincemeat of him. On the other hand, people know who the hell he is (thanks for that, HIGNFY, again), which goes a long way especially with Corbynmania possibly being a spent force (although that's been said before, prematurely). My guess is that they would avoid the question by saying that Britain can't afford another election now with Brexit to negotiate and, reluctantly and in the national interest, they wouldn't go back to the polls again to cause more disruption.

 

Quote

 

There's no way the Tories will elect a Muslim as their leader. It's not something the Daily Express or Daily Mail, nor vast swathes of the Tory base, will tolerate. He's only Home Secretary because May's Rudd-shaped meat shield had turned into a rotting, fetid carcass over Windrush, and her focus groups likely told her she needed a brown person heading up the Home Office.

 

Cynical, but potentially accurate. It would, of course, allow the party to push back on the accusations of Islamaphobia being made against the party (including by its own members), although Javid being in that post allows them to do that already. It would be entertaining, at least, to see Donald Trump having to deal with a Muslim PM and a Muslim Mayor of London next time he says something stupid in that field (which should be due by the end of the work, being charitable).

I suspect Javid's positioning himself for a campaign a good time after Brexit, though. Boris is a busted flush. I am surprised by the degree to which Gove has made a comeback though. Quite remarkable, given his untrustworthiness over stabbing Boris in the back.

[Yukle]

As an outsider looking in, why did the Labour party stick with someone who nobody seems to like? He has his supporters, but Corbyn gives the impression that nobody wants to work with him or for him.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

5 hours ago, Yukle said:

As an outsider looking in, why did the Labour party stick with someone who nobody seems to like? He has his supporters, but Corbyn gives the impression that nobody wants to work with him or for him.

well they have tried to get rid a couple of times, only for the base to re-elect him as their leader.

[SeanF]

12 hours ago, Spockydog said:

There's no way the Tories will elect a Muslim as their leader. It's not something the Daily Express or Daily Mail, nor vast swathes of the Tory base, will tolerate. He's only Home Secretary because May's Rudd-shaped meat shield had turned into a rotting, fetid carcass over Windrush, and her focus groups likely told her she needed a brown person heading up the Home Office.

 

The Conservative Party has sometimes been quite willing to think outside the box, when it comes to choosing leaders.

[Spockydog]

14 minutes ago, SeanF said:

The Conservative Party has sometimes been quite willing to think outside the box, when it comes to choosing leaders.

In order for this to happen, the right wing press will need to dial down the Islamophobia. Which wouldn't be a bad thing at all, though I can't really see it happening.