UK Politics: Royal Weddings and Referendums

[Hereward]

5 hours ago, Yukle said:

That makes sense. If I have this right: the EU subsidies were to encourage the sale of goods from EU to other EU nations. Is their any certainty that the EU will import UK food at a higher cost?

No, the EU subsidies were originally intended to prop up the French agricultural sector, not to encourage inter-EU trade as such. But no, the EU will probably not import UK food at a higher price. Preventing food imports from outside the EU is after all one of the original aims of the EU's forerunners. The UK agricultural sector will certainly shrink, though. It has grown during membership of the EU as competition with efficient producers outside Europe has been cut off by European tariffs.

5 hours ago, Yukle said:

Similarly, I am fairly sure the UK would import more food than they produce, anyway, so perhaps it's possible that food costs will rise if the EU isn't subsidising exports to the UK.

I think it unlikely that food costs will rise in the long-term, once the initial disruption settles down. The UK will be able to buy, as it always used to, cheaper food from the US, Canada, Argentina, NZ, Australia and Africa, without having to charge high EU tariffs, at least as long as it avoids customs union membership. Obviously, this will be controversial in some cases, such as US mass production techniques. 

[The Marquis de Leech]

10 minutes ago, Hereward said:

I think it unlikely that food costs will rise in the long-term, once the initial disruption settles down. The UK will be able to buy, as it always used to, cheaper food from the US, Canada, Argentina, NZ, Australia and Africa, without having to charge high EU tariffs, at least as long as it avoids customs union membership. Obviously, this will be controversial in some cases, such as US mass production techniques. 

From what I understand, New Zealand trade officials were very quick in getting hold of their London counterparts about reviving certain traditional understandings. 

(And for people who care about such things, it is also more energy efficient to produce lamb, dairy, and apples here, and ship it to the UK than it is for the UK agricultural sector to produce those items locally).

[Deedles]

Is This man totally dysfunctional? Seriously. I’ll admit to being a europhile, but understand reservations about the European project and in particular, the euro.

 

I grew up in Ireland in the late 80s and early 90s. I was just too young to vote in the GFA, but remember being desperate for it to work. Omagh was a vivid scar in the psyche the summer before. The border issue isn’t irrelevant. It’s peoples lives.

[Spockydog]

15 minutes ago, Deedles said:

Is This man totally dysfunctional?

He's unhinged. And it beggars belief that he's still in his job. May has as much backbone as a fillet of jellyfish.

[mormont]

37 minutes ago, Deedles said:

Is This man totally dysfunctional?

Yes. 

He always was, and still is. A racist, incompetent, arrogant, careless, vain, self-serving, blustering, antediluvian oaf who is not 1% as clever as he thinks he is, because he can't tell the difference between vocabulary and intelligence. I only wish he were atypical of the sort of person this government is appointing. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

10 hours ago, Yukle said:

That makes sense. If I have this right: the EU subsidies were to encourage the sale of goods from EU to other EU nations. Is their any certainty that the EU will import UK food at a higher cost?

The idea behind EU subsidies in a very broad general sense is, that the EU should be autarkic/self-sustaining with regards to food production and not be dependent on food from the outside. To ensure that farmers' get money and shielded from outside competition. The whole sector has grown way too big for the purpose of mere self-sustainability is obvious. And the EU will need to change the way it pays out subsidies, and as a side effect put the axe to it, as the farm subsidies are a quite chunk of EU budget. Whether they can reform it, that is a good question. I am quite sceptical of it. The farming lobby is quite powerful. And it's by no means just the French farmers. The German farmers will also fight tooth and nails anything that endangers their prosperity. Not to mention Poland, who also get quite a nice chunk of money from that pot. Accidently, I just met with my relatives the other day due to a funeral. :( I also quite briefly asked about the potential reforms of the subsidies, the reaction boiled down to this. The beauracrats are clueless. They think farming will turn back to the way it was some 50 years ago. If they cut off the funds, the following will happen. A lot of farms will close down, and big companies will fill in, and jack up the food prices.

How much of that argument is self-serving, and how much truth is to that, I really can't judge it.

Will the EU import food from the UK? Tough question, short answer no. Longer answer probably not. I think we touched upon that topic in one of the older UK politics threads. What gets into the EU from the UK are dairy products (a bit over simplified Irish butter, with NI farms providing the milk for the dairy farms), and sheep (and lamb) meat, if I am not mistaken. So farmers in NI must be thrilled at the prospect of going on WTO terms.  WTO terms is also the criticial thing to answer your question, of how much food will go to the EU. If the UK go out without a Trade Agreement covering the agriculture sector, this will happen. The agricultural products will be traded on WTO terms. WTO terms means, that there's a certain quota of agriculture imports going to the EU and the UK will get a share of it on WTO terms. The idea of simplying splitting those import quotas between the UK and EU and basically maintaining some sort of status quo was swiftly shot down by other WTO nations like New Zealand (I think it was NZ but could'Ve also been Australia) and the US. Who basically said, wait a second, the UK is not gonna get a preferential treatment there, if you try that we will bring this case before the WTO. So the UK would probably lose a share of their sheep export to the EU to NZ or Australia or whoever. Replace sheep with whatever other agriculture product is going to the EU from the UK.

The flow of food (and other goods) in the other direction is way more interesting. There are apparently some simulations of what crashing out for the UK means, they were floating around last week. Just google doomsday scenario + brexit Or in the word of a great American philosopher. So much winning.

[Werthead]

Arron Banks met with Russian diplomats repeatedly before, during and after the Brexit campaign and was offered the chance to invest in Russian goldmines.

Interesting to see how far down the rabbit hole this goes.

[Spockydog]

8 hours ago, Werthead said:

Interesting to see how far down the rabbit hole this goes.

Not very far at all, I imagine. Treason is the new expenses fiddling, don't you know.

[Yukle]

Hmm...

Corbyn's party is splintering under his leadership. It will be difficult to win elections in this manner.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/13/labour-jeremy-corbyn-backbench-revolt-75-mps-brexit-vote

[Spockydog]

7 hours ago, Yukle said:

Hmm...

Corbyn's party is splintering under his leadership. It will be difficult to win elections in this manner.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/13/labour-jeremy-corbyn-backbench-revolt-75-mps-brexit-vote

As much as I admire him, he's failing badly and has to go. Labour needs someone who can take advantage of the fact that we are currently governed by the biggest bunch of self-serving idiots since the dawn of time. Theresa May is quite possibly the worst PM in British history.

[SeanF]

9 hours ago, Yukle said:

Hmm...

Corbyn's party is splintering under his leadership. It will be difficult to win elections in this manner.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/13/labour-jeremy-corbyn-backbench-revolt-75-mps-brexit-vote

Attitudes towards EU membership cut across the usual left/right divide on economic issues.  That was only partially resolved at the last election, with some Labour Leavers switching to the Conservatives, being offset  by a similar number of Conservative Remainers switching to Labour.   Add to that, Corbyn has always favoured leaving the EU in any case, and some left wingers view EEA membership as being a barrier to the kinds of economic policies they wish to carry out.

[HexMachina]

3 hours ago, Spockydog said:

As much as I admire him, he's failing badly and has to go. Labour needs someone who can take advantage of the fact that we are currently governed by the biggest bunch of self-serving idiots since the dawn of time. Theresa May is quite possibly the worst PM in British history.

Not disputing your opinion here but have you anyone in mind to take his place? I’ve considered it a few times and I’m struggling to come up with a Labour leader I could feel enthusiastic about

[Spockydog]

Emily Thornberry would be my choice.

[Hereward]

C'est un plan terrifique, though only if Labour wants to lose the few working class white voters it has left.

[Spockydog]

41 minutes ago, Pierre Le Harceleur said:

C'est un plan terrifique, though only if Labour wants to lose the few working class white voters it has left.

What? 

[Hereward]

1 hour ago, Spockydog said:

What? 

Do you not remember the Rochester tweet that got her sacked the first time?

[Spockydog]

14 minutes ago, Pierre Le Harceleur said:

Do you not remember the Rochester tweet that got her sacked the first time?

I remember. She was wrong to resign. And if the Labour Party somehow ends up less reliant on the type of people who cover their houses in the flag of St George, that'll be fine with me. 

[Maltaran]

4 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Not disputing your opinion here but have you anyone in mind to take his place? I’ve considered it a few times and I’m struggling to come up with a Labour leader I could feel enthusiastic about

Ed Miliband's glorious return?

[Yukle]

11 hours ago, SeanF said:

Attitudes towards EU membership cut across the usual left/right divide on economic issues.  That was only partially resolved at the last election, with some Labour Leavers switching to the Conservatives, being offset  by a similar number of Conservative Remainers switching to Labour.   Add to that, Corbyn has always favoured leaving the EU in any case, and some left wingers view EEA membership as being a barrier to the kinds of economic policies they wish to carry out.

From memory he was in Parliament during the previous referendum on the issue wasn't he? And voted to leave then, too. At least he is consistent.

Weirdly, I'd say that his more socialist policies would probably favour remaining in the EU. One perspective of it is that if the workers are meant to control the means of production then removing national barriers to their movements across state lines gives them more power and their employers less power.

[Maltaran]

Not quite, he was first elected in 83